I don't understand leaving either Emaus or Loewen unprotected when there's room on the 40-man roster for them.  If the Jays don't want them, why didn't they just outright release them?  This isn't sour grapes or anything; I would actually welcome an explanation.  Neither one of these guys was blocking the development of an uberprospect, and I would think that Emaus would have value even if the Jays do have plans to sign a big name free agent or already have Lawrie pencilled in at third.

Whether or not Emaus becomes a major league regular, the process here bothers me.  Emaus COULD still contribute, and giving him away when it wasn't even neccessary to do so confuses me.  I just can't see the scouting department saying, "Let this guy go.  We can guarantee right now that he has absolutely no value to this organization."

Oh well.  Best of luck with the Mets, Brad.

So here are the actual 3 year average (2008-2010) stats for 2 very good fielding LF, prorated to 600 AB:

Player A:  46 SB, 18 CS, .293 AVG and .346 OBP

Player B:  48 SB, 12 CS, .297 AVG and .349 OBP

Player B is the better player, his name is Carl Crawford and his salary is over $20M.

Player B is the "optimal" platoon of Rajai Davis and FA Scott Podsednik.  Combined salary would be less than $5M

Do you see $15M worth of difference?  I don’t.

Yes Carl has more power but I’m not sure we need that.  His SLG was .454 whereas our platoon was .406.  Buying a $15M slugger should take care of that if you like.  Defense would be close, too.

For those of you that care about our pick-ups:

Roan Flores, 1B, 5'11', 175 LBs, Born 1990

.345, 5 HR's, 42 RBI, 220 AB with VSL Rays

Ivan Contreras, 2B, 5'9'', 155 LBs, Born 1987

.257, 0 HRs, 9 RBI, 167 AB at three different levels.

By exposing them in the Rule V draft, the odds are they'll be returned or if the Mets decide to keep him but don't him in the Majors, you'll get something back in a trade.  If you just release them, you don't get any return. 

If I squint hard enough I can see the good news in Crawford going to Boston: This should make TB a little weaker and with expanded playoffs maybe the Jays can squeak in ahead of TB sometime in the next few years.

JP is in the Mets front office right?  He still likes his guys.  I wonder if AA will just the Mets keep Emaus (ie send him down). 

I don't understand leaving either Emaus or Loewen unprotected when there's room on the 40-man roster for them.

I agree with Emaus, but the Loewen omission is quite defensible.  He is out of options.  If we add him to the 40-man, he has to make the club in ST or be available on waivers.  It is better to lose him in the Rule V than on waivers due to rights on the player if the claiming team can no longer carry him on their 25-man roster.

I appologize for anything inaccurate in my post on the Rule 5 Draft.   I was following the draft live-ish on River Avenue Blues and they reported Rone Salas not Rone Flores.

Miguel Olivo is working out a deal with Seattle or another team - his words.   That gives a top 'B' pick in the Supplemental draft.   Apparently Supplemental 'A' are ranked in order by the team that signed them.   'B' picks are then ranked by the same means.

Kevin Gregg is being sought after by Boston, Pittsburgh, Washington, Baltimore, Seattle to name a few.   Possiblity of a good Supplemental 'B' pick.

Scott Downs wasn't going to give us a 1st round pick anyway.

Contreras moves to AAA, while Flores moves to AA, as far as I could tell.   Each round, MLB, AAA, AA can go 3 rounds, but there rarely much interest in anyone past midway 1st round.

Griffin mentined this on twitter:

"JP and AA talked for a while in the back of the room after the draft"

Maybe JP is looking to keep Emaus in the mets system even if he's not on the 25 man.

Apologies for the double post but I'm hoping that AA will look to lock up Cuban OF Leonys Martin when he declares himself for free agency which will be apparently soon.

Some info on him:

http://soxbronzetitan.wordpress.com/2010/09/16/a-look-at-22-year-old-cuban-of-leonys-martin/

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=10253

And from ESPN writer Joge Arangure via twitter:

It's safe to assume that he will be soon enough, but Gonzalez is not officially under contract with Boston beyond 2011 at this point.

Say, can we have a Gone But Not Forgotten thread for new Mariner Miguel Olivo?

The Emaus situation is made even stranger by the Mets involvement.  You'd think that JP and AA would have largely the same impression of Emaus as most of their organization hasn't changed much.  And Emaus has only improved from a numbers point of view.  However, one GM saw him worthy of a shot on the active roster and the other didn't think he was worth keeping him around at all.

As for process forward, it is my understanding that if the Mets want to option him to the minors they have to first offer him back to the Jays for some nominal dollar figure.  If the Jays take him back, they can use an option to reassign him to the minors.    No one else should have a shot at him unless I'm missing something.  Really the only way the Jays should lose him is if he stays on a 25-man roster all year.

Nobody else has a shot at Emaus if the Mets offer him back to the Jays, but they won't.  NY has made themselves a very nice pickup.  I was really disappointed when Emaus wasn't put on the roster.  The guy has power, draws walks, can run, hits for average, and is just 24 years old.  Have a look at his age 22 season in high A, in a pitcher's league.  Put up an .890 OPS in his age 24 season in AAA, admittedly in a good hitters' environment.  I think Emaus is going to be a fine big league hitter.  I think it's nuts that they put guys like Perez, Lewis and McKoy on the roster ahead of Emaus.  No way are the Mets going to offer him back to the Jays.  Another disappointment in this offseason.

That Boston batting order with Ellsbury, Crawford, Youkilis, Gonzalez, Pedroia, Ortiz, Drew/Cameron, Scutaro/Lowrie is going to be amazing.  Lester and Buchholz have a chance to win a ton of games.  Even Lackey might win 20 with that kind of support and a good bullpen.  You know the Yankees are going to be adding Lee or other big name players - it's going to be very, very difficult for the Jays to make the post season for the next 5 years if they don't add another wild card team.

The Emaus situation is made even stranger by the Mets involvement.  You'd think that JP and AA would have largely the same impression of Emaus as most of their organization hasn't changed much. 

As for process forward, it is my understanding that if the Mets want to option him to the minors they have to first offer him back to the Jays for some nominal dollar figure.  If the Jays take him back, they can use an option to reassign him to the minors.    No one else should have a shot at him unless I'm missing something.  Really the only way the Jays should lose him is if he stays on a 25-man roster all year.

Emaus could be claimed by another team willing to keep Emaus in the majors if the Mets tried to send him to the minors.  Isn't that what happened with Bautista?

WOW!!! - All this hyperventilating over Brad Emaus - A player who doesn't make a wit of difference to

the future of the Jays - you would think we had left Kyle Drabek off the 40 man roster - reminds me of all the

whining over Collins & Pasternicky. I like Emaus and hope he makes it, but  his value to the Jays might have been

as a throw-in in a trade - AA's explanation that the team will probably require more than 3 spots with signings and

likely will have to drop others from the roster makes it perfectly sensible that emaus wasn't added - as a

previous poster noted, this is probably the best way of keeping emaus, forcing the acquiring team to keep

him on the active roster.

I've got a question or two or more for you, any you.  

Since acquiring a Catcher to share duties with / take over as primary from / not have Jose Molina play with J.P. Arencibia was so important, why did the Jays interest in Martin take so long to materialize - he was non-tendered?   Considering the catching market is getting thin, multiple years and $6.0+ MM per will be needed to land him.   If that doesn't work, who's next?

Since acquiring a First Baseman to be the DH and occasionally relieve / take over full-time from Adam Lind was so important, why is it taking so long?   Some very interesting players signed elsewhere.

Since acquiring a Closer and Bullpen help was a priority, why hasn't anything been done to fill the holes here?   After all, Yoakim Soria is also a K.C. Royal.   The actual market for what is sought is not that tasty.

What has happened to our need for a Third Baseman?   Especially some one better than E.E., and there's not much there.

How does A.A. justify almost 5 weeks of going after Justin Upton and Zack Greinke without success?   Why didn't these searches start earlier?

The Miguel Olivo signing and the projected signing of Kevin Gregg should give us "B" picks ahead of the John Buck pick.   We will have enough decent Supplemental Picks, plus two second round picks, to permit signing a Type A or two if necessary.   I just don't know if A.A. is willing to trade the people necessary to fill the holes that way, and I don't think he's willing to spend the $$$$$$$$$ to sign the people necessary to fill the holes the other way.

Taken the example of Russ Adams who was recently resigned by the Mets, I would recall his prospect rating and exposure even in Moneyball when he was drafted and starting his professional career. Not intended to rub salt on wounds, I think Jays fan regulars have been familiar with his rise to MLB and back as an AAAA.

While we're not rubbing salt in wounds, I can't help but remember that some kid from Toronto named Votto could've been drafted in Russ Adams' stead, but J.P. Ricciardi had no interest in drafting players just because they're Canadian.

Le sigh.

While we're not rubbing salt in wounds, I can't help but remember that some kid from Toronto named Votto could've been drafted in Russ Adams' stead, but J.P. Ricciardi had no interest in drafting players just because they're Canadian.

I think it's a pretty stupid idea to draft anyone because of the color of their passport.

I think it's a pretty stupid idea to refuse to consider drafting anyone because of the color of their passport, too.

I'm not suggesting that the Jays draft every Canadian prospect available, and it's definitely a fair statement that Votto was a lot further away from getting a chance to contribute than Adams, but my admittedly subjective impression of Riccardi's statement was that he would not draft Canadian players specifically because they were Canadian and he was scared people would think that was the only reason he drafted them.  That may seem like a ridiculously insecure way for an MLB general manager to think, but everything I ever read or heard from/about Ricciardi seemed to indicated that he put covering his own ass in front of every other factor when making baseball decisions.  The only moves that didn't fit this profile were the big free agent signings he made when his dreams of glory probably briefly eclipsed his bizarre need to portray himself as a victim in every situation that didn't work out in his favor.

...his comments such as, "If I'm fired, I'll get another job in baseball." attest to that...

Just like a pouty kid who lost the race, he never cared about winning anyway.  It's a pretty clear-cut case of overcompensation.  The guy who goes out of his way to convince you he doesn't care obviously DOES care.

With regard to Emaus, here is AA's quote on the issue from the official site.  Blame the scouts.

"We knew that there was a high probability that we would lose him," Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos said. "At the same time, you have to go with your scouts and your player development staff. I know it's a compliment to the organization when you start running out of 40-man spots."

Does anyone have a report on Roam Salas, the 1B from Tampa the Jays took in the minor league draft

After a nice 2009 season, he still was left in the VSL by Tampa? At 20 he's still young enough to have

hope  

I don't get the argument that PCL numbers are inflated, therefore Arencibia isn't a real prospect even with the numbers he put on last year. He was the MVP of the league, so are there no hitting prospects in all of the PCL?

Arencibia was the best hitter in a hitter's league.  It doesn't mean that nobody in the PCL can really hit; just that they just can't hit as well as their PCL numbers might indicate.

Also these tools that convert PCL numbers to MLB numbers people bring up, pretty useless tool, as it can't predict how good the player would be with 3 years of MLB under his belt.

The tools aren't trying to predict how good of a hitter he'll be three years from now, they're trying to predict how well he would've hit this year if given MLB at-bats.

---

As for the prolonged Ricciardi-bashing, I apologize.  I'll offer only this in my defence: I've always trusted people at their word when they have a history of speaking the truth.  Conversely, I suspect almost everything that comes out of a liar's mouth.

Parker,

Be carefull - this site is loaded with JP supporters and they'll never give up - As soon as AA builds a

winner, they will be an avalanche of posts saying that JP deserves most of the credit - it's just futile to

discuss the subject in a rationale way.

Matthew E,

Be careful.  This site is loaded with JP bashers and they can never let it rest.

   Source: Downs in agreement with #Angels - 3 yrs, $15M. Another $1M in incentives based on GF. Taking physical now. #Yankees #RedSox #MLB 7 minutes ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®

The above is a Kenny Ken Ken tweet.  Good news, though i don't understand why his girlfriend has to take a physical.

Be carefull - this site is loaded with JP supporters and they'll never give up - As soon as AA builds a winner, they will be an avalanche of posts saying that JP deserves most of the credit - it's just futile to discuss the subject in a rationale way.

I'm sure I will be considered a JP supporter for this, but I would argue that many people bashing JP are at least as irrational as you make the JP supporters out to be.  Most people who dare to say that JP was not an awful GM will not hesitate to agree that he had many flaws.  However, he also had many strength and build teams that would have been a contender in other divisions at least every other year.  And for many JP haters, JP never did anything right.  That does not mean he didn't deserve to get fired, he had two shots and didn't make it.  But it also means he was not nearly as awful as some people made him out to be.

If AA turns the Jays into a winner in 2-3 years, I don't think anyone will say JP deserves most of the credit.  That would have been true last year but not any more in 2 years.  However, it should also be allowed to point out that JP had a couple of draft picks late in his tenure that seem to be working out quite well. 

Be carefull - this site is loaded with JP supporters and they'll never give up - As soon as AA builds a winner, they will be an avalanche of posts saying that JP deserves most of the credit - it's just futile to discuss the subject in a rationale way.

Irrelevant since that's not something you've ever shown any inclination to do.

I would argue that many people bashing JP are at least as irrational as you make the JP supporters out to be.  Most people who dare to say that JP was not an awful GM will not hesitate to agree that he had many flaws.  However, he also had many strength and build teams that would have been a contender in other divisions at least every other year.  And for many JP haters, JP never did anything right. 

QFT

The above is a Kenny Ken Ken tweet.  Good news, though i don't understand why his girlfriend has to take a physical.

$1 million in incentives for a girlfriend taking a physical now...that is what I call front-end loading a contract.

Below is the order of the 1st round and supplementary round (essentially what is know this year as "the 1st two rounds").  The main assumption that I have made is that that all remaining free agents do not re-sign with their prior team.  I have also had to assume that no team signs two Type-A free agents (i.e. if the Tigers sign Cliff Lee or Soriano then Boston's 19th pick obtained when Detroit signed Victor Martinez would fall about 50 spots). 

The conclusion that I get with regards to the 1st two rounds (subject to change of course - but it will be close to this) is:

Blue Jays are in line for picks 21,35,48,57,61

Red Sox are in line for picks 19,36,41,50

Rays are in line for picks 24,32,39,42,43,55,60,63,64 (14% of 1st 2 rounds)

The sequence below takes into account 1st round order dictated by reverse order of finish and Type-A Free Agents who were signed by teams with unprotected picks.  It also takes into account supplementary order for both A and B Types are also dicated by reverse order of the team LOSING the player (not the team signing the player).  All Type-A players come before type B and all teams must be cycled through at least once before they can get an additional pick in either the A or B round as per my communication with person at http://riveraveblues.com/2011-draft-order/.  Below is the order of picks in the 1st and sandwich pick rounds.

1          Pirates - Protected

2          Mariners - Protected

3          Daimondbacks - Protected

4          Orioles - Protected

5          Royals - Protected

6          Nationals - Protected

7          Daimondbacks - Loux

8          Indians - Protected

9          Cubs- Protected

10        Padres - Whitson

11        Astros  - Protected

12        Brewers - Protected

13        Mets - Protected

14        Marlins - Protected

15        Brewers - Covey

16        Dogers - Protected

17        Angles - Protected

18        Athletics - Protected

19        Red Sox - V.Martinez

20        Rockies- 1st rounder

21        Blue Jays - 1st rounder

22        Cardinals - 1st rounder

23        Nationals - Dunn

24        Tampa - Crawford

25        Padres - 1st rounder

26        Rangers - 1st rounder

27        Reds - 1st rounder

28        Braves - 1st rounder

29        Giants  - 1st rounder

30        Twins  - 1st rounder

31        Yankees - 1st rounder

32        Rays - 1st rounder

33        Philies  - 1st rounder

34        Nationals - Dunn

35        Blue Jays - Downs

36        Red Sox - Vmart

37        Rangers - Lee

38        Twins - Pavano

39        Rays - Soriano

40        Philies - Werth

41        Red Sox - Beltre

42        Rays - Crawford

43        Rays - Balfour

44        Diamondbacks - LaRoche

45        Brewers - Hoffman

46        Mets - Feliciano

47        Rockies - Dotel

48        Blue Jays - Buck

49        White Sox - Putz

50        Red Sox - F.Lopez

51        Padres - Garland

52        Giants  - Uribe

53        Twins  - O.Hudson

54        Mets - Vazquez

55        Rays - Hawpe

56        Diamondbacks - Heilman

57        Blue Jays - Gregg

58        Padres - Torrealba

59        Twins  - Crain

60        Rays - Benoit

61        Blue Jays - Olivo

62        Padres - Correia

63        Rays - Choate

64        Rays - Qualls

CA: We have a pair which the Jays (in a building year) can live with...

I listen every time A.A. speaks (there's links everywhere, when he speaks).   I have yet to hear he's happy with Arencibia and Molina.   Molina, as our # 1 Catcher, should Arencibia falter, is a scary thought.   If J.P. Arencibia is good then maybe a 81 -81 game split with someone,better than Molina.   If J.P. is the real thing, then having a better catcher for 60-ish games, makes the team better.   I don't think Martin signs for less than John Buck did (3 years, $6.0 MM per year).   2011 may be a building years.   Are 2012 and 2013 also building years?   Having J.P. Arencibia and Jose Molina as our catchers means you have no other choice.

This site http://riveraveblues.com/2011-draft-order/ keeps very good detail on Draft picks, saves a lot of keyboard strokes.

Upton & Greinke: No one else has got either of them...

My problem isn't going after Upton and Greinke and failing.   My problem is going after Upton and Greinke first, before seeing to needs, it limits one's options.   Doesn't A.A. have Tony LaCavca and Dana Brown to start filling some of these needs.   We may not be able to get the piece or pieces we need this off-season.   We should try to get better, as best as we can.   We shouldn't settle for less when we don't have to.

Here's kind of a fun thing for you fellows to waste a good deal of time doing.  Sort of like an IQ test, whereby the answer may require creative thinking, which is, as you know, more taxing for many of us than just looking up some advanced stats to make somebody posting a BB opinion look like a fool.

Can you come up with a simple system which basically eliminates the lack of competitive balance in major league baseball today?

Now you may think that a salary cap is good, but expanding the number of playoff teams is even better.  So let's eliminate these options.  It's neither.

If you enjoy participating in this sort of discussion, then lets try to determine why Aaron Hill's average fell about 80 points in 2010 and what he has to do to correct his difficulties in this area.  May seem complicated, but if you're a student of the game, you should have seen the problem and had the solution before the 2010 all-star break.

Are the pitchers onto him?  Does he have issues with his swing mechanics?  Does he have vision problems?  Is his general approach wrong?    As he watches the ball's flight, is he experiencing perception issue(s) as micro-second by micro-second the pitch approaches the plate?  

Hints:  (1) Go to your advanced stats and check out Hill's 2010 GO/AO ratio vis-a-vis his 2009 stats. (2) Does pitch location(s) or changing speed(s) give Hill the most trouble?     

Jawol!  Standartfuerher Richard, S.S.

Your observations, Colonel, are far too thoughtful, practical and sensible for my favorite team.  Especially since the implementation of same costs money. 

So I don't think AA is going to follow your very sound line of reasoning.  He may end up outsmarting himself, you never know.  (But don't worry about his future.  He can always blame John Farrell.)  The British have a wonderful way to describe self-outsmarting; they refer to it as "being too cute by half". 

If you really think Ricciardi was an awful general manager and human being, I can't imagine why you'd be optimistic

about the state of the franchise now. Anthopoulos was his assistant, and several other people he hired remain in key

positions.

- I think Ricciardi was a perfectly competent,mediocre GM with some obvious strengths (very good scrap heap finder,

excellent eye for college BP arms) - Unfortunately,in the AL east that wasn't good enough - for me, he was the 4th best

GM in the AL east and his hubris didn't help. 

- From everything I hear, he loves his wife and kids, which makes him a very decent person, far better than yous truly

-Because one criticizes the head of an organisation as a mediocre talent doesn't mean that applies to everyone they

hired or acquired - i.e I think that George Bush was a disastrous president and horrible leader, but I'm sure that many

of the people he hired are outstanding individuals and would make good leaders.

AND finally, I welcome all the criticisms because I'm secure in the knowledge that Mr. Ricciardi's record, in all it's

glory speaks loudest: In eight long years, no rings, no playoffs, not even a pennant race - and that ain't changing.

The offseason is far from over, so let's wait then to see how the team shapes up - aside from the top tier talent

which we were not bidding on, I don't see that AA has missed out on any value players - I'm not paying $10.m for

Carlos Pena.  

I don't think Martin signs for less than John Buck did (3 years, $6.0 MM per year).

There is absolutely no way any team offers Martin a contract anywhere near Buck's.  No team in baseball is dumb enough to give Martin that kind of guaranteed money.

On another note, I wonder what it'd take from the Jays for the Rays to part with Longoria?  Would Snider, Drabek, and any other prospect of Tampa's choice get it done?

ramone

As I understand (& I'm no expert), it's a temporary baseball housekeeping procedure - Lawrie's contract was

acquired by the blue Jays and they have to assign it to one of their minor league clubs.

Regarding longoria - there's no way the Rays are moving him, he's young, has the most team friendly contract

of ant star player and apparently wants to stay in Tampa even longer - Also Tampa is a tough trade partner, usually

get excellent return in trades and will not trade longoria to a division rival unless it's a slam dunk win - no thanks

So, let's think of something interesting.  

1) Milwaukee is unable to sign Fielder long-term and may be shopping him.  

2) Wasn't a really good prospect blocked by Fielder?  

3) Would A.A. go after him?  

4) What would it take?  

5) Would 7 years, $140.0MM extention do it?  

6) Makes Toronto relevant again, Post-Season anyone?

Hi Chris

Thanks for acknowledging my comment.  I guess you didn't read the question too carefully.  It concerned competitive balance in MLB.    I'm not talking ladies beach volleyball, PGA, NFL, college hoops, NBA, NHL, darts, pool, soccer or guys playing poker.

Selig's Blue-Ribbon Panel said the lack of competitive balance was due to the antiquated MLB financial model.  The ten years after the 1994-95 strike, the 10 highest-payroll teams made the playoffs 60% of the time; the ten lowest-payroll teams just 12%.

At the start of the 2010 season, Vegas odds-makers had the Yankees at 3-1 to win the WS and had Cleveland at 200-1.  Of course, that's just the one year.  So I went back over the past decade, as you suggested I should.

NYY averaged 97 wins per year; CLE had 79.  NYY 2010 payroll was $206 million; CLE was $61 million.  NYY had won three league championships; CLE none.   Not to mention that a month from now, NYY may well be paying two former CLE pitchers close to $50 million per season.

When I ran this same discussion past a Yankee blog last March, the fellows over there said I was a "hater," a "parity pariah," and that I was "insane".  They said that Cleveland had exactly the same chance as the Yankees to win the World Series, if Cleveland would only handle its limited financial resources a lot more wisely.

Chris, thanks for directing me to that excellent article about Aaron Hill.  It doesn't address anything I mentioned about Hill.  Just a lot of advanced stats stating what all of us already know.  Sort of like a history lesson with no attempt made at problem-solving. The writer mentioned that Aaron was really "unlucky'.  That's helpful.   

My question is:  What was Hill doing differently to generate those odd stats?  And how can it be fixed? 

I guess nobody wants to tackle that one.  I shouldn't have to be the person to explain it, as I'm a newbie on this site and I don't know very much about baseball. 

NO! NO! NO! A thousand times no!

But it will make the Blue Jays relevant. Or maybe he meant elephant.

Can you come up with a simple system which basically eliminates the lack of competitive balance in major league baseball today?

In the last 10 seasons :

9 different teams have won the World Series.

8 different teams have won Lord Stanley's Cup.

7 different teams have won the Super Bowl.

5 different teams have won the NBA championship.

I am thoroughly amazed when people talk about the lack of parity in baseball and the need for a salary cap.

AL East odds:
New York even
Boston 3-2
Toronto 7-1
Baltimore 7-1
Tampa Bay 7-1

Who ya got? Since there's parity, hedging Toronto, Baltimore and Tampa should be easy money, right?

the odds are not reasonable for teams forced to operate with a lower payroll.

No such team exists, especially with the MLB revenue sharing, central fund, and equalization payments. These owners crying poor are full of shit.

But they can, far more often than not, buy a playoff spot every year, and thus a chance to win the WS.

Until another GM comes along with Friedman's business acumen and puts an end to it.

The poorest franchises, say the Pirates or the Royals certainly have had poor management, but also are unable to spend on the level of even mid-pack payroll teams.

Repeating falsehoods doesn't make them come true.

at little cost to the owners or players

I bet the MLBPA begs to differ with your thoughts on a salary cap.

Steinbrenner built the Yankees into the behemoth they are today, and every other team has a similar opportunity. The Red Sox, for the record, have made the playoffs in 5 of the last 8, but only 6 of the last 11. As for the 60% number, is that supposed to reflect something negative? I see that as a positive - even if you are a top 10 payroll vying for 8 playoff spots, your chances are only 60% (and presumably much lower if you remove the Yankees from the equation, which you should be doing). Also, what's the figure for the last 5 years? A quick look at 2010 shows 7 of the top 9 payrolls missing the playoffs.

BumWino, I heard numerous people with baseball backgrounds comment on the length of Hill's swing, speculating that the 36 HRs changed his swing a little bit and he got away from the shorter, more compact swing that got him to the bigs.

OK, Chris.  You convinced me with that vital information about the outliers.  You want them out of the equation, they're........gonzo.  Matter of fact, I know a great little ladie's softball league on Fantasy Island where NYY, Bos, Pit & KC could be playing next season.

The rest of the teams....oops!.....Philly's payroll's may be as high as $170 million next season.  Better back up the turnip truck again.  One more customer.  Then there's NYMets, maybe LAofA, etc. 

Good try, Chris.  Bad idea.

First of all it seems to me that "randomness" is the wrong word

I don't know, if every single year you can cut everyone on your team that you don't like and replace them with someone else who may be better, and every year you can "re-negotiate" every contract that's no longer in your favour, then eventually you're going to get something that's halfway good. I really like football, but the sheer volume of roster turnover in the NFL makes it tough to be a casual fan.  In three years your entire roster can be turned over (except maybe the QB, the one person on the team who isn't a faceless piece of meat).  This happens sometimes in other sports if a team is rebuilding of course, but in the NFL it is happening all the time to every single team.

92-93, why don't you just tell me why we shouldn't have an NFL salary cap/salary basement system.

Because America is a capitalist, free-market economy and for some reason people want America's sports to be monopolistic structures. Having a salary cap takes the money out of the players' pockets and puts it into the owners' - why would anyone want that? There absolutely should be a salary basement though, and it should equal some dollar figure north of the amount of money MLB knows that team is receiving from the various funds. There's no transparency though, which is why it was a huge deal this summer when MLB financial documents were leaked and it's also why when Josh Johnson was given a 4 year deal you heard rumblings that MLB forced Loria to spend some of the money. People need to remember that the owners have been screwing the players for over a century to the point of collusion, and a salary cap is going to benefit nobody but them. The NFLPA doesn't wield nearly the same amount of power as the MLBPA and their players suffer for it, mainly due to the fact that their contracts aren't guaranteed.

Really? Every other team has a similar opportunity to be located in the largest metropolitan area in the United States and have a rich 110 year history, including 20 World Series victories and 3-4 of the best 15 players of all time before the current owner bought the team?

Yes, that's what I said. Not sure why you felt the need to repeat it. Every team has a large surrounding area from which to draw its fans, and in many of the rural areas it can take just as long to get to the local professional team even if you live two hours away as it does for someone living in the NY metropolitan area. Using Toronto as an example, it takes less than half the time to get from Hamilton (which isn't in Toronto's metropolitan area) to the Dome than it does to get from Newark or Trenton to Yankee Stadium. Then there's also the fact that a significant portion of New York's metropolitan area can be considered Red Sox, Phillies, & of course Mets territory. Your citation of the Yankees' historical success is also puzzling to me - Boston has the 2nd highest payroll & NESN and has none of that success. Fans don't come to Yankees games because Mickey Mantle used to get blowjobs under the bleachers - they come because Derek Jeter is a legend.

There's a billion-dollar TV enterprise waiting to happen in Kansas City, San Diego or Pittsburgh.

The notion that there was a billion dollar TV enterprise waiting to happen in New York the 70s for a sports franchise that cost under 20m was equally ridiculous. If MLB is in markets that can't sustain themselves, then move out. But when Toronto is running a 63m payroll and are probably receiving over 40m just from MLB alone and you start talking to me about salary caps, you lose me right away.

At a boy, Mickey!

Learn something new everyday.

I actually like baseball's model, right now.  The simplest most effective change would be to go back to two divisions per league with two wildcards. 

But there's a good system in place to control the salaries of players well into their prime.  There's also an active market to flip these players for multiple younger players as they approach FA. 

I think there's a danger that slotting in the draft, an international draft and the revamping or elimination of the draft pick compensation system will reduce the ability of a team to differentiate itself by building a strong system.  The luck element of the draft will have a heavy influence at that point.

1. Adam Smith played cricket and rounders,
2. Alan Greenspan is a Cubs fan, or
   
3. it is not a business, but America's national pastime

But I'm pretty sure there are more mobile trees in my back yard....

Another J.R.R. Tolkien fan.

You are opposed to slightly overweight players?

Also, it has not been mentioned, but what baffles me a bit is the notion that moves ought to be made to deliver more parity to the league. I like watching great baseball, I like watching great teams, and seeing a team put together a dynasty is amazing. Sports aren't fair... and to strive for that seems to work against the vary nature of sport.

I'm on board with this.  When I was a kid, my school's intramural floor hockey league had a mandate from certain parents to make the game more accessible to the "always picked last" kids.  They introduced rules that certain kids were immune to offside calls because they couldn't run fast enough to keep up with the play, and certain kids' goals counted twice because they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn from five feet away.  Those kids STILL got picked last, because nobody who was any good wanted to win using a crutch.  All it did was convince those of us who enjoyed an actual competitive game to quit the league and start up our own.  Sports arent fair, nor should they be.

Sports arent fair, nor should they be.

Your analogy misses the point.  Everyone is still playing the same game on the field.  No one is suggesting that Orioles runs count double or that Kansas City shouldn't have to tag up on pop flys.  We're talking about an imbalance outside of the game on the field, an imbalance in the way teams are constructed.  To borrow your analogy, how fair would it be if when picking teams, one team got the first 4 or 5 picks in a row before anyone else? 

It will be truly amazing to watch a possible new Yankees dynasty with CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee heading up a rotation that also includes AJ Burnett, while 1B Mark Teixeira and 3B Alex Rodriguez bat third and fourth in the lineup.

I think you guys are talking about a different aspect or kind of fairness than that of the people saying there's competitive imbalance in MLB.

---

Your analogy misses the point.  Everyone is still playing the same game on the field.  No one is suggesting that Orioles runs count double or that Kansas City shouldn't have to tag up on pop flys.  We're talking about an imbalance outside of the game on the field, an imbalance in the way teams are constructed.  To borrow your analogy, how fair would it be if when picking teams, one team got the first 4 or 5 picks in a row before anyone else? 

Yeah, you're both absolutely right.  I just love telling that story whenever people are in favor of introducing more financial controls in MLB.

The unfairness in the draft is more about big-market teams' willingness to spend way above slot on signing bonuses than teams being unfairly awarded extra picks, but obviously this goes back to the whole idea that some teams generate a whole lot more revenue than others.

I still don't believe this is unfair, though.

While market size is an obvious concern, the Yankees and Red Sox don't just have fans within their market, they have fans all over the world.  This isn't just because they win (these days, anyway) - they also market their brand successfully by leveraging team heritage.  The Red Sox in particular have been successful marketing the "loveable losers" brand in the past with the Curse of the Bambino and playing David to the Yankees' Goliath.  Not every team has a rich heritage, but that's just a fact of life and I don't think the teams that are successful at marketing should be punished for it.

• Back when the Yankees were the only big-spending team in the division, I semi-seriously suggested that they should just be given an automatic bye to the playoffs. During the season, they could play a series of exhibition games to stay sharp - or they could play a 162-game schedule like everybody else. The logic here is that normal-spending teams would get to fight with people their own size - and baseball fans (and TV executives) want to see the Yankees in the postseason anyway (if only to see them repeatedly lose), so why take the risk of them missing out?
  
• Here's a way to possibly enforce competitive balance: when a team signs a free agent, they have to pay an extra amount on top to each of the other teams in their division - with the caveat that these teams only get the money if they actually spend it (so they can't pull a Loria and trouser the money).
• Break the leagues into Division 1 (big spending teams) and Division 2 (smaller market teams). You could have promotion and relegation between leagues. And one or more post-season berths could be reserved for the Division 2 league - can the underdog beat the big-spending monoliths of Division 1 in a short series? Tune in, viewers, and find out!
• How about a handicap system? If you spend too much more than your opponents, you start with -7 wins (or whatever). Let's see if the mighty wallets of The Bronx or The Fens can prevail if their opponents are given a head start!

• The essence of baseball is competition. If one or two teams get so much better than the others that games stop being interesting, attendance and revenue will dwindle.
• Post-season baseball, as presently played, is kind of dull (and this is not just because the Jays never get in). Games start late - so that the Pacific time zone can view them at the end of the work day - and seemingly last forever, due to longer commercial breaks and endless pitching changes and other not particularly exciting strategic manoeuvers. Playing baseball until midnight, Eastern time, is a frequent occurrence. Can this be changed, somehow?
• Adding more playoffs, if this happens, pushes baseball deeper into November. In many cities, this turns games into a travesty of The Summer Game.
  

Nobody is looking to punish the Yankees or Red Sox in an absolute sense for being successful at global marketing. Some people prefer a system whereby they do not accrue all of the financial gains of their success. However, since they would still be making money, and probably more money than others, for this venture, I don't see it as punishment.

TamRa, I would venture that the Red Sox are becoming more like #1B than a team that is just slightly ahead of the rest of the pack.

Putting a third team in New York is not going to divert any serious revenue from the Yankees. It may be worth doing to assist the franchise in question itself, but I seriously doubt it would make any significant dent in the Yankees revenue stream. People may go to the Brookyln Pirates games because the tickets are avaiable and affordable, they may buy a hat or two, but the YES model wil continue to function and the vast majority of fans will still watch and root for the Yankees.

Any real grip in the market would probably take a generation, and then I still think it would be a case of Yankees, Mets and Mets-B.

If your comment is meant to imply that since one proposition that was unrealistic occurred, all propositions that are realistic are possible, i fundamentally disagree.

By definition any proposition that is realistic is possible.

However, denying there is a structural inequality that is only growing between those two teams and the rest of the AL seems foolish

No one has denied this. The question is whether this inequality exists because other teams don't make the effort to create the same structure. And once you include Boston, that answer is yes.

Mike G,

I've been told that Hip Hop artists wear sports apparel to "represent" their hometowns, and when others outside the greater NY area adopt Yankee's apparel it's to display their affiliation with the East Coast scene of Hip Hop versus The West Coast scene.

I can't stand most of that music, but my wife listens to it for some reason and that's what she tells me.  It doesn't have anything to do with the Yankees being #1 or really have anything to do with the baseball team.

Also, the Red Sox do in fact appeal to the Irish demographic outside of Boston.  I'll always have a soft spot for Boston for that reason and I'm sure I'm not alone.  I don't think I've seen any other teams with a green line of apparel!

Now, I just did two things I thought I'd never do here.  Disagree with one of your posts, and talk about rap music. 

Where do I go for the data to help me with all that?

BB-Ref. I think you'll find that most stats at the player level can also be found at the league (AL, NL) level and at the MLB level.

More than that, I would like to know if there is a correlation between how soon in a count a player concludes his at-bat and how well he hits overall.

On this topic, and perhaps tangential to your query, I have always had a problem with how conclusions are drawn from number of pitches per AB.

Take two players: Player A swings and misses a great deal and Player B doesn't. Say each swings at the second pitch in an AB. Player A is likelier to miss the pitch and see his AB extended. Player B is likelier to "be successul" in ending his AB by making contact and putting the ball in play. Player A's AB will last more pitches. Does this make him a more patient hitter (which would be a likely characterization)? He tried to end his AB the same time as Player B, he just wasn't able.

I think that if you want to study this matter, you need to consider the frequency of four categories: pitches in the strike zone swung at, pitches in the strike zone taken, pitches outside of the strike zone swung at and pitches outside of the strike zone taken. I'm not sure if such data can be found for free. I know that this is the type of thing that shows up in Bill James' annual Gold Mines.

Regarding competitive balance in MLB, I've come up with an idea to achieve it in one fell swoop.  The concept is so simple that there could be something I'm missing entirely.  I'll just give you the gist of it.  I'm depending on you fellows to play the devil's advocate.

No salary cap is needed, but the disparity in team payrolls would tend to lessen over a period of time.  That's because my idea rewards baseball entrepreneurship completely and provides a disincentive to teams considering a dramatic payroll increase in order to be more competitive with the best teams.

Here's it is.  Everything is kept exactly the way it is right now, except a second set of standings is put in place.  The first set "Classic Standings" is what we have now.   The second set is the "Championship Standings".

Let's use the American League as the example.  The Championship Standings are based entirely on payroll.  Any team can have any level of payroll it wants.  No regulation (salary cap), no luxury tax, nothing.  

The Championship Standings of course exist on paper only and are used to determine which four teams make the playoffs.  Scheduling could remain much the same as it is today, although that would tend to favor Central and West teams over East teams.

The 14 AL teams are divided into four divisions; the division winner makes the playoffs.  Premier Division, 1st Division, 2nd Division, 3rd Division.  Three teams in two of the Divisions and four teams in the other two Divisions. 

A week before Opening Day, the teams submit their payroll numbers to the Commissioners Office.   The latter slots the teams into the Divisions.

On the last day of the regular season, there is a quick draft of six players to "equalize" the talent level of the four teams heading into the playoffs.  Any player on teams that didn't make the playoffs can be drafted.

3rd Division winner gets three picks.  One pitcher and two position players.

2nd Division winner gets two picks.  One pitcher and one position player.

1st Divsion winner gets one pick.  Either one pitcher or one position player.

Premier Division winner does not draft any players, only watches in dismay.

If KC won the 3rd Division, for example, the team could pick up, say, Seattle's ace starter, Boston's Crawford and Minnesota's Mauer, which would give them a much better chance of defeating the Yankees, for example, in the playoffs.

Where's the flaw(s) in this?  Other than the two years we'd be without baseball while the players were out on strike.  Players say league parity is important, but the Players Association always votes against it.  Parity tends to limit salaries.

Notes:  (1) Teams can't exceed their Opening Day payroll.  (2) Players on DL don't count against payroll, but their replacements do.  (3) Team "promotion" and "relegation" would add interest.  Div. 1, 2 and 3 winners move up to the next Division, while the worst teams in Div. Premier, 1 and 2 would move down the following season. 

I'm sure many of you will think that this idea is "insane".  Yankee fans certainly thought so.  But it goes along way toward instantly restoring parity (fairness) and it doesn't cost 10 cents to institute. 

BumWino

count me in the "insane idea" camp.

I don't mind the current system as is - baseball is the one sport where you can build a contender using many

different models - and the fact that you can find an Albert Pujols so late in the draft or so many teams can pass

on Mike Trout makes it more interesting.

A couple of tweaks I wouldn't mind:

-Arbitration cases completed by December, so teams can walk away(ala NHL) and make player FA

-ability to trade draft choices ( can't trade 1st. rd. pick in consecutive yr. unless receive 1st. rd. pick back)

-  Teams can buy out longterm contracts at some fixed percentage (say 70%)

-The same limit that exist regarding the maximum that you can cut a player's salary in arbit. (20%), should

  also be the maximum raise a player can achieve in arbit.

Baseball doesn't need a Cap, it needs a Floor most of all.   I recommend $65.0 MM as a minimum.

Most G.M.s are too stupid or too lazy to consider the implications of trading a draft pick.    I am utterly opposed to any such idea for that reason alone.

I am not in favor of any realignment, until Toronto gets into the post-season under Alex Anthopoulos.   We might as well see if he's right.

I would institute a Luxury Tax Cap at $125.0 MM.     $2.00 for each $1.00 over the Cap under to $.01 less than $150.0 MM.     $3.00 for each $1.00 over the Cap under to $.01 less than $175.0 MM.     $4.00 for each $1.00 over the Cap under to $.01 less than $200.0 MM.     $5.00 for each $1.00 over the Cap under to $.01 less than $225.0 MM.     $10.00 for each $1.00 over that Cap level.     Yankees want to spend $250.0 MM - under this system they'd pay $600.00 MM in luxury tax!

I would eliminate interleague play, it cheapens the All Star Game and removes some of the mystery of the Post-Season.   Balancing the schedule means more West Coast trips each season, and receiving less revenue for fewer Yankee and Red Sox games.

Moderation, my friends, moderation in all things, including moderation.

it cheapens the All Star Game

Well, THAT'S momumentally hard to do, even with all the "this time it counts" crapola ....

85bluejay

I cheerfully defer to your superior baseball wisdom and knowledge. 

Your opinion that my idea is insane, because you "don't mind the current system as is" certainly works for me. 

You see, I'm a contemporary Luddite who believes that the Earth is still flat.  And any sort of change is at best, nerve-wracking, and at worst, downright dangerous.  Anything could happen.

Baseball doesn't need a Cap, it needs a Floor most of all.   I recommend $65.0 MM as a minimum

This is a terrible idea... playing young players, who are cheap, is a perfectly legitimate strategy for a baseball team. The National's shouldn't have to spend 20 million a year on Jayson Werth to get above a salary floor.

Wait...

moderation in all things

Except for hyperbole. And HTML tags.

I wouldn't mind seeing 2 divisions with the top team in each division plus 2 wildcards making the playoffs. Also eliminating interleague play would be good IMO.

Agree with this.  I don't understand why we went to three divisions to begin with.  While it may not be the simplest solution, it is likely the least "radical".

Oh and while we're at it, lets get rid of pitchers hitting and DH's.  Let's go to the 8-man batting lineup.

I guess given all the philosphizing there isn't a lot going on.  mlbtraderumours.com reports today:

The Blue Jays and Nationals have been actively pursuing Greinke, and the Jays theoretically do have the players to pull off a deal if the righty's no-trade clause can be addressed.  However, ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted on Saturday that the Blue Jays "have no intention of giving up Kyle Drabek and Travis Snider" for Greinke.

Mylegacy

Thanks, eh. 

My Dad graduated university at 19, my dear old Mom had her masters in English Lit, and my lawyer son is a certified Mensa genius.  Somehow I got left out.  So I don't blame you for being surprised at my conjuring up an original idea, albeit a rather off-the-wall concept, to fix major league baseball.

Now I have to fix LPGA golf.  They want to enhance their TV ratings.  I thought if the golf babes wore thongs like the beach volleyball girls that that would do the trick.  Their reaction?  They told me idea was...bottom of the barrel and that my mind had obviously...gone south, and that I had become the...butt of jokes in LPGA circles, and that they were going to send me...back to the...rear of the class until I could come up with a brilliant idea to...rectify the situation.  Bummer.  

Love those Studebakers and Edsels!  Er, I was a Packard man, myself. 

Have a good one, my brother.

Here's the scouting report that would have appeared with our Brewers Top 10 had Lawrie stayed put (this is the report they wrote on lawrie that won't now get posted since he changed teams):

The Brewers put Lawrie on the fast track in 2010 by assigning him to Double-A Huntsville at age 20, making him the second-youngest regular in the Southern League. Very confident to the point of cockiness, he was anything but intimidated and got better as the season progressed and he adjusted to the higher level of competition. He led the league in runs (90), hits (158), triples (16) and total bases (250). Lawrie has very strong hands and a quick bat, allowing him to wait on pitches and drive the ball to all fields. He's not a prolific home run hitter but piles up extra-base hits by shooting the ball into the gaps. Lawrie needs to balance his aggressiveness with more plate discipline, however. Though he stole 30 bases, he was caught 13 times and his speed is just average. Lawrie has smoothed out some of his rough edges in the field but still must work on making his hands softer, as evidenced by the 25 errors he committed in 131 games at second base in 2010. He has solid arm strength but may not have the first-step quickness to remain at second. He won't have to be a Gold Glove defender because his bat will get him to the big leagues and keep him there. If he has to move to an outfield corner, he'll still provide enough offense to profile as a quality regular.

Perhaps more happy-making:

The Blue Jays may be the team best equipped to make a trade for Greinke. The Royals' biggest need is up-the-middle talent, which Toronto has. Though the Jays reportedly won't include Drabek in any deal, they could build an offer around a combination of Lawrie, a catcher (Travis d'Arnaud, who might be the best catching prospect in the minors, or J.P. Arencibia) and...

You guys aren’t seeing the big elephant in the room ……. mlb is “better off” if the Yankees are consistently good. Basically every suggestion I’ve read on how to fix the CBA makes it more difficult for the Yankees to sustain their success. I know Jay’s and O’s fans don’t want to hear it, but it’s the truth. The Yankees are the biggest TV, Attendance, and Merchandise draw in baseball.

MLB flourished from 1965-1975 after the Yankee dynasty crumbled.  I doubt very much that it would be any different if today's version of the Yankee dynasty crumbled, as unlikely as that is to occur.

I’m not making the argument MLB would collapse if the Yankees morphed into the O’s and become irrelevant for 10+ years, but I am making the argument, overall revenues might dip. The ratings and overall interest for the World Series usually drops when the Yankees aren’t in it. If the Yankees became the O’s, not only would their home attendance drop but also road attendance too. You can also throw in TV Ratings and Merchandise sales going down. I guess one could argue another team could just step in and be the new Yankees, but the tradition and market size of New York would make this extremely difficult.

Or if the market for TV advertisements, naming rights and PSLs dries up in a hurry. Youneverknow. Popularity and revenue aren't one and the same - revenue could diminish while people still love watching baseball as much as ever.

I can't help but feeling the Jays offseason is being held up by the Lee signing.  I get the feeling they wanted to let the Greinke situation play out before addressing any needs on offense.  I'm just not sure I understand the interest in Grienke.

FWIW, Heyman and Curry don't think the Yanks will go after Grienke now, but I think the Rangers will.  If I were an evil empire, I think I'd go after Josh Johnson.

Does this impact AA's thinking?     HOWEVER, don't lose all the key work horses on the farm - literally - to do it.   Balance .

This is the window of opportunity, I was waiting for.   Cliff Lee doesn`t sign with the Yankees and doesn`t sign in the A.L.   Our starters are good enough, our bullpen isn`t.   It`s important now, who is our Closer, our Third Baseman, Our D.H. and our Backup - Associate Catcher.

1) Between Travis Snider and J.P. Arencibia, I would prefer to trade J.P. Arencibia.   Of course, signing Russell Martin gains significance.   If Martin signs (3years), Jose Molina for Backup Catcher year one, Brian Jeroloman for Backup Catcher for 2 more years.   By that time one of Carlos Perez, Travis d'Arnaud or A.J.Jimenez will be ready.   (I don't think J.P. Arencibia would be here much longer should one of three be ready.   If not, then A.A. must review his assestments on evaluating catching talent).  

2) Between Kyle Drabek, Brett Lawrie and Zachary Stewart, I would choose to trade Brett Lawrie.    And...maybe...Stewart.   It seems keeping Kyle Drabek is a priority.  

3) Between Darin Mastroianni, Anthony Gose and Jake Marisnick, one I would trade.   Which one...Gose.  

Oh My!...Catcher...Second Base...Centerfield...isn't that what K.C. wants?   We could get Zach Greinke before any other challenger for the Wild Card.   Or we could go for Yoakim Soria, probably the best Closer we could try for.   Or we could go for both...and asks for Alex Gordon.  

IMO...Greinke gives us a Pitching Staff as good as any Team in the A.L., whether or not he signs an extention.   (This is a WOW).   But we don`t need him.   We need Soria to lock down victories for our Starters.   (This is a WOW).   With a Free Agent Reliever signed and 4 or 5 of our best, we`ll have as good as needed to make a run.   Doing both gives a jump start on developing the Team A.A. is after.   We will develop our own Aces, in possibly Morrow and Drabek, but they don`t have to be rushed to do so.   We will develop top relief arms without rushing one to be a closer.

We need to be as good as we can be, because we`ve got a good chance at the post-season this year.   Let`s see what happens.

Maybe this is an opportunity for the Jays but I would not get into a bidding war for Greinke - patience is a virtue.

I would gets some ducks in line that doesn't significantly affect my plan  - Signing Russell Martin would be a start,

along with Jesse Crain to close, Ordonez to play RF/DH and maybe a LH (Delgado) to DH. Then, wait to see what

Yankees and Texas do - if they get into a bidding war and acquire Greinke, I've lost no assets. Come end of Jan/Feb

if Greinke is still with KC and Yankees pitching hasn't significantly improved , then I would try to acquire Greinke with

a package around Stewat/Arencibia/Hech/Mast.  or something similar - but I wouldn't go overboard and wouldn't

include Drabek/Snider or Lawrie.

Against RH                            Against LH

Escobar                                 Davis

Ordonez                                 Escobar

Bautista                                 Bautista

Lind                                        Ordonez

Wells                                      Wells   

Delgado(veteran LHer)       Lind

Hill                                           Hill

Snider                                    Snider

Russell                                 Russell

So again, I set myself up for an opportunity without mortgaging the future and only if the Yankees have not improved

their pitching significantly and while still keeping my A-list prospects make a play for Greinke just before spring

Training - it's a long shot but by then most clubs would have spent their bullets and KC needs to move Greike as

he would be a season long distraction (sorta like how the Mets acquired Santana)     

J.P. Arencibia will be:

1) The Real Thing: who catches 100-ish games, with Jose Molina as the Backup Catcher catching 60-ish games; or,

2) Good, but needs experience: and catches 81 games while Associate Catcher, Jose Molina, catches the other 81 games; or,

3) Good enough to stay, but needs a lot of work to get better: catches 60-ish games, while Primary Catcher, Jose Molina catches 100-ish games; or,

4) A Disaster: and is sent down, with Jose Molina and someone named WHO as the other catcher. 

Russel Martin is the best option to replace Jose Bautista (and I don't think A.A. explained his chance here in enough detail or made a decent enough offer).   Gerald Laird http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/cardinals-reach-agreement-with-gerald-laird.html was an alternative if Martin doesn't sign; as is Josh Bard http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/2011-mlb-free-agents.html .   No one else is worth bothering about, even if 4) happens, and you can't guarantee it won't.

The chances of the wild card coming out of the AL East have decreased.

The Yankees won 95 games without Lee last year. It's not like they lost him or anything.

Exactly. I am surprised that people think that Lee signing with Philadelphia alters anything in the AL East or that the Jays now only have to contend with Boston IF they sign players X, Y and Z. Considering how thorough Anthopoulos has shown himself in all of his dealings, does anyone really believe that he and the Jays brass were short-sighted enough to believe that Lee's only landing spot would be New York and that they would not have planned for multiple scenarios. Furthermore, the start of the season is month's away and it would be foolhardy to assume that the Tampa Bay and New York rosters will be the same on opening day as they are on December 14th. It is not like anyone is going to confuse Friedman or Cashman with Bavasi....

The Yankees won 95 games without Lee last year. It's not like they lost him or anything

Aside from C.C., Toronto with Romero, Morrow, and Cecil are better pitchers than any other of N.Y.'s Starters, even if Pettitte returns.   The Bullpen is ... A.A. is not done yet; N.Y. should win.

Let's say Jose Bautista is at 3B next season, compared to A-Rod and his bad hip, we win, offensively and defensively.   However Bautista may start in R.F., then N.Y. may win - A.A. is not done yet.

Let's compare Escobar and Jeter, we win, offensively and defensively.   For all the Gold Gloves Jeter's won, he sucks defensively since Day One.

Let's compare Hill and Cano. If Hill has a season much closer to 2009 than 2010, then it's too close to call, otherwise N.Y. wins.

Let's compare Tex and Lind.   If Lind has a season much closer to 2009 than 2010, then it's close offensively with N.Y. winning defensively, otherwise N.Y. wins both.

Let's compare Outfields, with Bautista in R.F., I think we win both offensively and defensively.

Posada is D.H....A.A. is not done yet.  

Who's catching for N.Y.?...A.A. is not done yet.

As for comparing the balance of the Benchs, N.Y. can spend $40.00 MM on that if needed, so they should win.

I would be very surprised if N.Y. makes the Post-Season next year, let alone win 90 or more games.

Paul D

With the offense N.Y. had last year, either you or a  monkey in N.Y. pinstripes could pitch as well as Hughes.   After all he had Rivera as a closer while we had an adventure called Gregg.

You must be an A-Rod fan, because anyone else would say Bautista was better than A-Rod in 2010, and will be from this point on.   Example:

Obviously Bautista was better in 2010 but I don't see how you come to that concrete conclusion going forward. 92-93 is right in his point that it is certainly a possibility given health and age. Consider though for a moment that even with Bautista fashioning a historic season (considering his previous career numbers), it was a season that at least according to WAR would rank as Rodriguez's 9th best. Rodriguez is one of the best players to have played this game. Again, it is a possibility but nothing near a given. How possible likely depends almost entirely on Rodriguez's health.

With the offense N.Y. had last year, either you or a  monkey in N.Y. pinstripes could pitch as well as Hughes.

What bearing does a team's offense have on the way someone pitches? The team's defense certainly plays a role, but its offense???

Blanton is just good enough to hang onto a regular rotation spot for the Yankees. He's exactly who I want to see in that role.

I prefer to hope for the success of Rzepczynski & Litsch rather than penciling in Drabek & Stewart into their spots. Heading into 2010, here's a comparison of Marcum & Litsch and their pre-TJ stats.

Marcum 24-17 396ip 3.95era 1.283whip 8.3 H/9 1.4 HR/9 3.2 BB/9 7.1 K/9
Litsch 20-19 296ip 3.83era 1.297whip 9.4 H/9 1.2 HR/9 2.3 BB/9 4.8 K/9

If your starters are all rolling along and you need to open up innings for a prospect you can always find trade value for cost-controlled young starting pitching, even if the ceiling is limited. Let's not just hand the job to Drabek & Stewart though, especially Zach who most of us presumably haven't seen.

 I must preface all my remarks with: A.A. is not done yet.

I agree Marc Rzepczynski and Jesse Litsch should fill the openings in the Rotation for theses two reasons:

1) Kyle Drabek and Zachary Stewart should start the season in AAA, Las Vegas.   It is difficult to pitch in the PCL, with Las Vegas as Home Field.   If they can pitch well here, then they should be in the bigs.   If they can't pitch well here, why should they be in the bigs?   Until they show they can pitch in the PCL, they don't come up until called / needed.

2) You still have to find out how good Rzepczynski and Litsch are.   You must know if you are keeping them because they're good enough to keep or too bad to trade.   Come July, you're either going for it, or you're be a supplier for those who are.   You need to know if they can be traded in July, August or earlier, you must establish value.

Who should be the first call-ups?   Not Drabek and Stewart, they haven't proved anything yet.   I would call Brad Mills, then Scott Richmond, then Robert Ray.   You must establish value, you need to know what they can do.   I think Mills, Richmond and Ray may do well in the N.L., let's find out.

Tex: .850 OPS in down year  starting the post-prime decline?
Cano: .915 OPS  career year?
Jeets: Bounce back to .290/.360/.410 likely  bouncebacks are likely at 39?
ARod: .850 OPS in down year  continuing the post-prime decline?
Gardner: Martha Stewart skill at table setting  even Martha spent a season in the cellar!
G'son: worst starter, imo, still OPS'd .790  career year against lefties?  fluke?
Swish: very quiet 30 hr, .870 OPS  blip in post-prime decline?
Posada: .810 ops won't play for long at DH, but still decent.  bat speed suspect for oldtimer.

Just playing devil's advocate.  But while I wouldn't expect a bad season from the Yankees, I feel that the potential is getting larger every year.  And that's due to an aging lineup.  I sure hope that Montero, Banuelos and Betances are "all that" and a bag of chips.

Marc Rzepczynski was drafted 5th round of 2007 and pitched 45.2 innings in Short-Season A (Auburn).  He was pitching 61.1 innings with Toronto in 2009.   That's fast.

Brad Mills was drafted 4th round of 2007 and pitched 18.0 innings in Short-Season A (Auburn).   He pitched 7.2 innings with Toronto in 2009.   That's fast.

Brett Cecil was drafted 1st round (38th) of 2007 and pitched 49.2 innings in Short-Season A (Auburn). He pitched 93.1 innings with Toronto in 2009.   That`s fast.

Brandon Morrow was drafted 1st round (5th) of 2006 and pitched 13.0 innings in Rookie and 3.0 innings in High A. He pitched 63.1 innings with Seattle in 2007.   That really fast.

Jesse Litsch was drafted 24th round of 2004, but didn`t pitch until 2005, 65.2 innings in Rookie and 10.0 in Short-Season A (Auburn). He pitched 111.0 innings with Toronto in 2007.   That`s fast for 24th round pick, but not otherwise.