If Marcum is traded for prospects that are a year or two away, why?  The Jays have lots of pitching prospects and if they were going to trade a starter I would have thought they would get back a position player.

Could this trade setup another one?  Greinke perhaps?

One other thing.  We keep hearing that starting pitching is very valuable.  Marcum is a starter who has proved himself in the AL East so he should be worth close to what Greinke is.  He is cheaper than Greinke and has an extra year of control I believe.  I am talking myself into expecting a big haul back for Marcum.

Seems like a curious move.  It wouldn't be unheard of to trade a player to get prospects to move onto to another team, but if that's the case wouldn't you think that it would all be done together?   And what would be the point of trading Marcum for prospects?  He should be a part of the core of the team for the next 5 years.

I think there's a lot more here than we know about at this point.  Given AA's secrecy I think that's likely if a move is going down.

I'll be disappointed to see Marcum go - he's pretty easily my favorite Jay going right now.

Sounds like Lawrie is part of the deal.  If so, it'll be interesting to see if they keep him at 2b.

I think, along with the Gose trade, we're starting to see the Jays reaching to lower levels to try and secure what they consider elite players.

I also think it's also an indication that they have pretty strong confidence in the pitchers that they do have.

Third thought, if Marcum is going for minor leaguers it's an indication to me that AA isn't building towards 2011, and if that's the case are they really going to be in on Greinke for just 2011-2012?

It does look like the Jays might do OK from a value perspective - Lawrie is a good start - and there's certainly no shortage of arms in the pipeline. This is one way to disperse the logjam.

From MLBTR:

9:11pm: A second Canadian prospect could be headed to the Blue Jays, 20-year-old right-hander Nick Bucci, a source tells Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star.

Bob Elliott now saying Lawrie too.

The big question is where will he play?  Reportedly his defense at 2B is lacking.  The Jays could leave him there and move Hill; move Lawrie to 3B; or move Lawrie to left field.

After reading the comments in http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/brewers-acquire-shaun-marcum.html and then examining the information for myself http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_gamebygamelog.jsp?c_id=tor&playerID=451788&statType=2 , I can conclude that Marcum might have had dificulties with New York, Boston, and Tampa Bay.  

However, in comparing pre- and post surgical stats, I believe Shaun Marcum came back better, and I think Milwaukee noticed.   Marcum is worth a 3-5 year deal with / without 1or 2 option years.   When I check Milwaukee's roster and stats http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?c_id=mil I find a 1-2 punch of Gallardo and Marcum very credible.   This is a good deal for Milwaukee.

I think Brett Lawrie must be the piece in this trade.   Any other pieces will be filling the needs of Toronto as can be, but are not as critical.   I like this trade, more is to come.

Personally I like this trade if Lawrie is indeed coming back.  I don't see the Jays as serious contenders until 2013 and beyond.  Marcum is due to become a free agent after 2013 if I'm not mistaken.  As a fan, I accept that the Jays are rebuilding and I will happily endure two years of mediocrity under the auspices that they'll be a perennial contender thereafter.  The Jays have stockpiled young talent in the low minors that should be ready starting on or about 2013 and Lawrie is just another piece to that puzzle.

I believe Shaun Marcum came back better, and I think Milwaukee noticed. 

I think it's fair to say that everyone with a pulse noticed.

Regarding Marcum's departure, remember what the American rear-admiral said so gravely in "Red October?" 

"THIS SITUATION IS GOING TO GET OUT OF CONTROL."

Ho-hum, another good one bites the dust for a couple of sure-thing, can't-miss prospects.  

However, if this trade has something to do with acquiring Greinke, then that's different.   Still, Greinke makes a lot of money.  This kind of expenditure is out of character for our three wise men, Alex, Paul and Nadir.

I didn't figure Jays were stretching out Rzepczynski's innings in the AFL to pitch relief in 2011.  But so many really savvy baseball people crucified me for suggesting Zep would start that I changed my mind.  You know, go with the flow.  Majority rules.  My terminal gutlessness.  Take your pick.

Lawrie was the #5 prospect in the Southern League this season.  Here is BA's scouting report:

After debuting in the SL as a 19-year-old last August, Lawrie spent all of 2010 in Huntsville. He didn't disappoint, leading the league in runs (90), hits (158), triples (16), total bases (250) and comparisons to Dan Uggla (countless).

Like Uggla, Lawrie is a strong, aggressive hitter with a big swing. He has a quick bat that stays in the hitting zone for a long time, and balls carry well off his bat. While he's prone to chasing pitches out of the zone, he also has shown the ability to make adjustments during at-bats and series. He stole 30 bases this year, but he also was caught 13 times and his speed is only average.

Lawrie's offense is well ahead of his defense at this point. He made 25 errors this year and still needs to improve his hands and footwork around second base. Many scouts believe he'll land on an outfield corner, where he'd have average range and arm strength.

Don't think AA will trade for Grienke but I do think Snider will be dealt somewhere as my spies tell me AA has been trying to deal him since last winter.

Very disappointing to see them trade Marcum.  He's a better pitcher than most people realize.  Marcum and Greinke have virtually identical career ERA's and WHIP's, despite Marcum facing tougher opposition , and Marcum is way cheaper.   If this is a prelude to adding Greinke to replace Marcum in the rotation I think there is some serious misjudgment going on.  If it's not a prelude to adding Greinke, then they are taking another step into the future before contending.

Lawrie sounds like an outstanding prospect and a Canadian, too.  Nice addition.  If it's straight up Marcum for Lawrie, I don't like it at all.  If they end up packaging what they get for Marcum and add MORE to that package to get Greinke, I think they have made a serious mistake.

Mylegacy, er, skoal!  Thanks for the info on Lawrie. 

Yes, I saw Manny at the Eaton's Centre the other day.  He was sitting on a bench in the public area, saying Our Father's and Hail Mary's on every bead in his hair.   He told me that Alex Anthopoulos was making him do it to atone for all his past transgressions.  You know, before he would consider signing Manny.

Seriously, why acquire Greinke, if the Jays have a poor bullpen and a big hole at DH? 

LOVE this trade - Getting a premium bat like lawrie for Marcum is fantastic - AA took advantage of the Brewers

need to win now in fielders last season before FA - RH power bats are so hard to acquire - I hope all

the posters criticizing this deal remember what their reactions were in a few yrs.The, we must compete

now in 2011 is unrealistic - the Jays are not  just a player or 2 away from a pennant race - AA has stated

repeatedly that he is in the talent acquisition business and then see how it plays out & he has acquired

a premium talent in my opinion - we are trading from a position of strength (pitching) to improve a

weakness (position players).

I liked Marcum very much and thank him for his yrs. in Toronto - also wish him well in Milwaukee

The reason the Jays wouldn't acquire Greinke is because they're not ready to compete in 2011 and he's only under contract for two years.  AA isn't worried about making the playoffs in 2011, he's building up the level of talent across the entire franchise. 

At some point you do strike and go for the gold, and if everything were to fall their way there's a chance that could be next year for the Jays.  But if you go for it too soon because you're banking on everything falling your way, and you're wrong, you have to start all over again just ask Brian Burke or Ricciardi.  AA strikes me as someone with a lot more patience than that.  The Jays are getting closer, I don't think they're there yet, but this trade is will help inch them along toward the ultimate goal.

With it being very likely Shaun Marcum is traded, it time to talk about what the Starting Rotation will be - with and without Zach Greinke.

With Greinke.

What will we get from Zach Greinke http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml as a Toronto Blue Jay?   I think he has better stuff than Marcum, I'll wait to see if he's a better pitcher.   Do we get 2007, 2008, 2009 or 2010 from him?   Who knows?   We are an upgrade on Kansas City, city and team.   We are a better team, with a a lot better offence, and getting to the post-season much sooner than K.C. will.  We should get somewhere between a 2008 and a 2009 season from him, or this team is as bad as some people are saying we are.

Unless traded, we will have Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil as Starters 2, 3, 4.   Unless traded, competing for spot #5 are Marc Rzepczynski, Kyle Drabek, Zach Stewart and unless traded, Jesse Litsch, Brad Mills, Scott Richmond and Robert Ray.   That's too many starters.   I would expect 1 of Romero, Morrow or Cecil, plus 1or 2 of Rzepczynski, Drabek and Stewart, plus 1 or 2  or 3 of Litsch, Mills, Richmond or Ray to be traded this off-season.

Without Greinke.

Unless traded, we will have Ricky Romero as our default ace with Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil as Starters 2, 3.   Unless traded, competing for spots 4 and 5 are Marc Rzepczynski, Kyle Drabek, Zach Stewart and unless traded, Jesse Litsch, Brad Mills, Scott Richmond and Robert Ray.   That's still too many starters.  

About the trade.

Shaun Marcum for just Brett Lawrie doesn't feel like enough.   It is unknown as yet, as to whether or not this is part of the Carlos Villanueva trade, or could not be combined with it.   With minor league rosters being locked until the Rule 5 draft, any announcement of this type can't be made until Friday.   Anything we have just now is not officially official, just semi-official leaks.   Does make you wonder about how good Carlos Villanueva is if will still must give them a PTBNL.   It does set a precedent when traded an Ace for a Number 1 stud prospect.

Yes, Mylegacy, if life's not worth living it may be the liver.  I am very old.

If Jays get Greinke and can add Manny and Beltre, they could have a pretty good team.  Someone in the pen needs to step up and close.  Or Jays will have to trade for a top closer during the season.

Otherwise, shouldn't be a problem remaining in contention throughout the season. 

Hands down, he's better than Beckett. (But not Lester, probably not Buchholz... and not Sabathia or Price.)

The point about Marcum's durability is a good one. If you don't like his chances of staying healthy going forward, and he's coming off three straight very good seasons, and you have several starting prospects knocking on the door, why not cash in. I suppose the answer would be that he's too good, and he's a respected leader who is nevertheless three years away from free agency.

I want to hear more about Lawrie's defense before evaluating the trade, I think.

To consider why trade Shaun Marcum for Brett Lawrie, let's step out onto the grassy knoll for a while.   Now as conspiracy theories go, this thing of mine is a gem.  

Who plays 2B for us in 2012?   Aaron Hills' 2010 season was a thing to forget, but his offense and defense combining with attitude might have changed some minds.   Do you "activate" his three-option plan just prior to the 2011 season (ages 30, 31, 32)?   Do you "activate" his two-option plan after the 2011 season (ages 30, 31)?   Or do you let him walk as a free agent(age 29)?   After all, you just acquired his replacement (age 21).

Interesting comparison Dave Till.  Those numbers for Lawrie/A.Gonzalez are eerily similar for age/level.

That being said, I think one can use player similar comparisons and single season stats like above to frame any argument one cares to make if you look hard enough.

In my recollection, A. Gonzalez was a highly regarded prospect, on the BA Top 100 (not an easy feat) for many years before making it to the majors and never fulfilling any of the offensive potential he flashed in the minors.

I think you can use stats as above to pinpoint areas of improvement, but for prospects like Lawrie with such a pedigree and playing several levels above expected for age 20, the usefulness of stats only goes so far.  At some point, you have to trust your scout's opinions on his chance achieving hiss upside based on identifying flaws and ability to overcome the same.

he was in an eight way tie for 18th in wins in the American league

Also in this eight way tie was some guy pitching in Seattle.

Just to clear up one misconception, Lawrie is actually close to MLB ready with the bat... he's not a raw prospect and succeeded at double-A as a 20 year old.

I like the return but would have preferred it with another player coming back. I'm a Marcum fan but I am definitely worried about his durability heading into his age 30+ years. His stuff should allow him to be a very good pitcher in the NL.

As already stated, I love this trade and it's keeping in line with what AA has stated about how he would build

a long term contender - remember this guy is only 1 yr. into his tenure.That said,

I wish people would get off the Zach Greinke train - if the jays acquire Greinke for anything like

what's been speculated, then I think that would be a huge mistake, so I don't think

Zach is in the card.

I expect the Jays will sign a veteran pitcher coming off injury/down yr. to eat up some innings and

hopefully flip at the trade deadline when some youngsters are ready and safe from super 2

I am hopeful that the Jays will put Bautista on the block this week and get some more quality young

players.

Speaking of trades, I like Lawrie more than any of the prospects that the Padres acquired from the

Gonzalez deal.

I hope AA has a busy winter meeting.

I didn't realize Marcum is almost 29, his birthday is next week.  I would have thought he was around 27.

It appears that AA doesn't believe the Jays are in a position to compete year after year until 2013 or 2014.  Marcum would be pitching at 31 or 32 in those years.  Can Marcum be as effective as he is today if he loses a mile or two off his fastball as he gets older?  Lefties like Jamie Moyer can get by but not too many righties can.  Maybe AA was capitalising on Marcum's value before it dropped.

Without Greinke.

I think this is a "wait-and-see" trade, with the possibility of it being short-term or long-term.   Assessing this trade on its own is fine and dandy, but Lawrie could get flipped again, so we have to wait and see what Marcum really got the Jays back if this is hinging on another offseason trade.  Despite saying this, I think Lawrie fills a need for organizational depth and a 2B-3B for the longer-term future, neither of which Toronto has as far as depth is concerned. 

Second, if Toronto plans on keeping Lawrie for good, there is no way of knowing this was a good trade until he establishes himself at the major league level.  Nevertheless, I think it might have been more prudent to wait until the meetings had started to perhaps drive up Marcum's value, but I would assume AA was diligent as far as inquiring what Marcum's trade value was before he made the deal.

Lawrie was drafted with the thought on moving him to catcher but he played all over the diamond as an amateur and never really spent much time at all behind the dish until the lead up to the draft to improve his draft stock. His best spot is probably left field but there is a concern that he would lose focus out there.

Having spoken with Lawrie, I can assure you he is a very confident kid and I can see how some would feel that comes off as cocky and might rub some people the wrong way. With a solid coaching staff and good clubhouse presence, I think he'll be fine.

I like the Uggla comp.

In terms of just competing next year, is there going to be a great drop off from marcum to his replacement? Either drabek or rzep I assume. I assume it won't be too much of a drop

Back of the napkin analysis goes like this: Assuming Marcum repeats his 2010 (yes, perhaps a big assumption), he'd deliver 195 innings of 3.64 ERA. Say his replacement(s) provide a 4.80 ERA in his stead. That's a net drop of 25 runs, or about 2.5 team wins.

Very big assumption, Chuck.

Agreed, thus the "back of the napkin" caveat. I, too, like Marcum long term, though anticipate a step back in 2011 (given the magnitude of the step forward in 2010), perhaps more in playing time than in level of performance (a la ZiPS).

Thanks for the gratuitous criticism.  I get lots of it because I don't always use single-syllable words to enhance low-brow comprehension.  (The stats I use are often faulty because I quote 'em from memory, eh.)

Here it is.  AA said he would "gopher the guzzle" when all the other pieces were in place.  Bullpen and DH are as yet not in place.

How about 3B and 1B, Chris?  Are they off or on the Jays radar?  I like Bautista and Lind, who may or may not be able to out-field the departed Milk and Ooobs.  But the 77 HR's they hit last year is, like, pretty cool, eh. 

Now in your fungible pen, Lewis could close, and your adequate DH might include McCoy, McDonald, Molina or Arencibia, depending upon game-day availability.  I wouldn't know because you didn't give any examples.  Just the gratuitous criticism.  Thanks, eh.

Bob Elliot reports:

The Jays signed free-agent, minor-league, righty reliever Winston Abreu, 33. In the previous two seasons at Triple-A Durham he walked 37 and struck out 159 in 106 innings. He was 3-5 with 38 saves and has a heavy fastball.

Abreu's signing was announced about a week ago. That is old news.

And Lawrie is in no way comparable to Wood. Very different hitting mechanics and approaches at the plate. Wood is very all-or-nothing and cannot hit or recognize breaking balls.

I compare Lawrie to Wood thusly: At age 20 Wood was a better prospect than Lawrie is today.

Risk. That is all I'm saying. There is a lot of risk, no matter how good the prospect is.

Lawrie is actually the better prospect at the same age.

Okay. I'll expect to see him in the Baseball America top 10 then, as Wood was #3 following his age 20 season.

Wood ... is a fastball/mistake hitter.

This is apparent now, after he's failed to hit major league pitching in 4 partial seasons. Was it apparent when he was 20?

First the ridiculous Greinke package, then the comparison of Marcum to Saunders, and now this. I trust Fangraphs way too much.

I suppose that AA has decided that he can't beat the beasts of the AL East with his current roster (plus an addition or two), so he's going long.

Or perhaps his superiors decided for him by not giving him any money. Purge the whole roster of its talent please.

AA seems to subscribe to the "strong up the middle" theory.  He inherited a plethora of catching options (and added one), but has brought in two options at SS (Hech, Escobar), went out and got a flycatcher for CF (Gose), and now Lawrie for 2nd.

It will be fun in two years when this core is hopefully ready to hit the Bigs.  There are certainly no guarantees any will become stars, but at least the potential is there.  With all the pitching bubbling under as well, its exciting.

David Thompson had a 4' vertical leap.

Must have been handy on those portages...

I didn't realize Marcum is almost 29, his birthday is next week...... Maybe AA was capitalising on Marcum's value before it dropped.

That's a couple years older than I would have guessed as well.

AA has talked about winning with power pitchers, and Marcum didn't quite fit that.  Trading him with two years of control after a pretty good season is probably selling at the high point.  It'll be interesting to see how his career plays out.  I'm sure he'll be successful the next few years, but when we he turn into a below average starter?

I'm surprised to see so many comments about Marcum having some kind of career year last season, and that it was his best year.  His ERA in 2008 was better, at 3.39, than it was in 2010.  Last year was right about in the middle of his 2007, 2008 and 2010 seasons.  His WHIP in those 3 years (his last 3 seasons) were 1.245, 1.163 and 1.147.  How many Americal league starters have done better in their last 3 years.  Marcum is an excellent pitcher, and a lot of people don't realiize how good he is.

The Jays' record in games started by the top 4 starters last year was far better than when any other starters were in there.  I looked at that about 130 games into the season and the team had a winning % of .568 with the top 4 and .387 with others.  Not sure what the numbers were at season's end.  I find it disappointing that they've taken such a step backwards for 2011.

Hey, Duce!

Off-the-wall humour is good.  I love it! 

Regarding David Thompson's 48" vertical, well, yeah, that's why they named a river after the guy, eh.

Ditto, Michael Jordan.  I understand they named a river after him over in the Middle East.  The one Moses got up to, but never crossed.  That was where Moses turned the whole freakin' program over to his homeboy, Joshua.

Now fun's fun, Duce, but don't get me started on the Biblical stuff, because in that particular area, I am quite frequently guilty of revisionist thinking. 

I don't want to end up in one of those Red Chinese prisons they call "re-education centers" for the next couple of years to get my trail of consciousness more in line with that of the rest of so-called right-thinking society. 

Where The Head Man says:  "Well, BumWino, at first glance your revisionist thinking doesn't appear to be too, too terribly dangerous vis-a-vis maintaining the status quo around here, but it does represent change.  And we don't like change."

Duce?  Pass me that Little Red Book, will you? 

Hey Dan!

I figured out the Jays' pitching won-lost records at season's end.  I'm doing this from memory, but I could be right on.

Big Four were 52-31; the "5th starters," Eveland, Tallet, Mills, Rzepczynski, Drabek, Hill, Litsch, et al, went 10-22.  Relief corps was 23-24.

Hill and Rzepczynski won four games over the last three weeks of the season.  On Sept. 15th, the "5th starters" were 6-19.  Ouch.

Morrow, Marcum, Cecil and Romero's combined winning percentage was .627.   Extended out to 162 games, a .627 winning percentage yields 101 wins.

AA was just interviewed by McCowan on the FAN and talked briefly about Lawrie.  Paraphrasing, he said that they have been chasing him since last year, and have asked him multiple times, but Milwaukee was never interested in talking until earlier this week when they asked about Marcum.  In conversation about his defense, AA said that right now he thinks his defensive talents may be best utilized at 3B.

About Greinke, AA gave the impression that the Jays interest was probably being overblown, saying that anytime anyone is available that he thinks could help the team, he will at least make the call to find out the asking price.

I've been thinking about this trade for a day and a half now and i just don't like it. While I am a Marcum fan and sad to see him go, I can live with trading him if the jays got fair value, which I do not believe they did. In an earlier post it was said " would the jays have traded Lawrie for Marcum" and the answer is no. the Jays have pitching depth and are short on position players so it doesn't make sense, but that doesn't mean the team gave an asset away for less than they should have gotten. Marcum is a very underated pitcher who has done well in the AL East and is a legit  2/3 on a playoff team. He is controllable for two more years and because of scouts opinions of him and the injury will probably sign cheaper than what pitchers with similar return would give you. Who is better, Marcum or Lackey, Marcum will never get Lackey's cotract or anywhere near it. There aren't that many pitchers of Marcum's stature out there right now and his "peers" do not come cheaply. Marcum also has extra value in the NL because he can handle a bat and is a great fielder in a league where small ball is much more of a factor.

Lawrie for all his promise is a prospect, I get starry eyed over them too, but what is the failure rate for prospects and if Lawrie suceeds, what is the chance he's better than Marcum or more valueable, 25% if the Jays are lucky and when will this be? He's 20 now, lets say he comes up for good in 2012 and then needs a few years to get his game going, think  Snider or thousands of other young players, so this now now 2014 or 15 if the Jays are lucky. I think the rewers got incredible return for Lawrie.

I agree that the Jays need to take chances for special talent and I realize that Lawrie is well regarded but so was Sil Campusano, in fact, much more highly so. I do not mind trading Wallace or even Stewart or Drabek for high level young talent at positions of need. The Jays simply should have gotten more for an asset like Marcum. Alex is an exciting GM, but he really needs these tyes of gambles to pay off or instead of getting those 10 more wins, we could be looking at 90 loses in 2014.

Going here http://www.fan590.com/onair/primetimesports/ will allow you to listen to Keith Law and then Alex Anthopoulos talk Blue Jay stuff.

1) Brett Lawrie will play 3B or he will play RF or he will play 2B.   But one thing is clear, he starts on the big club in 2012.   His bat is too good not to.

2) Alex Anthopoulos is not done with Zach Greinke.   He just needs to do the deal or expand it.   Until someone else gets Greinke, Alex will still be in on him.  

3) Jesse Litsch, as per John Farrell and as per Alex Anthopoulos is one of our starters, with Marc Rzepczynski or Zach Stewart or ? will be our other challengers.  

3) Cubs sign Pena

It's a shame for Brett that it's probably not consistent with how the Toronto front office sees the ideal development path for Lawrie.

2) Alex Anthopoulos is not done with Zach Greinke.   He just needs to do the deal or expand it.   Until someone else gets Greinke, Alex will still be in on him.  

Where by "Alex Anthopoulos" you mean "Richard S.S."? Your continual blather about Greinke doesn't change the fact that AA has said nothing to indicate he's pursuing that angle.

BTW, it's Zack. With a K.

Ugh, the Facebook pics of Lawrie alone make me not a fan of this trade.

Yes, that's irrational. I embrace it fully.

The photos weren't "shocking". It's that he looks like a Jersey Shore extra.

IF ...  the Jays are somewhat short on young impact bats then wouldn't attaining Lawrie be viewed as a plus because he is so highly rated ?   Sickles has him at number 14 in his '2010 top 50 hitting prospects'  and Lawrie was younger than everyone ahead of him ( http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/10/11/1745751/top-50-hitting-prospects-for-2010-in-review ) and could be Top 5 by late spring through 'prospect attrition' .  The Jays haven't had a bat that high since Snider and  "if" given the chance of trading the Marcum of today for the Snider of 2 years ago, would you not have made that deal, especially given the amount of pitching the Jays now have in their system ?  Also,  Lawrie has a better arm, more speed and the potential to fill the 3rdbase position for a number of years .  I think he's worth the risk .