I hope he gets to pitch in the playoffs sometime.

Frasor sits 4th all-time. He will need to jump Stieb, Henke and Ward. He'll still trail Henke and Ward in IP though. I was quite surprised that Quantrill was 5th. Tallet even made the top 20.

Link

RE: Jason Frasor ... If 3 teams were interested in signing Frasor for multiple years could the Jays trade an unsigned Frasor before arbitration to one of those teams and let them go to arbitration with him ?  What would the process be to allow the Jays to sell high on Frasor ?  Has anyone heard who the 3 teams were that were offering the multi years ?  Would the Dodgers take Frasor for the possibly to be non-tendered Russell Martin ?  Would the Jays ? 

                       OR ... should the Jays sign Frasor for 1 year and hope that Hentgen can talk Frasor into believing in himself as a closer ?

 Your link failed, try this, for now   http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/article/899562--rogers-in-talks-to-buy-leafs-in-blockbuster-deal?bn=1

Even though Olivo has apparently declined arbitration, it's still unclear if JPA will be the starting catcher to open the season.  I know that I've been beating this drum since September, and I could be totally wrong, but listen to the latest quote from Anthopolous in a story by Gregor Chisholm on MLB.com:

"Arencibia is the wild card that we just don't know," Anthopoulos said. "We know he has a lot of ability. We know he has a ton of talent. We think he will be a very good player. The unknown is when that is going to show itself up here. That's the hardest part about young players."

Listen also to Gregor's interpretation of AA's above quote, from the same article:

"Free-agent catcher Miguel Olivo is still a possibility to re-sign with the club, but he likely will want a guaranteed starting job. Whether the club opts to go that route or instead sign another veteran backup to provide organizational depth ultimately depends on how much confidence the club has in the up-and-coming Arencibia."

And here's my own guesswork:  I suspect the Jays are still talking to Olivo, hoping that he'll sign for 2011 for a reasonable amount of money without an ironclad guarantee of a starting job for the entire season.  If that doesn't work, the Jays will possibly try to find another reasonably-priced veteran who could be willing to slide into a back-up job by mid-season if JPA is as good as the Jays hope.  But when you consider AA's recent comments on the catching situation -- his emphasis on JPA being a  "wild card" at this point, and his previous comment about not wanting to be "left naked" at the catching position -- I'd be a little surprised if the Jays go with JPA and Molina as the catching tandem to open the season.

....why didn't they simply exercise Olivo's $2.5M option?

I assume that Anthopolous would prefer to work his magic by negotiating his usual creative contract, full of team options, incentive clauses, or whatever else it would take to make it work for both sides.

Having said that, maybe Anthopolous actually has his eye on a cheaper veteran who would willingly stand aside for JPA at mid-season if the kid is doing a good job.  Someone once speculated about Russell Martin, who at least has an excellent career OBP.

My only point is that Anthopolous doesn't seem the type to gamble on a raw rookie for a full season at a key position like catcher, especially when the catcher is so important to the team's young pitching staff.  He keeps hinting that he has question marks about JPA's readiness -- maybe we should believe him.

Martin would be a pretty interesting option though.

Interesting stuff on one-year UZR from Inside the Book.

TheInteresting stuff on one-year UZR from Inside the Book.

The bottom line fits with the impression I've had that WAR is not trustworthy because the methodology in calculating defensive value is not sound:

So, can we just add up a player’s offensive RAR or WAR and his defensive UZR (or DRS)?  Nope.  That is adding apples and oranges.  Does everyone, including FG, do it?  Yup.  Are they doing it wrong?  Absolutely.

So what does it lead to?  Obviously, it leads to overvaluing players with high defensive numbers and undervaluing players with low defensive numbers, in terms of their WAR - what we think they actually did.

I don't mind having Frasor back, he's a decent pitcher, but I don't think he's good enough to be a closer.  I hope they sign Jesse Crain, a Toronto-born guy who's had a pretty good career with Minnesota.  Had a bit of a stumble, with some injury problems a couple of years ago, but he bounced back strongly last year with an ERA of 3.04 and WHIP of 1.176.  Just 29 years old, and apparently there is a fair degree of mutual interest.  I'd be OK with a bullpen of Crain, Frasor, Camp, Janssen, Purcey, Rzepczynski and 1 of the remaining candidates.

Another guy I think is interesting is Jose Lopez from Seattle.  Apparently, he is going to be non-tendered.  He's only 27, so he should be just entering his best seasons.  His offensive numbers have been dragged down by the park he plays in, so he should hit better once he's away from Seattle and his career splits bear that out.  Hit 25 HR's in 2009, but had a down season in 2010, so he may not be expensive.  He's been playing 2B, but was shifted to 3B last year and his Total Zone defensive stat had him at 17 runs above average, with a range factor of 3.08 vs a league average of 2.64.

TamRa, you're misquoting me a little.  I didn't suggest that Farina is a better prospect than JPA.  Nor did I say that Farina has a better chance to crack the lineup than JPA.  The reason that I mentioned Farina is simply because the Jays bullpen is currently full of question marks, and this might offer an opportunity for someone like Farina to slip in.  The only pitchers who are guaranteed a spot in the bullpen are Frasor, Camp, Purcey and Janssen.  Beyond that, it's all questions.  Carlson and Roenicke are certainly not locks -- they had lots of problems in 2010 and didn't really crack the lineup until the September call-ups.  I'm hopeful about Richmond, but he's had so much injury trouble in the past couple seasons that it would be risky to count on him.  Accardo, as everyone knows, is not exactly a favorite of the Jays management.  Zep could be the 5th starter, so he can't be counted on for the bullpen.  Mills and Ray aren't major-leaguers yet, and the Jays might prefer to keep them as starters. Reyes shouldn't even be in the discussion.  Sure, Anthopolous might yet acquire another arm for the bullpen from a trade or free agency, but there would still be a couple of vacancies.  If it's Farina head-to-head against Roenicke or Carlson for the final slot, I wouldn't necessarily exclude Farina, given his very strong numbers in AA and the AFL over the past few months.  Roenicke and Carlson are far from certainties, given all their problems over the past two seasons.  And if there are any injuries to any of the relievers, which often happens, Farina has another shot at a job.  In any event, I'm not arguing that Farina is a favorite to make the team, he would definitely be a longshot, but I'm just saying that it's not impossible, especially if you extend the time horizon to mid-season.

As for Olivo, you're also misquoting me -- I didn't predict that he'll definitely be a Blue Jay in 2011.  My argument is that Anthopolous is probably still considering the possible acquisition of another veteran catcher for 2011, whether it's Olivo or someone else.  There are plenty of veteran catchers available.

Mike Green - the splits for Crain in 2010 indicate that the move to Target last year actually hurt him.  On the road in 2010 Crain had an ERA of 2.52 and a WHIP of 0.992.  At home, he had an ERA of 3.77 and a WHIP of 1.43.  He gave up 3 HR's at home, 2 on the road.  His opponents' OPS was .695 at home, .571 on the road.  It is interesting that he allowed more HR's on the road that at he old Metrodome in previous seasons, but still, despite that, his career ERA and WHIP are both slightly lower on the road than at home.  I think he is a substantially better pitcher than Frasor, and 4 years younger.

Regarding Lopez' on base percentage, for his career it is 30 points higher on the road than at home.  As far as his defense is concerned, he only played 1 season at 3B.  Yes, it would be nice to have more than 1 season of defensive stats there.  His numbers at 2B show somewhat lower range than average for that position, but his Total Zone numbers were positive more often than negative.  Considering those factors, along with the good numbers from 2010, I think he would be fine as a 3B.

Some more tidbits, or is that timbits?

Gregor Chisholm reminds us that tonight is the deadline for tendering contracts to unsigned players.  Will the Jays offer contracts to Fred Lewis and Jeremy Accardo?  Gregor also mentions Dustin McGowan as a non-tender possibility.

Jon Morosi tweets that the Jays are interested in Matt Guerrier as well as Jesse Crain.

StivBators mentioned that BA had a top 25 rule 5 draft feature up yesterday.  They listed Brad Emaus as a top 25 possible draftee but not Adam Loewen.  That draft will be next week.

From Twitter........Blue Jays sign RHRP Winston Abreu, who in 2 years for AAA Durham had 159/37 K/BB, 5 HR in 106 IP

From Twitter........Blue Jays sign RHRP Winston Abreu, who in 2 years for AAA Durham had 159/37 K/BB, 5 HR in 106 IP

If this is for the Jays 'Pen, I'm going to suggest A.A. seek professional (psychiatric) help.

If this is for the Jays 'Pen, I'm going to suggest A.A. seek professional (psychiatric) help.

I don't understand the criticism. This is a low risk move, the type that goes on all the time for relief pitchers. TB, for example, has had recent success with scrap heapers Balfour and Benoit and look what they delivered for little cost. The downside risk is that Abreu struggles at AAA and never warrants a promotion. Big deal.

Fangraphs takes a detailed look at Abreu today.

For a smart team like the Rays to turn a blind eye to Abreu’s stunning visuals must mean something is up. Best I can tell, there are two blemishes with Abreu. The first is difficult to tell through his minor league statistics, but his fastball command is off. The velocity is there (Baseball Info Solutions has his career fastball velocity at 92 miles per hour) and his slider is a worthwhile secondary pitch, but the fear is that he will be susceptible to major league hitters by falling behind in the count. The other issue concerns his brief time in the majors and is his home run rate. The mendacity of 40-something innings makes it hard to take Abreu’s career 2 HR/9 too seriously. Neither of those issues appears in Abreu’s minor league track record, which makes his major league offerings even more suspect.

With an emptying pen, Toronto will probably give Abreu a look in spring. It’s hard to say whether Abreu will be able to make the most of the opportunity and finally approach the 50 innings plateau, but it’s even harder to say he hasn’t earned the opportunity.

What Forkball said. Précisément.

“They may not need as much help,” he said. “With a year’s experience, I think you can take the reins off a little bit with those guys.”

Mike:

I saw that defence comment in another story last week but in that case it was a catcher related comment.  I believe AA was saying that when you have a lot of rookie pitchers you need an experienced catcher.  But now that the pitchers have some experience in the league you can survive with a rookie catcher.

I thought he was saying that Arencibia is OK to be the starting catcher even though he is a rookie. 

Just as a refresher on McGowan:

• July 2008 - Surgery to repair tear in labrum and inspect rotator cuff
• July 2009 - Surgery to repair knee injured during rehab
• June 2010 - Surgery to repair significant tear in rotator cuff
• December 2010 - McGowan on throwing program

If there's a silver lining in all of that, it's that it's been a long time since the labrum was repaired - not sure if that helps.

But if pitchers with torn labrums were horses, they'd be destroyed. Of the 36 major-league hurlers diagnosed with labrum tears in the last five years, only midlevel reliever Rocky Biddle has returned to his previous level. Think about that when your favorite pitcher comes down with labrum trouble: He has a 3 percent chance of becoming Rocky Biddle. More likely, he'll turn into Mike Harkey, Robert Person, or Jim Parque, pitchers who lost stamina and velocity—and a major-league career—when their labrums began to fray.

If Adam Lind can return halfway to his 114-RBI year in 2009, he'll end up with 90-95 RBI in 2011.  Over the past four years, I believe Overbay averaged 61 RBI which was at least partially due to a nagging hand injury.  Could be a major increase in offensive production from 1B in 2011.

Alex Anthopoulos stated that Lind should hit 30 HR in 2011, but didn't say anything about Aaron Hill (at least nothing I've seen).  Considering that a decision on Hill's contractual future with the Jays is coming due in the next three to four months, does Anthopoulos' silence provide any clue about Hill's long-term future with the club?

Why on earth would any GM disclose any of that?  Do you know of one who honestly does/did so?   I don’t really see the point of this observation.

Exactly. That behaviour is part of his job description. Anyone who asks AA any pointed questions about such things, and then receives non-answer answers, is getting exactly what he deserves. AA owes it to no one outside his small circle to reveal his true opinions on such matters. In fact, by acting as such, he is better serving the Blue Jay fan base.

Perhaps that's why he wouldn't want to be quoted in the media saying Hill can hit 30 HRs again.

Aaron Hill's offense obviously went south in 2010, but his homerun rate barely changed. He hit 36 in 2009. Prorating his AB in 2010 to his 2009 level and he'd have hit 34.

Over the past four years, I believe Overbay averaged 61 RBI which was at least partially due to a nagging hand injury.

It's obviously your prerogative to go old school with your stats of choice, but I just caution you that you may find few in these parts to be overly RBI-centric.

I think he's much more interesting as a project than Merkin Valdez.

The anticipation for Suns/Warriors tonight makes it hard to be articulate.

I don't see why AA would have any interest in trading for Mark Reynolds.  Sure 76 homeruns over the past 2 years is great but a .198 batting average last yar and 474 k's over the past 2 years is the last thing that Farrell should be looking to add.  He is also not very good defensively as underscored by his .951 fielding percentage last year.  I say the Jays should but him on their "no trade" list just like he has done with them.  No love here for Reynolds - say "no" AA.

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/40480827/ns/sports-player_news/

Jenks has apparently been non-tendered.  He would be worth enquiring on.

Kevin Gregg pitched pretty darn good for us, considering he couldn't pitch in back-to-back games, nor pitch twice in a three game series.   Do I want Kevin Gregg back as our primary or backup closer?   No!   Will Bobby Jenks be better than Kevin Gregg?   Can he pitch in back-to-back games?   Can he pitch twice in a three games series?   Can he have equal or better numbers than Gregg?   Yes, I think so!   Should we go after him?   Yes!  

Jenks will be seeking a multiyear deal, and his price will be inflated by his marquee name and salary expectations.

With Rajai Davis, Michael Hinckley and Winston Abreu being the Big Marquee Signings of this off-season, at vast sums of money, I might agree.   But only if we are cutting payroll.   We saved $16.4MM with Halladay, Ryan and Ruiz coming off the books.   We saved $24.5 MM with Overbay, Downs, Olivo, Buck, Gregg, Encarnacion, Tallet, Wise and Buchholz coming off the books.   This doesn't include any possible non-tenders.   Increases of approximately $9.3MM in guaranteed contract raises and arbitration raises of approximately $15.75 MM still leaves us with approximately $15.85MM just to reach $78,689,357 (compliments of Cot's), our 2010 salary.  

I would give Bobbie Jenks 3 years @ $25.0MM plus an option year @$8.5MM.   This will give us a good Closer for 2011, 2012, 2013 and possibly 2014, or at least until we can find someone better.   Of course, if you don't think we can compete 2011-2014, then you're entitled to that opinion.   I think we must be prepared, in case we do find ourselves competing in 2011.

Oh the horror!!  Please tell me this isn't happening.

This http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/blue-jays-close-to-signing-aj-pierzynski.html tells me A.A. is not confident in going forward with only J.P.Arencibia and Jose Molina as the catching tandem.

If you think you might get Bobbie Jenks cheap, http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/white-sox-non-tender-bobby-jenks.html , " All those saves would have made his arbitration reward excessive for the Sox, but now Jenks' agents at Legacy Sports can seek a multiyear deal on the open market."   Compliments to Cot's Baseball Contracts.

Bobby Jenks rhp
1 year/$7.5M (2010)

• 1 year/$7.5M (2010)
  
  • re-signed by White Sox 1/16/10 (avoided arbitration)
• 1 year/$5.6M (2009)
  
  • re-signed by White Sox 1/19/09 (avoided arbitration)
  • award bonus: $25,000 each for Gold Glove, All Star ($15,000 for All Star selection); $50,000 for TSN All Star; $75,000 for LCS MVP; $0.1M for WS MVP; $0.1M for MVP, Rolaids or Cy Young ($90,000 for 2nd in vote, $80,000 for 3rd, $70,000 for 4th, $60,000 for 5th)
    
• 1 year/$0.55M (2008)
  
  • re-signed by White Sox 2/27/08
• 1 year/$0.45M (2007)
  
  • re-signed by White Sox 2/07
  • award bonus: $15,000 for All Star selection
    
• 1 year/$0.34M (2006)
  
  • re-signed by White Sox 2/06
• 1 year/$0.3M (2005)
• 1 year/$0.3M (2005)
  
  • claimed by White Sox off waivers from LA Angels 12/17/04 after being DFA
    
  • signed by White Sox 2/05
• drafted 2000 (5-140) (Inglemoor HS, Kenmore, WA)
• $0.165M signing bonus
• agents: Greg Genske, Ken Felder
  
• ML service: 4.090

If you want to argue Stats http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jenksbo01.shtml?redir

It's really very simple, you show me, with supporting evidence, whom we shall have, or go after, as our closer.   He must be good enough to keep for the next 3 years, until we can get someone better.   He must be better than Kevin Gregg and have a record of being that good.   Anyone posting on this site can suggest 10+ pitchers as closer, who never closed before - and that's just not good enough.

The point is that a team that's really not ready to contend, would be better off using their resources in a more efficient manner than on an expensive closer.

From my earlier post:  still leaves us with approximately $15.85MM just to reach $78,689,357 (compliments of Cot's), our 2010 salary.   I think another $5.0MM - $10.0MM in additional monies will be available this season.   Many experts as well as many people on this site had Toronto losing 100+ games.   We won 85 games without an Ace, with a revolving door in the rotation, with a Closer who couldn't win Back-to-back games or twice in a three game series, with a Bullpen that finished 10th out of 14 teams, with Adam Lind's inability to walk or hit to all fields, Aaron Hill's defensive aned offensive woes and a whole lot more.   I think we might contend in 2011 and I'd like the team to at least fix a hole or two first.  What's wrong with acquiring a good Closer now for 2-3 years while we look for someone better?

- Joakim Soria: Rule 5 draft http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/soriajo01.shtml

When was the last time Toronto even had the faintest sniff at anyone close to being that good.   That was KC, we draft 18th in this Draft.

-Heath Bell-undrafted free agent http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bellhe01.shtml?redir

This is San Diego isn't it.   Toronto's interests are usually younger.   J.P. was here in 2009.

Rafeal Soriano: Obtained in a trade for journeyman Jesse Sanchez http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/soriara01.shtml.  

He was traded more than once: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2006/12/mariners_trade_.html .   http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4730636 .   Toronto didn't have that good a minor system, Lower levels are now great - upper levels still suck.

-Carlos Marmol: Free agent from the D.R.   http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marmoca01.shtml 

Remember J.P.

Brian Wilson: 24th round draft choice. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsobr01.shtml

This team turns relievers into starters, if youv'e got the stuff to close, usually you can start.   Generally relievers are pitchers who can't start and are not of much value and your'e going to make that your closer?   Until Toronto make the conscious effort to turn a good starter into a reliever, this won't happen, because Toronto has little regard for it's minor league relievers.

Jenks' walks per 9 innings has risen every year since '07.  His hits per 9 innings has risen every year since 2007.  His ERA has risen by roughly a run each year since 2008.  He's in a downward trend that is common for big heavy guys like him - they don't tend to maintain their peak level of performance as long.  He'll be 30 before the start of next year, and a lot of guys with that body type have dropped off rapidly after that age.  Yes, there are exceptions, like David Wells, but, I would stay away from him.  I would much rather add one of the 2 guys I have heard the Jays linked to - Jesse Crain or Matt Guerrier. 

As far as Mark Reynolds is concerned, I'd be interested in him, particularly if he'd be moved to 1B.  He has played there some.  Only 27 years old.  You worry that his stats are inflated by the park, but until last year, his splits seemed OK.  Don't know why, but he absolutely stunk on the road last year, with an OPS under .700.  In 2009 the OPS was almost equal at home or on the road.  Interestingly, in games where he has played 1B instead of 3B, his career OPS is almost 200 points higher, although it's in only about 100 AB's.  Yes, he K's a ton and doesn't hit for average, but he does draw a lot of walks.  Would be interesting to know what the asking price is.

I see they non-tendered Lewis and Accardo.

And I don't think there's any amount of spending that will turn them into any kind of legitimate contender.

This is an asinine statement that really illustrates how many people drink the Rogers Kool Aid. The Blue Jays wouldn't even have to get up to Boston's payroll to turn them into a legitimate contender. They choose not to.

Who am I to demand that they take door number two?

The fan who has watched his ticket prices increase as the Canadian dollar got stronger and the Jays payroll got lower.

Your defeatist attitude serves no purpose, and I have no idea why/how the Jays are running up the down escalator. In roller skates. Backwards. In a rainstorm.

I'm sure we'd all like to see them winning 98 games one of these years but the circumstances don't permit it

If by circumstances you mean Rogers' requirement to be fiscally responsible for their shareholders, that's one thing. Just acknolwedge that's the reason and please stop pretending that if the Blue Jays spent money they still wouldn't be contenders. You are perpetuating a Paul Beeston myth.

I have watched Matthew's "defeatist attitude" emerge and it has done so honestly.  I have no problem with it and respect his views on the matter of team building. 

Were there an attractive FA out there to sign, I'd be an advocate.  Rome wasn't built in a day though and I think AA is going about things the right way.

Crawford won't play on turf.  I'd rather a year or two of Manny than four years of Dunn.  Victor Martinez has no business catching a decent number of Major League games.  I don't have the appetite for outbidding the Yankees for Cliff Lee.

Ask me in a year whether I'm interested in Fielder or Gonzalez.

"You are perpetuating a Paul Beeston myth."

92-93, I for one appreciate the fact that you often provide a counter argument in many threads as that is an important part in any meaningful discussion. That said you have made the above statements and others like it in multiple threads and I do not recall having seen an example that you have provided to support such claims. If you disagree with the course of the team that is one thing and you are certainly entitled to express that opinion. However, I would like to read what sources of fact you are basing your opinions on as without clear proof your accusations are tantamount to slander and distract from the discussion in my opinion.

92-93, I for one appreciate the fact that you often provide a counter argument in many threads as that is an important part in any meaningful discussion. That said you have made the above statements and others like it in multiple threads and I do not recall having seen an example that you have provided to support such claims.

I'm not exactly sure what you want me to quantify - that people around here slurp up what Beeston tells them, or that he is saying any of this at all? The former should be obvious, so I'll tackle the latter (but let me know if you needed the former expounded upon too, as I do not wish to be persecuted for slander). 

Beeston took over from Godfrey and told season ticket holders at the State of the Franchise in January 2009 that the team was going to take a step back in 2009 so that it could move forward in 2010. He also said on PrimeTime that it would take him 3 months to find a new President, which he of course never did after dragging out the interim status for too long and despite the fact that he didn't believe Gillick was a fit because he was too old, which apparently I guess Paul himself wasn't (Ottawa Citizen - Beeston's belief that "you are not hiring a president for one, three or five years, you are hiring a president for 20 years"). He conducted numerous interviews explaining that it made no sense to him to spend 100m - it should be 120m or 80m, but not stuck in the middle at 2008's 100m, and since it wasn't the right time to increase payroll, it made sense to slash it. I will use Mike Wilner's blog post from January 2009 as clear proof so we can dispel the notion that this is my opinion. It's fact :

1. Alex Anthopoulos is keen as hell to win, but even more to build a team capable of winning for years.  He will not stop for breath until he has done this.  Ask his wife how he spent his honeymoon.  He strikes me as one of the most competitive characters I have run across, albeit with a generally pleasant personality
2. John Farrell is keen as hell to win, and was absolutely determined to join a club that shared that drive.  He turned others down before saying yes to the Jays.  Not only that, but he totally understood how much tougher winning would be in the AL East, and he would not have joined the Jays for a minute if he believe that AA or Rogers would not back that quest with the money it requires, as soon as it requires it.  Farrell strikes me as almost as competitive a character as AA, maybe even more so.
   
3. These two guys are smart and strategic and persuasive, and if they do their job well and build upon their current high level of credibility with Rogers and Co., they will persuade Rogers' upper management to make the necxessary investments, when they are ready to deliver a coup de grace.  That year is unlikely to be 2011, but if the Jays are in first place next July 1, you will see them pony up
   
4. They are not geniuses, and they will take risks and make mistakes, but under AA, the Jays will be more disciplined, thoughtful, and rigorous in the roster choices they make than almost anyone else.  If someone is acquired and I would not have been keen about them otherwise, I will take a second and a third look, because of what I have seen AA pull out of the hat so far.  
5. Farrell and his coaching staff will make the most of whatever potential lies embedded in the roster AA provides him with.  When he chose his coaches, we were all impressed, and I think we were absolutely right to be impressed
6. AA is more activiist than most GMs and certainly far more than JP ever was.  He will pull plenty of triggers and take plenty of risks enough to satisfy all of us by the time the off-season is over.
   

If you examine our higher minors for MLB-ready or 1-2 year away MLB-ready players, you will not be encouraged.   Rk-, Rk+, A-, A, A+ are fine, too early to tell on some.   For the others, maybe this is what there is:

1) In the Outfield: Eric Thames, Darin Mastroianni and Adam Loewen.   What value other GMs place on them is unknown.

2) In the Infield: Brad Emaus (3B), Adeiny Hechavarria (SS), David Cooper (1B) and Brian Jeroloman (C).   What value other GMs place on them is unknown.

3) The Pitchers: Kyle Drabek, Zach Stewart and Alan Farina.     What value other GMs place on them is unknown.   (Any "prospects" not here, are too low in the minors, or have played in the Majors and are MLB players, not prospect.

A.A. has found dealing for top-line prospects / MLB-ready / MLB players costs more than he is willing to pay.   Marcum, Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Snider are a few of the 'asked-for' assets.   In reading other poeples' posts, I'm seeing pessimistic tendencies and a reliance on less than best effort.   Yes I know it is easier to let someone else do the work first.

Cot's Baseball Contracts http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/toronto-blue-jays_05.html gives you enough data to establish 'how much money Toronto has to spend'.   Guaranteed Salary Increases, Monies off the Books (buyouts, transferred, deferred), Free Agents (F.A.s, waivers, declined assignment), Non-Tenders, Pre-arbitration Raises, Arbitration Raises can all be worked out.   You will find Toronto with approximately $12.0MM - $15.0MM in available funds just to get back to 2010: $78,689,357.   I don't see this number (2010) getting any less (average ticket price: $23.84 carried over to 2011) without further alienating the Fan Base.   I can easily see a mild increase to $80.0MM to $85.0MM as being pre-approved, and I believe Alex can spend what he wants - he just has to want to.

I believe this team can compete for the post-season this year, but I'm not willing to break the bank to do this.   However, we need an Ace (in-house we're not there just yet), Closer, CF Heir, 1B Stud, 3B Stud - any two - this won't break the bank.   All other needs can be filled with as best as you can.   We need a WOW acquisition and a WOW signing to start the fire.   We can afford it and still have $$$ and assets for more, when it's needed.

1. I don't want him to spend 100m. I want the team to spending on par with teams like the Mets, the Phillies, the Red Sox, the Cubs, the Tigers, the Angels, the Dodgers, the White Sox...so yes, I guess you are a bear of little brain if you needed that explained. He should be spending MORE than 100m, especially because the 120m he was referring to when he said it now costs the team the same as 100m based on how the CDN dollar has performed.

2. I never said the team not re-investing that 40m makes Beeston dishonest, sorry. I was very careful to only brand him a liar about things I know he's lied about. And while it's great that Toronto finally has a scouting team on par with the rest of baseball, for me that was separate from the 40m removed from payroll over 2 years, and can be represented by the payroll increase one can reasonably expect year to year from inflation and rising ticket prises. 40m only assumed the Jays would maintain a payroll of 100m those 2 years, when it reality they should have been continuing to increase the payroll to 105, 110, 115...Hechavarria, Cardonis, increased draft spending, and a bunch of 75k salaries DOES NOT make up for that cheapness.

3. Sorry buddy, but again you are putting words in my mouth. I never said he was dishonest because he took the full-time job. What I said was that he lied about finding a new President within a certain time frame, which is once again FACT. Whether or not he did it maliciously neither of us has a clue, but it can't be denied that the team's final decision did not mesh with Beeston's first few quotes on the job. Why you're posting Rogers' company line from his hire I'm not quite sure - of course they are going to say that! That quote tells us nothing about whether or not Rogers actually thought Beeston was the best man for the job because it was said retroactively. If Rogers really believed that, the story when he was originally hired would have included it, saying something like "We're hiring Beeston to look for a replacement, but ideally we can convince him to stay."

4. I didn't acknowledge none of them have had sustained success because Beeston didn't ask for it. He said they'd have more big league experience in a year and that the team would be in a better position to contend. Both those things happened, and instead of on field payroll rising it was reduced by another almost 20m. Keep in mind that Beeston said that when he was still pretending the team would increase payroll for 2010, so clearly it would have been impossible for those guys to show the sustained success you seem to think is necessary. If anything those guys have all had more experience/success than Beeston could have imagined when he said it.

5. Why would you imagine that Halladay's departure had anything to do with the failures of the previous GM to construct a playoff team in his tenure? That's rather presumptious of you, considering Doc re-upped with the Blue Jays for undermarket value TWICE under the Ricciardi/Godfrey regime. For all I know if Beeston never sticks his nose into the team Godfrey gets another 3 year payroll bump committment from Rogers, JP spends like a drunken sailor, and the Blue Jays experience success (a wild card?) or something very close to it and Doc sticks around forever, like he has on the Batter's Box banner. It was Beeston's intentions to slash payroll and take a step back before allegedly taking a step forward that pushed Halladay out the door.

If you're going to respond again, please be careful not to put words in my mouth again. You asked me to detail the lies Beeston has told the public, so I did.