That's a lot of favors generously given to Shawn Hill by the Jays over the past year.  First, they gave him a salary and a full year of rehab in the Jays system.  Then they gave him a September call-up, plus several major-league starts, to show his stuff to the rest of the league.  Then they grant him his release so he can sign elsewhere.  And none of this benefited the Jays in any way.  Very strange.  The only possible explanation is that the Jays took a good look at his pitches in September and decided he just doesn't have much of a future in the majors.  But even this is difficult to believe, since September was still part of his rehab year and he could improve further next year.  Why did they give up on him so quickly?

Meanwhile, there are only 32 names on the 40-man roster, even after McGowan and Litsch have been added.  And those 32 names include several that will be easy to cut if the Jays need further room:  Reyes, McCoy and Luis Perez, among others.  Why does Anthopolous need so much room on the 40-man roster?  He could acquire one or two players in the Rule 5 draft, and maybe two or three free agents, but he would still have plenty of room after that.   Is he planning to acquire 10 new players?  Or is it a hint that he could be planning to trade some young prospects (who don't need to be on the 40-man roster) for veterans who would need to be added to the roster?

Hill was a five inning pitcher in Toronto and he didn't look like a pitcher who would do well in the AL East.  The only reason to keep him was if you didn't think that one of Drabek, Litsch or Rzepczynski should be your number 5 starter.

What the heck! Would they consider moving Hanley?

... and if they would, what will the Yankees pay for Jeter's heir?

Rosenthal has us landing Rajai Davis, Trade Rumors says that Magnuson is part of the package.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/blue-jays-on-verge-of-acquiring-rajai-davis.html

Jays set to acquire Rajai Davis from Oakland for T.Magnussen as per Ken Rosenthal

http://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/5010162771304449

4th outfielder I suppose?

Is Rajai Davis a slightly less productive Fred Lewis?

Lewis' time in Toronto must be running short.  Magnnuson seems like a lot to pay for a fourth outfielder.

Just looking at the offensive stats, Rajai Davis appears to be another Fred Lewis, unless he can regain his form of 2009.   Would his acquisition be enough to shift Bautista to 3B?  Kind of doubt it.   Is his defence good enough to supplant Vernon Wells in centre?  Also doubtful, I would think.

According to one source that I saw, Davis had a UZR in centre field of -7.1 this year, while Wells was at -6.4.   So both are below average, with Wells slightly better.  Again, it suggests that Davis would not replace Wells in centre.  My guess is that he could cycle through the outfield spots, and sometimes on the bench, but playing a lot more than Wise or Lewis in 2010.   Could he become the leadoff hitter than Anthopolous has obviously been searching for?   He batted leadoff in a lot of games for Oakland this past year.

Davis = Fred Lewis with less power, but great base stealing and very good defensive range at all 3 outfield spots. Historic OBP not good enough for leadoff or 2nd, though, so doesn't really solve the Jay's problem.

My take: a wonderful 4th OF, maybe one of the best around... but marginal as a starter unless you don't need a top of the order hitter, and can bat him 9th.

Davis's career OBP of .330 is only 10 points behind Escobar's OBP this past season.  And of course Davis put up a .360 OBP a year ago.  So it's not totally far-fetched to think that he could be the lead-off man that the Jays have been searching for, especially if he can rebound a bit closer to his 2009 numbers.

It is. I agree with China Fan, I don't see any way the Jays paid that for a fourth outfielder. It's not clear how things will shake out, but I think it's the end of Fred Lewis in Toronto, as many of us suspected, and that Davis will be a starting outfielder. What that means for Snider and Bautista remains to be seen, but the Jays didn't trade two of their better relief prospects for 200 at-bats.

In response to Jonny's point:   Given that Anthopolous has essentially chosen Davis instead of Lewis for 2011 (at the cost of two prospects), it seems to me that he expects better on-base numbers from Davis than from Lewis next year.   If Lewis was genuinely seen as a .350 OBP player going forward, he wouldn't have lost two jobs (San Franciso and presumably now Toronto) over the past season.   I'd tend to agree with Anthopolous that Davis is a better choice than Lewis and more likely to put up a better OBP next year.

I'm not upset about losing Magnusen.  He was an overdraft and a reliever to starter conversion project that failed.  He put up nice numbers at AA, but doesn't seem to have the stuff to be any more than a middle reliever at the next level, if it plays at all.

Farquar is disappointing.  He threw mid-nineties from over-the-top and side-arm and complemented those pitches with a slider and change-up.  I think he has late inning upside.

Davis was never much as a prospect and hasn't been much  as a pro.  I can't see Mastroianni being much worse.

Overall a bit disappointed.  Hopefully this move doesn't move Bautista to 3B.

I'd tend to agree with Anthopolous that Davis is a better choice than Lewis and more likely to put up a better OBP next year.

When did Anthopolous say this?  Lewis put up a higher OBP in his poor year with the Jays than Davis has averaged over his career.  I don't know how Davis is going to turn into an on-base machine.  Unless you just think Lewis is going to turn into a pumpkin, which wouldn't surprise me.

I'd certainly have Davis before Lewis on this team, but because of defence, baserunning and position versatility and not because of on-base skills.

So, basically, Davis replaces Lewis.  I don't like the idea of giving up Magnuson and Farquhar for that.  Davis gives them some good speed and better defense than Lewis, but his career OBP of .330 is unimpressive.  Maybe that gets a bit of a boost away from Oakland/SF pitchers' parks, but then again, his career numbers don't show that he's hit worse at his home parks.  Davis looks like a 4th OF to me, and if they are tempted to play him a lot, I think it hurts their offense if it is at the expense of Lind or Snider.  If it means they are moving Bautista to 3B to get Davis in there regularly, I think that leaves them weak defensively at 3B.  I just hope they don't intend to use Davis as a regular.  I think they overpaid. 

Jonny, I think you are correct.  So let me revise my comment.  What I should have said was:  Lewis plays such terrible defence that his .348 OBP is just about useless.  Because he doesn't have any clear position on the field, he's been found wanting by two teams in the past year.  His decent OBP will go to waste because he can't play good enough defence to hold a regular job.  Anthopolous has just traded two prospects to acquire a player who has moved ahead of Lewis on the depth chart.

Questions:  do you really think Lewis will have a regular job for the Jays next season?  If he is lucky, he might be kept in a platoon role.  But since he seems unwilling to accept a platoon role (based on his public comments), he will probably be let go.  In that case, his .348 career OBP is fairly irrelevant.

Because KC wouldn't have accepted that package, I don't think. They wanted a starting pitcher. I don't think the Jays tender Lewis a contract, and KC might well have guessed that, too. The A's have done quite nicely, upgrading from Davis to DeJesus while swapping Mazzaro and Marks for Farquhar and Magnuson.

The bigger question, raised but somewhat forgotten, might be if this spells the end of Vernon Wells in CF? I'm not sure it does. I fear it might be a lesser version of the Bernie Williams story. However, Davis is someone you could justify going to Wells and asking him to move for. Davis is a plus defender and, perhaps more importantly when asking Vernon to move, Davis looks like a CF.

In the interest of Vernon's knees - and not necessarily his defence - he should move off Centerfield.  And that's how you sell it too. 

Of course, we need a better alternative than Davis.

If Wise as 4th OF wasn't in the plans, then this is a tremendous move. I know I am one who has been asking for faster players. The thing is, Rajai is valuable any game. He can play any OF spot and can pinch run. He could also handle starts too.  He hits lefty pitching- something this team needs badly.

I have to say this is a great move for 2011 and adding more excitement to the team. I think now they have to get Lind to play a passable first base to leave the DH spot open for rotation and players that need rest or have nagging lingering injuries. I'd still take Manny though if he wants to play for peanuts!

Assuming Davis is a fourth outfielder, which you advocate, you don't see why people would be sceptical about the price being 2 of the team's best 3 relief prospects?

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=9474927

Rajai's arm strength can be seen in the video here. Looking at video highlights, he looks more comfortable in right field than left field.

if the guy was a legitimate pitching prospect, he wouldn't be pitching out of the bullpen in the minors

Not necessarily.  Every year two or three relievers seem to get chosen in the first round of the draft who were college relievers and the team has no intent on converting them to starting.  Drew Storen is an obvious example, but there are more.  If teams choose relievers in the first round of the draft, surely they can be considered prospects.  They have to project to be late inning relievers in my view, though.

Magnusen was a failed starter, but I didn't see him as a prospect.

Collins and Farquar I do see as prospects.  Collins brought back a handsome return.  Farquar brought home an ugly stepsister.

It seems a bit funny to me that two days after Farquar and Magnusen were mentioned as being offered to the Marlins, they wind up in a completely separate deal for Davis.  I think Oakland comes across as opportunistic here.  Or AA felt he simply had to get rid of a couple of these reliever types.

This is interesting: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/rangers-white-sox-blue-jays-interested-in-olivo.html Blue Jays looking at Miguel Olivo.   This indicates a lack of confidence in J.P. Arencibia as Starting Catcher.   I hope A.A. makes a decision quickly because good catching,at a good price, is a thin market.

This last season with Oakland, Raj put the ball on the ground a lot more. Is this what they want from him to put pressure on defenses or will they change his approach. The only real concern I have is that he didn't hit a lick against the AL East last year according to his B-Ref splits.

I think it will be nice to have a player that will put more pressure on teams for doubles or bunts. It gives the manager some choices to put the defense at a disadvantage. Anyway, I am excited by a move like this. Keep them coming GM AA. I wonder if this will be the season we start to see Wells move to a corner OF spot occaisonally? It has to happen someday, right?

.....If anything, the "varying levels of interest" is little more than lip service on the Jays' part......

I don't agree that it's merely lip service.  For one thing, the whole function of MLBTR is to separate the "lip service" from the genuine moves.  If the reports on MLBTR were based solely on the polite public comments of general managers, it wouldn't have much credibility.  In this case, the report is attributed to Fox Sports and its anonymous major-league source, so it doesn't sound like "lip service" to me.  No need for anonymity if you're merely spouting a polite comment.   Finally, the public comments by Anthopolous himself weren't exactly lip service either -- he said the Jays cannot be "left naked" at catcher.  If the Jays don't sign Olivo, they'll still need someone like him.  I still think it's reasonable that JPA should be eased into a major-league role, with 40 to 60 games at catcher in 2011, rather than being thrown into the deep end at 120 games.  I don't think Anthopolous gambles on a rookie at a key position like catcher (key to the young starters too) without a veteran option available beyond Molina.  If, by mid-season, JPA looks like he can handle the job full-time, then you can ease him into it.  But not in April with no other option except being "left naked."

It's possible, but as TJ said, I don't see Snider and Lind in the same outfield. As for the possible roster/lineup, there are many dominoes left to fall, but I'm going to speculate anyway.

What the team could do, if - and it's a big if - Manny signed, would be to go after a 2B like Hudson and then set the lineup as:
Vs RHP: Escobar (SS), Snider (LF), Ramirez (DH), Bautista (RF), Wells (CF), Lind (1B), Hill (3B), Arencibia (C), Hudson (2B)
Vs LHP: Escobar (SS), Snider (LF), Ramirez (DH), Bautista (1B), Wells (CF), Hill (3B), Arencibia (C), Hudson (2B), Davis (RF)

I would like A.A. to go after Zach Greinke, Alex Gordon and Yoakim Soria from K.C., except I think that slightly incompetent G.M. Dayton Moore demanding 5 times as much as those players are worth is ridiculous.

I think Marc Rzepczynski, Kyle Drabek or Zachary Stewart, and Travis Snider would be the maximun I would offer.   I think we need an Ace for 2011 and 2012 to allow our Aces to develop and give our starters less pressure to start.   I think we need a Top Closer for the next three years, because we don't have one in-house during that time.   We need someone better than Kevin Gregg.

Why?   We might compete for and be in the Post-Season in 2011.   We could compete for and be in the Post-Season in 2012.   We should compete for and be in the Post-Season in 2013.   We must be in the Post-season in 2014.   Any acqusitions should be with this in mind.    

I don't agree that it's merely lip service.  For one thing, the whole function of MLBTR is to separate the "lip service" from the genuine moves.  If the reports on MLBTR were based solely on the polite public comments of general managers, it wouldn't have much credibility.  In this case, the report is attributed to Fox Sports and its anonymous major-league source, so it doesn't sound like "lip service" to me.  No need for anonymity if you're merely spouting a polite comment. 

I dont think they necessarily report rumors on the basis of credibility. Take the following story for instance, which clearly is just some guy who works in baseball, speculating:

Can anybody name for me the last Blue Jays reliever to be drafted as such and make an impact at the MLB level?

The first thing that comes to mind is Adam Peterson, who the Jays drafted in the... top 5 rounds early in the 2000s? He got flipped for Shea Hillenbrand and flamed out, so in some senses he made an splash in the majors. I think otherwise the team has tried to convert all the relievers they've drafted into starters (Cecil in particular comes to mind.)

As for trading Magnusson and Farquhar... well, I can't see why there should be too much hand wringing. If there's one thing the Jays have been good at these last few years it has been assembling a decent pen on the cheap. Downs, Frasor and Camp, the front liners in the pen for the last few years, all were signed or traded for on the relative cheap (well, it took a while for Jayson Werth to get good in any case) and the only guys the Jays have paid big money for recently were BJ and Gregg. Carlson, Wolfe, Tallet, Accardo, and Roenicke have played roles (mostly not good ones) and were not big ticket acquisitions. Janssen, League and Purcey, and are the only guys that the Jays drafted to have spent significant time in the pen the last 5 years, and that's after they basically all flamed out as starters for one reason or another.

I think it's hard to understate the value that non-elite minor league relievers will have in the majors. If Farquhar and Magnusson have 3 good seasons combined in the majors it would be a suprise - nothing against them personally, but thats just what the situation is.

Greinke? My take is that he will end up either in New York or Texas, whichever one doesn't get Cliff Lee (who will be with one or the other of those two.) Yes, yest, the Yanks and Rangers are my favorite and home teams, respecitvely, but I am not as enamored with Greinke as many others, so hope neither overpays.

Check out BBRef for Greinke's most similars (Tom Bradley? Craig Swan? Atlee Hammaker?) and most simlars through age 26 (Ben Sheets? Ismael Valdez? Melido Perez?)  Not exactly a list of Cy Young winners and HOFers ... such comparisons are dicey, of course, but I personally expect Zach to implode soon, a la Barry Zito ...

BJ could move to 3B (he's played there before)

BJ Upton was a washout at every infield position he tried and there's no way he's returning. A great deal of his value is wrapped up in his defense in center field (though UZR wasn't kind to him in 2010). This makes him a useful player as a center fielder, even if he disappoints and doesn't develop offensively (despite teasing that he would, at age 22). I'm not sure that he carries much value outside of center field.

Would a total package of Stewart, JPA, Rzep, Sierra/Thames, Cooper, Brad Mills, and Justin Jackson get it done? Too steep of a price?

I imagine that any package for Justin Upton would have to include cheap, major league-ready talent like Snider and Cecil. And then tack on some minor leaguers.

My take is that he will end up either in New York or Texas,

One would imagine that someone with his disorder would want to stear clear of media hotbeds like New York and Boston. That said, maybe he feels he has it under control.

Texas would seem a "safer" destination.

Perhaps the best comp for Snider is Willie Horton; perhaps the best for Justin Upton is Ruben Sierra. 

I'll take "Controversial Texas Rangers" for $200, Alex ....

I'll take "Controversial Texas Rangers" for $200, Alex ....

Michael Young aside, are there any other kind?

Having seen both Magnuson and Farquhar pitch I would agree that neither was a sure thing.  I dont think Magnuson had a plus "out pitch" but he would use his height to get a lot of downward movement on the ball and induce ground balls.  Whether that would work in the major leagues was a question.  Farquhar was a more dynamic pitcher with his mid-90's stuff and the arm angles.  But side-arm pitchers have had a tough time being consistently successful in the major leagues without worrying about Farquhar's control issues.

Even knowing that both pitchers are risks to succeed in the majors, I still think the Blue Jays must believe Davis is more than a fourth outfielder for them to pay that price.

Boston's interest in Justin Upton has moved to the backburner in Arizona as a new team has made a strong push for his services.  That new team - TBJ according to a Rosenthal tweet and upcoming story on Foxsports.com.

Michael Young aside, are there any other kind?

Chuck, there's a Mr. Ryan who'd like to have a word.

And in a related tweet, Robin Ventura adds, "Chuck, RUN!"

Upton's contract has a clause allowing him to reject a trade to 4 teams.  Common sense would indicate that Toronto is probably one of those 4 teams, though this is strictly conjecture on my part.  

Or, it could be 4 large revenue teams that would have the resources to 'buy out' the clause. 

just that Rosenthal doesn't tend to get used by GMs like Gammons does, to float trial balloons as "rumours". 

But Rosenthal seems to have Boras' hand fit snuggly up *somewhere*. At least I often get that impression when reading his stuff.

If Arizona is shopping Upton then they need to make it seem that there is a lot of interest and teams with good prospects (Toronto) are interested.  It forces the price up for everyone else.  So I assume the leaks are planted deliberately, in Arizona, to Rosenthal to setup the "feeding frenzy".

The Upton potential trade is like a major free agent signing.  Probably 20 or more teams are interested and the winner will pay the highest price.  I don't necessarily seeing the Jays overpaying for Upton so even though the Jays have prospects they might not go far enough to get him.

The best chance for the Jays to get Upton is if Arizona is hot for prospects the Jays are not 100% committed to.  Now it can't be bit players but lets say Arizona wanted Zep as a key part of the deal, the Jays might say OK as Zep might have trouble getting into the Jays rotation next year.

The salary info at BB-Ref is a very nifty addition. Too soon for a reasonable payroll estimate tho. Right now it breaks down thus:

Gauranteed contracts: 5 players at $36.8M

Arbitration eligibles: 12 players at $46.8M

Unfilled spots: 8 players at $4.0M.

The arb-eligible players include Accardo, Encarnacion, Lewis, McGowan, and Tallet. Rajai Davis is not included as yet (2nd time arb eligible).

There is no way that I would include Snider as a part of any package for Upton, much less include him along with Drabek.

I don't know that anyone here has been endorsing that, just speculating that this is what Arizona might be asking for.

But Rosenthal seems to have Boras' hand fit snuggly up *somewhere*.

Boras' hand puppet of choice is Jon Heyman.

The salary info at BB-Ref is a very nifty addition. Too soon for a reasonable payroll estimate tho. Right now it breaks down thus:

Gauranteed contracts: 5 players at $36.8M

Arbitration eligibles: 12 players at $46.8M

Unfilled spots: 8 players at $4.0M.

Nonsense.

That's half again more than what any reasonable estimate of our arb eligibble players would be. part of that is EE being gone but that doesn't remotely account for all of it.

Here are the 12 they list as eligible, with their 2010 salary as they list it, and a reasonable guess at a raise::

EE (4.75) $6 mil

Bautista (2.4) $8 mil

Tallet (2) $2 mil (you don't get raises for almost 7 ERAs)

Camp (1.15) $2.2

Accardo !1.08) $1.2

Marcum (.85) $2.5

Janssen (.75) $1.5

McGowan (.5) $0.8

Lewis (.455) $1.7

Escobar (.435) $1.7

Litsch (.4147) $0.9

Morrow (.4098) $1.5

Thanks TamRa.

I have Toronto with Vernon Wells, Aaron Hill, Adeiny Hechavarria, John McDonald, Jose Molina, Adam Lind, Ricky Romero, Miguel Olivo buyout and Kevin Gregg buyout makes (7+2) at $40.75 MM.

I have Jose Bautista (4), Rajai Davis(2), Shawn Camp(4), Jeremy Accardo(3), Shaun Marcum(2), Casey Janssen(2), Dustin McGowan(2), Fred Lewis(1), Yunel Escobar(1), Jesse Litsch(1) and Brandon Morrow(1) makes (11) at maybe $30.0 MM.

The remaining players (7) are pre-arb. and are usually making under $500K.

Until they update: http://www.baseball-reference.com/ don't  blindly trust the numbers.

IMO

We have a better chance of acquiring Justin Upton that most other teams.   We can offer any of the following:

1)Travis Snider, J.P. Arrencibia, Brad Mills, Robert Ray and any of the Relievers from the Major League level;

2) Kyle Drabek, Zach Stewart, Henderson Alvarez, Chad Jenkins and others from the Minor League Pitchers;

3) Eric Thames, Moises Sierra, Darin Mastroianni, Brad Emaus, Kevin Ahrens, John Tolisano, Ryans Goins, Michael McDade. David Cooper and others from Minor League Batters.

I'm sure we can find a workable deal for a player, that's just like what A.A.is looking for.

To get Upton we need to give what the D'Backs need/want - HOWEVER - if by doing so we give up so much we stop us from being contenders - what's the point!

We NEED to have five starting pitchers - we have seven more or less ready for Prime Time: Morrow, Marcum, Romero, Cecil, Drabek, Scrabble and Stewart. Accordingly IF we REALLY wanted Upton we could give up two - ONE OF: Marcum, Morrow, Romero and Cecil and ONE OF: Drabek, Scrabble or Stewart.

The two pitchers above would provide the "Major's ready" part of the deal the next part would be prospects - I suggest as follows:

ONE OF: (D'Arnaud or Perez) ~~OR~~ ONE OF: (Gose or Hechaverria)

PLUS, TWO OF: Marisnick or Sierra or Thames or  Pierre or Jimenez or Jeroloman or Knecht (IF - this comes REALLY CLOSE to doing a deal but not quite enough then I'd go to THREE OF this last group)

That would give us (with only ONE other move): LF Snider, CF Upton, RF Wells, 3rd Bautista, SS Escobar, 2nd Hill, 1st Lind, C JPA and at DH Manny.

We could be very - very serious contenders in 2011 - IF - AA can find a few relievers somewhere. Other than the bullpen we'd look sweet - very sweet!

I have Toronto with Vernon Wells, Aaron Hill, Adeiny Hechavarria, John McDonald, Jose Molina, Adam Lind, Ricky Romero, Miguel Olivo buyout and Kevin Gregg buyout makes (7+2) at $40.75 MM.

I have Jose Bautista (4), Rajai Davis(2), Shawn Camp(4), Jeremy Accardo(3), Shaun Marcum(2), Casey Janssen(2), Dustin McGowan(2), Fred Lewis(1), Yunel Escobar(1), Jesse Litsch(1) and Brandon Morrow(1) makes (11) at maybe $30.0 MM.

The remaining players (7) are pre-arb. and are usually making under $500K.

Until they update: http://www.baseball-reference.com/ don't  blindly trust the numbers.

Couple of quibbles and clarifications...

1. I didn't count Adeiny's money even though it's listed as if it's a major league contract simply because he's not going to be on the major league roster - in my mind that's not major league payroll, no matter what the contract says.

2. The minimum guys are going to be making $500k this year rather than $400k.

n the Upton propositions, i might as well weigh in.

IMO, they like Montero enough that ofdfering them JPA has limited value and hurts us (with Buck off the market - unless we want to pay for Martinez) So I'm going to suggest:

One of Drabek, Cecil or Stewart (or Zep if they'd buy his as worth of this level but they likely wouldn't)

plus

One of d'Arnaud, Jimenez or Perez -or- Thames or Mastroianni

plus

Roenicke or Purcey

plus

lower level prospect along the lines of Seirra, Pierre, Ness etc

Thinking - the first two are the real meat of the deal and for all intents it would be two-4-one, including a reliever and a raw/distant prospect is a sweetener we can easily afford.

Okay, I accept Adeiny's costs as being part of other expenses ( Draft bonuses, International signings, etc.).   I will insist that buyouts be included in the 2011 salary calculations because you are buying Olivo and Gregg out of their 2011 contracts, not the 2010 contract already finished (Season end or World Series end?).

Over at  http://www.drunkjaysfans.com/ Keith Law suggests Marcum or Romero plus Snider and two top prospects for Justin Upton.   Anything else, might not get it done.   (Try Upton CF; Wells RF; Lewis LF; Davis 4th OF - Hill 2B; Escobar SS; Bautista 3B; Lind D.H.)   After all, do we have anyone of that caliber on our team yet?   Or do we evaluate our players, as better than they really are, on the open market?

What site, can I access, that tells me how much pre-arbitrations gets each following year, as per MLB contract?

"Keith Law suggests Marcum or Romero plus Snider and two top prospects for Justin Upton"

As long as AA doesn't suggest this Law can say what he wants. Who died and made Justin Upton into Wille Mays!!  Wasn't it just 2 years ago I was cutting him from my fantasy team. Get a grip out there. Unless Arizona wants to take V-Dub off of our hands AA wil be looking in other directions I hope. Like Victor Martinez. A switch hitter who can play some 1B, some C, some DH. Now that would be a good fit.

There is also a not insignificant chance that Upton is one of the best five players in baseball over the next five years.

The strikeouts are a warning sign, but we're dealing with a player who put up an OPS of .899 in the majors as a 21-year-old. Anthopolous has talked about acquiring superstar calibre players and Justin Upton fits that description. I don't think the team is blowing smoke here, as they have the young players and prospects Arizona is looking for.

It's fine to debate what packages of players you would and would not part with, but if the Jays do decide to pull the trigger on a trade, it's going to hurt. It should.

Does anybody think that Jose Bautista might be a player involved in the talks?  Law has suggested that Towers may be trading Upton because he has a two year window to win and wants to turn one major league into two or three.  We have to ask, what gave someone the impression that we made a strong push under this scenario?

Many are assuming it's Snider and Drabek.  But maybe it's Bautista, Cecil and prospects?

That would likely provide Arizona with 7+ WAR next season and would eliminate AA's Bautista dilemma.

....His long term value to the club is negligible, outside of the 2011 production and compensation draft picks....

So you're assuming that the Jays will have zero interest in signing Bautista beyond next season?  Or zero chance?  Or both?  Would you care to explain?  Because if the Jays have zero chance of signing good players who become free agents, it becomes virtually impossible for the Jays to become contenders (ever).  Unless they fluke into a great season by an entire lineup of young players in their years before free agency, which is a bit of a longshot.

As many others have noted, the Jays do have enough money to sign free agents if they're on the cusp of contending.  If that's true, then they could sign Bautista after 2011 if they're close to contending.  To argue otherwise is to argue that the Jays are doomed to be perennial small-budget also-rans.

And that's as good as the Jays can do. I don't foresee the Jays having many opportunities to acquire players who are already superstars. Maybe if they are one player away on the free agent market, but the Jays should be looking at opportunities to acquire potential superstars-to-be. Justin Upton fits that description. Whether that's worth Snider+ is a separate matter, but IMO Justin Upton's don't come on the market very often. He's already a good player with a chance to be fantastic.

...last year Chase played pretty neutrally and Upton didn't show a huge split.

Yes, and he had a much poorer year than 2009.  In a neutral park, he doesn't perform as well.  Park effects tend to vary from year to year, but if you take the numbers over several seasons, you get the truer picture.  That's why I look at the career numbers.  Don't get me wrong, he's a very good prospect, I just think it is important to take the results in context.

When I hear stuff like Law's suggestion for a trade, I just roll my eyes.  I wouldn't trade what he suggested (what was it, Marcum, Snider, Drabek and 2 top prospects?), for two Justin Uptons, let alone for one.

None of us 'know' what Snider will do, but his top age similar comp on Baseball-Reference is Ruppert Jones. Jones hit 33 home runs as a 24 year old, and never hit 20 after that. I think people have had their reasons to rave up Snider in the last year, but he's more of a question mark than a proven 'power hitter'.

The reasons people "rave up" Snider is because what he's done in the minors and pros at a very young age - quite similar to the reasons people are raving up Justin Upton.  I'm not sure those B-R comparables you've noted have ever been proven to predict anything - they're more anecdotal than anything.  And amongst Snider's most comparables by age are Willy Mays and Dave Winfield.

The fact is, Snider as a 21 and 22 year old, provided league average offense in a season's worth of at bats.  That portends quite well for the future - no raving required.

Romero, Snider and two top prospects for Upton?  Surely that's not enough for Kevin (CN) Towers...

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Justin Upton is not a superstar calibre player.  He's a player who has a decent chance to become one, as does Snider.  The difference is that his contract already assumes that he is going to be a very good player in a couple of years.  -- Mike Green.

I am a big appreciator of Keith Law's candour, desire to be knowledgeable and adding humour to do so in writing columns/chats. But, his whole trade proposal is beyond ridiculous. I can't believe the words/proposed trade even came from his lips/fingers. The players, plus paying Upton 50 million...Snider, Drabek, plus...Sorry Keith, a little to off the cuff this one time dude. Upton for Snider is even almost even for me as it is considering their age. You trade Snider now, and you get to watch what Cleveland did for a decade, and his name was Brian Giles.

I'm guessing for that at least the last 5 years, I've been thinking Kevin Towers is Kevin Malone.  Where'd this guy come from and what happened to Mr. Malone?  Why did I get confused on this one?  Did their paths intersect in So-Cal at some point?

I'll do some research, but if anybody knows the answer, it might save me some time.

Halycon (Toronto)
What kind of package would it take to get J. Upton to the Jays?

Klaw  (1:31 PM)
I would think that Towers would start with one of the major league arms - Marcum or Romero, most likely. If I'm Towers I aim high and ask for Snider too, plus two good prospects. Why not? You're trading an insanely valuable guy.