I will join the pile-on and agree that the award should not be forward-looking. The membership of the BBWAA is already more than adequately challenged just to meet its backward-looking duties.

Why must the voting for every flippin' award be more complicated than it needs to be?

As I understand it, Roy Halladay has more upside than (say) Kyle Drabek. He has less unrealized upside.

I think enough awards are already decided by reputation. No need to add ROY to the list.

I don't have ESPN insider, but Law isn't alone in praising Hoyer on the move. The analysis I've read has based the praise on Maybin's defence and his minor league hitting stats. Putting aside his 600 at-bats in the major leagues, San Diego's gotten a plus defensive CF who has put up an OPS in Triple-A of .862 as a 22-year-old and .915 as 23-year-old. Whether or not that wil be "pretty" in Petco is sort of besides the point; that's a prospect worth acquiring if you can do it as a reasonable price.

The other reason he may be calling a good get for San Diego is that the Padres got a .561 OPS from their primary CF. Tony Gwynn Jr is 27 and doesn't seem to be getting better. Maybin is younger and cheaper and likely to be, at absolute worst, as productive offensively. I wouldn't be surprised if Maybin to put up an OPS in the low 700s, which would be a huge improvement, but even the mid .600s would be an upgrade.

I wanted the Jays to pick Maybin over Romero in 2006 and would have traded Romero for Maybin for several years after that. I wouldn't now.

The Texan alphabet starts with W, don't it?

So we award Rookie of the Year based on the rookie equivalent of a top prospect list?  That's absurd.  I can't believe Law suggests such a thing.  Perhaps you could source this?

While it's hard for me to exactly source it, readers of Law's work will instantly recognize his ROY ideas because he espouses them often. Here's some QnAs from a Sept. chat :

Roger (CT) Do you treat ROY as MVP for rookies or do you feel there should be slightly different criteria?

Klaw  (1:58 PM) I think there should be some consideration of the long-term potential of candidates.

John (NYC) "I think there should be some consideration of the long-term potential of candidates." Why? I understand why you would want to factor that in but if the award is for the best "rookie" for that season, why are other criteria necessary?

Klaw  (2:17 PM) That's not what the award is. That might be your impression of it, but the definition is vague.

Bub (DC) Matusz started off great, then terrible, now he looks great again. Can he be a legitimate top of the rotation starter as soon as next season?

Klaw  (2:18 PM) I might still vote for him as AL ROY if I had that ballot. I certainly believe in his long-term value far more than I believe in Austin Jackson's, and the AL East is a brutal place to pitch, especially if you don't get to face the division's worst lineup. I'll say he's an ace in 2012 or 2013, with modest improvements next year.

If Law wants to adjust for age, context and experience, I can see the argument for that. Voting directly based on "long-term potential" and "long-term value" will just concede the award to the hype machine.

As you point out, Mike Cameron was a very underrated player. He was one of the better outfielders in baseball during his time with the Padres. As for Maybin, his defensive stats on Fangraphs aren't great (small sample size) and Tangotiger's Scouting Report has him at the same level as Wells. However, he rates quite highly on acceleration and sprint speed, but his reaction is rated below-average. That to me suggests someone who at least has the potential to improve as he gains experience and more coaching. At the least, his speed should be useful in San Diego's spacious outfield.