When all is said and done, the Blue Jays had a top 3 outfield last year, and were easily the second best hitting outfield in baseball, with the Rangers leading both categories. If you had taken wagers on this before the season, I think that you could have gotten pretty good odds, given that the Jays possessed a bottom third outfield in 2009 (at least I think this is reasonably true: Fangraphs doesn't seperate performance by position, so this year Aubrey Huff and his 5.7 WAR show up at both 1B and OF on the team leader boards despite a 60/40 playing time split, and the Jays led the bigs in value at 3B with Jose + E5. Similarily the Jays and the Rays are pretty close in the outfield this year, and Ben Zobrist had more at bats in the infield than Jose did, but probably not enough to move the Jays ahead of the Rays into second spot.) Anyway, how did they do it?
Well, the short answer is Jose Bautista. As you may have heard by now, Bautista was one of the 10 best position players in baseball this past year, and one of the best 3 or so in the American League. It also didn't hurt that Vernon Wells had his best season since 2006, and that the left field platoon performed reasonably well. Throw in a general lack of injuries (Snider and Lewis both missed time, but their injuries didn't overlap) and the fact that Wells and Bautista were always in the lineup as the team's two best hitters, and the result is that the Jays outfield was manned almost exclusively by the abovementioned four players - they accounted for just over 88% of the playing time in the outfield. DeWayne Wise filled in as the fourth/fifth outfielder later in the season accounting for another 5.5% of the team's outfield innings. Adam Lind played a bit of left during interleague play, and Mike McCoy, Jeremy Reed and John McDonald got the rest of the innings. Let's look at the individual players now.
Jose Bautista
Again, Jose's season is probably familiar to most of you, but the broad strokes of it are that he both upped his walk rate and cut his k rate by about 5% each. He also dramatically altered his swing, and as a result was one of the biggest fly ball hitters in baseball (though this approach didn't work as well for Aaron Hill.) Normally hitting a ton of fly balls is not an optimal offensive strategy: they get turned into outs with much greater frequency than every other type of batted ball. The only other players to loft more than 50% of their balls into the outfield - Aramis Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Alfonso Soriano, Hill, and Johnny Gomes - weren't exactly a murderers row this year. In some senses Bautista was very lucky, as slightly more than 1 in 5 of his fly balls went over the fence, a proportion that is almost twice what we would expect from a "normal" player. If you watched Jose play day in and day out though it would be hard to call what he did a fluke though, as most of his home runs were bombs. Throw in the fact that 53 of his 54 home runs were to left field, and most of those in the short corner, and it becomes easier to fathom how he hit all of them. Jose was also, if anything, slightly unlucky when it came to picking up hits on balls in play, with a very poor .233 BABIP. As I've mentioned though, because he hit so many fly balls and comparatively fewer line drives, this number is only slightly instead of massively unlucky. This season also leads one to wonder what 2011 will hold for him. It would be surprising if he hit 50 home runs again, just because no one regularly hits 50 homers these days, but unless you think this season was a total fluke, there is no reason to think Bautista couldn't settle in as a .265/.365/.520 hitter with 30 or so home runs.
Vernon Wells
Vernon rebounded from being one of the worst players in baseball in 2009, and only slightly better than that in 2007 and 2008, to have a very good 2010. The key to this was... well, he hit fewer singles and more doubles and home runs. That was about the only difference between 2009 and 2010. On a per at bat basis he struck out slightly more and walked slightly more (0.5% and 0.7%) and his BABIP was actually down a bit, to .272 from .278 the year before. But in 40 fewer at bats he had 26 fewer singles, 7 more doubles, the same number of triples and 16 more home runs. So in fewer at bats he added 55 more total bases, and his slugging percentage jumped by 115 points. Throw in a slightly higher batting average and a couple of more walks and HBP and that's Vernon's season. Can he repeat it in 2011? Well, I don't see any fundamental reason why not. He wasn't particularly lucky on balls in play, and only a tick above average in HR/FB%. He may hit a couple fewer home runs I suppose. His defense, subjectively, also looked better this year, and UZR agrees, though he still rates as a poor defender, and there isn't anyone in the system that is going to push him out of CF anytime soon anyway.
Travis Snider
Travis Snider's 2010 was a decidedly up and down one. He struggled mightily at the beginning of April before turning things around towards the end of the month and into May. However a wrist injury, coupled with an uneccesarily long rehab stint, saw him miss almost three months before returning to the bigs. He struggled again before turning things on in September and October, where he hit 6 home runs in 99 plate appearances... while striking out 24 times and walking twice. While Snider's final line wasn't overly impressive, there are positive signs. He struck out slightly less than in the past, albeit with fewer walks. He also murdered the ball, with a line drive percentage that would have about tied for the Major League lead had he played a full season. He still has some work to do on his game, but he is only 22. His defense could probably stand to improve also, though he's graded out at roughly average so far in his career according to UZR. I imagine forecasts for Snider in 2011 will vary wildly, but in my mind he still possesses star potential, and hasn't done anything on the field to change my perception. He may have to start 2011 strong though to avoid unfavourable comparisons to the last two serious Jays hitting prospects - Alex Rios and Adam Lind - who both were up and down in their first few years in the league.
Fred Lewis
After being picked up for essentially nothing from the Giants at the beginning of the year, Lewis was one of the pleasant surprises on the Jays this year, and after Travis Snider got injured played full time in left field while hitting leadoff. He performed reasonably well in this role, hitting slightly above league average while posting reasonable, but hardly outstanding, slugging and on base percentages. Lewis strikes out a fair amount and doesn't walk a ton, and while he has doubles power (31 in 428 AB) he doesn't homer a ton (8) or steal a whack of bases (17/23, easily leading the team.) He is also reliant on a high batting average on balls in play, with a career mark of .340. Given that he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard, this number seems likely to fall as he ages and his wheels begin to go. Lewis is also a mediocre defender - probably not as bad as his 2010 numbers, but not particularly good in the first place. He doesn't have a strong arm, and cannot play CF, struggling there in his few fill-in opportunities. His 2010 ended in September with surgery to remove a bunion, but by this point he was already being supplanted by Travis Snider in left. Lewis has been adamant that he wants to start, and it seems like this is unlikely to happen in Toronto going forward. He is still under team control, but with Snider ahead of him in left and with his lack of versatility, a non-tender or trade seems like the most likely possibility.
DeWayne Wise
Wise filled in admirably as the fourth outfielder in his second go round with the team, playing a bit in each of the outfield spots. A good defender but not much with the bat, he hit well enough as a fill in guy, though is unlikely to repeat his modest performance going forward. I suppose the team could bring him back in a similar limited capacity, as he can play all three outfield spots and has a bit of speed, but I would be surprised if the club didn't fill the fourth OF role with someone from within the system.
2011
Jose Bautista's contract is the biggest question in the outfield going into 2011. I imagine he will sign this year, as the Jays almost never go to arbitration, but whether its 1 year for 8 million or 3/32, 4/45, whatever, is anyone's guess. I think it's unlikely the team locks him up long term unless he wants to take a discount to stay in Toronto. He has to know that this is going to be perhaps the one chance for him to cash in with a long term contract, and he is a free agent after this season, so with a good year he could command big money. The Jays in turn would, I imagine, be reluctant to give him a huge contract after a career year. There is also some question as to whether Bautista plays third or right going forward. Unless the team swings a trade and brings in another outfielder, I don't think there is anyone in the system that is going to be good enough to warrant full playing time in the outfield in 2011. Mind you that's also true of 3B, where Encarnacion is the only other option. Elsewhere in the outfield Vernon and Snider are almost certain to return in CF and RF, while, as I've mentioned, I'd be surprised if Wise and Lewis were back, though Wise has a better shot. Spring training should determine who gets the fourth outfielder's job. Eric Thames and Darin Mastroianni are the only guys in the system that would realistically have a chance, and while Thames is the superior hitter, he can't (or shouldn't) play CF. I also get the sense that Mastroianni isn't held in particularly high regard in the organization, so even though he profiles as an ideal fourth outfielder (a singles hitter with blazing speed, who walks, steals bases at a high rate, and plays good defense across the outfield) the team may look outside the system to bring in someone on a one year deal.
