The difference between the Jays 2009 and 2010 starting rotations was like night and day. Or maybe just afternoon and afternoon.
Can you believe that people were worried about this starting staff before the season?
Seems silly now, but there certainly were a lot of question marks at the time. Halladay was gone, Marcum and Litsch were coming off of injury, nobody knew what to expect from Romero the second time around, and Morrow was Door Number 3. This is one of the reasons why the Jays were frequently picked to be the worst team in the league.
A little perspective.
In 2010, Jays starting pitchers were 10th in the league with 953.2 innings pitched; in 2009 they had been 9th with 964.
In 2010, Jays starting pitchers were 9th in the league with a 4.30 ERA (ERA+ 99); in 2009 they had been 6th with a 4.66 ERA (ERA+ 100).
In 2010, Jays starting pitchers were tied for the league lead, for the 34th straight year, with 1 starting pitching appearance per game played.
In 2010, Jays starting pitchers had 86 quality starts; in 2009 they had 78.
In 2010, Jays starting pitchers were 6th in the league with a 2.27 K/BB; in 2009 they had been 4th with a 2.18.
In 2010, Jays starting pitchers threw 3.79 pitches per plate appearance; that was up from 3.78 in 2009.
The big differences between last year and this year? Shaun Marcum and Brandon Morrow entered the rotation and Roy Halladay, Scott Richmond, and Brian Tallet left. And as you can see, the results were about the same. (In some ways they looked significantly better, but that, or some of that, may have just been the whole league starting to pitch better). The outlook, though, couldn't be more different. After 2009, there was the dread that things would get worse; after 2010, there's the basis for hope that things will get better.
Here's one thing that was way better in 2010: Toronto starting pitchers gave up way fewer home runs; 99 (4th best) versus 128 (4th worst) in 2009. Who's responsible for this difference? Seems to have been the switch from Richmond to Morrow, mostly; everything else is roughly the same.
Sure, there are always injuries, and young pitchers can lose effectiveness for no apparent reason, but a) there are quite a few good young pitchers coming up behind the front four of Romero, Marcum, Morrow, and Cecil, and b) I can't believe that 2010 represents a career year for either Morrow or Cecil. So I expect next year's starting pitching to be about the same quality, again, maybe a little better.
The "big" discussion about the rotation for next year, barring injury, is who's going to be the fifth starter. Please bear in mind that this isn't really a big thing. Sure, it helps to have a good fifth starter, but go back and look at the fifth-best starting pitchers for every team to win a World Series for the last forty years. How many of them were actually any good? I'm going to go out on a limb and guess "almost none". Still, it's worth paying attention to; candidates include Kyle Drabek, Shawn Hill, and Marc Rzepczynski, with dark horses like Scott Richmond, Jesse Litsch, Brad Mills, and Zach Stewart behind them. The Jays are shockingly deep in starting pitching; it's quite beyond my experience.
You may recall that we had a little contest going on this year, to see who could predict who would end up starting how many games for the Jays. I am in a position to reveal how everyone did on that. First, here's how the starts broke down:
Romero 32 (29 in '09)
Marcum 31 (0 in '09)
Cecil 28 (17 in '09)
Morrow 26 (0 for the Jays in '09)
Rzepczynski 12 (11 in '09)
Eveland 9 (0 for the Jays in '09)
Litsch 9 (2 in '09)
Tallet 5 (25 in '09)
Hill 4 (0 for the Jays in '09)
Drabek 3 (0 in '09)
Mills 3 (2 in '09)
Camp 0
ZJackson 0
Janssen 0 (5 in '09)
Jenkins 0
McGowan 0
Perez 0
Purcey 0 (9 in '09)
Ray 0 (4 in '09)
Richmond 0 (24 in '09)
Stewart 0
(other '09 starters: Halladay 32, Brian Burres 2)
Next, here's how many starts each of us guessed correctly, with notes about what we got right and wrong:
Ron 137 (picked the top 4 starters; could afford to waste 3 guesses on Halladay, Bruce Walton, and Ace; guessed Romero 32 exactly)
Timbuck2 122 (gave most of Cecil's starts to a range of other guys)
Thomas 120 (gave some of Cecil's and Morrow's starts to McGowan and Rzepczynski; guessed Romero 32 exactly)
christaylor 119 (spread the starts out too widely among the candidates)
ayjackson 117 (too heavy on Rzepczynski and McGowan, not enough on Cecil)
Geoff 117 (guessed Eveland 9 and Hill 4 exactly; didn't have enough faith in Marcum)
Mylegacy 115 (too heavy on Rzepczynski and McGowan, not enough on Cecil)
stevieboy22 114 (missed Cecil altogether; gave 10 starts to Janssen; guessed Romero 32 exactly)
Mick Doherty 112 (only guessed 6 pitchers; allocated 38 starts to Romero and 27 to Eveland)
John Northey 112 (guessed Romero 32 exactly and was close on Marcum and Morrow, but blew 22 starts on McGowan)
andrewkw 112 (too much Rzepczynski and Tallet, not enough Cecil and Morrow)
electric carrot 111 (guessed Drabek 3 and Mills 3 exactly; gave too many starts to McGowan, Purcey, and Rzepczynski)
martinthegreat 110 (missed Cecil altogether)
me 110 ((spread the starts out way too widely among the candidates; gave 24 starts to Eveland)
Mike Green 97 (zigged when he should have zagged when it came to Cecil, Eveland, McGowan, Morrow, and Rzepczynski)
Congratulations to Ron, who left the rest of the field behind easily. We should do this again next year. How long before pitchers and catchers report?
Can you believe that people were worried about this starting staff before the season?
Seems silly now, but there certainly were a lot of question marks at the time. Halladay was gone, Marcum and Litsch were coming off of injury, nobody knew what to expect from Romero the second time around, and Morrow was Door Number 3. This is one of the reasons why the Jays were frequently picked to be the worst team in the league.
A little perspective.
In 2010, Jays starting pitchers were 10th in the league with 953.2 innings pitched; in 2009 they had been 9th with 964.
In 2010, Jays starting pitchers were 9th in the league with a 4.30 ERA (ERA+ 99); in 2009 they had been 6th with a 4.66 ERA (ERA+ 100).
In 2010, Jays starting pitchers were tied for the league lead, for the 34th straight year, with 1 starting pitching appearance per game played.
In 2010, Jays starting pitchers had 86 quality starts; in 2009 they had 78.
In 2010, Jays starting pitchers were 6th in the league with a 2.27 K/BB; in 2009 they had been 4th with a 2.18.
In 2010, Jays starting pitchers threw 3.79 pitches per plate appearance; that was up from 3.78 in 2009.
The big differences between last year and this year? Shaun Marcum and Brandon Morrow entered the rotation and Roy Halladay, Scott Richmond, and Brian Tallet left. And as you can see, the results were about the same. (In some ways they looked significantly better, but that, or some of that, may have just been the whole league starting to pitch better). The outlook, though, couldn't be more different. After 2009, there was the dread that things would get worse; after 2010, there's the basis for hope that things will get better.
Here's one thing that was way better in 2010: Toronto starting pitchers gave up way fewer home runs; 99 (4th best) versus 128 (4th worst) in 2009. Who's responsible for this difference? Seems to have been the switch from Richmond to Morrow, mostly; everything else is roughly the same.
Sure, there are always injuries, and young pitchers can lose effectiveness for no apparent reason, but a) there are quite a few good young pitchers coming up behind the front four of Romero, Marcum, Morrow, and Cecil, and b) I can't believe that 2010 represents a career year for either Morrow or Cecil. So I expect next year's starting pitching to be about the same quality, again, maybe a little better.
The "big" discussion about the rotation for next year, barring injury, is who's going to be the fifth starter. Please bear in mind that this isn't really a big thing. Sure, it helps to have a good fifth starter, but go back and look at the fifth-best starting pitchers for every team to win a World Series for the last forty years. How many of them were actually any good? I'm going to go out on a limb and guess "almost none". Still, it's worth paying attention to; candidates include Kyle Drabek, Shawn Hill, and Marc Rzepczynski, with dark horses like Scott Richmond, Jesse Litsch, Brad Mills, and Zach Stewart behind them. The Jays are shockingly deep in starting pitching; it's quite beyond my experience.
You may recall that we had a little contest going on this year, to see who could predict who would end up starting how many games for the Jays. I am in a position to reveal how everyone did on that. First, here's how the starts broke down:
Romero 32 (29 in '09)
Marcum 31 (0 in '09)
Cecil 28 (17 in '09)
Morrow 26 (0 for the Jays in '09)
Rzepczynski 12 (11 in '09)
Eveland 9 (0 for the Jays in '09)
Litsch 9 (2 in '09)
Tallet 5 (25 in '09)
Hill 4 (0 for the Jays in '09)
Drabek 3 (0 in '09)
Mills 3 (2 in '09)
Camp 0
ZJackson 0
Janssen 0 (5 in '09)
Jenkins 0
McGowan 0
Perez 0
Purcey 0 (9 in '09)
Ray 0 (4 in '09)
Richmond 0 (24 in '09)
Stewart 0
(other '09 starters: Halladay 32, Brian Burres 2)
Next, here's how many starts each of us guessed correctly, with notes about what we got right and wrong:
Ron 137 (picked the top 4 starters; could afford to waste 3 guesses on Halladay, Bruce Walton, and Ace; guessed Romero 32 exactly)
Timbuck2 122 (gave most of Cecil's starts to a range of other guys)
Thomas 120 (gave some of Cecil's and Morrow's starts to McGowan and Rzepczynski; guessed Romero 32 exactly)
christaylor 119 (spread the starts out too widely among the candidates)
ayjackson 117 (too heavy on Rzepczynski and McGowan, not enough on Cecil)
Geoff 117 (guessed Eveland 9 and Hill 4 exactly; didn't have enough faith in Marcum)
Mylegacy 115 (too heavy on Rzepczynski and McGowan, not enough on Cecil)
stevieboy22 114 (missed Cecil altogether; gave 10 starts to Janssen; guessed Romero 32 exactly)
Mick Doherty 112 (only guessed 6 pitchers; allocated 38 starts to Romero and 27 to Eveland)
John Northey 112 (guessed Romero 32 exactly and was close on Marcum and Morrow, but blew 22 starts on McGowan)
andrewkw 112 (too much Rzepczynski and Tallet, not enough Cecil and Morrow)
electric carrot 111 (guessed Drabek 3 and Mills 3 exactly; gave too many starts to McGowan, Purcey, and Rzepczynski)
martinthegreat 110 (missed Cecil altogether)
me 110 ((spread the starts out way too widely among the candidates; gave 24 starts to Eveland)
Mike Green 97 (zigged when he should have zagged when it came to Cecil, Eveland, McGowan, Morrow, and Rzepczynski)
Congratulations to Ron, who left the rest of the field behind easily. We should do this again next year. How long before pitchers and catchers report?
