Bullpen as weak link, Gregg as Matsuzaka, Downs as icon, Roenicke as Purcey, and absolutely no idea what next year's pen looks like.


How They Did

Not great. Here's where they ranked in a few important stats:



By almost every measure of performance, this was a below-average bullpen. It still did more good than harm, according to the run expectancy tables that spit out WPA stats. However, given that (1) offense was way down this year and (2) bullpens tend to outperform starters, a 0.38 WPA is unimpressive. (The Jays' starters had 3.25 WPA, second-best in the AL. As a unit, compared to the hitters, fielders and relievers, they were clearly the strength of the team.)

I'm going to harp on WPA more than the other stats here. The bullpen, as a whole, should be evaluated based on its contribution to helping the team win. I try to avoid reducing things to one catch-all stat, but it's handy to have a measure of what the Jays' pen did to help them win games. To do that, it's ideal to use a stat that emphasizes high-leverage situations. WPA fits that bill. (I guess we might as well run through the standard WPA disclaimer: it's not park-adjusted, it's based on stale run expectancy tables, those tables don't know who's on deck, and so on.)

Here are the individual bullpen stats that added up to those totals. (Others: Brad Mills threw 7 innings. Jeremy Accardo, Robert Ray, Taylor Buchholz, Merkin Valdez and Marc Rzepczynski made cameos. Brian Tallet also started 5 games, which I left out of those numbers.)



A few things jumped out at me. One was Kevin Gregg's -0.86 WPA.

Here's how the other AL closers did:

Joakim Soria 4.65
Rafael Soriano 4.06
Neftali Feliz 3.35
Chris Perez 2.49
Brian Fuentes 2.32
Mariano Rivera 2.24
Matt Capps 1.69
Andrew Bailey 1.59
Jose Valverde 1.35
Jonathan Papelbon 1.05
Mike Gonzalez 0.00 (Koji Uehara 1.27)
David Aardsma -0.18
Bobby Jenks -0.24 (Matt Thornton 2.93)

Nevertheless, I am happy to back off my stance that the Kevin Gregg signing was atrocious. After you adjust for the AL East, he was arguably an above-average reliever.

The Kevin Gregg Experience

Gregg had a few bad outings, but they never snowballed. He stabilized the position. This is exactly what last-place teams are looking for in a free-agent closer. When wins and losses don’t really matter, it’s fine to be the worst closer in the league as long as you’re consistent and credible. There’s no shame in it, either. Closers, as a group, are so good that being 14th best is not a crime. I would say that, against all odds, the Jays made out well on the Gregg signing. I was very opposed to it at the time, and I wouldn’t do it again, but I’m happy to be wrong.

In fact, I actually found Gregg to be the most interesting pitcher on the 2010 Jays – impressive when the competition includes a TJ success story, a diabetic rushed-phenom-turned-bust-turned-phenom, an unheralded ace reliever with the majors’ dirtiest curveball, a pie-throwing groundball machine who K'd 9 Yankees in 4 innings, the franchise top prospect, and Brian Tallet. Gregg is notable for many reasons – for starters, his glasses, his confident mound presence, and his daring choice of entrance music, a neo-Nashville cover of Hank Williams, Jr.’s “A Country Boy Can Survive.”

Beyond the superficial stuff, Gregg completely overhauled his pitching style at some point last winter, and transformed from an NL Central arsonist to an AL East closer. The 2009 Kevin Gregg was a fastball/slider guy. The 2010 Kevin Gregg used a nasty cut fastball more than 25% of the time, a pitch he had never featured, and something he hadn’t used regularly in three years. It turned out to be very effective. Gregg pitched off his fastball and cutter with a big slurve. It was a competely different approach, and it worked, which is remarkable.

Gregg was also an unrepentant nibbler who refused to challenge hitters under any circumstances. 4.3 pitches per PA is very, very high for a pitcher – that’s a number reserved for the Jack Custs and Adam Dunns of the world. Kevin Gregg made the average hitter look as selective as David Ortiz. This was frustrating to watch at times, but nibbling does tend to depress HR rate and BABIP, and Gregg never got hit particularly hard. I actually think this approach probably got the most out of his talent.

In short, Kevin Gregg reinvented himself as the reliever version of Daisuke Matsuzaka. And it worked.

Almost all recent Blue Jay relievers have been, or at least tried to be, strike throwers. The Kevin Gregg experience was totally different. I like watching diverse players, and in a rebuilding year, I did kind of enjoy watching Gregg do his thing. Maybe he'll be even better next year. (I'm still throwing the book at Joaquin Benoit.)

Appreciating Scott Downs

Another pitcher who's in line for a big contract is Scott Downs, who turned in a typically excellent season as a high-leverage reliever. I saw a comment somewhere the other day – I won't rehash it here – suggesting that the Jays shouldn't bring Scott Downs back next year because they've tried him and it didn't work. Now, I probably wouldn't pay Downs the money he will command on the open market. By letting Downs walk, the Jays will gain a compensation draft pick, and anyway it's likely that Downs' next contract will be so big that its trade value on April 1 will be roughly zero. But the idea that Downs should be replaced because he's inadequate? That's nuts.

This calls for some perspective on Scott Downs. Here are his total stats as a relief pitcher for the Toronto Blue Jays, from 2005 to 2010.

329 appearances
323.1 innings pitched
2.59 ERA
5.36 WPA
Opponents hit .219/.292/.329
20.5% K
8.4% BB
1.8% HR
57% GB

There is no cherry-picking at all here. These stats include his early struggles and his battles with injury. They scream out that Downs has consistently been very good.

I’d go so far as to say Scott Downs is the most accomplished Blue Jays relief pitcher of the past 17 years. Who’s better? Paul Quantrill? Dan Plesac? Kelvim Escobar, B.J. Ryan, Billy Koch, Tanyon Sturtze... the floor is open to suggestions, but I think Downs beats them all. I’m going to miss him.

Easing David Purcey In

One nice thing about the 12-man pitching staff is that it lets you ease a pitcher or two into the majors in low-leverage situations. The White Sox are very good at this kind of thing – think of Sergio Santos and Matt Thornton as examples of projects who put it together at the big-league level. It’s exactly what Cito Gaston did with David Purcey. In each of Purcey’s first 10 appearances, he entered with the Jays trailing. One time, the score was 1-0; the other nine times, the outcome of the game was long decided. Purcey racked up a 2.25 ERA over those 10 appearances and forced his way into some higher-leverage situations. He continued to pitch well the rest of the way. (In fact, his total stats are inflated wildly by two bad showings later in the year, both in blowouts. He did well with the spotlight on him.) It’s an open question whether Purcey will actually be a reliable reliever going forward, but his 2010 was encouraging.

Personally, I hope the Jays give this treatment to Josh Roenicke next year. Roenicke has very little to prove in the minors, and his talent speaks for itself, but he’s always been hit hard in the majors. He's 28 and running out of time to break into the show. If it worked for Purcey...

The 2011 Bullpen: internal candidates

There are a lot of question marks, and a lot of plausible pitchers. Like...

Gregg (FA): Thanks for the memories. I'd be surprised if he didn't earn a multi-year deal with his performance this year.
Downs (FA): See Gregg. A hefty three-year contract probably isn’t worth the risk.
Camp: Most reliable righty reliever on the team this year, and a no-brainer tender. He’s come a long way. Camp pitches like a softer-tossing Tim Hudson. Would be one of the least charismatic closers in baseball history, and if he’s the best reliever on the team, the pen is probably going to be below average again. However, bringing him back for 2011 is an easy decision. (Unless someone wants to trade for him...)
Frasor (FA): I have absolutely no idea what the market for his services is going to look like. Not worth $9 million over 2 years; certainly worth $1.5 million over one year. 
Purcey: A lock for next year’s bullpen, and deservedly so, but I’m not convinced yet. Although he was almost unhittable in 30-some innings last year, he’s an enormous flyball pitcher with a history of control issues. If he can keep a lid on the walks, he might just be a very effective short reliever. Fingers crossed.
Janssen: Missed more bats than usual. Got hit harder than usual. Still a big-league pitcher, far as I can tell.
Carlson: Trick pitcher. You’d probably want to have another lefty or two beyond Purcey.
Roenicke: I’d carry him as the 12th man, as a project, regardless of who else is in the pen. 
Rzepczynski: A starter with serious upside, scouts be damned, but he tends to run deep counts and tire out. In the bullpen those aren’t really issues, so I have little doubt that he’d be an effective reliever, if the Jays are convinced that Drabek is ready to be given the ball every fifth day. I still see him as a starter in the long view, but this year, Toronto needs bullpen arms more.
Morrow: Just kidding.
Buchholz: Whatever. (And this is my United States of Whatever.) Buchholz had outstanding peripherals for a Colorado pitcher before an elbow injury derailed him in 2009, so maybe he was brought in to be something more than a warm body. No harm in buying a lottery ticket, as long as you can assess whether it's a winner.
Mills: Why not? Could be useful as a change of pace guy, while he bides his time before he’s inevitably traded to the NL.
Accardo: My lying eyes say he gets hit harder, and more often, than any Jays pitcher since Josh Towers. I’m ready to turn the page, but the stats aren’t so sure. I will trust the team’s judgement here.
Richmond: Devastating slider, control, not much else. One-trick ponies do better as short relievers. People used to think Chad Gaudin was a future closer, right?
Ray: See Mills.
Magnuson and Farquhar: I have no idea and will defer to the minor-league experts. I certainly wouldn’t dismiss either out of hand, especially not Magnuson.
Stewart: Probably a long shot to start the year in the majors. But if he continues to pitch like he did in the second half this year, he could make the leap anytime. If the Jays contend, they’re likely to have a few useful secret weapons waiting in the minors.
Hill: Starter or bust?
Lewis: After a respectable stint in the majors, he had a sore shoulder and was shut down. Hard to count on him for anything.
Drabek: Doesn’t fancy himself a relief pitcher.
McGowan: Who knows?
Hentgen: For closer.
Sturtze: Free agent.

It would be nice to pick up a good veteran reliever on the sly. If Gregg or Frasor (or, miraculously, Downs) could be had cheaply, I'd welcome them back. The market for relievers is unpredictable. Joaquin Benoit would be a nice pickup, and if the Red Sox could be sold on trading Jonathan Papelbon's contract for nothing, I'd pull the trigger on that, too. At some point, the Jays will need to find themselves a dominant short reliever. Sure, you can win without one, but it's hard. The closers' WPA scores speak for themselves.

Who's actually going to make the team next year? Your guess is at least as good as mine, and probably better. It'll be an interesting winter.