No Hechevarria.  Assuming that BA doesn't project much offensive potential, which I can't say I completely disagree with.

I thought they may be higher on Perez and, although I'm not surprised to see Wojciechowski on the list, I thought he may a bit lower. I also thought Gose may have been a couple of spots lower, although he does have a lot of attributes Baseball America loves and is perhaps the team's most divisive highly-rated prospect. The opinions on him differed noticeably when Da Box compiled our Top 30 prospect list.

Interesting list, in particular:

-          Deck being rated that highly, given how many online pundits suggested he had an underwhelming ceiling.

-          Asher Woj being listed a head of Sanchez: I understood Sanchez to have the higher ceiling.

-          JP ahead of Perez: Ditto with Perez having a higher ceiling. I always understood BA to hold ceiling is the highest regard, while not weighting proximity to the majors very heavily.

BA obviously places a lot of weight on draft position, and has always done so.  Last year, Jenkins was their #3 prospect and Cooper their #4.   Jenkins (like McGuire) was considered to have the best slider in the organization. 

I agree that draft position should be accorded some weight, but not to the degree that BA does. 

BA rated Jose Iglesias as Boston's #2 prospect.  Both their bats are pretty raw to say the least.  Is there that much difference in their gloves?

Reply fail.  My comment is in regard to Hechavarria's absence.

That is a tremendous Top-10, IMO. All 10 are currently studs in their respective leagues, and all have legit impact MLB starter upside. One of the best top-10s we've seen in a long while. Hell, all 10 of those guys could get consideration for a top-100 list.

And I would wager that there's few Top-10s around baseball that the likes of Hechevarria, Thames, Alvarez, Jimenez, and Jenkins wouldn't crack.

That's a very encouraging ranking for McGuire, too.

In other prospect news, Eric Thames was the only Blue Jay named to the Arizona Fall League's Rising Stars game Saturday (9 pm. ET on the MLB Network). The rosters are based more on prospect rankings than players' performance so far in the AFL. For example, KC high prospect Eric Hosmer (a massive fail so far in the AFL, with a .179 batting average and .490 OPS) was named at 1B ahead of Mike McDade (hitting .345 with a .949 OPS). Thames for that matter probably gets into the game on his prospect rep more than his performance (.254 BA, .816 OPS). Fifty at-bats in the AFL shouldn't affect prospect status, but McDade is doing very well in all respects. He's from Las Vegas so he must like the desert climate.

Not suprised by the BA Top 10 list. Gose is my favourite position prospect and also No. 3 on my own list. As mentioned, there is a pronounced bias toward draft status and toolsy players. Interesting and good news about McGuire and Sanchez' development.

Iglesias has, by all accounts, a significantly better bat, but a lesser glove than Hechevarria. 

Most accounts give the better glove to Iglesias as well, and some have even labelled him the best defensive infielder in the minor leagues.

I wonder if draft position isn't giving McGuire a bit more juice than his actual skills warrent?

I'd like to be wrong on that because if he's #2 in that crowd it is excellent news indeed.

I'm a bit surprised to see Woj in the top 10 as well (as opposed to Alvarez), otherwise it looks much as I would have expected.

~TamRa

Two comments - lots of really good guys in that list, and not on it. Personally, I'd have McGuire lower - 12 to 16 maybe. Other than that - while I rank some different nothing to go to war about.

In the "Chat" BA's writer, Natan Rode says that Sam Dyson just had Tommy John surgery - that I hadn't heard.

Also, Rode thinks the Jays prospects could be as high as 5 or as low as 15 when they do the figures. Also, he REPEATEDLY remarks that the Jays system is deep and strong. Says if lots of the guys who'll be at Lansing in 2011 - and others in the lower ranks - develop like they should/can/might then this system could really take off like KC's.

Ooh, irony alert ...

We can be more like the Royals!

Cue Bowling for Soup's hit 1985 ...

(Not picking on you, MyLegacy -- just thought it was kinda funny.)

Funny enough, I just finished reading Joe Posnanski's post that had the '85 Royals as one of the worst World Series winners ever.

Some worthwhile notes from Callis via twitter for today.

- He quite likes Hecheverria. Hech not being on the top 10 is a function of the quality of the other 10.
- He believes that D'Arnaud has a higher ceiling than Perez.
- Brett Cecil was not part of Toronto's projected 2014 rotation because he expects the Jays to have 5 better pitchers than Cecil.

The Jays system is bottom-heavy enough that I wouldn't expect much love outside of Sir Mix-A-Lot but it really seems like most questions about missing players can be answered by "they like that player but really think there are [x] better players."

I believe the chat concerning Sam Dyson might have been misunderstood unless it's so recent that nothing about it has yet been posted anywhere. He did have TJ in 2007 and I am wondering if that is to what Rode was referring. Anyone know for certain, please post. I think Dyson is a very good prospect and would rank in the top 15 in many systems, maybe higher without the injury history.

Tom (San Francisco, CA): Where does Sam Dyson begin next year? If his arm holds up, would you take him over Stewart as the closer of the future?

Nathan Rode: Just underwent Tommy John surgery so he'll miss 2011. I'd give Stewart every chance to start at this point. And I'd like to see Dyson stay healthy. I'll go Stewart at this point.

So that's Bryan Smith, Nathan Rode and John Sickels who like Eric Thames and Keith Law who says he's a non-prospect.  I like Keith, but he seems to be flippant at times.  Not the best attribute for a talent evaluator.

A lot of exciting players in the Jays' system right now. I love that the organization is getting more athletic (with up-the-middle talent like Gose, D'Arnaud, Perez, Hechavarria and Marisnick).

Drabek and Arencibia will presumably be missing from next year's list, but AA could really stockpile the farm system if they amass a half-dozen or so extra picks this off-season (and Rogers continues to spend on draft talent). As was pointed out by Nathan Rode in BA's prospects chat, a lot of the better prospects are currently in the lower echelons of the system.

More BA, this time on Syndergaard,

Syndergaard isn't maxed out, but he's a big, big dude already. Might be 6-foot-6, 215 at this point and might be a 6-6, 6-7, 230-pound guy when it's all said and done. His fastball touched 95 in instructs. He has a good changeup and can spin a breaking ball.

So what did we learn from the BA chat today other than the Dyson info?

While Adeiny Hechavarria and Eric Thames missed the top ten they are still considered excellent prospects.  The Jays system is much stronger than last season so some worthy players have to fall outside the top ten.

Long term BA is more bullish on D'Arnaud than Arencibia

Nathan Rode likes Kellen Sweeney.  I assume he won't be far from the top ten.

He has given up on Ahrens, Jackson and Tolisano

Henderson Alvarez missed the top ten because he didn't miss enough bats this season

Adonis Cardona did make the top 30 ( He's in the 30. He has a projectable frame and will likely add to his fastball that already sits 89-91 and touches 93. He needs work on his secondary stuff and the delivery is a little violent.)

He is lukewarm on Mastroianni, sees him as a fourth outfielder type mainly valuable for his speed.

Says Syndergaard is a big guy (Syndergaard isn't maxed out, but he's a big, big dude already. Might be 6-foot-6, 215 at this point and might be a 6-6, 6-7, 230-pound guy when it's all said and done. His fastball touched 95 in instructs. He has a good changeup and can spin a breaking ball.)

 

All in all there is a little bit of new information here but dedicated minor league followers already knew most of what was discussed today.

my points of curiosity-

Nothing at all said about Jenkins?

Any mention of the idea that Perez might change positions if d'Arnaud is entrenched?

No comment at all about Thon?

How come mcdade gets no love? Even during the season while leading the league in homers at the mid point and season end he was passed over for all star consideration.

will be interested to know what the top 30 looks like when that list comes out.

~TamRa

Personally, I'm pleased with the job that BA did... can't really argue with any of it. A lot of interesting players and it's an exciting time to be a prospect watcher. I have a lot of excitement for what I'm hearing about Aaron Sanchez.

Anyone care to breakdown what a power arm entails?

N Feliz throws in the upper 90s so he is a power arm, M Rivera I believe throws in the lower 90s so he is not a power arm. For usefulness to a ML team there has to be an acceptable level of control.

Can you still be a power pitcher with excellent other than FB pitches. The Curve, Slider, Change etc... that all come in at under 90 mph. You are getting many strike outs with great stuff but your FB is low 90s at best. For example Zep got 9Ks on NYY in 5 IP in his last start, so am I correct in saying that he is NOT a power pitcher. Zep & J Carreno get lots of strike outs but H Alvarez does not but his FB is mid 90s and may go higher considering that he is so young and could get stronger.

I am trying to construct our 2011 potential bullpen. I see lots of talented unproven & recently recovered arms in the mix. I fully expect a huge number of arms and expect many break outs given the opportunity available as the pen gets built over 2-3 years. I want to categorize the candidates as power arms or not.
I think C Janssen can eventually get back to his 2007 form, some labeled him as one of the best set up men in the league. His 94 mph at best FB means that he is not a power arm and his K numbers don't overwhelm.
K Gregg was considered "he got the job done" and is not considered an elite or developing elite closer.
J Fraser's 96 mph & J Roenicki, D Purcey & R Lewis also have the 95+ mph FB mean that they are power arms. I want to track the 2 sets of arms as power and not power as they refine themselves.
The eventual elite close that we will require can arrive with a big reputation or potential or could sneak in with little fanfare.

TamRa:

Jenkins was discussed but all Rode said is that he needs be be more consistent.  He is not a disappointment yet.  (Remember too that Dane Johnson praised Jenkins progress in his year end interview).

Perez was mentioned in a general catcher question and Rode said that Blue Jays personnel told him Perez is athletic enough to play another position.  However in my opinion catchers are so valuable that the Jays will leave Perez at catcher for as long as possible.

On Thon Rode said "He's a good athlete with good strength. He's not a flashy defender at short but looks to be steady over there. "

 

Wacker:

McDade can hit the long ball but as they say that is his main tool.  He has a very wide body and he is not a good runner so he needs to hit enough to be a first baseman or a DH.  That means he has to be able to hit 30+ home runs with a .270 average.  McDade has a chance to get there but that is the most competitive spot in baseball, the no field, good hit slugger.  Until evaluators are convinced McDade can deliver the power at the major league level he will be downgraded. 

 

bpoz:

There is no strict definition of a power arm.  A mid-90's fastball and a healthy number of strikeouts would generally be considered a power arm.

Thanks gerry

to be clear, I'm no advocate of moving Perez off position. I'd leave him behind the plate right through until he got to the majors and IF when he had done all he could do in the minors d'Arnaud (or JPA) were entrenched behind the plate, then - THEN you ask yourself where else can he play (or alternately, where can I trade one of these guys for something I really need)

it would be insanity to move him off-position before then unless he showed himself incapeable of the job.

Looks like Mastro just set a Venezuelan record - last done in 1965 by Vic Davilillo. (Oldtimers will remember Vic.)

Prior to his last at bat last night - he had 9 hits in his last 9 official at bats - with 3 walks sandwiched in between.

LOL

Hey Sonny, toss me a..... Oh wait. I don't consider myself an oldtimer but I do remember Vic Davalillo. Even had his baseball card once. Now I can say with all honesty that I don't remember Yo-Yo but then again us almost oldtimers sometimes do forget things :)

I remember Davalillo well. He played into his 40s.  Actually, he's a pretty good comp for Mastroianni.  He made his major league debut at age 26, hit line drives, had decent but not great control of the strike zone, very little power, played a great defensive centerfield for a few years, and stole bases with moderate effectiveness.

When Davalillo went on that hitting streak for Zulia, he had the home-field advantage, having been born there.

Mike - I think the only difference would be size as Vic was pretty small.

Mastro certainly isnt big  - but I think he has Davilillo by a couple inches in height and about 40 pounds,

Mastro is also a more effective base stealer. I have no idea how strongly stolen base success rate translates from the minors to the majors, but I suspect that by the upper levels of the minors, one can begin to make some predictions as to how successful a player may be in the majors.

Speaking of speed and stolen base success rate, Davey Lopes is on the market after failing to agree to a new contract with the Phillies. He's widely acknowledged to be the best base stealing coach in the majors and the stats show that Philadelphia ran more and much more successfully after he joined their staff.

If AA wants to continue his trend of investing money where other teams do not, I would hope he's giving Lopes's agent a call. The difference between the sides was rumoured to be only $50,000 or so and Lopes is likely worth more than his salary. One begins to dream of how he may work with Mastro and improve Snider, Wells, Hill and Bautista.

There are other considerations, such as not wanting to disrupt the coaching hierarchy and the precedent that may impact the salaries of the other coaches, but if Farrell and AA want to get this team running more frequently, Lopes would be the perfect guy to supplement that plan.

Baseball America rated Zach Stewart as having the best fastball in the system.

Who did they rank as having the best fastball in the system last year?

Davalillo had a bit more pop than Mastroianni when he arrived.  I did not realize that (like Adam Loewen) he began his career as a pitcher, and that was the reason for his late arrival in the majors.

Oldtimers will remember Vic

Yeah, right.

I remember him best as part of the Dodgers' geriatric pinch-hitting combo in the late 1970s - Manny Mota from the right side, Davalillo from the left. But for some reason I always knew stuff about him that I couldn't possibly be remembering, in particular that he was putting up a Rookie-of-the Year season until Hank Aguirre broke his arm.

Stewart was rated as having the best fastball in the system last year as well.  The year before, it was Alan Farina. 

Just to confirm my information. Stewart 98mph, Farina 94?, Farquar 97?.

I read a lot of pretty good things about Marcum over the years, when he was in the minors. They never said that he throws hard, but it was always "pounds the strike zone". I hope I am correct in saying that phrase means that the pitcher has good control (throws strikes) with his particular arsenal of pitches.
That type of pitcher may describe A Liebel who had a very good 2009, but injured in 2010. Also R Boone. I have no idea how much if any ML success they will have. Maybe a S Camp type of reliever, I don't know.

What made Marcum such an interesting prospect was the combination of good control and his super change-up (which led to a great K rate). 

He's not a prospect, but he is a minor league free agent, a perfectly reasonable depth catcher and a Canadian.  That would be Max St. Pierre.

I don't remember looking at Liebel's 2009 and thinking "very good"

He's not a prospect, but he is a minor league free agent, a perfectly reasonable depth catcher and a Canadian. That would be Max St. Pierre.

He's also not a minor league free agent anymore. St. Pierre re-signed with the Tigers this afternoon on a minor league contract.