Now the off-season gets interesting.  

Jeff Blair, on the Bob McCown segment  of the Fan 590, said, he would trade Shaun Marcum to Boston Red Sox for Jonathan Papelbon in a heartbeat (because of Marcum's delivery - a risk of going on the D.L.).   He'd also sign Javier Vazquez if we traded Marcum.   Jeff Blair said Kerry Wood can be a fit as he can flat out close.   Wow!   ( I regularly PVR the 3 hour Bob McCown segment.)

I expect Alex Anthopoulos to look outside for a Top Closer.   We don't, as yet, have anyone good enough to close that well.   I'd like to think anyone we go after is worth keeping 2-3+ year, giving this team some continuity at this position they've been missing.   Why?   We might make the post-season in 2011.

Do we go after a trade?   Who?

Do we go after a Free Agent?   Who?

Wow!   Didn't see this coming.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/blue-jays-acquire-miguel-olivo.html

What happens to J.P. Arencibia?   He must be wanted in a trade.

Olivo is a Type B.

A.A. can pick up $2.5 MM option, or pay the $500K buyout and take the pick.

Olivo is a Type B.  A.A. can pick up $2.5 MM option, or pay the $500K buyout and take the pick.

It sounds like to me AA is buying a compensation round pick for a half million.

Is AA the most creative GM in baseball, or is that just me?

And someone said the off-season was boring.  http://www.battersbox.ca/users.php?mode=profile&uid=13566

Scott Downs,Type A, will reject arbitration, wanting a 2-3 year contract.   It is highly unlikely we will gain a first round pick, as he will be a 'protected pick' signing or someone second Type A signing.   (Supplemental First Round Pick + 2nd or 3rd Round Pick.)   Jason Frasor, Type A, will most likely accept arbitration, as it's unlikely he gets an offer as a Type A.   Toronto will not offer arbitration.   John Buck, Type B, will reject arbitration, wanting a 2-3+ year contract.   (Supplemental First Round Pick.)   Kevin Gregg, Type B, will reject arbitration for a 2-3 year contract.   (Supplemental First Round Pick.)   Miguel Olivo, Type B, will reject arbitration for a 2-3 year contract.   (Supplemental First Round Pick.)  

I might be wrong about Downs, Frasor, Gregg or Olivo, but I don't think A.A. would.   Having four Supplemental First round picks and an additional 2ND or 3RD round pick make the 2011 draft look very good.   A.A. has been speaking with all the other GMs about their off-season plans.   If he's found the player(s) he's looking for - too much - not available, he might have to sign (a) Type A Free Agent(s) to fill his voids.   Having an extra Supplemental First round pick might compensate for a loss of the 21st pick, with possibly the 2nd round pick as well.

Rejecting Kevin Gregg's option(s) was easy, so is not wanting Downs and Frasor back.   Toronto's Bullpen ranked 10th out of 14 AL teams.   We have too many relievers without options.    I believe the PTBNL will be one of those relievers.   I future believe 2-3 relievers will be non-tendered and 1-3 more being traded.   This off-season is about making this Team better, starting with the bullpen.   Bringing back too many current relievers defeats the purpose.

Of course, there is the possibility Olivo accepts arbitration.  In which case the Jays have a decent catcher on a reasonable one year deal.

So either way, not too bad.

A.A. is amazing.   If Olivo accepts arbitration to be a backup catcher, so be it.   J.P. Arencibia plays, possibly Starter or 50/50; Jose Molina plays in AAA or is released in Spring Training for minimal cost.

I'm glad Hitting Coach Dwayne Murphy is returning.   Don Wakamatsu is an interesting choice for Bench Coach http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Wakamatsu.   I wonder where Nick Leyva goes; AA said everyone had a job in 2011.

I think Frasor will be back somehow. I wouldn't mind that, he could still be a type B next year.

Frasor accepting arbitration and becomming a Type B next off-season is a pretty likely scenario.

He's a Type A largely by virtue of his '09 campaign, in which he had a 1.02 WHIP and a 2.50 ERA; that is his best year so far, and significantly better than his career 1.30 WHIP and 3.76 ERA. He also had a 7-3 record with 11 saves that year.

Loosing that 09 season should place him squarely in the Type B group, significantly increasing the teams that would be interested in signing him. However, he's 33: so perhaps he takes the gamble and goes for the long term deal now.

Victor Wang's research suggests a supplemental round draft pick has a surplus value north of 2m (and that's with his signing bonus.)

Thanks for pointing me to Wang's research - for others that are interested, here are links:

Part 1

Part 2

I think I was over-excited about the possibility of Olivo instead of Molina, that comment I made about the value of a supplemental pick didn't make a lot of sense regardless of "research". Each supplemental pick has the potential to turn into a homegrown star, and homegrown stars is the way to build a championship team.

I stand by my point that the availability of Olivo is an example of why Molina's option should not have been picked up.

I am not necessarily against dealing Marcum.

But to suggest trading a starting pitcher of Marcum’s calibre, with two years of control, for a reliever with one year of control... doesn’t reflect very well on Blair's competence IMHO.

I was thinking that AA would be looking for what he is always looking for: young high ceiling guys with significant team control.

Very interesting and impressive move by A.A.

I think the only thing that would make it better would be the conditions of the PTBNL / cash. If this is the arrangement, I'll be blown away:

Olivo accepts arbitration = PTBNL is Jose Molina

Olivo declines arbitration = $2 million cash.

Now that would be genius!

.....The Jays will offer Frasor arbitration. Having him back at $3m for a season isn't a bad deal....

Since the Jays have already decided that Kevin Gregg is not worth $3.5-million (his 2011 option, minus the buy-out), why would they offer $3-million to Frasor?  Gregg and Frasor competed head-to-head for the closer's job in 2010, and Frasor lost the competition pretty badly. 

.....Gregg is not a better pitcher than Frasor at this stage in their careers....

And the converse is equally true: Frasor is not a clearly better pitcher than Gregg.   The point stands:  why would AA assess that Frasor is worth $3-million, after dumping another similar pitcher at roughly the same price?

As for arbitration:  I'm sure the technicalities are different, but the Jays don't get a compensation pich for Frasor unless they offer him arbitration.  And if they offer him arbitration, he'll probably be awarded around $3-million and he'll accept it.   If there's another scenario, please outline it.

Since the Jays have already decided that Kevin Gregg is not worth $3.5-million (his 2011 option, minus the buy-out), why would they offer $3-million to Frasor?

They just dealt for a player solely to decline his option and get the pick; Gregg options and Frasor arb decisions can't be evaluated without factoring that in (... VERY heavily). In all likelihood, they simply value the probability of getting a pick more than they like a guarantee of Gregg at $3.5M, and more than the risk that one of the free agents will accept arbitration.

Since the Jays have already decided that Kevin Gregg is not worth $3.5-million

ya, what Mike said.

Put differently, they didn't deem that his services weren't worth that amount. ($4.5M, I thought.) But that they wanted to get the draft pick as compensation.

Both Frasor and Gregg will be offered arbitration. It's just that Frasor appears more likely to accept, as he is a Type A.

Frasor is not being offered $3M. That's just the approx downside risk of offering arb. While the upside would be 2 draft picks. (Well worth the gamble, IMO)

....Frasor is not being offered $3M. That's just the approx downside risk of offering arb.....

It amounts to the exact same thing -- offering him $3-million -- unless they are pretty certain that he will accept a free-agent deal somewhere else.   That's where AA will need very good antennae, to know which teams are considering an offer to Frasor and whether anyone would offer him a multi-year deal.  Because, barring a multi-year free-agent offer for big bucks, Frasor would probably accept the $3-million.

Given that Frasor is a Type A and therefore less likely to get an offer from another team that would entice him to decline arbitration, what about the possibility that the Jays simply decide in his case not to offer?

I think they’d have to be pretty happy with Frasor on a one year deal at a reasonable rate, with a solid probability of draft pick compensation the following year.

I disagree with the ‘value of a draft pick’ rational. Not to undermine Wang’s research, I just question its applicability to AA’s decision making process.

The pick isn’t “worth that amount” to the Blue Jays per se. The pick has an underlying potential value that on average is worth the amounts that Wang quotes. However, I have to presume that AA isn’t fixated on that average: he’s buying lottery tickets and hoping for a big payout.

I also hate the font I get when pasting comments from word.

.....Given his season you'd think he could get 2 years guaranteed somewhere.....

Forkball, thanks for the interesting points and details, but I don't think it's necessarily true that Gregg would get a better offer on the free-agent market.  Even Bauxite analysts have been unimpressed with Gregg's season, since we know that the number of saves is not the best metric for measuring a reliever.  I'm sure MLB managers will be even less impressed.  He didn't attract much attention on the free-agent market a year ago and had to settle for a mediocre offer from the Jays with only a single year guaranteed for a couple million.  Since then, he's a year older, and not much improved.  Arbitration might be attractive for him -- it would presumably give him $3 to $4 million next year, which is pretty close to the option that the Jays declined.

The permutations are extremely complicated, but it seems to me that Gregg and Frasor are both at risk of accepting an arbitration offer from the Jays if it's offered to them.  Frasor, of course, is more likely to accept, given his A status, but Gregg too might accept.

The real question is:  how many veterans does Anthopolous want to keep in the bullpen?  Is it a wholesale rebuild of the bullpen, or just some tweaking?  I guess we'll find out soon.

"I really don't think we can afford to be left naked at that position. We need to continue to have our options and alternatives."

That's pretty much what I thought. The Jays could stay out of the Buck sweepstakes, trade Arencibia, and have Olivo as their starter next year. Lots of possibilities.

The 2011 draft class is expected to be quite strong, indeed. You are correct.

Why is it not the real question as to why you want to acquire a closer for a cost of player(s) in a trade with an eight figure salary whose performance has been declining for years?

On the Jays catching situation:  Richard Griffin is predicting, based on the Anthopolous conference call on Friday, that the Jays will definitely keep Buck or Olivo as the team's starting catcher in 2011.  If this is true, there are two obvious implications:  first, the Jays assess that JPA is not ready to be the starting catcher in 2011.  (And it wouldn't have mattered whether JPA was given 20 starts in September or 2 starts, since AA had already made this decision.)  Second:  Anthopolous might be obsessed with collecting draft picks, but that obsession is not at the exclusion of any other consideration.  If he lets Buck and Olivo both go to free agency, he could collect two draft picks, but instead he will keep one of them.  So he is sacrificing one potential draft pick in order to keep a veteran catcher as his starter in 2011.  Of course Griffin could be wrong, but I find it a plausible theory, and it appears to be bolstered by Griffin's interpretation of AA's comments on Friday.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/article/886706--blue-jays-bolster-backstop-options

If Papelbon is not their answer then he cannot stay along with his replacement.

Their answer to what? If money were no issue, Epstein would prefer to have both Papelbon and Bard rather than just Bard. The question he must answer is whether the team is better off spending the $12M (or whatever) on Papelbon or elsewhere, like on a catcher or third baseman.

Bard blew 7 of 10 Sv opportunities

I can't be bothered to investigate the specifics of Bard's blown saves, but it should be noted that save opportunities are generally meaningless for non-closers. If a middle reliever succeeds (in a game the team is winning) he gets a hold. If he fails, he gets a blown save (which is silly because he wasn't going to stay in the game long enough to earn the save in the first place).

So while Bard did function in a closer's capacity on several occasions, there's every chance some or all of his blown saves were really blown holds. This ratio of saves to save opportunities is even worse for true middle relievers, who frequently "blow" saves in the 6th or 7th inning but rarely close games (Camp was 2/4, Downs was 0/2, Padres' Gregerson was 2/7 but with 40 holds).

......he can't make either of them return.....

Of course not.  But he has a negotiating window with both of them, and can offer arbitration or a contract deal at this early stage.  And Buck, at least, wants to return, if the Jays are willing to pay the market price.  It's pretty clear that AA has the edge in signing both of them if he wants them.  This was the point of the Griffin article:  that Anthopolous can begin talking to the agents for both Buck and Olivo immediately, rather than waiting 72 hours until Sunday night, and this gives him a big advantage in signing Olivo if he wants.  Of course he's already been in a lot of contact with Buck and his agent.  So, as I see it, Anthopolous has the edge in signing either of Buck or Olivo if he is willing to pay something close to the market rate.

Yes, I know they weren't "depending" on him and, yes, I know he's a better prospect than Arencibia, but the San Francisco Giants would disagree about the fact there's "no way" you can contend with a rookie catcher.

all of whom need gentle care and their diapers changed by a pro.

I wonder if too much is made of all that. TB started the season with Navarro floundering and pressed Jaso into action. Jaso surprised all with a solid offensive season and the team won 96 games with an inexperienced catcher having to mesh, on the fly, with a young rotation.

Neither Posada nor Victor Martinez have ever been anyone's idea of strong defensive catchers. And when Varitek was the main man in Boston in 2008 and the first half of 2009, he provided veteran leadership (if his rep means anything) but didn't hit.

I wonder if this treatment of catchers as neurosurgeons/babysitters isn't overexaggerating their responsibilities.

the San Francisco Giants would disagree about the fact there's "no way" you can contend with a rookie catcher.

Agreed, but to be fair on that point, the Giants didn't really fully entrust the catching position to Posey until July when they traded Molina to the Rangers.

We is ain't.

It's hard to say with any certainty that we can be contenders when the core of our team can put out a monumentally craptastic season at the drop of a hat.  Wells, Lind, Hill, Bautista, Snider, Escobar, Arencibia - how do you have any confidence in what kind of season they will put up.  We know what kind of offense they can produce, but it seems likely that at least a couple will totally wet the bed.

Well, your point seemed to indicate that you couldn't contend with a rookie catcher, as you said that the young pitchers needed their diapers changed by a pro. I doubt Buster Posey became a pro and an expert at changing diapers during two months of major league action. That comment suggested, to me at least, that you were saying you needed a veteran catcher with a young pitching staff, which San Francisco demonstrated may not always be necessary.

....now that he's free, he (Olivo) won't sign with a team with a coming young stud.....

This doesn't make sense at all.   First, the Jays won't try to sign Olivo unless they NEED a starting catcher, so Olivo would already be assured that he'll have the starting job if he signs with the Jays, regardless of their young prospects. (The Jays have already signed Molina at a significant salary to be their back-up catcher, and he is cheaper than Olivo would cost, so they don't need Olivo as a back-up.)  Second, there's no assurance that JPA is "a coming young stud."  There are too many question marks surrounding JPA.  He's certainly not guaranteed to be the Jays starting catcher in 2011, even in July or August.  The acquisition of Olivo as another option for the Jays in 2011 is further evidence that the Jays have question marks about JPA's ability to be the starting catcher next year.  Maybe JPA will be ready by 2012 to be a starting catcher for the whole season, but that wouldn't deter Olivo from signing with the Jays for 2011 if the money is right.

If the Jays were confident that JPA is ready to be the starting catcher in 2011, why would Anthopolous say this on Friday:  "I really don't believe we can afford to be left naked at that position."  He said this as his explanation for why the Jays acquired Olivo.  He was clearly implying that the Jays would be "left naked" at catcher if Buck departs and Olivo was not acquired.  In other words, he believes that Molina and JPA are not sufficient "clothing" for the Jays at catcher in 2011.

It's true that the Jays didn't pick up Olivo's option and he is technically a free agent.  But the Jays have an edge in signing him (if they want him) because they can offer him arbitration and because they're already talking to Olivo's agent in advance of the free agency period.

By the way, it's not merely Griffin who suspects that either Buck or Olivo will be with the Jays next season.  Jordan Bastian, reporting on AA's conference call with journalists on Friday, phrased it this way:  "Adding Olivo to the mix creates a sort of contingency plan in the event that Buck leaves via free agency."  The implication is:  if Buck departs, the Jays will probably try to keep Olivo.

Griffin, after listening to Anthopolous on Friday, put it this way:  "Anthopoulos is convinced, either way, he has his man behind the plate for 2011. He just doesn’t know which one, although he has strong suspicions it will be Olivo."  I don't think this is merely Griffin's speculation -- this is the implication of AA's words in the conference call on Friday.

Anthopolous also said that the Jays might still try to sign Kevin Gregg as a free agent.  His strategy is to give himself lots of options at the negotiating table, so that he's never "left naked" if someone departs.  The strategy at catcher is fairly clear:  Olivo is the option if Buck departs.

Finally, I don't understand the suggestion that the Jays should trade for Russell Martin.   For the past two years, Martin has had worse offensive numbers than Olivo, including a significantly lower OPS.  Having gone to the trouble of acquiring Olivo and beginning to talk to Olivo's agent, AA has little reason to acquire a catcher with worse numbers.

Olivo's numbers over the past two seasons, in fact, are very similar to John Buck's offensive numbers in 2009 before he came to the Jays.  If the Jays could turn Buck into an all-star, they might be able to improve Olivo to a similar degree.  John Buck's improvement from 2009 to 2010 was only about 20 points of OPS, and it's not impossible that the Jays could achieve something similar with Olivo.

Do you really think that JPA is ready to catch 120 games at the major-league level next season? 

Many here are curious to find out. It appears that you harbour some pessimism on this front. Why specifically?

Hey, I'm curious about JPA too.  I'd love to see him become a great major-leaguer, and maybe he will.  Maybe he can even do it in 2011.  Some rookie catchers have done very well, as we saw in San Francisco. 

I don't personally have a strong viewpoint on JPA.   I'm not particularly pessimistic about him -- I'm only trying to assess the Jays' viewpoint towards him.  I'm trying to read the tea leaves, and that's why I think there's some doubt about whether the Jays will make JPA the starting catcher next season.  This is based mostly on my parsing of AA's statements and moves.  Acquiring yet another veteran catcher and saying that he doesn't want to be left "naked" at the catching position next year -- to me that's one of the hints that Anthopolous doesn't think that JPA is ready.  Another hint:  the lack of playing time that JPA received at the major-league level in 2010.  If Anthopolous seriously planned to make JPA the starting catcher next season, I'm pretty certain that he would have ordered Gaston to give him plenty of playing time in his two stints on the major-league roster.  It's not feasible that Gaston would defy an order like that from his boss.   And finally, the fact that Anthopolous has been so reluctant to make any public statement of support for JPA being the starter in 2011.  What motive would he have for hesitating so long?   If JPA is going to be the main guy next season, why wouldn't Anthopolous simply say so?  He talks to the media regularly, the catching situation is an obvious question, I'm sure he has been asked about it, yet he doesn't say it.  It just seems to me that Anthopolous has doubts about JPA's immediate readiness. 

Apparently the market is full of Olivo's and Buck's this offseason.  Why would we sign one of them when we could get a draft pick for them and go with Arencibia/Molina or sign one of the reasonable facsimile's available. 

Same goes for relievers.  They're generally replaceable and we get picks for doing so.

We have to take advantage of this FA compensation system while we can to build a top tier pipeline of prospects.  I don't anticipate the compensation as it exists today will exist in two years from now.

All of AA's moves are consistent with this approach, notwithstanding his lipservice to the FA's in question.  After all, if any of Downs, Gregg, Frasor, Buck or Olivo accept arbitration, they'll be Jays next year.

I am with Scottt,Mark,Wildrose, and TJ Caino on this one. There is a pile of lip service being done on our Type B free agents. Really it`s no different than last year when AA stated that he would love to have Brajas back, and even after signing Alex Gonzonlez he still stated that Marco Scutaro could come back if he wanted to and play some shortstop or even some left field. Left field, really?

As for is JPA ready to catch 120 games this year? I don`t know, but he is going to be 25 years old this year, he is not some wet behind the ear kid, I believe last August and September was the time to answer that question, but for reasons that no longer in play that diidn`t happen. JPA `s time is now.

I believe that AA wants to maximize that amount of draft picks as possible for several reasons:

1) easiest way to accumulate upside talent

2)strong predicted draft,and

3) current CBA expires soon, and maybe compensation picks rules will probable be changing.

Can anybody confirm whether Sam Dyson had TJ surgery? A number of internet sites have him having TJ surgery any where from 2 years ago until a couple of dates ago. thanks

AA should be a politician, he's great at spin.....

In fairness, AA has nothing to gain by publicly revealing everything he believes. And we shouldn't be expecting him to. What would be the point of saying anything negative about a given player? There's no upside.

Oh, and I concur about your theory re the AA-Gaston relationship. I'm sure AA was too smart to consider locking horns with Gaston in his final season (if, in fact, he held differing views on player deployment). This can be the year he starts throwing his weight around.

The Jays have no control whatsoever over Olivo and Buck.  They are free agents - 100%.  They can sign right now with any club they choose.  The Jays had some exclusivity on Olivo for 90 mins after they acquired him.  I'm not sure if they attempted at all to use it, but I'm guessing not.  It would be interesting to know if AA talked to Olivo or his agent at all prior to declining the option on his contract.

The Commissioner  of Baseball floats a "trial balloon" of adding two (2) more teams to the post-season in 2012.   He would not mention this item, as publicly as he did, unless it is actually happening in 2012.   This lends as an urgency to this off-season that didn't exist just weeks ago.

A.A. must not ignore his plan for the future.   He must, however, be prepared to take advantage of a window of opportunity that exists now.

You need an Ace: this wil happen in 2011, 2012 or 2013, unless A.A. gets a good deal done now.

You need a Top Closer: now, and for the next three or more years.

You need a better Bullpen: 10th out of 14 teams just doesn't do the job.   Bringing back Downs, Frasor and/or Gregg isn't making this team better - it can only stay the same.   We have too many pitchers without options - this doesn't help.

You need better On-Base Percentage: with openings at 1B and 3B being obvious choices.

The list goes on: including finding out, this year, if Travis Snider and J.P. Arencibia can be starters.   If you will not or can not do so for any reason, trade them, one or both.   Make the decision now.