Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - A Gane Thread! ALCS Game 1: NYY @ TEX

Okay, we here at Da Box -- for good reason -- have not posted a "Game Thread" since the Canada/South Africa World Cup game in March 2006. The last major league game thread was in May 2005. So let's see how this goes.

The Yankees are in the ALCS, and I take it as a given that every Bauxite here (except me) wants them to lose horribly and tragically. They're playing the (holy crap!) Rangers, my hometown team. For the record -- no, I haven't actually decided to root for one or the other, but rather will be in the awkward fan position of wanting both teams to do well. Hometown vs. long-time favorite? That's a no-lose, and I will definitely have a dog in this year's World Series hunt.

Most of the expert projections I have heard and read so far lean to the Yankees, giving them a position-by-position edge pretty much everywhere except CF (Hamilton over Granderson), RF (Cruz over Swisher) abd DH (Vlad over anyone the Yankees toss out there). Everyone gives bullpen and bench to the Yankees, and most give rotation that direction, too. I might disagree at shortstop, catcher (Posada has really fallen off a cliff, and I don't mean Lee, but speaking of Lee), maybe about the rotation too.

A final question -- and I don't know the answer or have any idea how to look it up. Tonight's starting pitching matchup, initially speaking, pits C.C. Sabathia against C. J. Wilson. Is this the first time in baseball history that a post-season game has posted two double-initial monikered guys against each other? Magpie, any thoughts?

Personal projection: the Rangers run wild on Posada, get two wins from Lee and one each from WIlson and Colby Lewis, and the Rangers advance to sure annihilation by the Phillies. (Can't quite break the long North Texas haseball habit of gloom and doom ...)

Posted by Mick Doherty on Friday, October 15 2010 @ 07:24 PM EDT.

A Gane Thread! ALCS Game 1: NYY @ TEX | 61 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Gerry - Friday, October 15 2010 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#224164) #

Even though Posada is a weak link four of the seven starts will be made by lefties Sabatthia and Pettitte which will limit the running game. The Yankees lineup was tough but with Granderson now hitting better against lefties it is even tougher.

The Rangers bullpen was shaky against Tampa, even Feliz didn't look good. The Rangers need to fire on all cylinders to beat the Yankees, a player or players need to get hot. If everyone plays to their potential the Yankees will win.

Magpie - Friday, October 15 2010 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#224165) #

four of the seven starts will be made by lefties Sabatthia and Pettitte which will limit the running game.

I'll quibble with that. Sabathia is just ordinary at holding runners. Whereas Pettitte doesn't limit the running game - he eliminates it.

Mick Doherty - Friday, October 15 2010 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#224166) #

Walk.
Single.
Homer.
410-foot flyout.
Single.

This is going well for the Rangers so far ...

Alex Obal - Friday, October 15 2010 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#224167) #

Crowd is amped. Wow.

Sabathia looks rattled, and he looked terrible enough before he got rattled, but if he escapes down only 3 it should be a ballgame. (Thanks, captain obvious)

Mick Doherty - Friday, October 15 2010 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#224168) #

Escaped is exactly what he did, Alex.

Wild pitch with the bases loaded and Posada-to-Sabathia made a great play to throw out the potential fourth run.

Magpie - Friday, October 15 2010 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#224169) #

My, my. And with Cliff Lee set for Game 3, the Yankees will be turning to Phil Hughes in what is essentially a must-win?

If you're Girardi, do you get CC out of there now and bring him back instead of Burnett in Game 4?

Chuck - Friday, October 15 2010 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#224170) #

Is it just me, or does it seem like once a game Posada has a ball go by him that hits him directly in the glove? It's odd, but I'm not sure I've ever seen a catcher's reflexes appear to abandon him quite like they have in Posada's case.

electric carrot - Friday, October 15 2010 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#224171) #

Yanks are going down!

The Cliff Lee revenge series looms ...

Of course I like Halladay and like that he's doing well but I do feel for Lee who went all the way for Philly last year and then was dumped like a high school tart (to what ended up being the worst team in the AL.)

I love the idea of him coming back to Philly for the series. What are the fans going to do? Seriously, I know Philly fans are obnoxious but can they boo this guy? I don't think so.

Go Texas! Yanks, go ahead and pitch Burnett or a tired CC either one is going to get smoked (especially Burnett!)

Magpie - Friday, October 15 2010 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#224172) #

I know Philly fans are obnoxious but can they boo [Cliff Lee]? I don't think so.

Just you watch.

electric carrot - Friday, October 15 2010 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#224173) #

against my better judgment I bet that he actually gets applauded if he shows up in philly for the series.

Hey, who are those guys with the white jackets at my front door ...

scottt - Friday, October 15 2010 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#224174) #

Series might be up to the Rangers bullpen.

Mick Doherty - Friday, October 15 2010 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#224175) #

The Darrens both fall to ... Yankee mojo?

5-4 (and counting) ....

Magpie - Friday, October 15 2010 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#224176) #

Holy crap. It's 5-0 Texas, I go to Shoppers's, I come back....

Alex Obal - Friday, October 15 2010 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#224177) #

And with Cliff Lee set for Game 3, the Yankees will be turning to Phil Hughes in what is essentially a must-win?

Well, it's a must-win game for someone no matter who wins tonight, so strictly speaking this doesn't count as a jinx.

If the Rangers still had Francoeur on the bench, I'd call a homer off Rivera.

Mick Doherty - Friday, October 15 2010 @ 11:48 PM EDT (#224178) #

Now NYY fans everywhere will find out if they can reiterate that Douglas Adams was right ... 42 is the answer to the great question of life, the universe and everything?

Mariano Rivera wears #42 (and will be the last MLB player to ever do so) ... now back to the game for the bottom of the ninth ...

Alex Obal - Friday, October 15 2010 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#224179) #

Andrus was running inside the baseline on his (impressive and gutsy) sac bunt. Why do they all do that? Asking for trouble.

Alex Obal - Friday, October 15 2010 @ 11:59 PM EDT (#224180) #

Never bet against the boogeyman factor.

Gerry - Saturday, October 16 2010 @ 12:01 AM EDT (#224181) #

Mick, you need to stay away from tall buildings and sharp objects.

I think I called that game pretty well, bad Texas bullpen, relentless Yankees and good hitting by Granderson. All in all a depressing start to the ALCS.

Mick Doherty - Saturday, October 16 2010 @ 12:03 AM EDT (#224182) #

The Rangers team psychiatrist better be on call.

10 straight post-season losses (alll to the Yankees)
Have never won a home playoff game in franchise history.
In six Ranger playoff games this year, the home team is 0-6.

Think that might be in Ranger heads right now? Colby Lewis, destiny is on Line 1 ... if you lose tomorrow afternoon, it don't matter what Ckfford does in Game 3 ...

TamRa - Saturday, October 16 2010 @ 12:32 AM EDT (#224184) #

games like this make me hate the Yankees all the more...

Chuck - Saturday, October 16 2010 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#224185) #

In terms of numbers, O'Day and Oliver appear to have been ever bit as effective as Feliz in 2010. But if Feliz really is your most trusted reliever -- and I believe that he rightfully is -- why would he not be the one you'd summon to get you out of the mess in the 8th? Why not entrust the sticky situation to your main man and let the other two finish up in the 9th, in a presumably lower leverage situation?

Yes, I know the answer. Slave to the save and all that.

Ishai - Saturday, October 16 2010 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#224186) #

Pettite eliminates the running game.*

*Clause ceases to be valid if there is a gutsy runner on third base.

Thomas - Saturday, October 16 2010 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#224187) #

He's not entirely to blame for the loss, but that was some awful management by Ron Washington in the 8th inning.

A very depressing game and one that, I think, will come back to haunt Texas shortly.

Chuck - Saturday, October 16 2010 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#224188) #

Thomas, I agree.

Washington seems to like the La Russa style of bullpen management, employing a closer and a dozen ROOGYs and LOOGYs (the Rangers even added two LH relievers for this series!). Thing is, how successful can this be against a team loaded with switch-hitters, a LHB, Cano, who seems impervious to LHP, and a DH platoon of Berkman and Thames? Sure, he can exploit the platoon advantage against Jeter and Granderson, but where else?

And his decision to use Borbon as a pinch-hitter rather than saving him to be a pinch-runner kind of baffled me.

The Rangers do not have the wiggle room to make a bunch of mistakes. It's difficult to not be fatalistic about their chances after last night's showing.

Chuck - Saturday, October 16 2010 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#224189) #

Christina Kahrl said all this better than I ever could.

scottt - Saturday, October 16 2010 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#224190) #

It looks a lot like yesterday. I don't know if they'll get 7 innings out of Lewis. Statistically, the pen should be able to hold a 5 run lead over a couple of innings at least half the time.

Kasi - Sunday, October 17 2010 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#224192) #

On the other playoff series, I think at some point on Saturday I was like "I don't think I want to root for Halladay anymore". Sure he was on the Jays forever, and I like the guy. But I don't really like the Phillies that much so something just switched and I started rooting for the Giants and Lincecum.

scottt - Monday, October 18 2010 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#224230) #

I could see the Yankees offering Lee a lot of money.

Alex Obal - Monday, October 18 2010 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#224231) #

How about the Blue Jays offering Lee a lot of money?

Mick Doherty - Monday, October 18 2010 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#224232) #

scottt - Tuesday, October 19 2010 @ 07:53 AM EDT (#224234) #

There's nobody but Lee on the market this winter and Pettitte may be retiring. CC makes 24 millions. Lee is a Boras client, no?

Chuck - Tuesday, October 19 2010 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#224245) #

I think he stays here -- provided of course the money is more or less equivalent

I wonder how many fans at Yankee Stadium were watching Lee last night thinking how cool it will be (not could be) when Lee is doing the exact same thing next year, but in pinstripes.

Here's hoping that the Rangers lock him up long term after this season, regardless of how their post-season plays out. Hell, they can take their rumoured 93 jillion dollars in TV revenue and sign Carl Crawford as well. Crawford... George W... Texas Rangers... the dots are all there to be connected. Just need a chequebook now, or checkbook for Mick's sake.

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, October 19 2010 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#224246) #

Actually, Lee's agent is named Darek Braunecker. I can't imagine the Rangers going the Boras route again -- once bittem and all that.

Chuck, I appreciated the courtesy, but you needn't worry aboot me. ;-)

Chuck - Tuesday, October 19 2010 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#224247) #

I know enough to not get overly sassy with a man with a gun rack in his pickup.

TamRa - Tuesday, October 19 2010 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#224258) #

Lee is from near here (Benton, Ark.) and apparently loves it here. If he becomes Ranger Folk Hero for all time and leads the team to the World Series, I think he stays here -- provided of course the money is more or less equivalent, and the Greenberg/Ryan ownership, while not the Yankees or Mets, ought to be able to pony up for the team's first dominant ace since ... well, Ryan himself.

Don't forget that at those pay grades, the difference in state taxes is a huge factor. I'm sure that some accounting whiz can give us a figure but my guess is that the NY offer would have to be several million per anum higher in order to overcome the state and local tax in NYC.

Personally - if I could have only one wish concerning this year's FA market it would be that Lee signs ANY where but with the Yankees.

Magpie - Tuesday, October 19 2010 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#224267) #

you needn't worry aboot me

Canadians do not say "aboot." This is a myth. We say "about."

Americans say "abowwt."

scottt - Tuesday, October 19 2010 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#224268) #

So, 5 or 6 years at 25 millions? Can the Rangers afford that?

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, October 20 2010 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#224277) #

Sure, now they can, though I'm not sure that's enough!

The concern ont he radio here in NorTex is, if you sign Lee to a forty zillion dollar contract, then Hamilton, Feliz and Andrus are in line next and pretty quickly the payroll is Yankee-level. And Lee doe NOT stay here without a back-room guarantee that the shortstop, the closer and the BSB/MVP will also be retained ...

Ryan Day - Wednesday, October 20 2010 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#224278) #

I suspect it may be less about dollars than years. The Rangers can probably compete with the Yankees on a 3-4 year deal, but the Yankees could just go nuts and offer Lee 5-6 years; they can afford it if Lee falls off near the end of the contract, but I doubt many other teams can.

bpoz - Wednesday, October 20 2010 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#224279) #

Lee is Very Good, 32 years old. JP Richardi said, you can't expect a player to be good every year and we all know that to be true. Injuries & bad years happen to just about every player.
So if 20% of your payroll is spent on 1 player then you have large limitations.

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, October 20 2010 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#224284) #

if Lee falls offf ...

... a cliff? 8-)

John Northey - Wednesday, October 20 2010 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#224288) #

Also there is the old rule of 32 - do not sign guys over 32 for more than 1 or 2 years (3 max) as the end is in site for the vast majority.

For proof via Lahman database...
Age 32 200+ IP all time (pre-2007): 263 pitchers
Age 33: 138 reached 200 - 52.47%
Age 34: 102 reach 200 - 38.78%
Age 35: 69 reached 200 - 26.24%

Ugh.

Lets adjust it so all they need to do is 150 innings after their 200 IP season.

Age 32 200+ IP all time (pre-2007): 263 pitchers
Age 33: 194 reached 150 - 73.76%
Age 34: 144 reach 150 - 54.75%
Age 35: 111 reached 150 - 42.21%

Better, but still a high risk to drop off eh?

If we shift to age 29 what do we see?
Age 29: 451 reached 200
Age 30: 365 reached 150 - 80.93%
Age 31: 291 reached 150 - 64.5%
Age 32: 233 reached 150 - 51.66%

Wow, still pretty steep, and that was just to 150. For 200 it was 278/203/164 = 61.6%/45.0%/36.4%

I think this screams "Do not give 3 year deals to pitchers". Later when I find time I'll have to try limiting the ERA for these guys or checking previous years to see if it helps at all.

John Northey - Wednesday, October 20 2010 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#224290) #

Just thought "lets check Ricky's group"...

Age 25: 505 pitchers
Age 26: 303 @ 200, 388 @ 150 = 60%/76.8%
Age 27: 240 @ 200, 322 @ 150 = 47.5%/63.8%
Age 28: 213 @ 200, 289 @ 150 = 42.2%/57.2%

Better but still not great. Less than 50/50 he gets 200 innings in two years from now.

If I limit it to guys who were 25 from 1980 to 2007 I get for percentages 71%/59%/57% (150 IP), 50%/37%/41% for 200 IP (weird pattern eh?). Suggests that modern stuff (pens/5 man rotation) has shifted things so it is harder to get back to 200. For 2000-2007 I get just 30 guys - 60%/47%/33% for 150, 43%/33%/30% for 200. Ouch!

bpoz - Wednesday, October 20 2010 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#224302) #

John N,
This is great stuff, I never thought to look at it from that angle.
But off the top of my head, some influences to these numbers would be, but I don't have the skills to dig up the proofs:-
1) Steroid era.
2) Injuries & degree of recovery.
3) Power VS Finesse pitcher.
4) Pitch count to innings. Pedro Martinez IMO lost ALL his stuff at the start of the 7th inning and he seemed to go on the DL every year in maybe August (tired?)
25 year old Zep has trouble getting past the 7th inning, but he IS a Lefty so he can be a late bloomer.

I am sure there are many more factors.

Early on I heard AA say he wants 2 or 3 #2s and the rest of his 5 man SP to be #3s. He did not describe a #2 or #3 and never mentioned #1,4,5. The interviewer did not ask for a description of a #2 or #3 and AA never said what they are. For 1 and a half years I have been trying unsuccessfully to find a description of a #1.

So age wise and $ wise I feel OK with trading top SPs for prospects because of the payroll effect and now the age effect.

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, October 20 2010 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#224304) #

find a description of a #1.

Here you go.

John Northey - Thursday, October 21 2010 @ 12:26 AM EDT (#224313) #

Being a stats guy I love digging into stuff whenever I get an excuse (call me AA if you want tons of data, although I'm not cheap if you want good stuff rather than off-the-cuff). The Lahman database has been too much fun and I always love the new release each year.

#2/3 guys would be the types who can contend for a Cy Young in a peak year but normally would be 15 game winners with ERA's in the 110-120 range, peaking with a year or two in the 140/150 area. Need 20+ year careers to get into the HOF, and even then might need to fight to get in. Guys like David Wells fit this description (solid #3, decent #2). The best of this will be more Jimmy Key (a low end #1, high end #2).

True #1's are few and far between - 140+ ERA+'s are the norm, a 120 is an off year (2 years sub 140 for Halladay since 2001 for example), while being workhorses as well (180+ IP always). These guys are hard to get and more dumb luck than skill gets you them as they tend to be freaks of nature and super-dedicated. Long careers = HOF automatic for these guys.

#4/5 guys are 100 ERA+ guys who can throw 180+ for you. They'll drop to 90 some years, 110 others, might surprise with a 140 but that is the oddity and almost always ends up getting them a stupid contract. Jim Clancy fits this role.

I'm going a bit hard here, shooting for 'ideal' not realistic. Few teams get a 140 ERA+ guy, let along 2 more with 110's and 2 more with 100's. I think AA has the right ideal to stock up on #2/3 guys as if you have a staff of 110-120's you will do very well as a few will have 130+ years and these guys can morph into aces if things go right (ideal pitching coach, ideal environment, good health - see Halladay). Aces tend to be like shooting stars - a few great years then boom goes the arm - Stieb had that happen at 33, Key at 34, Juan Guzman at 26 then again at 30 and 33 (up/down/up/down career). It happens with others, but aces seem to be prone to scary swings ala Guzman it seems.

Jonny German - Thursday, October 21 2010 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#224317) #

I'm going a bit hard here, shooting for 'ideal' not realistic.

Back in 2005 I looked into what "realistic" is for a league-average team and yeah, it's way short of what most fans hope for. Based on the data of the 2002 thru 2004 seasons:

Pitcher	GS	IP	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	ERA	VORP
#1 Starter	32	213	8.1	2.6	7.2	0.9	3.27	55.0
#2 Starter	29	185	8.8	2.9	6.4	1.0	3.91	32.1
#3 Starter	27	163	9.2	3.1	5.9	1.1	4.31	20.3
#4 Starter	23	138	9.7	3.4	5.7	1.2	4.87	8.2
#5 Starter	22	123	10.4	3.8	5.6	1.4	5.76	-5.2

Full article here.

bpoz - Thursday, October 21 2010 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#224324) #

Thank you Mick D for your response to my question of who is a #1. The link provided was Roy Halladay.
Also thank you to John N & Jonny G for your details about #1-#5. Jonny G I also read all the comments on the article you wrote, very good food for thought.

I respectfully say that while this clarifies much, there are still differing opinions and some are vast differences IMO. I am OK with reasonable differences but vast differences in evaluation can produce misunderstandings in any discussion.
Specifically JP Richardi said Ted Lilly was a #4, your article suggests #2-3. His statement was in the off season so he may have been doing some sort of set-up work towards negotiations.

I am quite clear on what a #1 is now. After some study and answers from Bauxites I should have more of an idea on #2&3.

Some analysis and conclusions on Roy Halladay as a #1. From 2002-10 every year but 04&05 when he had injuries, he pitched over 200 innings. One of the 04/05 years his ERA was over 4.00 every other year the ERA was under 4.00 or 3.00.
He was also good at complete games & shut outs.

Since AA wants only #2&3s, which is what he said, I am now armed with some knowledge about which of our 2010 TOP 4 SPs will stay and which will be traded.

Lastly while AA did not say it IMO he would also hope for #1s. Halladay has a pitchers body lean and tall 6'6" so I suspect that he will draft & trade for unproven but with potential, pitchers that are lean and tall. AA also described that as the pitchers body that is most likely to be durable and last a full season without tiring.

ayjackson - Thursday, October 21 2010 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#224327) #

Bryan Smith of Fangraphs looked at the question of #1-4 starters a few weeks ago and he grouped them by xFIP. By this measure, Morrow and Romero were #1's, Marcum was a #2 and Cecil was a #3.

ayjackson - Thursday, October 21 2010 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#224328) #

Here's the link for the Fangraphs article.

#1 Starter: 2.92 � 3.80 xFIP.
#2 Starter: 3.81 � 4.18 xFIP.
#3 Starter: 4.19 � 4.51 xFIP.
#4 Starter: 4.56 � 5.62 xFIP.

Chuck - Thursday, October 21 2010 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#224329) #

Understanding that the #1 to #4 designations serve little practical purpose, innings pitched should be factored into the mix. Morrow's xFIP may have been 1ish but his 146 innings were not.

Mike Green - Thursday, October 21 2010 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#224333) #

Parlour game for today: total runs scored by both teams in tonight's Halladay-Lincecum matchup. I'll say 6 (5 or 7 are, of course, better bets statistically because you cannot have a 3-3 game).

Jonny German - Thursday, October 21 2010 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#224334) #

I say we get our money's worth: just 3 runs in a great duel.

Alex Obal - Thursday, October 21 2010 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#224335) #

One dollar.

(Somebody had to do it.)

ayjackson - Thursday, October 21 2010 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#224336) #

7-2 Phillies.

bpoz - Thursday, October 21 2010 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#224340) #

Total runs 8. 6-2 Phillies. BUT 2-2 when Both Halladay and Lincecum exit the game.

Mick Doherty - Thursday, October 21 2010 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#224344) #

1-0 Jints.

Mike Green - Friday, October 22 2010 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#224351) #

Mmm...cuttlefish.

Magpie - Friday, October 22 2010 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#224354) #

Understanding that the #1 to #4 designations serve little practical purpose

Indeed. The designations, to my mind, are utterly meaningless as the innings pitched actually tell you...

Mike Green - Friday, October 22 2010 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#224357) #

They're about as meaningful as closer, set-up man...Duke Ellington was once asked about classical music or rock and roll or rhythm and blues and said, "there are two kinds of music- good music and bad music". Sir Duke had a point and it could be made equally well about pitchers. It obviously helps if you have a great pitcher or two like the 1980 Phillies, but you can equally well win with four or five good ones like the 1960 Pirates.

bpoz - Friday, October 22 2010 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#224361) #

If anyone cares to do it, how would you rank the NYY pitchers?

Obviously they would only have a #4 who was a promising but unproven prospect that they wanted to keep like Chamberlain & Hughes recently and Petite in the past.

I figure 4 proven #1 only CC, #2 Pettite & Vazquez(carreer numbers) & #3 AJ. Hughes #2 now or possible #1 depending on future results.

A Gane Thread! ALCS Game 1: NYY @ TEX | 61 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.