There's been some talk about the defensive shortcomings of John Buck and
Jose Molina, talk which generally focuses on one thing - baseballs
rolling to the backstop. It's my understanding (I don't hear the radio
team much) that Alan Ashby, a former catcher who was very good at this
part of the game, has been talking about it all season.
Bauxite Flex is among the many who have been persuaded by Ashby, and said the other day that:
I trust Ashby's judgment. A catcher better at blocking the ball would have saved Romero ten wild pitches and maybe a couple of losses.
Both of these things would be remarkable, if true. How true are they?
Romero has been charged with 18 wild pitches. That's a lot - it led the AL and was just one shy of Edwin Jackson's major league leading total. It's the third highest figure in team history: Dave Lemanczyk had 20 in 1977 (in 252 IP) and Juan Guzman set the record with 26 in 1993 (in 221 IP). 11 of Romero's WPs came with John Buck catching, 7 came with Jose Molina behind the plate. Molina also had a passed ball with Romero on the mound. What resulted from all of this?
This:
There were 24 baserunners aboard during the 19 mishaps, and 23 of them took an extra base (everyone but Grudzielanek at 3b on a WP on May 4). Of those 23 runners, 10 were stranded and 13 came in to score. You can't lay all that at the foot of the wild pitches, but certainly it's the only reason some of the runs came across - Murphy on April 8, Span on October 1 in particular. With two out, Rosales might have scored from first anyway on Fox's double - but he might not have done. Lowrie's RBI groundout on September 18 was a slow roller, so the WP did not blow an inning-ending GDP. Even if Ortiz was still running from first to second, the sure out was still at first base...
You obviously can't assume that the at bats would play out in the same fashion with the runner at his original base. Romero several times issued a walk to the very next hitter, which would have sometimes had the very same adbvancement effect (and also suggesting that maybe some of these WPs might have had something to with a pitcher fighting his control.) But we can't know this. The Missing Alternative Timeline strikes again.
At any rate, they certainly didn't cost Romero any losses. Romero went 7-3 in these 13 games and the team went 9-4. In only one of the four losses did one of these advancing baseruunners cross the plate. That was in the September 11 game against Tampa. That WP came with the Jays already trailing 2-0; Romero would give up a grand slam later in the inning and the Rays would win 13-1. There were bigger problems that day.
Anyway, if Ashby said 10 wild pitches and a couple of losses, he's clearly indulging in a bit of hyperbole.
Bauxite Flex is among the many who have been persuaded by Ashby, and said the other day that:
I trust Ashby's judgment. A catcher better at blocking the ball would have saved Romero ten wild pitches and maybe a couple of losses.
Both of these things would be remarkable, if true. How true are they?
Romero has been charged with 18 wild pitches. That's a lot - it led the AL and was just one shy of Edwin Jackson's major league leading total. It's the third highest figure in team history: Dave Lemanczyk had 20 in 1977 (in 252 IP) and Juan Guzman set the record with 26 in 1993 (in 221 IP). 11 of Romero's WPs came with John Buck catching, 7 came with Jose Molina behind the plate. Molina also had a passed ball with Romero on the mound. What resulted from all of this?
This:
Base SituationA few notes: I believe the TV guys have suggested that most of this was happening early in the season. They're right - three quarters of these events happened in the first six weeks of the season. John Buck, in particular, seems to have completely solved his problems with Romero's curve ball. Jose Molina, alas, remains as mobile as your average fire hydrant.
Date Catcher Inning Score Outs Runner(s) Before After Event Outcome
1 8-Apr Molina 5 0-0 1 Guerrero 1 2 WP Stranded on second
2 8-Apr Molina 7 0-0 2 Murphy 3 0 WP Murphy scored
Game result: Romero left trailing 1-0 after 7 IP, Jays rally to win.
3 13-Apr Buck 4 2-0 2 Quentin 1 2 WP Stranded on second
Game result: Romero left with 4-2 lead after 8 IP, got the W
4 18-Apr Buck 3 0-0 2 Willits 1 2 WP Stranded on second
5 18-Apr Buck 4 0-0 0 Kendrick 1 2 WP Stranded on third
Game result: Romero left trailing 1-0 after 7 IP, took the L
6 24-Apr Buck 4 0-0 2 Upton 1 2 WP Stranded on second
Game result: Romero left with 3-2 lead after 7 IP, bullpen lost game.
7 29-Apr Buck 3 0-1 2 Rosales, Kouzmanoff 12 23 WP Rosales, Kouzmanoff scored on Fox 2b.
Game result: Romero left with 6-3 lead after 6, got the W
8 4-May Buck 3 1-0 2 Sizemore, Grudzielanek 13 23 WP Sizemore, Grudzielanek scored on Choo single
9 4-May Buck 3 1-2 2 Choo 1 2 WP Kearns BB, Peralta 2 run double, Choo scored
10 4-May Buck 4 4-4 1 Valbuena 2 3 WP Scored on Sizemore single
Game result: Romero left with 8-5 lead after 6 IP, got the W
11 9-May Molina 2 1-0 1 Quentin, Rios 12 23 PB Castro BB, Nix RBI single, Pierre RBI single
12 9-May Molina 3 5-3 0 Rios, Konerko 12 23 WP Quentin BB, Ramirez GDP, Konerko scored
13 9-May Molina 4 5-4 1 Nix 1 2 WP Stranded on second
Game result: Romero left with 5-4 lead after 5.1 IP, bullpen lost lead, Jays rallied to win.
14 15-May Molina 5 1-0 1 Murphy 1 2 WP Stranded on second
Game result: Romero pitches CG shutout, wins 4-0
15 11-Jun Buck 4 3-3 2 Olivo 2 3 WP Stranded on third
Game result: Romero left trailing 4-3 after 5 IP, took the L
16 16-Jun Buck 4 1-1 1 Denorfia 1 2 WP Stranded on second
Game result: Romero left with 6-1 lead after 6 IP, got the W
17 11-Sep Molina 4 0-2 1 Zobrist 2 3 WP Pena BB, Rodriguez BB, Hawpe GS homer
Game result: Romero left trailing 6-1 after 4 IP, took the L
18 18-Sep Molina 6 4-1 1 Ortiz, Beltre 12 23 WP Lowrie RBI groundout, Drew RBI single, Hall single
Game result: Romero left with 4-3 lead after 6 IP, got the W
19 1-Oct Buck 6 1-1 1 Span 1 2 WP Hardy K, Mauer RBI single, Young GDP
Game result: Romero left with 6-2 lead after 8, got the W
There were 24 baserunners aboard during the 19 mishaps, and 23 of them took an extra base (everyone but Grudzielanek at 3b on a WP on May 4). Of those 23 runners, 10 were stranded and 13 came in to score. You can't lay all that at the foot of the wild pitches, but certainly it's the only reason some of the runs came across - Murphy on April 8, Span on October 1 in particular. With two out, Rosales might have scored from first anyway on Fox's double - but he might not have done. Lowrie's RBI groundout on September 18 was a slow roller, so the WP did not blow an inning-ending GDP. Even if Ortiz was still running from first to second, the sure out was still at first base...
You obviously can't assume that the at bats would play out in the same fashion with the runner at his original base. Romero several times issued a walk to the very next hitter, which would have sometimes had the very same adbvancement effect (and also suggesting that maybe some of these WPs might have had something to with a pitcher fighting his control.) But we can't know this. The Missing Alternative Timeline strikes again.
At any rate, they certainly didn't cost Romero any losses. Romero went 7-3 in these 13 games and the team went 9-4. In only one of the four losses did one of these advancing baseruunners cross the plate. That was in the September 11 game against Tampa. That WP came with the Jays already trailing 2-0; Romero would give up a grand slam later in the inning and the Rays would win 13-1. There were bigger problems that day.
Anyway, if Ashby said 10 wild pitches and a couple of losses, he's clearly indulging in a bit of hyperbole.
