Kevin Ahrens, 3B
Born April 26, 1989. Selected in the 1st round of the 2007 draft. 

 In 2011 Kevin Ahrens will be one of the most watched prospects in the Blue Jays system as management and fans try and figure out what to expect from the first round pick.  Ahrens was promoted aggressively under the JP Ricciardi regime and while he was always underage for his level he was never able to get his OPS over 700.  So in mid-2010 the Blue Jays decided to eliminate switch hitting for Ahrens and they sent him back to Lansing to hit exclusively from the right side.  After a short acclimation period Ahrens bat took off and he hit very well in Lansing earning a brief return to Dunedin to finish the season. 

Is Ahrens a better hitter now that he is hitting only from the right side?  Was his success in Lansing a hot streak or a sign of new potential?  Or did Sal Fasano get in his head and motivate him to up his game?

Ahrens will be 21 on opening day 2011 and a spot on the Dunedin roster will see him at an age appropriate level. 2011 will be interesting.

Adonis Cardona, RHP
Born January 14, 1994. Signed as an international free agent.

Cardona was born three months after Joe Carter touched 'em all.  Think about that for a second.  In any event, Cardona's $2.8MM bonus is the largest ever given to a Venezuelan and the second largest international free agent bonus given by the Jays.  While Cardona has yet to pitch professionally for the organization, the 16 year old stands 6'4" and reportedly already touches 94 MPH on the gun while also featuring a curve and a change-up. 

As you may have noticed, we didn't really know what to do with Cardona in our Top 30.  Obviously based on his bonus the Jays figure he's easily a top prospect and this time next year he could very well be featured prominently in our breakdown.  But for now, he's a prospect to watch albeit a very intriguing one.  He's likely to start in the DSL and it'll obviously be years before he comes up north.

David Cooper, 1B
Born February 12, 1987. Selected in the 1st round of the 2008 draft.

After an incredibly underwhelming 2009, Cooper started his 2010 season in much the same fashion.  The plate discipline, extra base power, and average went out the window and with it went his prospect status.  However, something appeared to click towards the end of June and Cooper went on to post OPSs of .927 and .849 in July and August.  His power returned as did his plate discipline.

We were a little torn on Cooper during our Top 30 discussions.  3 of the eight panelists had him in their personal top thirties, with one as high as 18.  There's still something to like with Cooper.  He'll never have all that much of a ceiling but he's been very good for a year and a half of his three year professional career and it's still in the realm of possibility that he'll have a career reminiscent of Lyle Overbay.  Cooper could start the 2011 season in Las Vegas and, if he does, he'll likely put up some pretty decent numbers.

Michael Crouse, OF
Born November 22, 1990. Selected in the 16th round of the 2008 draft.

 Michael Crouse had a breakout season this year and earned a promotion to Lansing for the last month.  Crouse is still just nineteen years old despite this being his third pro season.

Crouse is impressive physically, he is listed at 6'4" and 215 pounds and he is built like a football tight end.  Sal Fasano sees a lot of potential in Crouse but describes him as raw, although Crouse did make significant strides this year.  The knock on Crouse was his bat speed which was considered too slow.  The Jays and Crouse have worked on that over the last two years and they think they have improved it.  Crouse has good power which should only continue to get better as he matures.  He also has good speed, particularly once he is under way.  All he has to do now is continue hitting as he has been and he should continue to move up. 

Misaul Diaz, RHP
Born December 20, 1989. Signed as an international free agent.

 After a couple of years in the DSL the Jays brought Misaul (miz-ah-ool) Diaz to North America in 2010 and he didn't disappoint.  Diaz started 2010 in the GCL as a 20 year-old and he did pitch well as you would expect a 20 year-old in the GCL to do.  Diaz made eight starts and delivered a WHIP under one.  His ERA was 2.52 and he struckout almost a hitter per inning. 

Diaz was promoted to Auburn for the last month of the season.  The Auburn pitching coach, Vince Horsman, told me he had lobbied to get Diaz on the Auburn team at the start of the season but he was over-ruled.  Diaz repeated his GCL performance in five starts in the NYPL.  He gave up 20 hits and only 4 walks in 22.2 innings.  He struck out 23 in those 22.2 innings.  So you get the picture, Diaz pounds the zone with a low 90's fastball that sinks, a curve and a change.  Diaz has a funky delivery that can throw off some hitters.  Diaz is listed at 6'2" and 180 lbs.

Diaz will start 2011 as a 21 year old and based on his age and his NYPL performance he should get a promotion to Lansing to see what he can do there.

Oliver Dominguez, 2B
Born April 23, 1989. Signed as an international free agent.

Oliver Dominguez sure has been in the system for a long time considering he's only 21. Evidently the Jays decided he wasn't ready for the Dominican League after his poor performance as a 17-year-old in 2006, but when he returned in 2008 he was fantastic, and won a Webster Award in the process.

Since coming stateside in 2009, Dominguez has shown himself to be a guy with tons of patience (53 BBs in 376 PAs this year? Yes, please) and once he reaches first base, which he often does as a result of that patience, is an effective base-stealer - this year he swiped 25 bags and was only caught 6 times. Those are exactly the skills you want from a top-of-the-order hitter, and if things break right for Dominguez, that's his profile.

Oliver is a tiny guy, listed at 5'9" and 156 lb., so it's unreasonable to expect a ton of pop, but smaller players have succeeded in the major leagues. If he can play a good second base and maintain his plate discipline and speed, he could be a solid player. After a strong showing in 2010, here's hoping Oliver gets a full season of at bats next year.

Frank Gailey, LHP
Born November 18, 1985. Selected in the 23rd round of the 2007 draft.

Why would the Box profile a 24-year-old reliever in Dunedin who a 23rd round pick and has already repeated a level? Well, although he’s a middle reliever who is old for his league, Gailey has done nothing but put up strong numbers, year after year. In 2009, he posted posting a K/BB rate under 4.50 for the first time in his professional career. However, that demonstrates how effective Gailey has been the rest of his career and, despite that dip, he still put up a 1.93 ERA over 65.1 innings.

After struggling uncharacteristically with his control, Gailey demonstrated a big improvement in 2010, walking only 10 batters in 91.2 innings. Furthermore, he struck out 99 batters, which equates to a 9.90 K/BB rate. The second highest rate in Dunedin was Joel Carreno’s 5.72 and Gailey’s 9.90 mark was the second best in the Florida State League. It was also the best mark in the Jays organization of any pitcher with at least 30 innings, well ahead of Trystan Magnuson’s 6.30.

A southpaw, Gailey has a career 2.15 ERA in 230.1 minor league innings, with 232 strikeouts. Gailey has only surrendered 8 home runs in his professional career and, also impressively, has only allowed 5 unearned runs. In his career, Gailey has thrown 69.2 innings against left-handed batters and has not surrendered a home run. He has struck out 71, walked 14 and held lefties to a .193 average, while inducing ground balls on 56.3% of balls in play.

As a low round draft pick and minor league reliever, Gailey has a small margin for error. He walks a thin line between success and the potential end of his baseball career, but so far, he has earned a chance at the next level every step of the way. He should get a chance at New Hampshire next year and, if he comes close to duplicating his 2010 season, he’ll soon be in the running for a bullpen job in 2012, potentially as a left-handed specialist.

Sean Ochinko, C/3B
Born October 21, 1987. Selected in the 11th round of the 2009 draft.

Although these prospects aren’t necessarily the next 9 players on the list, I will let readers know that Sean Ochinko finished 31st in the balloting. It hardly seems fair that he dropped out of the Top 30, as all Ochinko did was hit over .300 for the second straight year and win his second R. Howard Webster Award in his second year of professional baseball.

Drafted out of LSU in the 11th round, Ochinko had a strong year for Auburn in 2009. He hit .324/.382/.527 and led the Doubledays in all three stats. He was the team’s player of the month in August and finished second in the NY-Penn League in batting average and in OPS, with a .924 mark. This year, Ochinko hit .311/.360/.459 for Lansing. Among players with at least 250 plate appearances, he led the Lugnuts in batting average and finished second in OPS.

For the second straight year, Ochinko crushed left-handed pitching. After posting an OPS over 1.000 against southpaws last year, he hit .382/.410/.553 against lefties this year. He also finished strongly, putting up an OPS over .850 in each of the last three months of the season, after not breaking .760 during the first two months. This improvement coincides with Ochinko making more solid contact with the ball. He dropped his groundball rate from around 57-58% over the first two months to 41-47% during the latter three and improved his line drive rate into the double digits during each of those last three months. It seems that Ochinko was hitting the ball harder and with more elevation from June onwards, after he struggled during his first two months in Lansing.

Ochinko was primarily a catcher in high school, but he played mostly first base at LSU as the team won the 2009 College World Series. At Auburn, Ochinko split time almost evenly between catcher, first base and third base and the question coming into 2010 was how much time the team would give him at catcher. He played 45 of 109 games at catcher for the Lugnuts, as the team split playing time behind the plate between him, AJ Jimenez and Karim Turkmani. Ochinko also played 23 games at DH, 16 at first base and Lansing gave Ochinko 22 games at third base.

It’s hard to get a read on minor league fielding statistics, but nothing from Ochinko stands out (positively or negatively) compared to his teammates who also saw time at first and third. However, it does appear as if his arm is a potential issue, as he only threw out 25% of base stealers, compared to 35% for Turkmani and 53% for Jimenez. Runners attempted 64 steals off Ochinko in 45 games, compared to 66 in 59 off Jimenez and 40 steals in 38 games against Turkmani, demonstrating that teams appeared to target Ochinko as a catcher they could run against. Ochinko may never be a gold glover, but if he provide passable defence at both corners and, perhaps most importantly, at catcher, he’ll give himself every opportunity to keep progressing through the system. A player who can hit lefties well and is serviceable at three positions is useful, as a starter or off the bench.

Kellen Sweeney, SS
Born September 14, 1991. Selected in the 2nd round of the 2010 draft.

 Drafted 69th overall, Sweeney signed for an above-slot $600k.  The younger brother of Oakland OFer Ryan Sweeney, Kellen was highly thought of and showed why in a limited stint in the GCL.  Sweeney profiles as a high average hitter who will likely never hit for much power.  His defense has drawn positive reviews though his arm strength is down due to Tommy John surgery.  He is said to be an average to above-average baserunner.  Some scouts question whether second base might not be his ultimate position which would obviously deal a bit of a blow to his prospect status.  While he doesn't appear to be the type of guy who will skyrocket up these charts anytime soon, he is certainly intriguing and, at just 19, obviously has a few years of the minors ahead of him.

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Check back next week for more minor league coverage.  On Tuesday we talk with Doug Davis, the Jays minor league field coordinator, and on Wednesday we talk with Dane Johnson, the Jays roving pitching instructor.