Did anybody see Bucholz pitch? The condensed game only showed one pitch. How did he look? What was he throwing?

Any help would be great.

Fastball 89-90.  Looked like he had a curve or slider but the centre-field camera in the new stadium is so high that all breaking pitches look slurvy.  I thought he was a harder thrower so the 89-90 was a bit disappointing.

I rather like Buchholz, who had a very fine season out of the Colorado pen in 2008. Like Shaun Marcum, he's coming back from TJ surgery, after missing all of 2009 - but he's about nine months behind Marcum, who had his surgery in September 2008. The Rockies kept hoping that Buchholz would be fine with rest and treatment, but he finally had TJ surgery in June 2009. He started pitching again in June of this year.

He's a fastball-curveball guy, and the curve is supposed to be his best pitch. His curve ought to be more effective at sea level.

Why on earth would you throw a fan out for tossing a home run ball back onto the field? That is a long standing thing in baseball, if you don't like the opposing player you toss the ball back. Pretty bush league I'd say, except that'd be insulting the bush leagues.

I agree on the letting everyone get a start idea this weekend. If I was in Cito's place I'd be trying to get every last guy a start, then on the final game do a shuffle so every hitter gets some time in the game, and try to get as many pitchers an inning (unless they pitched the game before) as possible as well.

That was something I liked the idea of, on the final game of the season, if it means nothing, to get everyone in somehow. In '98 I recall during Halladay's near perfect game (one error cost him as it let the extra batter up in the 9th who hit a home run) they had guys leave the field at the start of each inning - so the Jays took the field, then the announcer would say something about one of the players, the player would tip his hat and leave the field. Then another guy the next inning, and so on. Nice way to let fans cheer their favorites.

Of course, being on the road you can't do that, but having the regulars start on Sunday, then pulling them after 5 for 9 subs would be nice.

So...
CA: Buck, Molina
1B: Overbay (final game here probably, let him play it)
2B: Hill, McCoy
3B: Encarnacion, Hoffpauir
SS: Escobar, McDonald
LF: Snider (give as many AB as possible)
CF: Wells, Wise
RF: Bautista (give as many AB as possible)
DH: Lind, JP Arencibia

You might give extra AB's to Encarnacion so he can reach 20 HR maybe (2 away now), Hill if he hits 2 or more by Sunday so he can reach 30 (he is at 26), but that is about it for personal goals. In those cases you could shift their replacement to 1B instead or LF or RF depending. This would be much like a spring training game for both teams as nothing should be at stake - Minnesota is now 1 game back of NYY and TB for home field advantage in the 2nd round of the playoffs but I doubt they'll play their hearts out for that as they'll have a tough first round against one of those two and home field advantage regardless for the first round.

For pitching I'd start Rzep for 3, then mix in..
4th: Purcey
5th: Tallet
6th: Camp
7th: Frasor
8th: Downs
9th: Gregg (if needed)

Shuffle as needed based on Saturday's game. I figure Camp/Frasor/Downs/Gregg all deserve a send off if possible, Tallet has been a 'good soldier' and this might be his last game, Purcey could be a key piece next year. Mills/Ray/Janssen/Carlson are all nice to get shots but not mandatory (make sure they play at some point though in the weekend - Ray already has and so have Janssen & Purcey & Buchholtz & Tallet).

Next would be Roenicke, Buchholz plus the M/R/J/C group then have starters ready in the pen if needed - Drabek then Cecil should be good to go if needed for up to 3 innings each, with Hill as emergency around the 21st for 1 or 2 and if it keeps going beyond that ... well ... who knows what would happen (hitters getting a shot to pitch probably on both sides) but by then it would become a legendary game and a heck of a way to end a season. It'd be called the season that wouldn't end I suspect and I know we'd all love to see that :)

Buchholz's @ 89-90 may be a bit dissappointing but people need to keep in mind that after he came came from TJ surgery this year he suffered from back problems and ended up on the DL again. I think by next year we will all be loving this pick up. He just needs time to get healthy.

I've watched the video of Bautista's opposite field homer - makes me uneasy regarding his potential use of

PEDs .

Why this one in particular?  Bautista has been hitting 440 foot bombs to left field all season.  For him to hit a 340-350 fit homer to right is not really surprising, and if anything, it is surprising that he has not done this earlier.

I'll grant you that Bautista's improvement at age 29 is unusual (well actually, it started in September of last year), but aside from that, there is nothing about him that would raise particular concern about PEDs.  He doesn't have the FloJo/Ben Johnson body.

I have less problem with Buck playing last night than I did with him playing against Baltimore and Seattle (that whole 20 homer BS) but i was bothered that Molina was out there.
Frankly, Molina is an aging guy who will be blessed to have a job next year as a mentor to JPA (or some other younger starting catcher somewhere. Compared to the chance to start a key part of the future, the chance to throw a bone to a 10 year vet is miniscule on my list of things to do.

That said, if JPA started 3 of thes 4 games against the Twins it hardly matters in terms of development - that ship has sailed.

Trivia.

Ten different pitchers have recorded one or more postseason wins in Blue Jay uniforms. (One guy had five wins, one guy had four, one guy had three, two guys had two, and five guys had one.) Who?

(I know you can look it up. Try to not look it up.)

I thought maybe i was the only one thinking nice thoughts about Bucholz.

I, too, think we'll be fans next year.

Just off the top of my head. No idea who had how many, just trying to put up people with wins.

Key
Stieb
Guzman
Cone
Stewart
Ward
Stottlemyre
Timlin
Henke

Guzman for the most wins. 5 wins.

Al Leite and Pat Hentgen definitely won games in the 1993 WS, and I think Tony Castillo got the W in the 15-14 game. (Duane Ward won the final game.)

I was 15 in '85 and should have a better memory, but I'd guess that Stieb had 3 no decisions in the ALCS.

Doyle is a candidate for one win in '85, I'd guess.

I'd guess that Stieb had 3 no decisions in the ALCS.

Steieb won the opener (he was utterly dominant) and pitched well again in Game 4 (Henke won it in relief.) He took the loss in Game 7. Doyle Alexander never won a post-season game in his career. He was notoriously great in September and awful in October.

Then did Clancy with the third game against the Royals?

Definitely not Clancy - he pitched out of the pen and may have taken one of the losses. It would have been one of the Key starts (Stieb-Key-Alexander started all 7 games) so Key or Henke I expect.

I have less problem with Buck playing last night than I did with him playing against Baltimore and Seattle (that whole 20 homer BS) but i was bothered that Molina was out there.
Frankly, Molina is an aging guy who will be blessed to have a job next year as a mentor to JPA (or some other younger starting catcher somewhere. Compared to the chance to start a key part of the future, the chance to throw a bone to a 10 year vet is miniscule on my list of things to do.

Same old.

Cito can find playing time for every catcher except the one that needs it.

So what is the perfect approach for catcher next year?  We all know what we don't like about the current fin de siecle, but that is almost over. 

What should an ideal manager and AA agree on as the catcher solution for 2011?

Here is what I would love to see, but is it practical?

JPA would catch 70% of the time, surely enough to get him all the seasoning he needs. (What I will be fascinated to learn under that scenario is not whether he can call the kind of game that the current rotation will appreciate - not an issue) but rather whether he can learn to hit 30 HRs p.a. off major league hitting.

The Jays acquire Victor Martinez as a FA in the off-season, who takes 30% of the catching starts (like Molina is doing this year); and when he is not catching he plays at DH (anytime we face a LHP, against whom Lind has been just as bad as possible this year) and sometimes at 1B.

The other issue that needs to be managed in this move will be the Jays' already poor hitting performance against LHP.   Buck is not only a real loss as a hitting catcher, but he is also much stronger against lefties.  JPA, on the other hand, seems to be hugely worse against lefites than righties, at least during the past year at Vegas.

With Victor Martinez, we would bring some additional batting skills against LHP, and we would not have Jose Molina's weak bat and base walking (baserunning is too generous) to kick around anymore.  Note, also, that Molina is only better against LHP this year than Lind, in other words, totally awful.

Finally, this solution would mean that by the time Martinez has to stop catching altogether, d'Arnaud or Jiminez or ... would have arrived.

Of course, Lind would be somewhat upset at this scenario, but maybe he could also do some periodic PH at-bats in later innings, anytime the reliever was a RHP.

What may make this impossible, is that VM may be able to land a full time catching slot somewhere, which he might then insist on.

But if we want JPA  to do a majority of the catching, what alternative solution for the other catching position and for overall batting against LHP would be better?

Definitely not Clancy - he pitched out of the pen and may have taken one of the losses. It would have been one of the Key starts (Stieb-Key-Alexander started all 7 games) so Key or Henke I expect.

Henke won both Games 2 and 4, thanks to timely hitting by Al Oliver.

Victor Martinez is a very good hitter, better than many Blue Jay hitters.  He will probably command a big salary and several years on the contract.

Even if Martinez agrees to a one year contract it will be pricey and to play him at catcher 30% of the time and sometimes at first would be unrealistic.  I doubt if he would sign anywhere without a clear understanding of his playing time, which he would expect to be close to 100% and the time who signs him would need to play him close to 100% to justify his salary.

I have heard that Martinez still wants to catch and so I doubt he would consider signing with the Jays unless he was promised the majority of the catching starts.

To answer your question....unrealistic.

I believe the Jays have three scenarios as they look at the catching position for 2011.

1. Resign John Buck to a likely three year deal.  In this scenario the Jays acknowledge that JP Arencibia is a backup catcher for the foreseeable future.  Buck has said he doesn't see himself as a backup catcher and would expect to play as much as he has this season.  Also, based on his likely salary, you would need to play Buck every day.  Arencibia would fill the Molina role.

2. Anoint JPA as your starting catcher and keep Molina as your number two and mentor.

3. Sign a Buck v2, a free agent catcher on a one year deal who is looking for playing time to prove himself.  Have this catcher and JPA battle and effectively share playing time.  In this scenario you would be unlikely to name a starter, it would be a platoon of sorts.

 

The key to the decision is the Jays opinion of Buck's ability to replicate his 2010 season and what the scouts say JPA is likely to produce.  The major league equivalencies I have seen suggest JPA's production could be similar to Buck's, or at least similar to what Buck might deliver in a non-free agent year.  Therefore I think option 2 or option 3 is most likely, again depending on the internal scouting evaluations of JPA.

Didn't take long for all the right answers to come out:

Guzman    5
Ward    4
Key    3
Stewart    2
Henke    2
Leiter    1
Hentgen    1
Castillo    1
Stieb    1
Cone    1

In favour of option 2 are Molina's reputation as a defensive catcher, his lofty 86 OPS+ in 179 PA this year, and the fact that he knows the Blue Jay pitching staff.

Against option 2 is the fact that Molina's reputation is grossly overstated, his career OPS+ of 62, and his age (36).

I really can't believe that the Jays won't be able to find a much better backup without spending significant dollars. Molina is terrible and will cost $1M. John Buck was an All Star this year and cost $2M.

FA catchers, according to MLBTR:

Brad Ausmus (42) - mutual option for $1MM with a $150K buyout
Rod Barajas (35)
Josh Bard (33)
Henry Blanco (39)
John Buck (30)
Ramon Castro (35) - club option
Ramon Hernandez (35)
Gerald Laird (31)
Victor Martinez (32)
Bengie Molina (36)
Jose Molina (36) - $1.2MM club option
Miguel Olivo (32) - $2.5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
A.J. Pierzynski (34)
Yorvit Torrealba (32) - $3.5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Matt Treanor (35)
Jason Varitek (39)
Gregg Zaun (40) - $2.25MM club option with a $250K buyout


Ranked by OPS (because I'm too lazy too look up OPS+ for each):

Martinez - .843
Castro - .832
Buck - .802
Hernandez - .793
Varitek - .776
Olivo - .765
Zaun - .743
Barajas - .728
Torrealba - .726
Pierzynski - .691
J. Molina - .681
Bard - .638
B. Molina - .621
Treanor - .600
Blanco - .571
Laird - .567
Ausmus - .519

Can we eliminate everyone below Jose except Benji as clearly not an offensive upgrade or enough of a defensive upgrade to make up the difference? Can we further agree that AJ is too much of an ass to discuss?

My guess is Olivo and Castro get their options picked up and Torrealba has a decent shot.

If not, he, along with Martinez, Buck, and Hernandez will hold out for a starting job and, even though they might not have earned it Barajas and Benji will tell themselves they deserve one too.

that leaves Varitek, Zaun, and Jose Molina.

If you don't like those and you want a Free Agent instead of a trade, then you keep your options open until February and hope no one else offers Barajas (or Benji?) a starting job and they get more flexible.

Maybe you can score something through non-tender: Kelly Shoppach has a great defensive rep and at least some potential to hit.

If you want to trade, you might look at buying low on Russel Martin with an eye towards moving him out to 3B as JPA takes over, but that would mean you'd still need an old-timer handy as a reserve catcher when both were in the game, maybe not from opening day but at some point.

I think though, that if the goal is to have a good defender as a reserve, a guy who won't presume himself the starter, a guy who has SOME potential of contributing if he has to start for an  extended period (via injury or failure on JPA's part) ...i tend to think Shoppach, if non-tendered or made available for trade, is the guy.

of course, I thought that last year too so what do i know?

.....The major league equivalencies I have seen suggest JPA's production could be similar to Buck's.... 

So then, why not just keep Buck, rather than gambling on a young prospect who MIGHT eventually be equivalent to Buck?    Buck currently has the 4th-highest OPS of any regular catcher in the American League and he's done a great job with the Jays' young pitchers.  What are the chances that JPA will be equivalent to that next season?   I'd say Buck has a better chance of duplicating his season (or even improving it) than JPA has of attaining that level in the near future.  Some fans assume that the Jays can't afford to give a new contract to John Buck, but the reality is that their payroll is relatively low and they have plenty of money for mutli-year contracts for good young players.  Buck has just turned 30.  He is not so ancient that he will automatically decline next season -- in fact he has improved his OPS over the past few years. 

In reality, of course, this decision will depend on AA's negotiating skills.  If he can craft a creative contract for Buck, with incentives etc, I suspect there is a way to keep him on the team for a couple years at an affordable price.  Why jeopardize that to gamble on a prospect who may or may not be equivalent?

Guys like Raul Chavez could be in the mix as backup catcher. They bring reliable defense and won't complain about lack of playing time.
The AAA & AA teams should have 2 maybe 3 defensive catchers. Maybe we still own B Jeroloman in 2011.
Maybe JPA has nothing more to learn at AAA. I wonder what he has learned in the last month and a half just watching and whatever. In between starts our pitchers have to throw, I hope JPA got to catch these workouts and then talked to the individual pitchers about their individualism. This could have some value.

When does the kid play? We're not really expecting to contend in 2011, right? So if we can't play the kid in a year we're not expecting to contend, then for heaven's sake when can we play him?

Surely someone in the annals of baseball has figured this out -- how to integrate a young potential no.1 catcher into a team, without setting the team back 15 wins. I think the tandem next year is JPA and Molina, and somehow they make the best of it and JPA comes out of that year a chastened, hardened, legitimate no. 1 big league catcher ... or not, and the team has learned something, and they go get a free agent for 2012 to work with D'Arnaud.

CF,

By suggesting Buck be brought back, Can I assume that there is a small possibility that you have some belief that the 2011 Jays can compete.
The opinions are yes, no and maybe to some degree as far as the question of the 2011 Jays competing. Thats IMO.
So then would you guys make possible moves in players depending on your beliefs.
JPA is ML inexperienced as is Drabek and very many relief pitchers on our farm who had very successful 2010 seasons. What will be the cost of these growing pains to our contending chances.

Sorry Flex. I am a slow typer and did not see your post which is an excellent point of view.

can craft a creative contract for Buck, with incentives etc

With all the teams needing a catcher, and Buck coming off an All-Star year, he's not going to need to sign a contract with incentives.  He got non-tendered by the Royals last year and didn't have to sign a contract with incentives.

I feel like I'm the only one who thinks Buck playing 2/3rds of the time with JPA getting the difference, and getting occasional DH starts is the ideal situation at catcher next year.

But I suspect that Buck will get an offer that will be higher and longer than the Jays are willing to go and he'll be leaving.  Too bad he's not an 'A' free agent.

Buck worked well with the pitchers and called a good game, but he was not a good defensive catcher. Alan Ashby was all over him all year, and I trust Ashby's judgment. A catcher better at blocking the ball would have saved Romero ten wild pitches and maybe a couple of losses.

I'm not sure Molina is a huge improvement, but he also calls a good game. I think he may end up playing more next year than he did this year, maybe the split will be 60/40 in JPA's favor, and I like that mix.

When does the kid play? We're not really expecting to contend in 2011, right?

Baseball is an unpredictable game, and the Jays might indeed contend in 2011.  It might not be likely, but it could happen, and I wouldn't want to write off the possibility before the season begins.  By dumping Buck and making JPA the main catcher in 2011, the Jays would be taking a step backwards, and I don't see why it has to be done.  It's not necessary to make JPA the full-time catcher next season, since he can be developed in other ways.  He could play 40 games at catcher, 40 at DH and 40 at 1B next season for example -- or some variation of that.  Buck is much more likely to be an .800 OPS hitter in 2011 than JPA is, and he does a better job of working with the pitchers, so I'd say the Jays should keep him. 

I agree that to give the team the best chance to win it makes sense to have a Buck/JPA tandem. I'm just not certain though that it's best for the team long-term. Buck seems to guard his playing time very jealously. Would that translate into not working well with JPA? Not giving the kid the insights that would lead him to success? I don't know. But I worry that 40 games behind the plate wouldn't be enough. I'd prefer at least 60, but somehow I don't think Mr. Buck would appreciate that, and it could lead to problems.

Also, I'd rather JPA had a better model for how to play the position than the guy who can't be bothered to drop to his knees to block a Romero curveball.

Also, I'd rather JPA had a better model for how to play the position than the guy who can't be bothered to drop to his knees to block a Romero curveball.

Evidently you missed this data from Magpie, in the recent "Your American League All Star Team" thread:

Actually, John Buck has done just fine this season [blocking balls in the dirt]. The team has allowed 75 WP plus PB this season. That is indeed more than the league average of 67 (the Angels, Tigers, and Mariners have been worse - the Jays are even with the Yankees.) But Jose Molina is the guy you're upset with. Molina was behind the plate for 5 of the 9 PB and 29 of the 66 WP; he achieved this in less than one third of the team's total innings. I'd also note that the worst months for WP were April and September, in which the catchers were frequently catching pitchers they were not particularly familiar with (Ricky Romero had 7 of his WP in April; he had another 6 in May; he's had 4 in the four months since.)

So I am ok with the JPA / Jose Molina tandem at 60/40 or 70/30 in JPA's favour - I think JPA needs to have every opportunity to learn his craft at the major league level.

However, what about the fact that the two of them have combined to hit much, much worse against LHP than they do against RHP?  On a Jay's team that is already weak vs. lefties, we now expect to lose Buck, one of the few who lean strongly the other way, and replace him with at bats from players who make the skew even worse.

Has anyone got any brilliant suggestions for where that problem can be attacked over the winter?

It strikes me that an upgrade over Lind at DH must be part of the story, but how to pull that off...

However, what about the fact that the two of them have combined to hit much, much worse against LHP than they do against RHP?

It's very rare for a right-handed batter to have significant reverse platoon splits. There definitely isn't enough data on Arencibia yet for me to concerned that he's one of those.

As for Molina, evidently you're looking at 2010 splits alone and taking them way too seriously. For his career Molina is a horrible hitter regardless, and significantly worse against righties than lefties.

I am referring to JPA's 2010 stats from Vegas (MiLB.com)

Point about Molina is true (and my including him was a bit of a red herring, sorry) but under my scenario of JPA  taking over Buck's ABs and Molina staying about the same, it is the Buck compared to JPA vs. LHP that needs focussing on.

Taking a quick look at the Jays stats it appears to me that the Jays may have 20+ home runs from every position including DH. If so, this would be quite an achievement which I'm not sure has been done before.