Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
The All-Star teams that get to play, that everyone remembers, get picked at the beginning of July when there's an awful lot of baseball yet to be played. Let's do this thing right!


Catcher - Joe Mauer, Minnesota.
That was easy. Mauer basically repeated  his 2006 and 2008 seasons, when he won the Gold Glove and finished in the top five in MVP voting. It would have been nice to see him keep the HR power he suddenly showed last season, but he's still a great player without it. It's much more difficult trying to figure out who should be the runner-up. Victor Martinez, the best hitter in the rest of the field? A.J. Pierzynski, for all his Intangible contributions to a surprisingly decent White Sox team? Actual All-Star John Buck? I say Martinez, my own self.

First Base - Miguel Cabrera, Detroit.
I still think he's been the most valuable bat in the AL this season. Josh Hamilton is the closest competitor, but Hamilton being out of the lineup for most of a month has no value at all and Hamilton also gets a big boost from his home park. Paul Konerko is a pretty easy choice as the runner-up.

Second Base - Robinson Cano, New York.
Cano  will receive an awful lot of support in the MVP voting, if he doesn't win the thing outright. Obviously the best second-baseman in the league this year - what's surprising is that he was the only really good one. The AL East alone used to throw a bunch of quality second basemen out there, but Pedroia and Roberts had seasons ruined by injuries and we were all here to witness the Trials of Aaron Hill. Best choice for runner-up is probably our old pal Orlando Hudson.

Third Base - Adrian Beltre, Boston.
Evan Longoria has had a great year, Beltre's just been better. The Yankees have a guy who drove in 119 runs, which used to impress people a lot - he isn't even being considered. It's a tough crowd this year.

Shortstop - Alexei Ramirez, Chicago
Oh, but the mighty have fallen. The guy in New York isn't even a contender this year. Ramirez is the best of a pretty weak crop. Played good defense and has a little pop at the plate. If Elvis Andrus would ever hit anything more impressive than a single, he'd be the guy (17 extra base hits? In 600 plate appearances?)

Right Field - Jose Bautista, Toronto.
I trust no one will argue with this. Tough to pick a runner-up - I think it's between Shin-Soo Choo and Nick Swisher, with Ichiro Suzuki on the fringes. I think Choo plays better defense than Swisher. Swisher does get to play half his games in that bandbox in the Bronx, but it doesn't seem to help him any - he has no Home/Road split to speak of.

Centre Field - Vernon Wells, Toronto
Another very easy choice - Wells was the best centre fielder in the majors this season, and is there a single living breathing soul who foresaw that back in March? (Hey - if you've got the best guy in the major leagues at his position, is an A- that far out of line?) Are we suddenly seeing a trend - teams are going with  really impressive defensive centre fielders who can't hit much at all - Gutierrez in Seattle, Borbon in Texas. Mike Scoscia keeps playing Peter Bourjos in CF - an amazing defender, but helpless at the plate. I assume everyone would rather have a more complete player - like Wells, or our 2010 runner-up Torii Hunter. But we're getting regular centre fielders who don't hit as much as your average shortstop...

Left Field - Josh Hamilton, Texas
When the Rangers clinched, Hamilton thought it best if he retreated to the trainer's room rather than participate in the usual hi-jinks of beer and champagne being sprayed all over the place. This is wholly understandable - Hamilton is going to spend the rest of his life fighting a hideously strong and ugly monster, one who never gets weak and never gets tired. But gosh, I just thought it was just so damned sad. That's why they play the long season. It's a shame when you can't go to the party and celebrate your achievement. But good for Josh, anyway. Obviously, he blows away the field at his position - it's a long way down to our runner-up, which would be Carl Crawford by a nose over Delmon Young.

DH - David Ortiz, Boston
Not done yet, although Luke Scott has himself a case. It's very close between Ortiz and Scott and Papi's edge may be as slight a thing as being able to make it to the ballpark more often. (Scott was out of the lineup for a few weeks in mid-season.) They're both a clear step ahead of Vlad Guerrero, who had himself a nice bounce-back year anyway.

Starters - Felix Hernandez, Seattle.
Apologies to C.C. Sabathia, Jon Lester, David Price. And Clay Buchholz. And Justin Verlander. I assume, like everyone else, that the Cy Young voting will be a battle between Hernandez and His Numbers and Sabathia and His Wins. I think if you traded the two guys for each other, it would be a battle between Sabathia and His Numbers and Hernandez and His Wins. Hernandez has a ballpark that helps him rather than one that turns routine fly balls into homers. Hernandez has infielders behind him who can still move and field a ground ball. Sabathia has two Hall of Famers sending their statues out to the field every day. I'm pretty cool with flipping a coin between the two of them.

Relievers - Joakim Soria, Kansas City.
There's not much to choose from between Soria and Rafael Soriano, now that Mariano Rivera's September struggles have brought him back mere mortal status. Daniel Bard had a great year for the Red Sox.

Manager - Ron Gardenhire, Minnesota.
No Joe Nathan? No Justin Morneau? No problem. I think the runner-up will be Ron Washington, unless Joe Maddon sneaks in there. Honourable Mentions for Ozzie Guillen, Terry Francona, and Cito Gaston. Best Manager having a lousy year? That would be Mike Scioscia, but losing your best hitter in a home plate celebration would make anyone lose his mind.
Your American League All Star Team | 39 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
China fan - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#223181) #

.....Hey - if you've got the best guy in the major leagues at his position, is an A- that far out of line?

No need to be defensive about your A minus ranking for Vernon Wells.  Most fair-minded people would have to agree with you.  After all, Wells has to be compared to other centre fielders, not to other hitters in general.  I'm amazed at the hostility to Wells on some fan sites, such as DJF.  I think it's taking a while for some fans to adjust their prejudices to the realities of this season....  and of course that salary will continue to tilt people against him.... 

Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#223183) #
DJF? Those are the Dumb Jays Fans?
lexomatic - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#223184) #
There's no need to be defensive about the A- reason.. after it's' not a huge difference between say my opinion (B+, good player having a good year), and his (best player at the position). I do take exception to the use of fair-minded, which I think is a cheap shot and completely innacurate. Calling anyone that disagrees with another's opinion unreasonable is unneccesary and offensive. I'm not going to say anything more because it's not worth a flame war, but yes, Wells's salary will continue to tilt people against him, because I don't think he has a hope of earning 2/3 of the value by continuing what he's done. that doesn't mean I don't think he's not good, or that he didn't have a good season.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#223186) #
I'd add that it's certainly possible to be the best in the league at your position and not merit an A... What grade would we give Alexei Ramirez, if he was a Blue Jay? My first impulse is - yup - B+
Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#223187) #
By the way, Lex (if I may call you that, we're not formal around here) - I didn't feel I was being defensive in my remark about Wells. I thought I was sneaking in a wisecrack, and at your expense I'm sad to say. Which is wholly unworthy of one of my semi-advanced years and I hope you'll let it slide. Gotta amuse myself somehow...
TamRa - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#223189) #
First Base - Miguel Cabrera, Detroit.
I still think he's been the most valuable bat in the AL this season. Josh Hamilton is the closest competitor, but Hamilton being out of the lineup for most of a month has no value at all and Hamilton also gets a big boost from his home park. Paul Konerko is a pretty easy choice as the runner-up.

No more so that Bautista.

Toronto without JB is only slightly better than Detroit without MC....the difference in BA is like 15 hits over the course of the year, Fangraphs has Bautista at 6.8 WAR and Cabrera at 6.3, while BR has Cabrera ahead.

If Cabrera has been better, it's by a very small margin.

Kasi - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#223190) #
The only two competitors to Wells I think for CF in the AL this year are Gardner and Rios. It's pretty close between them all, and the question is do you want defense and OBP (Gardner), or power (Wells) or a more rounded approach (Rios). Don't think there is too much issue with Wells being there, especially from a Toronto fan.

Once again I think you underrate Crawford and overrate Cano. Crawford has as much WAR as anyone other then Hamilton. Cano is struggling and I don't think the Yankees are going to win the AL East. Maybe if he busts out this week, but I think it is still Hamilton's award to lose.

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#223194) #

Borbon in Texas

Maybe I haven't been keeping a close enough eye on it here in Tejas, but hasn't Hambone played CF quite a bit, perhaps even more than Borbon? And wouldn't he ace out Wells, if that's the case?

What's better, Bautista-Wells-Hamilton or Bautista-Hamilton-Crawford?

Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#223197) #
Borbon's played 127 games in CF, Hamilton's played 39.

As a hitter, Crawford is obviously a long, long way behind Hamilton. Hamilton doesn't just do everything better - he does everything a lot better. It's not close. With the bat, Hamilton is to Crawford what Crawford is to Aaron Hill. No left fielder's defensive advantage in the world could even begin to make up for that - not even if we were comparing Crawford's defense to Manny's - and Josh Hamilton is a good outfielder. An MVP vote for Crawford would be like the votes Shannon Stewart received a few years back. Utterly inexplicable.

Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#223198) #
If Cabrera has been better, it's by a very small margin.

Tis not so deep as a well, nor as wide as a church door. But tis enough, twill serve!
Jonny German - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#223204) #
Interesting that the Toronto SS tandem would be the All Star at that position if eligible. Ramirez has more speed but doesn't use it effectively. I believe the consensus is that the Toronto duo are top notch defensively, dont' know what people think of Ramirez on D.
 
Ramirez: .281/.311/.427 for an OPS+ of 95 in 608 PA, 13 steals, 8 CS.

Sea Bass: .259/.296/.497 for an OPS+ of 112 in 328 PA, 1 steal, 0 CS.
Escobar: .286/.346/.373 for an OPS+ of 99 in 244 PA, 1 steal, 1 CS.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#223206) #
I agree, Jonny.  Anthopoulos/Gaston deserve substantial credit for getting something out of very little. 
Kasi - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#223208) #
I think that's just more how great Hamilton has been this year. Crawford if you compare him to almost any other position would be tops WAR wise for that position, and top offensively for most. Crawford does hit for average, he has some power, and he has a ton of speed. He's going to finish with something like .310, 18 HR, 95 RBIs, 110 R and 50 steals. That is an amazing offensive season no matter how one looks at it, and then you add his defense to it and you get an MVP candidate imo. This holds especially true if they win the AL East and secure top seed.

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#223210) #
Incidentally, both Yankee centerfielders have done a little better in the WAR department than Wells despite less playing time.  The key according to the metrics is defence, and whether you use 1, 2 or 3 years of data or whether you use UZR, DRS or TZ both Granderson and Gardner come out substantially ahead. 
Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#223214) #
WAR - what is it good for?
CeeBee - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#223215) #
Absolutely nothing.
Kasi - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#223216) #
More use by far than RBIs, runs, wins or a number of other different stats I can mention. If you want to come up with a different stat or metric for evaluating players that actually takes defensive contributions into place (and removes defensive/ballpark factors for pitching) then go make your own. The major league teams all have staffs filled with people who know this stuff inside and out. They use it day in and day out to evaluate their players, develop them and make trades to improve their team. To mock them when they are such a huge part of the industry now puzzles me.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#223217) #
Kasi, I think you missed the joke.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#223219) #
WAR - what is it good for?

Player Evaluation And Common Entertainment.
CeeBee - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#223220) #
Sure was a heckuva good song tho :)
scottt - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#223221) #
Not a bad outing from Drabek. With a catcher that can block a ball in the dirt he would have held up to CC.

Might be JPA's last game this year, I don't think the Jays face another Cy Young contender.

ayjackson - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#223222) #
They face Liriano - he should be in the Cy conversation.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#223223) #
I always say that every time I go to the ball park, I'm going to see something I've never seen before - it's just a question of whether I'm paying close enough attention to notice. Tonight was easy - the always surprising 31 GDP, and the K safe at second on E2.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#223224) #
With a catcher that can block a ball in the dirt

Actually, John Buck has done just fine this season. The team has allowed 75 WP plus PB this season. That is indeed more than the league average of 67 (the Angels, Tigers, and Mariners have been worse - the Jays are even with the Yankees.) But Jose Molina is the guy you're upset with. Molina was behind the plate for 5 of the 9 PB and 29 of the 66 WP; he achieved this in less than one third of the team's total innings. I'd also note that the worst months for WP were April and September, in which the catchers were frequently catching pitchers they were not particularly familiar with (Ricky Romero had 7 of his WP in April; he had another 6 in May; he's had 4 in the four months since.)
Jonny German - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#223231) #
Thanks for the data Magpie. Alan Ashby has taken up the ball blocking as his hobby horse and what with him being A 17-year Major League Veteran I had basically taken him at his word that the Jays are just plain doing it wrong. Nice to hear that it's not really that bad, and that it backs up my feeling that Jose Molina must go. 2010 has been his best offensive season ever and has produced a whopping 84 OPS+. Poor defence really isn't going to be acceptable when he goes back to his usual 60 OPS+.
Jonny German - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#223232) #
Molina defenders are going to want to bring up Jose's great control of the running game. I thought I'd check if that's a greater or lesser factor than his poor ball blocking. Here are the relevant numbers:
 
PB WP SB CS Inn
Buck 4 37 47 18 915
Molina 5 29 29 19 427
 
If we count each Passed Ball, Wild Pitch, and Stolen Base as 1 extra base for the opposition and each Caught Stealing as 1 fewer base, we have Buck allowing a net 70 extra bases and Molina allowing a net 44 extra bases.
 
Extra bases per 9 innings:
Buck .69
Molina .93
 
I'll allow that Molina's advantage in Catcher ERA is likely more than just small sample size variation, but it's not enough to make me want to put up with his other deficiencies.
Chuck - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#223233) #
If we count each Passed Ball, Wild Pitch, and Stolen Base as 1 extra base for the opposition and each Caught Stealing as 1 fewer base, we have Buck allowing a net 70 extra bases and Molina allowing a net 44 extra bases.

The trouble with this back-of-the-napkin approach is that it mixes apples and orages. A caught stealing is MUCH more valuable than a passed ball is costly. A caught stealing is worth an out. A passed ball simply costs a base (a prevented passed ball does not save an out nor does it even save a baserunner).
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#223234) #
Yeah.  Here's Tango on catcher defence evaluation with links to Tom Ruane and others.  The linear weight for a caught stealing is much higher than for a PB/WP. 

Ashby has been critical of both catchers for their weakness in "catching". 

All that aside, 1 walk in 6 innings against the Yankees is a very nice number for Drabek. Overall, he's walked 5 and struck out 12 in 17 innings.  With his ground-ball rate, that will play very nicely if he can keep it up.  When you look at the list of pitchers who might get starts in 2011- Marcum, Romero, Cecil, Morrow, Zep, Drabek, Hill, Mills, Stewart,  it is hard to be pessimistic.  
Jonny German - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#223235) #

Good point, I didn't think that through very thoroughly.

If we double the value of the Caught Stealings versus the other events, we have them pretty much equal - Molina at .53 extra bases / 9 innings, Buck at .51. Don't have the time or inclination to figure out if this is a reasonable calculation. It gets more complicated by the fact that a caught stealing usually eliminates the possibility of a double play. (The Jays have allowed a total of 1,480 singles, walks, and hit batters, and have turned 458 double plays. This is not an insignificant factor).

Chuck - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#223237) #
Jonny, your 2 SB = 1 CS adjustment should serve well for broad stroke calculations given that the break even rate for stolen bases is typically around 70% (based on the offensive context of the league in question).
Magpie - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#223238) #
I would say, based on last night and his problems with Romero back in April, that Buck does appear to have some problems with his first few looks at a pitcher's curve ball. Everybody who throws a curve always mixes in a few 55 footers - that's just what you get with curves and splitters (not that anyone on the current staff makes much use of a splitter - it ain't like the old days!) Romero and Drabek, along with Downs, are the guys here who throw the most curves.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#223239) #
I'll allow that Molina's advantage in Catcher ERA is likely more than just small sample size variation

How would anyone know, one way or the other? (This is yet another of those issues where the lack of an alternate timeline makes actual knowledge impossible. Respect the Fog!)

We do know that his pitchers have indeed had a better ERA working with Molina than with the rest of the team in 5 of his last 6 seasons, and the one year they didn't was the year he split between two teams. Which would make extremely difficult to get a good handle on that particular season anyway.
Anders - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#223240) #

Not a bad outing from Drabek. With a catcher that can block a ball in the dirt he would have held up to CC.

My throroughly unscientific impression from 518 was that Drabek was just breaking off a couple of nasty, nasty breaking pitches. The first strikeout on the curve in the dirt seemed like it went 55 feet and would have been hard for anyone to handle.

In a semi-related note, last home game of the year, Cito appreciation night! There should be a big crew of Bauxites out - VBF, Alex, Thomas and myself were all in 518 last night, we usually end up about 6-7 rows back. Come out!

Magpie - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#223241) #
You'll notice, by the way, that there are 48 stolen base attempts with Molina behind the plate, and just 65 with Buck catching. This seems odd at first glance - Buck has caught more than twice as many innings, and everyone knows Molina has the better arm. I assume Brandon Morrow has a lot to do with it - Morrow isn't Brett Cecil at eliminating the running game. Molina caught most of Morrow's innings, and they amount to roughly 40% of Molina's innings behind the plate. 

Well hell, let's get the data... (pause, while I get the data...)

                    IP    SB Att/9 IP
David Purcey       33.0    0.27
Kevin Gregg        57.0    0.32
Brett Cecil       167.2    0.32
Brian Tallet       76.2    0.35
Jesse Litsch       46.2    0.39
Ricky Romero      202.0    0.40
Scott Downs        60.1    0.45
Casey Janssen      67.1    0.67
Shaun Marcum      188.1    0.72
Shawn Camp         70.1    1.02
Jason Frasor       61.1    1.03
Brandon Morrow    146.1    1.05
Marc Rzepczynski   56.2    1.11
Dana Eveland       44.2    1.21

Gosh, why would you even bother running against Eveland? Just let the hitters have at him. Don't risk running yourself out of an inning...

Just for fun - Nolan Ryan (as bad at holding a baserunner as anyone I've ever seen) had 1.64 SB attempts per 9 IP.
Alex Obal - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#223243) #
[CERA] is yet another of those issues where the lack of an alternate timeline makes actual knowledge impossible. Respect the Fog!

You definitely can't deduce it from the catchers' ERA alone. What you can go after is the variables that may affect each catcher's ERA. Think Pitch FX. Does each pitcher systematically hit spots better, or get more break, or get more calls, when a certain catcher is behind the plate? Do certain Cs tend to get more swinging strikes than others out of similar pitches in similar counts, indicating that they're better at reading hitters' minds? Stuff like that. It takes hard work to do this, and in many cases you won't learn anything. But it's possible.

Performance will make you argue in circles, which is exactly what the Fog wants. Disaggregate evidence is the way out.

Mike Green - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#223245) #
The method employed by Tango for catcher defense evaluation with respect to SB/CS/WP/PB, in the article I linked to above, could also be used to address the components of CERA through Pitch Fx.
Alex Obal - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#223249) #
Sure could. It'd be a bit messier...
mathesond - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#223252) #
In a semi-related note, last home game of the year, Cito appreciation night! There should be a big crew of Bauxites out - VBF, Alex, Thomas and myself were all in 518 last night, we usually end up about 6-7 rows back. Come out!

I'd love to join you folks, but Alejandro Escovedo is playing the opera House tonight, and I'm in a rockin' mood...
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#223255) #
It's a great night for music in Toronto.  I'd love to see the XX at Massey Hall or a couple of other lesser-known artists but I cannot. Work interferes with baseball and music; fortunately, it doesn't interfere with eating well or I'd have to retire very early.:)

I do hope that there's a big crowd for Cito's last game.


Your American League All Star Team | 39 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.