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It's time once more for me to pick up, with failing hands, the torch first carried by the great Dave Till....

The grading scheme goes more or less like this:

A - Outstanding
B - Good
C - Average
D - Below Average
E - Fail. (Replacement Level? What the hell is Replacement Level anyway? I understand the concept perfectly well, but actually trying to define it? Seems  a little like pinning jello to the wall. It's slippery as hell, and it keeps moving around. Anyway...)
F - Epic Fail

The class had a remarkable year, all things considered. What are those things we must consider? How about: a) the departure of one of the team's all time greats, and b) the extremely disappointing work turned in by both of 2009's star pupils, Messrs Hill and Lind. As I recall, a great many people expected this team to lose at least 90 games in 2010 - even I, normally a fairly optimistic sort, went with 76-86. Had any of us even imagined that Aaron Hill and Adam Lind would each lose some 70 points of batting average and a third of their HRs... well, come on. Surely only divine intervention could prevent 100 losses, no?

Which is why we begin with matching B+ grades for the freshman GM and the retiring field manager. Anthopoulos stuck with his program, didn't let himself get bullied into trading players just because a lot of people wanted him to, and made out very well with his short-term fixes: John Buck, Alex Gonzalez, Fred Lewis. And Cito Gaston demonstrated, presumably for the last time, that one of his key, if always unrecognized, skills as a manager has been helping young arms graduate into major league pitchers.

As for the guys who actually play the game - we begin with the top of the class and work our way down.

Jose Bautista A+
There's not a whole lot to say about the greatest season any RH batter has had in a Blue Jays uniform. I have no doubt whatsoever that he is "for real." That doesn't mean we should expect him to hit 50 HRs every year, because no one does that. But I'll be shocked if he doesn't hit about 110 of them over the next three years. I think he should be in RF by the way, and I think he'll get better out there. Bautista actually hasn't played very much in the outfield as a pro. He basically didn't play there at all in the minors, so it's been On the Job Training at the major league level.  He still has a bit to learn about reading the ball off the bat and taking the best route. He's got the tools, as they say.

Vernon Wells A-

When he's healthy and on top of his game, he's still quite the ballplayer. He's never put together two good seasons in a row, and I think this was the year he really did lose a step (although I also thought his defense bounced back considerably this year.) He's about ready to devolve into a Joe Carter type RBI guy at the plate. Of course it was utterly impossible for him to drive in many runs this season, as he spent the first half of the year batting immediately behind Hill and Lind. If you're at the park and you're in the mood, Wells is a rewarding player to watch closely - he's as smart a player on the field as anyone we've had here since Alomar.

Ricky Romero B+
The young staff doesn't really have an ace. Romero was the best of the bunch in 2010, but it was very much a case of primus inter pares. You can sure understand why Ricciardi fell in love with him - he's just a bulldog out there. And maybe it's just me, but I think it's very cool to have a pitcher who takes the mound to the strains of Dr Dre and Tupac chanting out "California Love." Still learning what he can and can't do.

John Buck B+
Doesn't throw all that great, but does a very fine job working with the pitchers which is much more important, anyway. This team works very hard preparing for the other team's hitters, and it was something that placed Arencibia - coming in from another league in mid-season - at an enormous disadvantage. Buck has made small, incremental improvements as a hitter pretty well every season since he arrived in the majors. This has got to stop eventually, you would think. Right about now seems a likely time. On the other hand, he only turned 30 a couple of months ago and he hasn't had a lot of wear - he should be a good player for the next three years at least.

Scott Downs B+

Still the best reliever on the team, but over the last two years he hasn't been nearly as untouchable as he was in 2007 and 2008. John Gibbons used him very aggressively - he made 81 appearances in 2007 - and Downs may be one of those guys who needs to be used like that to be at his best. Gaston was quite a bit more conservative with him. This was probably because Downs kept hurting himself, but I'd note that he wasn't hurting himself pitching - he was hurting himself fielding his position, or swinging the bat.

Shaun Marcum B
A marvelous comeback year, and he clearly seems to have emerged in the post-Doc era as the spiritual heart and leader of the pitching staff, Unlike Doc he seems to positively relish the role. On the mound, he's not particularly efficient, so he's always going to need more help from his bullpen than Romero. And I worry about the health of his arm going forward. Nevertheless, I have become a huge fan. I absolutely love watching him blow that 85 mph fastball by people. I can't get enough of it (probably because it validates everything I've ever said here about pitching - but never mind!) Anyway, I enjoyed watching that more than anything else this team showed me all season. Even more than Jose...

Shawn Camp B
Becoming one of my favourites, mainly because it's hard to imagine a pitcher with less charisma and less mound presence. He's Tony Castillo, without the excitement (and Tony always looked as if he was stifling a yawn on the mound.) Camp just works through his innings, limits the damage, and gets the team into the dugout.

Yunel Escobar B
An unusual player - he's almost 28 years old, and he still seems completely raw, like a 21 year old with tremendous tools who still needs all kinds of lessons in fundamentals. To their credit, the Blue Jays seem willing to help him out, and to his credit, Escobar seems willing to take the instruction. That, by the way, does not speak well for the current state of the Braves organization, which during the Schuerholz years regarded teaching young men how to play baseball as what they did, a point of pride.

Brett Cecil B
Right now he's a solid, middle of the rotation guy - and he's also just turned 24 and he has the tools to become considerably more than that. Like Morrow, he's still in the process of harnessing his tools. He's probably further along than Morrow, although the tools aren't quite so eye-popping.  Seems to be running out of gas late in the year (and is he carrying a bit more weight than he should?) but he does compete out there. Marcum and Romero, of course, are both absolutely fierce competitors out there, and it seems to be spreading to the rest of the staff...

Alex Gonzalez B
Played great for the Jays, and hit better here than he's hit anywhere in his long career, so Anthopoulos cashed him in for someone who was both: a) just as good right now who also b) had a chance to be much better going forward. I highly doubt there were any similar offers for Buck or Bautusta.

John McDonald B
The most important thing Cito Gaston accomplished during his second tour was graduating the young arms into major league pitchers. But it's also been lots of fun watching these career utility infielders quite unexpectedly evolve into all-star type players under his watch - Marco Scutaro in 2009, Jose Bautista in 2010. There wasn't really room for John McDonald to join the club, but he was part of the program too. McDonald posted a better slugging percentage this season than Lyle Overbay, Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Travis Snider, and Edwin Encarnacion. That's one hell of a utility infielder, people.

Brandon Morrow B-
The proverbial million dollar arm... and everyone I talk to around the team simply raves about what a fine young man he is, how coachable he is, how much he wants to get better. He made an awful lot of progress this year. I really don't think there's any limit as to how good he can be.

Kevin Gregg B-
He ain't pretty, but he generally accomplishes the mission. Fights his control far too much to be an elite closer, but does anyone actually expect him to be an elite closer?

David Purcey B-
It's a much simpler job description, coming out of the pen - two pitches are quite enough to get by, you're not going to face anybody twice in the same game - and that seems to suit Purcey just fine. He's been eased very carefully into the job - Gaston is very, very good at this type of thing - and I expect him to be a key component of next year's pen. He's hard to hit, he strikes guys out. Like Gregg, he fights his control from time to time. Purcey's not a youngster, but he's still young enough as a pitcher to make some progress on that front.

Lyle Overbay C+

The first six weeks of 2010 were awful enough to completely spoil his season, but from the middle of May through the end of the year Overbay played about as well as he's ever played. Interestingly, he also arrested some of his decline against southpaws this season. He had 6 HRs and a .740 OPS against LHP in 2010 - over the previous two years, he'd managed just 1 homer and an OPS below .540. He's a free agent, and he turns 34 in January, but I don't see that the team has anyone better waiting in the wings. Never mind defense - do you completely trust Adam Lind to be more productive with the bat? He might be... he was in 2009, he probably will be in 2011 - but he might not. Overbay was better than Lind in 2008 and 2010.

Jason Frasor C+
He's always been my whipping boy, of course. Reverted to form after a very impressive 2009. But he was hardly bad- he was just... OK. His former GM said he freezes up in the big moments, something I've said myself. But that's probably not fair. It's more accurate to say that Frasor is a thrower, not a pitcher. When his stuff is working, he's just fine. When it isn't, he doesn't have anything to fall back on. He can't pitch his way out of trouble, like Camp or Marcum. All he can do is keep throwing, and hope for the best.

Casey Janssen C+
A much better season than I thought he was capable of, which I'm pleased to report if only because seems a very likeable fellow. Took some real steps forward - he managed to both reduce his walks to something like his previous levels while increasing his strikeouts significantly. Still gives up too many hits, but I'm much more optimistic about him going forward than I was a year ago.

Jose Molina C
Molina was a big upgrade on Rod Barajas, who was last year's starter. His defensive skills are extremely narrow - he moves about as well as you'd expect a Molina to move, and he can be a little careless on balls in the dirt. But he throws very, very well and he's done an outstanding job of working with the young pitchers. Even better than Buck.

Fred Lewis C
Not really a good fit. He was acquired to be a bench player, injuries forced him into the lineup and he ran with it for a while - but he's not a starter on this team and he doesn't seem ready to accept anything less. And he doesn't really have the skill set I'd want from a fourth outfielder anyway.

Dewayne Wise C-
Now here - almost - is a fourth outfielder! First of all, he accepts the job. Second, he can play all three spots in the field. Third, he can come off the bench and pinch run. Alas, he's not quite accomplished enough at the plate. If only there was just one thing he could do better than the average guy - like hit LH (or hit RHs, I'm not fussy!), or get on base, or something...

Edwin Encarnacion D+
His tools are tempting, are they not? He's athletic around the bag at third - quick reactions, strong arm. At the plate...  I don't care what Cito Gaston says. This guy is the strongest hitter on the team. He's a beast. Did you see that shot he hit the other day against the Orioles to tie the game (the one Overbay won with his walkoff in the 11th) - Encarnacion reached down for a breaking ball below the knees, hit it with basically one hand, and drove it well over the fence in CF, some 400 feet away. Sooner or later, the Law of Large Numbers says he's going stay healthy for a full year. If that ever happens, he could quite easily put it all together and explode for 40 plus homers. Don't think it's going to happen here - but on the other hand, I don't see anyone actually in place who can move him off the position.

Jesse Carlson D+
Unlikely to get back to where he was in 2008, but he's making some progress. And it's not like he was actually bad in 2009.

Travis Snider D
His manager stuck with him, as he stuck with Overbay, through his dreadful start. Alas for Snider, just as he was getting it turned around, he hurt his wrist, missed more than two months, and was basically starting from scratch when he came back. Makes an awful lot of rookie mistakes, which is what you'd expect of someone who was rushed to the majors in such an ungodly hurry. I think, like everyone else, that he's going to be pretty good. He isn't all that good yet, but he's working on it.

Kyle Drabek D-
Not quite ready for prime time. But really, really close. Really close.

Rommie Lewis D-
He looked like a decent enough lefty out of the pen for a while there. He went and gave up 8 runs over 2 IP in his last two outings, which sort of skewed his season totals in an ugly way. He should hang in there. He's still got a chance to be Trever Miller.

Adam Lind E
It's OK to be a total klutz everywhere but the batter's box when you're hitting. When you're not hitting... it's a major problem. I never expected Lind to be as good as he was in 2009, and I never expected him to be as bad as he's been this year. But really, all that happened this year was he went into a slump and had a devil of a time getting out of it. So his slump lasted for two months. Remember, he got off to a decent enough start this year - he hit .286/.359/.484 in April, which is just fine. But over 53 games May and June, he hit exactly like the pitcher he's supposed to be replacing in the batting order - .166/.219/.276, which is gruesome. It was bad enough and protracted enough to ruin his season. In the three months since then, he's hit .265/.308/.504.

Aaron Hill E
I've never been the biggest Hill fan, but this was just weird. As I write this, Hill is hitting .197 on his balls in play, which is freakish and amazing. His career figure is .289, and it's only that low because of this year - the lowest figure he'd ever posted before was. 288 in 2009. I've heard some observers say he's gotten "homer happy" - I tend to agree.  I think he's picked up Dick Schofield disease, in which a guy who is not really a home run hitter insists on trying to hit a homer every time up. To his credit, he was able to leave all that in the dugout when he took the field.

Brian Tallet E
A lot of you are probably eager to see the last of Tallet and I can't really blame you - he's been pretty awful. Injuries forced him into the rotation in 2009, and it's pretty clear that working as a starter has seriously messed him up. I would point out that his last three years used exclusively as a reliever can stand being compared to the work of Scott Downs. Also, as bad as Tallet was this year, and that was pretty bad indeed, he was still able to shut down LH batters (.182/.234/.354.) He may be quite capable of replacing Downs next year.

Mark Rzepcynski E

In 2009, opposing batters hit .225 against Rzep - this year, they hit .310. That's really the only difference between the two seasons, but it's quite enough. Otherwise - his walks and HRs allowed are the same. His strikeouts are down, but not all that much. But there is a pretty big difference between hitting .310 and hitting .225, and because his control is so iffy, Rzepczynski really has to limit the number of base hits he gives up.

J.P. Arencibia E
He did announce his presence With Authority, which was a good thing, because he's gone 1-25 since that momentous day. As a catcher, he's clearly not yet in sync with the pitchers and the coaching staff - and that's exactly what you'd expect from someone dropped in from another league in the middle of the season. You may say, well, let him learn on the job. Which would be fine, except we're also trying to develop the young pitchers. Everyone just forgets about them. But I'm not worried. I'm sure he'll be better if he's on the team from the first day of spring training.

Brad Mills E

What worries me about Mills is not the 86 mph fastball - that's no problem, lots of guys can succeed with that. It's that weird delivery of his - I just have trouble believing he can consistently command his repertoire throwing that way. I'm probably worried about nothing - what looks weird to me probably feels completely natural to him, which is far more important. On the other hand - he hasn't done it yet.

Jesse Litsch E
He clearly did something - besides pitching so poorly - to annoy his manager. I have a strong suspicion it had something to do with conditioning. He definitely picked the wrong guy to irritate. Cito Gaston does not take any crap from pitchers, and for all of his fabled patience with hitters (Travis Snider and Lyle Overbay this April just past) I've never seen a manager more willing than Gaston to throw a pitcher off the bus and give someone else a shot. Anyone else - a ten year veteran of the minors, a kid from AA.

Josh Roenicke E

Still throws really hard. Still doesn't know how to pitch. He's eight months younger than Shaun Marcum in human terms, a lifetime younger as a pitcher.

Mike McCoy E
He's probably a capable utility guy - he can pinch run, he can play almost anywhere on the field. But in his very limited playing time, he couldn't crack the Mendoza Line and he struck out in more than a quarter of his at bats.

Jarret Hoffpauir E
Mike McCoy without the speed? Or the versatility?

Shawn Hill E

If he can stay healthy, who knows? Maybe he can be a decent major league pitcher. But I'm pretty sure he's not going to stay healthy. The act of pitching simply does not agree with his elbow, as two Tommy John surgeries (and an arthroscopic procedure in between) would suggest.

Dana Eveland E

No one really took him seriously as a starting pitcher on this team and in this division - at least I hope no one did - but he had himself a good camp back in March. This let the team use him to buy a bit of time for Cecil and Rzepczynski (who had injury problems in the spring.)

Randy Ruiz E

It's a swell story - veteran minor leaguer gets hot for 33 games in the majors, and parlays it into a nice contract in Japan. It wasn't all that long ago that people were complaining when Baustista was getting at bats instead of Ruiz. Ah, memories!

Jeremy Accardo F

I assume we've seen the last of him. He's lost a bit off his fastball, and the forearm injury seems to have taken away his splitter. Which doesn't leave all that much. You must admit, he does not lack for confidence. It can be irritating when you hear someone blame everyone else for his problems, but for a professional athlete it can sometimes be a necessary trick of the mind.

Jeremy Reed F
Better than Delucci.

Nick Green F
Better than me.


Blue Jays Report Card | 148 comments | Create New Account
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pooks137 - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#223034) #

I missed the boat on Jesse Litsch angering Cito.  I really don't remember any mention of it before he hurt his hip again.

Are you referring to Shawn Hill and Drabek getting starts in Sept as the 10 yr minor vet and the kid from AA respectively?  I thought the disappearance of Jesse Litsch was equal parts ineffectiveness and chronic hip injury.

ayjackson - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#223036) #
In 2009, Rzep had a funky delivery that some predicted would see him end up in the bullpen, but he was consistent with it and it seemed to work for him.  This year, the coaching staff tinkered with it and Rzep could never find consistency with the new mechanics.  It might work for him long term, if it doesn't derail his career in the mean time.
Gerry - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#223038) #

I would probably quibble a little on a few ratings.

I think highly of Shawn Camp too but while he was outstanding in the first half, he has been more average in the second.

I am not sure Casey Janssen would rate that highly with me.  He was used mainly in low leverage situations and was 50/50 to run into trouble.

If you grade Jesse Carlson on his major league numbers he has been better than that grade, but the first half of his year was a wasteland.

I would have moved Brandon Morrow up a semi-grade, he was one of the best stories out of the Jays this season.

lexomatic - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#223039) #
I can't really think of Wells' season as an A type season. Sure he's bounced back... to about where most of us thought he would. 270 30 HRs.. and while that's better this year than probably any other time this millenium, it's not THAT good. In my opinion someone should come out and have a season that is significantly beyond expectations for them, or be dominant. Joe Carter pt 2 is not an A season, it' is a solid B, B+ even (not many in the OF are hitting more HRs than Wells), but he does't get on base and he's not a dominant defensive player (I will admit that he has appeared to the eye to have regained something in the field this year as well). It adds up to a good player having a good season.
I think Marcum and Romero are more deserving of A's than Wells, and I don't think that they deserve one either. 

Magpie - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#223040) #
Joe Carter pt 2 is not an A season

Agreed but Wells actually is better than Joe. (As long as he's slugging at least .500 anyway.)
Chuck - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#223041) #
For what it's worth, here are the WAR numbers from FanGraphs for many of the regulars:

Bautista 6.9
Wells 3.8
Romero 3.8
Morrow 3.6
Marcum 3.0
Cecil 2.5
Buck 2.2
Overbay 1.8
Encarnacion 1.4
Hill 0.7
Lind -0.5
Dave Till - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#223042) #
*blushes* Thanks for the shout-out.

For me, this season has produced some unexpected good news, a little unexpected bad news, and the usual expected bad news.

The good news: the Jays didn't suck. (I predicted 70 wins, and was secretly expecting worse.) The starting pitching, which could have turned out to be a black hole, has taken huge steps forward: Romero, Marcum, Cecil and Morrow are all legitimate rotation starters now. (In an alternate universe, Marcum recovered from his injury about as well as Litsch did, Romero turned into the next Gus Chacin, Cecil remained a triple-A hopeful, and Morrow became the next Jose Nunez.) Jose Bautista has been... well, you probably know. Vernon Wells has had a great season (his OBP isn't great, but he's 8th in the league in total bases - ahead of Vlad, among others).

(Side note: it's interesting to note how uncontroversial Escobar's play and attitude has been while here. He got tossed out of one game for reasons unknown, but for the most part he's just done his job. It seems like he's always been here.)

Better than this: the organization has some legitimate prospects up the middle and on the mound (D'Arnaud, Hechevarria, Gose, Drabek) who didn't exist a year ago. I was expecting three to four years of down time before the team began to rebuild.

The unexpected bad news: Hill and Lind. I wrote elsewhere that Hill's trouble was that he tried to be more selective in the spring, which destroyed his timing. By the end of the year, he was back to the Hill of 2009; the '09 numbers will never come back, as he started that year with a tremendous hot streak. but I don't think we need to worry about him. Lind's problem was that pitchers found holes in his swing, and now he needs to adjust. He's done some adjusting, but the Josh Phelps Trail Of Tears is still a real possibility, alas.

The expected bad news: despite all of the good things that happened to the Jays, they're still in the Division Of Doom. It will be hard to climb out of fourth place. It's easier to get from 70 wins to 85 than from 85 to 90, and it gets exponentially harder after that. I think that Anthopoulos is on the right track, but there's a long long way still to go.

Mike Green - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#223043) #
Marcum's actually been the most effective pitcher on the club.  He deserves a B+.  Hill has had a very disappointing year, but a decent fielding second baseman who hits 25 homers merits a D+ or so. 

A final little factoid on Jose Bautista's season.  In the second half, his BABIP has reached a more normal .256, and he hit .300 courtesy of all those homers. 

Magpie - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#223044) #
Hill has certainly had one of the weirdest seasons I have ever heard of. Normally, if you see someone who's hitting .208 with 25 HRs, you assume it's some one like Rob Deer. Young Dave Kingman. You just know there's about 175 strikeouts involved, all part of the package. But not Hill. What he's done this season is just off-the-wall weird. Bizarre. And unrelentingly awful, of course. It's not like he didn't make enough outs already.
Mike Green - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#223046) #
Y'know who makes tons and tons of outs every year, Magpie?  Vernon Wells.  It's just part of the package.  Let's put it this way.  Wells had a poor 2009 and a good 2010.  Hill had a good 2009 and a poor 2010.  Hill's 2009 was probably more valuable than Wells' 2010 and his 2010 was more valuable than Wells' 2009.  Oddly, they are in a weird way similar ballplayers.  Play a key defensive position with good instincts and a little less foot speed than would be ideal.  Good pop. Frustrating tendency to make swing at pitches they shouldn't and make weak contact. 

You can use these guys, but it sure helps if you've got somebody around who gets on base and maybe has decent wheels. 

Magpie - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#223047) #
I missed the boat on Jesse Litsch angering Cito

Gaston's DNA makes it difficult for him to rip one of his players in public. When explaining his extremely quick hook for Litsch on multiple occasions, he kept saying that Litsch gets tired in a hurry. Which is Cito-speak for "He's fat and out of shape."
Magpie - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#223048) #
Oddly, [Wells and Hill] are in a weird way similar ballplayers.

Something else they have in common - would anyone be so reckless as to even guess what either will do in 2011? Hill's last three complete seasons look like the work of three completely different guys, and Wells' career path has generally imitated the trajectory of a yo-yo....
Magpie - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#223049) #
[Hill's] 2010 was more valuable than Wells' 2009.

Ya think? I think this year's Hill would kill for Wells' 2009 numbers. In fact, .260/.311./.400 - which all are agreed was simply an awful year for Wells - isn't all that far off Hill's career averages.
Magpie - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#223050) #
Are you referring to Shawn Hill and Drabek getting starts in Sept as the 10 yr minor vet and the kid from AA respectively?

Actually, I was remembering how during his first tour Gaston happily handed the closer's job to Darren Hall (the minor league vet) and Kelvim Escobar (the kid from AA.)
scottt - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#223051) #
Is something going on with Gregg? He was pulled before blowing the save on Friday and Frasor collected an easy save today. Gregg has 35 saves, a career mark for him, despite not starting the year as the closer.

Shawn Hill an E? He's almost thrown a quality start every time he's been out.   JPA an E?  Because he's not raking against Lester and Felix? 0 error, 0 passed ball, 2 assists. CERA 5.17 (Buck is 5.05 career) 



greenfrog - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#223053) #
"You can use these guys, but it sure helps if you've got somebody around who gets on base and maybe has decent wheels."

I would argue that in the AL East, most of your lineup needs to get on base. It's OK to have one or two guys who don't, like Wells and Hill, but when your team OBP is .312, you have a real problem. It is remarkable that the Jays have 241 HR but are eighth in the league in runs scored (with 709).
Magpie - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#223054) #
Is something going on with Gregg?

No. He didn't pitch today because he appeared in both the Friday and Saturday game, and Gaston has noticed (along with everyone else) that Gregg often struggles when pitching on consecutive days. Which I think also accounts for the quick hook (as soon as someone else was ready) in Saturday's game.

You're absolutely right about Shawn Hill - he's been just fine in his September work, worthy of at least a C. (I was probably assessing his chances of being useful going forward, which I assume are non-existent, but I'll be happy to be wrong.) But as for Arencibia - sorry, but no way. It doesn't matter who he was facing - 5 for 30 is still .167 and it still sucks. And John Buck's career catcher ERA, compiled mostly while he was working for the Kansas City Royals seems more than a little beside the point. It was quite a bit better with this bunch of pitchers. As you would expect it to be.
lexomatic - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#223055) #
Sorry i don't know how to make tables here -and frankly i spent 10 minutes not able to do a simple cut and paste. sometimes I hate this site. there needs to be a FAQ somewhere with really clear instructions on how to do things like make tables, link etc. because tons of stuff that works elsewhere does not work here and it's really frustrating.
per 162
A 24-32 B 23-31
G 163 163
PA 687 700
AB 634 642
R 89 94
H 168 179
2b 33 40
3b 5 4
HR 30 27
RBI 108 97
SB 20 11
CS 6 4
BB 38 49
SO 103 89
AVg 264 279
OBP 309 330
SLG 469 477
OPS 778 807
OPS+ 111 109

Wells' defense is marginally better.. more so early on, comparable later
You're forgetting offensive context, so Carter becomes proportionally fractionally more valuable over roughly the same age period.
Wells IS better by OPS + (but he's also not reached his decline phase, and has had more bad seasons prior to it)

I'm not saying Wells didn't have a good year, I'm saying in my mind he has not had a good ENOUGH year to warrant an A grade (and only Bautista has)
Wells and Carter, are comparable over the length of their careers.
Magpie - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#223056) #
OK, senility is kicking in. Gregg got the save on Thursday and the hook on Friday. It's two days off for him.

Anyway - Gaston said regarding today's game that there's never been any bad blood between the Jays and Orioles. Gaston wasn't in the dugout back in 2005. Remember Daniel Cabrera throwing a 95 mph fastball at Eric Hinske's head? John Gibbons called it "gutless." Cabrera's own manager and catcher (none other than Sal Fasano!) were appalled.
Magpie - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#223057) #
If you want to get numbers to line up, put it inside the "pre" and the "/pre" tags. Using the HTML brackets rather than quote marks, of course. Whatever is inside the tags should appear as you see it.

Anyway, I didn't give Wells a A. I gave him an A minus. So there! Anyway, he is tenth in the league in slugging percentage, I think you have to respect that. He did his job this year.
Magpie - Sunday, September 26 2010 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#223058) #
I would argue that in the AL East, most of your lineup needs to get on base. It's OK to have one or two guys who don't, like Wells and Hill, but when your team OBP is .312, you have a real problem

No argument there, but identify the right culprits. The league OBP is .328, and the guys who are mostly responsible for dragging down the Jays' figure to .311 are Hill and Lind, with help from Snider, Buck, and Encarnacion. Wells is one of a small group on this team who are slightly better than the league average - Wells, Overbay, Escobar, Lewis. The only guy actually good at getting on base is Jose...
TamRa - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 12:06 AM EDT (#223059) #
Wells really is Joe Carter 2.0 (without the SB)

consider, here's Joe Carter  (162 game average) through age 29:
(3545 PA)

.268 - .307 - .468 - .776
32 doubles, 3 triples, 29 homers, 100 RBI, 24 SB, 110 OPS+
-----------
Here's Wells through 29:
(3525 PA)

.288 - .336 - .492 - .828
40 doubles, 4 triples, 28 homers ,99 RBI , 11 SB, 112 OPS+
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's Carter at 30:

.232 - .290 - .391 - .681
27 - 1 - 24 - 115 - 22 (85 OPS+)

And Wells at 30:

.260 - .311 - .400 - .711
37 - 3 - 15 - 66 - 17 (86 OPS+)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Carter 31-34:
(2541 PA)

.265 - .317 - .502 - .819
36 - 5 - 36 - 125 - 15 (117)

and at 31:
.273 - .330 - .503 - .833
42 - 3 - 33 - 108 - 20 (124)

Wells at 31:
.270 - .329 - .513 - .842
41 - 3 - 30 - 83 - 5 (126)

It's positively eerie

And if the pattern holds, wells will remain productive through the remainder of his contract, then suck afterwards.



Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 12:26 AM EDT (#223060) #
Wells really is Joe Carter 2.0

I actually wrote out the Wells-Carter comparison more than five years ago, at which time I opined that while they were fundamentally very similar hitters, Wells was just a little better - neither guy walks a lot, but Wells walks a little more. Strikes out a little less. His batting averages are a little better. And he was two years younger than the guy he was being compared to (I was reviewing their first four seasons, which was all we had for Wells at that time.)

All of that is still true - but it's also clear by now that Carter proved to be both more consistent at his level and more durable (or maybe just luckier, who knows.)
TamRa - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 12:38 AM EDT (#223061) #
On the mound, he's not particularly efficient, so he's always going to need more help from his bullpen than Romero.

You want to define what you mean by "efficent", cause i don't see what you are seeing.

some stats, Marcum on top, Romero on the bottom, including today's start:

ERA - WHIP - IP/S - H/9 - BB/9 - K/9 - HBP - WP
3.63 - 1.17 - 6.27 - 8.4 - 2.05 - 7.69 - 5 - 3
3.79 - 1.31 - 6.52 - 8.2 - 3.65 - 7.53 - 8 - 17

I'm sure somewhere there's a stat for pitches per IP, but on Batters faced per IP, that's 4.11 for Marcum and 4.22 for Romero.

so how, specifically, was Romero more efficent?

Not that I'm disrespecting Rick-Ro...but Marcum pitched every bit as well and deserves the same grade, IMO.

Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 12:59 AM EDT (#223063) #
What I was thinking was that Marcum needed to use more pitches  to get through his innings than Romero, which allowed Ricky to go deeper into the game. But it's not nearly as much of an issue as it was earlier in the season, and I probably need to update my thinking on that score. As it stands now, Romero averages 15.5 pitches per inning, and Marcum's now at 15.7 - and indeed the only difference between them this year is that Romero's been able to pitch a few more innings.

Completely unrelated - here's how Mariano Rivera has fared since his 2 inning outing in Texas on the 10th of this month:

G   GF    IP    H   R  ER  BB  SO  HR  HBP    ERA   BF   BAVG   OBP   SLG    OPS  
6    4    5.2   9   6   6   2   1   1    2    9.53  29   .360   .448  .560  1.008  
Six save opportunities and three Blown Saves. Yes, it's a small sample size. But he is 40, and it is a long season...
Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 01:30 AM EDT (#223064) #
And hey - when I put most of this together, Romero and Marcum had the same ERA, but Ricky had thrown 20 more innings. I didn't know Marcum was going to throw 7 IP with 0 earned runs today (he says desperately.)

They're an interesting pair, having arrived at the same general level of goodness in somewhat different ways. Romero is a little more likely to give you an outstanding game (6 Game Scores better than 70, Marcum has 3), but he's also a little more likely to serve up a turkey (6 Game Scores below 40, Marcum has 4). Romero allows quite a few more batters to reach base, mainly because he walks almost twice as many guys as Marcum - he gets away with it because he does a much better job at keeping the ball in the yard (just 14 HR in more than 200 IP). They both do an excellent job at eliminating the running game (Marcum is very good and Romero is even better) and fielding their position (Romero is very good and Marcum is even better.)
brent - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 02:13 AM EDT (#223065) #
I'm confused why Wells is considered the smartest player since Alomar when Bautista looks like a genius out there on the base paths. If anything, Wells SB totals are usually quite disappointing to me, I M O (Magpie seems to have gotten grumpier this year).
China fan - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 04:45 AM EDT (#223066) #

....Wells' career path has generally imitated the trajectory of a yo-yo....

Yes, that's largely true, but here's a more optimistic way of looking at it:  over the past 8 seasons, he's only had 2 seasons that were inadequate for a centre fielder.  And another way of looking at it:  2 of his past 3 seasons (2008 and 2010) have been excellent for a centre-fielder.  For those reasons, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that he'll probably have another good season in 2011.  Of course he'll be 32 and entering the traditional decline years, but I suspect he'll be good for another couple years at least.

For a rebuilding year, the Jays have certainly exceeded expectations, and not just in terms of their W-L record.  Think of what they've accomplished:  the starting rotation for 2011 and 2012 is now identified and filled with young improving pitchers;  there's enough pitching deptch to replace any injured pitchers and to stock the bullpen; the minor-leage system has a several excellent prospects at key positions (catcher, shortstop, centre field); the Jays have the top power-hitting lineup in the majors (as measured by HRs); the utility and bench players have improved; the heart of the lineup (the 2-3-4 hitters) is strong and stable; and the question marks have been narrowed to a small handful that Anthopolous can focus on with laser-like precision.

For 2011, here are the main question marks:  3B -- keep Encarnacion or not?  1B -- keep Overbay or not?  2B and DH -- will Hill and Lind return to peak form, since there is nobody available to replace them? Catcher -- keep Buck or go with Arencibia?  LF -- will Snider make the breakthrough that we've long expected?  Bullpen -- who will be the closer?    (Some of these questions are rather unpleasant, but that's because of a lack of hitting prospects in the upper minors -- which is something else that Anthopolous will need to fix soon.)

To reach contender status by 2012:  the pitching is on track, but the Jays will need to find elite players for two or three more positions in the lineup -- ideally at 3B and 1B.  This is where free agency might have to be the solution.

China fan - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 05:06 AM EDT (#223067) #

....Magpie seems to have gotten grumpier this year.....

Not sure where this is coming from.  Magpie's report card, as usual, was laudably fair and balanced (and not in the Fox News sense of those words).  He managed to avoid the groupthink (or mob-think) assumptions of the conventional wisdom crowd and looked at each player fairly.

Now, perhaps for a future thread, here's a provocative idea that could spark a lot of heated opinions among Bauxites.  In a column in the Toronto Star on Friday that nobody seems to have noticed or commented upon, Dave Perkins argues that Cito Gaston is under-appreciated and will "amost inevitably" be summoned to Cooperstown by the veterans committee at some point.  Perkins makes a lot of interesting points in his column as he challenges the conventional wisdom about "our Cito" (as his critics patronizingly call him).  I'd be interested in hearing reaction to it:

http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/mlb/bluejays/citogaston/article/866139--perkins-cito-gaston-s-career-worthy-of-cooperstown

China fan - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 05:38 AM EDT (#223068) #

.....here are the WAR numbers from FanGraphs....

Just to add one name to Chuck's useful list above:  Escobar has a WAR of 2.4 this season, despite his horrible slump at the beginning of the year.  That gives him the 3rd-highest WAR of any position player in the Jays lineup. And, as Magpie noted, there are reasons to think that he could be coached to some further improvements.

Dave Till - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 07:29 AM EDT (#223069) #
Now, perhaps for a future thread, here's a provocative idea that could spark a lot of heated opinions among Bauxites.  In a column in the Toronto Star on Friday that nobody seems to have noticed or commented upon, Dave Perkins argues that Cito Gaston is under-appreciated and will "amost inevitably" be summoned to Cooperstown by the veterans committee at some point.

I'm a huge Cito fan, but I don't think that he is Cooperstown-worthy (unless being the first African-American manager to win a World Series counts enough). His ability to handle players is exceptional, but his in-game strategizing is not. It's good enough, but it's not enough to rank him among the very best managers of all time. This is not a knock: there are lots and lots of good players and good managers who don't qualify for the Hall of Fame but did lots and lots to help their teams win. Cito's among that group.

But it is worth remembering that the Jays have been to the post-season five times in their history. Cito managed four of those teams, and was the hitting coach for the fifth.

Another way to look at Cito's performance as manager is to compare him with Jimy Williams. Jimy had equivalent talent to work with, but lacked the ability to get the best out of some of his players (hello there, Mr. Bell), and had trouble dealing with the pressure of a tight pennant race (hello there, 1987). And yet, Jimy was given three shots at managing a major league team, whereas Cito - with a proven track record of success - was not. Joe Morgan, in his book, stated that it was a travesty of justice that Cito wasn't given another job somewhere - and I would have to agree.
scottt - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 08:09 AM EDT (#223070) #
How about Drabek? 0-2  4.91 ERA against 2 weak lineups. E or F?
christaylor - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 08:12 AM EDT (#223071) #
I was thinking the opposite -- Drabek's D is unfair. What Drabek has done during his September call-up is largely irrelevant. He's a kid a who is just auditing the class to get a jump on the material for next year.
Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 08:13 AM EDT (#223072) #
Magpie seems to have gotten grumpier this year

It's possible. I can't remember the last Jays team that exceeded expectations - 2003? 1983? And yet the complaining has gone through the roof. And maybe some of us do get grumpy as we get... less young.
Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 08:23 AM EDT (#223073) #
I'm a big Dave Perkins fan, but I agree with Dave Till - Cooperstown won't be calling. Perkins mentions the four other men who won two titles - Carrigan, Murtaugh, Kelly, and Houk. Gaston will be the fifth.

Bill Carrigan (Liam's great-great uncle!) is probably the closest comparison. Like Gaston, he had a mostly undistinguished 10 year career as a player... he managed the Red Sox to two championships in his first tour... he came back for a second tour that was not nearly so successful.
Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#223074) #
Perhaps a word of explanation about the grades is in order. First of all, it's all Entirely Subjective and mostly pulled straight out of my nether orifice. But to a large degree they're being graded as to how they carried out their role on the team. John McDonald (given a B) was not more useful, or better, or more productive than Lyle Overbay (given a C+). But one guy is a utility infielder and one guy is a first baseman.

As for Drabek - he wasn't great, but he didn't look overmatched, he passed the audition, we'll give him a pass.
John Northey - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#223075) #
Under 1000 wins as a manager makes it almost impossible to see Cito making it into the HOF. The 2 titles are great, but the fact no other team would hire him for a decade kills it.

On the other hand, if Pinella can be viewed as a serious candidate when he was not able to get to the World Series with incredible teams (those Seattle teams with Randy Johnson, Griffey Jr, A-Rod, E Martinez, and other quality guys like Jamie Moyer and Jay Buhner) one has to wonder. Heck, two years he was sub-500 with that talent. Never did understand the man-love Pinella got from the media.
Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#223076) #
Well, Piniella (like Earl Weaver and Casey Stengel before him, and Tony LaRussa today) put a lot of effort into wooing the media. It never hurts.

Piniella is 14th on the Wins list for managers. Everyone ahead of him is in the Hall already except: a) the three guys still working (LaRussa, Cox, Torre) and b) Gene Mauch, who actually had a losing record as a manager. Piniella's managed more wins than Tommy Lasorda, Earl Weaver, and Dick Williams who are all in the Hall as managers. I don't know if Piniella belongs because I don't know what the standards are, but he certainly has to be in the discussion. Hell, Weaver had a bunch of powerhouse teams and he only has one title to show for it.
Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#223078) #
The HoF manager with the fewest wins (among the guys who are in the Hall as managers) is Billy Southworth. He who was only inducted two years ago, which was 40 years too late for Southworth himself to enjoy it. Like Gaston, Southworth had 4 first place finishes and 2 WS titles in a fairly short career. He finished up with 1044 wins (Gaston will end up with about 890.)

Southworth, however, has the second best winning percentage of any 20th century manager - .597. Only Joe McCarthy himself can top that.
Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#223079) #
You've got me interested in handicapping the HoF prospects for other active managers!

Obviously LaRussa, Cox, and Torre are going in.

Piniella will be a strong candidate - 14th on the Wins list, a WS title (no manager has made the Hall without one)...

Jim Leyland has a title, and he's now 19th on the Wins list. But he's also under. 500 lifetime.

If Dusty Baker - don't laugh - manages to win a WS (this could be the year!), he automatically moves into contention. My mind boggles, too. But he's already got 1400 wins, a career winning record, and he's still young enough to add on to it.

Bruce Bochy is Leyland without the ring. A long and sometimes impressive career, but he's under .500...

Mike Scoscia is going to look very good down the road. He's already got his WS title, he has a great reputation, and he's got a .549 winning percentage...

Terry Francona has two titles, and the cachet of winning them in Boston. His Philly tenure drags down his record and while he's just 51 years old I'm not sure he's going to be doing this for the next fifteen years. He's had some very serious health issues - I just hope he's still walking amongst for the next fifteen years and many more, never mind running a baseball team. But one more title and he's a lock.

Buck Showalter and Gaston are next on the active list - they have very similar records to date. Gaston has two titles and Showalter has none, but Gaston's retiring. Showalter is 54 years old, and will be building his resume for some time to come...

Ron Gardenhire, to my mind, may be the most effective manager in the game today. He'll be 53 next month, so he's got lots of time. He's got a .552 winning percentage, which speaks for itself. But he needs to win a championship.

Charlie Manuel has won a title, and his teams have also played .552 ball. But he got started too late - he's 66 years old and he has just 760 wins. But if wins two more titles in the next three or four years - which is certainly not impossible - he's in. Everyone who managed 3 WS winners is in the Hall, except Joe Torre.

As for the rest of the field... Jim Tracy and Jerry Manuel have the most wins - they've each cleared 700, with a career winning record. But neither has had any success in the post-season... Ken Macha has a .540 winning percentage, but no post-season success and at age 60 (in a couple of days) he has just six seasons in the books.... Joe Maddon just crawled above .500 this last week; he's 56 years old with 428 wins... Ron Washington and Bud Black were both past 50 before they got started; they'll have to be very, very successful to make up for that....

And Ozzie Guillen is only 46 years old. And Joe Girardi is 10 months younger than Ozzie. They've each got one title already, and loads of time to build on it....
Mick Doherty - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#223080) #

Let's not forrget that Piniella's title came with the 1990 Reds .... arguably the worst World Series title team of our collective lifetimes, right there with the 1988 Dodgers. The Reds of 1990 -- and I was in Ohio at the time and addicted to listening to Marty Brennamen and Joe Nuxhall call win after win -- weren't very good in 1989 or 1991, but in 1990 ... is that a plus or a minus for Lou?

Brennamen:
And the ball is hit in the air, fout off first ... Benzinger backing and calling ... and the 1990 World Championship belongs to the Cinicinnati Reds!

(I listened to that a few times 20 years ago ...)

Mike Green - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#223082) #
I don't know exactly what the standards for Hall of Fame managers ought to be, but I do believe that managers are no more important than everyday players.  Sparky Anderson meant much less to the Big Red Machine than Joe Morgan or Johnny Bench.  Cito Gaston meant less to the 92-93 Jays than Roberto Alomar or John Olerud.  With that in mind, how many multi-season managers should be in "serious Hall of Fame contention"?  It seems pretty clear to me that the rate of Hall of Fame contenders among managers should be no higher than that among regular everyday players, or 10-20 per cent. 

My own view is that a pitcher like Tommy John or Jim Kaat, each of whom pitched very well for 15 years or more, did more to help his team win than 98% of managers.

bpoz - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#223089) #
Thanks Magpie... I give you an A for this article because in under 24 hours you have got 40+ comments. A+ if the comments go over 100.

I agree with all your evaluations. The interesting one to me is the comparable evaluations of our big 4 SPs. IMO since I think everyone has their favorite Starter from these 4, you are in a no win position. Imagine if the Jays had made the playoffs and you had to choose the Starter for game 1,2,3,4. However you or the actual manager chose, there would be, I think, disagreements. Cecil looks like he may win the most games this year so some people may think he should be the game 1 starter. I hope Marcum,Romero and Cecil all win their remaining game. But its possible only Cecil wins, then he has 15 wins. Should he get the opening day assignment for 2011?
By the way if we ever have a thread in the off season on who is each ones favorite or best SP, mine is Cecil and I would give my opinion why in that thread.
China fan - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#223093) #

.....Well, Piniella (like Earl Weaver and Casey Stengel before him, and Tony LaRussa today) put a lot of effort into wooing the media. It never hurts....

This raises the question of whether the next manager should have greater media skills than Gaston.  In my view, Gaston tends to alienate some Jays fans because he can be rather curt and uncommunicative, making throwaway comments and not explaining them (and not being keen to debate Mike Wilner when he demands answers....).  One proposal, recently discussed by Jeff Blair and apparently being considered by Anthopolous, would require all of the candidates for the 2011 manager's job to meet the Toronto media after their job interviews.  The timing of their formal interview with Anthopolous would be publicly known, and the media would be waiting to talk to the candidate after the job interview.  Then the candidate's skills in dealing with the media would become one of elements that Anthopolous would evaluate before making his final decision.  Not a bad idea -- as long as it doesn't tilt the contest in favor of someone who is amiable and talkative at the expense of other qualities.  (There have been one or two examples of this in the Jays managerial ranks over the past few years....)

Dave Rutt - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#223094) #
Hey lexomatic, this site takes raw table data and spits out the formatted HTML code (it allows you to fiddle with the formatting too).
Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#223095) #
It's all an Impenetrable Mist. Utterly impenetrable, and as always I recommend that we have a little Respect for the Fog, the great cloud of Unknowing. For one thing, a great deal of what managers do is Completely Hidden and Impossible to Measure. How much, if anything at all, did Cito Gaston have to do with Jose Bautista's breakout season? How could we possibly know?

If for no other reason than there is no alternate timeline available to us where we can discover what Bautista would have done if someone else was running the team. But that's reason enough...

That pesky lack of an alternate timeline really messes up our attempts to understand things in general, not just baseball. I've noticed that quite often....
Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#223096) #
I give you an A for this article because in under 24 hours you have got 40+ comments.

Yeah, but almost half of them are from me. That's cheating, surely?
Mick Doherty - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#223099) #
Ooh, Mags, I was gonna call you on your math skills ... not a good idea, given my own complete lack of mumercial ability -- but 20/27 reall IS almost half! I guess it just shows how dedicated you are to your own work, hey? This post brought to you by the letters "P-O-S-i-T-I-V-E S-P-I-N." ;-)
Mike Green - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#223100) #
I'll grant you, Magpie, that my own view of the importance of managers vis a vis players is a belief rather than something that can be demonstrated.  I'll tell you the root of my belief.

Let us imagine the worst manager of the last 50 years. Call him Jimy Williams. And then give him in 1987 the best team in baseball.  How many games do you think that the team will win?  And how important would other factors, such as injuries to key players, be? The associated statistic (Wins Above Replacement Manager)  even has a "cool" acronym.

Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#223102) #
Hey, I saw Bob Brenly manage a World Series winner. You're preaching to the choir here...

On the other hand... if Billy Martin could be resurrected, I firmly believe the 2011 Jays would be a contender. Them and about a dozen other teams no one takes seriously. You'd have to fire his drunken ass a year later, of course.
Alex Obal - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#223103) #
Well, aside from Bautista, the most impressive offensive breakthroughs under Gaston (and Murphy, and company) came from Buck and Gonzalez, two guys who also like to pull the ball with authority. Maybe Wells - same idea. Then you hear John McDonald talk about how nobody's ever taught him to hit that way. And then you see all-fields-power guy Lind and line-drive hitter Hill scuffle all year, and you go, hmm. I do think Bautista was more likely to succeed here than anywhere else. And I don't think it hurt that he got to play everyday, either.

Gaston is my AL Manager of the Year. I think B+s for him and Anthopoulos are a bit conservative, myself. The future looked dire last fall.

Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#223104) #
Gaston is my AL Manager of the Year.

Oh, it has to be Gardenhire. Doesn't it? Shouldn't there be an investigation if it isn't?
Alex Obal - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#223107) #
He's defensible. But there are four teams in the AL with winning records against the AL East. One of them is the Toronto Blue Jays. That's a strong enough case on its own, even before you bring up Bautista and the pitchers.
ayjackson - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#223108) #
Maybe Lind's performance last year was attributable to Tennace's coachings.  Pull-hitter philosophy does not seem to agree with him.  As for Hill, I'd prefer that line-drive hitter for average he appeared to be in his first few seasons.  But he has had some success with the pull-hitter model.
Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#223109) #
I don't know about Buck and Gonzalez. Buck has been improving in small increments year by year by. If we regard 2007 as a blip, an unaccountable off-year (he's a catcher, maybe he was hurting) his yearly OPS+ reads 79, 79, 80, 92, 103, and 109. And I think Gonzalez just got hot for a month.

But on the other hand - Marco Scutaro (like Bautista, Gaston and the staff made some mechanical adjustments to his swing) is a completely different type of offensive player. And Adam Lind in 2008 and 2009 - you will recall that Lind was visiting with Gaston before every at bat back in 2008. Gaston was asked about doing that again this year, and he actually said Lind is going to have to figure some of this stuff out for himself because he, Cito, wasn't going to be around forever.

Yes, he really said that.
Mike Green - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#223110) #
if Billy Martin could be resurrected, I firmly believe the 2011 Jays would be a contender

Maybe.  But there's also a good chance that two of the starters would be visiting the surgeon shortly thereafter. And it wouldn't surprise me at all if the 2011 Jays are a contender with an undead manager.
Alex Obal - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#223111) #
What I was trying to say is that there's circumstantial evidence Gaston's teachings make someone like Bautista particularly likely to go off. Buck and Gonzalez both saw their HRs and isolated power go through the roof early this year. They've cooled off, possibly a result of their scouting reports being updated from 'out' to 'out who will hit meatballs 450 feet given the opportunity.' But I don't think it's a coincidence they forced that adjustment once they got to Toronto.
Kasi - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#223114) #
The two part series on the pitchers was interesting for what they said about the hitting philosophy that Cito is using. They were pretty much outright critical of the swing for the fences, and weren't happy with the all or nothing approach it brings. They want OBP, they want steals and a bit of small ball. What they probably really want is no more 2 minute innings where all 3 guys pop out in 5 total pitches, giving them no time to recuperate between innings.
Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#223115) #
Pull-hitter philosophy does not seem to agree with [Lind].

But that is most definitely not Gaston's philosophy of hitting so it doesn't much matter. Some of Gaston's most spectacular success stories have been guys who were not pull hitters at all - Roberto Alomar and Fred McGriff spring instantly to mind. Rance Mulliniks and Tony Fernandez. Jesse Barfield, even. (George Bell, on the other hand, was a dead pull hitter - he was Jose Bautista with another 40 points of BAVG but half the walks.)

More than anything else, more than anything mechanical, Gaston has always emphasized going up to the plate with an idea. And that idea has always been - What does this guy throw and which of his pitches do you want to hit? And once you've decided, look for that pitch and knock the crap out of it when you get it. I think Lind started guessing up there, kept guessing wrong, and it took him a long time to get his mind right...

Guess-type hitting really does works for some guys. Lind probably isn't one of them.
Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#223116) #
They want OBP, they want steals and a bit of small ball.

They want a different group of hitters, then. Whitey Herzog couldn't get that from this bunch.
Mick Doherty - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#223117) #
AL Manager of the year -- probably Gardy, yes. Cito will not get much love from voters because he's in the wrong division. Won't SOME support go to the guy who overcame a drug-scandal-induced resignation offer to lead his team to its first postseason berth in 11 years get some love? Or have we decided to "Wash" our hands of the man?
Mick Doherty - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#223118) #

an undead manager.

TO's gonna hire a zombie???

Alex Obal - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#223119) #
There is a difference between having an idea and guessing, though, right? It's one thing to think "There's a good chance this guy is going to sneak a high fastball by me early in the count. If he does, I will be ready. I will spit on anything else." It's another to think "I expect a belt-high fastball this at-bat, so I am going to commit and swing as hard as I can every time."
Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#223120) #
True guess hitters - Lou Piniella (as a player) is the one I always remember - are guessing along from pitch to pitch. If he's guessing fastball, he's not waiting to see the spinning red dot that says "slider!" He's already committed.

Guessing "fastball" on every pitch is a pretty decent strategy, actually. Even if you're fooled by something off-speed, there's often enough of a micro-second available to adjust. (but man, are you helpless against a hard slider!)

And then there was Henry Aaron who, uniquely as far as I'm aware, went to every at bat looking for the breaking ball. He would adjust to the fastball, which is simply incredible. "None of them could throw it by me anyway" he once explained.
Thomas - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#223121) #
Cito will not get much love from voters because he's in the wrong division.

Well, he'll finish third or, more likely, fourth, I think. Girardi's not impressing anyone and I think people recognize the talent Tampa has (although I wouldn't be surprised in Maddon winds up in third). I do think Gardenhire will get it and Washington will follow in second place.

My vote? I'm with Alex. I'd pick Cito, followed by Gardenhire.

Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#223122) #
And yeah - whenever you see a hitter take a fastball right down Broadway for strike three - you know beyond a shadow of a doubt that he was guessing breaking ball. And he guessed wrong.
lexomatic - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#223123) #
thanks dave
Jonny German - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#223124) #
This raises the question of whether the next manager should have greater media skills than Gaston
 
I like it when players wear the old school high socks. I am glad GMs do not evaluate free agents on high-sockness.
Alex Obal - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#223125) #
Cito will not get much love from voters because he's in the wrong division.

But Cito ought to get considerable love from voters because he's in the wrong division! And especially he should get it from the people who follow the wrong division for a living.

TamRa - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#223127) #
Buck and Gonzalez both saw their HRs and isolated power go through the roof early this year. They've cooled off, possibly a result of their scouting reports being updated from 'out' to 'out who will hit meatballs 450 feet given the opportunity.' But I don't think it's a coincidence they forced that adjustment once they got to Toronto.

Regarding Buck, this isn't really true.

In 2010, Buck hit 13 of his 18 homers n the first three months of the season

In 2007, Buck hit 14 of his 18 homers before July 1.

not to say Cito might not have helped, but Buck has definately had this season before.
Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#223128) #
That's the type of thing you'd expect to see from a catcher. Generally, by the All-Star Break their bodies have become one gigantic bruise.
Magpie - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#223129) #
the candidate's skills in dealing with the media would become one of elements that Anthopolous would evaluate before making his final decision.

I'm pretty sure Dick Williams wasn't interested in the job anyway. Now he knows he can stay home!
Mike Green - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#223131) #
TO's gonna hire a zombie???

Must resist temptation to talk politics...will fading....Rrroobbb...

As for Manager of the Year, I don't know.  Gardenhire has done a good job, but the key moves were made by the GM in the off-season, particularly the acquisitions of Thome and Hudson.  Maddon has done a nice job with a talented team, particularly on the tactical side.  Gaston has presided over unexpected development of a number of players and deserves significant credit for that. 
Jonny German - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#223132) #
They want OBP, they want steals and a bit of small ball.

They want a different group of hitters, then. Whitey Herzog couldn't get that from this bunch.
 
Maybe not the steals & small ball, but the lack of OBP on this team is odd. Running through the guys that may get significant playing time in 2011:
 
Buck: Okay, he's bad at OBP. And Arencibia won't likely be much better.
 
Overbay: Career .359 including .372 in 500 PA last year, .332 this year.
 
Hill: Career .325 and his .272 this year is the only season he's been under that mark.
 
Escobar: .365 career, .343 for his 240 Toronto PA. Not part of the problem.
 
Encarnacion: .335 career. Did he hit 8th a lot in the NL? His walk rate took a hit as soon as he came to Toronto.
 
Snider: .331 in his first 356 major league PA, .376 for his minor league career (and he's never been old for his level).
 
Wells: .329 this year, .329 career. Mr. Consistency!
 
Bautista: Review historical data at your own risk.
 
Lind: Career .323 seems like a reasonable guess at his OBPility. Abnormally high last year (.370) and abnormally low this year (.288).
 
Okay, not a fantastic bunch of on-basers.... but there are 2 plus Jo-Bau who you would have thought would be quite good this year, another 5 who are generally league average, and just 1 who is a well established non base-runner.
 
This team being so bad at getting on base is as strange as the multitude of home runs.
Dewey - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#223133) #
Fascinating piece, Magpie.  You are a beacon of good sense in a general miasma of  ill-informed opinion and self-regard.  And to think you’re still a youngster, too.
Mike Green - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#223134) #
This team being so bad at getting on base is as strange as the multitude of home runs.

There may, or may not, be a correlation between these two things.  The very approach that leads to the home runs may have also led to the highest FB rate, the highest IF/FB rate, the lowest LD rate and the lowest BABIP in the AL. 
DiscoDave - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#223135) #
And Adam Lind in 2008 and 2009 - you will recall that Lind was visiting with Gaston before every at bat back in 2008. Gaston was asked about doing that again this year, and he actually said Lind is going to have to figure some of this stuff out for himself because he, Cito, wasn't going to be around forever. Yes, he really said that.

I remember reading an old 1980 season preview that had a similar story with George Brett early in his career. His hitting coach, Ralph Houk (don't quote me), lead to early success but retired/was fired and Brett struggled. Brett went back to him on his own the next season before "getting it" on his own.
ayjackson - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#223136) #

And then there was Henry Aaron who, uniquely as far as I'm aware, went to every at bat looking for the breaking ball. He would adjust to the fastball, which is simply incredible. "None of them could throw it by me anyway" he once explained.

Mel Queen insists he struck him out three times in a game on nothing but inside fastballs.

TamRa - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#223139) #
RE: MOY

I'm not on a machine where I can look up the stats right now, but off the cuff, I'm going to argue that the Rays are NOT, on paper, as talented as their record and I think Maddon has them playing above their talent level by several games (very good pitching but just a league average offense - pretty much exactly like the '08 Jays that won 86 games...on the other hand that team underpreformed their pythag so...)

I could see a good case for Maddon or Gardy, and a reasonable one for Washington. Frankly, I'd buy the  arguent for Francona overcoming the injuries before I got to Cito. If I had to cast a ballot, Cito would finish fifth.


Kasi - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#223140) #
Cito should get an honorary F for his use of Tallet. God knows what incriminating photos Tallet has on him for him to keep being trotted out like he has been.
Kasi - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#223141) #
And unless Tallet can bring his HR rate down to respectable levels, he is no use. Not even as a lefty specialist. The guy is having a historically awful year. You can't compare him to Downs, who is a solid guy capable of getting both lefties and righties out. Tallet also has the issue of way too many free passes.
Dewey - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#223142) #
Just noticed.  Doc got his 21st win tonight with a two-hit shutout.  Good for Doc.
Chuck - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#223143) #

I'm going to argue that the Rays are NOT, on paper, as talented as their record and I think Maddon has them playing above their talent level by several games

The Rays are tied with the Red Sox for second best offense in the AL, and that's while playing home games in a less favourable hitting environment. Their +153 run differential is the second best in baseball. They are full value for their W-L record.

Thomas - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#223144) #
I haven't read much of Richard Griffin this year, but what I had read seemed more reasonable than most of his columns from the previous couple of years. However, in his latest, he throws this out,

"For instance, who ever suggested Jarrett Hoffpauir with his glitzy Vegas stats could take over every day at third base? Who believed that lefty Dana Eveland could last more than a couple of months in a competitive rotation?"

I don't think anybody in the Blue Jays office suggested either thing. Hoffpauir was a Triple-A depth signing who came up for two weeks to fill in when Encarnacion was injured. I've never heard anyone refer to him as anything approaching a regular player. And, Eveland was a placeholder at the beginning of the season who was jettisoned fairly quickly when he began to struggle. He didn't last more than a month and a half in a competitive rotation.

I'm picking on an easy target, but those comments reminded me of many of his unfounded criticisms of JP and seemed completely unnecessary in an otherwise cromulent article on Drabek's September and future outlook.

Alex Obal - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#223145) #
For the first four innings tonight, it looked like Marc Rzepczynski was throwing 118 mph. Unfair deception. Looked like 2009 Scrabble.
TamRa - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 10:58 PM EDT (#223146) #
The Rays are tied with the Red Sox for second best offense in the AL, and that's while playing home games in a less favourable hitting environment. Their +153 run differential is the second best in baseball. They are full value for their W-L record.

Well, I was looking at OPS instead of runs...and I acknowledge the concept that runs are the ultimate measure of offense, but my counter is that if you have that many runs on a middling OPS then maybe you are getting lucky/over-achiving.

And of course, when you have really great pitching, your run differential will tend to be high if you have any decent offense.


Kasi - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#223147) #
Will is right. The Rays had two factors this year that helped them that they can't count on to always repeat.

1) Their early season luck with men on. Their huge run to start the year was built on an abnormally high BA with men in scoring position. As in having an OPS over 100 points higher. This didn't last and when they struggled midseason that was the culprit.

2) Good luck with their pitchers in stranding men. Toronto's pitchers actually have better peripheral stats (FIP. xFIP) but due to some luck Tampa had a better ERA. They can't count on that to hold true.

TamRa - Monday, September 27 2010 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#223148) #
Zep really did a lot to redeem his shakey season tonight. If he's found the magic of 2009 and can repeat it in the spring, the 5th starter contest is gonna be brutal.


Kasi - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 12:40 AM EDT (#223149) #
One more thing on Tallet. I wouldn't trust him as a guy who can get lefties out. Sure this year he is good against them, but 2007-2009 he was actually worse by about 100 points of OPS against lefties. He is just not a good pitcher. What he could do before this year was get righties out decently. Now he is being hammered by them. He should be non tendered this offseason.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 02:27 AM EDT (#223150) #
Mel Queen insists he struck him [Aaron] out three times in a game on nothing but inside fastballs.

Mel's memory - well, it was 43 years ago - plays him false. But just a little. He's probably remembering this game, which he lost 5-2 to Phil Niekro. But he fanned Aaron twice to end the inning, and seeing as how all Queen had was a fastball that's probably the pitch he did it with. The second time, there were runners on 2nd and 3rd, and Bob Uecker and Felipe Alou were the baserunners.

I know what you're thinking - Uecker got on base? Sure. With an RBI single, one of three hits he had that day. I would assume Mel has blotted from that his memory. Can't say I blame him..

Queen made what must have been one of the more unusual position switches in major league history. He made the 1966 Reds as a reserve outfielder, and two months into the season was batting a lusty .088. He doesn't play at all for six weeks - presumably he hurt something - and when he returns in mid July, he's pitching. Over the final two months, he made 7 appearances as a pitcher, played a couple of games in right field, and pinch hit - badly - quite a few times.  The next year, he's a full-time pitcher - he had never pitched even an inning in the minors at this point - and he went 14-8, 2.76.
Chuck - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 07:26 AM EDT (#223151) #
And of course, when you have really great pitching, your run differential will tend to be high if you have any decent offense.

Their offense is 0.61 runs better than league average. Their defense is 0.37 runs better than league average.
Matthew E - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#223152) #
For the first four innings tonight, it looked like Marc Rzepczynski was throwing 118 mph.

I was following the game on ESPN.com GameCast, and on there it looked like his only problem in the fifth inning - other than the home run, of course - was that the umpire was refusing to call anything a strike. Like, for the first three batters of the fifth, every pitch was either swung on or was in the strike zone but called a ball. Did it look different on TV?
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#223153) #
Anthopoulos had a good year, and a B+ may be on the stingy side.

It looks like I was entirely wrong about the Escobar-Gonzalez/Collins/Pastornicky trade, although that book is far from closed.  It certainly has not done wonders for the Braves so far. And I may be entirely wrong about the draft, as well.  We'll see.  What Anthopoulos has done is set the stage for the team to be contenders over the next 3-4 years if ownership is willing to open up the purse strings some.  That is no small feat, bearing in mind where the club was at the end of 2009.



Kasi - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#223154) #
Interesting note about the Astros I read. In order to increase Carlos Lee's trade value, they're going to move him to 1b to start next year. Which is going to majorly mess with Wallace's development, as he'll have nowhere to play in the majors or will have to return to AAA. I'm glad AA got rid of him when he did, since I think Wallace is a major bust.
AWeb - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#223155) #
The problem with opening the purse strings is the lack of premier talent available.
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2001/05/potential-free-agents-for-2011.html

Aside from possible upgrades at first base (Pena?), the Jays will need to sign a player like Beltre or Crawford to get a large improvement. With the Jays about to win 81-86 games (since 1998, the Jays are averaging 82 wins/year and haven't threatened the playoffs...I don't blame the division, it's just that a team averaging 82 wins for 13 years should max-out above 88 once in a while.), they once again seem to be in the position of having a lot of good players, with no obvious holes to fix with better outside options. Lind, Snider, and Hill could all be better next year, which seems to be the best bet the Jays can make on contention - it's not a stretch that those players could be worth 8-10 extra wins next year alone, if they suddenly learn how to hit again. And then everyone else stays about the same, and the Jays win 94 games. Alternatively, they sign a big bat for DH (Ortiz?) to replace Lind and hope he doesn't re-discover 2009 form.

Are there top-flight players signed to contracts that teams want to get out from under?
ramone - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#223157) #

Are there top-flight players signed to contracts that teams want to get out from under?

Beltran. MLBTradeRumors has stated a few times the Mets would like to explore moving him.

I`m not saying whether the Jays should do this but he fits the description of your question, he is going to make 18.5 million is a major injury risk and I`m not sure this is the type of player that AA wouild like to gamble on, especially with Vernon getting a nice pay increase next year.

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#223158) #

cromulent

Ooh, Thomas! Good word! I had to look that one up, myself, and now my vocab is One Word Larger. :-)

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#223159) #
We are bordering perilously close to 100 comments, which bpoz says makes this an A+ thread ... Maggsy, are you trembling with excitement and anticipation?
Matthew E - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#223161) #
I had to look that one up, myself, and now my vocab is One Word Larger.

So you've embiggened your vocabulary?
China fan - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#223162) #

.....I think Wallace is a major bust....

You're already prepared to reach this conclusion?  The guy has just turned 24 and has had only 145 major-league plate appearances.  Isn't it a bit early to declare him a "major bust"?  Normally, in the case of your favorite young Jays, you're keen to give them a much longer rope, or at least to blame their manager.

On a related subject:  I agree with Magpie's comment that Gaston, on balance, has been remarkably patient with Travis Snider over the course of the year, despite his poor numbers.  This used to be a controversial subject, but nobody in this thread has challenged Magpie on this, so perhaps the issue is losing some of its incendiary character.

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#223163) #
AWeb, I'd investigate (large) role players like Maicer Izturis and Victor Martinez, and probably bring back Overbay at a lower rate.  Your 2011 Blue Jays (if everything goes right):

C-  Arencibia or Buck
1B- Overbay
2B- Hill
SS- Escobar
3B- Izturis
RF- Bautista
CF- Wells
LF- Snider
DH- Lind

Bench- Martinez, Emaus, McDonald, Mastroianni

Lind is your 5th outfielder.  Martinez platoons with Overbay and catches 40 games or so.  Emaus platoons with Izturis.  Mastroianni is in the modest Reed Johnson role, and also pinch-runs regularly.  Obviously, I'd prefer if the club went with an 11 man staff and the bench was longer, but that realistically is not likely to happen.

If this team is to compete, it will be because the young pitchers take a modest step forward rather than a large step backward.  Both outcomes are possible, but their handling in 2010 increases the odds that the former will happen.



ayjackson - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#223165) #

Gaston's greatest virtue is his patience (except for relief pitchers not named Tallet).  I don't think anybody would contend he should be more patient. 

Certainly Snider has earned his spot in the lineup based on what he has achieved in the minors and his league average offense as a 21/22 year old in the majors.  Not to mention his defensive contribution.  This is my opinion and it is all I have to say on the matter.

Kasi - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#223169) #
Wallace has never hit well in the minors either. Snider put up numbers far better then Wallace ever did in the minors at a much younger age. Wallace's best was mid .800 OPS in a bandbox of a park in Vegas. Snider crushed AAA to a nearly 1.1 OPS. Snider has better walk rates, Snider can play defense, Snider has more power. Snider is a much better player in every respect than Wallace, and he is 2 years younger!

The Astros aren't apparently very impressed right now, because they are going to put Lee at 1B and probably send Wallace back for another full year at AAA. Do you think there is a reason that 4 teams picked up and traded Wallace in the space of a year? The guy despite Keith Law's claim to the contrary is not going to be anything other then a Lyle Overbay clone without the good glove. I do think there is a reason that 4 organizations jettisoned him in that short a space of time.

To talk about Snider and his numbers, I think many of us are pretty tired of the subject and lost a lot to complain about when Lewis' injuries brought Snider to being an every day player. But the fact is his numbers are good for this team. Bautista, Wells, Buck and Overbay are hitting better then him, but that's it. Snider has better numbers then everyone else on the team, and equivalent to Escobar. His peripherals are also outstanding. He has a huge line drive rate, his defensive metrics are good, his strikeout rate is way down. The only thing I wish was that his walk rate would be a bit higher, but 7% isn't bad. Just not as nice as the 10-11% he got in previous years. He's also been hitting much better since he got back to full time play. His power is a bit lacking, but I'm guessing his wrist is still holding him back a bit. He could be doing better, but I'm just thankful he's not the black hole in the lineup that Hill and EE have been as of late, and Lind, Overbay and Wells have all taken turns at so far this season.

Many of us actually look at the advanced metrics and they show many promising signs for Snider. We can see during games when Snider gets 2 outs on blistering liners hit right at defenders that he is getting things right, And when we see Hill jack up 2 flies into the infield we know there is a reason for his brutally low BABIP. All outs are not created equal. Snider has a 25.7% LD rate, and that is one big reason Snider supporters see a lot of success in his future.

China fan - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#223172) #
I never attempted to say that Wallace is as good as Snider.  Nothing in my comment suggested that Wallace and Snider are similar prospects.  My point was:  why have you concluded that Wallace is a bust, when he is barely 24 and has had only 145 plate appearances?
Kasi - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#223173) #
Hill in comparison has a 9.9% LD rate, and that is pretty much by far the lowest number in the majors for a regular player. Interesting that among regular players the Jays have the extreme on LD rates at both ends. Line drives are good, because they lead to hits far more then any other type of hit. Snider hits home runs because he is strong, not because he is swinging out of his seat like Hill. I think Snider will have several 50+ doubles season in him when he hits his prime.

Hill needs to get back to what got him to the majors, which was hitting line drives and getting lots of doubles. Up til this year he was about an 16-20% a year for LD rate. For some reason (probably trying too hard after last year) he's gone all uppercut on his swing to get more home runs, and it has hurt his numbers.

John Northey - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#223174) #
Beltre is an interesting one. Fangraphs has him at $28.5 million this year for value, vs $10-18 over the past 4 years.

His fielding is a positive, 10+ runs worth for 3 years running, 4 out of the last 5.

Signing him would steal him from the Red Sox, always a nice thing to do, but would give them our first round pick (unless the Jays fall to 16th overall which would be hard now as they are 4 games ahead of Oakland/Florida with 6 to go). If the Jays stay hot they could finish 11th overall (2 games back).

No question, Beltre is the ideal player for the Jays to sign if they want to sign someone as it covers 3B with a guy who is both a good hitter and a good fielder. Some risk as he has had some poor years with the bat (like last year). 3 years, $15 per would be good imo, any more and you'd be taking on too much risk probably.
Kasi - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#223175) #
Actually many people when we got Wallace mistakenly thought that he was Snider v 2.0.

Wallace is a bust because he doesn't play defense, only has one position, has marginal power/walk rates for that position, and has an extremely weak ceiling for a high drafted player. Add in there that the projections of a guy whose best minor league season was mid .800 OPS in Vegas (where the team OPS average is pretty similar to that) aren't very good. There is nothing about Wallace's numbers from his minor/major league performance that show him capable of being a good major league player other then wishful thinking over his draft status.

China fan - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#223176) #

.....I do think there is a reason that 4 organizations jettisoned him....

Well, that's not actually accurate.  First of all, it was only 3 organizations that traded him, not 4.   The Cardinals traded him (with 2 others) for Matt Holliday, so that's not exactly dumping the guy -- it speaks to how highly he was valued at that point.  A few months later, Anthopolous targeted him specifically, in exchange for Michael Taylor, so that's not a jettisoning, that's a targeted acquisition.  Anthopolous has also stated that the Jays were very reluctant to trade Wallace this year and traded him only because it was the only way to acquire Gose.  He said the Astros would accept no other prospect for Gose.  So, it's not accurate to say that Wallace was "jettisoned" -- he was specifically sought-after by three teams.

China fan - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#223177) #

....Wallace is a bust because he doesn't play defense, only has one position (etc, etc)....

So, you're expressing an OPINION that, in your view, he's not likely to become very good. That's your projection, based on your opinion of his minor-league numbers.  You're entitled to your opinion, of course, but the point is -- the facts aren't in yet.  The jury is still out.  It's not accurate to use the word "bust" for someone who is still rising, someone who reached the majors at the age of 23 and is just completing his first few weeks in the majors. 

Most people would use the word "bust" to describe an older player who failed to reach the majors, or someone who has had a few major-league seasons and failed to live up to expectations.  It's a wee bit premature to use that word for a kid who arrived at age 23 and is just getting his first taste of the majors.

Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#223180) #
Hitting line drives for outs may be an indicator of future success, but in the here and now it's no better than a popup to the second baseman and has No Value. No Value Whatsoever.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#223182) #
I'm just thankful [Snider's] not the black hole in the lineup that Hill and EE have been as of late, and Lind, Overbay and Wells have all taken turns at so far this season.

Except that he was, of course, back in April. Most guys take a turn through the course of the season - Snider and Overbay in April, Hill and Lind in May, Hill, Lind and Bautista in June, Hill and Encarnacion in September. I don't think Buck, Wells, Escobar, or Lewis ever quite descended to Black Hole status...
Kasi - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#223185) #
Why do you think Wallace is still rising? He posted his best minor league numbers in 2008. 2009 was a regression and in 2010 he regressed again. That's 2 years of trends to go on. Why do you think he'll suddenly improve in 2011, when he'll be another year older? People just loved his swing from his college days, but to now he's shown several years of regression. Maybe he'll be like Romero and change his ways, but what Romero did was very rare. And pitching is a position that traditionally takes longer to hit your peak in. Especially lefty starters.

Magpie I respectfully disagree. By ignoring the process and just focusing on results you would have a very inaccurate reading of the quality of a player. If a player posted Snider's current stats by being very lucky with peripherals, then it would show the player has reached their ceiling and management would be much hesitant about giving major league playing time. It's important for grading a young player if you know the approach they're taking is sustainable long term. Reworking a hitting or pitching approach can take a year or more out of the development time of a player. This also ignores trade value, which is very important. Part of what makes good GMs is being able to spot players who aren't being utilized properly. You have a point that for the result of the out in the box score an out is an out (well within reason, ground ball outs are worse then other outs due to double plays, but the difference is minor) but for everything else the peripherals and the process of how the out was produced is immensely important. Their trade value, how they project to play in the future, whether their approach is even sustainable are all very much based on that.

All baseball teams now heavily use advanced stats that many baseball writers and old timers routinely mock. I don't agree with Keith Law in a lot of things, but his point that front office people laugh at media people who mock advanced stats is right on. For a young player the stats of the moment are far less important then if they're doing it the right way in a fashion that is sustainable and will lead to success in the future. That ultimately is the difference right now between Snider and Wallace. AA could care less that Snider is only hitting mid .240 as long as he's making strides in improving his batting approach overall. And he is. (and as it is he is no worse then the 5th best hitter on the team atm)

Kasi - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#223188) #
Snider had a bad 15-20 days in April. Wells had a 3 months stretch where he was hitting about .235 with a sub .725 OPS. Well has had a good September and was great early season. But between the first week of June and the last week of August he was bad. Although compared to how the rest of our team has done for stretches, that is not that bad. Still far better then anything Lind or Hill has done all season long. Then again they're not being paid the money Wells is either.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#223191) #
Snider had a bad 15-20 days in April...

Split        G GS  PA  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO  BAVG  OBP   SLG  OPS    TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE 
April/March 21 20  83  71  7  11  4  0  3   5  1  0 12 17  .155  .277 .338 .615    24   0   0  0  0   2   0

There are good days in there? I suppose, but that's got to be Black Hole territory if anything is. Wells was never that bad. His July comes closest (.236/.289/.348). That's pretty bad indeed, but it's also his worst month of the season by a mile.

On the other hand Jose Bautista actually was that awful for a while. Which I think demonstrates that it just doesn't matter a whole lot. Over the course of the season these things happen to lots of players. Some guys are steady, some guys are streaky. That's why we add it all up at the end and see what we have.
TamRa - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#223193) #
I don't think Buck, Wells, Escobar, or Lewis ever quite descended to Black Hole status...

Behold.
Since July 28, Lewis has hit .198 - .291 - .288 - .580



Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#223195) #
But between the first week of June and the last week of August he was bad.

Now that's a very tricky argument you're making. The implication is that Wells was bad for three months. That ain't true, no matter how tricky you get. Wells hit .240//291/490 in June, OPS of .781. You're calling that bad? He hit .248/.296/.446 in August - pretty mediocre, I'll grant you. I wouldn't call it bad, but to each his own.

It seems to me that you're taking the genuinely bad month in between and using it to characterize the quite different months on the other side. Something very fishy about this.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#223196) #
Point taken. I'll give you Lewis as Living Breathing Black Hole in August. (He's only had 19 ABs in September.) He was actually above the Mendoza Line for August, which was how I missed it.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#223199) #
Snider had a bad 15-20 days in April...

Split                      G  GS   PA     AB    R    H      2B 3B  HR   RBI SB CS BB SO     BAVG    OBP   SLG  OPS  
April/March 21 20  83  71  7  11  4  0  3   5  1  0 12 17  .155  .277 .338 .615   

It's funny.  I look at that line, and my reaction is: "wow, was he ever unlucky."
The bad OPS is purely BAVG and that is pure bad BABIP.  He had 8 hits in 51 balls in play.
He runs well and hits enough line drives and for power.  No player with that profile is going
to end up with a BABIP under .160. 
Magpie - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#223200) #
"wow, was he ever unlucky."

As I recall, that's what everybody thought at the time. Even the manager.

Of course, I'd rather be lucky than good (being good was never any fun) and I like the same from my ballplayers....
Gerry - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#223201) #

On another topic, apparently Arencibia is the DH tonight against Sabathia.  Since JPA's big debut he has started against Dice-K; Clay Buchholz; Danny Haren; Gio Gonzalez; David Price; Jon Lester; Felix Hernandez and now CC Sabbathia.

Might as well give him a Cy Young vote.

It does look like Cito is sending a message, this game isn't as easy as you think, Rookie.

Kasi - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#223209) #
No not really. What I do remember is about a month ago people showing stats for Well's last 2-3 months and that it was pretty bad. Of course "bad" is relative, since .230 with a .700 OPS would still be about 6th on the team. It just shows how bad Hill, Lind, Lewis and EE have been at times. Or all the time really. The problem I have with going it on months is that one good week can make a month look bad. Of course anyone can take a 6 or 8 week period from any hitter and find some bad hitting.
Kasi - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#223211) #
I'm with Mike on the points he made about Snider's first month. His results were bad, but the approach wasn't. But I'm tired of seeing Hill go up and hack an infield fly on the first pitch, or seeing Wells hit into another DP on a first swing. That's why you have to look at the deeper stats, since results are just part of the whole. If the approach is right then the numbers will fall into place with more repetition. With more at bats luck evens out.
Kasi - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#223212) #
I wanted to comment on Gerry's post, but forgot before I hit post last time. Shame no edits here. Anyway I'm curious if Cito is deliberately putting JPA up against top pitchers, or if it is random chance how that has worked out.
Thomas - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#223213) #
Anyway I'm curious if Cito is deliberately putting JPA up against top pitchers, or if it is random chance how that has worked out.

Of Arencibia's last five starts, four have come against lefties and the other was in a day game following a night game (after Drabek started the night game, when presumably you'd want to match him up with an experienced catcher). Starting JP against lefties makes sense, as he's starting mostly at DH and it gets his right-handed bat into the lineup and removes Lind's. So, it is logical on a cursory glance.

However, looking at September only, he didn't start against the following lefties: Derek Holland, Brian Matusz and Luke French. While I am high on both Holland and Matusz as pitchers, they don't compare right now to Price, Lester or Sabathia. Now, there are several reasons why that could be. Maybe the team believes Lind could hit those lefties better than Arencibia for a particular reason. Maybe Cito is trying to rest Lind against those lefties to try to have him end the season on a positive note and with some confidence. Maybe he is trying to send a message to Arencibia.

The Jays will face Pettitte and Liriano in the next two days and possibly will see Brian Duensing on the weekend. It will be interesting to see which, if any, of those games Arencibia plays.

Alex Obal - Tuesday, September 28 2010 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#223225) #
I was following the game on ESPN.com GameCast, and on there it looked like his only problem in the fifth inning - other than the home run, of course - was that the umpire was refusing to call anything a strike. Like, for the first three batters of the fifth, every pitch was either swung on or was in the strike zone but called a ball. Did it look different on TV?

No idea. First game I'd seen in awhile and my 500 level radar was still getting recalibrated. I recall that ball four to someone in that inning was about a foot and a half outside. But I have no clue. It sounds plausible.

TamRa - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#223226) #
Snider is at 79 games played, double his XBH stats and you get 40 doubles and 24 homers.
Not bad for such an...unusual...season.

He's my pick to click in 2011. I think (pure hunch here) that he'll take over as the "Bautista" for the jays next year (albeit without all those walks)


China fan - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 06:34 AM EDT (#223228) #

WillRain, I'm a little surprised that you would pay much attention to the traditional "counting stats" of home runs and doubles, rather than percentages.  After all, Aaron Hill is looking good in his home-run count too, but that doesn't alter the reality of his bad season.  No matter how you slice it, Snider's numbers this year are pretty mediocre.  He does hit with some power, but his OBP, for example, is a mediocre .301.   Overall, his OBP and SLG numbers this year are slightly better than Rod Barajas in 2008 and slightly worse than Bengie Molina in 2006, just to pick a couple of random examples. Put it another way:  most people say that Fred Lewis is little more than a “fourth outfielder” for the Jays, yet his OPS this season is actually higher than Snider’s OPS.

Consider, also, that Snider is playing a position (LF) that is supposed to contribute a lot of offense to the lineup. Unlike the catchers that I mentioned earlier, he’s not here for other skills such as defence or pitch-calling. He’s here mainly for offense, so his OBP and OPS matter.  Among all major-league left fielders with 290 plate appearances or more, Snider ranks 41st for OBP and 19th for OPS, according to Fangraphs.

If you combine Snider's totals from 2010 with his numbers from 2009, to create the equivalent of a full season, the picture doesn't improve at all.  Basically he hasn't improved from 2009 to 2010, which is odd for a young player of such talent, and it tends to support the argument that he was called up to the majors too early.  Of course there's also the argument we sometimes hear that Snider has been merely "unlucky" this year, but I tend to agree with Magpie's point that we have to count the actual numbers, not the hypothetical numbers.  There's also the argument that we should look at individual months of Snider's season -- bad in April, good in May, or whatever -- but at this point in the season I think we should be looking at his season numbers to get a bigger sample size.

Having said that, the most significant number about Snider is his age (22), and I certainly agree with you that he should improve in 2011.  But this kind of prediction has to be based on his potential, not on his 2010 numbers.

China fan - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 08:52 AM EDT (#223229) #
Minor correction on the above post:  Snider currently has an OPS of .754 and Lewis has an OPS of .745, so Snider is slightly higher in OPS.  But the point remains that they are nearly identical on OPS.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#223230) #
Snider has improved when you dig under the core numbers. His line drive % improved from 17% in 2009 to 24% this year. His AB/strikeout moved from 3.1 to 3.7. His HR/Plate Appearance went from 3.3% to 4.0% In the negative, his BB per PA went from 10.5% to 6.9% (10% should be the goal).

Of everyone on the team this year, Snider's LD% is the highest for anyone with 200+ PA. Wise is higher at 113 PA at 28% while Jose Molina is at 24% as well.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#223242) #
His line drive % improved from 17% in 2009 to 24% this year.

I'll say it again - that's a nice indicator going forward, grounds for optimism. No argument. But looking at what he actually accomplished, they might as well all be popups to second base. There is no damn difference.
zeppelinkm - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#223244) #

Magpie you're correct in that an out is an out. But the outs do tell us something.

I'll give you a poker analogy.

Say you're playing some poker with some friends. You get a little impatient and decide to go all in with 2 - 7 off suit. You hit some cards and win the hand.

Good outcome? Yes.

Good process? No. If you repeat this process of going all in with terrible cards, you will start having a lot more bad outcomes.

Sniders process has looked good this year, even if the results (the "outs") don't show it. If he can repeat his good process, he should start being rewarded.

An out is an out on the scorecard. Correct. But you can have the guy who made all his outs via a pop up to the 2nd basemen and I'll take the guy who made all his outs via hard hit line drives to the outfield and chances are my guy will out perform your guy next year.

ayjackson - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#223246) #

I'll say it again - that's a nice indicator going forward, grounds for optimism. No argument. But looking at what he actually accomplished, they might as well all be popups to second base. There is no damn difference.

I don't understand your point, Magpie.  In evaluating performance, if you aren't doing it looking for an indicator going forward, what are you doing it for?

China fan - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#223247) #
Well, I think Magpie is saying that LD% is a difficult number to interpret -- it's not as clear as the numbers that measure a hitter's actual performance on hits and outs.  For example, Snider has a higher LD% than Josh Hamilton (according to Fangraphs).  Does that mean that Snider is superior to Hamilton in 2010?  Does it mean that Snider is likely to be better than Hamilton in 2011?  Does it mean that Snider is a great hitter who merely got "unlucky" in 2010, while Hamilton is extremely lucky?  It's not entirely clear.  (I'd welcome some analysis of it, actually.)  I suspect that LD% will never become a key indicator of a hitter's performance because it's just a bit too ambiguous and it doesn't really allow a lot of meaningful comparison between one hitter and another.   I'm not totally dismissing it -- I agree that it provides some useful insight into Aaron Hill's poor performance this year, for example -- but I'm just not convinced that it tells us a huge amount.
China fan - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#223248) #
And, as John noted above, looking only at LD% would suggest that Molina, Wise and Snider are the three hitters who were most "unlucky" in 2010 and therefore are the most likely to improve in 2011.  Is anyone buying that?
John Northey - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#223250) #
Oh Magpie, you are smarter than that - to be so focused on 'actual results'. Right now 2010 is pretty much in the books (anywhere from 81 to 86 wins and a 4th place finish). With everyone on the team the big question isn't 'what happened in 2010' but 'what will happen in 2011 and beyond'.

This years 'actually accomplished' stuff is fun to look at but a guy who pops up to 2nd all the time is unlikely to improve, while someone with a high line drive rate is likely to improve.

Of course, what no one has jumped on yet is the guys around Snider in LD% - Molina and Wise. Right behind them? Encarnacion with Lind & McDonald also over 20%. League average is 19%. Bautista is at just 16% which is lower than he had in '07 and '09.

Hmm...what happened if Bautista's LD rate is so low? Well, there is the sore thumb of a 21.8% HR/fly ball rate (outfield fly balls only) vs his career pre-2010 rate of 9.0%. League average is 7.4%. For comparison, Mark McGwire had a career 23.1% (not counting his rookie season as no stats are available pre-1988) with a 19% LD rate.

As to the LD rates a few Jays examples... Tony Fernandez had a 23% rate, Delgado a 22%, Olerud a 24% rate, Pat Borders was at 20%.

Hmmm... the more I look at it the less I like the stat. Seems like HR/fly ball is far more valuable than LD%.

HR/fly ball ...
Fernandez 3.3%, Delgado 16.2%, Olerud 7.5%, Borders 5.8%

That makes more sense - LD doesn't seem to show much other than an ability to hit well enough to survive. HR/fly ball though strongly shows power. Snider is at 11.5% this year vs 11.7% last. That suggests a bit of stagnation. But his ground ball/fly ball ratio moved from .77 to .66, suggesting he has figured out he needs to loft it a bit more.

To get an idea of what to look for I looked at Alex Rios - his first 2 years were poor, then a 120 OPS+ season. What changed? His GB/FB ratio - from 1.27 and 0.97 his first two years to 0.57 and 0.58 his two solid years (120 OPS+). Since then his GB/FB ratio has been 0.7 or higher and his OPS+ has not climbed over 112.

Sso for power hitters, which Snider is, we need to see improvements in HR/fly ball ratio and GB/FB ratio more than anything else as those are indicators of true power more so than LD rate. Makes sense if you think about it.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#223251) #
what are you doing it for?

To describe what just happened?

I have no argument, none whatsoever, with the idea that a high LD rate is an indicator of future goodness. But all that just happened was the guy made an out. They didn't help. We don't give credit for style points. In 2010, they were just outs. Next year, maybe they'll find a hole. Many of them probably will. But they didn't help the team this year.
TamRa - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#223256) #
WillRain, I'm a little surprised that you would pay much attention to the traditional "counting stats" of home runs and doubles, rather than percentages. . . No matter how you slice it, Snider's numbers this year are pretty mediocre.

I'd use the word "average" rather than "mediocre"

  Overall, his OBP and SLG numbers this year are slightly better than Rod Barajas in 2008 and slightly worse than Bengie Molina in 2006, just to pick a couple of random examples.

there's a considerable difference between being average at 22 and being average in your mid-30's

Same applies to Lewis, barring a Bautista-like explosion, Lewis is what he is, Snider is just getting started.

My point was, even using the ham-fisted method of counting stats, that given a weird year in which he was injured, and spent some time cooling his heels in the minors, and spent some time in an unnecessary platoon, and hit both at the bottom and the top of the order....that a league average season at his age isn't awful by any means.

those counting stats, crude as they are, would have been third among AL left fielders in doubles and second in homers.

IN terms of OPS, he's 9th in the league but only .011 from 6th. also, other than Michael Saunders (.650) no one else on the list is under 25...and if you note that that's Delmon Young, no one other than those three is under 27.

Young's OPS is .821, he was a #1 pick, and he's three years older.

Here's Young compared to Snider's stats doubled:

Stat - DY - TS

AB - 552 - 564
H - 165 - 142
2B - 45 - 40
3B - 1 - 0
HR - 19 - 24
XBH - 65 - 64
BB - 27 - 42
SO - 78 - 152

Other than too many K's, which you can live with fine if the rest is there, it seems to me that the major difference in these two is singles. Essentially, 1 hit a week.

I hit a week away from being the third best hitting LF in the AL - at 22.


China fan - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#223259) #

.....one hit a week away from being the third best hitting LF in the AL - at 22.....

You make it sound like "one hit a week" is almost nothing.  But there's a huge difference between an OPS of .754 (Snider) and an OPS of .821 (Young) and you shouldn't try to minimize it.  If Snider was close to .821 in OPS, we'd all be praising him and congratulating him for a great year.  But he isn't close to .821, no matter how you massage the numbers.

Would you say that an 85-win season is close to a 95-win season?  It sounds close, but it isn't.  There's a huge gulf between an 85-win season and a 95-win season, as we all know by now.  Would you say that a hitter with a .280 average is close to a .320 hitter?  It might sound close, to a neophyte, but there's a huge difference.  I don't think you achieve anything by claiming that a .754 OPS is somehow "close" to a .821 OPS.  Let's judge Snider on his actual numbers, without arguing that he is "nearly" the same as someone who is 70 points higher.  Those 70 points are the difference between a mediocre hitter and an excellent hitter, and lots of players fail to make that leap.  Keep in mind that Snider failed to improve his OPS by even a single point from 2009 to 2010.  You can't just assume that it's easy for anyone to add 70 points to their OPS.

ayjackson - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#223261) #

But all that just happened was the guy made an out. They didn't help. We don't give credit for style points.

Well the manager isn't there to hand out candies and roses, he's trying to figure out who to play tomorrow.

In the end, with LD rate, it's not the be all and end all.  We're just saying that don't judge a boy by his batting average, because there is evidence available that suggests he was unlucky and his true talent level may be higher than the batting averaging has indicated.

Magpie - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#223263) #
It's all really a matter of context - my own context is generally an examination of what just happened, and later for sorting through the entrails of defunct fowls and predicting the future. After a while I just get tired of being told what just happened might as well not have happened because the future will be yummy and delicious. Fair enough, but I'm looking at what just happened for it's own sake. Can I please do that?
Alex Obal - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#223265) #
For what it's worth, what people mean when they talk about small sample size:

The AL batting average on line drives in play is .716 this year. Passes the smell test, right? A line drive is a hit unless it's an atomball, which happens about 2 times in 7.

Snider's average on LD in play this year is .519, 27 hits out of 52.

If instead he had the league-average non-atomball rate of .716, he'd have 37.2 hits out of 52, all else being equal.

Ten more hits. Assume they're all singles - that would bump his line up to .287/.337/.486.

Mike Green - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#223266) #
FWIW, BBRef has Snider's BA on line drives in 2010 at .560, 28 for 50.  They obviously use a different data source than Fangraphs, but the point is the same.  According to BBRef, Snider's career BA on line drives is .681, close to average.   The short story is that we should attach the same weight to Snider's batting average this year as we did to the .300 mark that he posted in 2008.  We weren't marking him down as the next Rod Carew then, and we're not marking him down as the next Rob Deer now.
ayjackson - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#223278) #
Magpie, because you said the magic word, I'll stop hassling you and allow you to enjoy the game in any manner you seem fit.
China fan - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#223279) #

...spent some time in an unnecessary platoon....

To call it a "platoon" is not accurate.  Over the course of 2010, there were only a small handful of games where Snider was available and did not play at all.  He was rested for 6 games in August and 3 games in September.  That's hardly the definition of a "platoon."

TamRa - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#223284) #
those silly old counting stats went up by a homer tonight and his OPS is up to .768
(14 points on just one good game is a pretty good indication of just how much these numbers can fluctuate)

Applying thread x2 from up thread he's projecting to 160 games and 26 homers
I will, without parsing the whole, post, quibble with something you said CF -

"70 points is the difference in a mediocre hitter and a an excellent hitter"

NO SIR.

Young isn't an excellent hitter, HAMILTON is an excellent hitter. Young is an above average hitter.
If we accept the proposition that Snider is a roughly average hitter this year, as indicated by OPS+, then you are setting "average" (or mediocre to use your word, which is prejorative IMO) at around .750

so...just using your 70...let's make it 75 points...

around .525 = awful hitter
around .600 (and below) = bad hitter
around .675 - below average
around .750 = average
around .825 = above average
around .900 = good hitter
around .975 = excellent hitter

of course, adjusted for by position. Yes I'm making this up out of whole cloth but the point is, the difference in a "mediocre" hitter and an excellent hitter is more like 200+ points.


Anyway, the point wasn't to say "look, snider is ALMOST as good as Delmon Young" at all. you seem to be responding to that  but the actual point was "He's 22 and he was within a reasonable distance of a #1 pick who is 25"

I don't think you appreciate the significance of being a league average LF in the AL at 22.


earlweaverfan - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#223287) #
Allow me to add that when Snider was injured, he was just getting hot. IIRC, in the games just before he was injured, he had gone from hot to smoking. In an older, established player, that would most likely be one of the normal peaks and valleys in a season. It could easily be the same for him, also.

Still, for much younger, not-yet-established batters like Snider, they can be just learning the tools of the trade, and figuring out how high they can reach. Over the last few days, you can see Snider getting back to that place where he keeps exploring new peaks.

While there is no way he will turn into a Bautista circa 2010, a 32 HR season next year (if healthy throughout) would not surprise me at all.

What fun it will be to watch.
TamRa - Thursday, September 30 2010 @ 02:15 AM EDT (#223294) #
If he's healthy, I'm predicting he makes a run at 40.
CaramonLS - Saturday, October 02 2010 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#223430) #
Great write-up Mags, you're still the top contributor on this site IMHO.
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