That's rather unfortunate but It was expected. 

Anyone get a chance to read this article from Fidlin in the sun today.  He believes the Jays are considering bringing back Buck and Overbay and it seems JPA may be headed back to the dreaded desert with this quote: (assuming Gaston actually speaks for the front office here)

"Gaston said he was going to have some difficulty finding starts for Arencibia and that the rookie would "have to have a heckuva spring" to get himself into a position where he would have the confidence of the club and the pitching staff next season."

assuming Gaston actually speaks for the front office here

That might be a rash assumption.  It is somewhat unusual for an outgoing manager to comment on what might or might not transpire next year in spring training.   Gaston has taken a lot of heat for some of his lineup decisions, and it seems to me that he is attempting to answer his critics.

I understand very well why the club might want to keep Overbay and leave Lind as a DH in light of their respective defensive abilities, but the comment that Lind might not be ready to be a first baseman next year because he is getting married in the fall, struck me as odd.  I'll send him a first baseman's glove to wear for his big day if that is what it takes...At my wedding, I could not find my lovely bride's ring in my jacket pocket for a minute.  A friend of mine (also a baseball fan) called out that he would toss me his.  You never know when you might need a first baseman's glove at the altar.

That is one sorry looking mascot.  Is that Cosmo?

If Carlos Delgado was the starting first baseman here for 9 years, I think Adam Lind can be okay..

I have a lot of confidence in AA. I don't know if Arencibia will be the starting catcher next year, I think they might shuffle him a little between catcher and third..

I would be shocked if BOTH Buck and Molina are back next year.. I wouldn't be shocked if just one of them returned...

It would appear that AA is counting down the days until he can get Cito out of his hair. AA seems way to rational to sit back and watch Cito's decision making.... I would love to know whats going on between Beeston, Cito and AA right now..

Gaston also said that Buck was going to start until he hit his 20th home run.  Gaston's way of thinking boggles the mind: he says the team doesn't yet know what they have in Arencibia and that he'll have to really impress in Spring Training to get a shot as a starter.  Isn't roster expansion for a team that isn't contending normally a good time to figure out what you have for next season?

I'll be glad when this season is in the books and Cito is done.

I wonder if JPA showed attitude towards Cito or something. Perhaps coming up, having that great game, then saying he had nothing to learn. Perhaps he missed a catchers session pre-game at some point, where the catchers go over what is coming up. Lots of possibilities where the need to teach him a lesson by sitting him down until the attitude adjusts could be needed.

I wonder if JPA showed attitude towards Cito or something. Perhaps coming up, having that great game, then saying he had nothing to learn. Perhaps he missed a catchers session pre-game at some point, where the catchers go over what is coming up. Lots of possibilities where the need to teach him a lesson by sitting him down until the attitude adjusts could be needed.   I've read that JPA is an extremely confident person, perhaps borderline cocky even.  I saw him a couple of days ago on sportsnet Jays connected saying there was nothing left for him to prove in the minors.  We've seen Cito teach Snider a lesson before (and still maybe) so this is a good point John, could be what's going on, whether it's justified is another question all together as rookie's seem to bother Cito.

as rookie's seem to bother Cito.

This is not true, at all.

I suspect the Jays are just going to live with Vegas as is for now. I'm sure they are working behind the scenes to try to gain a new affiliate in 2 years but know that it won't be easy. A purchase/move is almost going to be required I suspect to get the ideal situation.

As to Vegas itself, there are advantages. The Dodgers for years used Albuquerque where you'd see things like their 1982 team where future stars had isues - Sid Fernandez 5.42 ERA, John Franco 7.24 ERA, and Orel Hershiser 3.71 ERA (he handled it well). Josh Towers was there this year with a 8.05 ERA. Pedro Martinez had a lifetime 3.76 ERA there - sure didn't hurt him did it?

I suspect extreme parks force pitchers to learn how to get those ground balls that are so vital to success. It makes it harder to evaluate at times, but it also might be a good teaching tool. Now hitters, that could be a different story. Mike Marshall (the hitter) won a triple crown in 1981 hitting 373 with 34 HR and 137 RBI (373/445/675). He'd go to hit 270/321/446 for a 114 OPS+ in the majors - good, but nothing compared to his 1981 AAA season.

Checking Vegas history, they've been around since 1983 (called the 'Stars' back then). Future pitching coaches Tom House and Larry Rothschild were on that team. A few decent future pitchers like Ed Whitson, and Andy Hawkins were there too. Future solid hitter Kevin McReynolds was there too.

A shame there isn't a register for all who played there and team records on Baseball-Reference as that would help a lot. Still, it does show that extreme conditions don't stop players from having success. You just have to adjust for those conditions.

The real question is:  will JPA be ready to be a full-time major-league catcher in 2011 if he plays a few games for the Jays in September?  Or will he need another half-season or full season at Las Vegas before he is ready?  This is a legitimate question, and Gaston's critics are not really answering it.  JPA's gaudy hitting statistics at Las Vegas don't really answer the question, because the issue is his catching and his ability to work with pitchers, not his offensive abilities. Where is the evidence that JPA is ready to be a major-league catcher -- one of the toughest positions on the field?  Gaston appears to believe that he's not ready and that he needs some more time in the minors, even if it's just a few months in 2011.  That could be a fair assessment.  There's no reason to dismiss it as mere "pro-veteran bias" unless you have evidence that other experts disagree with Gaston's assessment.  If there is such evidence, please provide it, because so far I haven't seen it.

Last week, I quoted extensively from Jeff Blair's recent interview with Anthopolous, in which both Blair and Anthopolous appear to agree that JPA is not ready to be a major-league catcher.  Now here's a quote from Ken Fidlin in his story this week:  "The catching conundrum has several aspects to it. For starters, are the Jays ready to risk taking a step back next year by installing a rookie catcher to work with their young pitching staff, which has benefited from having two mature catchers this year?"   So again, there's another observer who is suggesting that there's a risk to the Jays young pitchers if JPA is their catcher.  Let's face it -- it's not only Cito Gaston who is raising this question. 

In the Fidlin article, Gaston is again quoted as saying that JPA does not have "the confidence" of the pitching staff.  There are two possibilities here:  either Gaston is flat-out lying (although he has no motive and no logical reason to blatantly lie about something like this) or in fact he is telling the truth -- JPA doesn't have the confidence of the pitching staff.   I just don't see any credible reason why Gaston would want to lie about this.  At the very least, I think we as fans should be open-minded about this, and at least consider the possibility that maybe JPA is not yet ready for the majors (as a catcher -- unless you want him to switch to DH or 1B) and maybe he does need a few more months in the minors, or even a full season in the minors. 

In any event, we'll know by April.  Gaston will be gone and the new manager will be free to choose JPA as his starting catcher if he thinks it is warranted after spring training.  Then we'll see if it's just some quirky bias by Gaston or whether his concerns are shared more widely.

 

I've read that JPA is an extremely confident person, perhaps borderline cocky even.

We've also read about his extraordinary work ethic when it came to learning the position of catcher in the minors.

"I've read that JPA is an extremely confident person, perhaps borderline cocky even."

"We've also read about his extraordinary work ethic when it came to learning the position of catcher in the minors."

I agree, I actually didn't mean it as the criticism it sounds like, I meant it as perhaps it has been misinterpreted.

Lots of rookies got their first chance under Cito over the years. The trick is for them to show respect and a desire to learn. If you don't show that then Gaston seems to want nothing to do with you.

His first team, the 1989 team, had a rookie take over part-way into the season in RF by the name of Junior Felix. He came up May 3rd, played the full game on the 4th which was the start of a 22 game streak of playing every day, but hitting just 258/305/404. He was pulled in that last game in the 4th inning for some reason, missed a game, then went on a tear hitting 370/433/630 over the next 6 games. If he was really 21 (he wasn't) then his 105 OPS+ that year would've been the start of a star career. Instead he had a 109 the next year and was traded for Devon White - hated the trade at the time, but boy did it work out.

That same team saw Nelson Liriano get his only 100+ game season in, and Pat Borders become a semi-regular.

1990: Olerud gets 421 PA as a rookie (no minors), Glenallen Hill and Greg Myers get semi-regular playing time

1991: Ed Sprague gets almost 200 PA (100 in AAA) filling in for Gruber, Juan Guzman becomes an ace as a rookie

1992: Jeff Kent plays regularly at 3B until traded, Derek Bell given a shot (184 PA) despite an injury and his infamous attitude issues.

1993: Ed Sprague now becomes an everyday player but otherwise no space on this WS team

1994: Carlos Delgado gets a shot at the start of the season but slumps horribly and plays nightmarish defense, the strike hits right as the team figures out it is going nowhere

1995: Alex Gonzalez gets to play everyday at 21, Sandy Martinez broken in as vet Lance Parrish hits the end

1996: Tomas Perez given a shot, Carlos Delgado arrives,

1997: Shawn Green gets nearly 500 PA, Shannon Stewart nearly 200

Rookies have been given shots on teams run by Gaston, even on teams fighting for the playoffs. If they show him respect, he shows it back seems to be the rule. I wonder if we had a good GM during the 90's instead of Ash what could've happened - ie: do a clearing out in 1995 once it was clear the team was going nowhere, don't dump good prospects for Garcia/Merced in 1997, etc.

Ugh, just looked at 1997 transactions. Totally forgot about Omar Daal being left unprotected in the expansion draft and would have a 146 and 127 ERA+ the next two years. :P

2012 isn't looking great for landing back in the International League, either.  Rochester might be a possibility again if the Twins continue to provide them with losing teams.  If I were in Rochester, I certainly wouldn't be optimistic right now -- as bad as Rochester was at 49-95 this year, Minnesota's AA affiliate was even worse at 44-98.  That's a combined 100 games under .500.

As John said, the Jays might need to look into buying a team and relocating it.  Unfortunately there probably aren't too many candidates there, either.  Charlotte is the only possible relocation candidate I can see in the International League since their efforts to get a new stadium have stalled and their attendance is among the worst in the league.  If the Jays tried to buy Las Vegas or another team in the PCL and relocate them in an eastern market, that would require at least one other AAA team to shift leagues.

A couple of days ago this blurb appeared in the Buffalo News on the 2008 AAA affiliate shuffling:

Former Blue Jays General Manager J.P. Ricciardi did a poor job taking care of Syracuse when the Blue Jays were there and arrogantly just assumed they would shuffle into Buffalo last year when Cleveland left.

But the Bisons were wary about the Toronto-Syracuse relationship and Ricciardi's unwillingness to visit the club and jumped at the chance to join with the Mets.

Thanks, J.P.

 I think I should apologize for the poor choice of words in my post, I should have left it at perhaps Cito and JPA may not being seeing eye to eye rather than extend it to all rookies.  I have not been a fan of how Snider has been handled and I have issues with not seeing JPA at all currently so the team would actually know if JPA was ready or not, but to extend it to all rookies was wrong and perhaps due to some frustration on my part. 

That is all, please carry on.

I think I should apologize for the poor choice of words in my post, I should have left it at perhaps Cito and JPA may not being seeing eye to eye rather than extend it to all rookies. I have not been a fan of how Snider has been handled and I have issues with not seeing JPA at all currently so the team would actually know if JPA was ready or not, but to extend it to all rookies was wrong and perhaps due to some frustration on my part.

You're not alone and the frustration is understandable. I'm sure many of us are unhappy that Arencibia isn't playing at all in September and the debate on Snider's playing time has been ongoing. However, it's unfair to characterize Cito as having issues with rookies generally, when he clearly doesn't.

Under new owners Nolan Ryan and Chuck Greenberg, he Ranges will have two new affiliates next year -- AAA Roud Rock and A-ball Myrrtle Beach. Those teams are already owned, respectively, by ... Nolan Ryan and Chuck Greenberg. So the Rangers didn't buy a team (do major league clubs do that?) but the ownership situation certainly influenced it.

So the Rangers didn't buy a team (do major league clubs do that?)

It's rare in most leagues, but it does happen.  The Braves own their AAA, AA and Low-A affiliates, and the Padres are reportedly trying to buy the Portland Beavers move them to SoCal.

On the plus side, did I not read somewhere that the 51's are changing their name this off-season???

On the plus side, did I not read somewhere that the 51's are changing their name this off-season???

To what? The Liberaces? The Vegans? The Craps?

While I can wrap my head around Cito not giving JP starts when Drabek, Morrow, Romero, Cecil or Marcum are pitching, I find his decision to not start him at catcher for Hill or Scrabble to be troubling. Evaluating JP is far more important to the long term future of the club than either Hill or Scrabble.

Is that Jar-Jar Binks at his day job?

Well, that's ONE way to get the affiliations you want: buy the minor league teams you want, and THEN buy the MLB team you want to be affiliated with.. :-)

, because the issue is his catching and his ability to work with pitchers, not his offensive abilities.

Which ability NO ONE has publiclly questioned except Cito

Scouting reports don't just mention hitting, they mention a players all around game and last off-season the reports were his defense - which was never BAD - had greatly improved.

There are no intervening reports to the contrary.

Further, even if he did have more to learn, what will he learn defensively from more time in Vegas that he hasn't learned yet? Chavez was down there specifically to mentor him, the same role Molina would presumably fill her in 2011.
In fact, arguably, the defense he still has to learn is how to set the defense against certain hitters and situations, how to pitch to the various hitters in the league, and so forth - that is, he DOES need to learn - but he needs to learn things that are not taught in AAA.

Where is the evidence that JPA is ready to be a major-league catcher -- one of the toughest positions on the field?

Where is the evidence - beyond Cito "We might try Accardo as a starter" Gaston's self-justification?

unless you have evidence that other experts disagree with Gaston's assessment.  If there is such evidence, please provide it, because so far I haven't seen it.

Ricky Romero: "

Lots of rookies got their first chance under Cito over the years.

Let's check that list again:

1989-
Liriano: Had 471 plate appearances coming into '89
Borders: was 26 and was not a rookie either, having 4 months of '88 in the majors
Felix: "got his shot" because Gillick traded Barfield and there was no other competent option to put out there, it says nothing about Cito

1990-
Olerud: a very special player, credit all around where due
Hill: played at the expense of Felix
Bell: played at the expense of Felix or Olerud

Neither player makes a great case for "Cito is fair with rookies" because in neither case was there a veteran competent player being supplanted by the rookie. No one here argues Cito won't use a rookie when rookies are all you have. Look at the '90 bench and show me the solid veteran beaten out by these kids.

'91-
Sprauge: filling in for an injured vet is not "giving a chance" it's having your hand forced by circumstances.
Guzman: I don't think anyone is arguing he has a problem with rookie pitchers.

'92-
Bell: not a rookie, and got less playing time than snider has this year. (Though too be fair, he wasn't forcing anyone's hand) Still, getting into 61 games in a season is not a strong case for "he trusts the kids.
Kent: got 7 starts before mid/late June, and Gruber basically played his way out of the job for a while (Were there not injuries or something involved here?) but partial credit - at least he didn't put Mullinks or Griffin back out there.

93-
Sprauge: props for not turning to Darnell Coles more often, but otherwise, he's again playing the hand he's dealt.

94-
Delgado: Arguably the most anticipated rookie hitter the franchise ever had, but yeah, he put him out there - joins Olerud in supporting your point.

95-
Gonzo: Him or Domingo Cedeno or another kid (Tomas perez) - as good as Gonzo was on defense, it was easy to pick him. but Cedeno wasn't much to push aside and wasn't an established vet himself.

(((it seems to me that the only players relevant to this discussion are those who took the starting position from an established vet, or ket that vet on the bench. Who did Delgado keep on the bench in '94? Darnell Coles? Mike Huff? (Huff actually went on to have a career year when he got to play, but coming into the season he had an OPS+ of 82. Gonzo blocks Cedeno...most of the names you mention were similar cases. playing a young player in the absence of a credible alternative is, again, playing the hand your GM deals you, not being "friendly to young players")))

Green: as much as people rag on Cito for his later treatment of Green, he got a clean shot in '95 while Cito had the option of Maldanado (I assume because of Green's relative defensive ability)

'96-
Delgado: can't count him twice, and i already gave you credit for him
Perez: got his shot after Cedano piddled away his chance, again, there's no veteran alternative worthy of the job (and it turned out, none of the kids were either)

'97-
Stewart: played after Nixon was ditched, only alternative was Cruz, another young player. Not an example of a young player supplanting a vet, rather, "playing the hand dealt"
Green: already had his breakout season, can't count twice, BUT Carter got a ton of AB with a 77 OPS+, Nixon got a ton with a 72, Brumfeld had a 45 and got as many PA as Stewart - all of which argue against the premise that Cito will let a young player blossom if it cost veterans at-bats.


so on the whole - you got Olerud, Delgado, Green, and Kent...and even in those cases it was often injuries or rostor composition that opened the door.

There are questions about all of this, and some of them are likely to be answered very shortly.  There is one question that a reporter ought to have asked Anthopoulos (and maybe one did): "was it your intention when Arencibia was called up that he would get very little playing time in 2010?".  He might not answer that one. 

However, it's unfair to characterize Cito as having issues with rookies generally, when he clearly doesn't.

I think this too is saying more than the evidence supports.

First, set aside pitching - he's used lots of rookie pitchers.

Second, how often did he put full faith in a rookie when he had a solid (in his view, offensively and defensively) veteran as an alternative? As opposed to youngsters getting a chance because the roster composition forced him to?

the answer is - almost never.

that doesn't necessarily mean he "has a problem" with rookies, but it does mean that it SEEMS that Cito starts from the assumption that the veteran is entitled to play, where there's a reasonable veteran alternative, and a rookie has to force him to change his mind. Of the very few exceptions to this, some were so good defensively they got his attention (noteably Gonzo and Green) and a couple are likely going to the Hall of Fame.

I make no apologies for suggesting that Cito is too reluctant to give a young hitter a long leash.

"The catching conundrum has several aspects to it. For starters, are the Jays ready to risk taking a step back next year by installing a rookie catcher to work with their young pitching staff, which has benefited from having two mature catchers this year?" 

I think the correlation between the success of the Jays young pitchers and having two mature catchers is pure speculation. What's the last time the Jays did not have 2 mature catchers? I honestly can't remember. I never liked Gregg Zaun, but I can't say he was less mature than Buck. Besides Buck himself has never had any success before this year. It's not like he has a history of developing young pitchers. Molina is the same. These guys are not recognized as defensive catchers. They're not even average MLB catchers. Nobody will make a starter out of Molina and Buck is still a career .240 hitter that nobody wanted back in April.

Romero and Cecil have improved. Rzepczynski hasn't.  Can't really say anything about Morrow except that he doesn't seem to like throwing to Buck. Overall the pen seems to have regressed. I'm not amazed by the improvement of the young starters. The gains are relatively modest and expected.

Having loaded up on catching prospects, the Jays  need to develop them.

Is JPA ready? We won't know because he's on the bench. You can spin it anyway you want, but there is no reason why he can't catch Rzepczynski or Hill who haven't done anything special with Buck.

one more quote from the Lott article:

Cito has a new goal/excuse for when the younger players might see some action.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/mlb/bluejays/article/864589--jays-one-win-closer-to-goal

Maybe someone can start a thread where we can guess what the next Cito-ism might be.

WillRain, you have a real knack for quibbling with everyone else's comments without saying what you actually believe.  You can round up all the Google comments you wish, but they are irrelevant to my central point, which is:  is JPA ready to be the main catcher for the Jays for 120 games next season?  And, equally important, does the key person -- Alex Anthopolous -- believe that JPA is ready to be the catcher for 120 games next season?  I'd like to know your opinion on this, because that's what I'm debating.  My point is that there are question marks about JPA's readiness to be the 120-game catcher for the Jays next year and there is a possibility that Anthopolous might not anoint him as the main Jays catcher next year (long after Gaston's departure).  That's my point, and I'm not even sure if you disagree with this.  If you disagree -- if you believe that Anthopolous has absolutely decided to make JPA the main catcher next season, and if you believe that none of the questions by Gaston and Blair and Fidlin have any relevance -- let's hear you say it.

Quoting from players or coaches who praise JPA's defence is irrelevant. When you read comments by coaches and players in the BB minor-league interviews, how often does anyone criticize any player?  It's normal protocol -- the politeness of diplomacy -- to praise everyone.  It doesn't necessarily prove that JPA is ready for 120 games as catcher in the majors next season.  There are lots of players in the minors who are praised by lots of people, yet they're still in the minors. The question is not whether they are "good" -- the question is whether they are ready to be a full-time starter in the majors at a very tough position.

You continue to misread the Blair interview with Anthopolous.  You're spinning it wildly and then claiming that something has been "demonstrated" about it.  Since you keep spinning the Blair interview with AA, here again is the key sentence:  "Anthopoulos is more than okay with how Gaston is using Buck and Arencibia."   Despite this very clear sentence, you claim, bizarrely, that Anthopolous has not stated that he agrees with Gaston.  Yet how else can you possibly interpret the words "more than okay"?  If someone says he is "more than okay" with someone else's decision, obviously they are agreeing.  It's plain simple English.  You claim that Anthopolous is merely "not publicly shooting down Cito."  Sorry, that's plain wrong.  Anthopolous is publicly AGREEING with Gaston.

You've also changed the subject by saying that Anthopolous did not criticize JPA in the Blair interview.  That's irrelevant.  Did you really expect that Anthopolous would publicly criticize JPA's readiness?  That's an absurd expectation, because no GM would do it.  Only a departing manager, like Gaston, who has nothing to lose, would even hint at the concerns that the Jays might have.

Some people seem to think that JPA needs to be playing at catcher every day this month because the Jays need to "evaluate" him.  Sorry, that's a bit silly.  Anthopolous is a GM whose central philosophy is endless scouting, endless evaluation, endless assessment of players.  After 220 games at the AAA level over the past two seasons, Arencibia has obviously been evaluated plenty by Anthopolous.  A few games in September won't change the GM's assessment of JPA's readiness.   I'm sure that Anthopolous has already made his decision, and we're just waiting to find out what it is.  And if Anthopolous has decided that JPA should be the starting catcher for 120 games next season, I'm pretty certain that he would tell Gaston to play him every game in September.  The evidence suggests the contrary.

People seem to be thinking that Anthopolous has no influence over the key decision about whether a rookie should be the main catcher for the Jays next season and, if so, how to prepare him for that task.   Is it really plausible that Anthopolous is sitting in his office saying, "Geez, I can't decide what to do about our catching situation in 2011, it's all very confusing, I wish that darn Gaston would give JPA some playing time in September so that I could finally evaluate the guy"?  Not very plausible, in my view.   Anthopolous has already made his decision, based on a ton of data and scouting reports that are already available to him.

Yawn, It's just as likely that AA just doesn't want to have any conflicts with Cito on the way out and like previous articles have said is picking his battles wisely. With so few games left in the year it is not like JPA's playing time is that important. More important is just being with the major league team and absorbing the knowledge about major league hitters that he'll need to know next year.If he isn't ready to actually catch in the majors by now he likely will never be. He's 25 already and has been catching full time for several seasons already. Anything at this point will just be minor tweaks, not reworking of his catching approach. If they don't want JPA to be their catcher, then they will unload him like they did Wallace or move him to a different position like 1B.

And to elaborate on Blair's article, we all read it China. The consensus in the last thread was that you were the one doing the spinning, so for you to accuse Will of spinning is a bit chortle inducing.  We know you have your opinions about JPA, but when you start writing your opinions off as facts believed by the Jay's management with no proof to back you it gets a bit old. You can make all the suppositions you want or fill in the blanks with the words you want to hear, but they're not there in the articles you're quoting.

When the going gets tough, the tough get going.  Can we not talk about something else, like perhaps the best pop song which adverts to September? The efforts of Kurt Weill, Rod Stewart, Earth Wind and Fire and Green Day come to mind.  Or perhaps, the best Septembers by a ballclub?  Or whether Lyle Overbay or some other defensively qualified first baseman should be signed during the off-season?

I like Cito. I am a Cito fan. So it pains me to hear some of the things that he is saying or others say that he is saying. If Cito is being misquoted then that is wrong to him and to us. If "I" misquote him then I am wrong and it is not intentional.

As a Jays fan I am grateful for his contributions and IMO Successes.

The comment about JPA's 2011 chances are not necessary IMO. Buck is having one of his best seasons & was an All Star but he is no Posada or I Rod and R Barajas has had comparable seasons to Buck's 2010.

I think how he makes up his lineup is his right. I would prefer more playing time for JPA.

IMO Cito's 2nd stint with the Jays has been successful because of a few big strides forward eg The young SP, J Bautista & so many 20 HR players.

I understand a few of his frustrations. For example: I don't think he likes the 6 man rotation (if I am misinformed please correct me). He said the extra time off between starts throws off the pitcher getting the extra time off and all the other SPs also because they too end up with extra days off between starts. The math seems correct to me and also the baseball thinking that in general "its too much time off between starts".

One more thing for now.

Gaston's job as a consultant next year I hope is a benefit to the Jays. I hope AA & Cito are working together with the organization's best interest at heart.

Cito is doing things his way, if it is not AA's way I am OK with it because Cito has to believe in himself to be a manager. Next year it will be AA's manager and hopefully they work well together and have success.

I really want Cito's hitting abilities to help the organization.

.....You can make all the suppositions you want or fill in the blanks with the words you want to hear, but they're not there in the articles you're quoting....

And yet I'm the one who is providing the verbatim quotes from the article.  And you're giving a vague opinion that the article says something different -- without challenging the actual quotes that I'm citing.  Not very convincing.

When it comes to catching for 2011 I think JPA is in the picture but the question is how much will the other catcher play. If JPA catches 120+ then Molina is fine. If it is to be closer to 50-50 then a bit of a debate will be needed.

Now, we all know Molina has the lower catchers ERA (3.71) vs Buck (4.50) and JPA (6.20).

The team record for the 3 when they start behind the plate is ...
Molina: 27-21 (they lost the game he started as a DH)
Buck: 47-50
JPA: 2-3

Caught stealing percentage...
Molina: 45% (18-15)
Buck: 28% (46-18)
JPA: 50% (twice stolen, twice caught)

Buck has caught between 100 and 120 games 5 times. Molina just once has caught over 80.

Buck has an OPS+ lifetime of 88 (but over 100 the past 2 years), Molina 62 (only cracked 85 in 2001 over 42 PA).

Molina is entering his age 36 season, Buck his age 30.

This is pretty much summarizing what we already know. Buck can hit but his arm isn't the greatest, Molina has a great arm (41% CS lifetime) but cannot hit.

Catchers ERA isn't a great season stat, but what about long term - has Molina done better than his team over time? You might be surprised. Out of the 12 team seasons he has played (he split 2007 between 2) pitchers did better with him than with the other catchers for ERA 9 times. 2007 he did worse with both LAA and NYY, and in 2004 the ERA with him behind the plate was 0.03 worse than otherwise. On average (factoring in plate appearances by opposing batters) he has cut his staffs ERA by 0.27, or the equivalent of nearly 44 runs over 162 games (over 4 wins worth).

Now, if this is for real then his defense is amazing and extremely valuable. The question becomes how often was he a personal catcher for a prime pitcher (such as AJ last year) and how often did he catch the dregs of a team? As a defense first catcher one would think teams would use him for their kids but I'm not about to do a game by game check.

In the end, I'd be happy to risk going Molina/JPA in 2011 and letting Buck go for the pick. If Buck stays it should be as part of a DH/1B platoon as well as 3rd catcher but I'd have to think he'd get more from a team wanting him as their everyday catcher.

WillRain, you have a real knack for quibbling with everyone else's comments without saying what you actually believe.

I've not been unclear. Cito is good at some aspects of the job (which I've detailed) and, in my judgment, flawed in others (which I've detailed)

Further, as with JPR, I prefer well made and valid points, on either side, when such an argument occurs and take issue with poorly made or false points.

ou can round up all the Google comments you wish, but they are irrelevant to my central point, which is:  is JPA ready to be the main catcher for the Jays for 120 games next season?

WHAT??!?!!?

YOU SAID THIS:

unless you have evidence that other experts disagree with Gaston's assessment.  If there is such evidence, please provide it, because so far I haven't seen it.

Which i did, and not you just wave it away as if it's completely irrelevant?If it's such an irrelevant point - why did you ask for it?

Is he "ready"? Well, i gave you 7 or 8 diffrent observations (none of them from reporters, by the way, but from those who make their living evaluating baseball players) who praise his work - including the man you claim as authoritative when he speaks (Gaston) so I'm not sure what it will take to convince you if you remain unconvinced.

At a MINIMUM it's more evidence than you have submitted that he is not.

And, equally important, does the key person -- Alex Anthopolous -- believe that JPA is ready to be the catcher for 120 games next season?

Did you even read my reply? Again:

Quote:

Anthopoulous, however, is more impressed that Arencibia is becoming "the total package."

"Our staff down in Las Vegas have done a great job with him," the GM said.

"They've really communicated with J.P. that as strong a performer as he's been offensively, things that we value are defence behind the plate, game-calling, trying to lead a staff, making good decisions behind the plate. And I'm more excited about those aspects of his game than I am about the .300 batting average and all the home runs."

Pat Hentgen, once a Cy Young Award winner in Toronto and now a special adviser to the GM, recently returned from a Vegas scouting trip with a glowing report.

"Pat came back raving about how much everybody loved throwing to J.P. Arencibia, how well he worked with all the starters," Anthopoulos said. "That's what it's about from our standpoint."

/quote

If that isn't convincing, at a minimum more convincing than his declining to publically call out his manager in the Blair article, than i don't know what to tell you. Are you arguing the man hires 40,000 scouts, spends years watching him develop through the system, and is willing to say in July that his defense is more exciting than his (everyone agrees) amazing bat and then, based on FIVE gamers in August he does a 180?

Really?

I'd like to know your opinion on this, because that's what I'm debating.

My opinion is irrelevant, i don't get to decide. but for the record, I think that - based on the information available to me which is admittedly limited - any scenario that doesn't involve JPA as the primary starter and some veteran like Molina as his mentor and caddy next season is highly unlikely, and should be. He's as ready as he can get through minor league work and that which remains to learn can only be learned at the major league level.

If you disagree -- if you believe that Anthopolous has absolutely decided to make JPA the main catcher next season, and if you believe that none of the questions by Gaston and Blair and Fidlin have any relevance -- let's hear you say it.

I disagree. The only think between AA and starting JPA next year is the fact that he always keeps his options open and , for instance, if someone came along and offered him a stud 3B for JPA he might take it and re-sign Buck and wait for d'Arnaud or Perez to arrive.

I think the opinions of Fidlin is beneath notice, the opinion of blair is marginally interesting but not remotely conclusive (you might remember Blair promised us the jays would shut Drabek down after 160 IP) and that the quotes from Gaston are not even consistiant with quotes from Gaston so how much stock can you put in any of them?

Quoting from players or coaches who praise JPA's defence is irrelevant.

then why did you say: "unless you have evidence that other experts disagree with Gaston's assessment.  If there is such evidence, please provide it,"?

It's normal protocol -- the politeness of diplomacy -- to praise everyone.

Which is EXACTLY what we keep telling you about AA's unwillingness to publically disagree with Cito - which you chose to read as "alex clearly agrees with Cito"

You can't have it both ways - either all my quotes (which YOU ASKED FOR) are diplomacy and so is Alex's remarks in the Blair article, or neither are.

Oh, and for the record, it's not hard to find at least "lack of enthusiasum" in the interviews you mention - not trashing someone doesn't mean you have to gush - as many gushed in my quotes.

furthermore, IF in fact it is standard diplomatic protocal to not speak negative of your players, doesn't that make Cito a bit of an ass for saying so much negative about some of his guys? i know that neither you nor I believe he's an ass, therefore your "they never say anything negative just to be nice" dodge just went right out the window.

You continue to misread the Blair interview with Anthopolous.  You're spinning it wildly

Given that the last time we discussed this matter i quoted both articles on the table at the time directly, which you specifically acknowledged, I disagree.

here again is the key sentence:  "Anthopoulos is more than okay with how Gaston is using Buck and Arencibia."

From Blair, right? Here's another quote from Blair on July 25:

NOTES Blue Jays fans might not get to see top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek at all this season. Drabek has already racked up 124 innings at Double-A New Hampshire and the Blue Jays want to keep him between 150-160, and manager Cito Gaston said this weekend that even plans to let him get his feet wet in the bullpen in September will likely be shelved. “There’s a chance he’ll just go home after the [minor league] season,” said Gaston. Drabek does not need to be added to the 40-man roster this off-season, so there are service time advantages to the approach, too. …

So, uh, yeah, count me out on the "Blair said it so it must be gospel" bandwagon.

Despite this very clear sentence, you claim, bizarrely, that Anthopolous has not stated that he agrees with Gaston.

Here's what you are missing, my friend, that sentence you posted is NOT a quote!

It does not read like this:

Alex Anthopoulos, commenting on the situation, said "I'm more than okay with how Cito is using the catchers."

 What you quoted is Blair making a claim that AA feels that way, WITHOUT a direct quote which supports it. i refer you again to Blair's claim about Drabek.

If someone says he is "more than okay" with someone else's decision, obviously they are agreeing.  It's plain simple English.

Assuming you can cite me a direct quote to that effect from AA, and not what someone SAYS he thinks, i'll concede that point to you.

Did you really expect that Anthopolous would publicly criticize JPA's readiness? 

Why not? Cito did. More than once. he also dissed Lind as a 1B and by implication EE as a 3B and several other players over the years. Again, either baseball ettiquete allows it or Cito is being an ass while everyone else is playing by the rules. You can't have it both ways.

Besides, I gave you a specific quote (and I remind you, you don't have a specific quote) saying Alex was very excited about JPA's defense. If he had reservations, he could have been diplomatic but diplomacy doesn't demand effusive praise.

After 220 games at the AAA level over the past two seasons, Arencibia has obviously been evaluated plenty by Anthopolous.

I agree - so why are you now arguing he's changed his mind since July? I don't make the argument that the jays need him to play to evaluate him - I make the argument he needs to play because live game action getting out major league hitters is very good experience to take into next year, because ST games do not closely enough simulate the in-season game to provide the same experience.

Getting past the "culture shock" by getting out there in the grind and calling pitches and directing the defense and all the rest in a real game MATTERS. And it will make him a better player next April.

And if Anthopolous has decided that JPA should be the starting catcher for 120 games next season, I'm pretty certain that he would tell Gaston to play him every game in September.

there are a multitude of reasons why he wouldn't do that - the two most obvious being that as a matter of his personal philosophy, he doesn't believe in interfeiring with the field manager, and secondly, that he knows Cito is Beeston's pet and he's picking his battles.

Is it really plausible that Anthopolous is sitting in his office saying, "Geez, I can't decide what to do about our catching situation in 2011, it's all very confusing, I wish that darn Gaston would give JPA some playing time in September so that I could finally evaluate the guy"?

I seriously doubt you'd find one single poster in our membership that thinks that or has made that argument.

straw men are bad form.

Now my head hurts. Let's all move over to the Go Green thread, jhey?

Da Box should probably have a No Fisking rule.

I agree that Fisking is annoying for readers, so I'll limit myself to just one brief point.  WillRain's argument would require us to believe:  1) that Gaston is lying when he says that the Jays pitching staff is not comfortable in pitching to a 25-year-old rookie catcher at this early stage in his career;  2) that Jeff Blair is lying when he reported to his readers -- based on an interview with Alex Anthopolous -- that Anthopolous is "more than okay" with Gaston's approach to JPA.   Personally, I don't think it's likely that both Gaston and Blair are lying.

Having said that, yes, it's best that WillRain and I should agree to disagree, because neither of us is likely to convince the other.

The coroner has called: "That horse is definitely dead."

Will, why not just assume CF is only trying to wind you up?

Da Box should probably have a No Fisking rule.

Never heard that term before - learn something new every day.

Will, why not just assume CF is only trying to wind you up?

Eh...he seems sincere enough. My suggestion to the room, on this and all subsequent occasions, is that when two parties descend to this level of debate, leave them to it and move on - it's pretty clear at this point that me and CF are almost entierly writing for each other's benefit and not for "readability" to others who pass by.

that said, I'll try to control the impulse. although I myself find it maddeningly difficult to reply specifically to the claims of others when a specific post makes several different points.

On the other hand, if one was to make their several points in seperate posts THAT would be annoying too.

Basically, any time we get into any depth on an issue the style in which it's done is going to annoy SOME readers.the alternative is to make shallow points.

I think the problem here isn't really the fisking, it's the repitition of the same points in the same argument which has already been had (twice?) and that much would annoy anyone.

The reason i'm easy prey is because i despise leaving a mischaracterization of my argument standing unrefuted.

for instance:

WillRain's argument would require us to believe:  1) that Gaston is lying when he says that the Jays pitching staff is not comfortable in pitching to a 25-year-old rookie catcher at this early stage in his career;  2) that Jeff Blair is lying when he reported to his readers -- based on an interview with Alex Anthopolous -- that Anthopolous is "more than okay" with Gaston's approach to JPA.   Personally, I don't think it's likely that both Gaston and Blair are lying.

Nowhere have i said either man was "lying"

I pointed out specifically that Blair's reports (as is true of all reporters) are not always accurate. Publishing an inaccurate opinion is not lying unless the writer knows it is inaccurate when it's written.

On Cito I have never said he was lying, i said his statements are not consistent with his other statements - he often contradicts himself. he often provides a variety of different explanations for the same move.

That is also not an accusation of lying.

if i walk away from the thread without addressing that, i let a false charge stand which grates on me. i don't have to get the last word so long as my last words are not mischaracterized.

All that said, i don't see how we avoid occasionally having this level of debate - we just need to strive to not have the same debate three times in a two week period.

I think the problem here isn't really the fisking, it's the repitition of the same points in the same argument which has already been had (twice?) and that much would annoy anyone.

I respectfully disagree, Will. Breaking up your thoughts into short paragraphs is hard on the eyes.

We need a penalty box methinks!!!!! Now where's that green thread or the music thread or a nothing to do with Cito vs. JPA thread?