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Baseball America's Top 20 League Prospects

Baseball America will begin publishing their league top twenty lists this week. I thought I would take a shot at guessing which Jays might make the lists.

This is a tricky objective because I don't know all the prospects from other organizations nor will I be examining the non-Blue Jay rosters of all the minor league teams to see who should make the list. I will approach this purely from a Blue Jay perspective.

Also we have to remember that Baseball America favours toolsy prospects and in this case they are selecting the best prospects in each league, not the players with the best seasons. In the lower leagues that means that high draft picks will have the best shot at the top 20 list. Players like Casey Lawrence, who was undrafted, and Chuck Huggins, who was a 23rd round selection, have virtually no chance of making the lists. Of course that doesn't mean they will not be major leaguers, it means they don't have the potential to be #1 or #2 starters according to BA. Finally there are twenty prospects on each list and usually twelve or fourteen teams so the average is about 1.5 players per organization.

To the lists:

PCL - Las Vegas

It should be easier to make the top 20 in AAA than in many other leagues as the rosters are filled with former major leaguers and career minor leaguers. JP Arencibia was the MVP of the PCL and should be in the top 10, if not the top 5.

On the hitting side the leading hitters were Aaron Mathews, Chris Lubanski, Brad Emaus and Jarrett Hoffpauir. None of these hitters are considered top prospects and Lubanski and Hoffpauir are close to being considered career minor leaguers.

Pitching wasn't a strong point of the 51's. Brad Mills and Marc Rzepczynski were the leading pitchers for Las Vegas but given their stats I am not sure if they have a chance at being top 20 prospects.

EL - New Hampshire

The Fisher Cats made the playoffs and should have a good shot at multiple prospects on the list. Kyle Drabek is a definite choice as one of the top prospects in baseball. I think Zach Stewart has a good shot to make the list as well. He has the potential to be an impact starter in the majors, his ERA was good and he improved as the season progressed.

Other than those two I don't think Randy Boone, Trystan Magnuson or Danny Farquhar will make the list. Boone is a Dave Bush type who needs all his pitches to succeed. It is also very difficult for relievers to make these lists.

Offensively Eric Thames will be an interesting study. Thames was third in the league in OPS and was tied for second in home runs. But BA staffers have downplayed Thames potential and they question his pitch recognition and his selectivity at the plate. I think Thames will make the list, it is tough even for BA to ignore a 23 year old with stats like these; but I don't think he will be top five.

Other than Thames I don't think the Jays will have an offensive representative. Many of the hitters had average seasons with some slumps and none of them are among the Jays top prospects. Darin Mastroianni had a good offensive season but he is not highly regarded enough to make the list.

High A - Dunedin

Travis D'Arnaud should make the list. He did miss a lot of the season with his back problem but he started strongly and is a highly rated prospect. Other than D'Arnaud no other offensive player will make it, Mike McDade had a strong season but he is a one tool player (power) and was not on the Jays top 30 prospect list before the season.

There will be a couple of interesting calls on the pitching side. Henderson Alvarez is a top prospect but he did not have a great season. Chad Jenkins is a first round pick and he too did not have an outstanding season. Joel Carreno and Chuck Huggins were not highly rated prospects but they had arguably better seasons than Alvarez and Jenkins. Despite his season I think Alvarez makes the list. He does have tools, he played in the futures game and he was young for the league. I don't think any of the other pitchers make the list. Carreno might have an outside shot due to his high number of strikeouts.

A - Lansing

Lansing's pitching was not a strong suit in 2010. Chad Jenkins was promoted but his numbers didn't say that he deserved it. Most of the other starters were league average at best.

AJ Jimenez is the top rated prospect on the Lugnuts and he had a strong 2010 season and I would expect him to be on the top 20 list. Other than Jimenez, Lansing's leading hitters were Brad Glenn and Sean Ochinko who are older players. Ryan Goins had a good season but he was promoted half way though the season and might miss the list for that reason.

Low A - Auburn

The Jays strong catching continues in Auburn where Carlos Perez had an excellent season. Perez finished in the top 20 in OPS and was also strong defensively. Perez should be near the top of the top 20 for the NYPL. The next hitters in OPS for Auburn were Lance Durham, Stephen McQuail and Marcus Knecht. I don't believe any of those players will make the list. Gustavo Pierre played in the league as an 18 year old but I don't think he did enough at the plate to make the top 20.

On the pitching side Asher Wojciechowski dominated in three starts but probably wasn't seen enough to make the list. Casey Lawrence was undrafted and despite his good numbers won't make the top 20. Finally Drew Hutchison also had a strong season but due to his lower draft position and his average fastball I can't see him making it either.

Rookie - GCL Jays

The GCL might be one of the toughest leagues to identify which prospects make the list. The league is full of highly drafted high school players and latin players who signed for big dollars. Even though some of these players didn't have great numbers they are still highly regarded and could make the list. Also the GCL has fifteen teams, increasing the competition for top 20 spots.

Some of the Jays best players were promoted before the end of the season. Michael Crouse, Jake Marisnick and Misual Diaz moved up before the end of the season and I am unsure if they played enough to make the list. Crouse had a very high OPS, 996, but doesn't appear on the league leaders list due to not having enough at-bats. On the other hand Kellen Sweeney had only 45 at-bats and might not have played enough for consideration. Marisnick had a good OPS but it was lower than Crouse but Marisnick was a higher draft pick so Jake could sneak onto the list.

Misual Diaz and Deivy Estrada were the best of the Jays pitchers but as non-touted latin free-agents they might not get enough interest to make it. Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard are top draft selections.

This guess is a crap-shoot but I will say Sanchez is the only Jay to make it on account of his draft position.

Summary

The following players will make the BA top 20 lists:

PCL: JP Arencibia

EL: Kyle Drabek; Zach Stewart; Eric Thames

FSL: Travis D'Arnaud and Henderson Alvarez

MWL: AJ Jimenez

NYPL: Carlos Perez

GCL: Aaron Sanchez

Does anyone else want to take a guess?

Posted by Gerry on Monday, September 20 2010 @ 12:01 AM EDT.

Baseball America's Top 20 League Prospects | 37 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

TheBunk - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 12:21 AM EDT (#222760) #

I think you're down playing the case for Drew Hutchison a bit. He may not have been a high draft pick but he was a late round bonus baby out of high school. He also put up impressive stats in his first major league season at both Low A stops and got positive reviews on his control and secondary offerings. I think He has a solid shot at 17-20 on the NYPL list.

Aside from that, I mostly agree with your predictions.

ayjackson - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 12:21 AM EDT (#222761) #

Likely Hechavarria.

TheBunk - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 12:27 AM EDT (#222762) #

Also, consider that Danny Farquhar, a reliever out of a non major conference in the NCAA has previously made the NYPL year end list. Now not every year in the NYPL is created equal in terms of big prospects but it is definitely something to consider when thinking of Drew's case.

Upon further review, I can't see Marisnick NOT making the GCL list unless he's ineligible for the league.

DJR - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 03:27 AM EDT (#222763) #

I'd say Gose has a shot in the FSL based on tools and age.

Gerry - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#222764) #

I forgot to cover a few guys. I think Gose does have a good chance to get in. Marisnick might but I don't know the GCL well enough and there are a lot of young prospects in that league. I was trying to not be too optimistic about the Jays prospects. Hechavarria will be another interesting player, OK numbers but a big contract.

Mike Green - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#222765) #

Gose and Hechevarria fit the profile of players BA likes (and in both cases, there is a lot to be said in favour). Personally, I am looking forward to the BB lists more than the BA ones. :)

1990Jays - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#222767) #

I've read it a couple of times on here already and i don't undestand it, Chad Jenkins has not had that bad of a year. His ERA numbers are extremely deceiving, he's pitched infront of two very bad defensive infields and that is a nightmare for groundball pitchers like Jenkins. His FIP in Lansing was 2.79 and that is pretty good even after accounting for age and league factors. You can't say hitters are simply squaring jenkins up and his high BABIP is unlucky because his homerun rate would have also been relatively high along with his Opp BA.

Dave Rutt - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#222768) #

I sort of agree with you 1990Jays, but also have a couple bones to pick. First, I'm not sure where you got your data; Minor League Splits has Jenkins' Lansing FIP at 3.23 and his Dunedin FIP at 4.20. Second, your point about his home run rate isn't necessarily true because Jenkins is a ground ball pitcher; he'll always have a low home run rate even when he's allowing a lot of hits, whether those hits are unlucky or not.

But I agree that Jenkins' year wasn't that bad. Chad does two things very well: he limits the walks (1.44 BB/9 in Lansing, 2.49 in Dunedin) and he gets ground balls (over 50% at both stops). If he can maintain his ground ball rate and control at higher levels he can be a successful major league pitcher, but that doesn't always happen, and at this point his strikeout rate is too low to compensate in case those other aspects of his game go in the tank.

tercet - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#222769) #

Im sorry but call me crazy, but why is everyone so excited about Hech?
As discussed over the past few weeks on this site, currently his best comp currently is Yuniesky Betancourt, if he improves a bit next year, which isnt much to be excited about.
You can be optimistic, saying he has great tools, great defense, hes young, and its is his first year in american pro-ball.
But to be blunt and honest, currently he sucks

ayjackson - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#222771) #

ZAaaaaaaaaaaaaaI don't read any excitement in this thread about Heche. A couple of us have pointed out that he'll probably make BA's Top 20 list for AA. Do you disagree?

As MG points out, he's young and toolsy, has a pedigree (big contract) and in the high minors - these are the things that often seem to end up getting you on a prospect list.

Betancourt is a pretty mediocre defender, so that comp remains to be seen.

ayjackson - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#222772) #

I'm not sure how the "Zaaaaaaaaaaaa" go into that thread....it should start with "I".

1990Jays - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#222773) #

I get my FIP numbers from my own spreadsheet, i use the same formula fangraphs uses but i'm guessing minorleaguesplits uses a different constant to add on so that the average FIP equals the average ERA for a given league.

greenfrog - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#222774) #

A-Hech is still very much an unknown quantity, but as ayjackson points out, he's young (21) and toolsy. He dramatically improved after being promoted to AA this year, which is a good sign (fast adjustment). Combine that with the fact that he has the potential to be an elite defensive SS, and you have a valuable prospect.

The question is, can he make further adjustments as he matures in his age-22 and 23 seasons? According to Keith Law, he needs to improve his throwing, and while his offense improved over the course of the season, he obviously still has a ways to go with the bat.

TamRa - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#222776) #

IIRC, it's also true that Jenkins numbers tailed off considerably once he got past his previous high in IP

Perhaps some fatigue involved?

Dave Rutt - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#222777) #

That's true Will, his July and August ERAs were both over 5. This also happened to coincide with his promotion to Dunedin though, so the cause of his struggles is not entirely clear - it could be promotion-related, fatigue-related, or both.

vw_fan17 - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#222778) #

Totally wrong thread, I apologize..

Anyway, in yesterday's (Sunday's) game with bases loaded, 1 out, was anyone else wondering why was JPA SLIDING into home on the FC to 3rd? It was a force play - I've always thought sliding is in case you get tagged/non-force play..

AFAIK, sliding slows you down - wouldn't it have made more sense to run all the way and try to step on the plate (a la running out a single at first)? It's not like you can overrun home and tagged out later (since it was a force play - if the catcher has the ball, he just steps on the plate)..

btw, is the catcher allowed to block the plate on a FORCE play?

Original Ryan - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#222781) #

Toronto's prospects will be spending at least another two years in Las Vegas. The Astros have reached an agreement with Oklahoma City, so Las Vegas is the only remaining option for the Blue Jays. It's disappointing, but not entirely unsurprising.

Mike Green - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#222782) #

Jenkins is not BA's kind of prospect, except for the fact that he was a first round draftee. He is a collegian without overpowering stuff. When you look at his performance as a 22 year old in A ball, you can feel pretty confident that BA will not name him. I wonder what John Sickels would say; he might give Jenkins a bit of a mulligan because it was his first year of pro ball.

Mick Doherty - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#222783) #

Mick Doherty - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#222784) #

btw, is the catcher allowed to block the plate on a FORCE play?

vw17, I don't honestly know if there's a rule covering that, but more to the point -- why would there be? What possible benefit would the defensive team get?

Original Ryan - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#222785) #

OKC not a great affiliate city, from what I've seenin the past few years for Texas. Not terrible, but nothing over-the-top oustanding. And it;s not like OKC is appreciably closer to TO than LV is, hey?

Oklahoma City would have been an improvement in the sense that the park is fairly neutral (relative to others in the PCL, anyway) and they only play 12-20 games in the high altitude ballparks during the regular season. Plus the facilities are newer and better than what's in Las Vegas. Still not ideal, but better than what Toronto has had since Syracuse dumped them.

China fan - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#222786) #

Interesting that Jenkins is only 2 weeks younger than Kyle Drabek. There seems such a gulf between them in terms of maturity, poise, and even in terms of career accomplishments so far....

vw_fan17 - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#222788) #

vw17, I don't honestly know if there's a rule covering that, but more to the point -- why would there be? What possible benefit would the defensive team get?

Hi Mick. No idea either - but it was the only reason I thought that someone MIGHT try to slide into home (i.e. if the catcher can block home, then even if the throw to home for the force is a little late, they might still get the runner). If they can't, then I have NO clue why JPA SLID into home on that force play..

wacker - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#222789) #

regarding travis D. i understand he has a herniated disc, can this be chronic?

Mylegacy - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#222790) #

I see Jenkins and McGuire as being very similar. Both big, non-overpowering, four pitch, fairly seasoned college pitchers. At worse a Tallet / Richmond type guy at best a Romero / Cecil type. I don't see either getting a sniff of a league Top 20 list this year or next.

ramone - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#222791) #

I actually thought that Jenkins was a two pitch pitcher when they drafted him, sinker and slider and the changeup was a work in progess where as Deck had four developed pitches including a change up.

TheBunk - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#222792) #

Deck McGuire has a good shot at making the top 100 this year and you don't think he'll have a chance a league top 20 next year? He was a consensus top 10 pick in the draft.

Lugnut Fan - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#222793) #

I had the opportunity to see Jenkins throw a bit this year, and regardless of what his numbers do or don't say, he has a lot of work to do. He was very dominant when going the first time through the order. The second time, the jitters started to hit him and by the third time through, they had him timed and were squaring him up quite well. The infield was not the reason that he gave up so many hits. He was a sinker, slider guy in Lansing and threw very few change ups. He just didn't dominate the MWL like he should have.

He does get a lot of ground balls which is very encouraging. If he can command his pitches a little better on the corners instead of over the middle of the plate and work an off speed pitch in there, he most likely will have far more success.

I think he has to start the year in Dunedin however.

Magpie - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#222794) #

currently his best comp currently is Yuniesky Betancourt

Maybe, but Betancourt's not a very good comp at all because of the age difference. (Hechevarria is doing at age 21 roughly what Betancourt did at age 23.)

Not that I'm excited about Hechevarria. I just don't get excited about kids in the minors anymore. Delgado was probably the last one...

Mike Green - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#222795) #

Not that I'm excited about Hechevarria. I just don't get excited about kids in the minors anymore. Delgado was probably the last one...

Chacun a son gout. I am excited about Carlos Perez, and he just graduated from the NYPL.

TamRa - Monday, September 20 2010 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#222796) #

Can't speak to how Jenkins compares on "stuff" and the like, but physically -

Both he and Asher Wojciechowski are listed at 6'4", 235

Looking at Jenkins' game log - if you take out the first start in july (4 IP, 7 ER) his ERA for that month falls to 3.38 and his ERA in Dunedin before August 1 (without that game) would be 3.16....so that, on the surface at least, mitigates some the doubt about the promotion being the source of his distress.

He matched his college high in IP by the end of June, and his "120%" figure would have been 110 IP but he was at 120 by the end of July.

so it seems to me that you could almost bet that August would be ugly.

robertdudek - Tuesday, September 21 2010 @ 12:26 AM EDT (#222797) #

btw, is the catcher allowed to block the plate on a FORCE play?

vw17, I don't honestly know if there's a rule covering that, but more to the point -- why would there be? What possible benefit would the defensive team get?

As far as I know, the catcher isn't allowed to block the plate without possession of the ball under any circumstances. Obviously, the umps let the catchers set up before they have the ball and in some cases the catcher can block the runner while the ball is not quite in his possession - with impunity.

dawgatc - Tuesday, September 21 2010 @ 05:16 AM EDT (#222799) #

maguire was a top ten prospect in every mock draft I saw this year - many times top 5 -the jays have more scouts than any team right now and they drafted him and paid him a bonus 0f 2000000plus - its a little starnge to label him as a non candidate for some A ball leagues top 20 when he hasn't even pitched for us yet - he pitched for georgia tech i believe ;which means he was already pitching at a fairly high level and dominating - he looks great on video and has command of 4 pitches - only history will tell but i have every confidence that deck will dominate next year at any A ball level and trust that the jays scouts know a lot more about deck maguire then me sitting at home watching him on youtube

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 21 2010 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#222800) #

Obviously, the umps let the catchers set up before they have the ball and in some cases the catcher can block the runner while the ball is not quite in his possession - with impunity.

True, but understated. Catchers are expected to block the plate, even if it is contrary to the rules to do so. The play at the plate is the one exception to the rule that baseball is a non-contact sport.

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, September 21 2010 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#222804) #

Hm. Tell that to a middle infielder trying to turn a double play!

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 21 2010 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#222806) #

Right you are, Mick. Except that the "vicinity rule" allows the avoidance of contact in many cases...I wonder if we'll ever get the vicinity rule for runners coming into home plate who are being blocked by large catchers.

I would like to think that these issues do not lead so many lawyers to follow baseball.

Denoit - Thursday, September 23 2010 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#222907) #

GCL list is out, and they are giving praise to the Blue Jays.

"The Blue Jays led all teams with four players on the list, two from the 2009 draft who earned a promotion partway through the summer�outfielder Jake Marisnick and first baseman K.C. Hobson�while 2010 draftees Kellen Sweeney and Christopher Hawkins accrued enough playing time to qualify. Toronto could have easily had six make it as righthanders Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez, taken in the first and supplemental first-round this year, performed well and have upside, but they barely missed the minimum innings requirement."

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