I've a hunch that Zep will only go 3-4 IP on Wed and Ray will then be expected to go 3 or 4.

So, the Jays are trying to achieve two things, I presume. First, to replace tired arms in the starting rotation, and second, showcase possible arms for the fifth slot in the rotation and multiple bullpen slots for next year.

To me, the former challenge is much easier. Barring injury (crossing all fingers and toes), they can choose from among Hill, Litsch, Mills, Rzep, and Richmond, none of whom is likely to be fabulous, but each of whom could step up to the fifth man standard, at least until Drabek or Stewart arrive.

The bullpen is a different kettle of fish entirely. The widespread point of view here at BB is that one should not invest heavily in relievers, as they are very unpredictable, and are also widely available. In other words, e.g., one should not renew Downs and Frasor, as they will cost more in cash than their expected value in either 2011 performance on the mound or as barter for draft slots.

Still, what I think is the largest single improvement the team could make next year would be to add a couple of outstanding relievers, of the Thornton, Santos, and Bard calibre, ON TOP OF (not instead of) keeping the current bullpen quality.

By contrast, if we let Downs and Frasor go, we end up with no better than the following - in the strongly deserving category:
1) Gregg
2) Camp
3) and maybe, Purcey

In the okay category, we could add one or two of the guys who were not good enough for the pen through most of this year, but who have grown on the job:
* Roenicke
* Carlson

And/or we could add the lead runner-up for the starting rotation (not a highly exciting concept), or we could add one of the less valuable AAA pen types (e.g., :Lewis or Accardo) or even at AA (Farina, Farquhar, or Magnuson).

Against that comparison group, wouldn't Downs (continued) be just what we need going forward? He has been Mr. Predictable year-in and year-out, and our 8th inning lefty ace. Even Frasor from the second half of this year would be greatly worth having.

The compensation draft picks, even if they turn into a rising stars, won't show up for another several years.

Unless AA has great plans to make a big trade we don't know about (say to re-acquire Collins!!) the loss of Downs and Frasor sounds like a recipe for bullpen deterioration, just when our starting pitchers will be ready to take it up one more notch.

The best thing is to identify a relief pitcher who is underutilized as Nathan was when the Twins acquired him.  Failing that, one of the starters (Zach Stewart?) will probably fill the high leverage relief role in the medium term.  You do not want to spend a gazillion dollars in the free agent market though. 

I think the big question for the pen is long term vs short term thinking.  If you think the Jays will contend in 2011 then you want Downs (I'm not so high on Frasor anymore).  If you think 2012-2014 is the window then Downs isn't your #1 target to keep around.  Remember, he is 34 and if he signs a 3 year deal (as I suspect he will) then you are looking at ages 35-37 which are not the ideal years to have a guy for.  Downs might be lights out for those years, or he might be league average or worse. 

If you can get 2 draft picks for him it is well worth letting him go.  If he stays via arbitration, fine he should be OK in 2011.  But committing longer than 1 year to a 35 year old reliever is just asking for trouble.

The thing that probably helps a bullpen the most is good starting pitching.  And remember, the potential loss of Scott Downs or Jason Frasor (I'm less inclined to think he is leaving/serious sign-and-trade candidate) is very nearly offset by the loss of Brian Tallet.  If our bullpen next year is Gregg-Camp-Frasor-Purcey-Janssen-(long lefty)-(extra arm), how much of a drop is that?  Problems would arise due to overuse, but that's the same no matter who the team or arms are.  If it is such that the bullpen needs to get one or two fewer outs per game thanks to superior starting pitching, that should only improve the bullpen.

I would be very surprised were the Jays to sign Downs. In fact, I'd suggest there's virtually no chance of it. Not only would they be investing a great deal of money in a reliever when the chance of competing for the division next year is extremely slim, more importantly they'd be tossing away two high picks which they've been coveting and preparing for with a restored scouting dept.

Farina's interesting, though his bb/9 at NH weren't attractive. Still, I would anticipate that a couple of our minor leaguers will win relief jobs next year. I don't know that the Jays would want to start Stewart's service clock.

I hope the Toronto media talks up the Thursday start.

I'm just wondering if the Jays are going to pick one of Gregg's options. He has been lights outs since July and he's currently having a career year. The 4.5 million club option for 2011 or 8.75 million club option for 2011-2012 isn't going to financially cripple the Jays if he goes back to being ..... Kevin Gregg. Despite the good season, I would still pass on both options and just pay the $750,000 buyout. The Jays are unlikely to contend next season and I think it's a waste to spend millions on a pitcher like him. 

Interesting analysis, earlweaverfan. In other words, your standpoint of keeping Downs and Frasor relies on their predictable pitching performance as late-inning lefty and righty pitching. I do think that a reconciliation of BB's and your points of view is to find predictable pitching performance, with or without Downs and Frasor. I do agree with John that age 35-37 is risky to be signed a long term contract: either lights-out, or worse, or garbage if career or season ending injuries happen. Injury risk increases with age, no matter what type of pitcher. 1 year plus an option is my reconciliation.

Look at the 750k of Gregg's buyout as the price of a compensation round draft pick - it's a pretty good value.

I would love to see Stewart pitch out of the bullpen every few days while Litsch/Richmond/Hill/Mills/Zep/FA hold down Drabek's rotation spot until June.

It's not a 4.5  or 8.75 option. You have to subtract the .75 because it's a sunk cost now. How about Gregg for 3.75 next year? That's not so bad. Anyway, I might keep him expecting to get picks from Downs and Frasor. It's hard to say where the market for relievers will be this offseason and whether teams are going to be spending money. You never know which players are more eager to re-sign too. GM AA has a lot of options to choose from, so I think that bodes well for the team and bullpen.

Can the Jays reconstruct the contract with Gregg? say 3 million but less than 4 million? If Jays does not resign with

Personally, I think we better off stacking up good players than blindly following the common notion of unlikely to be contending next season. At the beginning this season, the odd for the Jays is not good. In the end, the team managed to get good players from trades (Gose and Yunel Escobar) for veteran and prospect (Gonzalez, Brett Wallace) and astonishing performance from other players (40 plus HR from Bautista). I do think the Jays will still not contend next season. But with the stacking of players, good performances from prospects and veterans, I think we just need some kinds of leaps each season to push the team performance to next higher level. For this season the leap was the surprising performances of veteran like Bautista, Gonzalez, Buck et al. Rich teams like the Yankees can always make those leaps during offseason and trading deadline with funds. The Jays found other ways to make those leaps, say intervening in trades (exchanging Wallace for Michael Taylor, then Gose for Wallace), getting draft picks from free agents (what happen if Scutaro is resigned? Escobar would not be a Jays.)

What I am afraid is that the leaps take too much time or many seasons to accomplish, recalling the Doc scenario when he was a Jays.

If Jays does not resign with Gregg, what benefit can be achieved in letting Gregg go or signing as a free agent.

... clicking that Submit button too fast.

GM AA has a lot of options to choose from, so I think that bodes well for the team and bullpen.

Having faith, which I think is AA's attitude towards his scouts. In my opinion, returning the favor to our GM is a good praise to his accomplishment this season.

I don't think Roenicke and Carlson (or Accardo for that matter) were in AAA this year because they are of AAA quality, they were there because of an excess of arms.

I'm neutral on Gregg's option, bring him bback or no.

but IF we do, and the choices for the pen are from among:

Gregg
Purcey
Janssen
Carlson
Camp
Mills/Zep
Richmond/Litsch/Ray

With potentially Hill, Hayhurst, Accardo, and Lewis hanging around and Magnuson, Farquhar, and Farina ready probably well before mid-season if the opening arrives...
(yes, one of six different guys there might be the fifth starter)

that's as many as 17 potential candidates for 7 jobs.

most all of them you could make good cases for their effectiveness as major league relievers.

I'm not seeing the need for expensive imports. that's not to say that AA can't and won't identify some guy he can pick up for nothing that will be the next downs, Carlson, etc - by all means.

But throw big money at a Thornton or someone? i don't see it.

I think with the surplus of viable bullpen arms, I think the Gregg/Downs/Frasor trio will all be better serve as compensation picks than getting their contracts renewed. As nice as it is to have a veteran arm like Gregg to be our closer and to be a stabilizing force in our bullpen. Lets be honest, he basically exceeded everyone's expectation when the Jays signed him. The common response to his signing was "WTF @#$#@!$^@@#$!!!!," A 3.28 ERA with a 1.318 is servicable for a closer but nothing to go GAGA about. Casey Janssen, not quite as good as Gregg this year but his numbers are close enough that you can foresee him being a league average closer. David Purcey, Shawn Camp are both better than Gregg as relief pitchers this year. The question here is whether any of these guys have the intangibles to be a closer. Given that Gregg is nothing special, and we have an abundance of arms comparable or better than Gregg, I think it is best to let him go and roll the dice with our own guys. What about giving someone like Scott Richmond a shot at a late inning role. I don't know how much relieving experience he had in the minors, but looking at his numbers, he has very solid K/9 and K/BB numbers. Since it is unlikely for him to win a spot in the rotation moving forward, I can foresee him carving out his niche in the bullpen.

It's not a 4.5  or 8.75 option. You have to subtract the .75 because it's a sunk cost now. How about Gregg for 3.75 next year?

It's a sunk cost if the Jays don't trade him; a trade is certainly a possibility. 

I believe the Jays will have the time to explore a trade following the season, and before they have to decide whether on the option(s).  But would a team give up a player deemed similar to a compensation round pick?  Probably not.

Is Gregg at $3.75 million worth more to the Jays than a compensation pick?  Gregg is probably worth right around $3.75 million so there's likely no 'profit' there.  Not sure what the expected value of a draft pick in the 30-50 range is, but teams wouldn't be paying the bonuses if they were losing money (on a whole) on the picks.

I think gregg is gone if the jays can pick up a similar player or better at a similar price - why not take the pick and let him go - I believe you get a comp pick and the signing team gives up nothing so why not - ditto for fraser and downs - I wonder if teams ever agree to sign each others type b's so they can both pick up a comp pick - I also don't see why it takes so long to train up rp in your farm system - Id take a long look at farina;magnuson;farquhar etc.next year - I think tallet is coming back as he is not as attractive to other teams - he has been injured this year and he is a true organization player - would probably make a good coach at some point and will accept any assignment thrown at him - seems to understand that this is his value to the jays and his ticket to mlb pension time

Gregg at 3.75 million for next year, especially given his last 14 appearances (12 2/3 IP, 9H, 2BB, 14K), seems like good value - a free agent commitment to someone like Downs is going to be multi-year, which is risky with relievers.  Pick up one option, if Gregg flops, it's no big loss, if he's a success, we get compensation.  He's not great, but he does stabilize the back end of the bullpen and keep the kids out of the pressure situations while we figure out which of the young pitchers will be long-term contributors to our pen. 

If I was a betting man (and I am) I'd wager that Downs, Frasor and Tallet are gone, and Gregg is back for one year. 

He's not great, but he does stabilize the back end of the bullpen and keep the kids out of the pressure situations while we figure out which of the young pitchers will be long-term contributors to our pen.

Exactly.

Gives them a year to try an groom and in house replacement. Will be very interesting to see how they allocate all the pitching assets.

the potential loss of Scott Downs or Jason Frasor (I'm less inclined to think he is leaving/serious sign-and-trade candidate) is very nearly offset by the loss of Brian Tallet.

I assume you're in favour of the loss of Tallet?

Well, here's a tale of two LH relievers:

Age    Tm    Lg    W  L   ERA    G    GF     SV    IP    H   R  ER  HR  BB IBB  SO HBP   WP   BF  ERA+   WHIP    H/9  HR/9  BB/9  SO/9  SO/BB
33    TOR    AL    1  3   3.09   48   24     9    46.2  46  18  16   4  13   1  43   2    1  200   141   1.264   8.9   0.8   2.5   8.3   3.31    
34    TOR    AL    5  5   2.75   58   12     0    52.1  43  17  16   3  13   3  41   4    1  210   147   1.070   7.4   0.5   2.2   7.1   3.15    

29    TOR    AL    2  4   3.47   48   11     0    62.1  49  26  24   1  28   7  54   6    1  267   130   1.235   7.1   0.1   4.0   7.8   1.93    
30    TOR    AL    1  2   2.88   51   15     0    56.1  52  19  18   4  22   3  47   1    0  240   148   1.314   8.3   0.6   3.5   7.5   2.14   

One of these guys is Scott Downs, in his last two seasons as a full-time Blue Jay reliever. And the other is Brian Tallet, in his last two seasons as a full-time Blue Jay reliever. I think I can live with either of these guys, but one of them is younger and is also going to be a lot cheaper. Trying to fill in as a starter has clearly thrown Tallet off his game these past two years, but I see no reason why he can't resume being a very effective relief pitcher.

I tend to be with the 'take the pick' crowd. Right now, it seems to me that all Toronto needs to contend next year, or to offer the hope of contending, are a catcher (does anyone really think JP Aaroncibia will be catching on a contending team next year, if ever), first baseman, third baseman, left fielder who is better than Fred Lewis (sorry Travis Snider fans, I'm not prepared to blame Gaston for Snider's performance), reliable closer, and set up man. If the 2011 draft is supposed to be a strong one, there doesn't seem to me to be a strong reason to hang onto a Type B free agent 32 year old tightrope closer, who has his best era since 2003 and the most saves in several years. His value will likely never be higher.

Hmm so your logic is that we just toss out our best young hitter and our number 1 hitting prospect? Who do you think we will replace these guys with? Reed Johnson? Hey I'm sure we can get Francouer, I think anyone can. Good luck finding guys who can replicate Snider's performance at his age. He is only 22, and is still an above average batter with his struggles. For our catchers, I like Carlos Perez and D'arnaud, but neither of them will be ready for the majors before 2012. Jiminez is a slight possibility, but he just underwent major arm surgery. And don't you think the 5-6 starts JPA got in the majors is just a whee bit little to write him off as a catcher?

I assume you're in favour of the loss of Tallet?

I think I am more just against what he represents.  The Jays are 6-22 when he appears.  9 of his 28 appearances have begun when the Jays are down by more than 4 runs.  Another 5 appearances have begun when the Jays are leading by 4 or more runs, so fully half have been with a 4 run or greater differential.  That, and he has been really bad this year.

Certainly, there is some value in an innings eater who will do his job and not (publicly) complain.  It's just something with the words "Brian Tallet is now warming up in the pen" that make me shudder.

I would like to know if his LOOGY-tastic skills are for real or an aberration.  He hasn't really shown any massive platoon splits in the past, but this year, righties are OPSing 1.032 with a 29-20 BB-K spread against him.  Lefties are OPSing .580 with a 25-5 K-BB spread against him. 

I tend to be with the 'take the pick' crowd.

In order to get the pick, the Jays not only have to buy out his option but also offer arbitration. However, he is a candidate to accept. Because of his shiny save numbers he stands to get a decent award, possibly more than he would get on the open market. The only way he declines is if he believes he can get a multi-year deal. But I don't really see that. I think it's better to keep him for one year. If he does well, maybe the Jays can get picks then because after 2 solid seasons someone might give him a 2-3 year deal.

I think we'll see more Type A relief pitchers accepting arbitration than ever before. Their A-ness seriously hurts their market value.

@ ComebyDeanChance.
Reading your comments, I believe and I hope I am right that you DO NOT believe that the Jays will seriously contend in 2011. I agree that they will not contend in 2011.

1) I believe that AA considers a serious contender is a team that can win 96 games. As of today NYY & TB are on pace to win 96 games. Depending what happens in the off season IMO Bos,NYY & TB are 96 win contenders for 2011. I too believe that ONLY a potential 96 win team in the AL East is a contender.

2) With maybe 86 wins this year, maybe AA will seriously think that 96 wins is possible in 2011. However recent comments by Cito are to "try to finish at or above .500". I don't know why he says that while we are at 4-6 wins over .500. Anyhow at the end of the year we will know our win total and have until Spring Training to figure out what AA thinks of our status for 2011.

I definitely see T Snider & JPA as key pieces of the Jays future and so would hope that they get the opportunity for 500ABs in 2011.
As far as pitching goes IMO our young starters got hammered in 2009 by the AL beasts but did very much better in 2010 and should be even better in 2011 against the beasts. Zep is getting his baptism this year, so I expect him to be OK as our 5th starter in 2011 against the beasts.
Every year for the next 3 years or longer I expect (sort of) a new guy as our 5th starter. Injuries will require a 6th &/or 7th starter. Also if they can earn it then studs like Drabeck will be given the 5th slot over the years.

Our current top 4 struggled in their 1st year against the beasts and so I expect Drabeck & the other stud candidates to also struggle in their 1st year. If however they dominate the beasts and I believe the odd one will then we have our BIG GUY.

I am not sure but I think our bullpen has struggled against the beasts while handling most others. We need 3-4 guys that can hold a lead against the beasts. This scares me the most this year. Our good starters pitch their hearts out and the pen loses the lead or fails to keep the game close. I like Farquar & the other close Minor league pitchers to eventually handle these roles.

In 2009 Wells & Rios, and in 2010 Lind & Hill disappointed by under performing IMO. IMO someone will under perform in 2011 because that is the way it always seems to be.

I think for 2011 the question is can this team improve by 10-15 wins.

Pluses: Hill & Lind have to do better (we think), Morrow should be a lot better than a 90 ERA+, instead of 14 starts by Eveland/Tallet (63 ERA+) we should have Litsch/Rzep/Mills/Hill/Richmond/etc. who should be able to do at least an 80-90 in the 5/6/7/8/9/... starter role. No 40 PA by Ruiz (14 OPS+).

Negatives: Bautista & Wells will almost certainly not do as well in 2011, in Bautista's case it could be a scary drop. Buck's 116 OPS+ behind the plate is unlikely to be matched by either him or JPA, SS is unlikely to stay at 110 for OPS+ although Escobar could improve it, McDonald & Wise having above 100 OPS+ over a combined 200+ PA is extremely unlikely (at the getting hit by lightning level). Downs is likely gone with his 148 ERA+, as is Frasor.

Could go either way: Romero/Marcum both having 110+ ERA+'s over 30+ starts in 2011, Cecil being in the same range, the guys who will be back in the bullpen (Gregg 125 ERA+, Camp 136, Janssen 112, Purcey 155, Carlson 105) could be better or worse. Snider (102)/Lewis (105 OPS+) could be drastically better or the same. 1B/DH with Overbay (112)/Lind(88) should be better with Lind/Whoever but hard to say right now. Encarnacion's 105 and poor D will probably be back and should be about the same.

To add 10-15 wins you really need some breakthroughs or non-collapses and rebounds. If Snider becomes a 140 OPS+ machine, if Lind/Hill rebound, if Bautista doesn't collapse, if Wells keeps it up, if the starters can give us a 4 man 110+ rotation we should be able to add 10 wins. To get to 95+ though we'd also need the pen to be great, the bench to stay solid, JPA to come into his own right away, and a few other things.

That is a lot to ask for. It could happen, but isn't likely. Of course, dumb luck can add 10 wins as the Jays are currently 6 wins below their 'expected wins' via Baseball Prospectus (should be just 2 games behind the Rays, 4 1/2 or 5 behind the Yankees). Flip that to a +6 and you have 12 wins.

Looks like AA hasn't figured out how to fix the biggest problem JP had - he just isn't lucky enough.

"I think we'll see more Type A relief pitchers accepting arbitration than ever before. Their A-ness seriously hurts their market value."

Every time someone mentions this I point to Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Juan Cruz, and Brian Fuentes as relievers in just the last 2 years who were Type A and got multiple years on their new contracts. It's a myth that Type A status hinders the player's ability to cash in and therefore he is more likely to accept arbitration.