Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

A little more than three weeks remain. Who's going to be cashing those bonus cheques, and scooping up some hardware to put on the shelf? They don't let me vote, which is just as well. But if I could...

AL MVP

I generally believe the most valuable player is the player who has the most value - not the guy who represents the greatest portion of what is valuable on his own team. (By that criteria, Paul Konerko and Ryan Zimmerman are our MVPszin 2010, and while they've both been outstanding, other people have been better.) What makes the AL race tricky this year is the fact that one of the top contenders plays a key defensive position and plays it well. Whereas Cabrera, Konerko, and Hamilton (who's been in LF most of this season) generate most of their value with their bat. Cabrera has quite likely been the best hitter in the AL this season, but Robinson Cano plays a very nice second base and he can hit a little too. And hey - the best player on the best team deserves a little respect, and it would be kind of cool to see Cano with one of these awards while his DP partner is still going without. So...

1. Robinson Cano, New York
2. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit
3. Josh Hamilton, Texas
4. Paul Konerko, Chicago
5. Adrian Beltre, Boston

Honourable mention: Evan Longoria, Jose Bautista, Joe Mauer

NL MVP

Trying to make the distinction between Votto and Pujols, at this point in the season...to hell with it. Let's vote for the new guy. As for Carlos Gonzalez - he has been outstanding, but he is also hitting .100 points higher in Coors Field - I thought the humidor put an end to this sort of thing.

1. Joey Votto, Cincinnati
2. Albert Pujols, St.Louis
3. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego
4. Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado
5. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington

Honourable mention: Brian McCann, Scott Rolen, Roy Halladay

AL Cy Young

Hernandez can settle this quite easily by going 5-0 the rest of the way. If he doesn't - well, some people will have trouble voting for a guy with a 13-12 record, when there's another viable candidate who went 23-6 (or whatever.) These two have pitched far more innings than the other contenders, which is a big deal with me. Sabathia has just 2 Cheap Wins (Game Score below 50) and 1 Tough Loss (Game Score above 50). But Felix the King has no Cheap Wins, and 5 Tough Losses. He's pitched more than Sabathia, and he's pitched better than Sabathia.

1. Felix Hernandez, Seattle
2. C.C. Sabathia, New York
3. Clay Buchholz, Boston

Honourable Mention: David Price, C.J. Wilson

NL Cy Young

There were contenders, and there were pretenders, but in the end all of them have fallen away. And Doc stands alone. Halladay may end up leading NL pitchers in quite literally everything - everything but Saves, I suppose. The easiest choice for any award this season, and probably the one predicted by more people than any other before the season started. Everyone saw this coming....

1. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia
2. Tim Hudson, Atlanta
3. Josh Johnson, Florida

Honourable mention: Ubaldo Jiminez, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright

AL Rookie of the Year

Not really a bumper crop. The batch of rookies in the NL this year inspires awe. In the AL, we've got a closer and a guy who's played barely half his team's games among the top contenders. We'll take the everyday player. He has been pretty good.

1. Austin Jackson, Detroit
2. Neftali Feliz, Texas
3. John Jaso, Tampa Bay

Honourable Mention: Wade Davis, Brennan Bosesch

NL Rookie of the Year

Just a fabulous rookie crop - without looking it up, these might be the most impressive rookie batch in years. As rookies anyway, because as Paulie Walnuts reminds us, no one knows what the future holds, my friend. At least five of these guys could a:) win the award in some other year, or b) win the award in the AL this year.

1. Buster Posey, San Francisco
2. Jason Heyward, Atlanta
3. Jaime Garcia, St.Louis

Honourable mention:
Jonny Venters, Gaby Sanchez, Starlin Castro, Jonathan Niese, Chris Johnson, Neil Walker and a bunch of other guys, too (Ike Davis, Jon Jay, Stephen Strasburg...)

AL Manager of the Year

If the Red Sox somehow sneak into the post-season. this goes to Tito, hands down. It's not a very likely prospect now, but how Francona has managed to hold that group together, while the bodies were falling all around him, still demands a great deal of respect. And so does Cito Gaston's work this year. I gave Gaston an E grade for his 2009 season. Not this time around. It's not just that so many observers expected his team to lose at least 90 games, although that is pretty impressive. And never mind his role in Jose Bautista's season. Gaston's most important contribution by far, which the team may be benefiting from for years down the road, has been his work in turning young arms into front-line starters. He has a long history of doing this very thing, of course.

Ron Washington is going to get a lot of votes for a:) just keeping his job as well as b:) running away with his division. But Ron Gardenhire has been without Joe Nathan all year long. His best hitter went down just before the All-Star Break and hasn't been back since. Joe Mauer is having a down year by his own awesome standards (he's still been one of the best players in the league, of course). He's got just two decent starting pitchers. I am impressed. As for Ozzie - while Paul Konerko has meant more to his team than any player has meant to any team - it's still a deep, deep mystery to me that the White Sox are still in the hunt. Ozzie's playing Omar Freakin' Vizquel at third base, for heaven's sake....

1. Ron Gardenhire, Minnesota
2. Ron Washington, Texas
3. Ozzie Guillen, Chicago

Honourable mention: Cito Gaston, Terry Francona

NL manager of the Year

I can't believe I'm doing this. I've mocked Dusty myself over the years. Haven't we all? And if you look at how he's used his young pitchers this season, it's possible Baker himself learned something from the Wood-Prior experience. I really liked the way they got their butts kicked by the Cardinals in the big showdown a month ago, and didn't even let it break their stride. They just went right back to winning, while the Cardinals puffed out their chests and promptly imploded. Charlie Manuel has kept his gang on Atlanta's heels despite the mysterious disappearance of his offense. Bobby Cox is a placeholder for the moment, although he's done a very nice job in his swan song, patching for Chipper and Heyward. If Bud Black and his Padres can stop the bleeding and hold off the Giants, the Padres will have had a wonderful season, quite out of the blue. But if they throw it all away at this late date, no one will care at all.

1. Dusty Baker, Cincinnati
2. Charlie Manuel, Philadelphia
3. Bobby Cox, Atlanta

Honourable mention (for now!): Bud Black, Bruce Bochy

Naturally, all of this is merely meant to... what's the word I want? - provoke the lot of you...

Posted by Magpie on Monday, September 06 2010 @ 01:47 AM EDT.

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TamRa - Monday, September 06 2010 @ 03:50 AM EDT (#221991) #

I don't think Bautista is the MVP, but i think he ought to be third.

if you go by offense alone, he's arguably the third best contributor - if you factor in defense as you did with Cano - well, RF isn't an unimportant defensive position and neither is 3B (albeit he's not gonna win any gold gloves at third)

He has to have contributed more defensively than Kenerko.

As for the AL manager, i got to give Joe Maddon some props, no less than third place and I could see him winning it.

Only two hitters with an OPS over .800, team OPS is .739...One great and two very good starters, but it's not a staff that should have carried that batting order to one of the 2 or 3 best records in the game. Seattle and Oakland both have better starters ERA, and since the break their starter's ERA is ranked ninth in the AL.

Moe - Monday, September 06 2010 @ 06:08 AM EDT (#221992) #

The AL Cy debate is going to be fun. The East coast guy with all the wins vs. the guy with the better stats on a bad team no one in the media cares about at this point.

As for the NL Rookie award, I would vote for Jaime Garcia if he doesn't break down. He has been in the majors all year and done very well.

Thomas - Monday, September 06 2010 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#221994) #

You have Bud Black far too low on the NL Manager of the Year rankings. Whether or not the Padres throw it away, you need to take a look at this their roster again. I could maybe see an argument for Baker if the Padres do not win the division, but the Padres could lose nearly every game in September and he's still done a more impressive job than Manuel and Cox, IMO.

Chuck - Monday, September 06 2010 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#221995) #

Hear hear on the Bud Black love. The Padres are essentially Gonzalez, Latos and a crapload of overachieving relief pitchers (and, okay, Chase Headley, who I imagine is much better than Petco allows him to look). Reconciling the team on paper with it's on-field illusion has not been easy. That Black has had any success augmenting this nucleus with the likes of Eckstein and 14 guys named Hairston is nothing short of a miracle.

As for the MVP talk, I'd choose to elevate the likes of Beltre and Longoria ahead of Konerko for the defense they bring to the table. Even Mauer, given his position, could well rank ahead of Konerko. Similarly with Zimmerman in the NL. He'll get no love going up against the Ted Williams wannabes, but he deserves to be right in the mix. At least in a fair world.

The pitchers are interesting. Two pitchers are having Cy quality seasons that they are unlikely to replicate. Tim Hudson has been a BABIP savant. Clay Buchholz has a HR rate that would not look out of place in the 70's Astrodome. Two balloons are waiting to burst.

Felix Hernandez will be asking the voters to move even farther out of their comfort zones than they did with Greinke last year, all while turning a blind eye to Sabathia's likely 22 or so wins. Ain't gonna happen.

As for Halladay, his biggest threat might come from those voters who feel bad for Wainwright not winning last year. But Halladay does seem to have a much greater writer-friendly mystique now that he toils south of the 49th. And it may come down to who, if anyone, wins 20.

Mick Doherty - Monday, September 06 2010 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#221996) #

Mags, clarify for me ... is this presentation (a) your take on who WILL win or (b) your take on who SHOULD win or even (c) regardless, your ballot, if you had one?

For instance, I think Sabathia is going to run away with the AL CYA and would be very surprised if Hamilton (provided he gets healthy) and Pujols don't win the respective MVP awards. I'm not sure if any of those three should do so, and haven't given any thought at all as to how I'd vote, if given a ballot. So how does this shake out for you?

John Northey - Monday, September 06 2010 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#221997) #

The NL Cy is the most interesting to us Jay fans of course. I figure most voters start on wins & saves then look at ERA and K's and mystique.

Wins: Halladay tied for first - very good position, mixed with Wainwright and Jimenez
ERA: Only 6th at 2.36 but just 0.11 out of first (Latos). Top 6 are super tight, then a bit of a spread to Jiimenez (2.69) then the rest (Carp at 2.90). If the season ended today the top 7 in ERA would be the only contenders imo.
K's: 1st by 5 over Kershaw, 8 over Lincecum, 10+ over the rest. Both are over 3 in ERA and 5-6 wins behind Halladay so non-factors
Mystique: Halladay has the 'horse' factor, is a 'true ace', a 'winner'. Jimenez is pitching in Coors Field. Wainwright is also a workhorse & led in wins last year so some feel was robbed.

I see it as a 3 way race right now. Halladay/Wainwright (to voters) are super tight. Jimenez started fast and has the Colorado factor and the fewest losses (6 vs 10 for the other 2) but also has the fewest innings of the 3. Colorado & Philly are in playoff contention so Halladay & Jimenez could influence the faces the most thus be seen the most over the next month. I suspect if either pulls their team into the playoffs that'll be the last straw for voters.

92-93 - Monday, September 06 2010 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#221998) #

Votto - 92-32-98 12sb .321/.420/.594
Pujols - 93-35-96 12sb .309/.402/.584

With the Reds up 7g on the Cards for the NL Central, shouldn't one be very surprised if Votto DIDN'T win the MVP over Pujols?

Halladay leads the league in innings pitched, wins, strikeouts, complete games, and shutouts. At this point I think he's the clear front runner for NL CY.

Magpie - Monday, September 06 2010 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#221999) #

It's my tentative vote... but I'd be quite shocked if Hamilton won, pretty surpised if Pujols beats out Votto, and I'm not even so sure Sabathia will run away with it. Especially if Felix wins 4 more.

Magpie - Monday, September 06 2010 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#222000) #

I also think Bud Black's done a great job. But here's the thing - Gene Mauch did a great job in 1964. He really did. And no one cares. Having come this far, the Padres now have to win this thing. If they don't, the only thing anyone's going to remember is the 10 game losing streak that gave it all away.

Chuck - Monday, September 06 2010 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#222001) #

I'd be quite shocked if Hamilton won

You don't think the resurrection, albeit modest, of Hamilton's 2008 return-from-the-darkside narrative won't resonate with the voters in 2010? I can't help but think that it will. (Mick, how is it playing clap clap clap deep in the heart of Texas?) I think Cano's defensive position won't adequately factor into the voting calculus.

pretty surpised if Pujols beats out Votto

As would I. Nothing seems to bore the voters more than consistent greatness. If the stats are close, the voters will lean towards the other guy.

I'm not even so sure Sabathia will run away with it. Especially if Felix wins 4 more.

You may be right, but I think the voters felt dirty voting for Greinke last year and could only sleep at nights knowing that no one won 20. Sabathia is 8 wins ahead of Hernandez at this point. That gap will have to shrink a great deal.

Magpie - Monday, September 06 2010 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#222002) #

You don't think the resurrection, albeit modest, of Hamilton's 2008 return-from-the-darkside narrative won't resonate with the voters in 2010?

I dunno. That was so... 2008. Yesterday's papers! It's possible that I just can't fathom that anyone would actually vote for Hamilton over Cabrera, if all we're looking at is the bat (and with a LF and a 1B, that's most of what we're looking at.) And hey - Miguel's got his own redemption story, too!

Kasi - Monday, September 06 2010 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#222006) #

I'm surprised you rate Hamilton that low Magpie. Now his injury now does throw a wrench into things, especially if he isn't back for the last 10 days to 2 weeks of the season. But right now offensively Miggy and Hamilton are pretty neck and neck. Their OPS is pretty much tied, Hamilton has the better avg, Miggy slightly more home runs and rbis. But not substantially more. The Tigers aren't making the postseason and the Rangers are. Add in there that Hamilton is an outstanding defender and Cabrera a mediocre one would give the big edge to Hamilton. And while yes Hamilton is a LF, he has played a good quarter of his games in Center, and done it well. Now yeah it gets back to this injury, but as of today Hamilton is the clear cut MVP and has been for a while.

Thomas - Monday, September 06 2010 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#222009) #

Perhaps that will result in him losing the award to Baker in the end, but regardless of losing streak, I'd be shocked if he finished behind Manuel in the final standings on the Manager of the Year ballot.

Secondly, regardless of whether people only remember the losing streak, as per the lead-in, I thought this was your awards ballot. If it's your ballot, I'm surprised if you're saying that all you will remember is the losing streak and that, therefore, Black doesn't deserve a Top 3 finish, let alone the award.

Magpie - Monday, September 06 2010 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#222011) #

If the Padres right the ship and win the division, then Baker or Black. If they don't.... There's just no way. So it's all in flux. By the way, did anybody see the Reds coming this year? Weren't the Cardinals supposed to cruise to victory, by divine right or institutional momentum or something? I'm asking here - I never pay all that much attention to the NL Central for some reason...

I don't think I rate Hamilton low - I've got him third on my ballot, he's had a great year. He leads one of the old traditional offensive stats, although Cabrera's got the one that MVP voters always seem to like. Maybe it's that they're so close at first glance that you need to swoop in for a closer look, and when you do, Cabrera is just better. Not by a lot, but by enough. And this is despite the fact that Hamilton plays half his games in the best hitter's park in the AL, and has received a huge boost from it this season. His home numbers are .395/.446/.759 and he's hit 21 HRs in Texas, 10 on the road - Cabrera doesn't have a huge split, but has hit a little bit better away from Comerica, as you might expect. And I can't give Hamilton any kind of defensive bonus - he's a good defender, but (this year anyway) he's still just a left fielder. And Cabrera, as you might expect from a guy who was able to play third base regularly not too long ago, is a pretty good first baseman.

Kasi - Monday, September 06 2010 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#222012) #

I had to go double check, because I had heard from Dave Cameron about Cabrera that he was pretty mediocre defensively. I had to go check it. Cameron is right. He is mediocre. Hamilton however is an outstanding outfielder, whether he is playing CF or LF (he is well above average at both) I think the biggest point of difference is that Texas is going to make the playoffs, and the Tigers are not. That is always a pretty big boost for MVP voting, unless the numbers are substantially different. And they really aren't. I also don't think people care that much about home/road splits, at least compared to defense and especially being on a winning team.

Magpie - Monday, September 06 2010 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#222015) #

I also don't think people care that much about home/road splits

You're right. Well, they care if it's Coors, but that's about it. People just don't realize how great it is to hit in Arlington.

Mick Doherty - Monday, September 06 2010 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#222019) #

While that's true, Mags, I've found it interesting the past few days that the Rangers own broadcast teams (particularly Josh Lewin, who even echoed it on Fox's game of the week nationally) have been saying, essentially, "Even with Cruz back in the lineup, take Hamilton out of the middle of the order, and tthis team's offfense is maybe ordinary." Sure, Vlad is having a nice year. And sure, Kinsler is back now, though having a very up-and-down year. But overall, that's true. Hamilton may be the "most valuable player" to his own teams' identity and performance in all of MLB.

Mike Green - Tuesday, September 07 2010 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#222035) #

Fangraphs has Hamilton as the major league leader in value by a long ways, with him slightly better than Cabrera with the bat and as a much better defender at a more challenging position. Fangraphs treats Hamilton as of equal value defensively as Cano (taking into account both position and ability; you can certainly argue with that but Cano's edge has to be 20 runs for him to have equal value. I doubt that it is this large.

As for what the voters will actually do, Hamilton has a pretty compelling narrative (batting champ who hits 31 homers, plays good defence and leads team to division championship).

AWeb - Tuesday, September 07 2010 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#222037) #

With the lack of any compelling playoff races in the AL, it will all come down to a basic numbers game, which I think Hamilton probably wins this year. Cabrera has hit slightly better but Detroit just isn't very good, which loses him the "best player on a playoff team" voters. Cano needs to finish strong, which he hasn't so far this month. He's been putting up the same numbers month after month since April, his team has all but clinched a playoff spot already, and he's not leading his team in the "MVP" hitting stats (HR, RBI, Runs). He is leading the team in OBP and SLG, damn impressive on the Yankees. Good top three, I can see the last 20 games deciding it at this point, as no one seems to be totally obvious like Mauer last year.

I agree on the AL Cy Young, although Sabathia will make it a lot easier to vote for him if he closes the ERA gap a few more tenths. He'd seem to be the favourite to win, if not the most deserving.

The NL MVP - can't disagree, although like the AL, it will come down to September stats to see if either Votto or Pujols can pull away. If they are still very similar come the end, Votto wins on the "other guy won already" vote, if nothing else.

NL Cy Young - glad to see Hudson so high on your list, although Johnson still beats him out for me. And Halladay, barring a surprising September collapse, would seem the best pick.

Magpie - Wednesday, September 08 2010 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#222082) #

a much better defender at a more challenging position.

Left field is more challenging than first base? I suppose, but a bad first baseman will do an awful lot more damage than a bad left fielder. I would certainly say Cabrera plays a more important position...

Magpie - Wednesday, September 08 2010 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#222083) #

I suppose the main reason I'm not quite as enthusiastic about Hamilton is this:

Split   PA   AB   R    H  2B  3B  HR RBI  SB CS  BB  SO BAVG   OBP   SLG    OPS   TB  GDP  HBP  SH  SF  IBB  ROE  BAbip  tOPS+  sOPS+
Home   279  253  55  100  25   2  21  54   5  0  21  45 .395  .446  .759  1.205  192    5    3   1   1    0    3    .420   127    214
Away   280  254  39   83  15   1  10  43   3  1  22  50 .327  .382  .512   .894  130    4    2   0   2    5    2    .372    73    150

I think there's a pretty big Park Illusion at work that isn't being sufficiently recognized.

Mike Green - Wednesday, September 08 2010 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#222086) #

The Ballpark at Arlington has played as a 104-105 park for quite a number of years. Hamilton did much better at home in 2008 also, but absolutely struggled at home in 2009 while hitting well on the road. The Ballpark at Arlington undoubtedly favours LH hitters, but there is only so much you want to adjust for that. I certainly wouldn't rely on one season player statistics to make any adjustments. When Teixeira came 7th in the MVP race in 2005, his home/road stats had a comparable split to Hamilton's this year but at a much lower level.

Kasi - Wednesday, September 08 2010 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#222089) #

Hamilton has played a good quarter of his games in CF, and has played there with just as excellent defense as he has in left. And by all measurable standards Cabrera is a bad 1B defensively. Yes he used to play third, but he isn't a good or even average 1B. He's not in the awful range for defensive 1B with guys like Konerko, Fielder or Howard, but he is with people like Adam Dunn and Carlos Pena.

I do agree though that his road/home splits are troubling, but still given the lack of good candidates in the AL this year I think he'll win it easily provided he comes back soon from this injury. If he misses all of September though it might fall to Cano, although he's been average as of late too. It's possible Crawford could make a late surge if Tampa pulls out first in the AL East though.

James W - Wednesday, September 08 2010 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#222096) #

I'm doing no research whatsoever, but when did Carlos Pena become a bad defensive first baseman? I've always been under the impression that he's in the tier just below Youkilis and Teixeira.

Kasi - Wednesday, September 08 2010 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#222120) #

Pena is career -2.5 UZR/150 for his career. He had one outstanding year (2008) but otherwise has been well below average. Tex is about +5 and Youk +7.5. Cabrera in comparison is -1.6/150. Surprisingly Overbay isn't all that good at about +1.

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