Congratulations to JPA! I do wonder, however, whether he will be an effective hitter in The Show. He hit .301 (admittedly, with oodles of power) in Las Vegas; for the sake of comparison, Jason Lane hit .336, Mike McCoy hit .310, and a whole bunch of people I've never heard of have hit .320 to .340 in about 100 at-bats or so.

This suggests that a lot of air needs to be let out of Las Vegas hitting stats - which suggests that JPA is not likely to hit for a high average in Toronto. He might still hit for reasonable power and become the next Rod Barajas or John Buck, provided he's not getting his home runs solely off of mistake pitches (in which case, he's doomed to be the next John-Ford Griffin). But I'm not that excited about him. I hope to be proved wrong.

I also think that the Jays need to get out of Las Vegas PDQ. They need to have their AAA affiliate in a more neutral park so that they can do a better job of evaluating the Show-worthiness of their AAA hitters.

I see that Alan Ashby had some definite thoughts on JPA (and on Travis Snider).  He thinks that the Jays should be playing JPA a lot this month to see what they have got.  And he also argues that they should be playing Snider everyday.  He does it in his quiet, but effective way.  The link that I found to this part of his remarks is here: http://bit.ly/d7IkeJ

" He thinks that the Jays should be playing JPA a lot this month to see what they have got."

 

That seems pretty obvious to me and highlights Gaston's one massive weakness as a manager (with the "he should have pinch hit here, or brought the pitcher out an inning earlier" stuff Gaston is generally OK and all managers make mistakes there). Gaston, however, refuses to play young players. The Jays are a team that is out of it and looking to the future and playing in September. JPA is the Jay's catcher of the future. Yet, even with John Buck injured, Gaston preferred to play the 35-year old Jose Molina. The Jays should be playing JPA four times a week (and Snider every day) .

There's a transcript of Ashby's comments on the DJF site, and there are some contradictions in what he says.  On the catching situation, for example, Ashby gives a lot of praise to John Buck, talks about how much Buck has improved, and suggests that the Jays should bring back Buck in 2011 -- which clearly would limit JPA's playing time.  Here's his actual words about John Buck, according to the DJF transcript:  "All said, he’s been doing a great job on both sides of the game, and I agree, I might be very inclined to bring him back and have Arencibia fill some kind of a role."   Clearly, if JPA is "filling a role", then he is not the full-time catcher next season.  (Then, a few moments later, he is saying that the Jays need to give more playing time to JPA to know what they have for next year.  But -- and here's my question -- does a few weeks of playing time in September provide a full answer to the question of whether JPA should be a starter or a back-up next season?  Personally I don't think so.)

On the Snider question, Ashby also contradicts himself.  He wants Snider to get more playing time, but then he unleashes this little zinger:  "And what I'm fearful of is, maybe, as I watch him now really struggle at the plate, is that maybe it's not just because he's losing confidence—although I think that's what it is—but maybe he's not as good as I thought. But I don't honestly believe that, but at least the thought is starting to occur to me."   In other words, Ashby is raising the possibility that Snider is just not as good as we assumed he was.  So, while some of us are assuming that Snider is failing to improve his OPS (compared to last season) because of a lack of full-time playing time, Ashby admits there is a possible alternate explanation:  that Snider just isn't as good as we thought.

Where's the contradiction when talking about Snider?  He says Snider might not be as good as we'd all hoped, but he maintains that he's got to be out there quite often so the powers that be can find out.  Makes sense to me.

Agree with James. No contradiction there. Even if Snider isn't as good as we think he is, he is still a lot better then Lewis. Also agree with him on his other comments. They have wasted Snider's development with how they've treated him. Well only one month til Cito is gone.

Another thing to add here. We've all seen change of scenery trades, where a team mismanaged a talent and then shipped him off, only to see the player blossom somewhere else. Look at Brandon Morrow for a good example of that. I fear if we let Snider go after treating him how we have, we're just going to see the same as he breaks out elsewhere clubbing 40 home runs. Ashby is completely right. Snider has been mismanaged, just the same as the Mariners mismanaged Morrow. I'm sure Jack Z in Seattle was thinking what Ashby was thinking. Is Morrow really any good anymore, as good as we thought he was when we drafted him? So they jettisoned him for League and now are paying dearly for that mistake. I think Snider is playing on eggshells atm, not sure if he will play or not, where he will play, in what part of the order he will play and it is making him a very nervous player. Which isn't good for getting results. I don't understand how the manager who got these results from Bautista by giving him every day playing time can't do the same for Snider. But thankfully we only have one month left of this, and hopefully next year we have a coach who is committed to developing young players.

On a side note, I took it that Ashby's comment about JPA was a nod to him perhaps playing at 1B or some other position (DH possibly too) He is right though in that if they want to see how JPA is going to work out as a catcher, they need to actually play him there.

In summarizing Ashby's comments, perhaps I shouldn't have called them a "contradiction" but he is certainly showing more nuance, balance, and openness to various possible alternative explanations than many fans.  He is looking at all sides of the issue, not simply assuming that Snider and JPA will magically turn into superstars if they are played every day.

Of course they won't. But the point is we'll never know unless they are given that playing time. And given our other alternatives at those positions (especially LF) they should be playing. I honestly don't mind JPA not being given a lot of catching time now. He has a lot to learn and just being up in the majors with the other catchers will be a big help. Snider well I've said my piece on.

Age is still such an undervalued consideration, it seems.  It's ridiculous to come to conclusions about any hitter's upside until, at the very earliest, their age-26 season.  Which for Snider will be 2014.  I have no problem with him struggling until then, and by the same token, I have no problem with him sitting against tough lefties (or even because he's in a funk, or somebody else is hotter) over that time frame. 

He won't hit free agency until 2016.

Did we use Snider's second option this year, or did he only spend time in the minors on rehab? I think we used his second option up, which means we only control him through 2014.

There was no contradiction in Ashby's comments about Snider. He thinks Snider should be playing more and that his lack of playing time, or perhaps Snider's uncertainty about it, has contributed to him being tentative in the field. He acknowledges that Snider's offensive "struggles" may raise some doubt about his ability, but he says "I honestly don't believe that."

China: Does a few weeks of playing time in September provide a full answer to the question of whether JPA should be a starter or a back-up next season?  Personally I don't think so.

I can't imagine anyone disagreeing with you, China. Of course it won't provide a full answer.  Regardless of what he does now he will still have to come back next year and have a good spring training to begin  the season as either the starting catcher, a platoon catcher, a backup catcher/DH, whatever. On the other hand, he's a talented prospect and deserves at least some playing time now. It's the first step to coming up with the answer. Compare the situation now with how the Cubs handled Geovany Soto in 2007. Soto was a very similar prospect to Arencibia, a 24 year old power hitter with some defensive issues who tore up the PCL before getting called up in September. Even though the Cubs were in a pennant race and made the playoffs, and even though they had a good defensive veteran catcher in Jason Kendall, Soto started about half the games the rest of the season, including two in the playoffs. His play in that one month gave the Cubs confidence that he could be their top catcher the next year, and so rather than re-sign Kendall or shop for another veteran, they kept their version of Molina (Henry Blanco). The next season Soto was rookie of the year, even though he continued to have (and still has) some defensive issues. It's entirely up to Arencibia how well he does but he won't do anything if he's stuck on the bench.

Did we use Snider's second option this year, or did he only spend time in the minors on rehab? I think we used his second option up, which means we only control him through 2014.

Options and free agency are not connected like this. After putting a player on the 40 men roster, you can send him down in 3 different years (options). But he gets to be a FA after 6 full seasons on the 25 men roster. So Snider will most likely be a FA after 2015.

Bah, what was I thinking?!?

  What does a guy have to do to get a fair shot around here?  JPA is the MVP of the Pacific Coast League but John Buck will play in front of him in September so that (a) we have a chance to have a .500 record (talk about a Pyrrhic victory!) or (b) so that John Buck has a chance to win a contract in the off season???  Cito has done some very positive things this year (if he has taught the Prime Minister to be a home run hitter, he is Annie Sullivan to Johnny's Helen Keller!) but there can't be a more tailor-made situation (sorry about the superlative, all you grammarians out there and you know who you are) to give a young catcher with enormous potential, a decent try out.  Cito has given much to this organization but it might be time to give the controls to someone who is better at seeing the long range forecast.  Who is a better fit long-term for the Jays, Buck or Arencibia?  When would you rather find out about Arencibia's realistic potential, September of a so so season or April of a brand-new season?

there is a school of thought, pretty logical actually, that there is a huge difference for a catcher acclimating to the majors than any other defensive position.

the number of things he has to learn, about his own pitchers and the opposing hitters, is staggering.

It's not necessarily bad for him to take some time to learn those things before being expected to play most every day.

That said, he should definately be out there most of the time the last couple of weeks. Especially against non-contenders Baltimore and Seattle