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Features TDIB - AUG 26. Jays 6 - Yankees 3
The Jays take their third series of the year from the Yankees


It was all Vernon all the time last night.  Wells kicked things off with a triple and a run in the first, and followed with a two run dinger in the third and an rbi infield single in the fourth.   Aaron Hill, down in the 8th spot again had a good night for himself too,  with a homer, a couple of walks and a couple of runs scored.  On the pitching side Brett Cecil was excellent, he went eight strong,  giving up a couple of runs and striking out five.  Cecil has dominated the AL East this year.

Early in August there was a lot of talk that from August 2nd onwards the Jays opponents were all likely to be over .500, until a series against Baltimore in the middle of September.  The 'Great 38' Mike Wilner took to calling this run of games.  With last night's win, the Jays are now 12-9 in that stretch - not too shabby.

Elsewhere the Rays got Jeff Niemann back from the DL, but he had an almighty struggle, being pulled in the fourth after giving up ten runs.  Tampa Bay lost 12-3 and remain tied at the top of the AL East with New York.
Posted by Gwyn on Wednesday, August 25 2010 @ 10:00 PM EDT.
TDIB - AUG 26. Jays 6 - Yankees 3 | 33 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
wdc - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 07:14 AM EDT (#221456) #
Another impressive start by Cecil.  He seems to thrive on competition in the AL East. Marcum, Cecil, Morrow, and Romero.  It is a good group of starters.  Will Cecil be No. 1 among them by next year?  Is he No. 1 already?
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greenfrog - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 07:56 AM EDT (#221457) #
Impressive start by Cecil, but Romero is really number one at the moment (although Marcum has good stats and is a leader on the staff, while Morrow sometimes has ace-like starts and seems to be gradually elevating his game). The front four have been excellent as a group.

Also, Kevin Gregg is consolidating his 2010 campaign nicely. He's now saved 29, has only blown 4, has strong peripherals, and has been solid over the last two months (11 saves, 1 BS, 1.86 ERA in July and 1.23 ERA in August). If he keeps this up, some team will want him, Type B or no Type B.
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Jonny German - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#221458) #
Brett Cecil vs. The Beasts of the East
 
Date Opp Rslt IP H R ER BB K HR GSc
23-Apr @TBR W6-5 6.7 6 4 4 1 8 2 53
28-Apr BOS L0-2 6.0 5 1 1 1 3 0 60
4-Jun NYY W6-1 8.0 5 1 1 1 5 0 72
10-Jun @TBR W3-2 6.7 3 1 1 3 2 1 63
2-Jul @NYY W6-1 6.0 4 1 1 6 5 0 59
6-Aug TBR W2-1 7.0 4 1 1 2 9 0 72
20-Aug @BOS W16-2 6.7 9 2 2 3 6 0 51
25-Aug NYY W6-3 8.0 7 2 2 2 5 1 63
 
To sum up: Excellent.
 
Slightly longer summary: averaging 6.87 innings with a 2.13 ERA. Zero unearned runs. No start with fewer than 6 innings, no game score under 50. Only 1 start with more hits than innings, only 1 start with more than 2 earned runs. 2 games where the K/BB ratio got ugly, but only 1 run in each of those.
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Moe - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 08:34 AM EDT (#221459) #
Also, Kevin Gregg is consolidating his 2010 campaign nicely. He's now saved 29, has only blown 4, has strong peripherals, and has been solid over the last two months (11 saves, 1 BS, 1.86 ERA in July and 1.23 ERA in August). If he keeps this up, some team will want him, Type B or no Type B.

Type B is not a problem since that doesn't cost any picks for the new team. However, I'm thinking the Jays might actually pick up the option. After the buy-out, it would only be 3.75m. If Downs and Frasor are both gone, that seems almost necessary.  Of course the decision would likely have to be made before the Jays know whether Downs and Frasor stay.

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Magpie - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 08:52 AM EDT (#221460) #
The Jays have 36 games left. Only 13 of them are away from home - to this point, Toronto has played more road games than any team in the majors. They're actually a little more likely to win 90 games than they are to finish below .500, and could we have a show of hands from everyone who saw that coming back in March. (Although they're obviously most likely to end up winning the usual 86 or 87 games.)

That's also 7 trips through the rotation after Romero goes tonight. At the pace they've been working, that means the starters should finish with totals roughly like:

Romero: 33 starts, 220 IP
Marcum: 31 starts, 195 IP
Morrow: 31 starts, 177 IP
Cecil: 29 starts, 184 IP
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lexomatic - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#221461) #
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Avtk1KxKQKxP9OOIRgLaYpsRvLYF?slug=jp-marlinsfinancials082410
in unrelated news I hope Jeffrey Loria gets sued by the state of Florida

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Greg - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#221463) #

This has probably been covered before, but speaking of compensation.  I see Frasor is on the cusp of A and B according to mlbtraderumors.  I assume we're hoping he gets knocked down to B, since I don't see anyone signing him as an A.  Downs seems like a possibility though. 

Do the Jays chicken out and not even offer arbitration to Frasor? 

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John Northey - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#221481) #
Hopefully not an issue since the radio (590) was reporting that the Yankees are sniffing around at Frasor and Downs right now. They need to prep for the playoffs and Rivera and Mitre are the only relievers over 10 IP with walk rates below 3 while only Boone Logan and Rivera have solid ERA's - not the ideal measure for a reliever, but with just 2 of them above 110 they have issues.

Frasor is hardly ideal, but mix him and Downs together and that could be a very good mix for the Yanks with Rivera when the playoffs start. For the Yanks I figure a pen of Rivera/Kerry Wood/Downs/Joba/Frasor/whoever would be solid for the playoffs. They also need rotation help but I doubt the Jays will help there (Marcum maybe but he'd cost the Yanks an arm and leg or so). They'd like another catcher I suspect too but, again, doubt they'd pay what the Jays would charge.
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Forkball - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#221482) #
Do the Jays chicken out and not even offer arbitration to Frasor?

Maybe, but it's not the end of the world to have a solid pitcher, who doesn't have much of an injury history, on a one-year deal.

Basically it depends on whether they want the player or are more interested in the compensation.  But as we saw this year, if you want a player you don't need a high draft pick to get them (Thon, who they gave late first round money).
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R Romero Vaughan - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#221490) #

Certainly Downs and almost certainly Frasor won't get to the Yankees in the waiver order for us to even be able to negotiate a deal with them - same for Marcum who would be claimed by a a bunch of teams (even those not in any contention)

I really hope they offer Frasor arb and every indication on the new appraoch suggests they will (no more Delgado situations please)

More picks = more options if people fall, although it is true that if you go over-slot you have a lot mroe options with later picks.

I wonder what the market for Buck will be this winter. Seems hard to predict but I think we should at least consider bringing him back all things considered - especially if there aren't 3 year offers open to him.

Hard not to be as positive about this team + the general direction/ approach as I have neen for 10 + years....

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DaveB - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#221493) #
Jonny, thanks for putting up that table of Cecil vs. the AL Beasts.  I doubt if any other starter from TB, Bos or NY has done better. Eight for eight quality starts according to Game Score and an average GS of 62, which is a nice metric but doesn't take into account quality of competition. Great numbers vs. any AL Division's top three teams, even better considering the opposition.

I just checked Jon Lester's starts vs. NY, TB, Tor. His game scores in eight starts: 42, 32, 84, 66, 74, 60, 68, 2 (shelled by Jays last time out); five quality starts, average score of 54. Sabathia vs. TB, Bos, Tor: 38, 80, 46, 67, 49, 46, 65. Three quality starts, average score of 56.
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TamRa - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#221499) #
Check out Morrow's totals for the last 17 starts (i.e. about half a seasn for a front of the rotation guy)

7-3, 3.61, 1.24 WHIP, 102.1 - 91 - 36 - 119,
.239/.311/.374/.684 (batting against)

that puts him right there in the same neighborhood with the other three.

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dan gordon - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#221509) #

The Jays' record with Marcum, Romero, Morrow and Cecil starting is 54-41.  With the other 5 guys they've used (Tallet, Litsch, Rzepczynski, Eveland and Mills) it's 12-19.  Plug another starter in there who's the calibre of the big 4 and they're right there with Boston.  Assuming a couple of those extra wins are vs NY and TB, they could be only 3-4 games out of 1st place.  I see no reason to think those 4 guys can't repeat next year, so if they can fix that 5th starter situation, next year could be very interesting.  I hope the team doesn't view 2011 as mainly another development type of year - they're really close.  Of course, if they had Halladay in the rotation this year along with the big 4 ...

I think they should keep Gregg.  Aside from a bit of a bad stretch a couple of months ago when he may have been overused a little, he's been very good.  I wouldn't mind keeping Buck, too.  Somebody who couold get on base and be the leadoff hitter would be great - Lewis is a decent player, but his OBP isn't good enough for a leadoff hitter.

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Chuck - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#221512) #
Somebody who couold get on base and be the leadoff hitter would be great

Escobar's career OBP is .366.
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Jonny German - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#221514) #
Lewis has caught the local disease and is having an off year for OBP. For his career he's a .350 on-base guy, and people who can be counted on to do better than that year in and year out tend to make a ton of cash.
 
That said, I'm not sure there's room for him in 2011 alongside his fellow lefty-swinging defensively-challenged buddies Adam Lind and Travis Snider. Mastroianni is exactly the type of 4th outfielder this team needs - righty, very fast, competent in centre, high OBP. But it remains to be seen if Mastro can do the OBP part in the bigs.
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dan gordon - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#221515) #

Escobar's career OBP is .366

True.  I'm thinking of him as the #2 hitter.  I think it's important to have good OBP guys in the first 2 spots in the order, right in front of your (presumably) best power hitters in the 3 and 4 spots.  If they could get a LF or 3B with a similar OBP to Escobar (or better) and bat him leadoff and bat Escobar #2, it would give the team more guys on base for Bautista/Wells/Lind or whomever occupies the power spots in the order.

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Chuck - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#221516) #
That said, I'm not sure there's room for him in 2011

If Overbay and Encarnacion both leave, does that not free up a spot in LF or DH?
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Jonny German - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#221519) #
Yup. But absent a major trade or a big free agent signing I'd be inclined to keep EE and offer Overbay arbitration.
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ayjackson - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#221521) #

If Overbay and Encarnacion both leave, does that not free up a spot in LF or DH?

No.  I doubt Snider or Lind can play first base competantly.  You could put Bautista at 1B, but then you'd have Lewis-Wells-Snider in the OF, and I think AA is trying to build a better defence than that.

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Magpie - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#221523) #
Escobar's career OBP is .366

And as a leadoff hitter (80 games, 78 starts for the Braves) his career OBP is .370.
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Kasi - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#221528) #

Snider is sitting again tonight. What a joke this is turning out to be. I like Lewis and all, but he has no future on this team and this team isn't making the playoffs this year.

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Gerry - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#221534) #

For Thursday's opener of a four-game weekend set with the Tigers, Snider was out of the lineup once again. It marked the third game in the last four that Snider -- considered an integral part of the club's future -- was on the bench for Toronto.

Gaston said it has been difficult to determine how to spread the playing time in left field between Snider and Fred Lewis. Lewis has had some starts as a designated hitter, but that takes Adam Lind out of the lineup. Gaston also prefers to keep Jose Bautista in right field and the manager noted that Snider and Lewis are better in left anyway.

 

Let me paraphrase that for you.  "Development be damned, I want to win now.  I am retiring in 35 days and I want to make sure I leave on a winning note."

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Magpie - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#221535) #
The players want to win, too. You simply can't say "screw winning, we're into player development." You just can't do that. Not even if you're retiring in 35 days (and if you're not retiring in 35 days, there's absolutely no way you'd even consider it.)

That said, I'd sit Lewis and play Snider, because I think Snider is a better player than Lewis. I also think Lewis has no future with this organization, but that's beside the point.
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ayjackson - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#221536) #
It's like people think Snider's no good.  He's better than half the line-up, if not 80% of it.
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Kasi - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#221537) #
Gerry if he wants to retire on a winning note, by all accounts he should sit Lind and Hill, play Mac every day and play both Lewis and Snider. Snider is a superior player to Lewis and has been since Lewis' hot first month. I still think it is as much Cito wanting to play his vets as anything else. Because if it was the "best team", Snider by all accounts deserves to be there.
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Kasi - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#221538) #
Also shows that Cito was being less then honest about his ideas about giving Bautista time at third or Lind time at first. It was never a consideration for him and Lewis/Snider is just a platoon role. And yes teams do make moves a lot about developing young talent rather then hiding them behind vets. This is just another wasted year of development time for Snider. There is no moral victory in reaching 84 wins instead of 78. Not that that really matters because Snider is better then the guy he's losing at bats too.
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Magpie - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#221539) #
[Snider's] better than half the line-up, if not 80% of it.

I'm pretty sure he will be, and probably soon. But I absolutely don't know that he is yet. Mind you, I'd like to find out. But this year, he's been clearly better than Hill and Lind. And that is all.
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Magpie - Thursday, August 26 2010 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#221541) #
It was never a consideration for him

I think it was a consideration, and he did indeed give it a try, but I don't think he liked what happened. Well, who would? The outfield defense goes to hell when Bautista goes to the infield, and the infield defense falls off pretty drastically when Lind replaces Overbay. Not to mention a pitcher ending up on the DL trying to catch one of Lind's tosses to the bag. I've never seen that before, and I hope I never see it again.
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jgadfly - Friday, August 27 2010 @ 02:32 AM EDT (#221546) #

          So when is enough, enough ? ... --------- "Lineup shuffle puts Snider on bench" ... so read Jordan Bastian's headline .

          "I haven't done too good a job with it, really," Gaston said on Thursday.

          "As far as trying to rotate people, it's not easy," Gaston said. ... " Okay, so I'm starting to see why no one else has hired two time World Series Champion Monsieur Gaston as a manager .

           "... so right now it looks like I'll play one a couple of days and play the other one a couple of days and go from there."

           "...It might end up being that way for a while. Then, once in a while, they might get to play three days."                    So, this benefits Snider how?

            Okay, so if I buy the logic that has been applied to the Adam Loewen renovation ;    ' it takes reps , it takes maybe 600 at bats to figure out whether he can hit ...'      So can anybody tell me why their future franchise player , Travis Snider is sitting on the bench of a team all but eliminated from post season and is doing so with only a career number 496 Major League at bats in what is only his153rd game (and how many of those games did he sit)? The future franchise player is sitting while a guy who was purchased for $75,000 is taking 'at bats' away from him because Clarence supposedly wants to showcase him so he can find a job next year .

          Also, isn't it interesting that the Tigers young centrefielder Austin Jackson in his first big league season and in his 118th game is now only 10 career at bats behind Snider ? The Tigers are showing confidence in Jackson and surprise, surprise Jackson is playing with confidence.  Why do the Jays keep messing with Snider's head ?

         Doesn't this situation really beg a poll ? Should AA tell Cito ... 'Enough is enough ! Play Snider and sit someone else (Lewis, Encarnacion, Overbay, Lind,) or I'll arrange an early tee off time for you ! "

         Yes or No ?

         My apologies for originally posting this in another thread.   It fits better here. 

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bpoz - Friday, August 27 2010 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#221581) #
Great question wdc...is Cecil already #1. I like Cecil's talent AND that he said earlier in the year that this year he fears no team but that was not the case last year.
I love his fighting spirit. J Key hardly ever got rattled but D Steib while never losing his confidence clearly IMO got annoyed and exhibited that glare of his.
Cecil is MY #1 but all 4 are so close ie flirting with no-hitters.
If all 4 break camp with the Jays next year, who is the #5. If Zep or a completely healthy Litch is #5 then in the back of my mind based on my "thought process with no sound reasoning" methods I strongly conclude that the #5 will pitch better than one of the top 4. This based on surprises like A Gon, J Bautista that are positive surprises and Josh Beckett who is a negative surprise.
Magpie I did not see 90 wins, I weakly hoped for 88 wins based on no clear reasoning. But how about your 86 or 87 wins... are you serious... If you seriously believe 86 or 87 wins then WOW. I would be real happy with 84, and I think I would be disappointed with 81 wins.
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TamRa - Friday, August 27 2010 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#221610) #
As of right now, assuming health, there are five obvious competitors for the #5:

Litsch
Richmond
Hill
Zep
Mills

the dark horse is if Drabek comes to ST and blows the minds of the evaluators, he might pass them all. But, IMO, he'd have to do that - because other wise there are service time implications to holding him back to mid-June or so.

Just depends on how those six guys perform in ST next year.


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Mike Green - Friday, August 27 2010 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#221612) #
Teams that intend to compete should not worry about Super 2 status, but can reasonably worry about service time years.  This means that the time frame for calling up Drabek would be the end of April, unless the club does not intend to give it a shot in 2011. 
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bpoz - Saturday, August 28 2010 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#221618) #
M Green when the time is right I would be most interested in "Do you think the Jays can compete in 2011" views. I think this could be a hot topic, especially with a good finish.
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TDIB - AUG 26. Jays 6 - Yankees 3 | 33 comments | Create New Account
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