Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - 21 August 2010: 16-2

21 August 2010: 16-2

Not much to say after that one.

The good guys beat down the Red Sox, 16-2. Career game for Lyle Overbay, who went 4-5 with 7 RBI, including two Monster shots off Jon Lester. Everything worked out well. Jose Bautista homered, and John McDonald homered. The Jays are now 4-9 against Boston. Incidentally, the Jays are exactly 4 games behind Boston.

Tonight, Ricky Romero looks to keep the ball rolling against Daisuke Matsuzaka. Boston utterly owns Romero. He's made 7 starts against the Sox. They have lasted an average of 4.4 innings. Boston has batted .368/.464/.616 off him in those games. They've run into a bunch of outs - in particular, they are 2/6 stealing bases - yet Romero still has a ghastly 8.51 ERA against the Red Sox. He's accumulated -1.24 WPA against Boston (and +3.95 against everyone else). It's mostly bad news everywhere.

I think this was probably dumb luck at first, but now that the dumb luck has accumulated, the Sox have become firmly lodged inside Romero's head. However, there is some hope: Romero has had positive WPA in two of his Boston starts, both late in 2009. He didn't make it out of the sixth inning either time, but he did put up a combined GB% of 78.1 in those two games. You'd think inducing grounders might be the goal tonight, especially in Fenway.

Red Sox -130, first pitch 7:10.

Posted by Alex Obal on Saturday, August 21 2010 @ 06:45 AM EDT.

21 August 2010: 16-2 | 31 comments | Create New Account

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scottt - Saturday, August 21 2010 @ 07:10 AM EDT (#221246) #

"Good night for the managers and coaches to kind of lay back and relax a little bit," Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston said.

My jaw hit the floor when I read that.

Chuck - Saturday, August 21 2010 @ 07:26 AM EDT (#221248) #

Fun with small numbers: John McDonald is now slugging at a better than league average clip (.451 to .410). 11 of his 23 hits have been for extra bases (his career rate is just 25%).

TimberLee - Saturday, August 21 2010 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#221251) #

What was surprising about Gaston's comment? I mean, he should have said "lie back", but that's a common mistake, and the rest of it seems sensible enough.

Flex - Saturday, August 21 2010 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#221252) #

This is the Internet. The rule is A.B.A.

Always Be Appalled

smcs - Saturday, August 21 2010 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#221253) #

So while watching the Jays-A's game on Monday, Boof Bonser came into the game. Of course. the announcers made the obligatory comments about the lopsided trade that he was involved in between San Francisco and Minnesota. I was thinking about that trade...is it the most lopsided trade of all time? The Twins have gained something like 60 WAR (according to bbref) on this trade, but WAR can't really tell the full story. I mean, the Braves gained something like 70 WAR by trading Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz, but the Tigers were looking for a premier starter for the stretch drive, and got just that, so it's somewhat different. To really be a lopsided deal (in my mind) involves a complete misevaluation of the talent given up for the talent received. So what has been more lopsided? Wells-Sirotka (literally trading something for nothing)? Bedard-the entire Seattle minor league system? Anderson-Bagwell? Davis-Schilling/Harnisch/Finley? It gets more difficult when you consider the view of the trade as it happened. I mean, the Diaz-Bautista deal was...unexpected, but, looking back, we can say that the Jays won that trade, by a lot.

So I'm laying down the gauntlet for a lazy Saturday, what has been the most lopsided trade?

TamRa - Saturday, August 21 2010 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#221255) #

I don't think Wells/Sirotka is even in the conversation

losing out because of an injury is not the same as mis-evaluating talent.

yes, there'sthe whole dispute about who knew what and when regarding the injury but it's still not the same, IMO.

I'd sooner suggest Loaiza/Young, for instance...

wdc - Saturday, August 21 2010 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#221258) #

My boyhood team and still my National League team was the St. Louis Cardinals. From that perspective, the best trade for me but perhaps the worst for Cubs fans was the trade of Ernie Broglio for Lou Brock. I will admit that at first I was a little disappointed. I had Broglio's baseball card and he seemed to be a good pitcher for the Redbirds. But for a 14 year old boy, that disappointment disappeared quickly as Brock turned out to be such a great player: hitting, stealing bases, fielding. I have fond memories of the Sports Illustrated cover during the World Series against the Yankees that year: it showed Brock poised to steal at first base in the bright red and white of the Cardinals' uniform. Broglio did not do much for the Cubs, if I remember correctly. In my boyhood memory at least, Brock destroyed the Yankees that year (with a little help from Bob Gibson . . .)

mathesond - Saturday, August 21 2010 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#221259) #

To quote Annie Savoy, "...now who can forget about Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas, for God's sake?"

Mick Doherty - Saturday, August 21 2010 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#221261) #

Regarding active players in one-sided deals:

The Florida Marlins traded Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers for Dallas Trahern, Burke Badenhop, Eulogio de la Cruz, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Mike Rabelo.

Willis was only 2-8 as a Tiger before being traded this year for Billy Buckner, who has not yet made it out of Toledo. And maybe the kids Florida got, especially Maybin and Miller, will be okay. But when Cabrera hits #764 in about 15 years, this will be seen as one of the most lopsided trades of all time.

Probably even worse than Josh Hamilton for Edinson Volquez and Danny Herrera. That one looked even early on when Volq went 17-6 in his first year as a Red but in the three years since, he and Herrera are a cpmbined 12-10. Advantage, Texas.

Dave Till - Saturday, August 21 2010 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#221262) #

Other than the E____ L____ trade (I still can't bear to utter his name), the worst Jays trade is probably Alan Ashby for Mark Lemongello and spare parts. Ashby went on to another 10+ years in the bigs. Lemongello didn't.

It's been widely reported that Peter Bavasi was offered Ron Guidry for Bill Singer but turned it down because Singer was a marquee player. I don't know whether this is true.

Magpie - Saturday, August 21 2010 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#221263) #

Almost a challenge trade of two aging shortstops - but the Phillies had to throw in a minor leaguer as well. From Ivan DeJesus' baseball-reference page:

January 27, 1982: Traded by the Chicago Cubs to the Philadelphia Phillies for Larry Bowa and Ryne Sandberg.

Magpie - Saturday, August 21 2010 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#221264) #

It's been widely reported that Peter Bavasi was offered Ron Guidry for Bill Singer

I always heard that Gillick (who came out of the Yankees' system) made the deal, and Bavasi vetoed it because Singer was on the cover of the very first Media Guide.

Worst Jays trade? I'd like to nominate the deal that brought Carlos Garcia and Orlando Merced here (a rare case of subtraction by addition!), but I think Dan Plesac came aboard in the same exchange.

Hmm. I remember the good ones. Phil Huffman for Rance Mulliniks. Dale Murray for Fred McGriff. Junior Felix for Devon White...

TamRa - Saturday, August 21 2010 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#221265) #

thing about the Garcia deal is that the "prospects" we dealt were almost entierly washouts too...and Pleasac DID bring value (and Merced got us another dose of Fernandez later didn't he?)

greenfrog - Saturday, August 21 2010 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#221266) #

Weird game. If Overbay hadn't jogged leisurely from first to second when McDonald doubled in the 4th, the Jays might have won the game in 9 innings. Maybe he forgot there were two outs? Lyle had a nice night otherwise, but that was a costly mistake.

greenfrog - Saturday, August 21 2010 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#221267) #

Also, this might have been the kind of game that made the Braves want to trade Escobar. The errors didn't end up costing the Jays, but missing two routine plays in a big game (on top of an 0-for-5)? I also wasn't crazy about game one, where Escobar stood around admiring what he thought was a home run to left, but in fact was a fairly ordinary fly ball hit off the Green Monster. He made it to second base, but it wasn't pretty. Those kinds of antics are going to catch up to him in Toronto, if he doesn't get his act together.

dan gordon - Saturday, August 21 2010 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#221268) #

The Giants have made a lot of horrendous trades. In Bill James' 1982 Abstract, he referred to the Giants as "dispensers of free ballplayers". James scored all mlb trades from 1963 to 1972 using his value approximation method. He said the Giants score was "270- 717, a deficit of a staggering 447 points, enough to turn 7 last-place teams into pennant winners". Think about that statement for a minute to let it fully sink in.

They traded Orlando Cepeda for Ray Sadecki, Garry Maddox for Willie Montanez, Matty Alou for Joe Gibbon, Felipe Alou for basically nothing, Randy Hundley & Bill Hands for Lindy McDaniel, George Foster for Frank Duffy, Gaylord Perry for Sam McDowell, Dave Kingman for nothing, Ron Hunt for Dave McDonald, Manny Mota for Joey Amalfitano, Jose Cardenal for Jack Hiatt, and many others.

Of course there is always Babe Ruth for $125,000 and a $300,000 loan. Pretty hard to be any worse than that.

Dewey - Sunday, August 22 2010 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#221276) #

Did you see that Matt Stairs broke Cliff Johnson's old record for pinch-hit homers, at 21? Good for Matt.

China fan - Sunday, August 22 2010 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#221277) #

I see that John McDonald is playing 2B today and Aaron Hill is on the bench. So the Jays have opted for the player with the higher OPS and SLG.

scottt - Sunday, August 22 2010 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#221283) #

An away afternoon game following a rain delay is not a bad time to rest a regular.

China fan - Monday, August 23 2010 @ 05:30 AM EDT (#221294) #

Obviously the Jays were just resting a regular. My point, of course, is the irony that Hill would have a lower OPS than John McDonald on Aug. 22 of any year. Nothing could help the Jays more, in 2010 or 2011, than a return to 2009 form by Aaron Hill.

John Northey - Monday, August 23 2010 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#221298) #

Don't know if anyone else here gets the Jays newsletter by email but they misspelled 'Stieb' on their subject line - spelled it Steib (reversed the ie). Inside they have it right but that is a big oops when you are trying to promote his bobblehead (free on Sunday to first 10k).

JohnL - Monday, August 23 2010 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#221306) #

Don't think I've seen any mention of the cover story in this week's Eye Weekly (a Toronto news/entertainment weekly that rarely covers any sports). Article is here.

The cover illustration features the original Blue Jay logo shedding a tear, and the thrust is that the Jays won't spend money to build a winner & crowds are disappearing. Featured are discussions with two of the Drunk Jays Fans.

Craig B - Monday, August 23 2010 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#221308) #

Update on Randy Ruiz - he is hitting .249/.307/.416 in 215 PAs for Rakuten of the Pacific League (the weaker league in NPB).

R Romero Vaughan - Monday, August 23 2010 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#221310) #

Moderately amusing spat between Griffin and Cox in the Star.

Sorry to help publicise some very poor articles but an interesting insight into the sports media world in any event

http://thestar.blogs.com/thespin/2010/08/baseball-same-old-same-old.html

"Read my colleague Richard Griffin today. Whatever you do Griff, don't actually deal with the issue. Thats how the boys of summer got away with this stuff in the first place. Never any shortage of cheerleaders and enablers in that sport."

John Northey - Monday, August 23 2010 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#221312) #

Can't be bothered with giving a click through to what must be a poorly done article in Eye. The Jays have spent a lot on development this year, little on ML free agents who would've done nothing to make the team win.

Think about it - would you rather have...

Scutaro (34 - 89 OPS) or Escobar (27 - 103 OPS+ in Toronto, 81 overall)?

Rick Ankiel (30 - 91 OPS+) or Jason Bay (31 - 103 OPS+) or Snider (22 - 104 OPS+) plus Lewis (29 - 112 OPS+) or Bautista (29 - 157 OPS+).

Any of the free agent pitchers, or Romero (25-116 ERA+) or Marcum (28-110) or Cecil (23-104) or Morrow (25-91). I guess if they filled in that 5th slot (Litsch/Eveland/Rzep/Tallet/Mills) that would've been good but odds are Cecil would've been in AAA instead, mixed into the 5th start stuff after Eveland/Tallet/Litsch.

Gregg we weren't too high on but 27 saves and 4 blown is pretty good while Camp & Downs are solid setup men.

Look at Buck/Molina behind the plate - most of us were anti those two or 'meh' pre-season and they go on to hit for OPS+ of 121/101.

I really don't see where the Jays could've blown the wad to make this into a playoff team this year. Halladay would've been nice to keep, but that is about it and we did seem to get good value for him.

China fan - Monday, August 23 2010 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#221316) #

John, those are all good points -- I agree that the Jays wouldn't have benefited from free agents this season. But you should still read the "Eye Weekly" article -- it's more nuanced and intelligent than you might have assumed. It looks at all aspects of the ownership question, it looks at AA's strategy this season, and it doesn't just assume that higher spending will solve everything.

Dewey - Monday, August 23 2010 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#221317) #

Can't be bothered with giving a click through to what must be a poorly done article in Eye.

Whooa, John. You're willing to dismiss it without having read it? I'm surprised. And besides, it's a good article, in my view. Thanks to JohnL for the link. I recommend that people have a look (then dismiss it, if you wish).

John Northey - Monday, August 23 2010 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#221320) #

The headline of 'Jays not spending enough' made me go 'must be crap - standard line of spending $$$ on payroll = winning with no regard for developing from within'. Certain things make me just ignore articles. Much like seeing Griffin writing about our ex-GM as I think we all know exactly what one of those articles will end up reading like.

Checking the Eye article now that some have said it isn't what it first appears...

Yeah, pretty good article actually. Not a fan of Drunk Jays Fans (tons of swear words makes me log off - if you have to swear to get a point across it isn't a good point) thus that pushed me away too. Covers the decline, points out that when Rogers did open the pockets it was still not in the top 1/3rd of the majors, but that the team is now building for real rather than the 1/2 way method used in the JP days (as many have said, the quick success in 2003 might have cost the Jays long term).

christaylor - Monday, August 23 2010 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#221321) #

Having read the article -- it was what I thought it would be, an overview of the Jays last decade plus for those who don't really follow baseball. Nothing discussed in there that has been discussed on this site and others in a more detailed and thoughtful way...

That being said, that the Jays are getting a cover story in an alternative weekly is probably a good sign, as I doubt the large portion of the readership of eye really thinks much about the Jays.

Dewey - Monday, August 23 2010 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#221326) #

Yes, that�s the point, don�t you think, Chris? The Eye (or is it just Eye?) and Da Box are different places altogether. But what the Jays need is many more places than the Box following them with interest. Once there�s a buzz about the Blue Jays again, with stories about them in unlikely places, and the �casual fan� is nosing around again--that is indeed a good sign.

Gerry - Monday, August 23 2010 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#221327) #

Even though it worked out Vernon was up to his usual tricks in the first inning. Bautista walks on 4 pitches, Vernon goes to 2-0 then swings at ball three leading to the double play. What happened to take a pitch from a pitcher who can't throw strikes, or only swing if it's down the middle?

21 August 2010: 16-2 | 31 comments | Create New Account

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