Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Important Current News!

The TDIB for tomorrow is something completely different, but there's a lot of Very Important Very Current Blue Jays news, and there needs to be a thread for this news. But you must click through to find out what exactly that news is!

The Jays signed their top pick, Deck McGuire, for 2 million bucks.
They also signed Sam Dyson and Griffin Murphy
Ladies and gentlemen, Shaun Marcum! He threw his first complete game allowing only one run. It used to be a no-hitter (as all pitching performances once were, I guess) before Conor Jackson broke it up with a seventh-inning home run.
I returned home after a run in a semi-conscious state (it was my first run in months, seriously), turned on the radio, and promptly heard Alan Ashby give a whole seemingly prepared speech about the history of Oh Henry. What was up with that? Oh man, was I ever confused.
Jose Bautista, 37 home runs! According to the radio guys, it was a legitimate home run off the foul pole that all the players assumed was a legitimate home run, but the umpire disagreed. Nevertheless, the A's didn't bother trying to throw Bautista out, so he came around for an inside-the-parker.
Ladies and gentlemen, Jose Molina! A 4-4 night for the intrepid back-up! J.P. Arencibiwho?

Posted by Dave Rutt on Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 12:11 AM EDT.

Important Current News! | 80 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Kelekin - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 12:33 AM EDT (#220953) #

Thanks for the thread.

I heard AA's press conference or conference call was supposed to be happening now, any word on where to hear this?

sam - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 12:34 AM EDT (#220954) #

I think a Arencibia/Molina backstop next year would be nice.

Dave Rutt - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 12:35 AM EDT (#220955) #

If your source is the same as mine (Bastian's twitter) it looks like a chat with reports that we'll presumably hear about when said reporters summarize it.

Dave Rutt - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#220956) #

And when I said reports, of course I meant reporters.

Kelekin - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 12:39 AM EDT (#220957) #

I'd be very curious as to why we couldn't get Shreve or Cotto, especially considering Shreve lost his football scholarship and most people assumed Cotto would sign throughout the entire process. There are a lot of plusses, but I think it would've been nice to get Cotto. He's faster than Thon.

sam - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 12:41 AM EDT (#220959) #

Bryant and Vander Tuig did not sign and both will be going to college.

Dave Rutt - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#220961) #

If you want to hear about the conference call, listen in to the JaysTalk - Wilner will give an update if the call wraps up before he's off the air.

sam - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#220962) #

Cudos to the Jays and AA for getting the deals done but I really hope they now return to the international market

brent - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 12:52 AM EDT (#220963) #

Logan Ehlers turned down $800,000. Link

I wonder how many players really want a million to not go to college. I have to think that they are delusional (especially when it comes to pitchers).

sam - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 12:56 AM EDT (#220964) #

It sounds like somebody spooked Ehlers. Ah well, hopefully he does well at Nebraska and he gets re-drafted.

ayjackson - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#220965) #

I hope his arm falls off and he graduates in three years with a business admin degree and gets a job in the mailroom of Mutual of Omaha.

Kelekin - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#220966) #

�For an 18-year-old boy, that�s a pretty tough thing to go to the minors.� << Because obviously, it's not tough for a 20 or 21 year old.

But seriously, he turned down 800k? I know his stock went up this summer, but he was nowhere worth 800k before the summer.

jmoney - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 01:09 AM EDT (#220967) #

Ah man I could have seen this one hitter. If only I had access to this channel that doesn't exist in my region.

Kelekin - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 01:11 AM EDT (#220968) #

jmoney: That's how I felt. I don't even get digital cable, so I'm really going to be out of luck half the year.

jgadfly - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 01:22 AM EDT (#220969) #

RE: Logan Ehlers turned down $800,000. ... So this must be bad news for the Pirates ...

Kelekin - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 01:28 AM EDT (#220970) #

The Pirates? What?

Moe - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 02:04 AM EDT (#220971) #

I don't know but if I had been drafted out off HS it would have probably taken a million to buy me out. If I go to college, I can still be drafted after 3 years. If I don't get drafted at that point, I would have also not made it to the majors in all likelihood. So I would waste 4-5 years of my life trying to make it and then go to college after a failed baseball career. However, after that many years it's hard to get back into it and my school performance might not be the same. I would want a million to get compensated for all of that.

jgadfly - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 03:05 AM EDT (#220973) #

The Pirates? What? ... My apologies for being overly obtuse. I was caught up in the whole secretive nature of the amateur draft signings .

The last rumours I saw in early July on Luis Heredia had the Jays outbidding the Pirates $2.8M to $2.5M ( http://www.fanfeedr.com/mlb/2010/07/02/blue-jays-pirates-bidding-on-luis-heredia )

but in the interim the Bucs have been selling off players ( two to Japan and one to the Mets IIRC ) which I would imagine is to raise more monie$ for the kid's services . This was just trumped by the Jays

freeing up another $800,000 . We'll know in another couple of days .

Kelekin - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 03:47 AM EDT (#220974) #

I don't know, 800k and 1M can be apples and oranges. But it also depends on your financial situation. Any kid who turns down 800k is someone who likely has financial fallbacks even going in.

Thanks for the clarification jgadfly, I do understand your comment now. We'll have to see - for some reason, everyone believes the Pirates are still the favorite.

Moe - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 05:33 AM EDT (#220977) #

I don't think you need a financial fallback to turn down an 800k bonus. First that all gets taxed and you possibly have to give some of the money to an agent. And there might be even more people who will ask for money. But even if there is no agent and no one asking for money, you "only" get 400-500k. For that, you give up going to college and 5 years of your life. If you are a smart kid, college is worth a lot of money. Easily more than 500k over your life. Yes, you can go later but it's not the same.

Clearly, the kid is not really poor and probably not dumb (so he will get something out of going to college). He knows he only has a small shot at making it but it will cost some of his prime years. Of course, there can be plenty of situations where a kid will want to sign (needs the money, wouldn't go to college w/out baseball) and 200k will not be a hold-up. But I would not want to call a 18 year old greedy or stupid for turning down 800k.

Forkball - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#220978) #

It's certainly gutsy to turn down that much money.

ayjackson - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#220980) #

Waste five years of your life? Well he'll waste 10 years trying to make the same money after college that he threw away yesterday. Where does it say that you have to be 18-22 to go to college and get an education. I quite frankly would have gotten more out of my undergrad if I was a little bit older when I took it.

jerjapan - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#220982) #

I would not want to call a 18 year old greedy or stupid for turning down 800k.

Well said Moe. I teach high school and I know first hand how difficult these 'rest of your life' style decisions are at that age - they really are just kids. Complicate that decision further with the money, the dreams of making it and all the advice they are getting and I won't criticize a draftee no matter what they decide.

Moe - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#220984) #

From my experience, it's hard to get back into the habit of studying after being out of it for a few years. And being older than most other kids is also no fun. Furthermore, it's not like that scholarship the guy turns down has no value. Depending on the school, a full ride with all the perks can be worth 150k. If I had a boy who is not only good in baseball but also academically inclined and is offered a full ride to a good school (Stanford, Vanderbilt, etc) and the alternative is 400k after tax, I would encourage him to go to school.

And yes, if you don't make it and spend 5 years in the minors that's wasted time if you are the college type. Also, the average starting salary for with bachelor in fields like engineering and economics is 50-60k. So between 5 years of lost wages and the lost scholarship, you covered a fair bit of the signing bonus.

Listen, I'm not saying this is what went on this case, I'm merely saying it's not as obvious to take 800k and turn pro as it may seem on first glance. This kid might just be greedy or badly advised. But he may also be an intelligent young man who could be an engineer or lawyer in a few years and for whom college has a lot of value. Obviously, these kids are not the majority and that's why most of them sign but there are very good reasons for some not to sign.

MatO - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#220986) #

BA has 41st rounder Seth Conner signing as well. Here's a couple of rather extensive articles on him.

http://tagsgf.com/2010/06/07/seth-conner-the-power-to-emerge/

http://tagsgf.com/2010/06/18/seth-conner-catcher/

Gerry - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#220987) #

In reading the link it appears that the kids parents wanted him to go to college and that in addition he gets to stay at home and go to college. The comments about life being tough in the minor leagues are right, it is tough as an 18 year old to leave home and be in the competitive world of minor league baseball. Not all kids are ready for it at 18. It sounds like Ehlers wasn't ready for it and the staying at home to go to college is a bit of a red flag.

The Jays should have known this before they drafted him. In most cases money changes peoples minds, just not this one.

In regard to the other picks who didn't sign, Shreve, Cotto, Bryant, etc., those guys have probably been playing over the two months since the draft. The player could have decided not to sign or the Jays could have decided not to pursue the player, it works both ways. Cotto for example was described by BA as an all speed, weak bat player. The Jays could have taken a second look and decided the bat wouldn't play. I don't know but it is a possibility.

Magpie - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#220989) #

Where does it say that you have to be 18-22 to go to college and get an education. I quite frankly would have gotten more out of my undergrad if I was a little bit older when I took it.

I would have been lucky just to pass when I was 18. Plus, if you're an English student, as I was, it's quite helpful to take a few years to actually read the canon before the courses begin (those 19th century novels are long, every one of them. And yes, I think some of those writers were being paid by the word.) I went back to university in my late 20s, and had a huge head start on the rest of my classmates who were all so desperately busy just trying to get the reading done that they didn't have any time to think about it...

Not that that's the reason I took that path - ages 18 to about 26 are fondly (very fondly) remembered by myself as.... well, let's call them the Rimbaud years. A systematic disordering of the senses...

Forkball - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#220990) #

The Jays should have known this before they drafted him. In most cases money changes peoples minds, just not this one

But in the 8th round, for the most part, aren't you just taking a flier on a player hoping he signs if you think he has potential? (as opposed to taking a college player who won't make an impact beyond AA)

It'd be nice to see a recap of the players the Jays signed, and which of those players that they went over-slot for (and by how much, or what the equivalent money is, like 'third round money').

MatO - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#220991) #

According to the story, money would have changed Ehlers' mind. The Jays just didn't offer enough of it.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#220994) #

A systematic disordering of the senses...

Systematic? If it's Tuesday, that means 210 db at a Rolling Stones concert and hearing loss. Tomorrow, I shall aim for vertigo.

Anyways, I can't imagine why anyone would criticize an 18 year old for refusing 800K in order to go to college, or for that matter for accepting the money and postponing college in order to pursue a baseball career. They are both good options, and speaking as a parent, I would be happy if my kid made either choice.

ayjackson - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#220995) #

The offer of $800k probably included an offer to pay for college should the kid get injured or his baseball career not work out. That's a better guarantee than the scholarship will offer.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#220997) #

Everyone has a price - just for some it is higher than others. If you offered me $100,000 to move to the US I'd say no way. Make it $50,000,000 and I'd go 'sure'. When I was 22 though the $100k would've been more than enough (heck, just a job would've been plenty).

As to the draft, the official list is right here although it is missing last nights late signings still. In the end Ehlers is the highest pick not signed (8th round, 246th overall). The top 13 picks all were signed. In 2009 they had a few misses early on, but in 2008 the Jays signed their first 25 picks, the first 11 in 2007, first 6 in 2006 (covering rounds 1-8 as they lost a few picks), and in 2005 they signed everyone through round 16.

Signing a lot of the high picks is common here it seems. Last year was the oddity. Hopefully we see a few extra picks this upcoming winter (via Frasor, Downs, Buck) and get some more solid minor leaguers who become major leaguers at some point.

Anders - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#220998) #

The offer of $800k probably included an offer to pay for college should the kid get injured or his baseball career not work out. That's a better guarantee than the scholarship will offer.

This is not uncommon; I believe Ubaldo Jiminez received a similar gurantee, and he didn't get anywhere near $800,000. At the most it costs the team another 200k down the road, and if they are correct in their assessment of the player then it won't matter. (On a somewhat related note given Ricky's recent contract, Ubaldo signed a 4 year/$10 million deal after 2 years of service time, plus two options years for a total of $14 million. That's why pitchers get locked up early.)

As for turning down money, people have different priorities at different stages of their lives. Maybe he gets his degree and gets offered 400k or 4 million in 3 years, or never plays a day of professional baseball, who knows. $800 grand is a lot of money though, taxes and agent fees notwithstanding.

zeppelinkm - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#221000) #

I would like to congratulate Shaun Marcum on his first career complete game.

I'm a bit tired at work today as a result, but it was worth staying up late to see him finally finish one. The CJ home run was a bit of a bummer, but it was nice to see how it didn't seem to phase Shaun in the slightest.

Here's hoping there are more in the future.

ayjackson - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#221002) #

I believe Ubaldo Jiminez received a similar gurantee

I believe Myles Jaye received one too.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#221003) #

It didn't faze him either, although the blood pressure of the A's hitters was probably razed, after flailing at the changeup all night long. :)

And yes, congratulations to Shaun Marcum on his first complete game. As Magpie pointed out early in the year, it was a while between non-Doc complete games, but now Romero (3 times), Morrow and Marcum have done it.

Chris DH - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#221004) #

Conor Glassey of Baseball America also tweeted that he is hearing BlueJays 28th-round RHP Adaric Kelly got $250K.

In terms of Ehlers - as I recall he was supposed to be a difficult sign to begin with. I am sure the Jays recognized this and decided the risk was worth it. Isnt this a similar strategy to Jays teams under Gillick? Draft the difficult-tosign high-upside players - win some and lose some?

zeppelinkm - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#221005) #

"LOL", thanks Mike.

I'm at work and was just buying some transmission capacity through a HQD provider known as "Phase I/II".

John Northey - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#221007) #

Just checking my old version of the Lahman database (only up to 2008 on my office computer).

Number of players making it to the majors per year...
2004-2008: 206 to 238

Since 1900 peak year: 1995 with 247 followed by 2008 at 238
Just 15 seasons all-time with 200+ debuts
1959 the last time under 100 made their ML debut.

What does this mean? Basically that you can expect about 6-7 players per team to be given their first shot at the majors in any one season. Thus anyone drafted after the 7th round has a very low shot at making it (especially if you factor in sandwich rounds and international free agents) even for a cup of coffee.

The peak for average years for all guys making their debut in a season is 10.3 in 1880. For post-1900 we get a leader in 1973 at 8.1 for the 131 guys breaking in. For 1990 to present the peak is 1990 at 6.56 (not counting active players).

This suggests that the average guy does get to play for his pre-free agent period but not into free agency as a rule.

In the end all of this means that we are looking at the first 5-7 rounds as being where you draft guys you expect to have a shot, then you go for the wild cards - guys who have talent but either are missing a key ingredient (health, attitude, perceived desire, arm strength, speed, whatever) or are viewed as 'unsignable'. So getting the first 7 rounds fully signed is great, as guys like Ehlers (8th and later) had the odds strongly against them anyways.

At some point I'll dig a bit deeper and see how many became regulars for at least one season.

85bluejay - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#221022) #

With the Jays not signing Ehlers (800.) and Pirates spending mucho dinero on Tallion & Allie - I wonder

how that will play into the bidding for Luis Heredia starting on Aug. 18 (Wed.)

TamRa - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#221024) #

If a person went to college and became, say, an accountant, and over the first 20 years of their career thy made something like the median income in the U.S. on average, they would make IN ALL....about $900,000

Just for comparison.

dawgatc - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#221025) #

they might make 900000 as you suggest - if you take 500000 dollars and leave it in an airtight investment over the same period how much would you have- plus the money you subsequently made in or out of baseball - to me no matter how you cut it for a young guy who wants to play baseball to turn down 800000 bucks plus an opportunity to train with a professional ball team towards a career in baseball is absolutely insane - how many pitchers have gone to college and then blown an arm or just not performed - set for life or having fun at school - I don't get it

MatO - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#221030) #

BA has 41st round Seth Conner and 26th rounder Canadian Jay Johnson as signed but other sources say they aren't. Is there a definitive source on this?

Moe - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#221031) #

First, stop saying they leave 800k on the table. Due to taxes it's more like 400k, especially if there are people taking a cut. I have seen reports on these deals and if they include a clause for college money (not all do but that could have just not been reported), it's more typically 30-70k. For comparison, a full ride at at top school is easily 150k, possibly more and that's tax free. If you go to college, your median salary is not 45k any more. The median STARTING salary in fields like engineering, economics, physics is well over 50k, the business majors come in at 45k. After 10 years, they are at 80k-100k (median). So these guys will make 600k in more like 7-10 years. 5 years of that income plus a high quality eduction plus maybe liking the idea of being in college can be 1 million one time payment (due to progressive tax system).

Again, I'm not saying this applies to all the guys drafted. It probably doesn't even apply to all who couldn't agree on a deal. But there are cases in which it makes perfect sense to turn down 500-800k and go to college.

Marc Hulet - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#221032) #

Press confirmation on Adaric Kelly's signing. Interestingly, it sounds like he's originally from Aruba. He signed literally at 11:59 pm, clearly after Ehlers turned down his $800,000.

ayjackson - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#221033) #

The median STARTING salary in fields like engineering, economics, physics is well over 50k, the business majors come in at 45k.

Get off. Let's have a source. I know lawyers in the States that don't make 40k, let alone some undergrad.

I don't think your analysis is genuine.

jvictor - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#221034) #

I met a man who had a son drafted by the Braves. LH pitcher, later rounds certainly wasn't looking at a big bonus. He was also offered a scholarship. He asked the scout who was offering the bonus what he should do. The scout pushed him into school where he would play on a team where they were pulling for his success and not hoping he would fail. He could get an education, hone his skills and maybe find a better draft slot (he didn't.) There is more to these decisions than money.

Moe - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#221035) #

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-Degrees_that_Pay_you_Back-sort.html

and since I teach college (and not a top one), I know this is true. Think about it, the median income is 45k. Less than 50% go to college. Guess where they are in the distribution especially if they can manage to do a hard field like engineering.

The income distribution for lawyers is bi-modal: there is one big group starting at around 200k and one around 60k. I doubt there are many lawyers who get 40k and work full time as lawyers. Unless on course it's their own little firm and they get to do creative taxation (it's not my car, it leased by the firm etc).

Forkball - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#221036) #

The median STARTING salary in fields like engineering, economics, physics is well over 50k, the business majors come in at 45k.
Let's have a source

http://theprofessionalengineer.com/2010/02/09/engineering-graduates-salary/

They'll vary based on location, but those figures seem in the ballpark to me and supported by the link.

The other factor I don't think some are considering is that if a player turns down money and goes to college, there's no guarantee that he'll graduate and/or get an average to above-average salary when he's done.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#221037) #

Brad Mills, who studied engineering at University of Arizona, might be a good example of a player who would be well-advised to turn down bonus money.

Paul D - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#221038) #

Distribution of starting US legal salaries

Moe - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#221039) #

The other factor I don't think some are considering is that if a player turns down money and goes to college, there's no guarantee that he'll graduate and/or get an average to above-average salary when he's done.

I agree. But this is much more predictable. There is always risk, with any choice. They could get hit by a bus and the signing bonus would have been a nice consolidation for their parents (I know, just trying to make a point).

Most students have a good sense as to where they are within the distribution of students. And as I said, my analysis does not ably to all of these kids. In fact, it only applies to a minority. My point was about that we should not make sweeping statements about greedy or illusional students. Yes, some may overestimate their value (or are badly advised), others underestimate the injury risk but some truly make a perfectly rational choice although it may not appear like that at first.

Moe - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#221041) #

Distribution of starting US legal salaries

I admit, 200k was an exaggeration. But bi-model at 160k and 40-65k is correct.

Moe - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#221042) #

Brad Mills, who studied engineering at University of Arizona, might be a good example of a player who would be well-advised to turn down bonus money.

Didn't he finish his degree?

mendocino - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#221044) #

Jay Johnson transaction from Baseball America

Toronto Blue Jays
Draft pick signed: LHP Jay Johnson (26)

Seth Conner

The 41st-round pick in June�s Major League Baseball draft netted a signing bonus of $100,000, he said. Conner also will be paid $40,000 in tuition fees after the duration of the contract, which Conner did not disclose.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#221045) #

Mills did finish his degree, Moe. And I agree about the wisdom of simply respecting whatever choice the draftee made. We know only something about a draftee's baseball talent; we know much less about his other personal circumstances.

MatO - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#221046) #

Let's not get too sentimental here. Ehlers himself said that he had a price. More money would have bought him out of any higher purpose in life.

Moe - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#221047) #

I never said "higher purpose in life". And I never said it applies to Ehlers (don't know the kid). All I said is that it MAY make sense to turn down 600k or 800k for some people. There are draft prospects who have a full ride to Stanford or Princeton. They may never get that again, even if the team will pay 50k for an education later. Of course, at one point you reach the point were it enough, 1mill, 1.3mill, depends on the kid. This is the opposite of a higher calling, this is business.

dawgatc - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#221048) #

and its not like the kid is finished with higher education -say he is in the minors for 4 years and doesn't make it -surely its not inconcievable that he could go back to university at the age of 22 and in a lot of cases the teams say they will pay if it happens - don't get it

ayjackson - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#221050) #

That's the crux of the argument too. You can go to college anytime. You can get a degree anytime - even during your time in the GCL etc. You may never get another chance $800k.

If you want a career in baseball, you can go to college or turn pro. If you want an education, you can go to college or turn pro. If you want to never have a mortgage, turn pro.

sam - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#221051) #

Hey, I know with all this baloney involving Rogers' new channel people haven't been able to watch the Jays. I've personally never had cable so I guess I can't really complain. Anyways some blessed soul out there in internet-land has put up a stream of the Jays game.

It's located at www.atdhe.net

This stream works for mac users and pc users. It might involve downloading a mediaplayer which hasn't caused my computer any problems although it switched my firefox homepage. Anyways that's how I've been watching Jays games recently

TamRa - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#221058) #

First, stop saying they leave 800k on the table. Due to taxes it's more like 400k, especially if there are people taking a cut.

Well sure - and if they work 20 years they'll likely pay close to half their income in taxes. Depending on what state they live in.

I have seen reports on these deals and if they include a clause for college money (not all do but that could have just not been reported), it's more typically 30-70k. For comparison, a full ride at at top school is easily 150k, possibly more and that's tax free.

Not every draftee has an opportunity at a "top school" - just as not all will go into the higher paying professions. Certainly if this guy (just for the sake of example) could get an engineering degree from Stanford for his free ride, that's a different question than if he got an Education degree from, I dunno, Southern Miss or some such.

If you go to college, your median salary is not 45k any more. The median STARTING salary in fields like engineering, economics, physics is well over 50k, the business majors come in at 45k.

I got a Social Science BS and a teaching license and my starting pay was a tick over $30K...admittedly in a lower paying state but in the best of states it's under 40 and you'll get well into the teens before your average over your career passes the median.

But even if it's true that you START at 45 and work your way up so that over 20 years you averaged, say, $60K - that's over 13 years to gross an $800k sum.

Assuming everything goes right, and you don't become disabled or get downsized and start over or whatever else gets in a man's way over the course of 20 years.

As opposed to banking that sum for one signiture.

Further, the "sign now" option doesn't shouldn't assume NO college education or subsequent degree and high pay. Lets say dude went from a free ride to having to incur a $50K student loan to get his degree - except he won't - if he's really so smart - because he has money in the bank from the signing bonus, so call that even. (Mills is an example of a guy who played ball AND finished his degree, by the wya)

Let's further assume that instead of being a $60K average engineer, he's a $45K average teacher because he chose to play ball.

Now, what that means is that over the course of 20 years, the difference in what he made and what he might have made with the engineering degree is $300,000

I.E. less that he netted from the bonus money.

and as others point out - once the bonus is paid, it is YOURS.

Whereas the potential rewards of - for instance - an engineering degree must still be obtained over a lifetime of work which can go horribly wrong in a multitude of unexpected ways.

To me, the only sensible reason to gamble is if your talent is such that you expect to get a substantially larger bonus the next time you are drafted by going to school - that's simply playing the odds, sometimes you win, sometimes you crap out (Hiya Jake E.!)

For this particular guy, the gamble only pays if, after his JR year (or later) you will be so highly regarded that you can land a substantially higher bonus (on the order of almost twice this amount or more)

I'll give you a marginal point on the progressive tax system to a point. But if you get a top-school degree and make $50k or more out of college, you are already in the bracket that's gonna hit you on the bonus, are close to it. The all-at-once hit is not there, but you're still going to pay the same amount eventually.

Chris DH - Tuesday, August 17 2010 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#221061) #

Couple interesting items after yesterdays deadline.

Keith Law has a team-by-team draft class reclass for the AL today:

http://klaw.me/awV2B8

Overall it appears he liked the Jays draft (and signings) and definitely thinks the Jays added a lot of depth to the system but perhaps instead of spreading the bonus money they should have targeted a few more upside type players...

And Jim Callis had draft deadline chat today:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/chat/2010/2610538.html

Not much on the Jays but he was asked the biggest sleeper in the draft - which he defined as player lacking hype...answer righthander Asher Wojciechowski. "Plus fastball and slider, should move quickly."

Kelekin - Wednesday, August 18 2010 @ 02:14 AM EDT (#221065) #

I think it comes down to whether or not you want to play baseball. To be honest, this kid clearly doesn't have baseball as his priority and that's all it comes down to.

Would I ever turn down 800k? No. Because it's very common for adult students to go to university, so it's not like I'd be that out of place if I failed and had to go to school when I'm 22 or 23.

dawgatc - Wednesday, August 18 2010 @ 02:48 AM EDT (#221066) #

agree 100 percent -when he is draftable again there will almost certainly be some kind of hard cap in place and he'll be very lucky to get another chance like this - don't think he got good advice but also agree he can't have much desire to play in the bigs

Moe - Wednesday, August 18 2010 @ 04:14 AM EDT (#221067) #

Will, I don't think you really got my point. I never said this applies to everyone. All I said there are cases for whom this would make perfect sense. Yes, if you are into English Lit and only have a scholarship to a small (cheap) state school, you should take the money. However, if you have a scholarship to a top school, are a really smart, geeky person and will be an engineer or lawyer down the road, the lost scholarship (150-200k) and the lost income (250k-300k) make it perfectly reasonable to turn this down. All I want to say is, we don't know enough about these kids. I know people who should have signed for a 100k and some who shouldn't have taken 1mill. This is a very individual problem. That's all I ever said.

Moe - Wednesday, August 18 2010 @ 04:33 AM EDT (#221068) #

One more thing about taxes because people always seem to mix that up: there are two different rates that matter for different problems. The average rate and the marginal rate. At 600k, the two are very similar because almost everything is in the highest bracket. At 80k, you may already be in the highest bracket (not in ON b/c of the surtax) but your average tax is still low. For a problem like this, your average rate matters.

In ON, the average rate at 600k is 43.15% (46.41% marginal); at 60k, the average rate is 20.48% (31.15% marginal). The marginal rates are much closer than the average rates. As a result, it takes the guy only 7 and not 10 years to catch up (I know there is discounting involved but I ignore that for now). At 80k, it's only 5.5 years.

Again, not every graduate will make this much but there are some who can reasonably expect to fall into that range. For them it would not be crazy to turn down 800k and just go to school even if the chances at a bigger bonus are small. There are some who are probably just greedy (or badly advised -- Jake E.?). But some do have a scholarship to Princeton.

dawgatc - Wednesday, August 18 2010 @ 05:44 AM EDT (#221070) #

I'll concede you seem to know more about taxes etc. than most- but we also shouldn't assume that the 4 or 500000 he would have left just stands still and doesn't grow thru interest or just the value of never having to pay a mortgage etc. - up to around a half million i think its debatable-after that jeez I'd really have to be convinced more than I am now -it would be interesting tolook back at older drafts like 2005 etc. and investigate what happened to the guys who turned down good bonuses - especially pitchers

Moe - Wednesday, August 18 2010 @ 06:11 AM EDT (#221071) #

-it would be interesting tolook back at older drafts like 2005 etc. and investigate what happened to the guys who turned down good bonuses - especially pitchers

I would not be surprised if at least half of the players who turned down a big bonus have regrets. As I said, most of them will not have a scholarship to a top school and won't be good students. But for some that's true. And since we don't know who falls into which group, we shouldn't make assumptions like them being greedy or foolish. Plus there are other reasons (like the kid the Brewers drafted) and you never hear about. All I want is us to be a bit more careful when we slam 17 year olds for the choices they made. Some made them for the wrong reasons but some made them for the right ones. We don't know, we always just assume.

dawgatc - Wednesday, August 18 2010 @ 06:33 AM EDT (#221072) #

I'm even wondering about guys like covey or nicholas van der taig -covey has diabetes -he should still be able to play baseball but why not take a bonus just in case-if I'm the team that drafts him we tell him take a year to get yourself squared away and get your condition under control then we'll be ready for you when your ready to go - van der taig was a late jay draft pick who will need tommy john - the jays could pickup his tuition - he does 2 years of university while his tj comes good then starts with the jays in his 3rd year - easy to get the eduction finished during off seasons and the jays ganble that he comes back good at a reduced bonus because of the injury - seems like they both come good -now he goes to university with a bad wing - I'm thinking they try to get him out there after 1 year instead of 2 because they're are trying to get their money's worth out of it before the scholarship ends - I'm pretty old now and have seen the value of getting a little boost early in life -you shouldn't discount that -when you're young it looks like things will fall in your lap forever but thats not the way it works- anyway good luck to them;I have to admire their courage

AWeb - Wednesday, August 18 2010 @ 08:19 AM EDT (#221073) #

With respect to average and median salaries and making up the difference of a bonus over time - the numbers reported on such things have one very large statistical problem. They only report salaries for those working, and often only for those working in their chosen field. Sure, the starting salary for a lot of professional jobs is quite good, but as someone who has been in the job market in the past few years, there are often several highly qualified people applying for any particular job. The graph for the lawyer's is a perfect example - it says right on it that it is based on 19,000 reported salaries. Implied in this is that if you make no salary, you're not included.

Actual US unemployment rates are close to 20% at this point (http://www.shadowstats.com) - including the long-term unemployed and the far underemployed (such as law school grads working part-time in retail, which does happen. Comically overqualified for retail - not just for English Lit majors anymore!), which are both completely removed from the "official" unemployment rates that governments like to report (it's a bit better in Canada in terms of employment, but we do the same tricks to make thigns look better). By excluding those that would like to work in a field, and are qualified to do so, but can't find a job, it presents a falsely positive view of how things turn out for many people.

I would add to the discussion - starting an undergraduate degree is not the same thing as finishing it and finding full time work in your field. As was noted to my parents at a pre-first year meeting when my sibling started school on a full scholarship, and I'm paraphrasing - "everyone in this room was at or near the top of the class in high school. Obviously, this will not be the case in university." Interesting discussion on money up front vs. long-term prospects, though.

MatO - Wednesday, August 18 2010 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#221075) #

AA was on the FAN with McCown yesterday. He said the first financial offer made to McGuire came at about 10:30pm on Monday (Griffin's article today suggests this is MLB mandated so that agents don't have time to see what everyone else is getting). The deal being done literally at the last minute. McCown asked him if he was satisfied with how the signings went. AA answered yes except for the 8th rounder they didn't sign (didn't name Ehlers). Andrew Tinnish was handling the Ehlers negotiation while AA was talking to McGuire. AA said that after getting McGuire done he went to see Tinnish. Tinnish's office had papers strewn all over the floor. Tinnish told AA that he had a deal with the 8th rounder worked out but he had backed out at the last second (AA intimated the parents may have had something to do with it). In anger, Tinnish had trashed his office.

China fan - Wednesday, August 18 2010 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#221077) #

Instead of trashing the papers in his office, couldn't he have slugged a water-cooler with a baseball bat, in time-honored tradition? Or punched a locker-room door, like AJ Burnett did? Of course he'd then have to go onto the DL list....

jerjapan - Wednesday, August 18 2010 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#221080) #

I think much of the debate on high schoolers taking the signing bonus or going to college is missing the big point - these are CHILDREN we are talking about. They have different values, are more likely to follow the advice of key adults in their lives - parents, coaches, teachers - and place a tremendous value on being part of groups. Psychological research has proven that teens don't think long-term in the same way as adults, nor are they good at considering risks and consequences for their actions. Many feel invulnerable and therefore do not seriously consider the risk of career-ending injuries.

Sure, some teens are rational and pragmatic - and some are wildly idealistic and naive. Doing the less practical thing because of something you believe in strongly - say, the value of a college education - is actually a wonderful habit of some young people.

I know many teenagers in my role as a teacher and coach, and I can't think of more than a couple who would read the above debates without rolling their eyes and saying that adults just don't get it.

dawgatc - Wednesday, August 18 2010 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#221083) #

a large majority of the above adults have actually been teenagers at one time or another

John Northey - Wednesday, August 18 2010 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#221085) #

Shows how vital good scouting can be in non-baseball terms. If the Jays knew Ehlers parents were strongly in favour of school they could've talked with them more in the time leading up to the deadline day and perhaps been able to make things work. Found out if a scholarship setup or letting Ehlers take classes during his first year and for as long as Ehlers was in short season ball (Jays paying of course) could've worked. For the cost of a plane ticket and hotel they might've been able to get him to sign on a dotted line (one extra trip to Ehlers home by Tinnish).

Good scouts talk to not just players but also parents, teachers, and coaches. Once the draft was done and you are down to 50 players sending off scouts to deeply investigate details of key players (probably 10-20 at most) would be a very good idea. Now the Jays might have done this and still got caught off-guard but the way it ended with Ehlers sounds very much like they didn't notice just how vital his parents were to the negotiations.

TamRa - Thursday, August 19 2010 @ 03:10 AM EDT (#221149) #

To be clear, I came late to this discussion anyway, and the LAST thing on my mind is to "slam" the kid. I can definately see that the choice to go to school can be seen as the "right" choice on a level that goes beyond immediate gratification.

My view is probably colored by being chronically broke and permenantly under (or un-) employed relative to my degree.

You have enough reversals of fortune in your life and you get pretty skeptical of the yellow-brick-road where everything goes right. obviously it does happen, but i tend to see the potential potholes.

dawgatc - Thursday, August 19 2010 @ 04:27 AM EDT (#221151) #

it amazes me that teams leave everything til the last minute -the story about the jays scout trashing his office because the deal fell thru is a head scratcher to me- if you really wanted this kid I would think you would have been on him right from the draft - when you leave it til the last minute and it goes wrong;no time to fix it

Matthew E - Thursday, August 19 2010 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#221159) #

Instead of trashing the papers in his office, couldn't he have slugged a water-cooler with a baseball bat, in time-honored tradition?

I think that the tradition for draft-related frustrations is throwing a chair.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 19 2010 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#221192) #

Roger Clemens was indicted.

Important Current News! | 80 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.