I suppose it's just a statistical oddity, from a small sample size, but has anyone noticed that Encarnacion has a OPS of .554 when runners are in scoring position this season?  It's the lowest RISP on the entire team.  Even John McDonald hits better in RISP situations.   It might help to explain why people like me have felt frustrated by EE's performance this season (and last season) when his raw numbers are actually not that bad, especially since the improvement that followed his demotion to the minors.   There have just been so many occasions when he comes up to bat with runners on base and fails to cash anyone in.   Not that it would have made any difference in tonight's game, of course.

I've made an observation as well although the sample size is small- just 3 games in fact. But it seems that the pitching staff is completely out of sync when Arencibia is behind the plate. Romero and Marcum both had some of their worst starts of the season and even in Arencibia's first game, the rays did put up 11 runs. Obviously he is experienced and doesn't quite know the capabilities of the Jays' pitching staff, that will come with time but for right now I think his poor pitch calling is costing the jays.

I'm finding it hard not to roll my eyes at the above.  No offense Joshua, because I understand some people believe such a myth when it comes to game calling - but guess who makes the final decision EVERY time? The pitcher.

Arencibia didn't make Marcum's change-ups constantly miss the plate.  Arencibia didn't make Romero constantly hang his curveball.  Let's be real.

This is just a small sample size and a ridiculous conclusion.

I think the 7 days rest between starts for Marcum and Romero could have contributed. That may have been too much time between starts and their feel for certain pitches was not right.

Umpire squeezed Marcum pretty hard in the first and after that the wheels came off. His change wasn't good either.

People put a bit too much stock into how much influence the catcher's game calling has on a pitcher.

Well, when JPA has caught (3 games) we have seen Jay pitchers give up 11-7-10 runs. That catches ones eye.

How often have the Jays given up 7 or more runs in a game this year? Checking B-R I see it is 30 times (Jays are 3-27 in those games). The worst was a 14 run game against (of course) the Red Sox. Ricky started, with John Buck catching (Molina DH'ed for some reason).

Catcher stats for the Jays...
John Buck: 4.73 R/G - his 2nd best ever - 27% CS
Molina: 3.37 R/G - his 2nd best ever - 59% CS
JPA: 9.33 R/G - first ML exp. - 50% CS

The team is 21-15 when Molina starts, 37-38 when Buck starts, and 1-2 for JPA's starts.

The only guys with an ERA below the R/G that Molina has had occur in starts are Downs & Camp. Wow. That needs more checking into. What teams has he started against?

Molina Starts: Arizona, Baltimore (4), Boston (3 & 1 as DH), ChiSox, Cleveland (4), Colorado, Detroit, Kansas City (3), LAA, Minnesota (2), NYY (3), Oakland, Philly, Seattle, San Fran, St Louis, Tampa (4), Texas (2)

So 10 starts against the beasts of the east. 9 runs vs TB, 17 NYY, 9 Boston = 35 runs in 10 games = 3.5 runs per game.

Wow. If I was running the Jays I'd be digging in a heck of a lot more into this Molina thing.

People put a bit too much stock into how much influence the catcher's game calling has on a pitcher.

Arencibia will be fine once he stops calling for hanging curves and high change-ups.

Jack Moore at fangraphs points out that not all of Aaron Hill's poor BABIP this year can be attributed to batted ball distribution, and expects improvement to come soon.

I too have always taken issue with the influence of a catcher's game calling.

To me, at the end of the day, it doesn't really matter what the catcher calls (within reason). It's the pitcher who has to execute. If the pitcher is not executing his pitches, it is really irrelevant what the catcher is calling.

Now, I suppose a more experienced catcher would quickly figure out what is and isn't working and adjust the game plan accordingly, but there is still only so much that can be done if a pitcher is not hitting his spots and executing his pitches.

It's very, very difficult to measure the impact of the catcher's role in the battery, beyond WP/PB and SB/CS.  If it were negligible, the defensive significance of catching would likely be less than that of 2B/3B/CF.  Subjectively, I don't think that it is.

Pitch selection, and a good rapport between pitcher and catcher, matter, as well as blocking the plate...  None of this has much to do with Arencibia's first 3 starts.  There are few catchers who arrive in the major leagues fully formed defensively: it is actually perhaps the only position where many players are as good or better defensively at 35 as they were at 25.  I am thinking of Bob Boone and Gregg Zaun, but you could probably rhyme off another 20. 

I'd fully expect a guy like Marcum to brush off a catcher who's calling for bad pitches. On the other hand, it can't be good for a pitcher's rhythm if he's got to have a debate with the catcher between pitches. I once heard someone say it's a catcher's job to call the pitch the pitcher wants to throw, and while that's probably simplistic, being in sync is pretty important.

That said, while I'd expect some growing pains with Arencibia and the pitching staff, I haven't heard anyone knowledgeable suggest Arencibia's actually incompetent behind the plate. Everyone gets hit eventually, and with the hot streak the Jays were on, they were probably due.

I posted this by mistake in the MLU thread but Lyle Overbay has cleared waivers according to MLB Trade Rumours via Fox Sports.  Overbay is not in the starting lineup this afternoon.  Adam Lind is playing at first.

Keeping the ball down and throwing strikes is not something that's hard to figure out. Plus catcher, pitcher, and coaches go over the hitters before the game and between innings as to what they want to do out there.

who makes the final decision EVERY time? The pitcher.

It's seldom quite that simple - ther's a whole spectrum of possibilities. At one extreme, there really are pitchers who don't want to have to think about the choices, who focus completely on throwing whatever the catcher calls for (and sometimes, of course, the team doesn't want them thinking).

At the other end are pitchers who call their own game entirely. Doyle Alexander had a system where he would read the catcher's sign, and respond to it with a visual cue so the catcher would know what he was actually throwing(the catcher would put down 2 for the curve, Alexander would tap his thigh to add or subtract...)

On this team I think you're right that it is the pitcher making the final call. For the most part, though, they seem to be going along with whatever the catcher calls for the most part (otherwise we'd probably see a lot more shaking off the catcher.) And you'll recall that when Gaston and Walton were unhappy with Morrow's pitch selection in the Yankees game, they didn't go to Molina and tell him to stop calling for breaking balls with a seven run lead - they went and talked to Morrow about it.

it is really irrelevant what the catcher is calling.

Well, not completely. You really can call for the wrong damn pitch. If you call for a belt high fastball on the inner half to David Ortiz, it doesn't much matter how well you execute it. Ortiz will execute you.

Not a huge surprise that Mills got hammered again today. I just am not sure if he has the stuff to put away good teams like the three we have to face in the AL East.

I would never say the catcher has -zero- effective.  But the fact that people are willing to criticize Arencibia and put up warning flags after THREE games is a bit much.  Especially when you consider that all three pitchers have had worse starts this year.

*effect, sorry.

And Mills has not had a worse start this year, but last year he was just awful in those two starts as stated above.

Looks like we'll be concluding a series of bad hitting and pitching. Oh wells.

I do have to admit that the weekend seems a very long time ago now. I wish we knew how to perform against the Sox, but we seem to struggle against them. Even when Doc was here, he'd destroy the Yankees regularly but the Sox gave him more troubles. Even with their lineup wracked by injuries our pitchers struggle against them.

I think the 7 days rest between starts for Marcum and Romero could have contributed. That may have been too much time between starts and their feel for certain pitches was not right.

This.

I've wondered some about excessive off days and how pitchers deal with that in terms of keeping their "feel."

Well my call out is kind of working. Hope they can tie it up.

According to MLB Gameday Bard's 2 pitches were at 99.2 and 98.7 MPH. No problem for Freddy Loo!

Now thats the fun way to win. 3 runs off their ace closer. Sweet.

A satisfying finish to a tough and frustrating series.

Btw, that is now 6 blown saves for Papelbon vs 29 saves.

Gregg has 25 saves and 4 blown saves.

Who would've thunk? Gregg has saved 86.2%, Papelbon 82.8%.

As always, the best part of beating the Red Sox in such a manner is reading the game threads on the Sons of Sam Horn website.  Incredible how much they hate Papelbon.

Had 'em all the way.

Wow is the Son of Sam Horn site not rated for children right now.

Although Papelbon is having a poor year by his standards - 3.3 BB/9 (2.5 lifetime, as low as 1.0 in 2008), 8.0 K/9 (10.1 lifetime, never below 9.0 before now). 6 HR is his worst ever as well.

He is in arbitration after this year, then free agency after 2011 is done. Making $9 million this year and not doing any better than Gregg in the save/blown category (Gregg is 4.6 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 4 HR).

Given Pap will make double Gregg's salary (at least) in 2011 would you trade them one for one? Not knowing if Pap has a serious arm issue that might push him to stay at Gregg level rather than 'wow' level?

It was Camp Day at the ballyard.  They did not however play "Time of Your LIfe" as an encore to "I Feel Good" after a very satisfying victory. 

Nor did they pitch Shawn Camp.

Nah.  SC now goes by "The Pitcher Formerly Known as Camp".  Love and harmony rule as the club flies into Los Angeles.

Given Pap will make double Gregg's salary (at least) in 2011 would you trade them one for one? Not knowing if Pap has a serious arm issue that might push him to stay at Gregg level rather than 'wow' level?

I'd do it. If Papelbon returns to form, you've got one of the league's premier closers. If he stays at Gregg level, you're only stuck with the extra salary for one year before he walks, and I don't see any huge FA signings coming this offseason that would crunch salary. If he completely flames out, finding another pitcher to put up Gregg-type numbers is by no means impossible and you have no guarantee about Gregg next year anyway.

The dealbreaker for nearly any deal that involves the Jays getting Papelbon is the sheer amount of time it takes that man to to get set on the mound, look in for the sign, slowly draw himself up to the stretch and then begin his movement towards home-plate.  Some of his effectiveness has to come from the fact that he lulls oppositions to sleep.

Yeah, I'd do the trade in a second, but it is interesting that they are producing at a similar rate this year with Pap being lower than Gregg in the K/9 and save % areas.

This winter Boston could be in panic mode. They could easily miss the playoffs and come in 4th. Ortiz showed he is aging the last 3 years thus is moving towards the door. Scutaro dropped back to his old self and is signed for 2 more years. Dustin Pedroia has been hurt and is one of just 2 guys under 31 in the lineup - the other being Jeremy Hermida who has a 59 OPS+ in LF with no other sub-30 year old getting over 125 PA this season. This lineup is old. In fact, it is tied for 2nd oldest in Boston Red Sox history at 31.3 (31.6 in 1905 is the record, in 2005 they also were 31.3).

Buchholz & Lester have been great in the rotation, but all other starters have ERA's over 4. Papelbon has been human, and now it is 2 years in a row with poor walk rates (3+). Daniel Bard & Scott Atchison are the best at BB/9 at 2.9 in the pen (over 1 IP) with Tim Wakefield being the only other one on the staff over 1 IP under 3 (2.4).

Their team ERA+ is 107 and OPS+ 111, but both are helped by a couple of guys having great years, not an overall solid effort.

Now, this all could (and probably is) a one year thing. Next year they could be right back to 95 wins. However, there are warning signs and that could lead to restlessness in Sox land. Lets hope.