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A.J. Burnett and Brandon Morrow have been compared quite a few times this season, so last night's match-up was something of a dream come true for all the Comparers out there.

The comparison, of course, is based on the Stuff Factor. Burnett and Morrow each have the Stuff to dominate, but it doesn't always Click. I'm not sure the comparison really goes any farther than that - A.J. didn't spend significant time in the bullpen, and Morrow isn't one of the ugliest baseball players in the game today (as Burnett most definitely is).

The match-up didn't exactly live up to the hype, if there actually was any, as neither pitcher was all that great. Fortunately for the Jays, Morrow was less bad, and Toronto rode its bats to an 8-6 victory. As Jerry and Alan made sure to point out on numerous occasions, the 7-run fifth inning was something of a record-setting affair: the Jays tied the AL record for most doubles in an inning with six, and Travis Snider became only the third Blue Jay to hit two doubles in an inning, the previous two coming in the same game more than 30 years ago. (Couldn't find the box score in a few brief minutes of searching, maybe some intrepid Bauxite can help me out here!)

Tonight: Ricky Romero takes the hill against Dustin Moseley. Dustin Moseley? I thought the Yanks had an incredible rotation. Advantage: Toronto.
Burnett Out-Un-Duels Morrow | 64 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
smcs - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#219703) #
Bottom of the 2nd inning on June 26, 1978 against the Baltimore Orioles.  The final score was 24-10 for the good guys.
lexomatic - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#219707) #
isn't 24 runs the most they've scored in a game?
John Northey - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#219710) #
Guess $200 million doesn't buy what it used to. Dustin Moseley is a former Angel who has a 5.21 lifetime ERA (86 ERA+) but this year is at 127 with his 3.24 ERA. Just 16 2/3 IP though over 5 games (1 start). In AAA (International League) he had a 4.21 ERA over 72 2/3 IP (12 starts).

His K/9 is 5.2 lifetime in the majors, 4.9 this season. In AAA it is 6.8 this year vs 6.0 lifetime. He reached AAA in 2003 but bounced between the majors and AAA ever since. A 'replacement level' guy for certain, at 28 getting the chance of a lifetime and doing well with it so far.
Denoit - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#219713) #

I didn't think Morrow pitched that bad. That is a great Yankee's lineup and to hold them under 5 runs is decent. I would have liked to see him get out of the 6th but it worked out in the end. He can definatly do better though.

Im curious to know what the conversation between Morrow and Cito was. Morrow didn't even look at Cito while he was talking too him on the bench.

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#219715) #

Dustin Moseley? I thought the Yanks had an incredible rotation. Advantage: Toronto.

Mr. Rutt, don't you know NUTHIN 'bout jinxing a guy? I hereby foresee a six-hit shutout complete game for young Moseley, who some confused teevee or radio guy will undoubtedly call "Lloyd."

Chuck - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#219716) #

is a great Yankee's lineup and to hold them under 5 runs is decent.

The Yankees score 5.4 runs per game. Allowing them to score 5 runs in 5.1 innings is not going to earn anyone a merit badge.

Adrock - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#219737) #
I very rarely hope for people to fail.  There are very few professional sports teams that I hate, yet I experienced a little frisson of pleasure when I took a look at last night's box score and saw the Jays piling on the runs against the Yankees that went beyond the usual pleasure derived from seeing the Jays beat up on the Yankees.

Which raises the question: Is AJ Burnett the least likable former Jay in history?

I know lots of Jays fans who continued to cheer on Carlos Delgado, Shawn Green, Fred McGriff, and many others, and it seems like most casual fans as well as Box denizens wish nothing but the best for Roy Halladay in Philadelphia.

Yet, I don't know of a single person who is avidly (or even tepidly) cheering on Mr. Burnett in pinstripes.

Do any of you have Burnett jerseys in the closet?  Have you heard tell of anyone who remains a fan?  I'm curious.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#219738) #
Well, I don't have the same feeling about Burnett as many, after the comments made about him by management while he was undergoing Active Release Therapy for his arm troubles.  He's a mixed bag, same as most people, to me. 
uglyone - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#219739) #

Screw Shawn Green. He's the only one of all our homegrown "stars" to really beg out of the city. AJ was just a merc in the first place so there's no hard feelings there.

Green screwed us, and I was never happier to see a player's career peter out so quickly, a couple of great years after he left but mostly remembered as an albatross contract and likely 'roid baby. 

And I am especially glad I had the chance to tell him that face to face at the LAX airport.

85bluejay - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#219740) #

I have to agree with you uglyone, regarding Shawn Green  and he shamelessly used his religion to get out of TO.

What was his reaction to your rant?

wdc - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#219742) #
Personally, I took no special satisfaction with AJ's difficulties.  He has great stuff, can be amazing to watch sometimes.  Other times, he is way off and he is able to read like a book.  I like his passion and his competitiveness.  I am glad that the Jays had him when they did.  And baseball is a business, players have a short shelf life in most instances.  So if the Yankees offer a lot of money, then you take it.  End of story.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#219744) #

His reaction? He tried to give me the puppy dog eyes and tell me how much he loved Toronto...but I just shook my head in disgust.

I personally take credit for Green's first-year struggles in LA now, every time I tell the story. I think I rattled him good.

subculture - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#219747) #
I enjoyed the game immensely, and had a couple of observations.
  • During the 7-run inning, the pained looks on the Yanks out on the field was priceless... I could imagine thought bubbles over their heads indicating many censorable words.
  • As bad (and good) as Brandon Morrow has been, only once did I get really frustrated watching him pitch this season, and it was early on.  Burnett on the other hand was always a 50-50 proposition.  Morrow has already shown more ability to learn, improve and execute this season, than Burnett has in several years.  I'd take Morrow over Burnett even money.  Burnett always gave me the impression he was being insincere in some way...
  • Both Morrow and Burnett were squeezed and affected by a really inconsistent strike zone.  Possibly the worst called game I've seen in a while.  Cito might have been talking to Morrow about how he has to manage that better... but it's tough to hear when you KNOW you've been robbed.  Purcey really benefited from a ball called strike (on Kearns I believe), otherwise that inning could have turned ugly.  Seemed like the ump would call breaking balls and low fastballs for strikes, but was blind to belt-high pitches right on the edges.
  • I wonder how many Yanks fans were wondering why they couldn't get Bautista instead of Kearns or Bagwell (though I think Bagwell is going to be big for them this year - imagine if Bagwell hits the walk-off dinger to knock the Red Sox out of the wild-card battle)
  • Bagwell, Kearns, and Wood added at the trade deadline, really?  As pinch-hitters, platoon at best, and as a set-up man?  For many teams, this would be a HUGE winter of free agent signings, adding a #4 and #5 hitter, and an experienced closer!  Something is really wrong when this happens and nobody blinks an eye.
  • I think Cito is going to do a good job of mixing in rookie at-bats with the veterans... his future is already assured and his legacy isn't going to change with a few more games won / lost this season.  My concern is that we haven't had a good history with the last few coaches in-between Cito teams... what are the candidates that we'd be interested in?
  • Snyder seemed to adjust well to his 9th-inning Cleveland disappointment (fanned on 3 hard fastballs) by taking those the opposite way for doubles.  I hope he continues to make those adjustments, bc that will be the difference between average player and star.
  • Man is our lineup potent now!  Lewis, Escobar, Buck have been great additions.
  • Finally - what if, just what if the Jays had hung on to Halladay this season, and he was say 11-5 now (conservative with the run support this year).  Would we be having very different discussions these days?
Magpie - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#219752) #
Finally - what if, just what if the Jays had hung on to Halladay this season, and he was say 11-5 now (conservative with the run support this year).  Would we be having very different discussions these days?

Not very likely. First of all, Doc originally replaces the Tallet/Cecil combo in the rotation, which has gone 9-7 in that role anyway. And Cecil wouldn't have received his chance until they pulled the plug on Eveland (where he would indeed have been an upgrade on Litsch.)
Magpie - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#219753) #
Dustin Moseley? I thought the Yanks had an incredible rotation. Advantage: Toronto.

You won't see me counting my chickens before they emerge from the shell. Aaron Small, anyone?
slitheringslider - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#219754) #
I wonder how many Yanks fans were wondering why they couldn't get Bautista instead of Kearns or Bagwell (though I think Bagwell is going to be big for them this year - imagine if Bagwell hits the walk-off dinger to knock the Red Sox out of the wild-card battle)

I wasn't aware Bagwell came back from retirement to play for the Yankees:)

I think the most hated ex-Jay of all time has to be Roger Clemens. If Shea Hillenbrand meant anything to anyone he would be up there as well.
Kasi - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#219755) #
Lind is getting his first ever start at 1B tonight. Should be interesting.
scottt - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#219757) #
I was kinda expecting Overbay to sit since he is 0-for-5 against Moseley.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#219758) #
Most hated ex-jays.. Hmm.. In no particular order, I'd have to agree with Clemens. Add on probably Frank Thomas. For a while it was Robbie Alomar, but I think time has healed that wound for a lot of us. Yeah, Hillenbrand, if he was still playing..

(looking at Wikipedia, lots of 80s flashbacks)
Candidates:
Doyle Alexander with the Tigers
Bill Caudill (apparently works for Scott Boras now, more reason to dislike..)
Joey Hamilton
Dennis Lamp
Al Leiter..
Steve Trachsel (pitched horribly for us, always KILLED us later when we faced him)


Of course, they all pale in comparison to he who shall not be named..

TamRa - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#219759) #
I don't have many hated ex-Jays....I loved Robbie every day, for instance, and really didn't have a big beef with Clemens until the Congressional hearings and since.

Bu5t my usual policy is that i never ever cheer for anyone wearing pinstripes.

The only time I made an exception was for Jimmy Key. I won't say i ever "hated" or rooted against Lieter, and I had pretty warm feelings for Cone - but not while playing for the Yankees.

Probably the ex-Jay i liked the least (of the guys who were actually good - not counting the loazias of the world)was Boomer Wells - but i didn't like him when he was playing for the Jays either.


Chuck - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#219760) #
Alomar's reputation figures to take a hit with recent allegations of domestic abuse.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#219761) #
Most hated ex-jays..

You do remember He Who Must Not Be Named? Lord Voldemort himself? E------ L-----?
Magpie - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#219762) #
Hmm. A more careful perusal reveals that while everyone was unwilling to name He Who Must Not Be Named, he was clearly thought of instantly!

There were guys I pretty much hated while they were Jays - Orlando Merced, Carlos Garcia - so I liked them better once they were gone.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#219764) #
This is fun.  With Snider back, this lineup is tough on most pitchers as there is no resting spot. 
Alex Obal - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#219766) #
Romero. That is all.

brent - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#219769) #

If the front office counts, enemy number one would be Gord Ash (of course, not personally). That guy took over back to back World Series winners. Then think about what JP took over when he came in.

Perhaps I am the only one without a personal hate on for Burnett other than that he plays for NY or Bos. I feel more like that to Rios. I really hated Delgado for about 3 seasons or so until he started breaking down. Really hated Carpenter. The first Alex Gonzalez,  Kelvin Escobar, BJ Ryan.

I was more annoyed with Shawn Green.

Bid - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#219770) #
Shawn Green "...shamelessly used his religion to get out of TO." What an ugly remark. As I recall, Shawn shamelessly used his family being in California to convince the Jays that they wouldn't be able to re-sign him as a free agent and they obliged by trading him to the Dodgers. The really hateful part of that deal was Mondesi.
85bluejay - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#219774) #

Shawn Green... What an ugly remark.

I certainly disagree - As I remember, Shawn Green let it be known through the press that he wanted to go to

LA because he was interested in getting more deeply involved in his Jewish roots - Well, Toronto has a fine

Jewish community and he could have explored it here (he may also have mentioned his family). So, I don't

apologise for making that remark and I have absolutely no respect for Shawn Green. 

Gerry - Tuesday, August 03 2010 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#219775) #

I am late catching up to the trade deadline analysis but here are some perspectives on the deadline, a couple of which I haven't seen discussed.

One: This is AA's first trade deadline and there might have been some "let's test the rookie" going on.  Trades are a game of chicken in many ways and the other GM's might have expected AA to cave with the Jays out of contention and the expectations set by AA that the Jays were going to rebuild the farm system.  By not caving now AA is developing a reputation that should help him set expectations for future deals.

Two: As we have analysed here, the Jays have close to a league average player at each position and have minor league options at every position, with the possible exception of third base.  The Jays don't need another mid-level AAA or AA prospect, they need impact players.  It is easier for a team to get to league average than it is to add marginal wins to an average team.  The Jays are trying to add marginal wins and to do that they need above average players.  If all you are offered is average prospects then why do the deal?  I think this is what AA has been trying to say.

Third: In one of his radio interviews AA mentioned that they have major league performance by position detailed in their offices.  Each player has to be evaluated in the context of position.  He mentioned that the average for a 1B was about 26 home runs and an 800 OPS.  The centre field averages were much lower.  Although he didn't come out and say it he implied that Wallace would be hard pushed to be league average while Gose had a chance to be above average.

 

TamRa - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 02:02 AM EDT (#219779) #
I don't think Wallace would be "hard pressed" to meet those standards but i do think it'd be difficult for him to significantly exceed that level on a regular basis.
China fan - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 02:04 AM EDT (#219780) #
Gerry, thanks for those comments on the trading situation.  I can't convincingly refute anything that you said.  But I think there is a second possibility, a tentative theory that I have been pondering, which is equally plausible.  My theory:  the trading deadline might have been AA's first failure as GM.  Up until now, like most of us, I have loved everything that Anthopolous has done -- including the Wallace-for-Gose deal and everything before it.  But it could be plausibly argued that AA should have done better at the trading deadline.  After all, the Jays have a clear surplus of pitching, especially veteran pitchers, along with a surplus of pitching prospects.  Many contending teams were desperate for pitching.  With that surplus, and that large number of desperate buyers, I think Anthopolous should have been able to do something -- and I mean something more than the equivalent of a sandwich pick in the draft -- especially since those draft picks are far from guaranteed.  There are many scenarios in which the Jays will get less than a sandwich pick for Downs, Frasor, Gregg etc.

Perhaps I'm being a little harsh on Anthopolous -- and let me emphasize that I'm just advancing a possible theory, not making a flat declaration that AA failed.  There are too many imponderables for me to make such a statement.  But if AA failed in this trading-deadline situation, he might be a victim of his own success.  I suspect AA is developing a reputation as a tough, demanding, shrewd, cagey, well-researched negotiator who drives an exceptionally hard bargain.  A number of leaks on MLB Trade Rumors suggested that other GMs were complaining of his trade demands.  Possibly they're getting tired of being fleeced.  From now on, Anthopolous is going to find his job much tougher.  His reputation will precede him.  An occasional failure, as perhaps happened at the trade deadline, may become inevitable.

TamRa - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 02:05 AM EDT (#219781) #
I don't think Wallace would be "hard pressed" to meet those standards but i do think it'd be difficult for him to significantly exceed that level on a regular basis.
TamRa - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 02:09 AM EDT (#219782) #
stupid browser is driving me nuts!

Anyway...CF the counterpoint I'd offer there is that "other GM's" (or more likely insiders in their office) complaining about AA's demands could itself be a negotiating ploy or a PR mechenism.

I like Gerry's argument that he needs to build a reputation of not being a soft touch. Certainly that can be taken to an extreme and freeze out conversations but i don't get the impression that's happening yet.

for now, I'm going to assume he knows what he's doing


China fan - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 02:46 AM EDT (#219784) #
WillRain, I agree with you -- there could be spin on all sides, and it's exceptionally difficult for us (as outsiders) to analyze AA's reputation or the perception of him by other GMs, or the spin that's being deliberately leaked to the media.  But what about my other point?  Surplus of Jays pitching, a number of desperate buyers on the market -- yet he was unable to make a deal.  To me, it seems at least possible that AA may have missed a golden opportunity.  He can't keep all those pitchers forever, and he can't be certain of getting draft picks for them.  It seemed like the perfect opportunity to exploit the greed of the contending teams that needed to add pitching -- yet he failed to do so.

Kelekin - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 03:08 AM EDT (#219786) #
I'm not sure what Delgado did to be hated by anyone.  Granted, he was my favorite Blue Jay and maybe there was something behind the scenes I'm missing.  But he sure was the best hitter we've ever had.
TamRa - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 03:11 AM EDT (#219787) #
for now I'm looking at the rest of the market and what was and wasn't moved and i'm going with the theory that we're just at the point in the cycle when teams are too obsessed with not dealing high upside guys for the current opportunity. The few teams willing to do so alreayd used up most of their bullets (Phillies, for instance)

Conversely, I think Alex is ahead of the curve in terms of figuring the value of compensation picks into the overall value of the player.

The worst case scenario for us in terms of picks is every one of the guys we offer accept arbitartion. Even in that case we still have a lot of excess pitching to deal from or cover for attrition next year. In the long run, it's still better than getting marginal organization filler in return.

All that said, I'm really taking it on faith that he knows better than me in terms of how it affects the development of guys like Arencibia and Roenicke to be blocked out for the rest of the year (September notwithstanding)


Kelekin - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 04:38 AM EDT (#219788) #
Thinking about the whole august waiver situation, and I wonder who is likely to pass through.  Generally if teams think a player could become actually available, they won't place a claim.  I think this will allow Frasor, Overbay, and Buck to be available.  While the Angels are likely falling out of the race, it seems Ryan Howard's injury iin Philly might be more serious than first thought.  How many 1B are still available other than Overbay? It is possible he could end up in Philly, who knows.  I can hope, anyways.
mathesond - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#219789) #
There aren't a whole lot of ex-Jays that I dislike - the one that springs to mind is Al Leiter. I wasn't too keen on Shawn Green's exit strategy either, and I do recall him saying something about Toronto not having a large Jewish community, despite articles in previous years talking about how he was invited to all sorts of bar mitzvahs and seders while in T.O.
AWeb - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 08:06 AM EDT (#219791) #
The Jays now with an ISO (SLG-AVG) of .209; no team has been over .200 since 2005 (Rangers). Before that, the Red Sox in 2003 and Mariners in 1997. Pretty rare territory, especially for a mid-level payroll team.  I tuned in last night in time to see Wells, Bautista and Hill go deep. OBP might be low (four guys over .500 SLG, one over .350 OBP), but the lightning-strike offense is so much fun when it goes well.

Least favourite former Jays:
Clemens...does any fanbase still like this guy?
Billy Koch (most frustrating closer for me ever - throwing 100mph without striking people out) and how much he complained...but didn't it turn out he was actually ill with something bizarre? Still at the time, I recall disliking him a lot.
Gerry - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#219794) #

China Fan:

You could be right, we are all reading into it the way we see it.

ps I am waiting for Magpie to give us some more Yankee fan comments

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#219796) #
We have no idea what Anthopoulos was asking for Downs, aside from what he said about demands from the Red Sox and Yankees.  A same-division luxury premium is an entirely reasonable trading policy, in my view.  There may have been no significant market for any other player, including Buck. 



Anders - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#219798) #

Many contending teams were desperate for pitching.  With that surplus, and that large number of desperate buyers, I think Anthopolous should have been able to do something -- and I mean something more than the equivalent of a sandwich pick in the draft -- especially since those draft picks are far from guaranteed.  There are many scenarios in which the Jays will get less than a sandwich pick for Downs, Frasor, Gregg etc.

It's hard to know what's out there, so I personally don't try to speculate, but the going rate for bullpen help was pretty mixed. Kerry Wood was acquired for cash and a PTBNL, Qualls went for a PTBNL, Will Ohman for Rick Vanden Hurk, the Dodgers sent out James McDonald and a minor leaguer for Octavio Dotel, and the Giants got a couple of guys for flotsam. To be fair, the Nats got Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps, who I would have traded any of our relievers for straight up (Ramos, not Capps), but the organization is pretty strong in catching prospects.

It seems like Brett Wallace may have been the best prospect traded, so I can't beat up on AA too much for holding on to his guys, though I am skeptical that arbitration will be offered and declined successfully for all the guys that are free agents to be.

 

chocolatethunder - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#219800) #

I don't get this....who would sit for Lowell?? as per www.rotoworld.com

In the Yankees deal, it would have been a three-way trade with Texas, with Jarrod Saltalamacchia going to Boston and prospects going to Texas. A deal with the Blue Jays was nixed due to concerns over Lowell playing on artificial turf. It's possible the Sox could still deal Lowell to a team like St. Louis, who is now in need of a third baseman, but it's much less likely now that Kevin Youkilis is on the DL.     ...I think the most likely candidate to be traded is Frasor, chances of him maintaining his type A is in doubt, his salary is reasonable, or maybe I am just being hopeful!
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#219801) #
Torii Hunter has graciously agreed to slide over to right field for Peter Bourjos.  When Gose or Marisnick or some other young dude is ready, I hope that Vernon Wells follows his example rather than that of Bernie Williams. 
mathesond - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#219802) #
Totally off-topic, but it was 27 years ago today that Dave Winfield killed a seagull with a baseball.
Jonny German - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#219804) #
Right on Anders. Capps was the only reliever traded for a high-upside prospect and even at that, Ramos has been having a bad year - .625 OPS in his first go-round in AAA.
 
Capps is certainly better than Gregg or Frasor (seriously? people think Frasor has trade value at this point?). Capps vs. Downs is debatable, with Capps probably much more attractive to Minnesota thanks to the Closer label.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#219807) #

I would have taken James MacDonald for our relievers too but, like Capps, Dotel is probably more valuable than any of our guys.  I'm content with standing pat given what was being thrown around.    The non-waiver could still be interesting, but if not then we'll have to wait till the offseason to see how this plays out. 

Magpie - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#219808) #
Dave Winfield killed a seagull with a baseball.

We were in the house! (Liam's mother and I). Sitting on those metal benches down the RF line, that basically faced the outfield fence. You spent the whole night craning your neck to the left to watch the action... But you did have a splendid view of the outfielders!

I've forgotten everything else about the game, so it was fun to look it up and discover that Don Mattingly was the Yankees' leadoff hitter that night, and Garth Iorg was the Jays #3 hitter.

I did remember that Winfield was playing CF, of course.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#219809) #
Jonny, I don't know that Capps is noticeably better than any of 'em.  His FIP and xFIP over this year (or over a 3 year period) is only somewhat better.  It is only his 1 year ERA that is any better, and for a reliever that doesn't mean much.  If you make the league adjustment, it's pretty much a wash.  Actually, Capps and Camp have a quite similar profile once you make some kind of league adjustment.

FWIW, the situation where Capps has really shone this year and over his career is the low leverage one. 

None of this detracts from the point that Wilson Ramos isn't really a prospect that the Jays would want.  I wonder if Ben Revere was available. 

TheBunk - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#219815) #
How is Dotel more valuable than Scott Downs?
Kasi - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#219816) #
Snider is hitting leadoff today. Interesting move. (I figure he'll go back to 7 when Lewis doesn't have the day off)
D. King - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#219818) #

I have posted a couple of things, but for all intents and purposes I'm a rook. (and reviewing this post, apparently long winded).

I suppose that the fantastic performance that the team has put on the last  two nights has gotten me dreaming, and although the other side of my brain is groaning, I like Mike Green's comment from a bit back - 10.5 games out on August 3rd - doable.  Furthermore, it seems clear to most here that Cito and company are intent on winning as many games as possible instead of treating the final 7-8 weeks as a sort of 2011 try-out camp (an approach that as a fan I completely endorse - if giving some kids a bit of MLB playing time means that I enjoy even one fewer game like last nights, then I say they can stay in the desert).

However - one piece of the MLB team right now gives me pause and stands in the way of my 10 game winning streak dreams:  Jesse Litsch.   I'll admit that I've never really been a Jesse Litsch fan, but it seems to me that I haven't seen a good outing from him in his current stint with the big team (one game score since the beginning of July greater than 50, and only three overall this year).  Cito definitely doesn't seem impressed with him, but given the youth and inning limits for this staff, is there any way that they could send him down?

More importantly, if the miracle Jays were to pull off a stretch run (let me dream) or any sort of competative streak through to the end of the season - heck, regardless of how they play - what is their rotation going to look like?  How will they manage their starters now that the inning limits are not just numbers in the distance, but dead ends quickly approaching?

My attempt at answering this goes as follows: 

Entering todays matinee the Jays have 55 games remaining (not including playoffs... but.. um, we won't worry about that). How many of these 55 can the four Jays starters other than Litsch handle? (Please help me here if I make any errors, as I couldn't find the early season discussion that outlined specific inning limit projections)

Marcum: 2009 - 0 IP,  2008 - 151 IP    -    I'm assuming that Marcum can go somewher like 160 - 170 but that the Jays won't risk too much on his arm this year.  Lets say 160.  Since he sits at 125 now, that leaves him 35 more, so 5 starts.

Romero: 2009 - 178 IP - I am assuming here that he can go to the end of the season which would take him to around 220 - 11 starts.

Morrow: 2009 - 69.2 (MLB) + 55 (AAA) - 124.2 IP -  If he can go to 160 (currently 118) that gives him another 42 innings - 6 starts.

Cecil: 2009 - 93.1 (MLB) + 49 (AAA) - 142.1 IP - If he can go to 170 (currently 112.1) that gives him another 57 innings - 8 starts.

That gives us 30 starts from the starters that we're all comfortable trotting out there every fifth day.  Where to the other 25 come from? Personally I would rather have Zep or Mills up here to Litsch. 

Zep: 2009 - 149 IP (MLB + AAA) - Currently he's at 73 IP combined between MLB and AAA, so he's pretty much good to go the rest of the way.  So, if he came up now... 11 starts.

Mills: 2009 - 92 IP (MLB + AAA)  - Currently he's at 103.1 IP, and could maybe go to 140 (? Help here!), so perhaps another 5 starts.

Litsch: ugh.  As many as we can stomach.

That still leaves 9 starts unaccounted for, so maybe Litsch has to take the mound a few more times for us.  The only other options that I see involve another AAA starter (Broadway?  Ray? Perez?  I think that I'd probably take Litsch over any of these guys), a callup from one of the AA kids (not likely - they're coming up to their limits), or a few starts for mutton chops.  None of these are desireable options.

Another question that I have is how would we make this scenario work?  I mean, the idea that Mills and Morrow would be our #3 Starter for the rest of the season relies on one of them not pitching until the other has completed their half of the remaining season, which obviously won't happen.  So I guess we have to take a guy like Mills out of the equation.  That means that in September, if all of my guess work is right, we'll have a rotation of Romero, Zep, Litsch, and Cecil (for a bit).  What happens then?

D. King - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#219819) #

In another thread John Northey posted: "Makes one wonder if it would be worthwhile to go to a 6 man rotation and have guys go deeper into games. If more rest = more effective then it could be a big asset for the team going forward."

This would help us a bit to work Mills into the lineup while keeping Litsch/Zep as our #5.  We'd still be looking to fill starts at the end of September.

bpoz - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#219820) #
Any gamblers out there?

I am glad AA did not trade JPA. Maybe he tried to and failed. Maybe there is a phenom in A ball some where.

GAMBLING!!! Take the safer college pick or the 17 year old high ceiling guy. If you want to do both then the more sandwiches you have the better.

So if a pick like Wallace,Cooper,Ike Davis is less risky then maybe choose a few and see what happens.
They can be traded for Gose like players later on. AA can lose if Gose becomes nothing and Wallace becomes an OK major league player.

This is Overbay's 5th year with the Jays. If his potential was 30Hr and 100rbi then fine if not then should his type be our 1st baseman for 5 years as hopeful contenders? A contender should always be looking for that extra edge, even if it is just insurance or a stronger bench.

AA is dealing for the future and he should BUT the present looks pretty good. Is 2011 good enough? I really am wondering about it. We have about 8 good SPs, potential 100rbi guys for 2011 are Wells, Bautista,Hill and Lind (1st or DH), Snider and JPA must play and could also be 100rbi guys (AA called JPA and told him that he is ready I believe), J Escobar is very good. So AA has to solve the closer, 1st and 3rd positions, they don't have to be permanent solutions. Cheap Delgado/Dye or expensive Thome. Closer?

JP and K Law don't think AA is fleecing everyone. We will see.
Gerry - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#219822) #

D King:

I agree that Cito is not a big fan of Litsch and if the Jays were to trade a starter in the off-season Litsch might be the prime candidate.  But his value is lower right now as he works his way back.  Remember he is coming back from TJ surgery.  That can take time.  Marcum pitched a bit in 2009 and had the off-season to recover, Litsch is right back in there.

There is another way to look at your pitching puzzle.  You can't call Zep up now unless you drop someone from the roster.  So look at it this way.  The Jays have enough starts from their starters to get through August.  Rosters expand in September.  You need three extra starters in September.  Zep and Mills are two.  Shawn Hill, who is pitching well for New Hampshire today could be number 3.  Or Bobby Ray, or Rommie Lewis, or some other pitcher.  This is a September problem.

ramone - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#219824) #
Gerry, do you think that with Stewart approaching his innings limit and possibly moving to the bullpen that he may be called up in september for the bullpen?
Jonny German - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#219825) #
That's a nice breakdown D.King. Unlike you I like Jesse Litsch, so I'm inclined to spin his season in a positive direction - you say only 1 game score over 50 since June (nice use of arbitrary cutoff),  I say he's only let 1 game get out of reach since his season debut.
 
Which isn't to say I think he's been good. Overall he hasn't been, but he's coming off the slicing & dicing of his elbow. That used to be a big deal! I'd keep running him out there the rest of the way (~11 starts). 2010 is a much better time for figuring out if he has a future as a starting pitcher than 2011 will be. 
D. King - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#219827) #

You can't call Zep up now unless you drop someone from the roster. 

Is Litsch out of options? 

Gerry - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#219828) #
I don't think Stewart will be called up.  First, New Hampshire will probably be in the playoffs.  Second, he will be at or very close to his limit so why bring him up to not pitch.  Third, I don't think Stewart needs to be added to the 40 man roster yet (drafted in 2008) so why burn a spot on him?
Gerry - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#219829) #

Is Litsch out of options? 

I thought you were trying to get enough starts for the starters, that was the reason for my comment.  If you want to argue that Zep is a better pitcher than Litsch that is another discussion.  Just remember that Zep, like Litsch, doesn't go deep into games and tends to get pulled in the sixth or early seventh.  Zep and Litsch have some similarities like that.  I haven't seen enough of Zep this year to see how good his new change-up is but he was playing with fire and dodging bullets a lot of last year too.

D. King - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#219830) #

2010 is a much better time for figuring out if he has a future as a starting pitcher than 2011 will be. 

If you want to argue that Zep is a better pitcher than Litsch that is another discussion. 

I was advocating this switch, mostly out of frustration from the past couple of starts.  I don't have any specific reason to think that Zep would be an improvement (though his ERA since the all star break is 2.03 right now, so he could simply be hotter right now - not enough of a reason).  I see the argument in giving him some time to work things out and get into a groove - especially if he is seen as a potential trading piece. 

 

TamRa - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#219852) #
regarding Zep v. Litsch...obviously I've never seen either in person, nor am i a scout anyway.

but all the things I've read about the two, respectively, indicates Zep has a considerably higher ceiling.

when people write about Litsch it's usually with a bit of a mistified sense which implies he's getting away with better results than his stuff suggests.


When people write about Zep it seems to imply that he has the stuff to sustain the previous level or get better. i seem to recall at least one piece that compared him positively to Brandon Webb.

Based on all that I've always assumed that Litsch is essentially a placeholder but that Zep MIGHT be a guy who would be difficult to push aside for Drabek et al.

That said, as much as it grinds my gears to have Zep down - i do recognize that there's value in building Litsch's potential trade value by running him out there and hoping he rounds into form.


Jonny German - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#219854) #
Top Blue Jays starters in the past 5 years among qualifiers, by ERA+:

156 Roy Halladay 2009
152 Roy Halladay 2008
143 Roy Halladay 2006
126 Shaun Marcum 2010*
121 Roy Halladay 2007
121 Ricky Romero 2010*
119 AJ Burnett 2007
118 Jesse Litsch 2007

Okay, so he's no Roy Halladay. But that 2007 season was not out of nowhere. It was a nice step forward in his peripheral stats over his rookie campaign (also 118 ERA+, 111 innings), which came on the heels of an excellent minor league career.

At 25 years old the man deserves a reasonable chance to show if the surgery has reduced his value. 9 starts is not a reasonable chance, and giving him 11 more starts this year is a no-lose proposition for the franchise.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 04 2010 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#219857) #
It appears that Litsch needed more time in the minors to adapt his repertoire to his post-injury capabilities.  In 2007-08, he was throwing a lot of cutters and they were his most effective pitch.  He's cut that back and is throwing many more fastballs, and a few more change-ups. Mind you, Shaun Marcum would probably be a good person for Litsch to listen to, and so he might do as well adapting in the major leagues as he would in New Hampshire or Las Vegas.
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