AA might have made the right move by not making one  (only time will tell I believe the cliche is!)  but here's what I don't like. Cito Gaston is a lame duck manager for the rest of the season and we know his philosophy. His one objective will be to compile the best record possible, perhaps above .500 being his goal. To do so he will stick with what he considers to be his tried and true veterans who have NOT been dealt. Therefore count on seeing Overpay play the majority of games at first, Snider batting 9th (when he plays) Buck being the #1 catcher and getting most starts.  It will be the same old bullpen trotting out there every night, half of whom won't be here next year. So on and so on. I was looking forward to seeing Lind at first, some playing time for JP in September, and of course at one point Brent Wallace, among other changes. They may have lost more games but it would be the start and preview of the future. Watching the changing of the guard is exciting, fighting for .500 not so much

The other thing is that the doings and non-doings of the last 2 weeks indicate to me that AA is looking at contending in 4-5 years and not in 2-3 that a lot of us may have hoped for. It may be that he feels that the albatross of the Wells contract will not allow them to be there in the short term. In the AL East the perfect storm is needed so he may be right doing so.  I have never  forgotten the black day they gave that ridiculous contract to V-Dub. The option at the time was trade him for a couple of good prospects and use the money saved on free agents. Where would they be now if JP hadn't given the bank away?

I've been as tough on JP as anybody, but I don't think you can blame him totally for Wells contract as that probably

was mostly Mr. Politician  Paul Godfrey (same with the Delgado & Gonzalez extensions during Gord Ash regime)

Boy, that guy was a horrible presidents for fans, glad he's not with the Post. You can blame JP(& Ash) for not

fighting hard enough if they felt it was the wrong move (as lots of us fans believed at the time)

While I agree that seeing more of the kids play would be fun, you also have to look at the big picture.  The Jays DO plan to contend again at some point. At that point, they probably WILL have to sign a couple of veterans or 1-2 year rental players. And probably overpay as it is for those free-agents.

If they throw Overbay (who isn't retiring, but is looking to get a good contract for himself in the off-season for a few years) under the bus, his stats will look pretty bad in the off-season. However, if they keep playing him, he can improve his stats, meaning he gets a better contract next year. This makes Toronto MORE ATTRACTIVE for a free agent to sign - knowing that they won't get thrown under the bus during their last 2 months if the team is out of it, but they need a contract next year.

However, it's not JUST helping Overbay, but - according to the Elias Rankings, he's played his way from a 42 to start the year up to a 52. With some luck (especially now that he's on a roll and hitting much better), he just might get the 60 needed to be a type B free agent. If he makes it - cha-ching, compensation pick.

Also, John Buck is barely at the B cutoff (lowest catcher to be ranked). You want him to keep playing to make sure he stays type B. Same with Kevin Gregg, for example, if we aren't going to re-sign him. Etc.

With the trade deadline having passed and minor league seasons winding down, would this be a decent time to dust off the Canadian prospects thread robertdudek posted back in early April? 

Linkage: http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20100405052540728

The top 10 then, with a few cursory observations:

1. Micheal Saunders -- OF, SEA; the most advanced of the list and in the show now at 23, one of the few Mariners OPS+-ing over 100 (106), Paul O'Neill-type in the making? 

2. Nick Weglarz -- OF, CLE: age 22 and flirting with .900 OPS at both AA and AAA in pitchers' leagues; starting gig in the show next year?

3. Brett Lawrie -- 2B, MIL: OPS-ing just over .800 in AA at age 20; the bat looks ML-ready soon, the glove might be another story

4. Phillipe Aumont -- RP, PHI: conversation from SP to RP then back to SP has been ugly and progress might have been rushed by both SEA and PHI, still just 21 though

5. Tyson Gillies -- OF, PHI: huge year at A+ in 2009, but just over 113 PAs at AA in 2010 at age 21 due to injury, will be a feel good story if he makes the bigs despite severe hearing disability 

6. Rene Tosoni -- OF, MIN; now 24 and repeating AA w/ .790 OPS

7. Cale Iorg -- SS, DET; also repeating AA at age 24, hits like his old man and probably unlikely to make the bigs as anything more than a John McDonald-type, but the WBC team needs middle infielders...

8. Blake Hawkworth -- SP/RP, STL; swing-man for the Cards at age 27, but hasn't been able to repeat fluky success of 2009 call-up

9. Taylor Green -- 3B, MIL; .800 OPS in age 23 season at AA, has acquitted himself quite well for a 25th rounder

10. Chris Leroux -- RP, FLA; now 27, has had decent peripherals through minor league career and spent part of this season in the pen for the Marlins with little success in a small sample size

Meanwhile, personal fave 27-year-old RJ Swindle, he of the pinpoint control, high K rates, and low hits/9, continues to languish in AAA for his 6th organization.  You kind of wonder what a guy has to do if he can't earn a bullpen spot with teams like the Indians or Brewers despite not having posted an ERA above 3 since 2005 or above 2 since 2007.

Looking forward to comments from those who know these players better than I...

If they throw Overbay (who isn't retiring, but is looking to get a good contract for himself in the off-season for a few years) under the bus, his stats will look pretty bad in the off-season. However, if they keep playing him, he can improve his stats, meaning he gets a better contract next year. This makes Toronto MORE ATTRACTIVE for a free agent to sign - knowing that they won't get thrown under the bus during their last 2 months if the team is out of it, but they need a contract next year.

I'm sympathetic re the comp pick, but on this point - I disagree.

Specifically - the odds that a potential free agent signee for, shall we say, 2013, will both (a) remember what happened to a departing free agent 2-3 years ago: and (b) consider himself such a marginal talent as to be benchable in any case; and (c) relate what happened in a rebuilding you to what's likely to happen in a potential contending year - are pretty low, i expect.

Where would they be now if JP hadn't given the bank away?

Banking more money.

They have as much as they chose to spend right now - and they choose not to spend it. Adding Wells' money to that til does nothing to change the Plan.

As much as I want to see JPA and others, which seemed to be the plan at the start of the season from the many times we were told this would be a good year to find out who is worth keeping around, I am always happy with the chance of draft pick compensation.  Frasor is back down to a type B so there's at least a better chance than before that he won't accept, with the way AL catchers have played this year Buck would very easily be able to find a deal, and while it's a slim chance, Overbay -could- make a type B but who knows if he accepts or not.  We don't know the real answers to any of these.

I never expected we would compete in 2-3 years myself.  If you're trying to stock the farm system with high ceiling young international FAs and high-schoolers for the most part, it takes the majority of them a few years to make it and even then maybe another couple to mke a true impact.  I like that AA is trying to build the team for long-term success, instead of a chance to make a quick run.

I believe that there will be an additional team added to the playoffs after the next cba and possibly changes in the draft also. I think the plan is to spend heavily on the draft this year and next while they can. It also makes more sense to try and compete when there is a genuine opportunity to make the post season. With another team in the playoffs, which some commentators believe is all but a done deal, the Jays could finish 3rd in the AL east and still qualify. Makes sense to me.

With regard to the timeline for winning, I don't get the sense that AA has a definite time-frame in mind. I don't think he thinks in terms of 2-3 years or 4-5 years. I think his plan is to make the team competitive with high-impact, largely home-grown talent as fast as possible.

The acquisition of Gose or Hechevarria doesn't, in my view, point to a specific timetable, it points to the need to fill the system at all levels with high-ceiling talent, so that winning becomes a constant possibility.

It is interesting to speculate. Looking at the team we have a rotation that is super cheap (only Marcum is arbitration eligible this offseason I think) and has a range in age of 23 to 28 with Mills & Rzep both 25 or less. The only guy over 28 to start was Tallet who doesn't figure into any future. Meanwhile the pen is 28+ for everyone with 20+ IP suggesting any 'losers' from the rotation battle have plenty of open slots in the pen. For offense we have only Overbay and Wells on the wrong side of 30.

This is a young team that is showing signs of gelling into something good. This is a 2012 contender potentially, 2011 if everything goes right. That is a very good thing.

I suspect AA is looking at the team and seeing that few slots will be open in 2011 thus you want prospects for 2012-2015 who will be able to hold the team up there once it starts fighting for titles. Escobar was a vital piece imo, as it filled the biggest hole at the ML level (Gonzalez was not going to stay at that level for long I suspect).

I've always regarded Alex Belth's Bronx Banter as one of the better team-oriented sites on the InterWebs, but I do I enjoy it a whole lot more when the Yankees lose...

monkeypants
Arod seems to be pressing the last few games. I wonder what the deal is.

jjmerlock
I don’t know about anyone else, and I don’t mean to suggest that hitting a home run isn’t a feat of amazing and refined skill, but please, for the love of God, just hit the damn thing already.
We have a pennant race going on here, and this sideshow needs to go away like three games ago.
I can only imagine what this is like for him, because it’s wearing me the heck out.

Just Fair
Good AJ. Bad AJ. Bad AJ. Good AJ.

williamnyy23
AJ Burnett is exhibit A about why mental makeup can be as important as “stuff”. I am not sure why so many people get frustrated about Burnett. He has been the same pitcher his entire career. He is either great or bad. You’d think Girardi would stop getting caught with his pants down, but for some reason he feels compelled to let AJ implode before lifting him.

Mattpat11
I just don’t like AJ Burnett

Mr. OK Jazz TOKYO
So how bad was it watching AJ? Should I risk skimming the whole game thread?

monkeypants
well, it wasn’t too bad for four of the innings, then really, really, really, really, really, really bad for one of the innings.

jjmerlock
It was agony. I used bad words.

williamnyy23
I’d love to have that Gardner AB back and see what would have happened if they could have tried something creative. Seemed like the perfect opportunity to really take the Jays by surprise.

Mattpat11
We don’t do plays

RIYank
Girardi’s an idiot.

monkeypants
Girardi has made some goofy decisions the last couple of days with his new players. I’m not sure he can be trusted with a deeper bench.

williamnyy23
Let’s face it. Girardi is a poor game manager. The Yankees are not going to win if they are depending on him to make sound decisions.

The Hawk
Joba is so weird. Is he awesome or terrible? I’d be more optimistic if AJ Burnett wasn’t here reminding me every fifth game that you can make a career out of the Jekyll and Hyde routine.

williamnyy23
Joba is AJ Burnett. They both have live arms, but not much working upstairs it seems. When I watch C.C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, for example, I have confidence because you know they know what they are doing. Burnett and Joba just throw the ball.

The Hawk
Yeah, though I slightly disagree. I think at least in Joba’s case it’s better if he does just throw the ball. I have suffered through some of the most excruciating baseball viewing because of his “thinking”.
Burnett too a little. He cannot handle any kind of bump in the road, of any kind, it seems. Gets the wheels turning and next thing you know we’re off to the races.

The Hawk
If A Rod comes to the plate, I bet he spontaneously combusts before a pitch is thrown

Mattpat11
I really, really don’t like Nick posing and staring at the ball that makes it 8-6

williamnyy23
Gardner, Tex and Arod combined to go 1-13, so it’s nice to see they benefitted from their days off yesterday.

RIYank
If they had pulled off the comeback, and AJ came out and hit A-Rod with pie, do you think Alex would have punched him in the face?

williamnyy23
“There’s a lot of things that baffle me” – AJ Burnett in the postgame.
I think that just about says it perfectly.

By the way, Brandon Morrow is now statistically better than A. J. Burnett by almost every metric.   And his salary is a tiny fraction of Burnett's salary.  Who needs high-priced free agents?

I'm a small, small man for thinking this way, but I love when we beat AJ.

Cito looked downright progressive putting Downs in to clean up that mess in the 6th inning.

And really, I can't say I fault the man if he plays his vets the rest of the way.  I think we online observers sometimes forget that the purpose of baseball is to win games, and while some stathead fans (myself included) might want to see some roster machinations that best equip us to compete next year, the average ticket buying fan want to see a win - as do the players.  Trading your vets for minimal returns or benching them to watch a bunch of rookies nobody knows outside of spring training does not create a winning atmosphere in the clubhouse, nor does it help the morale of the players. 

I always loved watching AJ Burnett when he was a Blue Jay, probably the same reason I loved Ted Lilly when he was here, and the reason I love Jersey Shore. Things are either spectacular or a trainwreck, never a dull moment. While it is infuriating to watch bi-polar pitchers from time to time, I wonder if being either great or atrocious is better for a team's record then being consistently mediocre. Let's take a look at 2 hypothetical pitchers who ends the year with identical stats, both with a 4 ERA.

Pitcher A: made 34 starts, 17 of them he threw shutouts, the other 17 he gets bombed for 8ER.
Pitcher B: made 34 starts, gave up 4ER in each of his starts.

Which of the 2 pitchers who you rather have? With pitcher A, you are basically guaranteed 17 wins from his starts, and with pitcher B, his record is largely luck dependent. I think most people would prefer pitcher B because they know what to expect everytime out and won't get taken to a rollar coaster ride every time he takes the mound, but in reality player A is the more predictable commodity because you know you will win x number of games a year with him on the mound. That's the thing I have with Ted Lilly and AJ Burnett, when they struggle, they are awful but at the end of the year look at their record and they will have enough spectacular outings to make things worth it.

some stathead fans (myself included) might want to see some roster machinations that best equip us to compete next year

I would also point out that not-trying-to-win (besides alienating the players and fans) also lets you in for a mess of Bad Karma....

I know I'm always immensely pleased when some NBA or NHL team tanks the second half of the season, angling for lottery position - only to get totally screwed by the ping-pong balls. It serves them right, I always say.

Well, Cito always looks like he's not trying to win with his no pinch hitting policy and his weird pitching changes.

I doubt the fan will be too upset if Overbay is on the bench.

We should see JPA in September and if he's to play in Toronto, the fans will have to get used to him. Not that the crowds are that big.
Besides, August is a tough month for the Jays.

Do we know who's playing 1B next year? Maybe we don't.

and the reason I love Jersey Shore.

...

I would also point out that not-trying-to-win (besides alienating the players and fans) also lets you in for a mess of Bad Karma....

Well said, Magpie. Negative energy is really only going to attract more negative energy.

I have no problem with the young guys being slowly acclimated to the majors, earning their playing time while they sit back and watch the vets for a bit.

Banking more money.

They have as much as they chose to spend right now - and they choose not to spend it. Adding Wells' money to that til does nothing to change the Plan.

WillRain, you are presuming they wouldn't have spent the money back then. Why not?  If they were willing to spend it on Wells, why wouldn't they have spent it on 2 free agents in the 5-10M range. Along with the prospects that  Wells could have brought the whole scene could be different now.  The fact that they are not spending it now is a completely different matter. The company line is that they will spend it when the foundation is there.  Whether they do or not is a moot point when discussing their past spending. They spent it on V-Dub so yes, they were willing to spend it then rather than bank it at that time.

 

More from Bronx Banter. After the initial complaints about Girardi...

omarcoming
I was just in the Bay area. They think Joe Maddon is a bad mgr. Fans are always questioning his lineups.

jjmerlock
I don’t think people believed me when I mentioned this. Rays fans think the manager is the only thing that’s held the team back from winning a World Series. They think Maddon’s an idiot.

Dimelo
The funny thing is, I travel to Tampa quite a bit and when I’m there I listen to their local sports radio; they all want Maddon fired over there. They really don’t like him.

La plus c'est change, la plus c'est meme chose!

La plus c'est change, la plus c'est meme chose!

And all the native Quebeckers at this site suddenly cringe.

plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose?

Better? (I should never write anything that's not originally in English from memory. With the possible exception of "veni, vidi, vici."

WillRain, you are presuming they wouldn't have spent the money back then. Why not?

Not necessary to presume that.

A. Most likely a lesser free agent signed in 2006 is either gone now or in his last year.

B. A free agent is just as likely to have turned out to be, for instance, BJ Ryan - as a diffrence maker now (i.e. hurt or ineffective)

To say "where would they be now?" usually implies "a lot better" but you can't take that as a given. I'll admit that if they had spent Wells' money on two free agents who combined made the same money on deals lasting at least 4 years they wouldn't be banking any more today - but that doesn't mean they'd be getting more production out of those two than they are getting right now out of Wells.



  If they were willing to spend it on Wells, why wouldn't they have spent it on 2 free agents in the 5-10M range. Along with the prospects that  Wells could have brought the whole scene could be different now.

Or he could have brought the equivilant of John-Ford Griffin and Jason Arnold and nothing would be different now.


 The fact that they are not spending it now is a completely different matter. The company line is that they will spend it when the foundation is there.  Whether they do or not is a moot point when discussing their past spending. They spent it on V-Dub so yes, they were willing to spend it then rather than bank it at that time.

That much is true. It just doesn't mean we have to assume they'd be any better now. After all, Where is BJ Ryan right now? Where is Arnold?

Brad Mills had a nice start last night for the 51s (he gave up 4 earned runs with a 12 run lead, but went 7 innings).  I'd like to see him back in Toronto in the bullpen.  At this point, I think that he's a better pitcher than Tallet.

The catching situation is a bit more difficult.  From a development perspective, it would probably be better if Arencibia was up in the majors two weeks ago or more, learning the ropes from an old hand.  On the other hand, it's not really clear that he's better than John Buck at this point.

I am a bit late to the party here as I was in Boston for the long weekend to see a couple of Boston walk-off wins.

But with Cito managing the Jays in September he will favour the veterans, especially those who are about to be free agents.  If I were GM I don't think I would call up too many guys from AAA to sit on the bench.  I think for the hitters JPA and Mike McCoy get recalled, I doubt Brad Emaus does as Encarnacion could be a free agent at the end of the year.

The pitching side will be interesting, you have a lot of arms that could be recalled.  Rommie Lewis, Jesse Carlson, Josh Roenicke, Jeremy Accardo, Brad Mills, and Marc Rzepczynski could each expect a call.  Will the Jays call up all six?  They might need to rest a few starters to limit their innings and the Jays might also want to showcase some arms before the winter trading season so Mills and Zep could be recalled on that basis.  Do the Jays need four more relievers in September?  Probably not.

plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose? Better? (I should never write anything that's not originally in English from memory. With the possible exception of "veni, vidi, vici."

I shall now unclench my shoulders. I thank you.

Interesting note re "veni, vidi, vici", which I learned while being corrected: when you pronounce it in proper Latin, and not a pseudo-Italian variation of Latin, it sounds far less manly and assertive: waynee, weedee, weekee.

"Veni, vidi, vici" hopefully will be an appropriate thing for Travis Snider to say on Wednesday at dinner time.  Nice pitching matchup tomorrow afternoon, Marcum vs. Hughes.  It'll be hard to justify working...

So for 2011 what is the lineup (assuming no trades/releases outside of the obvious)?

CA: JPA/free agent defensive first guy
1B: Lind
2B: Hill
3B: Encarnacion
SS: Escobar
LF: Snider
CF: Wells
RF: Bautista
DH: Lewis (rotate with outfield/1B)
UT: McDonald
UT: Wise
UT: Another free agent infielder

SP: Marcum
SP: Romero
SP: Morrow
SP: Cecil
SP: Litsch/Rzep/Mills/Drabek/Hill/100's of others

Closer: Gregg (depending on option)
RP: Camp
RP: Janssen
RP: Purcey
RP: Tallet
RP #6-7: Any of Carlson, Accardo, Lewis, Roenicke, losers for rotation slot, ...

I suspect Purcey is putting himself into the closer for 2011 battle as he is the only guy currently on the roster and not a free agent who 'looks' like one (able to K a lot of guys, doing well in 2010).

A lot fewer holes than I expected, and a lot of talent there. Even with no additions I think that would be a good team.

Not a bad squad, and with plenty of depth.

Two big questions, IMO:

1. Can 2-3 of Snider/Lind/Bautista/Wells give us legit contender middle of the order punch - i.e. 2-3 of them comfortably over .850ops and preferably challenging for .900 or more?
2. Can any of our bullpen arms emerge as a legit closer?

If both those questions are answered YES, then that team there has a legit chance to make the playoffs.

 

And, of course, they have a ton of money available to answer those questions from outside as well. 

I could see that last bench player being Emaus....I like Purcey for the closer and letting Gregg go. if we get a draft pick out of Gregg that would be swell and there will be options as good as he is on the free agent market if we decide we are scared of a Purcey/Roenicke/ Janssen whoever competition for the job.

I am not sure that Encarnacion will be back next season.  His 2010 salary is $5m so he would expect to get $7m-$8m next season (that's a WAG, I am not a salary expert).  His OPS+ this season is 106 and his WAR is 0.9.  He is headed for a WAR of 1.1 to 1.4.   A WAR at that level is worth around $5m to $7m so the Jays might look and say he is over priced.  Of course they could do a deal pre-arb, but that depends on Edwin and his agent.  Also they could say that Edwin has been a lot better on both sides over the last 2 months and his expected WAR next season would be 2.0.  In that case he might be worth $8m.

Again I am not an expert at this but the Jays will be looking at it in this context and also looking at what the free agent options are, as well as Brad Emaus.

Gregg's actually the one vet in the 'pen I want to keep.

Downs is great and all but I'm sick of his follies v. TB and BOS. I'm ready to move on there.

Camp/Tallet are easily replaceable soft-tossing fodder.

Gregg has actually been pretty awesome this year, aside from some troubles when used in back to back games. And he's got the closer "mentality" going I think.

Of course, I'd rather bring in an even better closer, but Gregg has been pretty darn good there.

Specifically - the odds that a potential free agent signee for, shall we say, 2013, will both (a) remember what happened to a departing free agent 2-3 years ago: and (b) consider himself such a marginal talent as to be benchable in any case; and (c) relate what happened in a rebuilding you to what's likely to happen in a potential contending year - are pretty low, i expect.

Just thinking about it - in some ways, the Overbay thing is the direct opposite of the Frank Thomas approach. I'm pretty sure the FT thing soured a few veterans on JP. Hopefully AA is getting a better rep around the league..

So for 2011 what is the lineup (assuming no trades/releases outside of the obvious)?

CA: JPA/free agent defensive first guy

IIRC, we have an option on Molina, and I hope they pick that up.. Unless Buck's willing to come back cheap and apprentice JPA?

Good catch - Molina does have a 2011 option for $1 million with a $200k buyout so the actual cost is $800k. Not bad for a backup, about double the minimum.

The big challenge will be - do you take on all of Aaron Hill's option years now or write off the ability to ever take on 2014's. This offseason AA has to decide if Hill will be worth $10 million in 2014. After 2011 he must decide if Hill is worth $8 million per year for 2012/2013. Hill will get $5 million for 2011.

Gregg has a 2011/2012 option - either $4.5 million for 2011, $8.75 for 2011/2012 (equal to $4.25 for 2012), or a $750k buyout.

3 choices. Molina seems an easy one, but Gregg and Hill are not so easy.

What's starting to interest me, in regards to Hill, is just how good Emaus' minor league numbers are this year, at two levels. Comparing pretty nicely to Hill's own minor league numbers, even though he's a year behind age wise. And they become especially interesting if it's true that last year Brad was slown down by injury the whole year.

Will Rain, it is true we will never know, but with 2 free agents and 2 prospects the odds are in our favour. You can't just say they might have been a bust. (though with JP in charge you do have a point) We could not have been worse off, given Wells' contribution since then. Even when he has good totals he is poor in the clutch. His RISP and the late and close stat (which I have trouble finding)  is very telling on Wells' value. Even now having a "bounce back"  year  he probably won't reach 100 RBI  Forgetting about the past though, the truth is that until 2015 they have an albatross that is costing them 24-25 million a year and I am thinking that has to affect AA's thinking and his moves.   

Edwin Encarnacion.  Hmm.  Things have pretty much equalized for him now offensively.  His BABIP has arrived roughly where it should be, given his LD rate, his FB rate and his IFFB rate.  OPS+ overstates his value.  He's basically a league average hitter, maybe a smidge above.  The crux of the matter is defensive.  He looks bad.  If you look at a two or three year period (as MGL or John Dewan would advise), he's a -4 to -7 player defensively, which makes him a 1 to 1.5 WAR player overall (2 WAR is league average).  You don't want this at more than $4 million per year. 

4.8 walks per 9 IP is not that good imo. Gregg is marginal for keeping to my mind.

Lets look a bit closer in the game logs...

4 times he gave up more than 1 run, 6 more times just 1 run.

16 times he had 3 up 3 down (well, 15 with a 4 up 4 down time as well).

Just one runner left for him has scored, but just 4 times he was brought in with runners on (7 runners on, 1 scored).

24 saves and 2 holds vs 4 blown saves. 2 were 1 run leads, 2 were 2 run leads. 3 blown were on back-to-back games while the other was on one day rest.

With 3 days rest he has allowed 3 runs over 15 1/3 IP - 1.76 ERA.
With 2 days he allowed 3 runs over 8 2/3 IP - 3.12 ERA
With 1 days rest he allowed 2 runs over 7 2/3 IP - 2.35 ERA
With 0 days rest he allowed 9 runs over 10 IP - 8.10 ERA

Hmm... looks pretty clear. He threw on 0 days rest 11 times and allowed runs in 4 of those games, twice more than 1 run.

In truth, it doesn't look as bad as I expected. 2.85 ERA if you remove his worst game vs his 3.67 actual ERA. His wildness looks bad, but one game he walked 5 - remove it and that 4.8 goes down to a high but better 3.73 BB/9 IP. Those both happened the same day - June 1st (0 days rest of course, 4th game in a row).

Maybe he is worth keeping for another year, as long as next years manager knows to avoid 2 days in a row and to never let him go 3 or 4 days straight.

exactly the breakdown I was looking at.

Now, it's no great thing to have to say that you can't use your "closer" in back to back games....but given how few dominant closers there are out there...having one that's "lights out" EXCEPT when used on back to back nights isn't half bad.

The first base situation is interesting.  If the club is going to give Lind the job next year, you'd think that he would be getting a lot of work there now. 

No shock they aren't giving Lind tons of 1B time. The Jays current management seems to be of the mind to avoid 'embarrassing' a guy by putting him in a position to fail. Giving Lind the winter to work out at 1B, to practice taking ground balls there and to practice catching throws should do far more than 20 or 30 games right now. Mix in spring training and you've got a lot of potential game action before he would have to be at 100%.

Plus, if Overbay can move to type B status then the Jays get a draft pick that could be another Brett Cecil, or Dustin McGowan, or Zack Jackson..er..or Justin Jackson or Trystan Magnuson or one of those 3 guys drafted this year (that covers the 2000's for 1s picks for the Jays). At least a 1 in 8 odds of a solid player (if you don't count McGowan as solid and none of the 3 from this year make it). I'd say that is worth keeping Lind at DH and rotating the outfielders and Encarnacion.

well now, guess who's starting at 1B tonight?

So much for that - Lind gets the start tonight at 1B.

Lind gets the start tonight at 1B.

Overbay had started the last 72 games at 1b (since shortly before Randy Ruiz left the scene), and has appeared in all but one of the team's games this season.

Even when [Wells] has good totals he is poor in the clutch. His RISP and the late and close stat (which I have trouble finding)  is very telling on Wells' value.

Split          G PA AB  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BAVG  OBP  SLG   OPS 
2 outs, RISP  37 43 35  8  5  0  2  14  0  0  7  7 .229  .372 .543  .915
Late & Close  49 63 60 20  6  0  3   8  2  1  3  8 .333  .365 .583  .948

Hmm. Could be worse.

Fangraphs FA$ metric has Vernon as worth $10.7m so far this year.

Also could be worse.

I'm fine with the lineup discussions, but why would Tallet be here next year? Doesn't his contract run out, and even if not there is a half dozen pitchers in the minors who could spot start better then him. (Richmond and Mills among them)

Camp/Tallet are easily replaceable soft-tossing fodder.

Huh? Camp?

Everybody is easily replaced - there is no shortage of professional baseball players. Replacing somebody good with someone equally good is not so easy.

I'm pretty sure Lyle won't get offered arbitration, as he will likely get a lot less mney as a free agent.

Over the last 3 years, Camp's ERA, FIP and xFIP are in the slightly above average range.  With Downs and Frasor likely departing, you would probably want him back provided the price is right.

Another typical day in the AL East.  The O's defeat the Angels.  The Red Sox and Rays lead late over the Indians and Twins respectively.  And the Blue Jays defeat the Yankees handily.  Tip of the cap to mylegacy who told us of this latter development in advance.  10 and 1/2 out on August 3?  Doable.  :)

Can 2-3 of Snider/Lind/Bautista/Wells give us legit contender middle of the order punch - i.e. 2-3 of them comfortably over .850ops and preferably challenging for .900 or more?

Bautista already has an OPS of .972 this season, and Wells is currently at .862, while Snider is at .840 and rising fast.   So, yeah, I think the Jays should have legitimate middle-of-the-order punch in 2011, unless there's a sharp decline by any of those three.   Lind also has a good chance to regain his slugging power in 2011, and Arencibia could be another supplier of slugging power next season.   The Jays are leading the entire major leagues in home runs.  And they're hitting a lot of doubles too.  I'm not too worried about their slugging next season, I'm more worried about their OBP.   That's where Escobar, Hill and Lewis need to step up.

I'm pretty sure Lyle won't get offered arbitration, as he will likely get a lot less money as a free agent.

Except of course that the money he gets via arbitration isn't guaranteed. the jays can cut him on March 30 (or thereabouts) and pay 1/6 of his contract.

Fella's got to think about that before he accepts arbitration.

CA: JPA/Molina
1B: Lind (rotate at DH)
2B: Hill
3B: Bautista (rotate with EE or UT)
SS: Escobar
LF: Lewis (they want Lewis/Escobar up front, barring a deal for a leadoff)
CF: Wells
RF: Snider (rotate at DH, Bautista RF sometimes)
DH: EE/JPA/free agent (rotate at 1st)
UT: Wise
UT: 2 of McCoy/Eamus/Hoffpauir

SP: Marcum
SP: Romero
SP: Morrow
SP: Cecil
SP: Litsch/Rzep/Mills/Drabek/Hill. Will depend partly on who's still here after off-season deals.

Closer: Wide open
RP: Purcey
RP: Camp
RP: Some of Janssen, Carlson, Accardo, Lewis, Roenicke, losers for rotation slot, possible trades

This could actually be a dangerous team.

Possible off-season trades are the big, big wild card in all of this. I personally think Bautista's most productive position in RF, but 3B are thin in the majors right now; he may just be too valuable at 3rd, and there's Snider to consider.

The biggest weakness in this projected team is the bullpen, unless someone steps up. Or a deal is done. I'd personally rather live a bit dangerously and not pick up Gregg's option. That would either clear for a real closer via deal, or create more opportunities in the bullpen. The risk is that the team essentially repeats 1983... but the bottom line is that Gregg is NOT a real closer solution, and we WILL need one to emerge or must buy one.

Absent a trade, Purcey/Zep/Roenicke/Accardo/Camp/Mills would be a cheap but very interesting bullpen, I think.

Except of course that the money he gets via arbitration isn't guaranteed. the jays can cut him on March 30 (or thereabouts) and pay 1/6 of his contract.
Fella's got to think about that before he accepts arbitration.

Good point.. Are the Jays allowed to tell him "we'll give you a guaranteed contract for $3m for 2 years if you turn down arbitration, and you can see if you can do better on the open market"? Or is that against the CBA terms?

Magpie, where did you get those late and close stats for Wells?  I would like to see them for his career. I know when I have seen them in the past they have been horrible and I want to verify it.  I would think the first half of this year was an aberration.

Here are Vernon Wells' career splits, including "late and close" and "high leverage".   His numbers late and close are poor, but for high leverage situations, they are right on par with the rest of his career. 

Good point.. Are the Jays allowed to tell him "we'll give you a guaranteed contract for $3m for 2 years if you turn down arbitration, and you can see if you can do better on the open market"? Or is that against the CBA terms?

I don't know what is officially allowed, but I'd be very very shocked if there weren't a lot of "you didn't hear me say this but..." sort of "understandings" out there every winter.

Thanks, Mike. I knew the "close and late" were poor. Watching him year after year, you knew they would be. It always seems close and late when he hits that big popup with RISP or goes fishing for that high fastball. I have never seen the "leverage" stats before. I love reference.com. I should have known that is where I saw those close and  late stats before.