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We'll put it back together, raise up a giant ladder, with love and trust and friends and hammers, this summer. We're gonna lean this ladder up against the water tower, climb to the top and drink and talk, this summer.


This is usually when I start to feel like a sucker for staying invested in the Blue Jays' season. Like I ought to know by now what 5.5 games back really means. Like I have a moral obligation not to pay $9 for stadium beer anymore because it might register as a vote for terminal mediocrity. The story is always the same: the Blue Jays are in an awkward spot, unable to sell because they're kinda close and they know they'd win at least one AL division going away, unable to buy because they're too inferior to the beasts of the East. So they hold steady, offering the faint hope of a 15-game win streak, refusing to wave the white flag while doing little to build for the future. It's no fun. And as much as I like baseball for its own sake and am loath to stifle that for any reason, it's hard to shake the impression that my continued interest in the Blue Jays might be interpreted by a corporate owner as satisfaction.

But this year, I'm not conflicted, because the team is offering more than faint hope and baseball for its own sake. (And the 2010 Blue Jays are a very watchable team.) More importantly, Alex Anthopoulos' actions in the trade and scouting markets have backed up his words from this past winter. So far, it looks like the organization is on the right track. I'm unapologetically looking forward to the next two months. Who's with me?

As for yesterday's game...

(Tigers 5, Jays 2.)

Romero battled the dreaded Tigers without his best stuff, received a few defensive assists, and made it through 7 innings tied at 2. Still, it's worrying to see Romero show up without his best stuff in the first place. He fell off precipitously in the second half of 2009 - just stopped missing bats altogether. We know he has the talent, the heart and the brain; it'd be nice to see the endurance assert itself over the next two months.

For the record, as Magpie pointed out in yesterday's thread, Cito Gaston was going to pull Romero after one batter either way.

It was a good game, despite the outcome. I don't have much to say about it. (Where did Justin Verlander's changeup come from, anyway?)

Instead, I will harp on how depressing the Royals are.

The Importance of Batting Average

Selected American League Ranks of the 2010 Kansas City Royals Ofense:

2nd in hits
1st in average
1st in fewest strikeouts
7th in OBP
10th in slugging

and the kicker:

12th in Offensive WPA

Third last in the AL, at a majestic -5.60 WPA heading into last night's game. In other words, in a WPA sense, their offense's contribution to winning games has actually been worse than you'd expect from their production. Strange - I thought teams of tough outs and contact hitters were supposed to be fantastic at the fundamentals, at clutch hitting, at GTMI. In other words, overachievers. Say it ain't so. In other news, anyone here wish we could watch more of the spring 2008 Jays? Didn't think so. I'll take the homers, thanks.

For the hell of it, here's a small table with each AL team's rank in offensive WPA, BA, OBP and SLG:



Speaking of WPA, only nine teams in the majors have positive WPA from their hitters, and the Jays are not among them. Toronto ranks 11th with -0.11 WPA.

A fabulous prize* to anyone who can name the top 5 Blue Jay hitters in WPA without looking. (*The prize is not fabulous.)

Tonight, it's round 2 in Detroit. Mid-major reliever Shaun Marcum, a righty who profiles as a #4 starter, goes for the Jays. He'll be in tough against the projectability, ace potential and velo of premium talent Rick Porcello. We're screwed. Tigers -115. First pitch, 7:05.
23 July 2010: We're Gonna Build Something This Summer | 22 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
mathesond - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 07:51 AM EDT (#219000) #
So they hold steady...

I see what you did there...and their show last Friday was probably the best I've seen by them.

Back on topic, I have to agree, this year's edition of the team is fun, even though I expect them to finish kilometres away from a playoff spot. AA's trades and investment in the minor leagues has breathed new life into my fandom, not that I ever seriously considered giving up on the franchise. Heck, if I could make it through 1979, I can make it through just about anything. I don't even need a double whiskey coke no ice
Chuck - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 08:29 AM EDT (#219001) #
Instead, I will harp on how depressing the Royals are.

And their long-suffering fans continue to suffer at the mercy of Dayton Moore, the architect of their vague and dubious process, invoking his best Campbell Scott from the Spanish Prisoner.
Lugnut Fan - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#219002) #
I was at the Blue Jay game in Detroit yesterday and had a chance to sit behind the screen just off the Tiger dugout .  I can say neither Romero or Verlander had their best stuff, but there were also numerous base running mistakes on both sides.  Plus, why is Cito pitching to Miguel Cabrera in the 8th with the game tied?  I understand there were runners on first and second with no one out and you hate to put the go ahead run on third in that situation, but he is lucky it wasn't much, much worse.  That being said, Toronto should have won that game yesterday just due to the fact that Detroit made a TON of base running miscues and mistakes.
Lugnut Fan - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#219003) #
For the record, I think that Romero did have the better outing yesterday between the two pitchers.
jerjapan - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#219004) #
A fabulous prize* to anyone who can name the top 5 Blue Jay hitters in WPA without looking.

I guessed Bautista, Wells, Buck, Gonzalez and Lewis.  Not bad guesses, but I'm pretty unfamiliar with more modern metrics - anyone care to explain to me why Gonzalez is ranked so low?

Also, I thought Wise was a perfect placeholder, ALA Green, but he's certainly making a case for himself to stick around as a fourth / fifth outfielder and pinch runner. 
Mike Green - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#219005) #
You do have a moral obligation not to drink $9 stadium beer.  I paid $6 for that dort in Cleveland, and that was one fine beverage.

The boys and girls in the business suits will not get the message that mediocrity in stadium services will not be tolerated unless the fans speak loudly and clearly by pre-drinking. Actually, there's an idea for a poll, "what brewing company ought to be allowed to open a booth at the Rogers Centre?" 
John Northey - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#219006) #
Seeing 'batting average' got me to thinking of the old time stats and who are the active leaders. Via B-R

Batting Average...
Albert Pujols (30) .3319
Ichiro Suzuki (36) .3316
Todd Helton (36) .3250
Joe Mauer (27) .3236
Vladimir Guerrero (35) .3210
Matt Holliday (30) .3173

Hits...
Derek Jeter (36) 2855
Ken Griffey (40) 2781 (retired now)
Ivan Rodriguez (38) 2776
Omar Vizquel (43) 2749
Alex Rodriguez (34) 2624
Manny Ramirez (38) 2553

Home Runs...
Ken Griffey (40) 630
Alex Rodriguez (34) 599
Jim Thome (39) 575
Manny Ramirez (38) 554
Chipper Jones (38) 433
Vladimir Guerrero (35) 427

No surprises on BA or hits, but the home runs - didn't notice A-Rod was just 1 shy of 600 or that Thome was so close as well. Heck, ManRam could make it next year with luck too. Boy did the steroid era change things for HR - I remember it being just 3 guys for so long over 600 (Aaron, Ruth, Mays) but now we have 6 members (Bonds, Griffey, Sosa) plus 3 more coming (A-Rod, Thome, Ramirez) and of those 6 four have had serioud steroid/HGH/whatever allegations made/proven (Bonds/Sosa/A-Rod/Ramirez). Thome has never seemed like a star to me, unlike all other members/likely members of the 600 club. It also looks like it will stay at 9 for awhile as Chipper is retiring soon, Vladimir I doubt has 173 more in him, Pujols is 'only' at 388 so has some time, and Dunn (30 years old at 339) is the only other one 30 or less with over 200 home runs. Prince Fielder is doing good though at 184 at age 26.
Anders - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#219007) #

I don't even need a double whiskey coke no ice

We should call you Bizzaro Mylegacy then I suppose.

As for top 5 hitters per WPA I will go out and say Bautista, Lewis, Buck, Overbay and... Molina, why not,. Upon further inspection, interesting.

mathesond - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#219010) #
Heh, I was just quoting from the same song that inspired the title of the post. When it comes to liquor, I'm in the same cask as Mylegacy
Jdog - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#219011) #
I wouldn't put Thome or Ramirez in the 600 club quite yet. Thome is a part time player and may be done at seasons end and he sure isn't going to hit 25 more this season.
John Northey - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#219015) #
Thome is hitting well though - 258/390/540 for a 148 OPS+, or better than Lind last year. Unless he has issues that I haven't heard of he should be back for another season. He has hit 11 HR so far, so 25 in 1 1/2 seasons should be do-able.

Manny is more interesting. Injuries have drastically cut his playing time but his OPS+ for the past 3 years is 165-155-152 (2008-2009-2010). In the past 10 years he was below 150 just once (a 126 in his last full Boston season). If his ego lets him play for $5-10 mil plus incentives he'll stick around but if he says '$20 or nothing' then he will be done very soon.
jerjapan - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#219020) #

Interesting article up in the free section at BP yesterday on players with unexpected power surges this year - three Jays on the top 10 list if you count Gonzalez, plus two ex-Jays. 

They don't think Bautista's totals are sustainable but don't predict a huge drop either, noting a significant spike in FB%.  They worry about Wells lack of walks (and go so far as to suggest we expose him as waiver bait in August) although they note that his BABIP should climb and that he's tied for the lead in the majors in no-doubt HRs with Bautista.  And they praise AA for 'selling while the selling is good' on Gonzalez. 



TheBunk - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#219021) #
"Me and my friends are like doublewiskycokenoice"

Always interpreted that line to be a reference to Minnesota punk band Dillinger Four who have a song called doublewiskeycokenoice about partying with friends. Doesn't hurt that The Hold Steady are D4 fans.
Alex Obal - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#219027) #
their show last Friday was probably the best I've seen by them

First time for me. They were awesome. So much energy. Craig Finn is a great frontman. I had no idea he was the kind of guy who smiles through 90% of the set, or that I'd be doing the same.

anyone care to explain to me why Gonzalez is ranked so low?

Probably bad timing. WPA is just your net effect as a hitter on your team's chances of winning the game. A solo homer with 2 out in the bottom of the 9th is worth about 0.45 or so WPA. A solo homer up 15-1 in the 9th is worth nothing. If you hit a three-run go-ahead homer and a game-tying single with two out in the ninth, you end up with something like .587 WPA for the day. It's a fun stat without much predictive value (obviously).
Gerry - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#219029) #
Fox sports is reporting that Lyle Overbey has a no-trade clause.  I don't believe this has been reported before.
Mike Green - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#219033) #
The no-trade clause apparently was reported  last year, Gerry.  It is also apparently a partial no-trade (with specified teams permitted). 
Petey Baseball - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#219034) #
Was about to write a post on how the Blue Jays cannot overlook the struggling Scott Kazmir in their quest to find high ceiling, controllable, young talent looking for a fresh start (a la Mr. Escobar). Then, with a look at Rotoworld it seems Kazmir is under contract for 12 MILLION!!! dollars next season.  Um, yeah..... good luck with that Tony Reagins.
John Northey - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#219035) #
Funny that Cot's doesn't list a no-trade clause for Overbay as they tend to be very accurate and detailed.

If that is the case then JP was really being generous with those no-trade clauses. Wells has one, Rios had a partial one, and now Overbay is reported to have one. You'd think after the Delgado mess he'd have avoided those like the plague.
mathesond - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#219036) #
I had no idea he was the kind of guy who smiles through 90% of the set, or that I'd be doing the same.

The first time I saw them was in 2005, on (I think) a Tuesday night at Lee's Palace. I knew exactly one of their songs, the place was maybe 1/3 full, and Craig Finn was pretty much the same then as he was last week. Which is why I've tried to see them every time since.
scottt - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#219039) #
Just start platooning Overbay  and I don't see him  refusing a trade.
Dewey - Friday, July 23 2010 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#219042) #
Older Bauxites may have noticed earlier this week the death-notices of two once-celebrated MLBers, Clint Hartung and Ralph Houk (The Major).

Hartung was one of the first television “bonus babies” (1951) to receive nation-wide hype.  He was supposed to be a sort of Stephen Strasberg of his time.  We kept waiting for him to arrive, and waiting;  but it never really happened.  He did pitch for a few years, but never with much distinction.  Bill James later created The Clint Hartung Award, to be ‘awarded’ to the most over-hyped rookie of each decade.  (Jays fans might think of a Sil Campusano Award for an idea of the specialness of it all.  Or maybe the Eddie Zosky Award.)   The NYT obituary had this to say about Hartung’s legacy:  “His most famous moment on the field was as a pinch-runner. Just before Bobby Thomson’s home run, the so-called ‘shot heard round the world’ in the third 1951 National League playoff game against the Brooklyn Dodgers, which the Giants won to advance to the World Series, Hartung replaced Don Mueller at third base after Mueller hurt an ankle in a slide.”

Ralph Houk had the daunting task of succeeding Casey Stengel,  in 1961,  the year of Maris’s 61 homers to break Ruth’s long-standing record.  And he did a good job:  the Yanks won the Series that year, and the next; but couldn’t make it three in a row in 1963.  For some reason, I used to get Hank Bauer and Ralph Houk mixed up.  Both strong silent types that you messed with at your peril.  Both Yankees.
Magpie - Saturday, July 24 2010 @ 12:51 AM EDT (#219043) #
For some reason, I used to get Hank Bauer and Ralph Houk mixed up.

Easy enough to do. Both long-time Yankees who managed AL teams to World Series wins in the 1960s. Bauer was a far better player, Houk had much more success as a manager....

They were a couple of real veterans. Ralph Houk, the Major, earned a Silver Star, a Bronze Star and two Purple Hearts. Bauer was a Marine who was awarded two Bronze Stars and two Purple Hearts. Can't imagine a pennant race felt like a lot of pressure after that.

Was it Bauer who was described as having a "face like a closed fist?"
23 July 2010: We're Gonna Build Something This Summer | 22 comments | Create New Account
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