We all know that prospect development in baseball is an uncertain and rocky process.  First round picks flame out and never make it to the major leagues.  Twentieth round picks or similar undrafted longshots do make it from time to time.  There is a saying in baseball development that in any year one third of your prospects will improve, one third will fall back and one third will stagnate. 

Last year was not a good one for the Blue Jays under this measure.  Approx one half of Jays prospects fell back last season while only about one sixth jumped ahead.  That might be why the Jays now have a new farm director and a new scouting director, not to mention a new GM.

So how are the Jays prospects doing in 2010?  Let's start with the Jays top 30 prospects for 2009, as selected by Batters Box.  We will also include the players obtained in the Halladay trade. 

1. Zach Stewart - unchanged

Stewart flew through the Reds minor league system last season, he had pitched only 37 innings at AA and 12 at AAA before the Jays acquired him.  His stats this season are not as impressive as his 2009 season but I would consider this a consolidation season for him.  Stewart started the year slowly and had ERA's over 5 in both April and May, but since then he has been much improved with an ERA of 2.84 in June and 2.37 in July.  You could argue that as a #1 ranked prospect this is a fall back season for Stewart.  Or you could argue that based on his June and July results he is making progress.  I think the unchanged ranking is fair.

2. Moises Sierra - Down

Sierra essentially will miss the 2010 season.  Even though he is still young it is never good to miss a year of development.

3. Henderson Alvarez - Up

I have to admit I am an Alvarez fan but a 20 year old pitcher with a mid 3 ERA in high A is a good prospect.  We could see in his futures game appearance that Alvarez has a good arm and can get it up to the plate in the mid nineties.  Alvarez's challenge now is to become more of a pitcher and less of a thrower.  Alvarez like to throw his pitches for strikes and the hitters can, and do, tee it up off him.  Once Alvarez tidies up his breaking ball and commands his fastball better he should be on his way to the majors. 

4. Chad Jenkins - Down

Jenkins is a number one pick but he hasn't yet shown consistent number one pick form.  Jenkins is a sinker/slider pitcher and we have seen many of them dominate at the lower levels before hitting the wall at AA.  Batters are hitting .280 off Jenkins this season and he has allowed more than a hit per inning.  Jenkins hasn't walked many but his strikeout rate is just 7/9IP.  I was hoping to see more dominance from Jenkins, as it is most of his starts are the same, 5 or 6 innings, six or seven hits, 1 or 2 walks and 4 or 5 strikeouts.

5. JP Arencibia - Up

There is not much for me to add here, improved power, improved batting average, improved eye at the plate.  Bring on the majors.

6. David Cooper - Down

Will the real David Cooper please stand up?  Cooper hit .192 in May and .211 in June before hitting .368 in July as I am writing this. Cooper may have been unlucky earlier in the season, his BABIP was .247 in May and June.  Cooper has also shown good power this season.  In his down May and June, over half of his hits went for extra bases, and almost half of his July hits are for extras.  But in the end we have to go on his last year and a half rather than one hot month.  As a first baseman Cooper needs to demonstrate above average hitting ability.  He has done so over the last month but he will need more than that to make it to the majors.

7. Tyler Pastornicky - Up

Tyler is now a Brave but he did play well as a 20 year old in Dunedin.

8. Carlos Perez - Up

We don't have a lot of statistics for Perez as the Jays kept him in extended spring but he has played very well for Auburn in the first month.  Strong hitting skills, good speed and excellent defence are a recipe for success.

9. Danny Farquhar - Unchanged

Last season Farquhar looked like the future closer of the Jays, he struck out 51 hitters in 46 innings in AA.  On the troublesome side Farquhar had 30 walks in those 46 innings.  As of this writing Farquhar has matched his innings total in AA from last season and his strikeouts are down slightly from 51 to 48.  Walks are up slightly from 30 to 32.  Hits are also up from 31 to 34 but home runs are up from 1 to 6.  So it looks like a stand pat season for Farquhar.  However Farquhar's numbers have improved since the Jays moved him to a long relief role.  Over his last 10 games his ERA is 1.42 and his walk numbers are "down" to 10 in 19 innings, with 4 of them coming in one appearance.  It looks like Farquhar has turned a corner but as with others on this list, he needs more than a few weeks to prove the point.

10. Tim Collins - Up

Tim has gone but his 2010 performance was up for sure.

New - Kyle Drabek - Up

Don't forget Drabek is only 22 years old pitching well in AA.  Drabek is an interesting pitcher, he appears to cruise for innings at a time before having a bad inning where he gives up 2 or 3 runs.  You hear stories about lost concentration, losing his delivery, or getting mad at himself and losing composure.  That suggests to me a pitcher who can pitch at higher levels and in some ways would welcome the challenge.  Drabek has been a very consistent starter for New Hampshire, as evidenced by his low 3's ERA, and looks ready for the next level.

New - Brett Wallace - Unchanged

Wallace's stats are very similar over the last two years.  He has hit between .280 and .300 in his four stops and his OPS is consistently around .840.  His 2010 numbers are very similar to his 2009 numbers so we have to say unchanged for Wallace.

New - Travis d'Arnaud - Unchanged

D'Arnaud started like a AA player in Dunedin in April but he went on the DL with a bad back and he hasn't been the same, statistically, since he came back.  D'Arnaud has been average across the board as a 21 year old in high A.  A 270 BA is OK; 20% strikeout rate is OK; 18 walks are a few less than you would like to see; and 22 of his 61 hits have been for extra bases, that too is OK.  So a solid average year for D'Arnaud after a hot start.

Sub-Total

Those were the Jays top 13 prospects heading into 2010.  How did they do?   I have 6 Ups; 4 Unchanged; and 3 Downs.  That is better than the expected one third, one third, one third and that means that this season, so far, has been successful for the Jays top 13 prospects.  Unfortunately two of the "Ups" were traded but the success of the Jays development allowed AA to trade those players for value in return.   One of the "Downs" was due to injury and the other two were the Jays first round picks in 2008 and 2009.  That is not a good sign, you have to able to be successful with your number one picks.

Let's move on the the rest of the top 30 and see if the pattern holds.

11. Brad Mills - Unchanged

Mills has returned to AAA and is putting up very similar numbers to 2009.  It's time to bring him back up to Toronto to see what he can do at the major league level in his second go-around.

12. Johermyn Chavez - No rating

Johermyn was traded and the Jays have had no role in his 2010 development so I will not rate him.

13. Andrew Liebel - Down

Liebel has been injured for much of 2010 but when he played his performance was worse than 2009.

14. Justin Jackson - Down

Jackson has been hit by injuries in 2010, again, but since he has returned he looks like the old Justin Jackson.  That is, he can hit a bit, field well, run some, but he doesn't hit well enough to be considered a premium prospect any more.

15. Brian Dopirak - Down

Dopirak has had an average year in Las Vegas.  But as a weak fielding first baseman he needs to be better than that.  Dopirak doesn't walk much, doesn't K too much but also hasn't shown the power you expect from a first base/DH player.  Dopirak is 26 years old, so time is flying by, but he needs to step it up to be considered a major league player.

16. Gustavo Pierre - Unchanged

As a 17 year old playing in the NYPL Pierre is doing well.  But he has not "broken out" with a demonstration of his skill set so I think unchanged is the way to go here.

17. Bobby Bell - Down

Bell is another player who has been hit by injuries this season.  The conversion of Bell to a starter now has a doubtful outcome but Bell could potentially still succeed as a reliever.

18. Darin Mastroianni - Up

Mastroianni is hitting over .300 in AA and his power is up this season over last.  Mastroianni has definitely exceeded expectations and it looks like he is headed for Las Vegas next season.

19. Sean Ochinko - Unchanged

Ochinko is another player with an OK 2010.  He is hitting close to .300 but he doesn't walk a lot and the home runs have been lacking, just six so far.  For a player expected to be a first base type in the majors Ochinko needs to show more power.  He is 22 so if the power is coming it should come soon.

20. Eric Thames - Up

Thames has finally had an injury free season and he is showing his potential in AA.  Thames has almost doubled his professional at-bats this year and his power has been excellent.  He has 18 home runs and 17 doubles in 350 at-bats.  He might be helped a little by the New Hampshire wall in right field but in any event it has been a break-out season for Thames.

Sub-Total: In the 11-20 category we have 2 Ups; 3 Unchanged; 4 Downs and one not rated.

21. Luis Perez - Unchanged

Perez returned to AA for 2010 and put up numbers that were worse than 2009 but he was promoted to AAA anyway.  Perez got off to a rocky start in AAA but his last two starts have been better.  Perez profiles as a reliever in the majors and as a lefty he has a chance to succeed in a LOOGY role.  In a small sample in AAA lefties have not hit him well so based on that, and his recent improvement I am going to stretch and say unchanged for his rating.

22. AJ Jimenez - Up

Jimenez is another young Jays catcher who can hit, run, and throw.  Sal Fasano loves him and for that reason alone he deserves an Up.

23. Bobby Ray - Down

Ray has been injured a lot since he turned pro and this year is no exception.  Ray hasn't had enough innings to show what he can do this season so because of that this is a down year for him.

24. Brad Emaus - Up

Emaus finally made it to AAA and is hitting .300 there.  Emaus has an OPS over 950, doesn't strike out much and just hits.   

25. Ryan Schimpf - Down

Schimpf has been disappointing in 2010.  With a batting average around 220 Schimpf isn't getting on base enough.  Schimpf has good power but his K rate is around 30%.

26. John Tolisano - Down

Tolisano has been a streaky hitter this season, at one time he had pushed his batting average up close to 300 but since then it is back down to 250.  As another player without a real position Tolisano needs to show a good bat to help him find a defensive position.  Tolisano is still only 21 and playing in the FSL, which is good, but his strikeout rate is up to 30% this season and that needs to get better.

27. Rey Gonzalez - Down

Gonzalez has taken several steps back from 2009.  Not only did he flame out in AAA but he has been struggling in AA too.

28. Trystan Magnuson - Up

Magnuson has had an excellent 2010 including a futures game appearance and an all-star selection. 

29. Jake Marisnick - Up

Marisnick doesn't have a lot of at-bats for us to see as he stayed in extended until the GCL started.  But he has hit well in the GCL and he is doing a lot of good things, not striking out much, walking a bit, having more than half of his hits go for extra bases.  Its been a good start for Marisnick.

30. Chuck Huggins - Unchanged

Huggins has pitched well again for Dunedin but struggled in a brief audition in AA.  Huggins numbers are similar to 2009 other than his strikeouts which are down a bit.  

Totals for 21-30: Up - 4; Unchanged - 2; Down - 4.

Overall Totals: Up - 12; Unchanged - 9; Down - 11.  Based on these numbers this looks like a typical minor league development pattern but it certainly feels better than that.

Not counted: The following players look like good prospects now but did not make the top 30 in 2009: Adam Loewen; Rommie Lewis; Alan Farina (when he is not injured); Ryan Goins; Mike McDade; Joel Carreno; and Kenny Wilson.   Adeiny Hechavarria, Shawn Bowman and this years draft picks are new to the organization and will be fighting for top 30 places at the end of the season.

I think one reason why the season seems to be better than it is is because so many of the players having an "Up" year are in the higher levels of the organization and are closer to the major leagues so we can visualize them in a Blue Jay uniform and as a result get more excited about them.  This includes JP Arencibia; Brad Emaus; Kyle Drabek; Eric Thames; Trystan Magnuson; Tim Collins (while he was here); and Darin Mastroianni.  

When you look at the Dunedin and Lansing rosters and ask yourself, "how many of these players will be major leaguers?", you come back with a short list.  Henderson Alvarez looks good, as do the catchers d'Arnaud and Jimenez but other than those three everyone else is a longer shot.  As AA trades players coming up to July 31 he might look to get back some A level players to fill that development gap in the organization.

The Jays have more interesting players in short season ball than they do in Dunedin and Lansing.  Players like Jake Marisnick, Carlos Perez, Gustavo Pierre, Chris Hakwins, Asher Wojciechowski, Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez have more potential than the higher ranked rosters in A ball.

So in summary 2010 looks to be a rebound season for the Jays minor league system, a welcome sight after a very weak 2009.