http://www.talkingchop.com/2010/7/14/1569797/braves-blue-jays-trade-reactions#comments

I found this thread very interesting. It moves past the initial reactions and the Braves' fans have a good debate mostly about AG vs. Escobar and who will be better for the rest of the season. I liked that some commented that they were disappointed that they didn't let Escobar regain trade value before dealing him.

I think the Jays should keep Scott Downs for 2011, or at least consider keeping him.  He's been one of the most reliable pitchers in the bullpen.  Yes, it could cost $3-million or more, but the Jays can afford it.  When you consider that Frasor and Gregg will likely be gone in 2011, and Tallet has been mediocre, the Jays need to keep a couple of good veterans (Camp and Downs) to help stabilize the younger inexperienced relievers -- who could include a number of unproven arms such as Purcey, Roenicke, Magnusson, Lewis etc.   If the Jays trade Downs and Gregg and Frasor, they'll probably need to recruit a free-agent reliever in the off-season anyway, probably for $2-million to $3-million.  (The minor-league relievers in the Jays system are just not good enough or numerous enough to stock the entire Jays bullpen in 2011 if the Jays get rid of three veteran relievers.)  The trading of Downs would not ultimately save any money if they have to replace him with a free agent, so why do it?

Two things, in my mind, would make Downs expendable:  if the Jays get an offer that they just can't refuse; or if they decide to stock the bullpen with a batch of converted starters such as Zep, Richmond, Mills etc.   But both of those possibilities are doubtful.  It would be a mistake to go with a raw bullpen of entirely unproven arms in 2011.  Keep a couple of the best veterans, I say.

I like the rumour that we were asking for Iglesias in exchange for Downs.  I have so much confidence in our scouts and our ability to spend on draft picks that we shouldn't be letting a Type A free agent go for anything less.

I agree that Downs is the guy that we should hold out for assets on.  A worst case scenario is another year of excellent pitching, and another crack at this next deadline.  Frasor and Gregg on the other hand should be gone to the first team that offers a B prospect or takes EE off of our hands.

I can't imagine Buck not moving, he's always had the ability to hit for power and there's plenty of teams that could use that out of their catcher (DET?). Is Daniel Fields too much to ask for?  

Not interested in dealing Bautista, I want him locked up and starting at 3rd next season.

If anyone is offering anything for Lyle Overbay I'm willing to take that too.  Having Wallace and Lind split time between DH and 1B to close out the season seems like a plan to me. Plus the salary relief might sign another Dickie Thon next year.

Don't know if there's anyone else on the roster I see a major offer being made on.  Fred Lewis might get some calls, but I like our top 2 right now alot. If we get a high OBP, top of the order type back in a deal I'm open to moving him.

I'm from the everyone is available for the right price school & have such confidence in AA & his team that

I'm expecting some exciting things to happen - however, those type B FA have a valuable !st. supp pick

attached to them. I would love for us to get 1 of the Braves bevy of outstanding young pitching - one thing

that's lacking in the Jays system is a True #1 type starter.

Also, deals with Texas & the dodgers, where the Jays pick up salary & get back better prospects.

A couple of prospect for prospect trades I'm interested in :

JP arencibia & brad mills for Mike Moustakas ( KC doesn't have a near ready catching prospect & can

move gordon back to 3rd. - the Jays would extend Buck for 2 yrs. & wait on Arnaud/Jerolman etc.)

Doug Drabeck or Zach Stewart for Brett Lawrie  - Lawrie isn't working out at 2nd and Mil. has 3rd & LF covered

and they need pitching) These are likely not July 31st type deals  

We don't have a guy in the system with mind-blowing stats.  But look at Romero, Halladay, Escobar, Carpenter, even Billy Koch.  Over the years none of the guys the Jays have developed with number 1 stuff have dominated the minors. 

If I mixed in Kyle Drabek's line with Roy Halladay's or Carpenter's no one would be able to tell which was which.  If I showed you Pat Hentgen's and Drabek's you wouldn't be able to tell which was which (other then the fact Hentgen got really bombed in Syracuse instead of being mediocre).  In 1991 Hentgen was bombed in Syracuse, 2 years later winning 19 for the World Champions.

So I would not want Drabek included in any deal unless he's considered an A+ prospect (Drabek for Moustakas).  I've heard the "not a true #1" starter from other sources.  But you always heard the same thing about everyone else in the Jay's system that became a number one starter. 

I would like to see Downs come back too but I think it would be difficult to keep him.  I wonder if the Jays talked with him about an extension?

Downs is 34 years old and this off-season is his best chance for a long term deal to set him up for retirement.  I assume he would be looking for a 3 year deal worth around $12 million.  That might be too rich for the Jays.

Relievers, in general, are an unpredictable lot.  Downs has been very consistent but can we expect that to continue?  Downs has also been very durable, can we expect that to continue?

Assuming Downs needs a 3 yr/$12m deal to stay with the Jays I am OK with him leaving.

What exactly is Frasor going to get on the free agent market that trumps a 2.5 M guarantee?

Well for one thing, it's not guaranteed.  The Jays can walk away for it prior to mid-March for a few weeks severance.  And yes, I think he could get a 2-3 three year contract for $5m that is guaranteed.

Assuming Downs needs a 3 yr/$12m deal to stay with the Jays I am OK with him leaving.

Scott Downs has been one of the top relievers in baseball over the last 4 years

I would be sort of surprised if someone didn’t throw 20 mill at him.

Consistent relievers are hard to find. And I think he has been the Jays best reliever over the last 3 seasons. In what is usually considered one of the better bullpens.

That being said, sometimes we see bad relievers get big contracts and okay relievers get one year deals. Relievers with Downs track record should be worth throwing a decent contract at.

The pitching as a whole in baseball has gotten much better. So in this marketplace who knows?

Pitching might no longer be at a premium  and home run hitters might be the big catch.

Why's Lyon an outlier?  Show me the norm?  Is Rodney an outlier too?  Both are making more than double what Frasor is making despite being inferior pitchers (xFIP, WAR).

If Frasor can't get more than $2m guaranteed on the market, his lawyer should be shot.  If he can't I'd gladly offer him $3-3.5m over two years to come back.  In fact, if there was any doubt, I'd give him the offer in November and let him decline Arb and work the FA market with our offer in his back pocket.

I'd love to move all our over-30 relievers for some decent return, and let Purcey/Janssen/Carlson/Roenicke/Mills/Litsch/Lewis/Accardo/Magnusson fight it out for the bullpen spots the rest of the year. Plenty of talent there - enough to give them a shot. If they're nowhere close to good enough, then buy a reliever or two in the offseason.

Heck, the Yanks pretty much need an entirely new bullpen after Rivera, don't they? 

Offer them up Downs/Gregg/Camp/Frasor/Tallet all in one package, and see how good a prospect we can get from them. Inquire about names like Joba and Montero, and maybe hint that a name like Wallace could be up for grabs.

Talk radio in North Texas has the Rangers, if budget allows, chasing a 1B. But Overbay is NOT a good match, as TEX would want someone who can mash -- and Davis, for all his trouble at the plate, is already a better defensive 1B than Lyle.

P.S. isn't "Pi Approximation Day" actually March 14? 3.14 and all that? Looking forward to mid-morning that day in five years, when it will be 3.14.15.9!

One imagines the wheels in Mick's mind turning.

March 14.
July 22.
Pie Traynor.
Felix Pie.

Talk radio in North Texas has the Rangers, if budget allows, chasing a 1B. But Overbay is NOT a good match, as TEX would want someone who can mash -- and Davis, for all his trouble at the plate, is already a better defensive 1B than Lyle.

Don't think that this is the case - Lyle has had a UZR/150 of 2-3 the last couple of years and washes out around 0 for his career, while Davis' UZR/150 is about -4 for his career (roughly 150 games at first). Overbay also fared slightly better in the fan scouting report last year than Davis (3.61 to 3.51) though I am not sure how much I would make of that. There are sample size issues, but I see no obvious reason to think Lyle is the inferior defender.  

Overbay isn't worth a ton but he has been a solidly average 2.5 WAR first baseman for the last several years, and has been hitting 304/372/495 over the last two months (57 games.)

I think its a little too soon to address specific needs.

I agree that 1B is the obvious place to upgrade (I have little faith in Wallace), but I don't see a good matchup amongst the teams looking to deal with us.  We already Jacked the Braves, I doubt Freddy Freeman is getting moved. NYM aren't all of a sudden going to deal Ike Davis to us, FLA will hold Morrison, and the A's ain't dealing Carter. Pretty sure Laporta, Chris Davis, Kyle Blanks and Kila Ka'aihue are staying put too. I'm just not sure who that leaves, Yonder Alonso (he makes Wallace look like Babe Ruth).  Do Detroit, BOS etc... have elite 1B prospects who are close to the bigs?  Lars Anderson is the only one to come to mind and I'm not bullish on him.

We could go all in on a Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Adam Dunn type and try to sign them to a long-term contracts but its probably a little too early for that. Now is the time to build assets for a move like that in 2 years. 

Am I dreaming in technicolor?

If you are, you're not the only one.

I couldn't agree more with that post.

I agree that 1B is the obvious place to upgrade (I have little faith in Wallace), but I don't see a good matchup amongst the teams looking to deal with us.  We already Jacked the Braves, I doubt Freddy Freeman is getting moved. NYM aren't all of a sudden going to deal Ike Davis to us, FLA will hold Morrison, and the A's ain't dealing Carter. Pretty sure Laporta, Chris Davis, Kyle Blanks and Kila Ka'aihue are staying put too. I'm just not sure who that leaves, Yonder Alonso (he makes Wallace look like Babe Ruth).  Do Detroit, BOS etc... have elite 1B prospects who are close to the bigs?  Lars Anderson is the only one to come to mind and I'm not bullish on him.

Jesus Montero

or, conversely, turn Snider into a 1B, and look for a young OF.

Here’s my wild trade layout (consistent theme is trading for underperforming players with high ceilings…often on playoff teams that can’t currently afford to play underperforming players)

Overbay (along with cash to pay his salary for the rest of the year) plus Gregg get traded to the Angels for Brandon Wood.  It gives the Angels a 1B for the rest of the year and a set-up man for this year’s playoff run + beyond (unless they don’t exercise his option(s) because they decide to take the supplemental pick instead).    Wood gives us a high ceiling player at 3B.  Je’s a much better defender than Encarnacion, as I’ve read many scouts say that he’s probably good enough defensively to play short at the Major League level. He has also improved his approach at the plate and cut down his swing; he also looks way better balanced at the plate than Encarnacion.  He looks a little bit pull conscious but so was Joe Carter and that worked out fine for the Jays.  He has struggled in the pros but I think the Jays can afford to be more patient than the Angels.  I believe that Wood is out of options but is still controllable through at least 2013 (maybe 2014….he has been sent to the minors for some long stints since first coming up).  The ‘out of options’ part should make him easier to get in a trade.

Downs gets traded to the Rockies for Franklin Morales.  Rockies need a lefty reliever and Morales is having an off year.  Based on stuff alone, Morales could still turn out to be a great starter (we would use him in the bullpen this year and stretch him out next year), although the Rockies don’t seem to be willing to give him a chance to prove it.   I think he should be under control till 2013…but I’m not sure.  

Marcum, Encarnacion (including cash to pay the rest of his salary) and Buck get traded to the Tigers for Porcello and Dan Schlereth.   I know trading Marcum hurts short terms but he’s only controllable for 2 more years while Porcello would be under control till 2015.  Porcello still has very good upside but the Tigers may be willing to trade him for Marcum who is more ready to contribute now and who they would have two years to sign to an extension (a lucrative extension makes more sense for the Tigers than the Jays because they should have a ton of money freeing up after this year, and the year after when Ordonez leaves).   I think that trading Marcum makes sense since the Jays probably won’t be competitive next year and Porcello may be just as good as Marcum by 2012 (even though the Jays may not compete by 2012 either).   

Jose Bautista, Jason Frasor, and a mid level Blue Jay prospect get traded to the Braves for Julio Teheran.  I know losing Bautista hurts (especially since he’s supposed to be Escobar’s mentor) but a potential ace is worth it.  The Braves look desperate to make a good playoff run for Bobby Cox’s last year (how else do you explain the Escobar trade….I don’t know how AA kept a straight face at that press conference, he robbed the Braves) and they may be willing to make this trade knowing that Bautista could supplant Chipper at 3B next season.    Bautista may continue to hit 30 HR a year while playing good D, but he’s probably also going to keep hitting 230 (albeit with a great OBP).   Also, extending Bautista (same as Marcum) would probably mean paying market value and we’re still in the rebuilding stage when you want to avoid doing that.  Once we have a good enough young core of players to compete year in and year out, then you can start extending guys when they get expensive and/or signing free agents.   Until then, it’s better to spend all of Rogers’ money on signing international free agents and expensive high school draft picks.   The Jays probably won’t start spending big (the often mentioned $120) until about 2016, once enough of these international players (signed at 16/17) and high school draft picks (signed at 18/19) start reaching the majors.

I stopped reading at Brandon Wood.  Do people still think he's a prospect?  I imagine the Angels would trade him straight up for Emaus. 

 Andy Marte must be out there somewhere, why not trade for him?

I still expect to see Hill and Lind return to dominance as hitters and Hill is a fine 2B.

I'm not trying to argue that they won't "return to dominance", but I'm not so sure that this is a slam dunk.

Lind was obviously insanely great in 2009, with an OPS+ of 144. But other than that, he has only been as a good as league average once, and an OPS+ of 100 from a LF/DH is not really great.

I have no idea where Lind's "true level" lies and what should realistically be expected of him with a fresh start in 2011. We had every reason to expect a regression from his 2009 season, but certainly not a return to his rookie form. To me, he's more wild card than blue chip.

Aaron Hill's career best OPS+ of 117 was achieved in his age-27 season. His career OPS+ is 99. What is a realistic expectation moving forward?

I think Hill's "established level" will find him somewhere between 99 and 117 with 2009 proving to be his career year. WIth his defense at 2B and modest price tag, there's definite value there.

A major trade is reported to be going down in Philly, guesses are that they may be getting a second Roy in their rotation, Oswalt that would be.  Can't see it getting done without tradeing Brown away.

NOW is the time for AA to call his old friend Amaro and offer Marcum/Romero for Brown - either pitcher is cheap

& not a rental - but it must cost Phila. BROWN - an outfield of Brown/Wells/Snider is just what the doctor ordered.

Lind wasn't a decent minor-leaguer who pulled a Hinske and had a big year; he was an absolute top hitting prospect who lived up to said billing last year. 

That's true, but he's 27 now and has had exactly one good year in the majors. He may well be a late bloomer, like Edgar Martinez and David Ortiz, and there may be many good seasons to follow. That would not be unheard of. I'm just saying that someone with Lind's career profile to date is not a lock to be a star moving forward.

The Phillies need Brown because they're either dealing Werth or letting him walk.  They can't afford to keep that core together without replenishing it with cheap young talent.  Given that, Brown is about as untouchable as Mike Stanton, Stephen Strasberg, Jason Heyward, or Carlos Santana.  It would, legitimately, cost us Marcum AND Romero plus probably Hechevarria/D'Arnaud to buy him right now.