Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Seventy To Go (A Tale Told By an Idiot)

The Jays have 35 home games remaining and 35 road games. Their future looks like this:

Road

at KC (3)
at DET (4)
at NYY (6)
at LAA (3)
at OAK (3)
at BOS (6)
at TBR (3)
at BLT (3)
at MIN (4)

Home

BLT (6)
CLE (3)
TBR (6)
BOS (3)
NYY (6)
DET (4)
TEX (4)
SEA (3)

The vast majority of these games - 52 by my count - are against teams with better records than the Blue Jays. Almost half of the remaining games - 30 to be exact - are against the three Beasts of the East.

The 2010 season has been a fabulous, unexpected success so far. (Even if all I hear are complaints about the manager.) Last October, you might have guessed that Roy Halladay would be in Philadelphia in exchange for three minor leaguers. You may have anticipated that Marco Scutaro would be in Boston or someplace similar. These two things were bad news indeed, especially for a team that went 75-87 with those two guys in the lineup. If you were then informed that Adam Lind and Aaron Hill would spend the entire season struggling with the Mendoza Line - well, come on. You would have expected to see something like the 2003 Tigers. That they'd only lose 105 games if they were lucky.

Anyway, it's going to get a whole lot harder the rest of the way. It would be nice if they could split those 70 games, although that's probably far too much to ask for. The main thing I've been hoping for this season is for the Jays to end up with a better record than the Phillies.

'Twould make me laugh long and hearty, that would.

Curiously, Toronto actually has a winning record against all three AL divisions (thanks to their brutal domination of the Orioles, of course.). It's their traditional futility against NL teams that has held them to just 2 games over .500 overall (curiously, both Tampa and Baltimore also post 7-11 marks against the NL.) So, just for the heck of it, here are the standings if we were to eliminate games against the Other League. The White Sox and the Mets, among others, are thanking their lucky stars for Bud Selig's innovation. The Dodgers and the Rays aren't so happy...

AL East        W-L    GBL
Tampa Bay     48-25   ---
New York      47-26    1
Boston        43-35    7.5
Toronto       40-34    8.5
Baltimore     22-51   26

AL Central
Minnesota     41-33   ---
Detroit       37-35    3  
Chicago       35-38    5.5
Cleveland     33-41    8
Kansas City   31-42    9.5

AL West
Texas         39-35   ---
Oakland       38-36    1
LA Angels     39-38    1.5
Seattle       27-47   12

NL East
Atlanta       45-32   ---
Philadelphia  38-35    5
NY Mets       36-38    7.5
Florida       37-39    7.5
Washington    35-39    8.5

NL Central
Cincinnati    43-35   ---
St Louis      42-35     .5
Chicago       34-41    7.5
Houston       34-43    8.5
Milwaukee     33-45   10
Pittsburgh    30-46   12

NL West
San Diego     45-31   ---
LA Dodgers    45-32     .5
San Francisco 43-34    2.5
Colorado      41-35    4
Arizona       28-49   17.5

Has anyone noticed how little of the baseball conversation these days seems to be about baseball? No one seems all that interested in what's going on out on the diamond. It seems to me that everyone is looking at the game and imagining they're either in the dugout, second-guessing the manager, or in the front office, second-guessing the GM. Trapped by the illusion of knowledge, and in hot pursuit of that eternal will'o'the'wisp - the idea that the game can be understood, and maybe even controlled. The Steinbrenner Fallacy.

I've done it often enough my own self. I don't even know how to justify it it - all I can say is that what Gaston is doing or what Anthopoulos is doing doesn't make sense to me, according to what I know of the game and situation. But always, always bearing in mind that the total tonnage of what Gaston and Anthopoulos know that I don't know would stop a team of oxen in their tracks...

It's a part of the baseball conversation I'd simply rather do without these days. I'm just tired of it. It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. And I've contributed enough hot air for one lifetime, thank you very much. (Although it's extremely unlikely that I've actually finished with the hot-air generation...)

I have this idea that I want to go to a ball game and, first of all, not have to work: not have to record what happens on every pitch, not follow the ball every time it's put in play. I think it would be fun to focus on the fielders who aren't involved in the play... the silly little things that you can't see on televison because they're outside the action of the moment - the third baseman backing up the pitcher after a pickoff attampt at first, the middle infielders, scurrying into cutoff positions, the first baseman trailing the runner to second base...

And some other time for all that stuff that produces so much heat, so little illimination, and pretty well no pleasure.

Posted by Magpie on Monday, July 19 2010 @ 06:46 PM EDT.

Seventy To Go (A Tale Told By an Idiot) | 30 comments | Create New Account

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92-93 - Monday, July 19 2010 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#218729) #

the silly little things that you can't see on televison because they're outside the action of the moment - the third baseman backing up the pitcher after a pickoff attampt at first, the middle infielders, scurrying into cutoff positions, the first baseman trailing the runner to second base...

This IS baseball, and why 99% of baseball "fans" don't appreciate what they're seeing and think the people who do are taking the game to an entirely new level. I would love if the focus around here would be more on the occasional play of the game, but have found this season those comments are generally ignored for the ones dealing with the bigger overall picture.

Part of the reason I loved the Yunel Escobar trade is because based on everything I read I thought he was going to be a fascinating player to watch on an every day basis and especially in person, and the opening series in Baltimore showed why. He plays SS with the sort of flair many baseball fans really enjoy watching, often making plays in a way that seem "uncoventional". I need to get myself some good seats when the Jays return home so I can experience Yunel's habit of apparently whistling in the field and to truly appreciate what he does out on the field. It's hard to fathom after seeing how far he crushed that grand slam that he hadn't hit a HR in over 100 games, and I think it really speaks to just how much of baseball is in the head.

uglyone - Monday, July 19 2010 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#218731) #

If we could just keep whupping the bad teams over the next 13 games like we just did the last 3 vs. the O's, we might just get close enough to the wild card spot to make all those August games head to head vs. the playoff contenders interesting for more reasons than just the "little things".

We're 8.5 games out now, and have a powder puff sked until we take on the Yanks to start August. Maybe just maybe we can chip a few games off that lead in the next 13.....and see if we can not fall on our faces against the playoff contenders this one last time thru August, like we've done all year so far.

Less than 5 games of a playoff spot in August? with our fate in our hands with head to head games against the other playoff teams? With a healthy rotation for the first time all year, Lind and Hill back to form, Escobar and Snider back in the fold, and maybe even an Arencibia or Wallace sighting?

a man can dream, can't he?

Magpie - Monday, July 19 2010 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#218732) #

Part of the reason I loved the Yunel Escobar trade is because based on everything I read I thought he was going to be a fascinating player to watch on an every day basis

Me too. It actually reminds me, on a lower level, of the Alomar trade. Escobar surely isn't going to be anywhere near that special, and he's also about 4 years older than Robbie was when he came to town. But I'm reminded of it anyway. The Padres were genuinely unhappy with Alomar. They weren't nearly as unhappy as the Angels were with Devon White, or as unhappy as the Blue Jays were with Tony Fernandez, but they were unhappy enough.

Dewey - Monday, July 19 2010 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#218734) #

It's a part of the baseball conversation I'd simply rather do without these days. I'm just tired of it.

Magpie, I'd better ask what specifically the "it" refers to here before I say how much I agree with what you've written. So I am.

Nick Holmes - Monday, July 19 2010 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#218735) #

The Jays have been a good team to watch this year, just not so fun to scoreboard watch. The attitude of the players seems to be positive, & they`ve been in most games `til the end. All we have to do is turn off the laptops & get out of our Mama`s basements.
And so I shall. When are the scouts going to notice Escobar bunts...

Magpie - Monday, July 19 2010 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#218736) #

"it"

Baseball conversation where one is focused on the dugout (second-guessing the manager) or the front office (second-guessing the GM). Where we insert ourselves into the baseball roles we can all fool ourselves into believing we can fill - and believe me, anyone who even dreams they know enough to do either job is fooling themselves on a world-historic level, that under other circumstances would call for powerful medication, urgent intervention, and lots of professional help. The raw arrogance, the sheer presumption that's required - yet is widely on display - well, it takes my breath away.

But on the other hand - what else can we do? We already know, and all too well, that we can't fill the only roles that really matter, the ones that involve taking the field.

Mylegacy - Monday, July 19 2010 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#218737) #

I remember thinking that Hill had a real powerfully built chest and upper body - I saw a lot of power lurking there before he started to hit with power last year. With Escobar - after seeing him for the last few days - I think the guy's a freakin monster. See his hands? His forearms, his thickness? If you told me he'd gone over 100 games without a homer I'd have said, "Hush yourself boy, you all just don't know what youse talkin' 'bout!"

Give Cito some time with wee Mr Escobar and give him a change of mindset and I think - wow - we might really have something here. Remember, power is always the last thing to develop.

TamRa - Monday, July 19 2010 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#218738) #

I agree with you Magpie. It was always one of the first things that came to mind for me whenever the "JP is an idiot" conversation got started (or "Gord is an idiot" before that)

However, being hundreds of miles away, and subject to the pan of the camera on those rare occasions when i even get to watch the game, that's the hand i'm dealt.

In a sense, following baseball for me is almost like a recreation one does for mental exercise - like a crossword puzzle - than it is like a sport.

But for those of you who CAN, i think you are very right.

Dewey - Monday, July 19 2010 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#218739) #

O.K., thanks, Magpie. Now I can without hesitation say that I entirely agree with you.

(And will you look at that, I also agree with WillRain's agreeing with you! Mirabile dictu.)

Jim - Monday, July 19 2010 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#218740) #

I would love if the focus around here would be more on the occasional play of the game

I would love if we could go back to actually discussing the major league team. About 3 years ago interest in the major league team disappeared.

Alex Obal - Monday, July 19 2010 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#218741) #

Magpie, I order you to treat yourself to a baseball game sometime.

Jim - Monday, July 19 2010 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#218742) #

anyone who even dreams they know enough to do either job is fooling themselves on a world-historic level,

True... except that there are plenty of people who have the ability to do those jobs, they just weren't good enough players to have the contacts needed to be successful. I work in a boring industry (insurance), but the sum total of the business I am responsible for is twenty times the Blue Jays payroll.

Baseball teams would be well served by a handful of employees who negotiate large deals for a living, because the money that baseball teams work with is a drop in the bucket in the corporate world.

92-93 - Monday, July 19 2010 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#218744) #

The Rays HAVE been well served by a handful of employees with business experience - owner Stu Sternberg was a partner at Goldman Sachs along with president Matt Silverman, and they hired a Bear Stearns analyst with private equity experience in Andrew Friedman to be the GM.

Mike Green - Monday, July 19 2010 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#218746) #

If you want more or less unadorned pleasure in watching a game live, you pretty much have to go to a spring training or minor league game. There are moments in a major league game, but once you take a moment to ask why this or why that or you listen to other fans at the game, it is more or less inevitable that some of the pleasure is lost.

It is in the human condition to be curious, so we study history, count plays, compile data tables, scout; there isn't in this the unadorned pleasure of watching the game with a blank slate, but as long as we can keep the spirit mostly pure, it isn't so bad.

Jim - Monday, July 19 2010 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#218749) #

The Rays HAVE been well served by a handful of employees with business experience

Good point. They added a baseball person (Hunsicker) to business people and have won a lot of baseball games.

Magpie - Monday, July 19 2010 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#218752) #

I order you to treat yourself to a baseball game sometime.

Good idea. I go to lots of games, but....

Kelekin - Tuesday, July 20 2010 @ 06:58 AM EDT (#218758) #

Yunel Escobar has been fantastic. For a guy who doesn't steal many bases, he seems quick, and his bunting ability is extremely solid. And we -need- a bunter on this team. It's so contradictory to our home run philosophy and I am loving it as a big fan of small ball.

Dave Till - Tuesday, July 20 2010 @ 07:39 AM EDT (#218759) #

Escobar is a test for Cito Gaston, and for whoever follows Gaston. Job One for a major league manager is to figure out how to get self-absorbed, supremely gifted millionaires to work together as a team and to give their best on the field, day after day, even when the team is out of the pennant race. The other parts of the job - figuring out how to keep your bullpen healthy, when to rest your regulars, and when to make strategic on-field decisions - can be performed successfully by anybody who has played a few games of Strat-O-Matic baseball or watched a team for any length of time.

There is no question that Escobar has tremendous talent. In the few days we have seen him, he has done just about everything a ballplayer can do. He can draw walks, he seems to have excellent range at shortstop, his power appears to be coming back, and he even knows how to bunt. It's Cito's job to motivate him to use these talents consistently on a day-to-day basis. Finding out whether this is possible is going to be what's most interesting about the rest of the season for the 2010 Jays, unless AA pulls off another interesting trade.

All I can say is: it's got to be a good sign when a player knows how to bunt - that's a skill that takes some effort to perfect, and usually doesn't show up in the stats. And: it's easier to change the attitude of a talented ballplayer than to give a player with great attitude more talent.

John Northey - Tuesday, July 20 2010 @ 08:03 AM EDT (#218760) #

Great point about how you can always work on attitude but nothing replaces raw talent. Right now the Jays have 2 guys who are viewed as head cases thus were far cheaper to get than otherwise would've been expected in Encarnacion and Escobar. One is off to a fast start while the other was exposed on waivers and found no takers.

I think it is a worthwhile exercise to grab these guys when you get a chance as one never knows and the reward, if one does come back to form, is very high. If not Vegas can always use a few more players.

Are there other head cases out there that might be worth pursuing?

whiterasta80 - Tuesday, July 20 2010 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#218767) #

Milton Bradley? Just kidding.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, July 20 2010 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#218784) #

Every year, people act like they absolutely know what is going to happen, and every year many of their predictions turn out to be absolutely wrong. And it keeps going, and many people never accept the premise that maybe the people running the team know what they're doing; or, at the very least, that the team knows a lot of things even the most ardent observer does not.

During the offseason, I don't think most people - myself included - would have minded if Jose Bautista had been released or traded for a scrub middle reliever at A-ball. But his late-2009 power surge was more than a statistical blip, and here he is leading the league in home runs. Some of his unexpected upside has rubbed off on John Buck, a free agent most greeted with, at best, indifference. Of course, that good news was balanced by Hill & Lind simultaneously forgetting how to hit, slumping beneath anyone's worst-case scenarios.

It's not the predictions that bother me, but the absolute certainty with which they're made, the rejection of even the slightest possibility they're wrong, despite being surrounded by hundreds, if not thousands, of instances of smart, experienced, and informed observers being wrong every season.

Anders - Tuesday, July 20 2010 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#218785) #

At this juncture my manlove for Yunel Escobar knows no bounds. While it was unbelievably frustrating watching the Jays not execute yesterday (like the 90234 times late with runners on 1st and 2nd and 0 outs where they didn't bunt, the Adam Lind double play, Fred Lewis playing a single into a double, two out walks, not hitting with runners in scoring position, Vernon Wells, Kevin Gregg) one of the real joys was seeing Escobar, who hit his second home run in 4 games and was dynamite in the field. The run scoring infield single to tie the game where Edwin lunged at the ball and missed and Escobar barehanded it in the hole and threw on the fly to first was one of the most impressive things I've ever seen, and we were one shorthop that Overbay makes 98 out of 100 times from winning that game.

Side note, Vernon is scuffling terribly, basically swinging at first pitches all the time and popping up weakly, as he did in a key situation yesterday (he also grounded out forcing a runner at home). He has really looked bad lately.

jerjapan - Tuesday, July 20 2010 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#218791) #

it's got to be a good sign when a player knows how to bunt - that's a skill that takes some effort to perfect, and usually doesn't show up in the stats.

Dave, do the other Cuban table setters frequently bunt? I haven't watched enough play closely but would assume bunting is valued highly in the team-oriented Cuban leagues - in the same way many of the Japanese players (who I have had the chance to see frequently) have sound fundamentals and team-first skills. Not to detract from Escobar, who I'm loving, but his bunting skills may be more contextual than personal.

TamRa - Tuesday, July 20 2010 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#218813) #

Side note, Vernon is scuffling terribly,

Has been for about 2 months. His OPS over the last roughly 2 months is just over .700

Chuck - Tuesday, July 20 2010 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#218816) #

The run scoring infield single to tie the game where Edwin lunged at the ball and missed and Escobar barehanded it in the hole and threw on the fly to first was one of the most impressive things I've ever seen.

I wasn't watching and haven't seen a replay. To hear Wilner describe it, Escobar could have made the play with relative ease had he fielded it with his glove and then planted before throwing. You and he are clearly not in agreement. Anyone else want to weigh in on the truthiness continuum?

ayjackson - Tuesday, July 20 2010 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#218817) #

Wilner's smoking crack. Though perhaps if EE wasn't in the play at all, Escobar might have charged it a bit and backhanded it.

Overbay should have had it, but Gregg would have still had a nervous ninth ahead of him.

Anders - Tuesday, July 20 2010 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#218819) #

Wilner's smoking crack. Though perhaps if EE wasn't in the play at all, Escobar might have charged it a bit and backhanded it.

I have to agree. The way I saw/would describe the play was that the ball was a hard/high chopper in between short and third that Encarnacion (playing well off the line) sort of swung his glove at. Escobar couldn't charge it because E5 was in front of him, so he caught the ball barehanded on his back foot pretty deep in the hole, took about a half second and without planting made a hard and accurate throw that bounced 3 feet in front of Overbay and probably should have been shorthopped. The throw would have beat Kendall by about half a step, so there is literally no way that backhanding the ball and transferring it and his weight before throwing would have gotten Kendall, who runs reasonably well.

Let's put it this way, if Overbay scoops it that play is the highlight of the night.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 20 2010 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#218820) #

Chuck, if you're interested, you can see the play on the mlb.com recap. Cal Ripken (if he was positioned in such a way that he could get to the ball) would have planted and thrown. Ozzie Smith or Tony Fernandez might have done exactly what Escobar did.

For those who were not around for Ozzie, the Escobar play would have not been one of the top 20 of his career. It was pretty impressive though.

Magpie - Tuesday, July 20 2010 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#218860) #

What Anders said. That's exactly how I saw it. Also, while Escobar was there, I'm sure he wasn't expecting to field the ball with the third baseman right in front of him.

92-93 - Wednesday, July 21 2010 @ 03:35 AM EDT (#218872) #

Wilner blaming Escobar for bare-handing that ball was ludicrous, he made a solid defensive effort and the runner simply beat the throw. I suspect Wilner's opinion has a lot to do with the fact that over Yunel's first few games Ashby called him out more than once for making a routine play harder than it should have been while completing it. I did think Yunel could have made a better effort at the GB up the middle in the 9th though.

Speaking of the radio team, anybody who caught a bit of the radio broadcast tonight was treated to a Bull Durham style broadcast, with Jerry & Alan literally CALLING the game from KC on their cell phone. Would have been perfect if Tom Young had the sound effects for them to re-create the game like the announcer in the move did for road games. Classic.

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