ex-Jay farmhand Erik Kratz called up by Pittsburgh during AAA all-star game

Kratz, who was 0-for-1 in the game, was in the dugout, slated to play one more inning. That's when his manager at Indianapolis and coach in the game, Frank Kemblas, approached him.

"First of all, I didn't want to come out of the game," Kratz told MLB Network's Mitch Williams from the dugout shortly after receiving the news. "I was like, 'Well, I've got one more inning, maybe one more at-bat ... see if I can get a hold of one or something."

Kemblas, in classic baseball prankster form, posed a simple question.

"He was like, 'You only had one more inning anyways,'" Kratz said. "'Would you rather go to the big leagues or go back into the game?'"

Kratz, a Pennsylvania native, was originally selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 29th round of the 2002 First-Year Player Draft

Good on Kratz!

1.  I am happy for Eric Kratz who is a really nice guy.

2. The trade of Tyler Pastornicky hurt Dunedin last night.  Justin McClanahan filled in as an emergency SS and he booted a couple of balls including a big one in the ninth inning.

3. The Auburn bullpen is killing them every night.  Their bullpen continually finds new ways to lose and I am not sure if I can find bullpen ERA's for the NYPL but Auburn's has to be over ten.

I am thrilled for Kratz. Great defender - who pitchers love throwing to - with solid MLB back-up potential. I actually wrote a post on him at fangraphs.com recently saying that he deserved a shot.

The Star has a very nice story about Hechavarria and fellow defector Jose Iglesias.

... And John Lott at the Post has a good in-depth story about J.P. Arencibia.

Same thrilling here. By the way, Marc, I actually read your article on Kratz at fansgraphs, which also mention Mike McCoy. And correctly Mike is playing in Jays' system. For next season, I believe the starting and backup combo of Arencibia and Kratz would be a nice one and demonstration of Blue Jays farm products (assuming Buck and Molina were no longer with the team).

Oops. The article mentioning McCoy was another one but anyhow it didn't take away the idea that the Jays taking on McCoy and probably Kratz next season.

Ryan Goins has been promoted to Dunedin to replace Tyler Pastornicky.

JP Arencibia homers in his first post all-star at-bat tonight.

JP Arencibia homers in his first post all-star at-bat tonight.

Natch.

Does anyone know much about this Andrew Hutchison cat, who started tonight for Auburn?  He's off to a very solid start, and he's not yet twenty.

In Baseball America's 2010 Prospect Handbook, they included an insert with each team's #31 best prospect - Hutchison ws the Jays'.

He was drafted out of Lakeland HS in Florida last year (15th round) for $400k to buy out a strong Stetson committment.  He showed good polish for a high school pitcher.  His fastball sits 88-90 and touches 92.  He has a good changeup and good potential on the slider. 

Ryan Goins has been promoted to Dunedin to replace Tyler Pastornicky.

Kinda expected that.

besides JPA going yard again tonight...

Brad Mills was sweet music, running his post-dl scoreless streak to 12 IP

Thames went 4/4

Snider is riding an 0/17 skid

Sobo left the Dunedin game without an official at-bat...injury?

Ydelmis Hernandez went 3/4 with 2 homers and a double for Auburn. the second coming of Adam Amar? ;)

KC Hobson went 3/4 too

Has JPA replaced Snider as the Jays top power hitting prospect? This statement would sound completely ridiculous just 2 months ago, I don't necessary believe so but this statement is at least debatable. JPA has crushed the ball more so than Snider ever did in the minors (given Snider is 3-4 years younger than JPA, so this might be a moot point). The more intriguing question to me is who has more power. We've seen Snider first hand hit some monster shots in the big leagues, and his minor league batting practices was stuff of legends. JPA from all report doesn't just hit home runs he crushes them. If there are any scouting types out there, what does their power rank on a 20-80 scale?

I'd guess that Arencibia's power is around 55-60 on the scouting scale out of 80 but the PCL really .

On another note, this short article from the University of South Carolina suggests that fourth rounder Sam Dyson will sign with Toronto. I would guess that he'll officially sign near the trade deadline. With his past injury problems and high innings total this year (including the playoffs), the Jays organization likely does not want him to throw many - if any - pro innings this season.

Along with Dyson, we also have newspaper articles or baseball officials suggesting that these players will sign but the announcements are being delayed by MLB to avoid impacting other teams' negotiations.

Griffin Murphy (2nd round)
Justin Nicolino (2nd round)
Dickie Thon (5th round)
Shane Opitz (11th round)
Jay Johnson (26th round)

I don't get the easy dismissal of JPA by some baseball experts.  Keith Law and some others are dismissing him because he's repeating AAA...so what?  Mabye he'll crush MLB when he repeats that level.  Also the PCL numbers thing...way I look at it is, how many guys have more home runs than him....if there's better power hitters in the PCL, they should be hititng more than JPA. 

But one thing I will take with a grain of salt is that it's just 2 months where he's crushing the ball, and he's a very streaky hitter, he can get into pretty bad slumps too...he was hitting below .230 around May 15.

Baseball experts are not as reliable as you might think.  There are legions of highly touted players who never reach their expected performance in the majors.  And there are legions of players who were expected to be fringy guys who turn into all-stars.

Secondly players get labelled.  Arencibia is labelled as a low average, weak defense, good power hitter and unless he does a 180 from that, the label will stick. 

We don't know if Arencibia will be an overachiever or an underachiever.  We don't know if he has really learned to be more selective at the plate.  We don't know if his defense is major league ready.   So when he comes up it will be interesting to see which kind of player he is at the major league level.

 

Let's not forget how good Snider is just quite yet....

Year 2 AAA

• Snider (21): 204pa, .337/.431/.663/1.094
• Arencibia (24): 333pa, .317/.366/.663/1.030

Year 1 AAA

• Snider (20):  70pa, .344/.386/.516/.901
• Arencibia (23):  500pa, .236/.284/.444/.728

Baseball experts are not as reliable as you might think.  There are legions of highly touted players who never reach their expected performance in the majors.  And there are legions of players who were expected to be fringy guys who turn into all-stars.

People on this site love to attempt to project these guys when all they are looking at are minor league stats and the odd scouting report.

Many of these scouting reports are from guys like Keith Law, who has seen most players a couple of times. Can you fairly judge a prospect based on two or three views? I certainly don't think so.

I'm not putting anyone down. I enjoy the discussion. But I do get tired of reading attempts to make projections for guys by guys that have never seen said players more than once or twice. It's all pie in the sky.

Honestly, how much do you really think you can learn about a prospect by watching him "once or twice" ?

and I think you'd be surprised how much the "experts" rely on second hand scouting reports and video clips of players that we all have access to, and how much of their projections rely on the numbers.

Steiveboy22 - well put - make mine pumpkin with a large dollop of whipped cream. Delicious. (Single malt cream - natch)

Stevieboy - on point.

Actually watching the players - especially prospects - will tell you all you need to know.

Many of the so-called "prospect pundits" - have never even seen the players they are writing about. LOL

Some write for money - some write to feed their ego - and some just write for the heck of it.

Most of it is meaningless -and  in some cases ridiculous.

Its all fun and good though - because when all is said and done - nothing beats consistent performance.

Useless hype reveals itself - and performance almost always rises to the top.

not untrue but, IMO, pretty irrelevant. People blog about ballplayer's attitudes - and have never met them....they call managers stupid 9or a genius) and have nothing but hindsight and difference of opinion  behind it....they make declerations about everyone from GMs to announcers with little to base it on....get outside of the sports world and you find people writing the same things with the same weaknesses about celbrities or politicians or whatever.

Heck, i've seen dozens of comments by Canadians on one jays boards or another about U.S. politicis or politicians that were horribly ill-informed.

That is what happens on the internet.

to comment on it is like informing us that there are a lot of kitten pictures on-line. anyone who doesn't know that i've never seen even one of our prospects play a whole game and factored that into how much attention to they pay to my opinions is already a lost cause.

I pay some respect to those members here who regularly watch one of our franchises play, of course, but even then they are not pro-scouts, but beyond that - when someone is basing their opinion on stat trends and published comments from professionals like i am - I factor that into how much stock i put in their comments as a matter of course.

any thinking fan already does and again, it's stating the obvious to make a point about it.

People like to talk sports, they like to have and express opinions, they like to make predictions that they might get to crow about if they come true, etc, and etc. I don't think any of us imagines ourselves an expert - and i think any one of us, were we to be hired by ESPN to provide commentary like Law or Neyer or Olney WOULD think ourselves an expert, even if we didn't watch a bit more baseball as a paid analyist than we do now for free.

I absolutely respect guys i know  have either better training, more access, or are just plain smarter than me - but i reserve the right to disagree. but when i do disagree, i do so guardedly because i recognize my own weaknesses. the challenge comes in when two guys i respect equally well completely disagree with each other on a point.
But that's all digression - the point is that what you are basically saying, it seems to me, is that a lot of us arrogantly think we're smarter than everyone else. i don't, i just enjoy stating my opinion and exchanging ideas. but even so, when you point that out...it's kinda like you saying you're even smarter than them because you've figured them out.
Only thing is, that which you figured out was never a secret in the first place.

WillRain,

You are attributing alot of things to me - all negative.

That's life and that's OK.

As for me speaking for myself - I said quite simply - lots of people give their opinions on prospects without ever having actually seen them.

I think that is ridiculous.

I also said that consistent performance trumps hype - everytime.
It may take awhile - but it always does.

Thats my opinions.
It doesnt make me smarter - or dumber - or less qualified - or more qualified or anything else.

It is just my opinion and I am sorry if that is upsetting to you.

I'm not upset and i'm not trying to attribute anything particularly negative to you EXCEPT that which happens subconciously and then pointing out that that is an example of the fact that the phenomena you describe is EVERYWHERE.


Is it "ridiculous" that people like me comment on, for instance, Justin Jackson never having seen him/them play? I suppose you could argue that. but it's no MORE ridiculous than 95% of the other unpaid commentary posted on-line about, well, pretty much anything.

it's just the nature of the beast. All I was saying about you is that the only reason any of us post anything is because we are enamoured of our own OPINION - which is just what you said you just posted - your OPINION.

and that's what I (or whoever) post about players we haven't seen much or anything of - opinion.

Thus, in a bit of irony, your post was an example of that which you are criticizing. it has nothing to do with who's smarter than who in reality...what I'm saying is that the unstated implication of any expressed opinion is "let me tell you something i know that you don't"
most of us aren't really thinking "let me inform this dumb bozo"....and certainly wouldn't say that - but the idea behind expressing an opinion is that you are impressed with it.

do I think i'm smarter than mike green (for instance)? HECK NO - I don't even know him but i could easily concede that I'm not.

do i think my opinion of Pastornicky is better than his? Yup. Else it wouldn't be my opinion. so the implication of holding what i think is a better opinion is that i know more than he does, at least on this point...but i don't ACTUALLY claim to be smarter. it's just the nature of expressing contrary opinion.

I think I'm talking in circles.

let me try again to be plain-spoken.

I'm not upset.
I'm making no implications that you are trying to be a smart-a$$ or anything like that.
I'm just saying that pointing out that people comment on players they haven't really scouted is stating the obvious - and thus it comes off - unintentionaly I'm sure - as being a bit condescending to those who do it.

As for me speaking for myself - I said quite simply - lots of people give their opinions on prospects without ever having actually seen them.

I think that is ridiculous.

I also said that consistent performance trumps hype - everytime


2 interesting points you make:

1) giving an opinion on prospects based only on stats is ridiculous.
2) consistent performance trumps hype


Honest question(s):

1) What gives you a better idea of "consistent performance" - a) stats;  OR b) watching the prospect "once or twice" ?
2) What causes more baseless hype - a) stats; OR b) watching the prospect "once or twice" ?

Will,

I appreciate and understand what you are saying - and agree that it may come off that way.
Certainly not intended.

And I do understand that its all just cyber talk and entertainment.


Uglyone - as far as prospects in the minor leagues are concerned - I would opt for the seeing - as opposed to the reading - everytime.
However -  I did not say that watching someone "once or twice" would be sufficient. You put that in your question - I didnt.




 

realistically, holding out for "eyes on" reports is going to limit commentary to the 3 or 4 members who happen to live in or travel to the minor league towns - and then you are at the mercy of their opinions, eyes, and scouting ability (no offense intended to those among us who do those reports)

In other words - it's kind of an unrealistic hope to restrict ourselves to "eyes-on" scouting.

that said, I, for one, absolutely do factor in what those observers tell me about the players they see. and even more so those professionals associated with the jays who are interviewed by Gerry and others.

if I'm looking at the stats and they tell me "Player X has good power because of all the homers" and the scouting tells me that these are "just enough" homers in small parks or whatever - something that mitigates what the stat sheet says, I consider that in my expressed opinions. couterwise, if someone says "Pitcher Y is getting knocked around  because the team insists he work on his change-up" then that too, mitigates what might otherwise been a too-negative opinion.

But yeah, ultimately, if i'm going to form an opinion at all, it HAS to be heavily stat-influenced by the nature of the circumstances. I don't see any way around that.

Some responses to Will Rain’s postings in this thread:

I'm not upset and i'm not trying to attribute anything particularly negative to you EXCEPT that which happens subconciously and then pointing out that that is an example of the fact that the phenomena you describe is EVERYWHERE.

1)  Do you *know* what happens in someone else’s subconscious?  Amazing!

2)  As to   the phenomena you describe is EVERYWHERE.

No it’s *not*.  There are still a few places left, where self-discipline and articulate argument can be found.  Da Box is often one of them.

Is it "ridiculous" that people like me comment on, for instance, Justin Jackson never having seen him/them play? I suppose you could argue that. but it's no MORE ridiculous than 95% of the other unpaid commentary posted on-line about, well, pretty much anything.

Since its inception, DaBox has striven to be in the other 5%-- of articulate, considered analysis and commentary.  Not just the same old, same old.      I like it that way.
 
All I was saying about you is that the only reason any of us post anything is because we are enamoured of our own OPINION.

That’s very revealing, and quite damning, in my view.

what I'm saying is that the unstated implication of any expressed opinion is "let me tell you something i know that you don't"

Really?   And how, if that is the case,  do you know that the rest of us don’t know something?

- but the idea behind expressing an opinion is that you are impressed with it.

Again, really?  Does it follow that your being impressed with it makes it worth posting?

I think I'm talking in circles.      Yes, again.
 
That is what happens on the internet.

Some of it; but thank god not all of it.  Why not try to elevate  “the internet” standard a bit?  Your view seems to be that much internet commentary is just mindless running-on at the mouth, so that gives you license to do the same.

People like to talk sports, they like to have and express opinions, they like to make predictions that they might get to crow about if they come true, etc, and etc.  I don't think any of us imagines ourselves an expert -

Oh?

 and i think any one of us, were we to be hired by ESPN to provide commentary like Law or Neyer or Olney WOULD think ourselves an expert, even if we didn't watch a bit more baseball as a paid analyist than we do now for free.

Who aspires to that?

 i just enjoy stating my opinion and exchanging ideas

 Yes, you do.  But is your opinion a) something no one else has offered, b) concisely and articulately expressed, c) actually on the topic in the thread?  d) Really worth sharing?

(And not many “ideas” actually get exchanged though, do they?)

That’s very revealing, and quite damning, in my view.

In your view?

Is that like...an opinion?

And are you enamoured of that opinion?

Yeah. thought so.

I leave the rest of the one-upmanship aside. The last thing this board needs is another exchange of someone putting me in my place and me arguing against it.

Your ...opinion...is noted and logged.

It’s revealing because it says you believe we all post for the same self-indulgent reasons you apparently do.  It’s damning because of the low view that that implies you have of your readers.  Your own enjoyment is paramount, as you have repeatedly said:  you don’t really seem to give a damn about your readers.  Which is what I mean by being self-indulgent.  Have a little more respect for your audience;  and things will no doubt go better for all of us.

There’s no “one-upmanship” involved.  Just a protest about Da Box being turned into just another sports site, where opinion is all that matters.  It’s nice that you’ve noted my comments and logged them (whatever that means) .  It would be even nicer if you took them to heart, and realized that posters would not have sent such criticisms without having reached the end of their patience

*shrug*
I get as many compliments as I do complaints - more even. Can't please everyone and even the best or most popular (obviously not the same thing) in any field have their critics - and i surely don't imagine myself in either classification.

If you honestly think that the sum total point of my posts in this thread is "I love the sound of my own virtual voice so much i just have to share it with the world" then i'm not going to expend effort bringing your reading comprehension up to speed.

Just give thought to the word "context" - ok?

What Dewey said.

The later parts of this thread are giving me a headache. As many of you may know it happens to me a lot.

I give LOTS of opinions here. For instance, I've commented - at some length - about a certain Mr Collins, a shortish strike out king you may have heard of. I've NEVER seen the guy pitch. Not a game, nada, zilch, zip. I have however read nearly everything that's been written about him from every source I could find for at least three years - might be four years. As I have for damn near every other guy that wears a Jays uniform in the minors - and majors. MUCH of what I've read IS from sources that have seen him pitch. I've studied his stats and I've used my scotch (single malt) befuddled brain to come up with a considered opinion about the guy - In Tiny Tim's case, my findings were positive. Being retired I've lots of time to follow the Jay's on a daily basis year round - in fact the Jays are my only non-sexual fetish. If you want to know my sexual fetishes you'll have to pay.

Am I right about Tiny Tim's future? Fu*ked if I know. Lets talk about it in 10 years. Am I entitled to voice my opinion - to quote the stupidest woman in America - "You betcha!"

I love this site and all who sail her. Even the presumptions ones like me - you know - the ones with opinions.

Mylegacy well said sir !!

IMO there will be a lot of disagreement,complaining and very heated words spoken soon on this site. Er... continued to be voiced.
I agree with an expressed opinion that many of our prospects will be dealt by AA soon and often as he trades to get the players he wants. If the arm of Seirra or Farquar is lost I will be hurting. My jaw will drop when (IMO not IF)one of our experienced and successful SP is dealt and AA will do it quietly. Other teams will want our good prospects like those catchers.

Speaking of opinions - I'm curious to hear some on this one.

How do the Toronto Blue Jays expect to win anything when they have a team OBP at the bottom of the barrel?

It is no coincidence that the teams with the lowest OBP are the same teams that are last - or next to last - in their respective divisions.





 

It is no coincidence that the teams with the lowest OBP are the same teams that are last - or next to last - in their respective divisions.

That's because it's often a sign of a really bad offense.  I just not sure that's the case with the Jays.  They are a great slugging team and I'd like to see more evidence to see if the fact that they have a poor offense is reflective of their bad OBP or has some measure of poor luck built in.  My gut says a top power club that has the worst OBP might normally have an "average" offense from a production standpoint.

I'd bet though, that if the offense improves over the second half, it'll be attributed to the on-base contributions of Lind, Escobar and Snider.

I'll try not to bite on the "bottom of the division" comment...considering we're not near the bottom team in our division....and that we're an above .500 team.....

....but I'll mention that our OBP probably won't be that much of an issue going forward, with Escobar and Snider replacing Gonzalez and Encarnacion's sub-.300 obps, and Hill and Lind most likely seeing a massive improvement in their hilariously bad numbers going forward.

My gut says a top power club that has the worst OBP might normally have an "average" offense from a production standpoint.

The Jays are certainly a data point that supports your hypothesis. The AL average is 4.53 runs per game; the Jays are at 4.52. League average OBP/SLG is 331/410; the Jays are at 306/447.

How do the Toronto Blue Jays expect to win anything when they have a team OBP at the bottom of the barrel?

They don't.  This is a rebuilding year and the offense on the field is a combination of keepers, guys filling spots, and Lind and Hill having terrible years.

Their OBP does need to be better in the years they expect to compete.

The Jays are certainly a data point that supports your hypothesis. The AL average is 4.53 runs per game; the Jays are at 4.52. League average OBP/SLG is 331/410; the Jays are at 306/447.

I think people have taken the whole "OBP is more important than SLG" argument a bit too far. It may be more important, but the difference is not huge.  And we have to remember - as important as OBP may be, OPS still has a higher correlation with actual offensive production than just OBP does.  Ignoring SLG is much more inaccurate than including it as equal to OBA.

wOBA balances the two better than ops, of course, and the Jays are 7th in wOBA at .328. just behind TB (.335), MIN (.336), DET (.337), and TEX (.338), and just ahead of CHI (.327).

IMO - It is an interesting choice.

Given the multitude of different statistical measures we now have - it can get a bit confusing.

I have always tried to keep it simple - (Simple things for simple minds LOL)

In order to win consistently you need:

Pitching - defense and men on base.

The Steroid Era reduced baseball to what college baseball is now - Bang ball.
Shoddy defense - poor baserunning and bad fundamentals. Just wait for the banger.
It rarely works IMO.

I see that changing a bit - back to old school baseball - and I am glad.

Great teams have great pitching - strong defense and a balanced offensive attack.

The Blue Jays have quite a ways to go when it comes to the last two. But I am confident that AA will get them there.