The Lind at-bat in the first inning appears to have been the turning point of the game. Last year he was excellent when jumping on the first pitch, and Ashby thinks that's been a big problem of his this year, letting the best pitch to hit sail by. He attacked last night, which I guess is a good thing, but came up empty, and when Hill followed with an out it took the steam out of what looked like a promising start. Hopefully the Jays can win 5 or 6 of these 12 games before the break and head in above .500, because who knows where things go from there after a nice rest. The Jays open the 2nd half schedule with a 10g road trip but it's a reprieve compared to the opponents they've been facing lately, @CLE @KC @DET. Then they get BAL & CLE at home before getting into the meat of the schedule after the trading deadline, but a strong finish in July could mean the roster gets bolstered instead of gutted, and 6 GB of Boston is not insurmountable considering the injuries they are dealing with. I'm skeptical of teams giving up enough for Downs/Frasor/Buck/Gonzalez to make it worthwhile to just sell as opposed to offering them arbitration and receiving compensation draft picks.

Just visited the website Christopher, got suckered in when I checked out Rzepczynski's stats :)

As much as the young pitchers have been fun to watch, it is balanced by the pain of watching the offense (sure, the HR are nice... but still).

At the start of the season, I thought the team's offensive upside was league average, and that's exactly where they are (4.53 R/G; league average is 4.55). So many players are due for a regression -- Wells, Bautista, Buck, Gonzalez -- that rebounds from Hill and Lind, and a return by Snider, may not be enough to serve as an offset. I still see league average as the team's offensive upside, not the expectation.

Interestingly, the team's pitching is almost exactly league average as well (4.40 R/G; league average is 4.48).

Yes, I know both the offense and pitching are subject to higher than average caliber opposition, so both come with the prerequisite asterisks.

So many players are due for a regression -- Wells, Bautista, Buck, Gonzalez -- that rebounds from Hill and Lind, and a return by Snider, may not be enough to serve as an offset.

I don't think your math adds up.

Due for Regression:

1. J.Bautista (+.148ops career / +.142ops peak)
2. J.Buck (+.122 / +.056)
3. V.Wells (+.111 / +.008)
4. A.Gonzalez (+.097 / -.001)

Due for Improvement:

1. A.Lind (-.183ops career / -.323ops peak)
2. A.Hill (-.114 / -.184)
3. L.Overbay (-.102 / .178)
4. T.Snider (value over injury replacements EE/Hoff/McCoy/Wise/Reed)

I'd say there's more than enough expected improvement to make up for the regression.

Well with Romero, Marcum, Morrow and hopefully Cecil (if he starts to rebound) we have 4 above average starters.

Inning limits will likely be placed on the latter three, meaning that a bunch of second half starts will be going to starters #6 and beyond. That alone should result in a decline in starting pitching in the second half. Further, fatigue may become a factor for both Romero and Marcum. And some regression. Change-up specialists tend to give up more homeruns than they have thus far.

I would imagine that a rebound from the relievers is not out of the question given the level of underperformance we have witnessed to date. Will that be enough to balance the probable decline in starting pitching?

What the jays should?

SELL!!!SELL!!!SELL!!!

My apologies for using the blog for an off topic subject. I have 2 friends who have purchased tickets for the Yanks and Mariners from July 8 to 11. We've had some real bad floods here and these folks have extensive home and property damage. They have these excellent tics they can not use and would like to sell. If you are interested, please send me an email and I'll hook you up.

They are excellent tickets that are all in the Terrace Club (on the aisle) close to first and/or third base. Thursday, July 8 7:10 pm Section 220 Row 6 Seat 3 & 4 (first base area) Friday, July 9 7:10 pm Section 119 Row 9 Seat 1 & 2 (first base area) Saturday, July 10 7:10 pm Section 244 Row 3 Seat 1 & 2 (third base area) Sunday, July 11 1:10 pm Section 119 Row 9 Seat 1 & 2 (first base area)

Oh, wait. You were talking at the deadline. Sorry. I thought you meant now. Lost track of which thread I was in.

Most of those moves don't have to wait for the deadlne - dumping Hoff, Wise, Green, Overbay, Frasor could happen today for all it matters. We won't gain anything by holding off on it until the deadline. We're likely hurting ourselves by keeping them ahead of some of the guys on the farm, to be honest.

Buck and Downs, though, we're probably best served by waiting until the deadline.

Before we get too excited about the hitting stars of Las Vegas, it's worthwhile to consider Jarrett Hoffpauir for a moment.  Sure, it's a small sample size, but his OPS has plunged from .910 (PCL) to .426 (MLB).  At the age of 27, with a short stint in the majors already in 2009, Hoffpauir's adjustment to major-league pitching should have been a little easier than a 23-year-old or 24-year-old like Wallace or JPA.   In the PCL, Hoffpauir was lights out:  hitting for average, hitting for power, hitting for the cycle twice.  Yet in the majors, handed a starting role and plenty of at-bats, he is struggling dismally.  (Yes, a small sample, but is anyone predicting that he'll dramatically improve in a much bigger sample?)

A few large caveats to that:

1. This is Hoffpauir's FOURTH season in AAA. He has 1362 plate appearances in AAA. He is 27 years old - he has had ample opportunity to learn that level.   This is much different than 23/24 year old JPA and Wallace, in their 2nd seasons in AAA.
2. Hoff posting a .900ish ops isn't as impressive as guys like JPA and Lubo and EE hitting closer to 1.000ops down there.
3. Hoffpauir simply doesn't have the athletic talent or track record of guys like JPA, Lubo, EE, or Wallace. His track record and lack of performance at MLB level fits the AAAA profile perfectly - a guy who has learned over many at bats how to hit well at the AAA level, but can't cover for his weaknesses against better MLB pitching.

You're way underestimating Overbay. In 10 major league seasons he has a career OPS+ of 110. That is well above average. He has 5 full seasons with an OPS+ greater then 108, and 3 of those with an OPS+ greater then 120. He's a solid major league player, and right now is sadly even in an off year for him one of our best hitters over the last month.

I hate that people keep saying that Overbay was one of our best hitters over the last month. That's damning with faint praise. Overbay has been barely passable over the last month, still can't hit lefties at all, and is nowhere near hitting well enough for a 1B still. And he's had a better month than all of Gonzalez/Lewis/Bautista by only the smallest of margins - and those are their DOWN months. We can't keep trying to praise Overbay for having one month that wasn't absolutely horrific.

June:

1. Molina: 17ab, .921ops
2. Wells: 92ab, .814
3. Buck: 66ab, .807
4. Overbay: 75ab, .757
5. Gonzalez: 84ab, .744
6. Lewis: 82ab, .726
7. Bautista: 80ab, .724
8. Hill: 97ab, .604
9. Encarnacion: 48ab, .598
10. McDonald: 10ab, .500
11. McCoy: 8ab, .500
12. Lind: 89ab, .455
13. Hoffpauir: 23ab, .426
14. Wise: 14ab, .357
15. Reed: 6ab, .143

Regardless Overbay has been an above average major league hitter over his career. Would love to get some more players in here with a 110 lifetime OPS+.

Bear in mind that the average OPS+ for first basemen is probably more like 110 than 100, making Overbay average for his career when adjusted for position.