The Jays had a day off on Monday after taking two of three from San Francisco. Next come three home games against the Cardinals in which they'll face three pretty freaking good pitchers: Jamie Garcia tonight, Chris Carpenter on Wednesday, and Adam Wainwright on Thursday. Let's take a Fangraphy look at those pitchers.
Tuesday - Jamie Garcia
Tonight's starter has been one of the best starters in baseball this year, thanks primarily to his incredible ground ball rate of almost 60%. His peripherals suggest he's been lucky, though, so hopefully we'll see some regression to the mean tonight.
Wednesday - Chris Carpenter
After basically missing all of 2007 and 2008, Carpenter seems to be right back to doing what he does best: getting ground balls, walking nobody, and striking out a fair number. In other words, being great. Seriously, look at those numbers - that is consistency. He had some luck with fly balls last year, but otherwise his stats look awfully similar. The Jays will counter with their ace, Ricky Romero, in what will be a great match-up.
Thursday - Adam Wainwright
Wainwright was a top contender for the Cy Young last year, and this year he's been just about as good. How did he go from being a pretty good pticher in 2008 to an elite pitcher the last two years? Apart from the Dave Duncan effect, anyway? Looks like the ascent can be attributed primarily to a rise in strikeouts (by 2 K/9) and ground ball % (about 5%) while maintaining his excellent control. Nothing particularly out of the ordinary there.
These are some tough pitchers, and the Cardinals' offense isn't too shabby, either. The good guys should be happy if they take two out of three this week.
Tuesday - Jamie Garcia
Tonight's starter has been one of the best starters in baseball this year, thanks primarily to his incredible ground ball rate of almost 60%. His peripherals suggest he's been lucky, though, so hopefully we'll see some regression to the mean tonight.
| Season | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
| 2010 | 13 | 79.1 | 7.49 | 3.97 | 0.23 | 0.279 | 84.40% | 58.40% | 4.00% | 1.59 | 3.19 | 3.72 | 1.8 |
Wednesday - Chris Carpenter
After basically missing all of 2007 and 2008, Carpenter seems to be right back to doing what he does best: getting ground balls, walking nobody, and striking out a fair number. In other words, being great. Seriously, look at those numbers - that is consistency. He had some luck with fly balls last year, but otherwise his stats look awfully similar. The Jays will counter with their ace, Ricky Romero, in what will be a great match-up.
| Season | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
| 2006 | 32 | 221.2 | 7.47 | 1.75 | 0.85 | 0.282 | 76.30% | 53.30% | 11.50% | 3.09 | 3.44 | 3.32 | 5.2 |
| 2009 | 28 | 192.2 | 6.73 | 1.78 | 0.33 | 0.272 | 79.50% | 55.00% | 4.60% | 2.24 | 2.78 | 3.38 | 5.6 |
| 2010 | 15 | 101.2 | 7.79 | 2.3 | 0.97 | 0.287 | 80.10% | 54.10% | 13.10% | 2.83 | 3.78 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
Thursday - Adam Wainwright
Wainwright was a top contender for the Cy Young last year, and this year he's been just about as good. How did he go from being a pretty good pticher in 2008 to an elite pitcher the last two years? Apart from the Dave Duncan effect, anyway? Looks like the ascent can be attributed primarily to a rise in strikeouts (by 2 K/9) and ground ball % (about 5%) while maintaining his excellent control. Nothing particularly out of the ordinary there.
| Season | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
| 2008 | 20 | 132 | 6.2 | 2.32 | 0.82 | 0.281 | 76.00% | 45.90% | 8.50% | 3.2 | 3.78 | 4.06 | 2.2 |
| 2009 | 34 | 233 | 8.19 | 2.55 | 0.66 | 0.309 | 80.40% | 50.70% | 8.30% | 2.63 | 3.11 | 3.36 | 5.7 |
| 2010 | 15 | 109 | 8.34 | 2.39 | 0.5 | 0.264 | 80.30% | 52.30% | 6.80% | 2.23 | 2.9 | 3.29 | 2.9 |
These are some tough pitchers, and the Cardinals' offense isn't too shabby, either. The good guys should be happy if they take two out of three this week.
