Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - TDIB 01 June 2010: 2 Months in the Books

TDIB 01 June 2010: 2 Months in the Books

The Jays start the third month of the season with the 5th best record in baseball, bested only by the Rays, Yanks, Twins and Padres.

They also have the 5th best run differential at +49, with St. Louis replacing San Diego in the list of teams ahead.

Brandon Morrow was great on Monday night, allowing a single run over seven. And he didn't actually allow that run; it was an inherited runner that Scott Downs waved through.

So Morrow was great. We're used to seeing him shut down an opponent every few starts. And yet this is not how we're used to seeing it happen. Morrow, with his incredible rates of 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings and 5.8 walks per nine innings, managed to spend seven innings walking just two and striking out only one.

I would have been interested in watching this start to see what kind of contact he was getting. I'm sure there are plenty of Bauxites who can provide some insight. Was he keeping hitters off-balance, inducing weak swings and softly-hit balls? Or was he just getting lucky with balls in play?

I would love to get all excited about Morrow finding a new strategy (pitch to contact!) that works with his stuff and gets him to throw strikes. But to be honest with you, it seems like it's something new every week with Morrow. Marcum notices something and tweaks his mechanics. Buck talks about about establishing all his pitches early and not relying on the fastball. "Bingo!", I think. "Now, just do that every time." Were life that simple.

Do you think the Jays should pick one strategy and try to stick with it? Or does Morrow have so much naturally inconsistency (also known as Baseball ADHD) that it would be counter-productive? Would it be better to just send him out there and let him do his thing, gaining major-league experience and improving incrementally in each facet of the game rather than focusing on mastering a particular approach?

It's like my golf swing. When I was taught to swing a golf club - probably by my dad, though I'm not entirely sure on that, especially since my dad isn't a very good golfer - I was taught one basic thing: keep your left arm straight on the backswing, straighten both arms through the stroke, and then keep your right arm straight on the follow-through. And to this day, that's all I think about when I'm swinging. I'm not sure, for example, what my hips are supposed to do - I assume that's a big part of golf swings. Maybe mine do the right thing naturally. Probably not.

I've never bothered to try improving my swing because I don't play very often - probably between 0-2 times per year. Every time I hit the course it's been so long that it takes me some time to figure things out. I show up on the first tee not knowing if I'll slice, hook, or blast one right down the middle. (Usually none of the above - on the first hole I'm happy if I make it past the reds.) I spend a few holes alternately compensating my swing as the ball's trajectory gradually approaches straight, like damped harmonic motion, and by the middle of the round I'm into a rhythm and my strokes become more consistent and I end up playing about as well as I always do, no matter if it's been a week or a year.

But aside from the infrequency of my golfing, I'm just not a body mechanics type of person. If I tried to introduce new theory and components into my swing, I think it would be counter-productive, because I'd be thinking about it, and I just don't have the dedication to hit ball after ball at the driving range until it's drilled into my subconscious.

And maybe Morrow is the same way. Maybe routine just doesn't work for him. Maybe he's the kind of pitcher who needs to go in to a start not having a clue what his repertoire is going to be, and make it up as he goes along until something works. And the more he pitches, the more he gets a feel for what is going to work on a given day. Just like if I played golf every five days, I'd actually start to improve, even without reading Lower Your Handicap by 5 in 5 Minutes! or ordering the Swing Correctron 2000.

Posted by Dave Rutt on Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 12:27 AM EDT.

TDIB 01 June 2010: 2 Months in the Books | 87 comments | Create New Account

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China fan - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 04:59 AM EDT (#215962) #

As Magpie recently pointed out, the Jays bullpen has been close to league-average, so the following comments are not meant to be harshly critical -- it would be unfair to single out the bullpen as a sinkhole or cesspool as some commenters did earlier in the season. But it's true that the bullpen has been worryingly inconsistent. Nobody has grabbed hold of the closer's job, or even the set-up job, on a consistent basis. There's nobody that has really impressed as a lights-out pitcher in any of the key bullpen slots. Gregg last night gave us a heart attack, again. Neither Downs nor Frasor have established themselves as the clear choice in the 8th inning, although I suppose Downs has come the closest to it. And in 2011 the team could be losing two or three of these guys as free agents, so the bullpen is a long-term issue that needs to be addressed this season.

On a positive note: I'm glad that Gaston and Anthopolous are beginning to think outside the box on the bullpen personnel. Last night Gaston called on Shawn Camp in the 8th inning -- not his normal role, but Camp has been reliable in the middle innings so why not give him an occasional shot in the 8th inning? The Jays also chose to send down Roenicke, rather than Rommie Lewis, to make room for Tallet, even though Roenicke has the better-known pedigree as a high-profile prospect. (It's interesting that Roenicke and Lewis are almost exactly the same age -- Lewis is actually 29 days younger than Roenicke -- but Lewis has never gotten the hype that has been lavished on Roenicke. Lewis won the bullpen job with actual performance, not from pedigree or hype or expectation.)

Looking to 2011: the bullpen has lots of potential depth, but the depth tends to be quantity, not quality. There are lots of possible names in the picture (Purcey, Carlson, Accardo, Lewis, Roenicke, Janssen, etc, etc) but most of those names have question marks surrounding them. We can hope that someone like Magnuson makes a rapid rise to the major leagues, but you wouldn't want to count on it. If they want to be contenders in 2011, the Jays might have to target a free agent in the offseason, or face the dubious prospect of throwing money at Gregg, Downs and Frasor again.

Alex Obal - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 05:05 AM EDT (#215963) #

Stat of the Day: Jose Bautista's BABIP. Guess.

Lower.

Nope, lower.

Lower than that...

Alex Obal - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 05:10 AM EDT (#215964) #

Oh, and Morrow got hit mondo hard in the first two innings. Zobrist hit the hardest ball of the night right at Wells to lead off, Longoria made Lewis make an over-the-shoulder catch on a liner. Then Morrow settled in and they didn't get much of anything over the next 5+ innings.

scottt - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 06:23 AM EDT (#215966) #

Just quoting the official highlights:

Morrow, who didn't allow his first hit until there were two outs in the sixth, said he succeeded by taking a little off his pitches.

"I've had better stuff, meaning a nastier slider or a better fastball," Morrow said. "But I think this is probably my best game in terms of making pitches, not trying to throw that nasty curveball and instead just flipping it in for a strike.

"Rays manager Joe Maddon, whose team has lost six of eight, noticed the difference in Morrow."He was a little bit softer than normal," Maddon said. "It looked like he was trying to tone it down a bit to throw more strikes. He pitched fine. He didn't have, for me, no-hit stuff going into the sixth inning. We just weren't very fortunate to that point."

Jevant - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 08:02 AM EDT (#215967) #

I normally like Maddon, but seriously - "He didn't have no-hit stuff going into the sixth inning".

Really? After he no-hit you for 5 innings, that's what you come back with?

rpriske - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 08:38 AM EDT (#215968) #

It sounds like he is criticizing his own hitters there.

Hodgie - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#215969) #

I was not able to catch all of the game, however what I saw of Morrow supported the fact he was taking something off of his pitches if the RC gun can be trusted. His fastball seemed to be sitting 89-91 most of the time that I saw him throw it, although even then he seemed to have a tough time locating it. I am not sure how viable this is as a long term strategy though. It is one thing to take something off your pitches to induce more movement (paging Doc Halladay) but quite another thing to do it in order to guide your pitches over the plate. Flipping your curveball just to get it over the plate is usually followed by a 25 second run around the bases....

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#215970) #

Thumbs up for the decision to send down Roenicke, rather than Purcey. The interesting decision will occur when Litsch returns. With the off-day, the club can postpone that a while.

Niemann is pretty much the same pitcher as he was last year. He's putting up the sterling ERA due to a .229 BABIP and 86.3% LOB. Still, a pitcher who opens his career 20-8 with a 3.62 ERA and is the 5th starter. Whoa.

smcs - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#215971) #

To answer an earlier question, Bautista's BABIP is, I believe, in the .230 range. Must be due to all the HRs.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#215972) #

CF, the Jay bullpen has actually been much better than average. It's mostly the shape of the pen that is not optimal; the high-leverage guys really aren't much better, or maybe not better at all, than the lower leverage guys. As for 2011-2, who knows? Maybe, Morrow and Purcey will make a great 1-2 behind a rotation of Marcum, Romero, Litsch, Cecil and Drabek.

John Northey - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#215974) #

As fun as this is, remember that the last morning we woke up with the Jays in playoff position last year was June 24th.

Yup, that is how long the party was still going. I know it surprised me when I looked it up again.

John Northey - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#215975) #

Of course, checking last year I see they had just 3 games vs the Yankees to that point, 0 against Tampa, and 6 vs Boston.

From June 29th to July 9th 2009 the Jays played 10 vs Tampa & NYY (like this year it went TB/NYY/TB) and the end result was a 2-8 record. They then lost 2 of 3 to Baltimore (ugh) before a minor recovery taking 2 of 3 from Boston but by then the Jays were sub-500 and 10 games back.

Interesting that we get that big stretch a month earlier and it has started on a good note.

rtcaino - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#215976) #

If you golfed every five days, and received instruction in between from professional coaches and golfers, you would most certainly know what to do with your hips, be a better golfer, and likely not take until mid-round to regain execution.

I'm fine with trying different things with Morrow, with an eye towards finding a repeatable and effective delivery. It may take several iterations of delivery adjustments, keeping some things and adjusting others, before it hopefully clicks. Or perhaps he doesn't have the physical ability to be that consistent. But after starting 20 games in AAA, and 26 in the Majors, I think he deserves more time and instruction to see if he can get it on the fairway often enough.

rtcaino - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#215977) #

The Marlins are selling unused tickets to Halladay's perfect game.

I checked the website, but couldn't see them.

I would buy a single nosebleed. Put it beside by Pat Borders World Series MVP bobble head

Hodgie - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#215978) #

The funny thing about Morrow is, as bad as he has looked at times this year with a BB/9 of 5.37, his xFIP is 4.12 on the season. His ERA isn't being helped by a 23.6 LD% and his current .350 BABIP. I keep thinking AJ Burnett when I look at Morrow but that might not be a great comparable as even AJ didn't walk batters at this rate. Of course, he didn't strike them out quite to this tune either.

Magpie - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#215979) #

I think one of the things going on with Morrow (who I'm told is a fine and eminently coachable young man) is that no one in the organization really knows him yet. It was strange to see Shaun Marcum spot a problem with Morrow's mechanics a few starts back . As you may recall, Morrow was bending his right (plant) leg, a little like like David Cone, rather than standing up straight on it, and for Morrow, it turns out, this is a problem. But isn't that the pitching coach's job? Yes it is - but the pitching coach has been working with Morrow on his arm slot, and probably hasn't been looking that closely at his lower half.

I think it may simply take some time for the staff to figure out what works for this guy.

James W - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#215981) #

It was fairly easy to purchase. Go to marlins.com, click on their schedule, go back to May and you will see that May 29 has the green-T for purchasing tickets. Upper Deck B is the cheapest you'll find, I believe.

sam - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#215982) #

Haha, Baseball ADHD, well played

rtcaino - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#215983) #

Thanks James!

rpriske - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#215984) #

Dana Eveland traded to the Pirates.

From mlbtraderumors.com

12:36pm: The Pirates acquired Eveland from the Blue Jays for righty Ronald Uviedo, according to a press release. The 23-year-old Venezuelan has a 3.22 ERA, 11.3 K/9, and 4.8 BB/9 in 22.3 relief innings this year for the Double A Altoona Curve. Baseball America ranked Uviedo 18th among Pirates prospects heading into the '09 season. BA described him as rail-thin and homer-prone, but praised his fastball and slider.

westcoast dude - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#215985) #

I wonder if the Jose Molina mojo is part of Morrow's success, although generally John Buck is certainly doing a good job. The legendary Joe West was behind the dish calling balls and strikes with a postage stamp sized strike zone, making Morrow's performance that much more impressive. I though Kevin Gregg was fantastic closing it out under extreme duress. Crawford and Longoria are a nasty duo, especially with one of them on third base. Maybe it wasn't quite Hinskesque, but the bottom line is he bent but he didn't break. But the story of the night was Morrow's redemption. Four starters with future ace potential is a pleasant prospect.

binnister - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#215987) #

Slightly off topic, but I can't get into the Blue Jay Forum and the main site anymore. Does anyone know if it was shut down?

Moe - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#215988) #

Who did the Jays end up sending to the A's for Eveland?

rtcaino - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#215989) #

Solid pick up it seems.

Jays got Eveland for little to nothing, got a few starts out of him, allowed the pitching depth some more time to prepare for major league action, and ended up with a C/C- type prospect.

Depth and competition in the high minors is never a bad thing, and perhaps the Jays coaching and development staff (as well as the sometimes beneficial change of scenery) can help get a bit more out of this kid. His stuff looks good, as per high K/9 and low H/9. If he can keep the walks down, youneverknow.

Hopefully Eveland can find some success in the NL and carve out a nice career for himself. Word is that he will join the rotation.

brent - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#215991) #

MLBtraderumors said the Jays got Eveland for cash, but did not disclose the amount, FYI.

Christopher - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#215992) #

Slightly off topic, but I can't get into the Blue Jay Forum and the main site anymore. Does anyone know if it was shut down?

http://www.forums.mlb.com/ml-bluejays

There's a link to it on the bottom-right of the "Fans" page.

Cheers

uglyone - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#215993) #

Brandon Morrow's "New" Approach

Funny, I was thinking the same thing - every time he's given a new thing to do, it works like aces and he dominates. When asked to repeat it again, that's when he falls apart. Maybe we should just give him a "new" approach every time he takes the mound. I'm tempted to believe that he learned a lesson last night that took AJ Burnett about 7 more years to learn - relax and pitch to contact! - but I'm more than a bit skeptical about that.

Kevin Gregg and the Bullpen

You know, I was thinking today that despite the nervous ninth, that was still one helluva performance by Gregg. This is the best and hottest team in baseball so far this year we're up against, and by far the "clutchest" so far - and that clutch includes late inning comebacks. AND Gregg was up against their 3 best hitters, in a one run game, where they already had built a bit of momentum with a 2 run rally the inning before.

I thought Gregg was pretty awesome - the strikeout to Crawford to lead off the inning was unbelievable important and clutch. Not only to get their 2nd hottest hitter to strike out and look silly, and not only to keep that crazy dangerous speed off the basepaths, but also to keep the bases empty for the only one true fearsome hitter in the Rays' lineup right now, Evan Longoria. That was huge. just massive.

The "triple" that he gave up to Longoria was really a double, and Jose did some weird stuff to screw that up - but I don't mind Gregg giving up a hit to Longoria. And then pitching around Pena was the right thing to do. Even though he's sucked hard this year he's easily capable of shortening up and getting Longo in from 3rd with less than 2 out one way or another. And then Gregg got the last two to get themselves out pretty softly and easily, despite all the pressure.

Given the team we were playing, the situation he was in, and the part of the order he was up against....well, I think that was a pretty clutch job by Gregg. He went up a notch or two in my estimation last night, not down.

Now Downs, on the other hand......well, he'll never be my choice for closer, and I'll leave it at that.

Peter Warren - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#216003) #

I thought Gregg was pretty awesome - the strikeout to Crawford to lead off the inning was unbelievable important and clutch

That saved the game, no question. If Crawford gets on there, with his legs, the Rays likely tie that ballgame. I don't have the numbers, but it seems Gregg has done an outstanding job the first two months of getting the lead-off hitter in save situations; one of the keys to his success.

brent - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#216004) #

I think walking Pena to get to the weaker hitters was 100% the right call.

Anyway, thank goodness only Aaron Hill is on the home run derby list. I don't want Bautista screwing up his swing or something.

Alex Obal - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#216005) #

I was trying to think of who The New Kevin Gregg's pitching style reminds me of, and I'm drawing blanks. He is kind of distinctive. Running fastball at 92-93, cutter with often vicious movement *and* a velocity difference at 88 that gets a lot of swinging strikes. Occasionally, change and big slurve to keep LH and RH hitters respectively honest. Who else is good and pitches like that? Miguel Batista?

ayjackson - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#216009) #

Is tonight the night Niemann gets exposed? I was surprised to see his K/9 under 6 and his xFIP at 4.46. Hopefully we put a nice dent in his hr/fb ratio.

rtcaino - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#216013) #

and his RSIP avg...

of course, solo home runs aren't the worst way to put up 5 runs.

jmoney - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#216018) #

Gregg has completely melted down here. Jays could have made a big statement and Gregg walked it all away.

greenfrog - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#216019) #

Gregg is clearly better when he's had at least a day's rest. I was kind of hoping Cito had figured this out in Seattle--guess not.

Spifficus - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#216020) #

Is that really true. He's had 6 appearances where he's been scored on - 3 with rest, and 3 without. A lack of control seems to be more the issue than usage. These games are going to happen... they suck when they do, but they're inevitable over 162.

Gerry - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#216021) #

I have heard Cito and Jerry Howarth discussing Gregg's struggles on back to back days so Cito knows the situation.

Once Cito decided to bring in Gregg he knew he was rolling the dice. I would like to know why did he do it? Was it because Gregg is his closer and the closer goes for the save? Does he have no faith in Downs? Is it because the Rays were bringing up Upton and Longoria and he wanted a right hander?

Why Cito, why?

Gerry - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#216022) #

It looks like Tallet will get another start based on his good work tonight. Also Jesse Litsch has caught PCL fever. Litsch has given up 8 runs in 2 innings so far tonight. The combined AAA ERA of Tallet, Litsch and Rzepczynski must be 20 plus.

Of course given how Tallet pitched tonight maybe all three would be lights out in the majors.

ayjackson - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#216023) #

The sooner we end our affilitation with Vegas the better.

Spifficus - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#216024) #

I have heard Cito and Jerry Howarth discussing Gregg's struggles on back to back days so Cito knows the situation.

That's odd. Prior to tonight, he had only appeared in 5 outings with no rest. 3 were scoreless, 1 run in another, and the Seattle meltdown in the other. That's not enough for any sort of pattern. Was he mentioning a breakdown in command or stuff?

greenfrog - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#216025) #

It's hard to criticize Cito, because the team has been performing so well. I didn't like the decision to use Gregg tonight, but I thought leaving him in for so long was like throwing good money after bad. 40 pitches? Five walks? The day after another high-leverage inning against the Rays? That's just messed, especially after exactly the same thing happened in Seattle a couple of weeks ago. The weird thing is that Cito quickly pulled Tallet, Janssen and Frasor tonight as soon as they started flagging. I guess Gregg is (or was) in a special category.

greenfrog - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#216026) #

Spifficus, the other point that Howarth and Ashby made in Seattle was that prior to the loss, Gregg had started flagging in recent outings and might have been tiring in general (not just as a result of pitching back-to-back games). Nonetheless, Cito ramped up his usage by leaving him in for a long, painful, walk-filled loss against the M's, despite it being clear (to the radio announcers, anyway) that he didn't have it. Tonight was basically a repeat performance. So it may be that Gregg is more effective when used selectively, and that the Jays would do better with more of a bullpen-by-committee approach (even if Gregg is the closer in most save situations).

the shadow - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#216027) #

I'm 91 and to-night there was a miracle, I saw the return of Joey McLaughlin

Gerry - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#216028) #

I believe from Jerry/Cito that both of Gregg's previous blown saves were on back to back days. Tonight would make three. In other words Gregg should not have a blown save this season when he comes in with at least one days rest.

Spifficus - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 11:48 PM EDT (#216029) #

The more general overuse greenfrog brings up makes sense (he's been used 4 of the past 5 days), but he's never had a back-to-back game issue in the past. Looking over his splits, he's actually been better on 0 days rest throughout his career. I think some of this is still sample-size-related.

I wish my video feed wasn't chunking so much in the 9th - I'd like to have seen how wild he was, or if there was any lack of stuff-ness. It didn't sound like he was throwing poorly, but that's always hard to say.

Denoit - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 11:57 PM EDT (#216030) #

Trystan Magnuson anyone?

TamRa - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#216031) #

Gregg has completely melted down here. Jays could have made a big statement and Gregg walked it all away.

Gregg aside, I'm of the opinion that if the "best team in baseball" needs five ninth inning walks to win, you DID make a big statement.

rtcaino - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 12:33 AM EDT (#216032) #

I felt Gregg was squeezed a couple of times. This comment comes 2 hours or so after I almost disowned baseball because of this loss, so I am no apologist. Perhaps Madden's hissy fit worked?

However, the Pena at bat was fortunate. The second strike, (I believe it was the second,) looked like a ball. Myself and the 2 people watching in the room each felt so. Then the third strike basically amounted to warm up pitch, with Pena trying to call time. It was a very late time call, but that outcome was not due to Gregg's skill. Good thing he at least through a strike!

martinthegreat - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 01:04 AM EDT (#216033) #

I don't understand how we could blame Cito. As people have indicated, the rest factor is a moot point. 4/5 games pitched is within acceptable parameters I think (though I'd expect he rest tomorrow and maybe the next day).

stevieboy22 - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 01:30 AM EDT (#216034) #

The ump wasn't calling the outside strike all game, and Gregg kept going back there... I'm not a fan of Gregg, but I actually thought he had good stuff tonight... And really, he was one close call away from saving the game..

I'm hoping Downs finally gets his chance to close, because he probably deserves it.

Even though the Jays lost tonight, I still got a good vibe... They might be able to hang around until September, as Dan Shulman said yesterday, "this team a lot better than anyone thought."

92-93 - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 01:55 AM EDT (#216035) #

I don't understand how we could blame Cito.

Let me help -

1. It was Gregg's 4th time in 5 days. That in itself isn't a big deal, but when the guy has reached 33 pitches and walked FOUR guys, it's time to pull him, especially when we've seen this horror show very recently.

2. Kevin Gregg isn't Mariano Rivera, or in otherwords someone who must be The Guy. He's been a very mediocre pitcher the last few years, and has been atrocious since his early season dominance. Heading into tonight he had 9.1ip 13h 7er 8bb 9k 2hr in the last 10 games. The team shouldn't need to win or lose with him in the 9th automatically, and Jason Frasor got hooked from his job after much less suckage, so I don't understand this marriage to Gregg as The Guy.

3. If Clarence doesn't trust Lewis & Purcey he has to leave himself some other options. That would mean not burning through relievers who have recorded 3 outs on 6 pitches, as Shawn Camp had. There was no reason to remove him for Downs in a 2 run game with 2 outs and nobody on in the 8th, and had Clarence let Camp attempt to finish the inning it's likely Downs is available in the 9th after Gregg's fourth walk. Even if Camp puts a runner on you have a guy on deck in Upton who is much better vs. LHP, so you probably shouldn't even go to Downs there. With Crawford and Pena around the corner in the 9th and a closer whose pitched 3 of the last 4 days it would have been nice if Downs was available in case of emergency.

That was one helluva performance from Brian Tallet, in his typical fashion - nothing special but he grinds and manages to get through the game. I'd keep him in the rotation and leave Litsch & Rzepczysnki down there to wait for an injury while getting back to full speed from their own problems. If one of them rips off a few very nice starts in a row then you can consider improving your bullpen by shifting Tallet back there.

Chuck - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 07:29 AM EDT (#216036) #

I felt Gregg was squeezed a couple of times.

Squeezed being, of course, a euphemism for balls not being called strikes.

Mike D - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#216038) #

Sadly, Chuck's sarcasm is supported by Pitch F/X. According to it, the only clear strike wrongly called a ball happened during the Upton at-bat which ended in a strikeout anyway. Ball 1 to Navarro was right at the knees and could have been called a strike as well, but the damage was done by then.

Many of Gregg's other pitches were close, but off the plate per Pitch F/X.

mathesond - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#216039) #

I saw the return of Joey McLaughlin

Yikes! I thought I had buried those memories...
(but really, great line, shadow)

rpriske - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#216040) #

Bill James has a fatigue # 'stat' for closers. His numbers show that the more fatigued a closer is, the less effective they will be (groundbreaking stuff, I know). Gregg is currently the most fatigued closer. By far.

John Northey - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#216042) #

I've got a feeling that last nights game was Cito's way of sending a strong message to Gregg and to a few others. Gregg clearly didn't have it, he clearly was having issues but still had a chance to finish it but didn't.

I suspect Gregg (and maybe some others) have complained that they weren't given a chance or something, that given time they'd work out of their problems. Perhaps Gregg claimed to be 100% when he really was 50%. I could easily see Cito writing off the game at that point to force Gregg to learn 'when you are asked something, response truthfully or else'.

I say this because Cito is known for doing that. Back in the early 90's he did that to David Wells, he would also do it to other guys as I recall. The idea being that he had to know if the player could pull it out anyways, and to teach them a lesson by screwing up their personal stats. Then, if the team is still fighting for it late in the season he knows what the limits are for each guy and each guy knows to tell Cito the truth.

Or he might have just been taking a nap :)

John Northey - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#216043) #

Just was at Baseball Prospectus and saw the pitching matchups for the Yankee series and was a bit surprised...

WARP figures ....
Friday: AJ Burnett (0.3) vs Cecil (0.9)
Saturday: Pettitte (2.0) vs Romero (2.5)
Sunday: Vazquez (-1.3) vs Morrow (-0.7)

The Jays actually have the pitching advantage (based on WARP) for all 3 games. Who'd have thunk?

Btw, the PECOTA adjusted playoff forecast (normally the most down on the Jays) has the Jays at 11.69599% odds of making the playoffs now which is the highest it has been all season. Somehow it grew by 4 points despite the loss last night - guess due to the good outing by Tallet or something. Their basic method has the Jays at 22.7%, and the ELO method has them at 27.98%

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#216044) #

I have a rule of thumb for a closer. If he cannot throw a 3-0 strike with a 2 run lead and nobody on in the ninth, you either have overworked/underworked him or he's not fit for the job.

Fangraphs tells us that over the season, Gregg has thrown 36% of his pitches in the zone, which of course is much less than league average. He does attract more swings on pitches outside the zone than average, but there is obviously a limit to this approach. The charitable view is that Cito made a mistake in using him yesterday. The other side is that 15 walks in 24 innings is not going to work, and that this is not really an accident. My impression (for what that's worth) is that over the season Gregg has (if anything) benefited from a broader strike zone than other Jay pitchers.

Cito prefers defined roles in the bullpen, but it is probably time for him to change the roles. Gregg is not Tom Henke and none of Downs/Camp/Janssen/Frasor are Duane Ward, but some kind of unequal sharing of the save opportunities needs to be worked on so that Gregg is not handed the ball when he's tired.

Matthew E - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#216045) #

I can't get too worked up about this loss. Frustrating, obviously, but look at the Jays' bullpen. It's not a championship-caliber bullpen, and therefore you're going to get games like this every now and then. It's unavoidable. And the Jays shouldn't have a championship-caliber bullpen! This team is not ready to go for all the marbles, nor will they be ready to do that for a few years now at the absolute least. They've got an unusually inexperienced (although talented!) starting rotation, an inconsistent defence, and hitters who have a real hard time getting on base. The bullpen is the last thing to fix, not the first, so you have to just shrug your shoulders and go get 'em tomorrow.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#216046) #

Personally, I am not worked up at all about the loss. If Crawford and Longoria had singled and Jaso had hit a 3 run homer, I wouldn't have much to say about it. Blown saves are going to happen. Not being able to throw a 3-0 strike in the ninth with a 2 run lead is another.

The crowds will stay small if there is a feeling that the team is throwing in the towel.

92-93 - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#216047) #

and therefore you're going to get games like this every now and then. It's unavoidable.

The way last night's loss went down was very avoidable.

The August & September crowds are going to make the record-setting ones in April look huge if this team throws in the towel post AS break.

Matthew E - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#216049) #

Although it sure didn't look like they were throwing in the towel last night. I mean, I've seen lots of games where it looked like the Jays weren't trying. Last night's game was not one of them. Gregg just couldn't get it to work, that's all.

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#216050) #

Gregg was certainly trying. If Cito's response to Gregg's lack of control yesterday is "I can't do anything about it", that would be throwing in the towel.

Cito has done a good job so far this year, in my view. I'd like him to leave on a good note.

bpoz - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#216051) #

I like the psychological aspect of John Northey's comment about Cito sending a message to Gregg and others to reply honestly when asked something. Yesterday he used everyone except Purcey from his pen which I thought was unusual for him. By the way I like Cito as a manager, so I probably will rationalize positively regarding his decisions. He has his own managing style but I find a lot of consistency in his style. In the 90's I believe he had 4SP and a 5 man pen. The pen was Henke & Ward then 3 of Wells/Acker/Eichorn/Timlin and a few others (no Henke in 93). My point regarding that pen is that those guys were very good and they all had specific roles SO there were few if any decisions to be made. If the starter goes 6 innings then 2 for Ward and 1 for Henke. If 7 then 1 for Ward. Todays pen is 7 men rather than 5 and these guys are not as good, so we are getting changing roles and very much 2nd guessing. Somebodies have said that we will probably drop out of the race so "just enjoy it". I am taking that advice and am enjoying the Jays, Cito and the "2010 unsure philosophy of contending or building, are we there yet or not yet with the beasts of the East,and other what is right or wrong with SP,Pen,Offense and defence etc..." A very large part of my enjoyment is reading your opinions. Thank you. Before the season I did not think we would be HERE (sorry Cito) so for me this is a gift I am appreciating. I hoped for enough individual successes that they could be traded for future assets. So far that looks good but is trading plan A or B.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#216053) #

Honestly, I'm not angry at Gregg or Cito.

Gregg is the only reliever I trust against this rays team.

I'm angry at Downs, Frasor, and Janssen for turning into pumpkins every time we play the Rays

I certainly don't blame Cito for going with Gregg there.....and I definitely don't blame him for staying with him even with 4 walks......there's noone else I'd rather have seen facing Rodriguez in that situation, other than Lewis.

And I'm not angry at Gregg either - he was tired, but fighting for every inch out there, and came up one pitch short in the end.

What I wouldn't mind seeing out of all this is Rommie Lewis getting a more prominent role in the 'pen. This guy has impressed the hell out of me, both with his stuff and his compsure out there. I've said it before....I see some legit Closer potential in Rommie.

And I'll take this moment to remind everyone that the Blue Jays currently lead the AL in Saves, and are 4th in AL in Save Percentage.

92-93 - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#216054) #

uglyone, do you also not blame Clarence for removing Camp after he's gotten 3 outs on 6 pitches in a 2 run game with 2 outs and nobody on and a righty who destroys LHP on deck? Because that's the point everyone keeps conveniently skipping. If he doesn't burn Downs there for no reason he could have brought him into the horror show of the 9th.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#216055) #

actually, that's the one thing that did raise my eyebrows.

Funny, for a manager criticizied for not going to matchups enough with his bullpen, and leaving guys in too long, he OVERdid it this time.

I would have kept Tallet in to finish the 6th, then tried to get Camp to go the 7th and 8th. Then we probably wouldn't have been in a save situation at all.

John Northey - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#216056) #

An item of note...
Jays TV ratings up

It appears that 300-500k viewers are showing up for Jay games now. For comparison I found an article for this year on Tampa which shows record viewership for them at 94k households. Even if 3 people in each house was watching (unlikely) you'd be below the Jays current low viewership level.

I can't find the figures from 2009 (they were printed somewhere and BBTF had a thread on it but darned if I can find it now) but as I recall 500k viewers would've been a very high figure. Thus the Jays are in good fiscal shape even with 30-40k empty seats, at least as far as value to the Rogers empire.

TamRa - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#216057) #

hijacked from Twitter:

Against every team other than the Rays, Jays relievers have posted an ERA of 3.25. Include them and it's 4.18. 16.88 against just them.

uglyone - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#216058) #

I believe that was originally hijacked from a gamethread I posted in last night, so don't feel too bad for stealing it again.

subculture - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#216059) #

Not to worry fans, it was my bad for not anticipating last night's bullpen meltdown.

--------------------

Tonight in the finale, the Rays will continue to dominate the Jays bullpen, and David Price is 'right' against the 'no not a lefty!' Jays lineup.

- Xnij

subculture - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#216060) #

Anyone else notice that in the 6-5 loss against the Angels, that the Jays could have been out of the inning if John Buck had thrown to 3rd base - instead of 1st base, after Alex Gonzales' miracle throw to home?

The bases were loaded, and the runner on 2nd-base (I believe Juan Rivera) did not break on the sharp grounder to AG. He seemed to forget that it was a force play, and was still only halfway to 3rd when Buck threw to first unsuccessfully. Edwin Encarnacion was standing on 3rd base ready to receive the ball, but it looked like he didn't yell or motion to Buck, which would have ended the inning. Instead Abreu gets a chance to redeem himself and wins the game.

I'm not implying that Buck or anyone else screwed up, but it was a chance to make a great play (by AG) into a ridiculously fantastic play.

The commentators didn't mention it either, but the replays were quite conclusive.

-------

Another note: is Fred Lewis the 2nd coming of Alex Rios, for Blue Jay fans? Talented, fast, surprising power, but prone to mental gaffes? I do like what he's brought to the Jays (filling a huge void), but hope his mental game doesn't shorten his stay here or his effectiveness.

dan gordon - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#216061) #

Was at the game last night. When Cito took Camp out of the game, I said to my friend that he made a mistake. Gregg had pitched a lot lately, and was likely to struggle. He could leave Camp in to pitch to the #9 hitter, and then to Upton. Bring Downs in to face Crawford, Longoria and Pena. Gregg in reserve if needed, or after Pena if the game is not yet complete. By burning through Camp and Downs so quickly, Cito painted himself into a corner where the only reliever he had that he was willing to use in the 9th was a tired Gregg. No fall back position. I couold smell that 9th inning meltdown coming as soon as both Camp and Downs were burned. Gregg was facing the top of the order, too. Very disappointing.

On the bright side, what a great job by Tallet. I figured he'd get tonged, and was very happy to be proven wrong. Where did he pull that game out from?

dan gordon - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#216062) #

Oh, yes, Gregg's stats for his last 11 appearances - 10 innings, 14 hits, 13 walks, ERA 9.90, WHIP 2.70, opponents' BA .359, opponents' OPS 1.125

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#216063) #

Brignac has huge platoon splits so far, and so bringing in Downs after Camp had thrown an inning was reasonable. Downs had thrown 7 pitches the day before yesterday and before that had not worked in 4 days. After getting Brignac, it would have been fine to leave Downs in to pitch the ninth against Upton, Crawford, Longoria and Pena.

The problem was the definition of roles in the pen. Gregg is the closer, and therefore he gets the save opportunity in the ninth notwithstanding that he'd sweated it the night before and looked tired.

John Northey - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#216065) #

Ick, those stats for Gregg over his last 10 innings are uuuuugly.

Splitting Gregg's season into 2 we get...
12 games: 13 IP 7 H 2 BB 16 SO 1 run allowed, never more than 2 days in a row (twice)

12 games: 11 IP 15 H 13 BB 13 SO 11 runs allowed, never more than 2 days in a row (3 times)

Yesterday was his 4th game in 5 days. He did this before from May 3rd to 7th but had a full inning each time during that stretch and allowed just 1 run over 4 IP.

The back to back doesn't seem to be the 'magic bullet' nor does the 4 games in 5 days. He hasn't given up more than 3 hits in a game, and last night was his only time giving up more than 2 walks. This was very similar to his May 20th game as that time he allowed 5 baserunners and 3 runs.

As others have said, it was just one of those games. Ideally he'd have been pulled but I do wonder if a lesson/message was being sent. We probably will never know, but the next few games will tell us a lot.

Chuck - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#216068) #

It was Molina, not Buck. It was discussed a fair amount on Wilner's post-game show.

A catcher's instincts would have him looking to complete the DP at first base, the presumption being that the other runners wouldn't dally as Rivera had done. To add to the calculus a scan of the other baserunners while also concentrating on receiving Gonzalez's miracle throw might have been too much to ask for (and I acknowledge that you weren't asking for it).

vw_fan17 - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#216077) #

Another way to look at it: if Overbay's and Wells' doubles off the wall are each about 3-5 feet further, the Jays win... (and add 2 more HRs)

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#216080) #

The Rays have tilted their lineup to right-handed hitters, presumably in recognition of Marcum's severe reverse platoon splits and repertoire changes so far this season (anagram noted).

jmoney - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#216083) #

I haven't been watching the game too closely. Whose fault is this 9th inning debacle?

James W - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#216085) #

Blame the Rays. They've got good hitters. I agree with the decision to give Marcum a shot, especially since there's not really anyone to trust in the pen.

jmoney - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#216086) #

No kidding. Grand slam. Ouch.

Ski - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#216087) #

This is getting ridiculous. So much for playing with the big boys.

John Northey - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#216089) #

So, think Tom Henke can be talked out of retirement?

ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, June 02 2010 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#216091) #

haven't been watching the game too closely. Whose fault is this 9th inning debacle?

I think you have to wait to see how the game ends, and then see from 92-93 what he would have done instead. There were obviously a whole bunch of options, such as:
1. Take out Marcum (check first for a Keith Law tweet), to bring in the Jays' lockdown bullpen, or;
2. Once the jays had the lead, Overbay should have been taken out of the game to bring in Randy (Japandy) Ruiz, or:
3. Take Wells out of the cleanup spot where he doesn't really belong, or; 4. Pinch run for someone when they're not in scoring position, or; 5. Take Jose Bautista out of the lineup where he doesn't belong because Randy Ruiz obviously does, and we've seen Bautista for 10 years even though he has 4 years of service (ooops, sorry, that's Mike Wilner), or; 6. Use Frasor instead of Gregg (oops, Frasor coughed up runs at will, not good second-guessing), I meant use Camp and then Downs because Camp only threw 6 pitches and another inning will go swimmingly for sure and you'll be sure to be able to use him tomorrow anyway, and Downs has been Mr. Sandman vs. the Rays, like the night before).

Should be obvious. We'll wait for it.

92-93 - Thursday, June 03 2010 @ 01:09 AM EDT (#216095) #

Clarence managed this game perfectly. It's not his fault Bautista and Vernon make outs on the basepaths for no reason, and it's not his fault the ball got stuck in Overbay's glove, and it's not his fault Scott Downs got crushed by Carl Crawford. He also didn't strand runners all night. It would have been crazy for him to remove Marcum from the game in the low 90s, and even if you wanted Marcum removed with Brignac coming to the plate it's hard to blame the manager for sticking with a guy who has been throwing that well all night when his bullpen didn't do him any favours the previous night. I do wish he'd entertain the idea of making a defensive substitution in the 9th with Jose Molina against a team that runs wild like the Rays though.

Evan Longoria is really something else, and Carl Crawford showed fantastic range on that ball of EE's bat. It's easy to see why the Rays pitching staff is having such a great year.

After another blown call in the Mariners game, the media uproar over the umpiring is going to be a fun follow.

TamRa - Thursday, June 03 2010 @ 02:05 AM EDT (#216098) #

So much for playing with the big boys.

IMHO, we DID play with the big boys. Going into the top of the ninth with the lead in all three games against the Rays is good work.

This just frustrates me because it (anecdotealy) seems like these "luck" or "flukey" or "surprisingly good" (ever how you want to turn the phrase) chain of events happen for the Rays an awful lot, particularly against the Jays.

I understand that when it's Longoria or Crawford, but not so much when it's others.

Still, as much as tonight sucks (and it sucks far worse, IMO, than last night) I still am impressed, overall, with the way they played the Rays both this series and the last one.

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