There are two main sources for the draft, Jim Callis at Baseball America and Keith Law at ESPN.
Callis does have a mock draft up but I don't agree with his logic. His logic goes as follows: the Jays have money to spend; Austin Wilson is looking for big money; therefore the Jays will take an expensive player like Wilson. Others think Wilson isn't even worth a number 10 pick. Callis, like many other "experts" see the Jays as liking Michael Choice but he might be gone when the Jays pick.
Here is what Keith Law has to say to support his selection of high school pitcher Dylan Covey for the Jays:
The Blue Jays are suddenly open for business in the high school arm market, and they're in on Whitson, Covey and Aaron Sanchez, but I think Choice may trump them all if he reaches here.
Keith, in his blog, also notes that this years draft has a lot of very equal talent so that the higher pickers don't want to pay what it will take for what in their eyes is mediocre talent.
Like we wrote last week, this year's first round is going to be nuts. We're going to see a lot of players drop out of the first round as clubs punt on this year's class or value the chance at a quicker return more than a risky, upside play. Our comedian impressionist put his own skin back on to opine on the scenarios that could play out:
"I just think everyone is under the gun so much more now," he said. "If we screw up more than once, we're probably out of a job, and our boss (the scouting director) is probably on thin ice, too. We're in a 'can't-miss' era right now, especially when the upside with some of these players isn't as high as it has been, and the risk may be even greater.
"I understand the philosophy on the other side of it, but most organizations can't afford to keep taking big chances and not getting anything out of it. I think the bigger market teams will take those chances and that's about it.
"I'm hearing that an inordinate amount of clubs are considering going slot only in the first round so they can bulk up the later rounds where the value may be."
That last sentence could be key to this year's draft. If first-round talents are passed on, the value will be in the compensatory and second rounds, without a doubt.
"I definitely see that happening. It's not a good year for players to ask for big money. They aren't going to get it, and will slide down in the draft and still not get it."
Plase post any updates in this thread.
