Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Week 8: Batters in Scoring Position

Base runners? Base runners?

We don't need no stinking base runners....

Like I always say, if chicks dig the long ball that's definitely good enough for me.

The team record for homers in a season is the 244 hit by Jim Fregosi's 2000 team. Let's see how those guys did it...

Catcher: Darren Fletcher (20). I doubt John Buck will match that, but he could come within a few. The 2010 team is down a few.

First Base: Carlos Delgado (41). Obviously, there is no way Overbay-Wallace will do this... By now the 2010 team is down by... let's say 25.

Second Base: Homer Bush (1). Aaron Hill has this covered, no? In fact, I'd say he makes up the entire deficit between this year's model and Fregosi's Boys.

Third Base: Tony Batista (41). I don't think Edwin Encarnacion can do this. (Of course, I didn't think Tony Batista could do this either.) I'm saying the 2010 team is down by 20, again.

Shortstop: Alex (the Pretty One) Gonzalez (15). AG Mark II is almost there already, and I can see him finishing up with 20 to 25. So let's cut the deficit to....let's say 12.

Right Field: Raul Mondesi (24). The Brown Buffalo's season ended soon after the All-Star Break. Travis Snider might be able to match this total, but let's not count on it. We'll bump the deficit back up to 15.

Centre Field: Jose Cruz (31). I'd say Vernon is right on track. No change.

Left Field: Shannon Stewart (21). If Fred Lewis hits 21 homers, it'll be as surprising as... well, Shannon Stewart hitting 21 homers. Boost the deficit back up to 25.

Designated Hitter: Brad Fullmer (32). Which is where we all figured Adam Lind ought to wind up. Well, maybe that's not going to happen. He should still be good for at least 25 of them, anyway. Deficit goes up to 30...

The Bench: Everybody else on the 2000 team combined for just 18 homers, led by the Immortal Todd Greene who had 5. The 2010 team can match that right now, thanks mainly to the 16 already banged out by the Amazing Jose Bautista. He's not actually a bench player, of course. He's the Rover! But really, I see no reason Joey Bats can't hit another 15 of them. Other bench guys - Molina, the fourth outfielders, whoever - may add another 5. Which still leaves the 2010 team about 10 short...

Moving along. The team came through that nasty 23 game stretch I was so worried about in pretty decent shape. I would have settled for 10-13. Instead they went 14-9, and celebrated by sweeping the Always Hapless Orioles. Does anyone else remember when the Orioles were universally regarded as baseball's model organization? You young ones are gasping in disbelief right now, aren't you. But it's true, they really were...

And now another Tough Stretch looms...

That would be the rest of the current home stand, which consists of six games with the Beasts of the East (the Certainly-Beastly-This-Year Devil Fishies and the Always Beastly Yankees.) After that comes a nine game road trip, which begins in Tampa Bay and then moves on to a couple of NL parks, Coors and Petco. That's right - the Jays will visit, in succession, the greatest hitter's park in the history of the game (although in truth the humidor has done a great deal to make that phenomena a thing of the past) and the worst hitter's park in the history of the game.

If that doesn't confuse our boys, nothing will...

Yes, it's another tough stretch ahead. I hope they can go 6-9....

Posted by Magpie on Monday, May 31 2010 @ 05:00 AM EDT.

Week 8: Batters in Scoring Position | 81 comments | Create New Account

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China fan - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 06:34 AM EDT (#215841) #

(I'm reposting this from an older thread, just to see if it stirs up any discussion on lineup composition or misleading injury reports....)

In other news, MLB.com is providing the most misleading headline of the day: "Snider not quite ready to come off DL." Not quite ready?? In reality, it could be several weeks before he returns. If you read deeper into the story, you discover that Snider will be "re-evaluated" on Monday. If he passes that test, he's allowed to do swinging exercises and hitting off a tee. If he passes that, he'll be allowed into extended spring training. If that goes okay, he'll be assigned to Dunedin. Presumably from there he would then get a turn in Vegas as well, although the story doesn't specify. Anyway, each of those steps could take days or weeks. As far as I can figure out, it might be late June before we see Snider in a Jays game. Or even July.

On a positive note, the Jays don't seem to need Snider's power bat at this point anyway.... They're within 5 home runs of the all-time record for homers in a month....

scottt - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 06:41 AM EDT (#215842) #

The Jays have set a franchise record for the most home runs in a month and Bautista has tied the franchise mark for most home run in a month with 12.

So without looking, what other two Blue Jays have hit 12 in a month?

James W - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#215846) #

If you're talking Blue Jay home run records, you'd have to guess Carlos Delgado and George Bell.

Mike Green - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#215847) #

If you had told me at the start of the season that the Jays would have the best pitching in the league as of May 30, I would have laughed. But they do. OK, the Rays do have a better team ERA, but a lot of that is due to better team defence.

85bluejay - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#215849) #

I am really impressed with the approach AA & comp. are taking - a conservative approach both for players returning

from injuries and in promoting players ( opposite of JP) - sorta the Tampa approach - in fact. I'm impressed with

most of what AA is doing (the 2yr deal for Mac. aside)

85bluejay - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#215850) #

Mike,

If the Jays are near the top of pitching after the next 24 games, then I will really be impressed ( of course,

it's still a feather in their cap at this stage)

China fan - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#215851) #

Those are fascinating stats, Mike. Thanks for the link. The other great thing about the Jays pitching is that it should be easy to improve it further. It's almost the ideal situation: 3 pitchers have been superb (and quite consistent, therefore unlikely to decline much), which allows the Jays to focus on upgrading the other 2 slots in the rotation. And both of those slots should be easy to fix. Morrow will either improve or will eventually be dumped into the bullpen -- the Jays clearly won't tolerate a 6.66 ERA in the 4th slot for the entire season. Eveland's poor numbers should also be easy to upgrade on. With the depth that the Jays have -- Litsch, Zep, Mills, Tallet etc -- it shouldn't be hard to find a way of improving on those Morrow/Eveland numbers, if Morrow cannot do it himself. And if somehow Litsch/Mills/Zep cannot do the job, there are other options, or Anthopolous can go out and acquire one. The Jays now have a very clear sense of two things: the 3 keepers at the top of the rotation, and the sinkholes at the bottom of the rotation, so they can zero in and fix them. That's big progress from last year.

uglyone - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#215854) #

If you had told me at the start of the season that the Jays would have the best pitching in the league as of May 30, I would have laughed. But they do. OK, the Rays do have a better team ERA, but a lot of that is due to better team defence.

It always struck me as strange how easily people dismissed the longerm career threatening injuries to Marcum, Litsch, McGowan, Janssen (not to mention BJ) when discussing how "good" our pitching talent level has been the past few years, and even how good our overall level of young talent and drafted talent has been.

Our GM was actually criticized for putting together this pitching staff at a very reasonable price:

R.Halladay
S.Marcum
A.J.Burnett
D.McGowan
J.Litsch / D.Purcey

CL B.J.Ryan
SU S.Downs
SU J.Frasor
LR B.Tallet
LR S.Camp
MR B.League / J.Accardo
MR J.Carlson / J.Parrish

While having talent like Romero, Cecil, Rzepczynski on their way up.

Coming into this year, all anyone could think of was losing Halladay, while somehow the fact that we were adding Marcum, Morrow, and Litsch, and the fact that Romero, Cecil, and Rzep were no longer raw rookies, and the fact that we had one of the better bullpens around the past couple of years, were all ignored.

Look at our starters and their career starting numbers right now:

S.Marcum (28yrs, 3rd Rnd): 435.2ip, 7.0k/9, 2.5k/bb, 1.21whip, 3.64era
J.Litsch (25yrs, 24th Rnd): 293.0ip, 4.7k/9, 2.0k/bb, 1.29whip, 3.81era
R.Romero (25yrs, 1st Rnd): 255.1ip, 7.8k/9, 2.0k/bb, 1.43whip, 3.95era
B.Cecil (23yrs, 1st Rnd): 142.1ip, 6.9k/9, 2.2k/bb, 1.44whip, 4.81era
M.Rzepczynski (24yrs, 5th Rnd): 61.1ip, 8.8k/9, 2.0k/bb, 1.32whip, 3.67era
B.Morrow (25yrs, 1st Rnd): 129.1ip, 9.5k/9, 1.7k/bb, 1.56whip, 5.29era

Followed by an excellent group of starting prospects in Drabek, Stewart, Jenkins, Alvarez, Mills.

Where other teams would be talking their great collection of young starting pitching talent - arguably neck and neck with the Rays for best in baseball - we've been convinced that our starting pitching is a black hole.

Dave Till - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#215858) #

Marcum has picked up exactly where he left off, and is now a top-class starter. He could easily have had location or velocity issues coming back from his injury.
Romero has taken a step forward. Many people were predicting a regression: his ERA got worse as the season went on last year, which might have meant that the league was adjusting to Romero. Instead, Romero has adjusted to the league. (By the way: can everybody put the whole Tulowitzki versus Romero issue behind them now? Tulo might have been a better pick, but it's now like comparing an A grade to an A- rather than an A to a D or F. I'm not sure that Anthopoulous would trade Romero for Tulowitzki right now, if given the chance - would you?)
Cecil has taken many steps forward. He could have gone into Unproven Pitcher Limbo, or could have required surgery or something.
Gregg has been better than expected - he was widely predicted to be a waste of money.
Downs and Frasor haven't changed much.
The back end of the bullpen has been serviceable.

It's not hard to envision a scenario in which none of these things happened - in which case, the Jays would be closer to where Baltimore is now. The only disappointments have been Morrow (who has been inconsistent) and Eveland (if he had been better, Oakland would have kept him). So it's like flipping a coin and having it land "heads" 6 out of 8 times. It's well within the realm of possibility, but it's luckier than average.

China fan - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#215861) #

Dave, you seem to be suggesting that the Jays are "luckier than average" just because the gloomy predictions were mostly wrong. Isn't it more likely that the Jays were shrewd in their acquisitions and the pessimistic prognosticators were just flat-out wrong? The conventional wisdom on Da Box, for example, had Romero as a bad draft pick, Gregg as a useless acquisition, Wells as a lost cause, Bautista as a utility back-up player, etc. If those predictions were mostly wrong, it doesn't mean that the Jays were "luckier than average" -- it could mean that the Jays management is a lot smarter than the off-the-cuff predictions on Da Box.

Mike Green - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#215862) #

I don't know if I would say "luckier". Luck is certainly a part of it, but if this continues, we might be saying that Bruce Walton is a pretty good pitching coach in a couple of years.

Kyle Drabek now has had 24 AA starts. I have never taken the view that a player must pass through triple A, but with the promotion of Diaz to triple A, maybe Drabek will follow. He is nearing the point when a promotion to the Show would not be out of the question. If the club is in contention at the end of June and Morrow is still struggling, it would make sense to me.

Mike Green - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#215863) #

CF, the Jay pitching so far has not only exceeded (by a mile) the expectations of Bauxites, but also any neutral projections out there. We'll see how they fare in Yankee Stadium.

uglyone - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#215864) #

To be fair, it was not clear that the Jays' pitching staff would turn out as well as it has so far.

There's a few things that I find interesting here.

1) Most any objective statistical breakdown of our pitching staff heading into this year had them at least on par with (but usually slightly better than) last year's staff - and last year's staff was actually decent. I know personally, any way I broke down the numbers - whether they were actual numbers or using any of the projection systems out there - had us not losing much if anything from last year. But even then, all the commentators chose to ignore this in the light of the "oh my god they lost Halladay" sentiment.

2) Our staff was made up of guys with at least either great talent and draft postion (Romero, Cecil, Morrow) or great minor and major league track record (Marcum, Litsch, Rzepczynski), and both in most cases (Litsch being the only one with a low draft position, and Romero being the only one with a really spotty minor league track record) - the type of kids that are usually looked at as expected to improve, not regress. Yet for some reason the vast majority of commentators felt that it was emininently 'reasonable" to project regression from EVERY SINGLE JAYS' STARTER - for some reason or another. For Marcum it was injury, for Ricky it was fading at the end of his rookie year, for Litsch it was injury and K-rate, for Morrow, Cecil, and Rzep it was.....well, I don't really know what it was for them, but for some reason the "objective" viewpoint was that we couldn't count on any improvements from them. FOR EVERY SINGLE STARTER, the accepted wisdom was that not one single one could be expected to improve on previous performance, and that most if not all would regress.

In isolation, I guess, it's fine to be skeptical about counting on contributions from kids.......but when you look around, and everyone is predicting greatness for Baltimore based on Matusz and Tillman, and for Tampa based on Niemann, Price, and Davis, and Boston based on Lester and Buchholz and Bowden......well, it's kind of frustrating when you see Jays' youngsters with similar pedigrees, track records, and recent performance just get entirely dismissed for no real reason.

3) And now people are insinuating that the Jays' are somehow getting fortunate - even though Rzep and Litsch have been injured all year, and Morrow has been by the numbers the unluckiest pitcher in baseball this year (with even our good 3 starters apparently being unlucky by the numbers as well). This after years where we received more BAD luck than any team in baseball on this front.

If we look objectively at what's happened with our starters this year individually, it's hard to portray them as significantly fortunate:

Marcum - came back from TJ without missing a beat. Really not very uncommon - nowadays, most pitchers come back from TJ at a level similar to what they were before.
Romero - an elite young arm that has taken a step forward in consistency and stamina in his 2nd year in the league (though not in top-end performance, as he showed this kind of top-end ability even as a rookie).
Cecil - an elite young arm that is showing solid improvement as he moves past the 100ip mark of his career.
Litsch - missed all year to injury
Rzepczynski - missed all year to injury
Morrow - an elite young arm that has pretty much blown up disastrously

not exactly the stuff of great fortune here, IMO.

zeppelinkm - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#215865) #

Dave,

To answer a question you posed in your comment - I would most definitely still trade Rickey Ro straight up for Tulowitzki now.

Rickey has looked great. But I think long term, a high BA, good defensive SS who hits for great power is more valuable to myself, or just about any team, than a #2 starter. Good starters come up in FA every now and again - and are costly, sure. But how often does a SS like Tulo actually make it to FA?

But I agree with your general point - the gap between the two, and the crying foul about the Rickey pick, is not nearly as significant as it was a couple years ago.

John Northey - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#215866) #

It has been a fun ride, still just 1 game out of the wild card and still ahead of Boston. But now comes the first big test of the season. 9 games in a row against 2 of the 3 Beasts of the East. If the Jays are still just 1 game out of the wild card after these 9 games (or in the wild card position) I think the excitement level will jump big time. But a 4-5 set over these 9 is the best most can hope for, praying not to see a 2-7, 1-8 or (gulp) 0-9 record.

Eh, lets be optimistic - 12 game winning streak anyone? :)

uglyone - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#215867) #

just to add to the Ricky-Tulo debate - Ricky Romero (2.4) is leading the AL in WAR for pitchers here near the 1/3 mark of the season, by a healthy margin (Liriano is 2nd at 2.0). He's tied in 2nd overall with Ubaldo, behind only Roy.

Tulowitzki (1.7) is 30th amongst position players.

China fan - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#215868) #

I agree with uglyone on this. And in response to Mike: the "neutral" predictions may have underestimated the degree of improvement by Marcum/Romero/Cecil so far this season, but the neutral predictions weren't as inaccurate as the Bauxite predictions. (That's an impressionistic observation, of course, but I have to be impressionistic because there aren't any empirical data on the Bauxite consensus on player-by-player forecasts.) I always find it odd that Bauxites are so pessimistic every year -- more pessimistic than they need to be. I guess it's just the cynicism produced by constant disappointment since 1993, but the Jays are rarely as bad as the Bauxite pessimism would suggest.

bpoz - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#215870) #

The thread is pitching. Good. Everyone is correct. JP drafted good pitching. FA not so good. I expected Marcum this year to be so-so or worse and then hear about scar tissue. We will see about Litch. I thought/expected improvement from Romero but he has exceeded my expectations. All the other young pitchers from last year I expected/hoped for 10-15, wins based on a full season of starts & based on pretty good numbers last year with improvement this year. I thought only Romero would get his 200 innings.Because young pitchers will break your heart I expect inconsistencies and nasty surprises. The pen I expected to be to be good except for closer failures resulting in a merry -go-round. We are"building" so top 3SP is awesome progress. However if we were to consider that we could be contenders with NYY,TB and Bos then we are still good. All 4teams offenses are good. TB's pitching is the best the other 3 teams have weaknesses. Its a 4 team battle right now but last year's 2 losers had W-L records of TB 28-31 and Jays 26-33 AFTER July 31. The battle is going head to head now.

92-93 - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#215871) #

JP drafted good pitching. FA not so good.

The only noteworthy SP he ever signed, AJ Burnett, was pretty damn good. This is the typical unfair jab at Ricciardi.

R Romero Vaughan - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#215875) #

At the start of the season Ricky Romero had exactly 1 year's service time. Troy Tulowitzki had just over 3 years.

TT had signed a 6 year contract:

6 years/$31M (2008-13), plus 2014 club option:
10:$3.5M, 11:$5.5M, 12:$8.25M, 13:$10M 14:$15M club option ($2M buyout)

Based on his performance to date and if he can maintain it, right now you have to say that RR has more value given he's under control for another 4 seasons and how much he'll cost.

Ironically, his struggles in the minors will save the Jays a bunch of money and may make him one of the biggest bargains in the game.

I'm no JP fan (partly because of the somewhat odious atmosphere he managed to create for no good reason)

But whoever said he just needed some luck - well I kind of agree. A couple of people developing on a different curve, VW not getting hurt, JB breaking out 2 years before, a trade that never happened... we're talking about a very different landscape...

Jevant - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#215877) #

I love me some Rick-Ro, but I would absolutely 100% trade Romero straight up for Tulowitzki right now. To be honest, I don't even think it's debatable.

I'm not ripping Romero, or bashing JP again for it, just stating the way I see it.

Moe - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#215879) #

Tulowitzki (1.7) is 30th amongst position players.

Except that over the last 3 years the Jays could have really used a SS. Things may have gone very different w/ Tulo here in 2007-2009. Could it be that RR ends up being the big lefty JP hoped for? Sure.

But how much would a Wild card in 2007 be worth? Maybe Roy would still be here? I don't know. But even if RR keeps pitching like this for a few more seasons, I would argue that a trip to the post season in 07 and maybe again in 09 would be better for the Jays in the present and near future.

zeppelinkm - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#215880) #

Furthermore, Tulo only started hitting any home runs on May 19th (he had 1 over the first 50 days of the season). So, by looking at WAR for April and May, you are capturing all of Rickey's "above expected" performance, while capturing 10 days of Tulo's "hot" streak, and 6 weeks of his "BA only" contribution to the Rockies. I suspect that by Aug 1, and then by Oct 1, the WAR gap will get smaller for 2010, and ultimately end up with Tulo ahead of Romero. Obviously I am being a bit liberal with my Tulo hot streak, BA only contribution, but I think you get the idea. Especially considering what Tulo did last year after June 1st...

Even if Rickey still leads in WAR at seasons end, I would still make that trade for Tulo. That's a heck of a contract he's signed for.

Forkball - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#215881) #

I'm not sure that Anthopoulous would trade Romero for Tulowitzki right now, if given the chance - would you?

Yes. And even more so with the composition of the team.

But the lamenting about the pick should have died a year ago.

uglyone - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#215882) #

I'm a little surprised to see how readily people dismiss the fact that, at least according to WAR, Ricky has been either the best or 2nd best pitcher in baseball so far this year, depending on how much you tag Roy for pitching in the minor league this year.

Having a 25 year old Cy Contender, if he can keep it up, must be at least comparable to having the 3rd or 4th best SS in baseball.

Jevant - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#215885) #

Having a 25 year old Cy Contender, if he can keep it up, must be at least comparable to having the 3rd or 4th best SS in baseball.

Ay, but right there is the rub. "If he can keep it up".

Tulowitzki has been awesome for 4 years now. Romero is just starting his second decent year. Admittedly, he's been more than decent this year.

Also - a good defender at a premium position who plays every day with average, OBP, power, speed? I'd take that over Romero any day of the week, sorry.

Romero has been great so far, but Tulowitzki has been great for 4 years. This isn't an apples-to-apples comparison, in my books.

Go Ricky.

92-93 - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#215886) #

Tulowitzki is the best SS in MLB (once you realize Hanley shouldn't be playing SS), and he has proven his value over the course of 2.5 seasons. Romero had a nice first half in 2009 and is off to a tremendous start in 2010 but has yet to prove he can sustain that success for an entire season. I too wouldn't think twice about the deal.

John Northey - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#215887) #

Just checking Tampa's B-R page I see they are doing it again.

51 games in and just 5 starting pitchers used. Whoever their trainer is, he isn't getting paid enough. Last year they used 7 starters and in '08 they had 5 with 27+ starts and 4 with 5 or fewer. The year before (when they sucked) they had 3 with 30+, and 5 others with 10+ each (all of whom sucked thus ineffectiveness not injury would've pulled them out).

So far just 6 guys used here in Toronto, but last year there were 12 starters, 8 in '08, and 11 in '07 and only in '08 did more than one guy get 30 starts (2 did).

uglyone - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#215889) #

well, let's go easy on the Tulo hype a bit.

He was very good but not great in year 1 in 2007.

He was poor in year 2 in 2008.

He was phenomenal in year 3 in 2009.

He has been very good here in year 4 but not quite 2009 good quite yet.

Not quite this "awesome for 4 years" track record that you guys are talking about.

He's been awesome for 1.3 years. Ricky has been awesome for 0.3 years.

Jdog - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#215896) #

Troy Tulowitzki's career splits

Home .304/.378/.515
Away .268/.341/.439

Tulowitzki while a good SS would be fairly average looking without the benefit of Coors field.

Jevant - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#215898) #

Really?

Finished 2nd in ROY voting in 2007. At 22. At the hardest position on the diamond. And he did that over the course of the entire year.

He had a weak injury plagued year in 2008.

Was awesome for all of 2009.

Has been awesome to date for 2010, without much power yet.

And he plays every day.

Rick-Ro had a solid, if unspectacular rookie season. And has admittedly (WP aside) been great in 2010.

I'll take the SS.

TamRa - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#215899) #

Lyle Overbay seems to be thriving in the less-pressured 7th slot in the lineup. Is it time to try the same with Aaron Hill? Maybe switch him with Gonzalez, so he's in the 6th slot? Gonzalez would seem a reasonable choice to bat 2nd in the lineup.

without re-igniting the previous discussion, Gonzo is a HORRIBLE choice for #2. i agree with the idea of moving Hill down, and I'll readily concede that there are no good choices on the team for #2 (i.e. gonzo might end up there by default if you did move Hill) but that doesn't mean he's at all suited for the job.
In fact he's so ill-suited i thin I'd just leave hill alone.

Anyway, each of those steps could take days or weeks. As far as I can figure out, it might be late June before we see Snider in a Jays game. Or even July.

i can't speak to how long they take from begining baseball activites to game action (I'd guess 7-10 days) but the actual rehab assignment likely won't be very long. EE for instance was only out for 3 games in Dunedin. If I was forced to guess, I'd guess a target date of June 18 when the Jays come back from the West coast. As it happens that would give him the first Dunedin series out of the Hi-A all-star break as a rehab assignment.

subculture - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#215900) #

I've never played pro ball, but I know that hitting home runs is not an easy thing to do. In fact, I believe it's a very difficult thing to do, especially with any consistency.

First you have to have a pretty good idea about the velocity of the pitch, which can vary from 75-100 mph (leaving knucklers out of the equation). Then, you have to determine within a fraction of a second if that pitch is going to end up in the strike zone (or if in fact it might be headed for somewhere else, like your head). You then need to perfectly execute your swing (involving pretty much every part of your body and balance) and drive the ball HARD (not too low, not too high a trajectory), and not too far left or too far right.

This explains why people who can hit home runs consistently get paid so well, because there aren't very many of them.

The fact that the Jays are hitting so many is quite an incredible story. Unfortunately, their inability to score runs this season without the home run can only point to a very disappointing few weeks/months ahead of us.

Why? 3 words - pitching, pitching, pitching.

The quality of the starters from Tampa, New York and Boston are ultimately going to break our hearts, beginning with tonight's matchup. Jay killer Matt Garza against B. Morrow of the ominous era (6.66).

B. Morrow in a groove against a free-swinging team has a very good chance. Brandon against a smart hitting team, pitching from the stretch with constant pressure from speedy runners, spells disaster. There's a good chance that he's pulled very early, eats up bullpen innings, and sets the tone for a poor stretch of games. Tallet can't be counted on for anything more than 5 innings of less than 5 runs hopefully. Realistically, the Jays only have a shot of winning the games pitched by Marcum, Cecil and Romero over the next few weeks. Winning just half of their starts will have us in 4th place, likely 10 games back of the Rays in 2 weeks time.

- Xnij Esrever

John Northey - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#215901) #

TamRa - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#215902) #

It's not hard to envision a scenario in which none of these things happened - in which case, the Jays would be closer to where Baltimore is now.

This reminds me of my pretty constant argument over the last five years with the pessimist crowd.

The things you described were, for many, the ASSUMED likely outcome. and when i would suggest it was just as possible Marcum would be effective, Romero would step up, Cecil was as good as Price, or whatever (just firing off your examples here) I was called an irrational optimist and a homer.

The thing is, over the last five years far too ften the negative "side of the coin" turned up and reinforced the tendency to be negativist towards the future possibilities.

What you describe here is essentially the shoe being placed on the other foot - FINALLY - in that the "ifs" are breaking in the Jays' favor.

Those ifs were always there during the 2006-2008 window, they just far more often broke the other way.

So it's like flipping a coin and having it land "heads" 6 out of 8 times. It's well within the realm of possibility, but it's luckier than average.

Exactly right - but it is also exactly right when I was saying year after year that the Jays were having an inordinate amount of bad luck. For three years, at least, we got heads 2 out of 8 times.

and I said "a lot of bad luck" and a lot of folks said "no, they just suck"

So yeah, there's some good luck here (though I don't really count Romero and Cecil getting to this point as luck) - Marcum not missing a beat, Gregg being in top form, and FAR more of it on offense (JB, Buck, Gonzo) - but you might call it karma too, because we had some scale balancing coming.

TamRa - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#215903) #

Tulowitzki while a good SS would be fairly average looking without the benefit of Coors field.

Indeed.

and furthermore, if one argues "we could have used a SS that last few years" then you are basically saying "we should have drafted for need" which pretty much EVERYONE agrees you should NEVER do.

Furthermore, on draft day 205 we had two guys we thought were going to be major league middle infielders of not inconsiderable ability so even if we had stupidly drafted to need, that wouldn't have necessarily demanded we take Tulo over Romero.

Also, in most every conversation when GM's discuss developing young talent, they say "develop your pitchers, buy your hitters" under the reasoning that good young controlable pitching is a much harder commodity to acquire than good hitting (and you can more easily trade excess pitching for hitting than the reverse)

So all these factors suggest that if you expect that Romero and Tulo are relatively equal in their potential WAR value on draft day, it's not at all a bad move to take the pitcher.

Looking back and noticing how much need we ended up having at SS in 2007-2009 is post-hoc reasoning.

uglyone - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#215905) #

Why? 3 words - pitching, pitching, pitching.

Funny thing that - a great argument could be made that the starters for Tampa are in for a reality check once they finally encounter some of the good hitting teams.

People keep forgetting that Tampa is currently tied with the Jays for the easiest schedule in the league so far. Both with an identical .483 opponent's winning percentage, though the Rays have had a few more home games than the Jays have had.

The Jays are already responsible for Garza's (5.ip/5er) and Niemann's (6.2ip/3er) 2nd worst starts this year, though they did let Price (9.0ip/0er) have his best start against them.

Just for the record, Morrow already pitched against this Rays team this year:

Morrow v. TB: 6.0ip, 3h, 2er, 6bb, 8k

Ricky and Cecil also had a fairly easy time against the Rays in the first series.

People seem to forget that we played the Rays already, and the only reason we lost the series was because Downs, Frasor, and Janssen all chose to have by far their worst outings of the season.

TamRa - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#215906) #

to the original post:

I'd rather separate the performance from the positions.

T. Bautista - 41
J Bautista - 16 (needs 25 more to get there. If his actual talent level is 24 homers, that is about 4 a month which would give him 32 on the season)

Delgado - 41
Wells - 13 (needs 28 to tie, if he's a 30 homer guy, that's about 5 a month so project him to 33)

Fulmer - 32
Gonzo - 11 (using the above method, call him about 22 on the season)

Cruz - 31
Hill - 8 (allowing for time missed to injury - this projects to roughly a wash)

Mondesi - 24
Buck - 8 (if he hits 4 a month he'd catch up to Mondesi, his career high is 18 so that's not outrageous but Ill give him 19)

Stewart - 21
Lind - 7 (if hew returns to something like last years form, that's 6 a month which puts him right around 30)

Fletcher - 20
Overbay 7 (typically about 3 a month which would put him right at 20)

Gonzo - 15
Snider - 6 (if he starts 88 more games this year and maintains the current pace he'd reach 30)

total so far:

2000 = 225
2010 projected = 218

Greene, Cordova, Grebek, Woodward, Martinez, bush and Castillo = 19

EE - already has 7 of those, if he only doubles that total (roughly) he has 15 of the 19 in the bank

Lewis - project his total to about 12

there's a couple more already in the books, so update the totals to-

2000 = 244
2010 = 247

Obviously a severe decline or major injury would be possible but, on paper, it's not impossible at all.

uglyone - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#215907) #

So yeah, there's some good luck here (though I don't really count Romero and Cecil getting to this point as luck) - Marcum not missing a beat, Gregg being in top form, and FAR more of it on offense (JB, Buck, Gonzo) - but you might call it karma too, because we had some scale balancing coming.

"Luck"

Starting Rotation

Good: Marcum, Romero, Cecil
Bad: Morrow, Litsch, Rzepczynski

Bullpen

Good: Gregg, Lewis
Bad: Frasor, Accardo

Hitting

Good: Bautista, Gonzo, Buck, Wells?
Bad: Lind, Hill, Overbay, Ruiz?

Scales look fairly balanced to me so far this year. For the first time in ages.

A note on the hitting, if you reverse the numbers of Bautista/gonzo/Buck with Lind/Hill/Overbay, so that you get the following list:

Lind: .969ops
Overbay: .825ops
Hill: .822ops
Buck: .679ops
Bautista: .663ops
Gonzo: .622ops

And I'd say that actually leans a bit more to unlucky, than lucky. Those numbers wouldn't be far out of whack for Lind/Overbay/Hill, but those numbers would be very low low still even for Buck/Bautista/Gonzo. Of course, Wells having a good year makes up for that difference. Unless he really is just this good, and was unluckily sidetracked by injury.

James W - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#215908) #

If it's worth anything, since Frasor got blown up by the Rays, his last 12 outings total:

12.0 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 12 K.

uglyone - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#215912) #

you take out their single blow-up outings against the Rays where they combined to give up 11 runs recording only 3 outs in the 8th innings of both Game 2 and 3, actually, and Downs' era this year is 1.52, Frasor is at 2.70, and Janssen is at 2.57.

TamRa - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#215913) #

Realistically, the Jays only have a shot of winning the games pitched by Marcum, Cecil and Romero over the next few weeks. Winning just half of their starts will have us in 4th place, likely 10 games back of the Rays in 2 weeks time.

1. It would be a mistake to assume they lose EVERY game pitched by morrow (or Litsch when he gets here) and a mistake to assume we win only half of those started by the big 3. For one example, Morrow pitches against Vazquez Sunday and even if he pitches poorly, there's every chance both of those guys will and we win a high scoring game.

2. even if we play .500 ball, no, let's make it .400 ball, between now and the break, that's a .500 record but it presumes things about the Rays success over the same period which are yet unproven. It's not necessarily true that any team in the east will run away from us just because we have a difficult stretch

3. While I have mentally prepared myself for a month of under .500 ball, I think it is a considerable overstatement to assert the Jays WILL be 10 games back in two weeks.

4. the fact that the two teams have had a similarly easy schedule up to now, combined with the fact that the Jays have a considerably harder schedule between now and the break, implies one crucial thing - the Rays will have a considerably harder second half. So even losing a few games in the standings now is no guarantee they can't be made up later.

In other words, don't be such a negative nancy

Moe - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#215914) #

and furthermore, if one argues "we could have used a SS that last few years" then you are basically saying "we should have drafted for need" which pretty much EVERYONE agrees you should NEVER do.

I agree, you should never draft for need. And I did not advocte that.

Furthermore, on draft day 205 we had two guys we thought were going to be major league middle infielders of not inconsiderable ability so even if we had stupidly drafted to need, that wouldn't have necessarily demanded we take Tulo over Romero.

Sounds to me like the Jays did draft for need. JP (and look back, I'm more likely to defend him than ripping him) didn't want to draft a third SS in a row. However, had he done it, we would have been better in years 07-09.

Now, why did I bring this up? Because some people here seem to say that drafting RR over Tulo was the right choice becuase RR has a higher WAR this year. What they forget is that in the past few years the Jays could have used him. Thus, RR performance today does not render the critizism of the 2005 draft incorrect.

In 2005, the Jays (aka JP) assumed they didn't need a SS and drafted RR although the scouts were higher on Tulo. This is the perfect example that drafting to need is bad. If they had ignored need at the time of draft, they would have picked a SS for the third time in 3 years which would have later turned out to fill a need.

Again, I really don't think it makes sense to warm up the RR vs Tulo debate (I didn't do it) but if you do, you can't ignore (a) what Tulo did the past 3 years and (b) that this would have filled a need.

Lylemcr - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#215915) #

Talking about trading Trulowiski and Romero is hogwash. The truth is that in the Toronto organization, TT might have not flourished. Maybe someone saw him behind Adams or something. You don't know. In another organization, maybe Romero gets a coach that talks to him in his first year and zooms to the majors.

It is just heresy. In the end, Romero is here and pitching very well. Hopefully, one of the shortstops develop and is better than TT and we end up with an even better shortstop.

Looking back at those numbers. It is amazing what career years can be like. I forgot that Fulmer ever hit that many home runs. That just proves that in the end, you don't know what your team can do. If everyone has career years, you might do something that year....

TamRa - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#215916) #

Scales look fairly balanced to me so far this year. For the first time in ages.

Indeed.

To correct myself in light of your solid observations in this thread, what we have this year isn't so much good luck as the absence of an overabundance of the presistant bad luck of the last five years or so.

Magpie - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#215917) #

Tulowitzki while a good SS would be fairly average looking without the benefit of Coors field

No kidding.

Split   G  GS   PA  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS  BB  SO BAVG  OBP  SLG   OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ 
 Home 236 233 1006 887 161 270 53 10 38 151 17 16 100 161 .304 .378 .515 .893 457  32  9   3  7   7  11 .334  114 
 Away 244 238 1040 921 145 247 46  6 33 118 17  9 100 194 .268 .341 .439 .780 404  28  6   6  7   8   8 .305   87

Anders - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#215918) #

The Jays have been about the 4th best team in the American League so far this year, both in terms of W-L record and run differential. I don't think any reasonable projection, based on statistics or intuition, would have put them in these lofty heights. I think it's probably a good idea to enjoy it while it lasts and recognize that it will likely not. For example, the Blue Jays will probably not break the all time home run record, as they are flirting with at the moment. Nor will Jose Bautista and Vernon Wells end up as 2 of the 10 best hitters in the AL, nor Ricky Romero and Shaun Marcum as 2 of the best 5 pitchers in the AL. Other than Brian Tallet, none of the pitchers have been injured (and that was probably a blessing in disguise) and while various hitters have missed time, they've either been scuffling or played one of the positions that Jose Bautista does or both, and the Jays have a very poor bench.

It's reasonable to expect Adam Lind, Aaron Hill and, to a lesser degree Lyle Overbay, to hit better. Conversely everyone else will probably hit worse over the course of the year. These things rarely balance out in proportion. All told I think if you thought the Jays were a 75 win team at the beginning of the year then maybe 80 wins is a better guess at this point. If you thought the Jays were a 90 win team at the beginning of the year then maybe this start will make them a better bet for the playoffs; otherwise perhaps not.

For what it's worth we had this conversation last year before the giant 0-Fer road trip.

Hodgie - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#215919) #

Is it the prevailing wisdom that a shortstop of equal age and value is more difficult to find than his comparable pitching counterpart? I am not one to rush to judgement on the Romero/Tulowitzi debate as both are still in the infancy of their careers, however I am surprised at the number of respondents in the thread that seem to think it would be unfathomable not to trade Romero for Tulowitzki is that were at all possible.

Tulowitzki has had what I consider 2.3 seasons of good performances compared to Romero's 1.3. Tulowitzki has obviously contributed more to Colorado to this point thanks to his earlier arrival. Two things concern me regarding Tulowitzki performance though which would at least give me pause when considering said trade. His home/road splits have already been quoted earlier and to further support that, Coors Field has ranked as a top 3 hitters park each of the last 4 seasons. The Las Vegas + PCL effect is commonly quoted in these pages when tempering performance expectations for Jay's AAA prospects; what effect should the Coors+ (AAAA) NL West combination have on his performance?

There also seems to be the assumption that Tulowitzki is an elite defender, further enhancing his value. This seems to be almost solely based on his rookie season and UZR for what it is worth doesn't seem to agree. His UZR/150 numbers from 2006 to present are 13.2, 0.1, 2.6, -1.3. All the caveats about sample sizes and inconsistent defensive metrics noted, one of those numbers is definitely not like the others.

Please don't get me wrong, I am not advocating one way or the other as I really like both players. I just don't see the choice being the foregone conclusion that others make it appear. So I ask again, prevailing wisdom or personal choice? Is Tulowitzki vs the NL a fair comparison to Romero vs the AL?

Anders - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#215922) #

Apropos of nothing:

Luis Atilano pitching for Washington	WAS	HOU
G Chacin homered to right.	4	2

In other former Jays news, Alex Rios has, according to WAR, been the second best position player in baseball this year.

uglyone - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#215924) #

The Jays have been about the 4th best team in the American League so far this year, both in terms of W-L record and run differential.

For the record, the Jays were the 7th best team in the AL last year in run differential at +27, and it's not our fault that LA and BOS and TEX decided to get markedly worse over the offseason.

And for the record, the Jays were the 2nd best team in the AL the year in 2008 in run differential at +104.

Not so sure that with a (knock-on-wood!!) finally healthy starting staff for once, and a rejuvenated Wells in the middle of the lineup, that finishing top-5 in run differential is that much of a pipe dream, really.

This team has always seemed to have the talent to put up a nice pretty Run Differential each year. It's just that damn Pythagoras guy keeps screwing with us.

uglyone - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#215925) #

The Jays have been about the 4th best team in the American League so far this year, both in terms of W-L record and run differential.

For the record, the Jays were the 7th best team in the AL last year in run differential at +27, and it's not our fault that LA and BOS and TEX decided to get markedly worse over the offseason.

And for the record, the Jays were the 2nd best team in the AL the year in 2008 in run differential at +104.

This team has always seemed to have the talent to put up a nice pretty Run Differential each year. It's just that damn Pythagoras guy keeps screwing with us.

Moe - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#215926) #

Tulowitzki while a good SS would be fairly average looking without the benefit of Coors field

However, while Coors is still a hitters park, it is not quite that bad any more (park factor has been <110 for his entire career). And he does play a far number of road games in pitcher parks.

I hope RR turns out great. But that doesn't mean I would not have liked Tulo on the team for the past few years. However, at this point, I would not do the straight up trade any more. The Jays are now at a different point of the development cycle.

bpoz - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#215927) #

92-93 you are quite right when you say that AJ Burnett was a good FA pickup by JP. But JP himself said something like if he had known that Marcum, Mc Gowan and Litch would have developed like they did he would not have got Burnett. Burnett had injuries his 1st 2 years with the Jays (10 wins/yr)but 18 wins in the 3rd year. 38 Wins in 3 years for $33mil is good but his ERA was not so good. I follow the Jays and have MY OWN set of standards. I realize this can be unfair to players but then I have been a Jays fan since 1977 so I judge by Steib, Key,Hentgen etc performances. Also personally I NEVER liked FAs but thats another topic so I will not supply details. Burnett was a .500 Pitcher when we got him with ERAs in the high 300- low 400 range. His current record is 106-87 (+19), (+16 in 08,09,10). "I" was happy he left so that we would save the $ (getting the draft picks was a bonus). IMO the Jays have always developed good talent in their minor league system. "I" like Litch better than Burnett, IMO Litch's 3.58ERA and 13-9 record in 08 is what I expect the farm to produce. I liked JP and think he would have been very successful for any team that does not have to win against the beasts of the east. But he paid $10mil/ea to F Thomas and Bj Ryan for not playing with the Jays and I did not like the price tag when they did play for us,I believe every $ is precious in the budget, that is basically my only criticism of JP. Well actually I think the "get on base" philosophy versus the "drive him in" philosophy was wrong and I will quickly discuss this. IMO if a guy is in scoring position you should still swing at slightly outside/high/low pitches rather than take the walk because the next gut may get nothing to hit. It bothered me very much when with 2 or 3 men on base J Carter would hit a SF (out) rather than a single until the (before Cito)Jays got nothing in that situation very frequently. I am glad Overbey is swinging more and taking less. Tulo or Rickey? J Guzman(Jays), J Beckett and J Contreras (WSox) won world series with Aces and Hudson /Mulder/Zito got Oakland into the playoffs frequently so I prefer Rickey. R Braun/Rickey/Tulo I would have been happy with anyone.

rtcaino - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#215929) #

""The Jays have been about the 4th best team in the American League so far this year, both in terms of W-L record and run differential. I don't think any reasonable projection, based on statistics or intuition, would have put them in these lofty heights. I think it's probably a good idea to enjoy it while it lasts and recognize that it will likely not.""

they also have had one of the easiest sched's so far, while by the end of the year, they would likely have one of the hardest; which significantly influence W-L record and run differential.

Dave Till - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#215930) #

they also have had one of the easiest sched's so far, while by the end of the year, they would likely have one of the hardest; which significantly influence W-L record and run differential.

It's definitely true that the Jays have had an easy schedule: they've mostly played AL Central and AL West teams, and they've beaten a lot of them up. But it's probably worth recalling that the Jays were supposed to be one of the really really bad teams in the AL this year. Whereas it's beginning to look like they are about the fifth-best team (or so) in the league. Of course, three of the better teams are in the same division, but that's nothing new.

The thing is, over the last five years far too ften the negative "side of the coin" turned up and reinforced the tendency to be negativist towards the future possibilities.

What you describe here is essentially the shoe being placed on the other foot - FINALLY - in that the "ifs" are breaking in the Jays' favor.

Over the past few years, I've said, semi-seriously, that J.P.'s biggest problem was that he just wasn't lucky enough to be a major league general manager. It's ironic that, now that J.P. is gone, some of the breaks are starting to go the Jays' way.

Mylegacy - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#215931) #

SERIOUSLY - this talk is ALL 36 games too soon.

After our next 9 games with TB (6) and NY (3) and then our next 27 games - 24 of which are against teams with winning records - then - AND ONLY THEN - will I take our performance seriously - at which time I'll be drinking scotch by the case in celebration or by the case in commiseration - either way; I win!

Single malt (natch).

brent - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#215932) #

Well, Rios wouldn't be playing CF in Toronto, so he wouldn't shine on defensive stats. JP should have force the move before releasing him. Letting him go was still the right choice. He wouldn't have changed enough in TO.

stevieboy22 - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#215934) #

SERIOUSLY - this talk is ALL 36 games too soon.

Did Mylegacy just tell us all to temper their enthusiasm?

Mike Green - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#215936) #

It was awfully clever of Walton to give Morrow a severe tongue-lashing about his unsightly BABIP before tonight's game. DIPS, schmips!

subculture - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#215937) #

In other words, don't be such a negative nancy

I can't help it, with a name like mine I have to be negative!

In fact I'm pretty sure the Jays are going to get blasted over these next 27 games, there's no way that they can keep hitting homers and pitching at a high level!

- Xnij Esrever

TamRa - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#215938) #

Lineup effects on offense are fairly minor. If moving him to #8 would help Hill get back on track, and Gonzo would feel good hitting #2 then why not as both will be in the lineup anyways? Once Hill remembers which end of the bat to use then shift back to normal.

I'm not a fan of Gonzo hitting early in the lineup, but it probably won't cost much if done for a month and if it gets Hill back to being himself lets go for it.

One thing that does matter is giving more at bats to a bad hitter. If you want to move Hill down, put Bautista in the 2 hole - that way you at least give a hot hitter more opportunities.

TamRa - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#215939) #

Again, I really don't think it makes sense to warm up the RR vs Tulo debate (I didn't do it) but if you do, you can't ignore (a) what Tulo did the past 3 years and (b) that this would have filled a need.

Agreed, actually (on both counts)

If the point is "Tulo would have helped us during a crucial window of opportunity" then by all means that's "YES!"

If the argument is "Romero was the wrong pick BECAUSE Tulo would have helped us the last few years" then THAT is post-hoc reasoning.

The pick stands or falls based on the circumstances of the pick and the player, not on the vaguires of how an entire team performs 4 or 5 years down the road.

At least, IMO.

greenfrog - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#215940) #

The ninth inning tonight may be the highest-leverage inning of the year so far. Interesting test for Gregg.

braden - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#215941) #

Are we having fun yet? I honestly haven't been that nervous during a game in a number of years. I'm still entirely concerned about the next 8 (and 36 games), but tonight appeared to be a mismatch on paper. Youneverknow.

Mike Green - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#215942) #

Sweet. With Morrow having gone 7 innings, Marcum on Wednesday and a day off on Thursday, there is absolutely no reason not to have Janssen or Frasor throw 3 innings after Tallet tomorrow.

rtcaino - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#215943) #

It's definitely true that the Jays have had an easy schedule: they've mostly played AL Central and AL West teams, and they've beaten a lot of them up. But it's probably worth recalling that the Jays were supposed to be one of the really really bad teams in the AL this year. Whereas it's beginning to look like they are about the fifth-best team (or so) in the league. Of course, three of the better teams are in the same division, but that's nothing new.

For sure.

I was more saying, that while someone could say going into the season that the Blue Jays would be the forth or fifth best team in the division. That same person knowing that they would face the easiest schedule in baseball up to this point would certainly adjust their projections significantly upward. Knowing full well that over the rest of the year, that the Blue Jays would face what would likely consider to be one of the hardest schedules, and their initial projections could still be accurate despite the current watermark.

I hope they continue to play well against the Rays, Yanks and Sox, and we can just discuss their record, and forget that they had an easy starting schedule altogether!

Spifficus - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#215944) #

Just say no to tandems! :) It does set them up well for a quick hook, though.

Am I crazy, or was Morrow's arm slot a little lower tonight? I wish the pitchf/x at the Rogers Centre wasn't screwy this year...

rtcaino - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#215945) #

The ninth inning tonight may be the highest-leverage inning of the year so far. Interesting test for Gregg.

Certainly the sweatiest my palms have been all season! (As you say, so far.)

Would be nice if Morrow could face the Rays every time.

greenfrog - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#215946) #

What makes tonight's win all the more impressive is that coming into the game, the Rays were 19-5 on the road. The Jays are playing mighty impressive baseball this season.

Also, it's worth noting that Longoria was cut down at the plate in the 9th because Cito decided to play the infield in with runners on the corners and one out. Bold move. He could have played the middle infield back in an attempt to coax a DP. As it turned out, Jaso banged one right to short, and Gonzalez made a fine play to field the ball cleanly and throw out the runner at home. Of course, if the infield had been back, it might have been a DP ball, but you never know. All's well that ends well.

Magpie - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#215947) #

Bastian tweets that Roenicke has been optioned to Las Vegas to clear a roster spot for Tallet. The bullpen is looking very sinister indeed, with Downs, Purcey, and Lewis, along with Tallet emerging on occasion to make the occasional spot start.

greenfrog - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#215948) #

True, but all but one of the money guys are righties: Gregg, Downs, Frasor, Camp, Janssen. As for the sinister types, Purcey is a complete wildcard. He could come in in a pressure situation and blow away a lefty batter, or walk the house and put the game on ice for the opposition. Would you want Purcey facing, say, Carl Crawford with the game on the line?

uglyone - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#215950) #

beauty win, but damn I would have kept Morrow in there with out 'pen's history against this team.

and we simply cannot let leadoff doubles go without scoring those runs in the 7th and 8th innings - that's unforgiveable and we should have been punished for it.

I was more saying, that while someone could say going into the season that the Blue Jays would be the forth or fifth best team in the division. That same person knowing that they would face the easiest schedule in baseball up to this point would certainly adjust their projections significantly upward. Knowing full well that over the rest of the year, that the Blue Jays would face what would likely consider to be one of the hardest schedules, and their initial projections could still be accurate despite the current watermark.

I hope they continue to play well against the Rays, Yanks and Sox, and we can just discuss their record, and forget that they had an easy starting schedule altogether!

The Rays have had an easier schedule than the Jays so far this year.

rtcaino - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#215951) #

I would prefer Purcey not face anyone with the game on the line for a while.

I'm happy to have him on the roster, let the coaches work with him, and get him some reps in low leverage situations.

Which is to say, when I saw him warming up in the pen tonight, I was really hoping it was just to get a session in.

rtcaino - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#215952) #

The Rays have had an easier schedule than the Jays so far this year.

Yes, but still better than the Blue Jays' average competition thus far. Or I presume they are, even when controlling for their competition.

uglyone - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#215953) #

no, the Rays have had an easier schedule so far.

ayjackson - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#215954) #

According to Baseball Reference's Simple Rating System, the Jays are the 5th best team in the AL and the Majors when accounting for strength of schedule.

jerjapan - Monday, May 31 2010 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#215955) #

hard to tell what was better to see tonight, Morrow's efficient start or Hill's three hits ...

subculture - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 12:41 AM EDT (#215958) #

That was a great win, especially considering the Rays pulled out all the stops (pitching changes, substitutions, emphatic base slapping) and clearly were battling for the victory.

Tomorrow is another lopsided matchup though, and I'm sure the Jays won't be able to rough up Niemann nor prevent Tallet from getting shelled.

-� Xnij Esrever

rtcaino - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 01:21 AM EDT (#215960) #

no, the Rays have had an easier schedule so far.

I phrased that awkwardly: I meant that the Rays as a team, are better than the Blue Jays average competition so far. I didn't mean to compare the competition faced by the two teams.

ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#216016) #

there is absolutely no reason not to have Janssen or Frasor throw 3 innings after Tallet tomorrow.

Well, so far through 2/3 of an inning tonight they've combined to give up 2 runs, so there's at least one reason.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 01 2010 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#216017) #

Yeah. Tallet pitched almost 6 innings, despite having mostly short and not great rehab outings. Youneverknow.

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