I was at this game.  When the Jays went down 9-3 in the third it had the feel of a game that was over but to give the Jays credit they came back.  Cecil was unlucky in the first inning but the Rangers hit him harder in the second.  I was surprised he was pulled even though he hadn't pitched well.  I wondered if he was hurt or if he gets down on himself too much when he gets hit around like that.  With Zep and Litsch on the horizon Cecil is probably now close to being the low man on the totem pole if he doesn't improve over the next couple of weeks.

It looked to me that Aaron Hill had changed his batting stance, his hands are up around his head and in the middle of his head before the pitcher delivers and then he moves them back.  Vernon did misplay a hit in the first inning, he froze on it and when he came in it was too late.

Janssen was great, I agree, he did deserve the win.  And he saved the bullpen, Downs and Gregg are fully rested for today.

Travis Snider is out of the lineup today with a sore wrist.  Cito hopes he will be back in the lineup tomorrow.

I also turned the game on at 8-3; years of living in North Texas dictated my reaction, which was "Wow, wonder if that will hold up?" Josh Lewin and Tom Grieve were already talking about how the Jays led the planet in home runs and extra base hits and were wondering the same thing -- on the air.

I am completely unsurprised that the DFW-area sports headlines today regard the Rangers making a series of decisions about rushing some minor league pitching to Canada because the bullpen has been completely blown out availability-wise.

If Scooter Feldman doesn't pitch into the 7th today -- and he has been erratic this season, at best -- then the Jays are looking at another day in double digits.

It looked to me that Aaron Hill had changed his batting stance, his hands are up around his head and in the middle of his head before the pitcher delivers and then he moves them back.

I don't see this as a change, I believe the hands-at-the-head-and-then-pulled-back approach was the one Hill always employed. Now Alex Rios, that's a man with a new batting stance, or better yet a return to the old one.

Ricky's a stud.  I'm really loving Marcum and Ricky right now at the front of the rotation.  Seems like they both have the mentality of frontline pitchers, knowing that the bullpen needed a day off they bring their A-game.

If there was ever a time for Ricky Romero to pitch a complete game, today would be it.

Done and done!

That's puts Romero in the lead for inning pitched (56.1) and strike outs (59).

I don't see the bullpen as needing that much rest. Gregg and Downs have pitched only 1 innings over the last 6 days.
Still, nice shutout and it's probably good to have the innings mopers rested when Morrow starts tomorrow.

Nice game from Bautista.

Elsewhere, the Rays have designed Burell for assignment. He makes 9 million and has a line of .202 .292 .333 .625
Overbay makes 8 with a line of .191 .287 .336 .623

And while the Jays have a stud waiting to take over from Overbay, the Rays have called Hank Blalock from AAA to replace Burell.

actually...

1. Overbay makes $7 mil
2. Overbay plays great defense
3. Blalock was overdue for the call and AA believes Wallace needs more reps on defense
4. TB is a contender with a far higher premium on wasted at bats
5. Burrel had only played in 14 games in the last 24 days, and his slash lines since April 20 look like this:
.149/.268/.234/.502
6. in roughly the same period (since April 19) O'bay has played in 23 games in 25 days and posted the following line:
.260/.374/.468/.841 (coming into today)

I don't think the comparison holds up very well. It's been almost a month since Overbay was regularly failing his duties at the plate.

The one major number that hasn't been mentioned is 412 - That's the number of sucky at bats Burrell turned in last year, making the additional 84 to start this year merely more of the same.

Overbay, on the other hand, has simply had a bad beginning to the year after putting up a pretty decent season last year.

1) $7,950,000 according to ESPN

2) Great defense at the least important position.

5) Bad numbers through 131 at-bats are better than the same bad numbers through 80?

4) So, not being a contender--while actually contending--is reason enough to keep an overpaid player with not future?

6) Overbay's numbers are so bad than if you average one good game through a week they look much better. That's because he hasn't had one good game a week.

For salary it is best to go to Cot's Contracts as they are by far the most accurate and detailed site. They have Overbay at $7 million this year. ESPN probably averages out his $3.8 million bonus that was paid back in 2007 but that would not be a factor for trade or release.

It is interesting to see that Cot's has the Jays payroll for 2010 at $78.7 million for this year the lowest since 2006 and (if you factor in just regular inflation) lower than it was for Gord Ash's last season.

Interesting to note that the Jays have until this offseason to decide if they want Hill locked in for 2014 - they have to commit to 2014 after this season or their options are only good through 2013. $31 million for 4 years guaranteed or risk Hill being worth more than $10 million in 2014.

1) $7,950,000 according to ESPN

Cott's is far more reliable. ESPN just reports what the get from MLB which has pro-rated bonuses and many other things which throw off the actual reality of who gets what when.

2) Great defense at the least important position.

As opposed to DH? and with a 3B who makes adventerous throws?

5) Bad numbers through 131 at-bats are better than the same bad numbers through 80?

Huh?

4) So, not being a contender--while actually contending--is reason enough to keep an overpaid player with not future?

Actually contending? Like we were this time last year?
And no, that reason ALONE is not enough, but as one of several factors it matters.

6) Overbay's numbers are so bad than if you average one good game through a week they look much better. That's because he hasn't had one good game a week.

Again, HUH?

The one major number that hasn't been mentioned is 412

Good catch - should have been on my list.

I'll say one thing for Burell, he's line against RHP this year is .246 .329 .415 .744

That's actually not that bad, they could have platooned him if it wasn't reversed.

Coincidently,  Overbay and Burell are almost the same age: 33.

TB is a contender...

Not trying to weigh in on the Burrel vs. Overbay issue, but rather just wanting to make a point about Toronto not being seen by anyone here to be a contender.

What happened to the Jays last year? We fell out of contention when our pitching staff got (once again) decimated by injuries. We also had only two of our starting regulars hitting strongly.

Here is what I think is likely - Toronto ends up this year with a better record than all but two teams in the American League: Tampa Bay and New York. I say that assuming that all three of those teams avoid losing significant time on the DL for their pitchers.

What is the reason for my confidence? Well, right now, we have all nine of our starting position players either slugging strongly or rounding into form. Even the much maligned (by me included) Overbay is looking much more confident and no longer a black hole in the lineup.

True, Marcum and Romero are the only dependable starters so far this year. But with the imminent arrival of Litsch and Rzep,, Eveland will move to the pen against lefties, and the Jays will find enough strong starts from some combination of Litsch, Rzep, Cecil, and Morrow to keep them in games long enough for the home run hitters to perform their magic.

Yes, we have only won two games against Boston and Tampa so far, but have been close contenders in most of the others, and some of these early games were what I call 'sorting out' games, allowing Cito to realize quickly the virtue of moving Frasor out of the closer role, moving Accardo and Valdez down to Vegas, putting EE and Tallet on the disabled list, acquiring Lewis, all of which have been steps that have strengthened the positions they opened up.

Meanwhile, several players have been coached and supported through their initial struggles at the plate. Now they are rounding into form - Hill, Lind, Overbay are all likely to strongly outperform their first six weeks. Lewis is looking more and more comfortable in his American League leadoff role. Snider has been learning on the job - but who would complain about his performance now? Bautista can't seem to hit for average, but who would complain about his production?

On the hitting side (barring injury), we will want to watch Bautista, Buck and Gonzalez for the risk of production fall-off (reversion to the mean) but I have every confidence that with Hill, Lind and Overbay stepping up, the overall production will continue.

So, is it not fully possible that the Jays could stay ahead of Boston (with all its challenges) and that the AL East ends up with the three or even four best teams in the league? Then all it takes is the Jays being more lucky than NYY and TB WRT injuries (the Jays' turn?) and we could contend at the tape.

Probable - no. 35% chance - I think so.

EarlWeaverfan, a great analysis of the Jays chances. Also Scottt and Willrain, good points of view on TB/Jays. TB's 1st year 1998, 1st good year 2008, 2009 was 84 wins. Jays recent history 2006,7,8 had 87,83,86 wins. Cito took over a losing team partway into 2008 and he got them close enough at Sept 1st for "me" to get excited. TB had a big dropoff in 2009, so what happened? Subscribing to the "uneverno/anything can happen" philosophy I feel positive about this team. But honestly I think this team is playing great considering the youth and talent on hand and 2010 being a team in progress year. The sometimes bad performances of our 3,4,5 SP is something to be expected because these are growing pains but the offence scoring and winning through power is surprising and now expected by me because it is their hitting philosophy. We need good luck and consistency from veterans like Wells, Hill & Lind then Overbey does seem to have the odd good offensive game like Friday's 3/3 with power and 2 BB. Snider has to keep learning (and is) as does F Lewis but veterans like Bautista, Buck and A Gon and EE on the way should hopefully continue hitting for power. Cito said that he believes there are many 20 homer guys on this team. I am wondering if management is thinking more about winning now. B Cecil was pulled on Friday much quicker than Cito's usual "be patient and give him a chance to work out of it" style. I mean he was not walking batters much and how many hits found holes rather than double play balls. He did not get lucky. When EE (veteran, making a lot of $) comes back, if he is just given the 3rd base starting position and directly causes losses through errors then I will lose a lot of hope (I know be patient and give him a few games to get it together). There is lots of other stuff that can go right and wrong. We still have to succeed against inter-league and TB,Bos and NY which is coming up soon. I know TB, Bos and NY are more talented and have more "in their prime" players than just about anyone. They will also make acquisitions because they are going for "it". Our pen is fine, other than we don't have a stud closer but I for one am enjoying the over performance of this team. If this team falls because we play TB, Bos and NY 18 times each then I cannot fault them. Those are stacked teams and we are in this 4 team battle (our record says we belong), which I am enjoying but don't expect to win (sorry).

all I'll say about Tampa is that they better hope their very young starting staff keeps up it's absolutely awesome and consistent performance, because now that Bartlett and Zobrist have crashed back down to earth, their offense looks......well, it just doesn't look very good, period.  They've managed to cover up some pretty poor hitting this year with an incredible performance with RISP.....but that is starting to fade, and their run totals are starting to fall back in line with their actual hitting performance.....which is frighteningly poor once you get past Longoria and a hot Crawford.

Those are my thoughts exactly on the Rays.  Bartlett and Zobrist are tied with John MacDonald in HR's.  Nobody seems to have noticed that Upton is in his second year of a slump that would make VW's bad years look good in comparison.  How long does a slump need to be before it becomes the new normal?  Is it possible for a player to have his career year at age 22?  Pena is in the third year of decline.  Kapler continues to get AB's.  Jaso has saved them at catcher but he won't sustain it.  They really need Upton to get back to where he was because I think everyone else has regressed back to the norm