Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - TDIB: Marcum dominates Red Sox

The Jays finally win one against the Red Sox (3-2) and now head home for a series with Texas.

Shaun Marcum made it look pretty easy yesterday and picked up his second win. He went seven strong and gave up just a couple of hits and a walk to go against his six strikeouts. The hitters weren't having such an easy time of it, but Snider picked them up with a double and a homer giving him all the teams RBI. Kevin Gregg got roughed up a bit in the ninth for his worst outing as a Jay, but survived to convert the save.

Most of us were pretty baffled when Gregg was signed in the off-season. I think I can safely say no-one here thought he'd be this good - if you did stand up and take a bow. Prior to this year Gregg's never had an ERA under 3, and only twice had a K/BB over 3. Including yesterdays mini-meltdown his ERA this year is 2.12 and his K/BB is 4.75. SO, is this just a combination of a bit of luck and a small sample size or is he actually doing something different this year?

I had a poke around at fangraphs to try and figure this out. The first thing I noticed is that his predictive stats suggest he's been as good as his record looks. His fip is at 2.27 and his xfip at 2.40. The statistic that really stood out though is that he's become a groundball machine this year. His GB% is at 58.8% on the season, the highest it's ever been before was 46.8% back in 2005 when he was an Angel. The groundballs are coming at the expense of line drives, his LD% has always hovered in the high teens through his career, today it's at 8.8%. According to the pitch type numbers (I think fangraphs get's them from BIS) Gregg's doing this by completely changing his pitch selection. Before this year he threw 90% fastballs/sliders and mixed in an occasional splitter. This year he has started to throw a cutter almost 30% of the time and his fastball/slider combination more like 60%. He has played around with a cutter before this year, but this is the first year it's been a major part of his arsenal. I wonder if this is something he started with the Jays, as his groundball rate was very high last September with the Cubs, maybe that was when he started working this cutter into his repertoire. If he perfected it since he's been a Jay, then Bruce Walton deserves a raise.

By the way if you believe the fangraphs' 'Dollars' numbers Gregg's been worth $2.5 million so far this year,

No game day today. Texas are in town for a three day set this weekend.

Posted by Gwyn on Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 12:01 AM EDT.

TDIB: Marcum dominates Red Sox | 21 comments | Create New Account

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92-93 - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 05:05 AM EDT (#214999) #

I certainly wasn't baffled by Gregg's addition, and commented at the time that his signing, as well as the Gonzalez and JMac ones, could only be judged after the draft when we have a better idea of how the Jays were allocating their resources. The Hechevarria and Cardona signings were the first steps in my mind to validating the FA signings because I can now believe that won't take away from the Jays ability to go after top amateur talent.

In the best case scenario, Gregg can maintain solid production through July and the Jays can capitalize on some bullpen pieces, whether that means Gregg himself or somebody like Frasor because of the depth Gregg provides. And I'll point out that while he did have the benefit of a ridiculous strike zone on Papi and Bel-Tray, the inning could have looked a lot different if Vernon Wells didn't take a horrendous route to a very catchable line drive smoked by Drew. I couldn't help but sigh when I flipped to the highlights after the game and saw Rios making another tremendous catch in CF, robbing Cuddyer of a big HR in a 3-2 game.

greenfrog - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 07:58 AM EDT (#215002) #

One thing I've been wondering about is how good Gregg would have to be this year to qualify for Type A or B free agent status. I'm guessing he could reach Type B status with a solid year (he did notch 23 saves in 2009), but Type A might be a stretch, even with a 40-save season.

AWeb - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 08:06 AM EDT (#215003) #

The thing with type A status the last few years, or at least my impression, is that players reaching that level are not sought after unless they are actually top-level players. Most teams are not going to want to sign Gregg for big money based on one year with the Jays and give up draft picks in the process. Reaching Type A has been more of a curse than a blessing for some players and teams. So Gregg isn't necessarily going to fetch draft picks by signing somewhere else if no one wants to give up draft picks to sign him. The players union should be lobbying to get rid of the whole "level" system, and replace it withy actual free agency. Also, let teams trade draft picks if they want to (isn't that still banned in MLB?).

The best part of Gregg performing really well for the Jays would be the in-season benefits, which gets forgotten sometimes. If Gregg racked up 40 saves and an ERA around 2.00, that's great because the team does well as a result. With all the arcane (and often bizarre) rules about arbitration, super-two status, draft pick compensation, etc...I'm starting to tune out all of the long-term strategy of building a team.

greenfrog - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#215005) #

In general, I agree, but the Jays have been trapped in the sub-90 win range for so long that I would like to see AA go hard after the long-term success strategy. If that means being ruthless about adding players partially with a view to using them in trades or as a way of adding high draft picks, so be it. I think AA made some comments to this effect after he signed Gregg.

If Gregg racks up 40 saves and a 2.00 ERA, I'm not so sure some team won't sign him, even if he is a Type A. Look at the Red Sox (Scutaro), the Braves (Wagner), and the Mets (Barajas). Every off-season, teams have needs, and sometimes they're willing to forego a high pick to fill that need with a less-than-ideal player.

Chuck - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#215007) #

If Gregg racks up 40 saves and a 2.00 ERA, I'm not so sure some team won't sign him

The market for Soriano -- a much better pitcher than Gregg -- was weak last year and he ended up accepting arbitration.

TamRa - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#215009) #

You don't want Gregg to be an A - no one will sign him.

You want him to be a B so they don't have to give up a pick for him.

Ryan Day - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#215011) #

I don't know what happened with Soriano, but teams did give up draft picks for Jose Valverde and Mike Gonzalez, neither of whom is out of Gregg's league. Billy Wagner netted a pick, too - obviously a much better pitcher than Gregg, but he was 38 and coming off elbow surgery.

The market for closers tends to be weird and unpredictable. Gregg's kind of unpredictable, too, so who knows what will happen. On the other hand, his option for 2011 is only $4.5 million, so if he's really turned into a dominant closer, he'd be quite affordable.

bpoz - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#215015) #

Marcum was great. I like all the comments. One other angle to consider is if we trade any of our big 3 out of the pen (Gregg, Fraser & Downs)what effect does it have on any fragile confidence our starters may have if good starts are blown due to a dismantled pen. All kinds of nasty stuff can be prevented by a strong pen eg stranding inherited runners. Any how AA is not going to trade unless he gets something very good back even if he has to involve multiple teams.

Hodgie - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#215016) #

Why even wait for free agency compensation? George Sherrill would like to remind everyone there are other ways to convert over-achieving assests.

TamRa - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#215021) #

but teams did give up draft picks for Jose Valverde and Mike Gonzalez, neither of whom is out of Gregg's league.

Without looking at the more complex measures, I pretty much completely disagree with that assesment.

And Valverde waited WAY later to get a deal than he would have otherwise and most commentary i saw concluded that the signing that did happen was a mistake - I'd be nervous about gambling on another time screwing up to my benefit.

stevieboy22 - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#215031) #

You don't want Gregg to be an A - no one will sign him.

You want him to be a B so they don't have to give up a pick for him.

Can you offer someone arbitration after you have declined their options? If you can't this conversation is pointless.

But I must say, I find it funny how many people are in love with Kevin Gregg.... Even bad relievers go on 12 inning stints without giving up a run, and if Kevin Gregg started the season with a couple of his worst outings, I would suspect people would still regard him as a less than great signing...

If you look at the numbers, Kevin Gregg has a pretty weak history as a closer.... People need to simmer down...

TamRa - Friday, May 14 2010 @ 02:03 AM EDT (#215048) #

Gregg was actually really good last year too, until August then he went off the cliff.

As for the option question, I'm relatively sure we had a 2010 option on Barajas.

stevieboy22 - Friday, May 14 2010 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#215056) #

As for the option question, I'm relatively sure we had a 2010 option on Barajas.

Relative to what? (Wilnerism) Barajas did have an option for 2009, but not for 2010, the year of which they offered him arbitration..

Gregg was actually really good last year too, until August then he went off the cliff.

He also went off a cliff the first month of the season. It depends on how you want to use the phrase "very good," he had a very good stretch, but again, Vinne Chulk had some very good strecthes with Jays too... At the end of the year Gregg had an ERA of 4.73 and blew almost a quarter of his save opportunities (7/30) ..

I hope Gregg has a career year, but I'm not exactly bullish on him...

Spifficus - Friday, May 14 2010 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#215060) #

Actually, Billy Wagner is a great recent example of the option/arbitration question. He had an option for 2010 that was declined, and then Boston offered him arbitration to gain Atlanta's pick. Adding a touch of intrigue to the example, Wagner required that Boston decline the option as compensation for him waiving his no-trade clause. He was also believed to want them to not offer arbitration (to make him more attractive on the open market), but he dropped this requirement.

stevieboy22 - Friday, May 14 2010 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#215069) #

That makes sense..

Thanks Spifficus,,

Mike Green - Friday, May 14 2010 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#215070) #

Gwyn, Matt Klassen at fangraphs ran an item very similar to yours about Gregg today. A lawsuit is not out of the question. :)

There were other interesting numbers on fangraphs page about Gregg. He is apparently throwing many fewer pitches in the zone (now 38%) but batters are now swinging at more pitches out of the zone (30%). As a result, his walk rate has not gone up. I wonder whether this approach is sustainable (with the Ortiz at-bat in mind). Rivera's cutter does generate similar numbers, but that would seem to me to be an exception.

Gerry - Friday, May 14 2010 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#215071) #

Jim Callis has a mock draft up for subscribers. He has the Jays picking Michael Choice. He adds that Christian Colon's price tag might be too steep and Josh Sale could sneak into consideration.

TamRa - Friday, May 14 2010 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#215073) #

for clarification, when I said that Gregg was good for a while then went off the cliff, I was trying to say "let's not assume too much about his 2010 in May"

Mike Green - Friday, May 14 2010 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#215075) #

I came home to a 9-4 game. Disappointed that Brett Cecil had been battered about, I retreated to a very nice late evening dinner with my better half. When I returned, it was 15-10 to the good. Malivoire's gamay is now my rally wine.

Dave Till - Friday, May 14 2010 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#215076) #

I grew up watching baseball in a different era: when Hill and Lind hit back-to-back home runs, I was expecting the Texas pitcher to throw the next pitch at Vernon Wells. Seriously. I was wondering whether they were going to hit him in the head. I'm glad none of that happened.

One of my most vivid baseball memories is a start by Bill Gullickson of the Tigers against the Jays. The first batter was Devon White, who homered. Next up was Alomar, who also homered. Gullickson then threw the next pitch behind Joe Carter's head, plunking him on the helmet. (Throwing behind the head is the most dangerous thing a pitcher can do - the hitter's impulse is to duck away from the incoming ball.) Carter thought about charging the mound and didn't; Gullickson was ejected on the spot. It still gets me angry thinking about it, nearly 20 years later.

Magpie - Saturday, May 15 2010 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#215077) #

I remember the Gullickson game, and I was also expecting Wells (who had a three-run homer against the same pitcher in his previous at bat) to get knocked down as well.

TDIB: Marcum dominates Red Sox | 21 comments | Create New Account

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