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The Jays affiliates managed a winning night by going 2-1 that included a shootout, an extra innings win and a game postponed due to the G20 Summit.  I'm not buying one word of this "postponed due to rain BS". However, the best news of the night came from the mound in Dunedin.



Iowa 15 Las Vegas 10

Las Vegas, NV - I stayed up late for this?  It was arena league baseball at Cashman Field.  The I-Cubs booted a first-inning field goal but the 51's rallied for single runs in the first two innings and nailed a trey in the fourth for a 5-3 lead.  However, the I-Cubs responded with 12 runs over innings five through seven.  The 51's could only manage five runs in that span.  With a football-like score, it was only fitting that former Notre Dame wide receiver Jeff Samardzija got the victory with 1 2/3 innings of shutout ball.

Batting - Every 51's batter had at least one safety.  Brett Wallace lifted the heavy lumber with four hits and four RBI, Brian Dopirak had three hits and Luis Figueroa had a hit and two walks.  Jarrett Hoffpauir, Jeremy Reed and Chris Lubanski each had a pair of hits.   Unfortunately, Jarrett was not the best Hoffpauir despite a pair of RBI.  His brother Micah had a homer, a double, five RBI and three runs scored for the I-Cubs.  Reed was one runner short of leaving a G8 summit on the basepaths.

Running - Luis Figueroa was thrown out trying to pilfer second.

Pitching - Rei Gonzalez did not have one of his best outings but he was in position for the "W' after five innings.  He allowed six hits, including a homer, and a pair of walks while striking out four.  Lefty Jesse Carlson's bid for a return to Baseball North hit a major pothole as he was torched for seven runs in two-thirds of an inning.  He gave up seven hits and struck out one to take the loss but at least he didn't walk anybody.  I guess that's like getting totally drunk out of your skull and puking your guts out but at least you came home wearing your own pants!  Merkin Valdez also won't be making travel plans to Toronto anytime soon.  He was burned for four runs (three earned) over 1 1/3 innings as he yielded five hits and a walk.  Maybe that's like getting hammered and finding this on your backside the next day.  Lefty Zach Jackson was easily the best man on the mound for the 51's with two perfect innings and struck out half of the six batters he faced.  Of his 25 pitches, 18 were strikes.

Defence - Like the Cleveland Cavaliers, it was non-existent!  Wallace and Jesus Merchan each threw one away and Hoffpauir booted one but only one of the 15 runs the 51's surrendered was unearned.  The defence did turn one double play.

New Hampshire 3 Reading 2 (12 Innings)

Reading, PA -
The R-Phillies opened the scoring with one in the first but New Hampshire responded with singles in the fourth and fifth.  Reading battled back with a run in the seventh to tie the game at 2-2.  It remained tied until the twelfth when the F-Cats scored the winning run.

Batting - Shawn Bowman was the overtime hero with a solo blast in the top of the twelfth.  The New Westminster, B.C. native added a hit and a walk to his first long ball of the year.  Adam Calderone had two doubles off the wall and a run batted in while Darin Mastroianni had two hits and a ribbie.  The F-Cats were just 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position and left six men on base but winning covers a multitude of sins.  Adam Loewen, Brad Emaus and David Cooper were a combined 0-for-14 with a walk from Cooper.

Running - Mastroianni was picked off at second base in the fifth.

Pitching
- Randy Boone gave up a solo homer to almost-Jay Domonic Brown in the first inning but he rendered Reading illiterate (get it?) over the next five frames.  He allowed one run on three hits and a walk while striking out five and getting nine groundball outs.  He retired 14 of the last 15 hitters he faced.  Unfortunately, Boone saw his "W" go out the window when lefty Tim Collins served up a solo shot to Brian Stavisky to lead off the seventh.  Collins would bounce back by striking out the side.  Danny "Lord" Farquhar delivered two shutout innings in spite of two walks and a hit batter and Adrian Martin earned the win with three scoreless frames by working around a hit and three walks.  Farquhar and Martin each struck out a pair of hitters.

Defence - Jonathan Jaspe was victimized on a double steal behind the plate but he did peg one runner to finish 1-for-3 in that department.

Dunedin 7 Palm Beach 0

Palm Beach, FL - Single runs in the second, third and fourth inning got the D-Jays rolling and a four-run seventh put the game away against the Cardinals affiliates.

Batting - The 7-8-9 hitters provided most of the punch in this one.  Yan Gomes had a three-hit night and an RBI, Jon Talley had two hits and an RBI and Welinton Ramirez had two hits and two runs knocked in.  Kevin Ahrens and Michael McDade each got aboard twice with a hit and a walk and they scored twice.  Ahrens hit a double while McDade had an RBI.

Running - Ramirez was thrown out at second trying to stretch a single into a double.

Pitching - It was a man against boys, taking candy from a baby, almost like a rehabbing big leaguer schooling some minor league punks.  Some righty named Jesse Litsch fired seven shutout innings with only four hits and two walks allowed.  He also added five strikeouts and a dozen groundball outs.  Stuff like that could lead to a promotion.   If he wants to spend the rest of his career in Dunedin, he simply can't continue to pitch like that.  Anyways, keener lefty Boomer Potts pitched a clean eighth and Matt Daly had a shutout ninth in spite of three walks.  Extensive studies have shown that when the other team scores no runs, your chances of winning are better than average.

Defence - The D-Jays turned one double play.  The Cards did manage a stolen base against the Litsch-Gomes battery.

 

West Michigan @ Lansing - Postponed due to rain.

The game will be made up as part of a doubleheader May 25th.

 

*** 3 Stars!!! ***

3.  Shawn Bowman, New Hampshire

2.  Randy Boone, New Hampshire

1.  Jesse Litsch, Dunedin

Very honourable mention to Brett Wallace!!

Bowman's The Man & Randy's Dandy! | 44 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#214951) #
I was surprised that Litsch went 7 innings in his first outing since the surgery.  Maybe he was on a pitch count of 75, and he pulled a Maddux.
MatO - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#214952) #
I think Litsch has been throwing for a while in extended spring.  I read that he threw something like 4 innings a couple of weeks ago.
Gerry - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#214953) #

I saw Litsch throw about 40 pitches to minor leaguers in spring training back on April 1st or 2nd.  That's about 40 days ago.  He has probably pitched several times in extended games.

Litsch is always around the plate so it could be that the hitters were swinging early too.

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#214954) #
I missed the 4 inning stint.  In any event, I wonder if Litsch's next outing will be for Dunedin, New Hampshire or Las Vegas.  It is supposed to warmer in the Northeast by the weekend, so my money is on NH.

I did a quick check on the Las Vegas numbers, after yesterday's 35 hit affair.  The 51s and their opponents are putting up very impressive BABIPs but not too many balls are flying out of the yard.  Brett Wallace's 2 doubles, 2 singles and no strikeouts yesterday is a good adaptation to the environment. 
Gerry - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#214956) #
I believe Litsch will pitch again on Sunday for the Dunedin Jays.  I think it is a promotion day for kids so the local boy makes good angle should be good for business on that day.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#214958) #

Update:

MLB Team OPS as 1B:

  • 26) CLE: .603
  • 27) TEX:  .600
  • 28) PIT: .564
  • 29) BAL: .558
  • 30) TOR: .491

 

OPS of 1B currently in AAA:

  1. B.Wallace (23): 1.010
  2. D.Johnson (30): .977
  3. C.Richard (36):  .948
  4. S.Duncan (30):  .943
  5. C.Tracy (25): .878
Gerry - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#214959) #

Lansing won 7-1 today as Evan Crawford pitched eight strong innings.

New Hampshire are winning 9-2 in the sixth.  David Cooper has his first home run of the season.  Zach Stewart only went three innings.  The Fisher Cats nine runs have come on five hits.

John Northey - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#214961) #
Yeah, I figure June 1st is probably the arrival date for Wallace, even if those figures are Vegas inflated.

Assuming Overbay doesn't figure out which end of the bat to use before then of course.
92-93 - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#214965) #
Clarence seemed pretty clear about the situation with Overbay - as long as the team is winning at an acceptable pace (presumably around .500), changes like Wallace for Overbay aren't likely to happen. I'd be surprised if Wallace is up by June 1, considering the promises made to Lyle and the fact that future Super-2 dates might be later than everyone expects as more and more teams are becoming conscious of that extra year of arbitration.

I'm curious if all the people defending Snider's original spot in the batting order still feel he should be batting at the bottom of the order. It's been about 3 weeks already IMO that he's been having the best ABs on the team.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#214967) #
I don't really care whether Snider bats 9th or 7th or 5th.  As long as he is in the lineup almost every day, that is fine. 
Timbuck2 - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#214970) #
Very much agreed, Mike.  As long as he's in the lineup that's good enough for me.

As for Overbay - I can see 2 main reasons he's being given more chances to succeed this season than he has earned to date:

1) Everyone of course realizes that if he starts producing then his value goes up and we may be able to get a fair to decent prospect before the trade deadline.

2) Player Relations.  Management is trying to prove to the players that this is a good place to play (so they can spread the word around baseball).  Letting Overbay have so many chances to get out of his funk helps management look good to the players as they would want a similar opportunity if they were in the same position.
bpoz - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#214973) #
Tuesday in Boston, AA said that he expects Wallace to spend the entire season at LV. He also said he expects Overbey to improve.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#214974) #

I'm curious if all the people defending Snider's original spot in the batting order still feel he should be batting at the bottom of the order. It's been about 3 weeks already IMO that he's been having the best ABs on the team.

Snider's recent success after his very slow start probably tells us that Cito was absolutely right to keep Snider down there in a low pressure spot where he could just keep sticking with what was working until the hits finally started to drop in, no?

but yeah, now that he's not only having great at bats, but is also the best hitter on the team so far in May (maybe 2nd to Buck I'm not sure), it might be time to start considering moving him up in the order.

It was almost exactly at this point in one Carlos Delgado's first full season as a 24 year old that Cito moved the young slugger up from the bottom 3rd of the order and stuck him right in the 3-hole.....permanently.

 

Shane - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#214977) #

"Yeah, I figure June 1st is probably the arrival date for Wallace"

And where will Overbay be? They're not releasing him, or demoting him, and can't trade him. Wallace is staying right where he is for a long while, sadly or not.

TheBunk - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#214979) #
Overbay doesn't offer anything to the Blue Jays if he is still hitting like this come post trade deadline, they won't offer him arb. There is a very real possibility that he is released come mid season if he is still hitting this badly.
uglyone - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#214980) #

Why can't Overbay just turn into a quality bench bat for us for the rest of the year?  Like Lowell in Boston? why do we have to release him?

A bench with two bats like Overbay and Bautista, and defense  of those two along with JMac and Molina, starts turning that bench into a real strength, IMO.

 

TheBunk - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#214981) #
Sure that's a nice bench but assuming we are out of it in August and September and Overbay is still hitting abysmally, why should he be taking up a spot on the bench when he won't be a Blue Jay next year? No point in a strong bench for two months when it doesn't mean anything and he could be taking a spot away from a young future Blue Jay.

This is all contingent on him continuing his struggles of course so who knows.
Shane - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#214984) #

"Why can't Overbay just turn into a quality bench bat for us for the rest of the year?"

Why not? Well, if he didn't like platooning last year, how is he going to feel about being a bench player this year going into FA?

 

uglyone - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#214987) #

not sure any vet is happy when the day comes where he becomes a bench player. I know that Lowell's not so charmed with being a bench player this year. I'm sure Papi is pretty steamed that he's becoming one too.

poor baby has to deal with it, and make the great epic sacrifice of collecting his $7 mil and playing out the contract he signed in the role where he can most benefit the team.

Chuck - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#214988) #

poor baby has to deal with it

You're calling Overbay a baby in anticipation of how you believe he would respond to a lesser role? Why not just wait for the scenario to play out and comment on the facts at the time?

John Northey - Wednesday, May 12 2010 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#214993) #
Overbay is a sunk cost. If he keeps hitting like this he won't be getting the Jays anything as a free agent as he won't even be a B level free agent. So either the Jays write off his salary and give a potentially superior player a shot or they write off any offense from first base. Either way you are paying out that $7 million and the net financial cost of bringing up Wallace will be the league minimum he'll make, assuming no one picks up Overbay.
TamRa - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 12:16 AM EDT (#214998) #
Snider's recent success after his very slow start probably tells us that Cito was absolutely right to keep Snider down there in a low pressure spot

Totally disagree.

it's a textbook case of a no-lose position.

if Snider keeps hitting poorly, no one can argue he shouldn't be hitting in a place where he'll do the least damage

If he starts hitting well, clearly he benefited from the protection.

either way, Cito comes out believing he made the right move, even though there's is no proof at all that Snider wouldn't have hit well from opening day if he'd been hitting - for instance - seventh all along, and certainly no evidence that being where he is caused the recent success.

in fact, when some said "batting inth is messing with his head" (Wilner, for one) some argued that where you hit shouldn't matter and that was silly - if that is true, it's just as true when snider heats up that batting him ninth didn't make that happen.


Spifficus - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 08:08 AM EDT (#215004) #

If hitting 9th is such a mental trial, then Snider's overcoming this is good for developing his Baseball Intangibles and Character, no? If he's the sort to get bent out of shape over hitting 9th with less than a year's experience, then he's exactly the sort who needs to bat 9th until he's over it.

Of course, I don't actually believe that - I'm of the school of thought that it's most important that he's in the lineup every day and the lineup position is window dressing. I nearly had an aneurysm when Snider sat vs Saunders, the second time vs a lefty, and Overbay in an even worse slump was in the lineup. It didn't represent a trend, though, so all was forgiven pretty quickly.

TamRa - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#215010) #
my opinion is that lineup construction should reflect whatever philosophy you think maes for a good line-up (speed at the top, then contact, then power....or right/left alternation...or whatever) and within reason, that should trump other factors (such as age and experience and so forth) and, by the way, I'm not a experienced baseball professional but I don't get the notion that a player gets "messed up" if you move him in the lineup. Don't you want a guy to play to his strengths, whatever they are, wherever he hits? why should that matter?

I don't and never have thought Snider should be moved up because he'll be "messed up" hitting ninth - i thought that a player with his skill set wasn't really suited to that spot based on what i think about lineup construction (which might well be wrong but whatever)


uglyone - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#215014) #

If people think it's so important for the team that Snider hits higher in the lineup, isn't that proof positive that hitting higher in the lineup is a "more important" role and thus a "higher pressure" role? If you think where Snider hits in the lineup matters to the team, I have a hard time understanding the argument that moving him higher in the lineup WOULDN'T put more pressure on him.

As for hitting low in the lineup somehow hurting his confidence - I can't see that at all. As the 2nd youngest hitter in baseball, he's happy enough to be in the show, and I can't believe for a second that he actually feels insulted. 

But you're right in saying that there's no real way we can "prove" that hitting Snider low in the lineup has helped him.....but I think it's utterly logical that starting a kid low in the lineup would obviously give him the best opportunity to get comfortable in the bigs before moving up in the lineup....and I think the history of baseball tells us that most kids starting at the bottom and earning their way up the lineup is the best way to go.

And, of course, we have the history of Cito Gaston....who, as hitting coach and manager of this team, has had a surprisingly large number of stud lefty slugging prospects come up under his watch.....and from where I'm sitting, all of McGriff, Olerud, Delgado, Green, Lind, and now Snider look to have turned out alright (and, surprisingly, I can't think of one of them who HASN'T), so I think I'd have to defer to Cito's judgement on this matter......especially since Snidey is really starting to find his stride, and since I can't really believe that hitting in the bottom of the order for the first couple of months of his first full season as a 22 year old could ever hurt a player in any way.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#215017) #
"Snidey" doesn't work for me...too close to Snidely.  Where have all the nicknames gone anyway?  Lind, Hill, Wells, Snider, Marcum, Romero, Cecil, even Gregg, all lack a nickname.  Vernon "Deep" Wells?  Travis "Torpedo" Snider? I don't know. 



uglyone - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#215018) #

I like "Lunchbox".

If's amusingly deprecating, but it indicates a hard-working blue-collar approach....and, let's face it, the kid IS built like a lunchbox.

Sano - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#215022) #
I'd go for Travis 'Tank' Snider myself. 
Mike Green - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#215023) #
Tank Snider works on a couple of levels.  Sold.
Matthew E - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#215024) #

Let me say once again how uncomfortable I am about us, people who do not know the players personally, giving the ballplayers nicknames.

Might as well call the guy Brocktoon.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#215025) #
Fans have been giving players nicknames for eons.  We look for something that describes something about the player and their game, and hopefully sounds good.  Like Sudden Sam McDowell and Stretch McCovey.  Tank Snider describes his body type and gives a visual image somewhat comparable to the low screaming line drives he hits. 

At one point, fans were giving ballplayers nicknames like Wimpy and Twinkletoes.  That is a different story.

Dewey - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#215033) #
I'm with Matthew E. on this.  Why is a nickname needed at all?   Carlos was just Carlos, and that was plenty good enough.  Let Travis just be Travis.  That should be plenty good, too.
92-93 - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#215036) #

This idea that as long as Snider is in the lineup everyday it doesn't matter where he hits in the order is utter nonsense, unless the people with this opinion NEVER care about a batting order. For the same reason you want Snider playing everyday, I want him near the heart of the order.

but I think it's utterly logical that starting a kid low in the lineup would obviously give him the best opportunity to get comfortable in the bigs before moving up in the lineup....and I think the history of baseball tells us that most kids starting at the bottom and earning their way up the lineup is the best way to go.

I'm sure many managers have had different managerial styles over the years, but it's a hard sell to pretend this is common practice nowadays. To touch on some recent young studs, Evan Longoria, Justin Upton, and Matt Wieters were all in the heart of the order by the time they had as many MLB ABs under their belt as Snider did heading into the year. It took Bobby Cox about 3 weeks to get Heyward out of the 7 spot, and at least there he wasn't batting LAST. If Snider's development was far enough along in the organization's eyes that it was time to start burning his service time at the MLB level (despite the fact this team wasn't expected to compete) then he should have been batting ahead of John Buck, Jose Bautista, and Alex Gonzalez from the start of the season (unless JB was leading off), 3 guys with proven track records that say they just aren't very good hitters.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#215037) #
If the Jays of 2010 were in the same position as the Rays of 2008, I might feel differently about it.  It is true that in a tight pennant race, I'd rather have Snider batting higher in the order.  It might make a difference of 1/2 a game or something in the standings.  The situation reminds me more of Jesse Barfield, 1985 than of the current crop of batting stars.  Snider has had a particular problem with the strikeout as Barfield did.  He seems to be getting that under control.  Bobby Cox batted Barfield eighth most of the time in 1985. 

Justin Upton was batting down in the order until he opened 2008 hitting .415/.447/.805 after 2 weeks.  That will capture a manager's attention.

Spifficus - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#215038) #

This idea that as long as Snider is in the lineup everyday it doesn't matter where he hits in the order is utter nonsense

I thought it was generally accepted that batting order was one of the most blown out of proportion topics in baseball. If I recall, it means something in extreme examples, but most of the time (especially when dealing with one person) it's insignificant compared to so many other factors.

There's a fun lineup simulator at Baseball Musings to find a presumed optimal lineup (based on two criteria - OBP and SLG). I've filled it in with the ZIPS updated forecasts from Fangraphs. It's rudimentary, but it begins to illustrate the point as I remember it.

92-93 - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#215039) #

If the Jays of 2010 were in the same position as the Rays of 2008, I might feel differently about it.

The Blue Jays have the exact same record as that team, but I guess when you label yourself as non-competitive by slashing payroll 40% over 2 years and playing home games in your opponent's ballpark, it shouldn't come as a surprise when your fans stay away and decide before the season you can't compete, and continue to hold that line even after some positive results. I don't see how the Rays of early 2008 are any different to the Jays of early 2010.

Justin Upton was batting down in the order until he opened 2008 hitting .415/.447/.805 after 2 weeks.  That will capture a manager's attention.

Incredible - if you're going to defend, at least have it make some sense (and be factually correct) and not ignore my previous point. He was batting 6th by April 6th, and as I already pointed out, was well into the heart of the order by the time he had as many MLB PAs as Snider did heading into 2010 - Upton had less than half the 356 PA Snider carried into 2010. And even if he was moved because of 2 weeks of scorching play - Snider is hitting .375/.412/.729 over the last 2 weeks as the rest of the team has been pretty dismal, save for some unexpected and quite welcomed production from Lewis & Buck

92-93 - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#215040) #

I thought it was generally accepted that batting order was one of the most blown out of proportion topics in baseball.

Precisely why you shouldn't have removed the last half of my sentence, which was -  unless the people with this opinion NEVER care about a batting order.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#215041) #
The difference between the Rays of 2008 and the Jays of 2010 is talent on hand, and has absolutely nothing to do with fan support.  When Longoria arrived in late April, with the Rays having a winning record (thanks to a healthy boost from Lady Luck), it was pretty clear that the Rays had a decent chance at the playoffs.  I said so at the time, and I was not alone in that view.

Could the Jays win in 2010?  Sure.  Zep and Litsch return and make for a very good 1-5 rotation.  Emaus gets called up and adds a decent bat and glove at third base.  Wallace takes over from Overbay.  Jeroloman takes over from Molina and splits the job with Buck. But none of this was planned for in the off-season.  With the Rays in 2008, it was easy to see that the club was planning to compete that year beginning in the off-season once the Bartlett/Garza trade was completed.

Spifficus - Thursday, May 13 2010 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#215043) #
I probably glossed over it because I think that if you have to qualify 'nonsense' like that, then 'nonsense' probably isn't the word you want. Of course, that depends on why you set aside the issue of batting order. Is it because you accept it's a reasonable argument, or is it because you view it as out to lunch and therefor in its own level of nonsense?

Of course, there are other points of view that make your proclamation of 'utter nonsense' nonsense itself. Personally, I want Snider to play every day because I think it's paramount to his development (and in turn the progress of the team) that he get playing time. If you're also arguing from a development standpoint, then you'd have to acknowledge there's a good argument for hitting him in the leadoff spot (getting him the most at bats possible) or in the middle of the lineup (get him used to the role he's going to have). There's also a good argument for keeping him away from other lefties - give him an opportunity for more success by keeping him away from lefty specialists. Conversly, there's an argument for hitting Lewis, Lind, Snider and Overbay all in a row - get him lots of ABs against specialists so he can develop against them (this is the Tough Love approach). Given these options (and others as well, including Gaston's 'start at the bottom rung on the ladder' approach), I'm happy being a batting order agnostic. The important part (getting him in the lineup in the first place) is already done.

If you're arguing from a win-now standpoint, well... Are you going to start strictly platooning Snider? There are better options vs lefties than him. Bautista could take his spot when EE gets back (Ruiz would go in for Overbay). Of course, for that you'd need to think this team as currently constructed has a good chance at getting to 95 wins and needs to maximize every drop of winningness it can. I don't think you're advocating the win-now model, but there was a bit of ambiguity, so I'm throwing this out there just in case.

Either way, there are enough legitimate choices to be open for debate, and not nonsense. This actually reminds me of my idea for when Wallace comes up and settles into the lineup (and assuming his ability to handle lefties survives the transition). I'd hit him in front of Lind. I believe Wallace and Lind would be less vulnerable to lefties than Wallace and Snider, or especially Lind and Snider. I also think that opposing managers would be forced to bring their best lefty in for those two. Get a couple hitters separation between Lind and Snider, and it also makes it more likely Snider won't see a lefty. Of course, this is all down the road, when the personnel will probably change enough to render the idea moot.

uglyone - Friday, May 14 2010 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#215045) #
but it's a hard sell to pretend this is common practice nowadays. To touch on some recent young studs, Evan Longoria, Justin Upton, and Matt Wieters were all in the heart of the order by the time they had as many MLB ABs under their belt as Snider did heading into the year.

I don't think that's a hard sell at all, really.

I think your argument depends on sticking dogmatically  to "total major league at bats" as your only qualifier as to when a player is moved up the order, and ignore other possible qualifiers such as "age", "performance", and "total at bats in the player's first full season"...all of which I think are probably more important qualifiers than simply "total career at bats".

To look only at your 3 examples for comparison:

1) Evan Longoria - he pounded the ball right away as a 22 year old in his first full year, starting his career wth a .915ops April, and moved up from 6th to 4th in the order over the course of the season.

2) Matt Weiters - as a 23 year old in his first full year last year, he played the first couple of months in the 8-hole, 159ab in total. He was steadily moved up in the order only after those 159ab....and was moved up slowly because his performance wasn't really earning a drastic promotion.

3) Justin Upton - as a rookie, he spent 74 of his 140ab in the bottom 3 spots in the order. the next season, he started at the bottom and gradually worked his way up again #9 -13ab, #8 - 33ab, #7 -58ab, #6 - 83ab, #5 - 98ab, #4 - 9ab, #3 - 16ab, #2 - 45ab. In his 3rd season at age 22 (his first full season), he once again started at the bottom of the lineup.....but pounded the ball so well at the bottom of the order that he moved quickly up through every slot from #9-#4 in his first 82ab posting near a .900ops, before settling into the 3 spot for good for his final 444ab.

4) To add one more relevant example, we can look at Adam Lind under Cito......starting in 2008 when Cito first came back. He had Lind start in the 9-hole, and as Lind was hitting well over .800ops, moved him steadily up over a couple of hundred at bats before settling in the 5-hole. The next season, Cito started Lind in that 5-hole and then after two months of poundage, moved him into the 3-hole for good.

I don't think it's a hard sell at all that this is common practice nowadays - because it sure seems to me that all these guys started at the bottom of the lineup and were either moved up gradually, or hit so damn well that they simply HAD to move up quickly.

And of course, we can add in one Carlos Delgado, who in his 3rd partial season but first full year at age 24 under Cito Gaston, started in the 7-8 spots for the first couple of months before being permanently moved up into the 3-hole June of that year.

Now I guess you could argue that the "9-hole" is significantly different than the 7 or 8 hole...although I wouldn't personally.  But even if we argue that, we have to realize that the guys that were originally slotted in as 7 and 8 hitters in this lineup having been posting .900ops this year, which makes it kind of hard to move them down the lineup

And if we want to be pedantic about it, let's note exactly what spot in the order Snider has hit in this year:

#7 - 13ab
#8 - 41ab
#9 - 58ab
92-93 - Saturday, May 15 2010 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#215088) #

The difference between the Rays of 2008 and the Jays of 2010 is talent on hand, and has absolutely nothing to do with fan support.  When Longoria arrived in late April, with the Rays having a winning record (thanks to a healthy boost from Lady Luck), it was pretty clear that the Rays had a decent chance at the playoffs.  I said so at the time, and I was not alone in that view.

I have a hard time accepting that a team coming off a 66 win season had more talent on hand than the current edition of the Blue Jays. There's nothing to suggest that, and to say that when Longoria came up on April 12th they had a "decent shot at the playoffs" is quite strange coming from someone who doesn't think the Blue Jays will be competitive before 2014-2015.

Mike Green - Saturday, May 15 2010 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#215094) #
Here's what the Rays had.  Their ascent began when they moved to Upton to centerfield in mid-season 2007.  He adapted and it was obvious by the end of the year that he would be an asset rather than a liability (at short) the following year.  They moved Delmon Young (with a world of potential but no actual performance) for Garza and Bartlett in the off-season, acquired Navarro, Aybar, Floyd, Gross and Howell for bupkes.  They had the best minor league system in the majors (courtesy to a great extent of all those previous last place finishes). 

Entering 2008, the outfield of Crawford, Upton and Gross figured to be good.  The infield of Aybar (then Longoria), Bartlett, Iwamura, Pena and Navarro figured to be good.  Floyd figured to be OK.  The rotation of Kazmir, Garza, Shields, Sonnanstine and Jackson figured to be very good.  The bullpen figured to be OK with Percival, Howell and Wheeler at the top.  Obviously nobody was predicting a 97 win season, and nobody figured that Zobrist would become Zobrist. 

The difference between the Rays of 2008 and the Jays of 2010 couldn't have been clearer.  The Rays were adding pieces during the off-season to help them compete right away.  The Jays of 2010 have been building for another year, and spent the second-half of 2009 subtracting rather than adding. 

uglyone - Saturday, May 15 2010 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#215099) #
Just for interest's sake, a very crude comparison between the teams and their most recent performance heading into that season.....the 2008 Rays with their 2007 numbers v. the 2010 Jays with their 2009 numbers....in roughly the batting order and pitching usage they were projected to, with some minor adjustments for better player comparability (i.e. longoria-snider):

* = missed previous season, numbers as of last healthy season



2B A.Iwamura (29): 559pa, 105ops+  --- RF J.Bautista (29): 404pa, 101ops+
LF C.Crawford (26): 624pa, 117ops+ --- 2B A.Hill (28): 734pa, 117ops+
CF B.Upton (23): 548pa, 136ops+ --- DH A.Lind (26): 654pa, 144ops+
1B C.Pena (30): 612pa, 172ops+ --- CF V.Wells (31): 684pa, 88ops+
DH J.Gomes (27): 394pa, 105ops+ ---1B L.Overbay (33): 500pa, 122ops+
RF G.Gross (28): 210pa, 96ops+ --- 3B E.Encarnacion (27): 338pa, 92ops+
3B E.Longoria (22): 0pa, 0ops+ --- LF T.Snider (22): 276pa, 98ops+
C D.Navarro (24): 434pa, 70ops+ --- C J.Buck (29): 202pa, 103ops+
SS J.Bartlett (28): 570pa, 89ops+  --- SS A.Gonzalez (33): 429pa, 64ops+

PH G.Floyd (35): 322pa, 102ops+ --- PH R.Ruiz (32): 130pa, 166ops+
OF E.Hinske (30): 218pa, 83ops+ --- OF F.Lewis (29): 333pa, 92ops+
IF B.Zobrist (27): 105pa, 4ops+ --- IF J.McDonald (35): 156pa, 72ops+
C S.Riggans (28): 10pa, -46ops+ --- C J.Molina (34): 155pa, 51ops+
OF R.Baldelli (26): 150pa, 65ops+ --- 1B B.Wallace (23): 0pa, 0ops+




SP S.Kazmir (24): 206.2ip, 130era+ --- SP S.Marcum (28)*: 151.1ip, 125era+
SP J.Shields (26): 215.0ip, 117era+ --- SP J.Litsch (25)*: 176.0ip, 118era+
SP M.Garza (24): 83.0ip, 117era+ --- SP M.Rzepczysnki (24): 61.1ip, 119era+
SP E.Jackson (24): 161.0ip, 79era+ --- SP R.Romero (25): 178.0ip, 101era+
SP A.Sonnanstine (25): 130.2ip, 77era+ --- SP B.Morrow (25): 69.2ip, 99era+
SP J.Hammel (25): 85.0ip, 74era+ --- SP B.Cecil (23): 93.1ip, 82era+

CL T.Percival (38): 40.0ip, 246era+ --- CL J.Frasor (32): 57.2ip, 174era+
SU C.Bradford (33): 64.2ip, 139era+ --- SU S.Downs (34): 46.2ip, 141era+
SU G.Glover (31): 77.1ip, 93era+ --- SU K.Gregg (32): 68.2ip, 96era+
MR J.Reyes (37): 60.2ip, 93era+ --- MR S.Camp (34): 79.2ip, 124era+
MR T.Miller (35): 46.1ip, 92era+ --- MR B.Tallet (32): 160.2ip, 82era+
MR D.Wheeler (30): 74.2ip, 85era+  --- MR C.Janssen (28): 40.0ip, 75era+
MR J.Howell (25): 51.0ip, 60era+ --- MR J.Roenicke (27): 31.0ip, 84era+
MR G.Balfour (30): 24.2ip, 60era+ --- MR J.Accardo (28): 24.2ip, 172era+



Clearly there was good reason to be more optimistic on those Rays heading into that season - specifically the massive season that Pena had compared to the useless season Wells had coming in, and perhaps more importantly the lack of any Jays starter with the combination of track record and health coming in to project out like Kaz and Shields did that season.

That being said, a couple of early season trends this year  - Wells being awesome again, Marcum coming back to his healthy best, and some good news on the Litsch recovery front combined with a big step forward from Ricky - definitely make me feel a bit better about those weak spots in the comparisons coming in....for the time being, at least.

92-93 - Monday, May 17 2010 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#215184) #

This isn't me trying to get the last word in, because I want to put an end to this silliness. However, let me just point out that I can say all the same nice things about the current Jays roster as you said about the Rays, nearly word for word. The only thing I can't lean on is the consensus top minor league system, about which I couldn't care any less - Hill, Lind, Romero, Marcum, Litsch, Rzepczysnki, etc...all received little to no love from the prospect experts and have turned out to be pretty valuable MLBers. The bottom line is the 2007 Rays won SIXTY SIX games, so for anybody to pretend they had a legitimate shot at contention on April 12th is quite strange, regardless of what you or your buddies thought about them heading into 2008. I felt the exact same way about the people pretending the Mariners as currently constructed were a playoff team this year or that the Orioles were on the verge of something special.

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