Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Week 5 - Meet Me at the Scene of the Crime

Week 5 - Meet Me at the Scene of the Crime

I remember everything
I knew all along we were pushing our luck

Back to Fenway....

(Before anything else, I'm a musician, "Meet Me at the Scene of the Crime" is one of my songs, and those are the opening lines. How could I resist?)

You will recall last season's surprising 27-14 getaway. Some people (that would be me, hello!) saw the soft early season schedule (no games with AL East opponents until mid-May) as a chance for a very young and untested pitching staff to find themselves before taking on the Beasts of the East. Most people, naturally enough, saw it as simply postpoNing the inevitable Day of Reckoning. They were right, and I was... actually, we'll never know. By the time they got to Boston, they weren't even close to half a million strong. Of the five pitchers who had begun the season in the rotation, two were disabled and one had been sent back to the minors. Brian Tallet, Brett Cecil, and Bobby Ray went up against the Red Sox. It didn't work out, although Tallet pitched a fine game. The Jays were swept by the Red Sox. They went on to Atlanta and were swept again, and then to Baltimore where they were swept yet again. The ghastly 0-9 road trip concluded with one of the season's more discouraging defeats, as Roy Halladay entrusted an 8-3 eighth inning lead to his bullpen. Jesse Carlson (mainly) and Scott Downs gave it all away, sending the game into extra innings. Aaron Hill homered to put the Jays ahead in the 11th, but Brian Wolfe allowed a three-run walkoff blast by Nolan Reimold to end the game, the road trip, and a whole lot else.

I saw it coming
I thought I'd better keep my big mouth shut

That was then, this is now. There won't be an 0-9 road trip this time around - the team already has a winning record for this road trip tucked into the bank (your 2010 Blue Jays, second best road record in the major leagues.... say what?)... and these Red Sox have yet to be the Red Sox most of us expected to see. There have been injuries in the outfield and on the mound, and David Ortiz.... well, Terry Francona has been platooning and pinch hitting at the designated hitter spot.

Which is not Terry Francona's normal method of operation, by the way. I decided it would be interesting to look at in-game substitutions and pinch-hitting in the AL - I mean, we all talk (myself included) about how Cito Gaston and other managers run their ships - do any of us actually know anything? Really? As Sherlock Holmes pointed out, it is a capital mistake to theorize in the absence of data. So I thought I'd actually get the data and give it an intense scrute. Alas, the scrutinizing is still going on. But I'll tell you this:

The 2010 Red Sox lead the AL in pinch hitters - Francona's used 23 pinch hitters in 32 games. At this rate, he'd use 116 pinch hitters over the course of the season, and lead the league by a fair margin. Over the course of his tenure in Boston, Francona has generally been right around the league average in pinch hitters used, with the notable exception of 2008 when he used the fewest pinch hitters of any team in baseball.

I've looked at pinch hitting in the AL since 1989, and in those 21 seasons just three teams have used 40 pinch hitters or less in a season. One of those teams was the 2006 Texas Rangers, who used just 38 pinch hitters all year long. The other two teams were both managed by Cito Gaston. They were, naturally, the Blue Jays of 1992 (32 pinch hitters) and 1993 (40 pinch hitters.) Anyway, more on this in a few days...

I was wondering how long we would go on like this...

You might think this would be a good time to face the Red Sox. You would be wrong - there is no good time to face the Red Sox. Despite their problems, they strolled into the Dome a few weeks back, and swept the Jays in three tight ball games. They may have saved a little dignity with last night's win, but still - they've just had their butts kicked, in their own house, by the Evil Empire. They will be in a foul frame of mind. Plus, I saw Dana Eveland pitch against them in Toronto. It was not attractive - he pitched like he was afraid of what might happen, and he may have been right. The line drives were just flying around the ball yard - even the outs were impressively struck.

And they're the freaking Red Sox.

So... be afraid! I know I am!

Posted by Magpie on Monday, May 10 2010 @ 06:00 AM EDT.

Week 5 - Meet Me at the Scene of the Crime | 19 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

scottt - Monday, May 10 2010 @ 06:50 AM EDT (#214832) #

Eveland will go against Dice-K who has given up 11 runs in 10 innings in his only 2 starts this year.
That sounds like a good match-up.

greenfrog - Monday, May 10 2010 @ 07:56 AM EDT (#214833) #

The Red Sox are seemingly always dangerous. And despite all the talk about Boston's imminent demise, they're playing .500 baseball in early May. Watch out. However, the Jays don't have to face (a) Lester and (b) Wakefield (at least, not as a starter). Let's just hope this isn't the series that Beckett and Dice-K get untracked.

Plus, this is round 2 of the tale of the SS tape / A-Gon-Scutaro smackdown. Royce Clayton and Julio Lugo have long since left the building.

Mylegacy - Monday, May 10 2010 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#214844) #

Magpie - you little pretty-shiny-trinket-collecting fool you - that was as excellent piece! Bravo - it was so good I almost forgot I detest musicians. Obviously, I'll have to give you a permanent exception to my rule that "all musicians are mindless dweebs" - no need to thank me.

As to us going into the Den of Ali Francona and his 25 Thieves - I too have shivers of concern. How long can we keep hitting homers like we've all become the Babe? How long until Vernon wakes up and returns to his age old confidence that he can hit balls thrown half way between first and the plate? How long before the young pitchers decide to start a collective June Swoon a few weeks early?

I only know that if that I want to be watching when Pedroia screws himself so deep into the Fenway batters box that they decide not to dig him up but merely to pave over where he went underground. I hates that man - I purely - comprehensively hates that little runt. Did I mention I was not keen on Boston's second baseman?

Magpie - Monday, May 10 2010 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#214845) #

You mean Ratboy?

Nick Holmes - Monday, May 10 2010 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#214850) #

He is just a rat.
http://www.secretlair.com/ratboy/

MatO - Monday, May 10 2010 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#214855) #

LV is playing an afternoon game in Tacoma and Brett Wallace continues to kill LHP with a 3 run HR off Garret Olson.

Magpie - Monday, May 10 2010 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#214856) #

Eveland will go against Dice-K

I wish. It's nine Boston hitters he's really going up against...

uglyone - Monday, May 10 2010 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#214858) #

I did a little search, and I believe it checks out........an interesting factoid.....

The Jays currently have the worst 1B performance in all of baseball with a .513ops.

The Jays also currently have the best hitting 1B prospect (i.e. 25 years or younger) in AAA with Wallace (.983ops midway through this afternoon's game).

How long can that last, really? Would seem kind of silly to keep that up for much longer, no?

and on an additional note, Mills is pitching another beaut this afternoon and our MLB bullpen still stinks.

Mike Green - Monday, May 10 2010 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#214859) #

Brett Wallace is hitting .296/.361/.597 with 34 strikeouts in 132 PAs in an extreme hitter's context. For a first baseman learning the position, that does not scream promotion.

Brad Mills didn't have his good control today, but has worked his way out of it. For the season, he's thrown 41 innings, walked 17, struck out 41 and given up 2 homers. He now has 6 very successful AA starts and 21 successful AAA starts. You could move him up to the major league bullpen at any time.

John Northey - Monday, May 10 2010 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#214860) #

Just looking at the Jays page on B-R and boy is Overbay ugly this year. 58 OPS+ - 177/271/301. The only guy doing worse is Ruiz at 143/143/286 OPS+ of 15. Even McDonald & Molina are out hitting them. For May (so far) Overbay is at 194/242/226 over 33 PA.

Everyone goes through slumps, but these guys are in their age 32 season and it has been shown that guys with poor speed tend to age very, very quickly at 32. Their upside is minimal given their track records so it is getting towards the time to bail and cut bait.

Dopirak, who many felt deserved a shot, is hitting just 210/243/360 so far (107 PA) while Wallace is at 294/361/597 over 133 PA. Hoffpauir is at 327/409/473.

So, Wallace is doing well and should be getting a call soon I suspect. I'm betting Overbay/Ruiz will be given the rest of May to work it out, with Wallace arriving on June 1st unless something happens. At that point Overbay will be released as the Jays write off another JP contract.

mathesond - Monday, May 10 2010 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#214861) #

it has been shown that guys with poor speed tend to age very, very quickly

Ironic, huh?

Chuck - Monday, May 10 2010 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#214863) #

At that point Overbay will be released as the Jays write off another JP contract.

Contest question: what's Overbay's next team? I predict Texas. The Mets may be a candidate as well, though the whole I Like Ike thing has been going very well.

bpoz - Monday, May 10 2010 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#214865) #

I did some counting about 2009.
Teams Wins Loss
NL 7 11
NY 6 12
TB 4 14
Bos 7 11

Total 24 48 = 72
Others 51 39 = 90
Season 75 87 = 162
Roy H 6 11 = 17 The teams W/L record when he pitched NOT his W/L record against them.
One obvious conclusion Inter league, NY, TB, Bos killed us.
While Bos swept us in the 1st series we swept them in the last series which was also 3 games. Then Baltimore swept us in the last series also 3 games.
A good computer user would not have gone through the 2009 calender (3 times for accuracy) like I did BUT I saw stuff like the strange starters Bos and NY threw at us late in the year (all pitching staffs get beat up?). Buchholz was very good against us AND lots more stuff.
Well I am really looking forward to playing our 2009 nemesis to see what we got this year and 2011...
YAH I am ready for battle, dont quit no matter how much the pain. LETS KICK ASS !!!

greenfrog - Monday, May 10 2010 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#214871) #

"Brett Wallace is hitting .296/.361/.597 with 34 strikeouts in 132 PAs in an extreme hitter's context. For a first baseman learning the position, that does not scream promotion."

Personally, I think a June 1 (or later) recall makes sense, but the above stats suggest to me that Wallace is getting pretty close to being ready. The strikeouts are high but not exorbitantly so, especially considering he's only been at Vegas for a month (his K:PA ratio this year is almost exactly the same as Snider's career minor-league K:PA ratio of around 0.25. Ryan Howard's was about 0.28 in the minors).

Does anyone know how much a player's OPS is inflated by playing at Vegas and/or in the PCL? Fwiw, Wallace has a pretty even home (1.025 OPS) and road (.935) split.

Sano - Monday, May 10 2010 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#214872) #

Greenfrog- Yes, somebody posted a conversion site of some kind for PCL stats this past week. I've just tried to find it searching BB's archive but unfortunately no luck. I believe it translated Wallace's stats down to somewhere around .270/.330/.450 or something like that.

TamRa - Monday, May 10 2010 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#214874) #

Contest question: what's Overbay's next team?

Seattle.

Also, I doubt VERY seriously he's cut lose (as in released) before August. AA will not lightly disregard the possibility he'll have at least some trade value in July and Cito will lobby hard not to disrespect a veteran (and from the way he speaks in public, AA also has problems with doing that)

greenfrog - Monday, May 10 2010 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#214876) #

With all due respect to the solid baseball the Jays have been playing this year, that was a putrid pitching performance by Morrow (the Hill error on a critical play certainly didn't help). It's actually impressive that the Jays scored 6 runs when their 2-5 hitters went 0 for 16.

I thought Cito should have pulled him before he faced Ortiz (it was obvious that Morrow didn't have it tonight--he looked really uncomfortable on the mound), but I guess Cito was doing the old-school "we're not going to rescue you every time you get wild" thing.

On the other hand, great job by the bullpen to keep the Jays in the game.

Lastly: I thought one of the key ABs was after the Jays pulled ahead 4-2 and had two on and one out in the 2nd inning. They had the chance to pile on at least one more run against Lackey, but the rally fizzled out. Gotta take advantage when you have the opportunity.

brent - Monday, May 10 2010 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#214878) #

Ugh.. 175 pitches by the Jays today. That's not how you want your first game in Boston to go.

John Northey - Tuesday, May 11 2010 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#214898) #

The good news about those 175 pitches is they were done by Morrow (who has a few days to recover) and just 3 relievers who are all at the back of the bullpen (Roenicke, Lewis, and Janssen) giving the core guys (Frasor, Downs, Gregg, and Camp) a much needed day off (all threw on Sunday, 25/16/19/25 pitches each respectively).

A smart move would be to send down Roenicke to AAA (I'd assume he has options) and call up someone to eat innings if needed today and tomorrow. Purcey (15 pitches) & Accardo (36 pitches) were used yesterday so they would be out, as would be Henn (22) and Mills (100 pitches). Jesse Carlson has just 1 walk this season (15 2/3 IP, 20 H, 1 BB, 13 SO, 9 ER) and might be ready - he's been hittable but just 1 HR given up so I'd feel somewhat safe assuming those 20 were not all line drives.

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