Nice to have Ray (along with Zep, Litsch, Mills, Drabek, etc) as a reserve option if the Jays need an extra starter at some point. Somehow I don't think Tallet will be back in the rotation any time soon.

Mastroianni is really starting to impress me.  He now has a .411 OBP (.864 OPS) in AA with 14 SB.  He's seems to be improving off of last year's .398 OBP and 70 SB between A+ and AA.  Perhaps we're only a year or two away from Wells moving over to RF.  Mastroianni looks like he could be a great lead-off hitter for the Jays.

I like Mastroianni quite a bit, but he will be 25 in August.  With speed being such a big part of his game, his clock is ticking.

One of the things that is really ironic about this year is how many obvious assumptions that most of us widely shared on the first of April are not quite so obvious on May 10.  Several Jays regulars were no better than placeholders for the prospects deep in the minors that would vastly outperform them within a couple of years.  Examples of these also-rans (along with their future replacements) were:

• John Buck at C (Arencibia, Jerolman, d'Arnaud)
• Gonzalez at SS (Hachevarria)
• Bautista at both 3B and RF (possibly Emaus at 3B, no dominant candidate for the outfield)
  
• Wells both as clean-up hitter and as CF (no dominant candidate in the minors for either of these roles)
• Overbay at 1B (Wallace)

Two members of the starting nine (Hill and Lind) were expected to come out of the starting gate strongly, with no reason why they would not perform impressively again in 2010, at least within shooting distance of their big years last year.

The greatest laments seemed to be about Wells, his big contract, and how his hitting and fielding were on the steep decline.

Where are we now?  So many of the deadbeat placeholders are off to one of their greatest starts ever:

• Wells is day-in, day-out our best hitter, on a team leading the majors in homers and doubles; he has had several sparkling plays in the outfield so far
  
• Gonzalez is cranking out homers,doubles and RBIs, and his infield defence has been as good as we could hope for
• Buck seems to have found a bit of a formula, and while his fielding leaves a lot to be desired, if he keeps hitting anywhere near this pace, and is as helpful to his young pitchers as he seems to be, we won't want him out of there too quickly
• Even the mixed blessing that is Bautista has played a strong hot corner, and while his average is not high, there is nothing wrong with his RBI production - if he keeps that up, there is little chance that Encarnacion will displace him (of course, WillRain is still on to something with his quest for Alex Gordon)
  
• Only Overbay has consistently failed at the plate - of course his defence remains impressive

But among the hitters/fielders, it gets even better than that.  The comparison I heard from Buck Martinez and co. a few games ago, looks quite plausible - Fred Lewis could well become the next Devon White.  As he gets more and more comfortable at the plate, and flashes his speed in the field and the basepaths, this seems more and more plausible.  If true, he, too, could be around for a good stretch.

Meanwhile, I agree, Mastroianni is looking like he could contribute soon, as could Thames, Pastornicky, d'Arnaud, Emaus, Jerolman, Lubanski, and several others.  Wallace is a lock for 1B as soon as Overbay leaves.  For all the rest, my only question is, where will they play, and whom will they displace?  If Wells, Lewis and Snider continue to perform this well, where will we put Mastroianni, Thames or Lubanski??

Yes, its early season, and yes, its a nice problem if we still have it in August. 

speaking of Fred Lewis, just thought I'd share this crude comparison:

Career Total

C.Crawford: 4860pa, .295avg, .336obp, .439slg, .775ops
Fred Lewis: 1140pa, .279avg, .354obp, .426slg, .780ops

Career v. RHP

C.Crawford: 3430pa, .306avg, .344obp, .463slg, .807ops
Fred Lewis: 907pa, .283avg, .358obp, .444slg, .802ops

Career v. LHP

C.Crawford: 1430pa, .269avg, .316obp, .381slg, .697ops
Fred Lewis: 233pa, .260avg, .339obp, .356slg, .695ops

__________________

Mike, do you know of any studies that have been done on the decline of "speed" players in MLB? It could be a subjective recollection on my behalf, but I seem to recall that players that were truly fast held that speed well into their mid-late thirties (and sometimes their fourties) barring injury. Players like Rickey Henderson, Otis Nixon, Devon White, Vince Coleman are a few exmaples that come immediately to mind. It would be interesting to see how much elite speed is affected by age in baseball (within reason of course) as opposed to the players that seems fast in their youth thanks to better reads on fly balls, a better grasp of base stealing techniques etc.

Bill James did a bunch of studies in the old abstracts.  One of the memorable results was that white guys had tremendous difficulty in holding their speed to age 30 (speed, in general, is the first of the skills to go).

If you try to find white guys of the last 50 years, who could still play centerfield at age 30, it's a very limited set- Johnny Damon, Steve Finley, Jim Edmonds, Robin Yount, Lenny Dykstra, Andy Van Slyke.  There are odd players who have had similar skill sets to Mastroianni (albeit in brighter colours) who have had good seasons in centerfield after age 30. Richie Ashburn would be one. 

Even the mixed blessing that is Bautista has played a strong hot corner, and while his average is not high, there is nothing wrong with his RBI production - if he keeps that up, there is little chance that Encarnacion will displace him

In the last 16 games, JB is hitting .183/.254/.400/.654

I continue to NOT be  fan of Bautista as a full time player. What's even worse is that the production he does have this year is vs RIGHT handers which is a massive reversal of his career splits and CAN'T continue.

Whether or not EE ever gets his job back, I prophicy that by the end of the year we'll all be MOST unhappy with JB ifCito insists on playing him every day.


Only Overbay has consistently failed at the plate - of course his defence remains impressive

Not exactly.

From April 17 to May 6 Overbay hit .271/.386/.475/.860

That's been watered down by going 1/11 in the last three games but it's too early to say if this is a new extended cold streak or just a slight dip.

As for your questions about the future...I think Lubanski is in the same general boat as Ruiz and Dopirak...he could end up being here what Hermedia is in Boston but beyond that, the door probably isn't open because even if he were to force his way into LF it only re-opens the question of who leads off (until Adeniy arrives anyway)

So I'll lay him aside in answering the question...(yes I'm repeating myself a lot here)

Catcher-
If JPA presses for a promotion, I expect Buck will be offered on the market in July, and we can only hope he continues to put up numbers which make him more attractive. When he's promoted JPA will ultimately be given a wide open shot to hold the job. He'll be backed by a veteran in 2011, by Jeroloman in 2012, and unless he exceeds the common preception that he'll be, well, John Buck offensively, he'll face a challenge from d'Arnoud in 2013

First-
no need for explanation, O'bay will be market in July if he has any value and if any team has a need (neither is certain at the moment) and whenever he leaves, Wallace follows

Second-
Although there's a possibility Hill moves to third at some point, no one has yet explained to me why "3B offense" at second and "2B offense" at third matters.

Short-
Gonzo until Adeiny is ready (or assumed to be) and a very slow progression for the other guys so they are far out in the future.

Third-
Who the hell knows? If we don't make an acquisition, I remain convinced that the best forecast is Emaus takes over at some point and holds the job until Pierre arrives (albeit Sobolewski is very hot right now)

CF -
Wells until at least 2012, when he (presumably) doesn't opt out, he might move to a corner. This kind of maybe depends on where the team thinks Sierra is going to land at that point. Which is not to say he'll be ready that quickly. I don't see Mastorianni taking CF, nor do I see Marisnick or any of the really young guys arriving before 2014.

RF-
Hopefully Snider for the next couple of years unless we acquire a really nich RF prspect.

DH - Lind. Period.

LF -
I think Lewis this year and next, maybe with JB platooning. Beyond that, barring acquisitions, Lubanski is a dark horse but I'm looking at Thames, Mastorianni, and possibly Loewen. If/when Sierra arrives he would push Snider to LF. but obviously there's not room for all of them. One guy starts and one guy is on the bench and the rest have no room...

...but then, we all know that not every prospect turns out to be a major league player so having a few OF alternatives is good, and the fact that only Emaus is really close at 3B makes it the obvious place to direct our attention, even if you (like me) really like what Emaus potentially brings.

The Crawford/Lewis comparison seems to be a good one...although Lewis's fielding doesn't rate out as well. Crawford is the prototype for the type of players that get valued highly only once fielding is brought into it, being only a slightly better than average hitter for LF (who admittedly does steal bases at a good rate and %).

As for white players not holding skills to play CF past 30 - I'm sure James crunched the numbers, but is this really a race issue? There are few players, period, who are both good enough with the bat and glove to stick in CF in their 30s. Andruw Jones comes to mind recently as a complete flameout entering that age range....I can't think of many CF in recent decades who were still good in their 30's period, regardless of race. The oldest CFers right now are Cameron (injured, age 37), Torii Hunter (hitting well, age 34), then maybe Wells (age 31) - I might be missing someone. OK, so maybe a point there...With modern training methods (and modern "training methods"), I'd be surprised if conclusions reached from older players still hold true, though. Unless I've missed something, there's little reason why white players should slow down more than non-white players. Of course, there are many white players capable of playing CF at age 30 and beyond...but can they hit well enough too? It's a pretty small group to choose from in the first place, and other declines cost playing time.

speaking of Fred Lewis, just thought I'd share this crude comparison:

Crawford's career totals include his seasons from age 20-25 when Lewis wasn't even in the majors yet. A less disingenuous comparison looks at their age-specific seasons:

OPS+:
Crawford (ages 29 to 20): ??, 138, 113,  89, 117, 113, 111, 105, 81, 77
Lewis (ages 29 to 20):     127, 92, 105, 102, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a, n/a

Lewis wins the age-26 comp but loses all the rest.

I believe Dopirak was hitless for May before his three hits yesterday.  He has struggled more this season than last.  We will have to see if yesterday was a sign of things to come.

I think people are fretting too much about this whole 3rd base thing. Thinking we need a star there and that having just a decent guy there (like an EE or Bautista, or some easy free agent pickup) is some horrible weakness.

Look around the AL. Other than Longoria and ARod, are there any good third basemen?

Beltre is an above-average player.  Therein lies the rub.  There are 3 above-average third basemen in the AL, and they all reside in the AL East.

That isn't the point however.  Neither Bautista  nor Encarnacion is likely to be the starting third baseman in 2012, due to age, service time and performance to date. 

one could argue for Beltre but the point is made.

The thing is, it's not so much about how our 3B compares to others as it is "which of our positions doesn't have a 'plan' in the coming years?"

I, for one, would be perfectly content if Emaus comes along and does something like what Placido Polanco does in his better years.

In fact, check out this guy:

His counting stats (last year) pro-rate to 41 doubles and 13 homers and 77 RBI. His walk and strikeout totals would work out to 51/70

his slash lines were .305/.368/.455/.823

I don't see any reason why that would be a reasonable, albeit trending towards the high end, projection for a guy like Emaus.

That is what Scott Rolen hit in 2009.

Not to deny that that's briming with optimiism but my point is, I'm not presuming we have to find a Troy Glaus (in his prime) David Wright or whatever at 3B just because I suggest it's a position that's in flux a bit.

Yeah, the greatness of Adrian Beltre isn't exactly a pinnacle of achievement to look up to, I don't think.

Especially since EE is more than a match for him at the plate (heck, so is Bautista), and now Beltre's unorthodox but supposedly awesome D has seemed to betray him this year as he butchers Fenway's hot corner in a way that would make EE blush, and has Red Sox nation pining for the defensive stylings of Mike Lowell.

Gonzo until Adeiny is ready (or assumed to be) and a very slow progression for the other guys so they are far out in the future.

Can someone please explain to me how Bauxites - heck, even AA - can be confident that Adeiny Hechavarria is so likely to be a strong major league SS when he has not played one game in the professional minor leagues?  What is it about his Cuban statistics that convince us that he can outhit even John MacDonald, let alone Pastornicky?

I am glad AA is willing to pay good coin to go get a prospect, but if I were AA, I would be pursuing a number of alternatives through the draft, not just relying on AH.

This doesn't exactly answer your question, EWF, but...Jose Iglesias was signed by the Red Sox this past off-season from Cuba.  He is supposed to be (and his Cuban stats say) that he was considerably ahead of Hechevarria with the bat and behind him with the glove.  He is currently hitting .276/.330/.379 in AA. 

Let's put it this way. Alex Gonzalez #1 was way ahead of Hechevarria at age 20-21.  A good deal of the optimism about Hechevarria (as with Gonzalez #1) arises from projection from tools.  Sometimes the projected performance materializes, and sometimes it doesn't.

Jesse Litsch will be back on the mound for the Dunedin Jays tomorrow. 

Yeah, the greatness of Adrian Beltre isn't exactly a pinnacle of achievement to look up to, I don't think.

If the Jays added a 3-5 win player at third (above average both offensively and defensively), they'd have made a major move towards being a perennial contender. Without developing a superstar, putting the goodness of Beltre at almost every position is the next best blueprint.

Yeah, but didn't I read that Anthopoulos's strategy was to try to (that's try to) accumulate a superstar at every position for the Jays? I believe that that's the way to go. In the competitive situation the Jays are faced with, you can't afford to concede any position to pretty-decentness. You've got to stack the talent up as high as you can.

I doubt it was superstar - that's not sustainable from a player development or payroll standpoint. Either way, Beltre is usually better than pretty-decentness. Stellar defense and a bit above average bat. He's as good a player as Lind or Hill. If the Jays could find a pre-prime version of that, they'd bottle it.

Especially since EE is more than a match for him at the plate (heck, so is Bautista)

I find myself uncomfortable with defending Beltre's offense but over his career he has a 105 OPS+ and if you only take the six years since his monster year it's still 102.

Bautista's is 92.
Bautista's peak is 101

Encarnacion has a better case in that his career figure is 102, but he's got a lot spottier track record.

So yeah, you could argue that at his best EE is his equal - JB however, shouldn't be in the conversation.

Kenny Wilson returned to the Lugnut lineup yesterday, and today, he went 2-4 with a walk and two stolen bases. 

Starting to lean more towards wOBA myself, Will.

Career:

AB: .335wOBA
EE: .344wOBA
JB: .321wOBA

Current Season:

AB: .358wOBA
EE: .296wOBA
JB: .339wOBA

2009

AB: .305wOBA
EE: .322wOBA
JB: .339wOBA

2008

AB: .336wOBA
EE: .351wOBA
JB: .311wOBA

2007

AB: .346wOBA
EE: .350wOBA
JB: .331wOBA



EE is a solid notch above Beltre in most every comparison, and while Bautista is a solid notch beneath Beltre in most, over this year and last, Bautista has been Beltre's equal, and above Beltre's career averages.

wOBA isn't park or league adjusted, which in this case means a lot, and sells Beltre short.

I actually view them about the same offensively (well, I personally put Beltre a little ahead because Safeco is death on RHB fly ball hitters in particular).