Best 5th starter in MLB? In the AL? In the AL East?

Or, a pleasant surprise that will help turn a "s'posed to be" 100 loss season into a more bearable 85 loss season?

I found it fascinating that Eveland confirmed (in interviews last night) the sense of competition among the five starters.  They all seem to be similar in terms of talent, age, work ethic etc (with some differences of course, but more similarities than differences).  It seems that they are pushing each other to do better, with an informal sense of competition among them.  Is it possible that this could be a factor in their success?

Maybe Eveland's informal sense of competition is just as much with the guys who are not yet on the starting rotation, but could be, starting with Scrabble, on his return.  Until yesterday's game, it seemed like Eveland's early success was starting to fade, and he was - and still is - on the cusp.  A few more starts like that one, however, and he will only be competing with his previous best performances.

I wasn't terribly impressed with Eveland last night.  I think he can be a very good number 5 starter though.  He won't be in the rotation in a year.

Going forward, I think it will be hard for anyone to unseat Romero-Marcum-Cecil-Morrow-Rzepczynski as the rotation.  Those look like the best five to me, and if they stay healthy, the rest become trade fodder at some point.

Got curious how the starters have been doing...

Romero: 6 starts, 6+ IP in every start, 3 or fewer runs in all but his last game (5). 101-111 pitches per start.

Marcum: 6 starts, 6+ IP in every start, 3 or fewer runs in all but one start (4). 93-105 pitches per start

Eveland: 6 starts, 2 sub-6IP starts, 4 times 3 or fewer runs allowed, one uggggly start (7 runs) and a 4 run. 82 to 94 pitches per start.

Morrow: 6 starts, just 3 with 6+ IP, 3 or fewer runs in last 4 starts, first 2 were ugly. 84-109 pitches per start

Cecil: 3 starts, 6+ in all 3, 4 runs in first game then just 1 per start after, 94-111 pitches per start.

Tallet: 3 starts, 6+IP in 2, 4+ runs allowed in all 3, 88-102 pitches per start

Pretty clear that Tallet was the weakest of the 6, Morrow was on weak ground but stabilized, Eveland has had ups and downs, but (so far) Marcum/Romero/Cecil have been solid.

Very early still (obviously) but it is interesting to see how many 6+ IP games we've had.

at this point in the season, it's probably wise to look at the strength of opponent's offense Eveland has faced.....not so impressive, especially in his good starts.

I'm not looking forward to seeing him start in Fenway next week.

One ratio portends poorly for Eveland: K/BB. It is under 1.00 this year, just as it was last year.

Mike Green made allusions to Kirk Rueter. Rueter lasted a long time with a notiously low K rate, counfounding those who felt his demise was imminent for the better part of a decade. But the wheels fell off for good once his K/BB ratio dropped below 1.00.  Eveland's career K rate isn't poor, but his rates in 2009-10 have been. And he doesn't have Rueter's control.

So Eveland is striking out too few, walking too many, and walking more than he's striking out. Once the homeruns start coming, and they will, he'll start to pay dearly.

I think Eveland versus the rest of the rotation is a case of apples and oranges in terms of talent. He will be dropped from the rotation. It's just a matter of when.

I'd really like to express two thumbs down for the "Scrabble" nickname for Marc Rzepczynski, which has cropped up in a couple of threads.  How about just Zep if you can't wrap your head around the pronunciation but don't want to come off as crypto-racist against Poles?     

That's a good rotation.  We still have Drabek, Stewart, Alvarez and possibily McGowan coming up over the next couple of years.  If we don't run into serious injury problems, best strategy would be to trade some of the starters once they have some success at the big league level...the return in trades is bigger for proven big league starters compared to prospects.

So far so good.

He's started at Fenway twice, never completing the third inning. In 2008, he gave 9 runs in 2.0 innings while in 2009, he gave up 4 in 2.2 innings.

Does not look very promising.

Has the 'Futures' for Fred Lewis been worked out with the Giants yet?

Might we see Eveland's name in the mix as someone who might be heading back to complete the deal?

(or might their be a Bay City reunion in Accardo's future?)

I believe the scrabble nickname for Zep was given to him by his teammates.  If so you will be hearing it a lot more from the writers and TV/Radio guys when Zep comes back up.

Crypto-racist?  Against Poles?  Steady on, old chap!

If it helps you regain your sense of perspective:

• The Polish people are a nationality, not a race
• Rzepczynski is relatively easy for non-Poles to pronounce - to spell, not so much
• Scrabble is a game that requires you use to letters to spell; there is nothing in that nickname that suggests a pronunciation challenge
  
• Crypto means hidden - what particular insight do you profess that enables you to uncover hidden racists from a line in a post?
• The nickname, as first reported, emerged from the friendly banter of his teammates - do they 'come off' to you as racists, too, hidden or otherwise?

I happen to think he is going to be a long-term member of the Jays team, and we will all be very proud of him.

How hard is his FB and what else does he throw?

Eveland - six starts - KC, Bal, CWC (2), Oak and Bos.

Oakland and Boston unloaded on him and he looked like Cy Young against KC, Bal and CWC. The guy is a perfectly adequate AAAA pitcher - maybe an OK number 5 at best.

With Scrabble/Zep/"The Pole" and Drabek and Litsch and Stewart and Alvarez etc. all nearing availability - by this time next year we'll have forgotten his name.

The good news is that when it comes time to displace Eveland from the rotation, he should slot nicely into the bullpen. Dude is killing lefties so far this year, and he seems ideally suited for 5-6 out stretches against teams that can send a few quality LH up there (Minnesota, Boston, Los Angeles, etc.)

Well, my philosophy about pitchers is that I simply do not know what will happen and I have doubts about the abilities of others to prognosticate.  Eveland is a lefty who throws slop and his control (right now) is not great.  Nonetheless, baseball history is littered with these guys succeeding for a year or four.

Chuck raises a good point about his W/K.  The thing is that it is only over a period of 70 innings, and in the meanwhile he has pitched very well in triple A and in spring training.  He has been recovering from injury, and he is still young.  It wouldn't shock me at all if he got his W/K down to .7 or something and became a charter member of the Tommy John family of pitchers.

"The guy is a perfectly adequate AAAA pitcher...."

So in National League parlance a solid #3? If the smoke and mirrors can be maintained for another few starts I would hope that a mid-season trade to a pitching hungry NL team would be in order (SELL HIGH!).

If I were AA, I wouldn't be too quick to start trading the young Jays starters. Starting pitching depth can evaporate pretty quickly. Marcum could be a fine addition for a contending team down the stretch, but it would take a pretty fine offer to pry him away. I guess it depends on how quickly AA sees the team becoming a legit contender.

I agree with Greenfrog.  There is absolutely no harm in hanging on to surplus starting pitching, unless and until one of the starters in the minors starts banging down the door to the big club.  Also, it's unclear where the organizational prospect needs will lie after nine high draft picks, some of whom will likely be over slot.  AA has not been shy about identifying specific trade targets thus far, and if a starting pitcher seals the deal, so be it.

On a related note, what I've enjoyed the most about this season has been the number of quality pitches thrown by Jays starters all year.  Obviously, the team leads the league in K's, but the starting staff coaxed an awful lot of weak groundouts and pop-ups too.  Considering what a young rotation Toronto has in general, I've been repeatedly impressed by the thought process and execution in attacking batters.  Good count awareness, good homework on hitters.  Some credit may be due to the catchers and coaches, but the pitchers have been hitting their spots.  For the mental and physical development of young pitchers, it sure can't hurt.

If I were AA, I wouldn't be too quick to start trading the young Jays starters. Starting pitching depth can evaporate pretty quickly. Marcum could be a fine addition for a contending team down the stretch, but it would take a pretty fine offer to pry him away. I guess it depends on how quickly AA sees the team becoming a legit contender.

^^^
One must be judicious, but if we are postulating mid-to-late June (I don't think anyone here supposes a deal next week), you have every possibility that

Marcum
Romero
Morrow
Cecil
Zep
Tallet
Litsch, and
Mills

Will all remain her and viable options for the rotation even after Eveland is (theoretically) gone. it's hard to imagine a confluance of events that would force the Jays to expose themselves by having to use an inadaquate starter. Heck, in such a circumstance you still have the option of stretching out Janssen, or skipping Drabek up to the majors, and that doesn't even presume upon the health of Richmond or McGowan.

So in National League parlance a solid #3? If the smoke and mirrors can be maintained for another few starts I would hope that a mid-season trade to a pitching hungry NL team would be in order (SELL HIGH!).

I'd written a response early in the thread that gotten eaten by a glitch which was, essentially, exactly that. There's no reason why the Jays shouldn't seek a trade partner for him when the time comes. Hell, he'd be the ace of the Pirate staff.

@BOS & MIN will be a nice test for Eveland as guys like Zep and Litsch are getting ready. If Hill and Lind can get going like it's 2009 this offense has a chance to be pretty good. Travis Snider after tonight is hitting .234/.327/.447, with Adam Lind at .237/.321/.415 and Aaron Hill at .191/.313/.338. It would help the team late in games if Snider and Lewis weren't batting back to back.

So far, Snider and Lewis have hit lefties just fine.

I don't see the pirates trading prospects for an "Ace" like Eveland. Non contenders don't trade prospects unless they have a surplus and even then.
AA is probably not after expensive veterans like EE and Bautista.

Trading good pitchers in the division is a big no-no.

Ideally, you deal with NL contenders.
Philadelphia could use some arms, but do they have any prospects left to trade?
You saw how quickly the Mets ran out of depth despite the large payroll?

"Scrabble" is not as good a nickname as that bestowed on Doug "Eye Chart" Gwosdz. Best. Nickname. Ever.

As for the starting pitching situation: you can never never never have too much pitching. If the Jays need bats, they can always buy some (assuming that Rogers is willing to spend money at that point). Besides, help is coming from the farm in not too long: presumably, Wallace, one of the catchers, and eventually Hechevarria are on their way.

Trading Marcum at any time would be a really bad idea: he apparently has become the Alpha Dog of the pitching staff. He throws four pitches for strikes, he's a home-grown Jay, and he doesn't cost much. Why trade him?

I'm the guy who sponsors his baseball ref and has roots that go back to eastern europe on one side of my family... fluid borders over the last century and a half, thus, to call the Polish people a race, just seems bizarre to me. But whatever... people like to throw that term around.

Personally, I'd rather use class as for everything, but that's betraying the relatively extreme left-wing bias I had when I was a teen. Heh.

That IS the most wicked nick-name ever.

I'm becoming more and more of the opinion that this team ought to be left alone -- I'm very willing to change that opinion in early July, but not for the pitching staff. It is developing. The offense, it'll be better than folks expected, to be sure... and I'm hoping Overbay can be dealt, but I'm not holding my breath.

Let 'em play, let 'em play. I like watching this team, it'll be on pace for .500 +/- 4 by September 1st... then there are quite a few games v. the Yankees games if memory serves (yup, checked)...

I don't see the pirates trading prospects for an "Ace" like Eveland.

This is the sort of thing that can lead to misunderstandings because of different definitions of words.

first, "prospect" is a relative term. As Ray Gonzalez a "prospect"? Depends on what you mean by the term, he's not for me but technically I suppose some would say so.

Second, there are other choices besides "prospect" (in the sense of ACTUALLY having a real chance to have an impact in the majors) and "expensive veteran"

third, it all depends on depth - in the Jays' case, if we were going to try to trade for, to use a recent example, Alex Gordon, we might well be willing to include a guy like Jeroloman or Jimenez because we have so much catching depth, even if they are better players in the abstract than we would normally want to include in a package.

I don't know what the Pirates minor league situation looks like, I simply made the observation based on how astoundingly bad their rotation has performed this year, but if i go and look....probably the best hope would be that Neil Walker has fallen out of favor.

but it certainly doesn't have to be the Pirates, i was simply illustrating the fact that a pitcher like Eveland has value.

Buster Olny tweets that his latest blog refers, among other things, to "the Jays' quandary" - one assumes this has to do with rotation crowding?

If so, what did he say? If not...well...what did he say?

WillRain,

Onley says that interest from the Jays fanbase is withering and they would be contenders in any other division thus he argues they are a prime candidate for realignment.

I put the quote from Olney in the whats going on thread this morning.  When you say the Jays are a candidate for realignment Olney doesn't talk about moving the team.  He suggests the Jays would be competitive in other divisions.

I'm not really following your comment Gerry, Onley says this in the first part of his blurb on the Jays: "The latest example of why realignment needs to happen"; reffering to the Jays good start and solid pitching.  I never said he talks about moving the team just that they are an example of why some shuffeling of the AL East division is needed in his opinion.

Willrain and everyone, I think it is a good idea to categorize prospects, which has probably already been done, but then we will disagree on individuals A and B eg Brett Wallace and Michael Taylor. I/we must say they are equal until time determines otherwise? So how equal are C Buchholz (15-16 W-L, ERA 4.64, Age 25; B Cecil (9-5, 4.82, 23) and P Hughes (17-10, 3.85, 23)and other factors as one for one trades as an example?. Talent? Age? How long before Arbitration & Free Agency?

Ramone:

I think it's wording.  When I read your "prime candidate for realignment" I read it as though the Jays could move.  I guess the Jays would be the major benficiary of realignment.

No harm, no foul.

Yes, it will be challenging to Eveland to stay in the Jays' rotation. Then again, other than Romero and Marcum, it's going to be challenging for just about everybody.

And we may have a ton of prospects, but almost all of them have inning limits this year. Discarding Eveland too early doesn't strike me as wise, on that count alone. I'd also like to keep running him out there, and see exactly what we have. If Kirk Rueter is his best upside... that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

He has worked hard, and I hope he has a decent major league career - in Toronto, or elsewhere. I think that's possible.

For all those extra innings / mlb.tv enabled folk, Dallas Braden has a perfect game going through 8. Announcers have already said it explicitly, so they're to blame for any jinx.

I just succeeded in picking my jaw up off the floor after Lewis' homer. Now this?

Maybe I do have to give a damn what he thinks about baseball now.

Way to go Dallas.

This Jays team has been extremely fun to watch...that was a great game (and I only caught the last few innings). It's always tough to win in Boston, but they really have a chance to put the Red Sox in a very uncomfortable spot in the AL East over the next few days (they're also going to miss Lester). Should be an entertaining series.

Count me in as looking forward to the Red Sox series.  So far TO has been a great team against everyone outside their division and Baltimore.  Taking a series from the Sox would be huge but won't convince me they're contenders.

I have to wonder now what the team would be like if they still had Rios.  He's looking like a pretty great pickup for Chicago this season (so fa.)

Personally the guy made me crazy -- but having his bat might make this team even better.  Thoughts?

Rios is a fine defensive centerfielder, and may or may not have thrived here.  It looks like the departure from Toronto has helped him, although you would never have known it at the end of last year. 

Rios can be streaky. I won't be convinced that he's elevated his game until he's performed well for a couple of seasons. But I'm happy for his early-season success and could see him having a Werth-like surge in his late 20s / early 30s if everything breaks right. He certainly went through a brutal spell last year.

So far I've been happy to have essentially swapped Rios (Mr Disinterested) for Fred Lewis (the man who was once touted as Barry Bonds Successor.)

Fred wasn't exactly handled well by the Giants.  They gave him one year to prove himself then pretty much gave up on him when he didn't turn into a monster hitter in the 3 hole....

So far this year, Rios and Lewis are powerful advertisements for the "change of scenery" theory of personal motivation....

I wouldn't stop there ChinaFan.

The man this thread is about is also a poster boy to this point in the season.

The man this thread is about is also a poster boy to this point in the season.

I don't know about that. His 2009 FIP was 5.05. This year it's 4.45. An improvement, yes. But not one warranting a poster.

I don't expect him to keep it up all season (although it would be nice if he did) but up until this point he's been performing pretty well as a fresh face for the Jays.

With a little luck he'll even beat the Red Sox tonight and get the Fenway monkey off his back...