I start this post at a disadvantage because I'm not a subscriber to either ESPN or Baseball America. I'm aware that BA has ongoing previews of the best players available for the upcoming June Draft. and that Keith law has also weighed in with a Top 100 list. but given that both are not available for free, I must leave any discussion of those expressed opinions to others.
What I can bring to the table, though, is John Sickels' 2010 First Round Mock Draft, as well as his Mock Draft for the Supplemental first round.
Without divulging too much of his content, I'll simply lift out the selections he assigns to the Jays as a foundation for a couple of observations:
11) Toronto Blue Jays: Christian Colon, SS, Cal State Fullerton
Good tools, good bat, good makeup. Main issue is possible bonus demands, but after last year's debacle the Jays may be looking for a different course from previous conservative drafting.
34) Toronto Blue Jays: Todd Cunningham, OF, Jacksonville State University
Has decent tools but should be affordable, important for the Jays with multiple picks following last year.
38) Toronto Blue Jays: Micah Gibbs, C, Louisiana State University
He won't need a lot of time in the minors, provides defense with a decent bat, and will be attractive to a team with multiple picks and a budget.
41) Toronto Blue Jays: Addison Reed, RHP, San Diego State University
He's polished, affordable, throws hard, and won't take long to reach a major league bullpen.
I have two thoughts regarding the projections Sickels makes here, with all due respect to a man who's clearly more knowledgeable than I am.
First, he seems to be leaning hard towards "safe" picks and I would argue that there's almost no evidence, beyond the number of picks in hand, that would indicate the Blue Jays intend to play it safe. in fact, in his remark on Colon he alludes to potential bonus demands and observes (correctly, in my opinion) that the Jays might be less conservative, before going on to assign them three conservative picks in the supplemental round.
I originally reacted with "Colon? Not my first choice but not bad." But the more I read about Colon the more I get the impression that would ne a noteable overdraft.
Instead, I suggest Austin Wilson. Wilson, too, is considered a hard sign but he's also considered a five tool talent who's described in far more glowing terms than Colon, even by Sickels himself:
20) Boston Red Sox: Austin Wilson, OF, Harvard Westlake High School, California
Mega-tools with excellent makeup, which the Red Sox like. He also has a large price tag to buy him away from Stanford, but the Red Sox could afford that more than most clubs.
I simply don't see a rational explanation for why the Jays would pass on a hard-to-sign five tool high school outfielder to take a hard-to-sign less impressive college junior shortstop - especially in the wake of signing Adeniy.
Second, after stating the Jays might be less conservative he gives them a high school outfielder at #34 that he describes as having "decent tools" - because he's affordable. What's up with that?
Then a few picks later he suggests a team with as many as half a dozen good catcher prospects would draft a catcher who "shouldn't need much time in the minors." Again - huh???
I know nothing of Cunningham, and Gibbs seems worthy of respect but neither of these makes sense to me, especially when you see THIS:
39) Boston Red Sox: James Paxton, LHP, Grand Prairie
Hard to know how he ranks until we get to see him pitch when the independent leagues start up, but I can see the Red Sox being attracted to the marvelous K/IP and K/BB marks he posted in college as much as his lively arm from the left side.
Now, laying aside whether or not Paxton will be on the board this late (Law ranked him #13 I'm told), maybe it's just me but I can't see that.
If affordability is at issue, who's got LESS leverage than Paxton? Beyond that, the Blue Jays clearly liked him a year ago and admit they essentially misplayed their hand at the negotiating table. It makes no sense to me that they would let him slide not once but twice. Maybe I'm projecting my own views on the team here but I'd be stunned if the Jays passed on Paxton with even one of those picks, let alone both of them.
And I'd be really unhappy if that led to Paxton suiting up for the Red Sox.
In any case, the ball has commenced to roll. Are their other sources you trust for solid projections for the upcoming draft? Personal favorites for whom you are rooting? Scouting reports you want to highlight?
The floor is open.
What I can bring to the table, though, is John Sickels' 2010 First Round Mock Draft, as well as his Mock Draft for the Supplemental first round.
Without divulging too much of his content, I'll simply lift out the selections he assigns to the Jays as a foundation for a couple of observations:
11) Toronto Blue Jays: Christian Colon, SS, Cal State Fullerton
Good tools, good bat, good makeup. Main issue is possible bonus demands, but after last year's debacle the Jays may be looking for a different course from previous conservative drafting.
34) Toronto Blue Jays: Todd Cunningham, OF, Jacksonville State University
Has decent tools but should be affordable, important for the Jays with multiple picks following last year.
38) Toronto Blue Jays: Micah Gibbs, C, Louisiana State University
He won't need a lot of time in the minors, provides defense with a decent bat, and will be attractive to a team with multiple picks and a budget.
41) Toronto Blue Jays: Addison Reed, RHP, San Diego State University
He's polished, affordable, throws hard, and won't take long to reach a major league bullpen.
I have two thoughts regarding the projections Sickels makes here, with all due respect to a man who's clearly more knowledgeable than I am.
First, he seems to be leaning hard towards "safe" picks and I would argue that there's almost no evidence, beyond the number of picks in hand, that would indicate the Blue Jays intend to play it safe. in fact, in his remark on Colon he alludes to potential bonus demands and observes (correctly, in my opinion) that the Jays might be less conservative, before going on to assign them three conservative picks in the supplemental round.
I originally reacted with "Colon? Not my first choice but not bad." But the more I read about Colon the more I get the impression that would ne a noteable overdraft.
Instead, I suggest Austin Wilson. Wilson, too, is considered a hard sign but he's also considered a five tool talent who's described in far more glowing terms than Colon, even by Sickels himself:
20) Boston Red Sox: Austin Wilson, OF, Harvard Westlake High School, California
Mega-tools with excellent makeup, which the Red Sox like. He also has a large price tag to buy him away from Stanford, but the Red Sox could afford that more than most clubs.
I simply don't see a rational explanation for why the Jays would pass on a hard-to-sign five tool high school outfielder to take a hard-to-sign less impressive college junior shortstop - especially in the wake of signing Adeniy.
Second, after stating the Jays might be less conservative he gives them a high school outfielder at #34 that he describes as having "decent tools" - because he's affordable. What's up with that?
Then a few picks later he suggests a team with as many as half a dozen good catcher prospects would draft a catcher who "shouldn't need much time in the minors." Again - huh???
I know nothing of Cunningham, and Gibbs seems worthy of respect but neither of these makes sense to me, especially when you see THIS:
39) Boston Red Sox: James Paxton, LHP, Grand Prairie
Hard to know how he ranks until we get to see him pitch when the independent leagues start up, but I can see the Red Sox being attracted to the marvelous K/IP and K/BB marks he posted in college as much as his lively arm from the left side.
Now, laying aside whether or not Paxton will be on the board this late (Law ranked him #13 I'm told), maybe it's just me but I can't see that.
If affordability is at issue, who's got LESS leverage than Paxton? Beyond that, the Blue Jays clearly liked him a year ago and admit they essentially misplayed their hand at the negotiating table. It makes no sense to me that they would let him slide not once but twice. Maybe I'm projecting my own views on the team here but I'd be stunned if the Jays passed on Paxton with even one of those picks, let alone both of them.
And I'd be really unhappy if that led to Paxton suiting up for the Red Sox.
In any case, the ball has commenced to roll. Are their other sources you trust for solid projections for the upcoming draft? Personal favorites for whom you are rooting? Scouting reports you want to highlight?
The floor is open.
