My Kenny Wilson watch.  In the first, he reached on an infield single, advanced to second on a balk, and then apparently made a baserunning error leading to a fly out/double play.  He walked in the third.  He bunted into an out and struck out. 

worth noting Perez had five walks and only one K

I woke up this morning with the MILB gameday window still open on my computer, and gameday was telling me that Wallace's game-ending flyout to left field was actually over the wall, and must have been a helluva catch on a potentially game tying HR there.

Or maybe gameday was lying to me - can anyone confirm?

Wallace is now hitting 281/369/667 with 7 HR (he leads the league in home runs; the next-highest total is 5). This is excellent news, especially considering that Michael Taylor, who is a year older than Wallace, is currently hitting 250/328/417 with 1 HR in AAA. Between Wallace, D'Arnaud, Gregg, Gonzalez and Eveland (leaving aside Drabek, who has been inconsistent so far but has a high ceiling), I've been really impressed with AA's moves so far. Even Morrow's last start was like, wow. Of course, this is a small sample size and some of these players will likely cool down or flame out.

Not sure Wilson committed a base running blunder last night Mike. He was ruled to have left early on a fly ball to center. It was close but I'm not sure about the call.

Does no one else think that the answer to our third base problems and also a way to clear up one of the middle infield slots for Pastornicky/Jackson/Tolisano/Hech is to shift Hill to third?

Wallace's start is certainly encouraging but unfortunately I think Wallace is stuck at AAA until the Overbay situation is resolved somehow. I really hope that he can get hot and be traded before the deadline. If he's hitting .250 with little power and production by June we'll get peanuts for him.

Thanks, LF. 

There are a number of long-term possibilities for the infield, with the players currently in the organization.  At this stage, it looks to me like the third baseman in a couple of years might be Emaus or Hill, the shortstop might be Adeiny or Jackson or Pastornicky and the the second baseman might be Hill or Pastornicky. 

we should probably wait until a middling prospect like pastronicky or jackson show he can even hit AAA pitching before we worry too much about moving an all-star silver-slugging gold-glove-calibre 2nd baseman over across the diamond.

let's just hope one of those SS prospects turns into a good MLB SS, before we start making plans for having two of them demanding playing time on the Jays.

Drabek is on form today, one hit allowed throgh five innings, five K's (so far).

That's great to see from Drabek, as I was starting to get a little nervous about him. We really need him and Stewart to get back on track.

On another note its been a long time since the farm has had as much depth at SS and C. I mean we have legit prospects at C right from Auburn to Vegas, and 3 legit SS prospects in Dunedin. The new weakness has to be the outfield, and the hot-corner. Wilson, Thames, and Sierra aren't a strong trio of prospects.

I'm thinking that Emaus arrives maybe in md 2011 or 2012 and is a stopgap 3B for a year or two then Hill shifts over (if Ahrens or someone hasn't stepped up as a real comer) if he is resigned. That would mean that J-Jack or Pastornicky have a chance to take things slow and arrive in the majors sometime in 2013 with a chance to start, if all things go well, in 2014 (either because Hill moves or leaves via FA)

I think the jays will likely target one of the high school short stops who project as third baseman as professionals during the first couple rounds. Like Nick Castellanos, Yordy Cabrera, maybe even Manny Machado. I think the obvious organization needs are athletic corner outfielders and infielders, and power pitching. I don't think for one second AA is content with Emaus or Hill as our future at third base.

Gerry ... Do the Blue Jays have a Minor League roving sports psychologist who works with the players ?

laying aside whether it's smart to give up having a hitter of his caliber at 2B, I think almost any GM in baseball would be very content to have Aaron Hill be his 3B for the next five years.

Emaus, admittedly, is on a much lower shelf but good teams had won plenty of games with guys like Craig Counsell (for instance) manning 3B so it wouldn't be like Emaus would embarrass you - he could very well turn out to be a fine little #2 hitter with his walk rate.

As for the draft, I have my eye on Zach Cox if he falls to us BUT a player drafted this year is - unless he's a raer find - gonna take until 2013 or 2014 to arrive in the majors anyway so who gets drafted doesn't have much to do with whether or not Emaus stopgaps a couple of years here.

The actual proper retort is this: there's every possibility that AA trades some of our excess SP for a long term 3B solution.

Here's a suggestion: since they are well known for making dumb deals, and since there's an argument to be made that he needs a change of scenary, how about EE and a couple of young pitchers (Mills and Perez for instance) to the Royals for Alex Gordon?

Downside of that being he's down to three years of team control so you need to turn him around pretty quick, but you have the chance to extend him too.

Wait, why would we want Alex Gordon? Little pop and middling BA/OBP/OPS- might as well just stick with Bautista.

Alex Gordon would be interesting, although I don't think the Royals are willing to give up on him just yet.

My point is this team is a long way a way from contending. There's only a half-dozen guys at best on our ml roster that are high end talents who can be considered better or on par with their equivalents on a contender. Note I'm discounting Vernon Wells because the consensus is that he will not be around or a part of any Blue Jay playoff team.

For example, Aaron Hill and Adam Lind would be on par or better then their position opposition for the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, or Rays etc.
I think you can add Rickey Romero as a no. 2 or no. 3, and Shawn Marcum as a no.3 or no. 4. I think Brendan Morrow, if he figures it out, also would be considered on par or better than a no. 2 or no. 3 on a contender. I guess the same goes for Travis Snider as well. If he develops he would certainly be an excellent left-fielder. In our bullpen I think every arm maybe with the exception of Scott Downs is below what contending teams bullpens look like. There's no strike out guy, no guy who blows the ball by you, and no elite closer.

So you have holes everywhere. In the minor leagues, who could possibly be better than the equivalent at the major league level?
Brett Wallace, yes. Kyle Drabek, ok, probably as a no. 2. Zack Stewart, out of the bullpen sure. JP Arencibia, has started slow. Travis D'arnaud looks to be the real deal, so yes. Henderson Alvarez, yes, power pitching, ground balls, low walk rate, he has frontline written all over him. Hechevaria, if he's everything he's made out to be, yes.

Anyways, there are of course more prospects. But I think the point that AA makes is we're done trying to develop serviceable ml baseball players, or pros who project out to be major league average. Other competing baseball teams need to look at our entire roster and say I'd rather have that guy playing right field for us or whatever then the player we have. So this notion that we should shift around players to accommodate the likes of Pastornicky who, unless he develops 10-15 homerun power and starts to play much better defense is not a player another team would say, "hey I'd rather have him playing short stop over Jimmy Rollins, or Derek Jeter, or even Marco Scutaro."

Jgadfly:

I am not sure but I don't think so.  They do have a sports psychologist on retainer but I have never heard of him travelling to see the minor league teams.  I assume he would be available on an individual basis if a player needed to see him.

Wait, why would we want Alex Gordon? Little pop and middling BA/OBP/OPS- might as well just stick with Bautista.

Same reason we want Morrow - under the theory he has way more talent than he has shown and ha simply been rushed and mishandled.

it's a gamble, sure. But EE has mild upside, and JB has NONE.

Gordon, otoh, MIGHT have significant upside if it can be unlocked.

My point is this team is a long way a way from contending. There's only a half-dozen guys at best on our ml roster that are high end talents who can be considered better or on par with their equivalents on a contender. Note I'm discounting Vernon Wells because the consensus is that he will not be around or a part of any Blue Jay playoff team.

For example, Aaron Hill and Adam Lind would be on par or better then their position opposition for the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, or Rays etc.
I think you can add Rickey Romero as a no. 2 or no. 3, and Shawn Marcum as a no.3 or no. 4. I think Brendan Morrow, if he figures it out, also would be considered on par or better than a no. 2 or no. 3 on a contender. I guess the same goes for Travis Snider as well. If he develops he would certainly be an excellent left-fielder. In our bullpen I think every arm maybe with the exception of Scott Downs is below what contending teams bullpens look like. There's no strike out guy, no guy who blows the ball by you, and no elite closer.

So you have holes everywhere. In the minor leagues, who could possibly be better than the equivalent at the major league level?
Brett Wallace, yes. Kyle Drabek, ok, probably as a no. 2. Zack Stewart, out of the bullpen sure. JP Arencibia, has started slow. Travis D'arnaud looks to be the real deal, so yes. Henderson Alvarez, yes, power pitching, ground balls, low walk rate, he has frontline written all over him. Hechevaria, if he's everything he's made out to be, yes.

I suppose it depends on what you mean by "a long time"

For the purpose of this speculation, I'll look at the '13-'14 teams given the length of current contracts.

C: D'arnoud/JPA/Jeroloman - given the relatively low production from non-elite catchers in the majors, this is not a high bar to reach to be considered an above average catcher, even for a contender. For instance, will D'arnoud or JPA give us as much as Veritek gave the Red Sox most of the last 5 or 6 contending seasons? That's not asking a whole lot.

1B: Wallace - there's no reason to think he can't produce as well as the 1B on most contending teams. He doesn't have to be Texeria (though that's not impossible) in order to be as good as someone like Kenerko, or even Youklis

2B: Hill - is already on par with his peers and shouldn't decline any more rapidly than they will. One can quibble whether he's as good as Kinsler or Cano or Pedroia, but he's in the same neighborhood.

SS: Adeniy - obviously might fail spectacularly, but if he lives up to 80% of his billing, he's on a par with any SS except the very elite guys. Again I refer you to some of the SS that the Red Sox have contended with over the last half decade. if the can contend with Alex Gonzalez or Orlando Cabrera, we shouldn't be ashamed to run Adeniy out there.

3B: big question mark -Emaus? Someone we sign or trade for? We could run through the presumptive contenders in 2010 and almost all of them have a position of uncertainty. The Rays gave over 600 at bats to Iwamura in 2008 and won a few games. I don't think it's a stretch to suggest even Emaus could put up a .729 OPS

Alternately this might be Hill, who would be a perfectly acceptable contender's 3B and the 2B might be a relatively raw kid like Jackson or someone we're not paying attention to now like Scott Campbell. From an offensive standpoint it works out to the same thing.

LF: Snider - if Snider doesn't turn out to be an offensive monster by this time frame then a lot of reasonable expectations fall apart

CF: Wells - should logically be in RF by this time but the Jays don't seem inclined to make that move and there's no obvious guy to take his place unless Marisnick comes pretty fast. Obviously we can debate about whether or not he'll be a hitter worth of CF on a contender, but consider - TWO qualifying major league CF in 209 had an OPS over .810. Grady Sizemore was #10 with an OPS of .788, and Boston and Colorado both contended with CF who had a .770 OPS.
Wells is certainly capeable of a disasterous season for mysterious reasons - but it's not a bold projection to assume he can be in the .780-.800 range in most years.

RF: Sierra?  - maybe a variety of ways you can project this one, including assuming a potential trade. I'll give you that this is a spot that might undermine the plans as things stand now.

DH: Lind - no exposition necessary

So...

Adeniy
Emaus
Lind
Snider
Wells
Wallace
Hill
D'arnoud/JPA
Sierra?

If everyone there plays to reasonable projections, i don't think it takes a back seat to any lineup other than the theoretical Yankee lineup (assuming they continue to buy the best player at every spot)

As for the pitching:

SP -
Romero: A lot of people are saying he has top of the rotation potential now. As good as CC? Maybe not, But as good as Buhrile or Weaver or Hamels? Not unreasonable.

Morrow: If he's still here, he's developed into AJ 2.0 without the injuries, which is a fine contender's #2

Drabek: Again, what are the comparisons? Vazquez? Pinero? Blanton? Penny? Who here wants to argue Drabek can't be that good? Likely better. Almost certainly better in time.

Cecil: It's reasonable to argue he'd also be as good or better than the comps mentioned for Drabek.

Zep? Alverez? I don't think there are going to be a lot of #5 pitchers even on contenders that we have to pale in comparison to.

Bullpen:

Stewart to close? I know they  are projecting him as a starter but EVERY report says he's a potential shut-down closer. Of course there's the ever present caveat about potential (which means you haven't done it yet) but one could as easily argue that Papelbon's shoulder will fall apart as you could argue that a very good young pitcher flames out. tis the nature of projections.

I use Stewart here simply because of the depth of rotation alternatives.

Roenicke - considered a solid closer prospect in his own right. Surely as good a set up man as Delcarman, for instance.

Farquhar, Collins, Magnuson - what's to be ashamed of about these guys in comparison to what you might find in your average contender's bullpen this year? At least based on their work so far?

Mills, Richmond, Ray, Bell, Purcey - left over starters who should make perfectly reasonable relievers (if Purcey can live up to recent praise)

Carlson - will still be here and has my confidence, though some place a lot more emphisis on a relatively few bad outings last year

And that's not counting anyone we might pick up along the way.

There's not a solid seven man pen out of all those options? Beyond the Red Sox, I don't see a bullpen on a contending team that's filled with guys of whom you'd say "It's gonna be tough to match that"


***
Summation -

A lot of words to say that if we are discussing a reasonably near-term situation - yes even one which still involves Vernon Wells - I think it is a perfectly reasonable projection to suggest that in three years time this will be a team that is AT LEAST as good as the Rays are now.

And that's just based on internal solutions at every spot, with no signings or other imports which will surely happen.

It's hard to say Gordon was rushed, he DOMINATED AA as a 22 year old, with 111r 29hr 101rbi 22sb and a .325/.427/.588 line - I guess the K rate with a high BABIP was alarming, but I'm not going to condemn the Royals front office for giving him the everyday job. Heaven knows there's plenty of other fodder if one wants to criticize Dayton Moore's crew.

Gordon is exactly the type of player I'd love to see AA acquire, seeing as scouts saw enough in him that Baseball America had him at #13 overall before playing a professional game and then #2 behind a seasoned Dice-K, who really shouldn't have qualified as a prospect. It would also be nice to add a LHB infield bat to a team locked into Hill and Wells for awhile.

WillRain- I appreciated your prediction on where the Jays will be in 3 to 4 years. Problem is that this sounds eerily familiar to the predictions that were being made about 5 years ago as well. I'll admit to being just as gung-ho as the next guy about prospects like Wallace/Zep/Alvarez and Hech, but I just want some of them to actually pan out for once.

So yes, optimism is good, but let's factor in that the chances are high that half of those SP candidates you listed will not work out and that it's more than likely that only one of Snider/Wallace/Hech will live up to their billing. Sad but this is what 15 years of no playoffs has done to my expectations.

Expecting Brett Wallace to produce like Youkilis is a lot to ask.  Youkilis should have been the AL MVP in 2008.

Youklis had an OPS+ of 143 in 2008.

Adam Lind had an OPS+ of 144 last year.

And Wallace has been a more well regarded prospect, to this point in his career, than Lind was at any given stage.

Wallace reached AAA at the age of 22, Youklis was still in A ball at 22

Youk had eight homers over 135 games spread across three levels (AA being the highest) at age 23, Wallace has seven already at AAA at age 23. (albeit in the PCL)

Youk had 30 homers in 410 minor league games, Wallace has 35 so far in 209 minor league games.

I think it's reasonable to expect Wallace to be as good or better than Youklis.

Problem is that this sounds eerily familiar to the predictions that were being made about 5 years ago as well.

Apart from injuries, most of that optimism was born out. It just didn't produce the wins it should have.

Wells' multiple injuries, McGowan falling apart, Marcum TJ, Janssen's shoulder, Overbay's hand...we're all familiar with.

and the teams failed to contend partly because of breaks and partly because of injuries and partly because of bizzare commitments to Wilkerson and the like.

But did Marcum, Lind, Hill, Romero and others turn out to be what we thought they would? Yeah.

Other than Adams and Purcey (both of whom had a considerable contingent of doubters) who were we counting on five years ago that went south on us?

 And even with all the injuries and the rest, the 2006-2008 teams WERE good - they just under-performed in the win column.

So yes, optimism is good, but let's factor in that the chances are high that half of those SP candidates you listed will not work out

Those were just examples though. If you allow for the real fact that anyone here now can be re-signed if need be, then the 2014 rotation is the five remaining best guys out of:

Marcum
McGowan
Litsch
Morrow
Romero
Cecil
Zep
Mills
Eveland
Drabek
Stewart
Alverez
Jenkins
Perez
Richmond
Ray
Bell

Out of 18 current pitchers counting established guys and good to excellent prospects we can't find FIVE?




and that it's more than likely that only one of Snider/Wallace/Hech will live up to their billing.

You can argue that both ways - it depends on whether you arbitrarily limit the list to those three guys. In fact, snider and Wallace have no more mutual relationship to each other, mathmatically, than Lind and Hill do. the fact that Hill succeeded did not increase or decrease the likelihood that Lind would.

Now, it's true that in a large enough group, like say the top three rounds of any given draft, statistically more than half will fail.

but saying "likely only one of these three will succeed" has no basis in objective fact.

If I say "between Matusz, Tillman, and Arrieta likely only one will succeed" most folks would dispute me.

Even more so, if I say "Between Weiters, Snider, and Heyward only one will succeed"

why does it change when it's three young Jays?

Again, to be CRYSTAL clear, I agree with the statement "more than half of your prospects won't live up to their promise"

but I don't think that holds true for every sample size. And I think it's smart to distinguish between really elite guys and "good prospects" when you say that.

Tell me that between Romero, Drabek and Stewart likely only one will succeed and I won't buy it. Tell me that between Mills, Zep, and Ray likely only one will make it and I can't help but agree.

I agree with most of what you said WillRain, but you should practice what you preach a little. Of the 18 pitchers you listed there, maybe you should distinguish between 'elites' and 'average' guys like you suggested that I do. I would think that list of 18 would be wittled down quite a bit.

Getting Alex Gordon at this stage would be an absolute steal for a club in the Jays' situation.

The Royals should really have him in the lineup everyday - let him work on stuff, let him struggle, work on his psychological makeup.

It's far too early to give up on anyone with his type of college and minor league resume.

Brandon Wood is someone who might also be 'hitting' himself into the bargain bin in the near future. His offensive upside isn't what Gordon's is, but his upside with the glove is even higher. He has the added benefit of probably being cheaper if LAAoA does pull the plug.

The OPS+ numbers are nice and similar and all, but the number of minor leaguers that you can expect to contribute at an MVP-level is VERY small. For what it's worth, the number of players who were better than Youkilis in the minors is much higher than the number of players better than him in the majors.

Youkilis also contributes top-level defense at 1B, and adequate defense at 3B. Everything I've heard says not to expect that from Wallace. Pardon my pessimism, and I hope Wallace can be as good as Youkilis, but I definitely do not expect it.

I think it's reasonable to expect Wallace to be as good or better than Youklis.

I disagree, although this may in the end be a quibble over the semantics of reasonable. My problem is that you seem to be starting the analysis with Youkilis' minor league performance as the baseline, whereas I would argue you need to start the analysis with Wallace's minor league numbers.

Most prospects with Youkilis's minor league numbers do not develop into the player he's become. Youkilis always looked like a useful major leaguer, but at no point, based on the numbers you cited and others, did he look like a 140 OPS+ major leaguer. Thus, I'd argue it's a mistake to start with Youkilis, because of players with comparable minor league stats, 60% of them never make the majors and 20% become average or below major leaguers (I am completely making this numbers up, but you get my drift....).

Thus, I think you need to look at Wallace's minor league numbers and try to figure out what percentage of players with his profile become useful major leaguers and to what degree. I wouldn't doubt that it's a substantial number, but I also suspect a majority do not become Kevin Youkilis. So, while it's reasonable in one sense to say Wallace has a chance of becoming Youkilis, in another sense it's much more realistic to say that Wallace has a 20% chance of becoming Youkilis, a 20% chance of being Carlos Pena (dissimilar players, but that level of performance) and a 40% of being in the LaRoche-Overbay zone and a 20% chance of flaming out or whatever.

By your method, one could reasonably say that half of the Jays minor league outfielders will become Denard Span, based on Span's minor league numbers.

For what it's worth, the number of players who were better than Youkilis in the minors is much higher than the number of players better than him in the majors.

Sure, but it's not like Wallace comes without a pedigree. Lay aside Youk if you want, Wallace still comes with more praise and expectations than Lind ever did.

Youkilis also contributes top-level defense at 1B, and adequate defense at 3B.

I made no reference to compareable defense. Only offense.

Thus, I think you need to look at Wallace's minor league numbers and try to figure out what percentage of players with his profile become useful major leaguers and to what degree.

I don't disagree with that necessarily. I don't think that that being true necessarily contridicts my claim that it's not unreasonable to suggest Wallace could be a comperable hitter to Youk.

To expand the thought - it's POSSIBLE  Wallace could be a comperable hitter to Tex but I think it would stretch credibility to discuss that possibility.

I'd presume that to be a small enough possibility as to be irrelevant to this line of conversation.

I'm absolutely in agreement with the assertion that MOST "top prospects" don't live up to their projected ceilings, but that doesn't keep pretty much anyone from discussing a Jay Bruce or a Colby Rasmus or a Matt Weiters in terms of their potential ceiling.

how many people EVER talked about Weiters as a guy who you couldn't count on to be a top notch guy and when discussing the O's future wouldn't afford themselves the optimism that he would do so?

How many even here, when discussing the O's future temper their enthusiasum for him, or those three young pitchers and say "there's just as much or more chance Weiters hits like Zaun as there is he hits like McCann"?

Pretty much no one.

so I'm not sure why we should poor-mouth the chances of ONLY jays prospects.

Thank you Thomas, for saying it better than I could.

Will, you said "produce" in your original post comparing the two. Is that only offense? You certainly did not explicitly state anything about comparable defense, but even if Wallace were to hit exactly like Youkilis, he definitely would not "produce" that same.

(As for Adam Lind, I certainly did not expect him to produce at that level either. Call it pessimism or realism, but most prospects fail; it's the nature of the game. Maybe it has to do with being a Bills fan too: You lower your expectations to the point that it no longer hurts when they're not met.)

Kevin Youkilis isn't really helpful to the discussion.  He was promoted very slowly, and had a very peculiar pattern for a tall strong guy with moderate athleticism- excellent plate control and very slow developing power.  A positive similar would be someone like Fred McGriff.  In the minors, McGriff had good power, but struck out a lot and didn't walk as much as you would like until age 22.  There are signs that Wallace might be on this path a year later.  If Wallace is called up in mid-season, he has a chance to match McGriff's 1987, albeit that he would be 3 months older.  As Thomas indicated, that is the bright side.