Win Probability Added

Fangraphs.com calculates it. It basically shows how much you helped your team win by pitching or hitting (no defense, but you can find it yourself if there was a great play).

With all the scribes in Dunedin to see Hechavarria there were several updates on injuries.

Jesse Litsch pitched in an extended spring training game this week.  He has three more of those scheduled before he appears in a regular minor league game in the middle of May.  He then would be on track to join the Jays by mid-June if there is a spot for him.

Marc Rzepczynski was pitching batting practice.  Zep was injured about three and a half weeks ago and he was supposed to be out for 4-6 weeks so he is also close to appearing in a regular minor league game.  The Star also noted that Scott Richmond and Shawn Hill pitched in the bullpen.  It was Richmond's third time throwing off a mound since he went on the DL so he is probably further behind Litsch and Zep.

Frasor still looks like the best option to setup right now.

Ok, I'll ask - Is this a serious statement, or is this just a polite heckling after a frustrating half-inning? If serious... Why?

I don't understand having Frasor pitch the 8th last night at all. If he's pitching poorly enough to be removed from the closer's role (and it's amusing to me how Frasor's confidence doesn't matter when it comes to stripping him of his job a week into the season), he has zero business being brought in to face the 3-4-5 of Tampa's lineup.

Base loaded 2 outs, Choate against Lewis. Man, this screams for Ruiz.

There is no reason for Ruiz to be on the roster if he won't be used to PH in situations like that one and if Cito has no faith in the Lind/Snider corner look. Might as well carry Raul Chavez or somebody like Kyle Phillips so you can have an emergency C on the team, and give Ruiz a chance to play for another team or if you're not interested in that then keep his bat ready for an injury by playing him every day in Vegas.

And Downs gives up runs even less often. He just couldn't hit his spots today. That happens. Unless you're arguing that Frasor just let up his run the day before, in which case, he's due for his scoreless outing. By that logic, Choate was due to get a RH hitter out... Kidding.

As for The setup guy, Frasor has pitched in the 8th 3 times (6 in the 9th, which is why that's low), Downs 4 times, Janssen 4 times and Camp twice. It seems that Gaston's being pretty egalitarian, letting the pitchers find their roles. If / when someone steps up, they'll get the majority of the time. Downs is as good of a choice as any - he hasn't experienced any real platoon disadvantage over the past 3 years - he's good vs righties and lefties. If you're talking about making a move for every last platoon advantage, well, I agree with the theory that if you make enough pitching changes you'll eventually find the pitcher that'll lose you the game that night.

Before yesterday's game, Lind was in a little 1 for 14 slump and was looking a little timid at the plate. It's a very encouraging sign that he was able to take a changeup on the outer half of the plate out to LF for a HR; Ashby pointed out directly prior to the HR that Lind staying back on the ball and taking it the other way is the indication he's going good. This offense needs him to duplicate that 2009 success to have any chance at being a winning ballclub.

Cecil relied pretty heavily on the changeup in Friday's game, and supposedly it's because he sliced his hand in spring training and was forced to only throw fastballs and changeups and ditch his curveball. Both Cito and Brett this injury was the best thing to ever happen to him because it helped him build confidence in a secondary pitch he may not have been as comfortable with, and the early PitchFX data between seasons certainly shows this. When he was drafted everybody said the slider was already MLB ready and could dominate LHB but that he'd need to develop more pitches to become a starter that could keep RHB off balance as well. Cecil doesn't have that dominating fastball so his ability to locate curveballs and changeups will be critical to the type of success he can have, and here's hoping that the early changeup work pays off and he keeps his spot in the rotation for all of 2010, showing the Jays they have mid-rotation starter for years to come.

Overbay gets benched the day after he has a homerun, a single, a stolen base, an intentional walk and no strike out.

I cringe reading this. Price is a dominating LHP and Overbay has started every game this year; this is smartly giving your guy a day off, not benching him.

This will be a very interesting test of the theory that Ruiz can play a perfectly adequate 1B.   And an equally interesting test of the theory that 1B, rather than DH, is the place to get Ruiz some playing time.

Once the Jays acquired Lewis I'm not sure there's an argument to be made that Ruiz deserves regular ABs vs. RHP, because that would mean somebody from Overbay/Snider/Lind/Lewis is losing those ABs. His role should be the team's DH vs. LHP with JB and EE handling the infield corners in the defensive alignment the coaching staff deems most optimal, and he should be allowed to PH for Lewis, JMac, McCoy, and the catchers, guys who are used to that sort of thing and don't lose confidence because of it.

3 platoons now? Interesting. Also of note, Overbay gets benched the day after he has a homerun, a single, a stolen base, an intentional walk and no strike out.

It's not a platoon, unless it's a Price-esque (read: nasty lefty) / Everybody Else platoon.

Scott Downs has always been an effective situational lefty i.e, bring him in against a tough lefty slugger in the 7th or 8th and then get him out of there. Cito doesn't seem to grasp this concept.. He expects Downs to deal with an entire inning including 2 or 3 straight RH hitters. This does not work with a situational lefty. Cito is still lacking in on-field management ability especially in handling his pitchers. The Downs situation is just too obvious and he is paying for it.

Unfortunately, this isn't really the case. His platoon split since becoming a full-time reliever don't really indicate a platoon split (vs LH, .215/.281/.313, vs RH, .236/.312/.319). In a sample size nine times larger than the one game these reactions are based on, Downs has a vLH/vRH split of .250/.400/.750 vs .333/.333/.389.

He isn't a situational lefty. He has had a 3 year run of quality setup work. Gaston understands this, and used him accordingly. Sometimes it's not going to work - that's baseball. There are going to be plenty of reasons to complain about Gaston throughout the year; we don't need to beat him up over the decisions he gets right.

He expects Downs to deal with an entire inning including 2 or 3 straight RH hitters.

Over the 175 innings Downs pitched from 2007-2009, his LHB/RHB OPS splits have been:
2007: 548/639
2008: 540/625
2009: 786/643

Over this period, he has certainly shown that he is more than a mere LOOGY.

I'm happy to join you in criticizing many of Gaston's decisions (or, more frequently, non-decisions), but I can't agree that this particular instance warrants it.

Assuming that Downs is indeed healthy, I can see the argument for having him face Longoria/Pena/Upton. Neither Longoria nor Upton have extreme career platoon splits (Longoria: 875/889, Upton 774/760) whereas Pena does (761/900). Downs' lefthandedness was primarily targetted at Pena, with no legitimate reason to worry about it against Longoria and Upton.

Now, it may be argued that Downs is still showing the effects of his injury from last season and is, over all, not what he once was. Prior to going on the DL last season in June, his ERA was 1.98 (in about 27 innings). Upon returning from the DL, his ERA was 4.66 (in about 18 innings). Perhaps the Downs we are seeing is this wobblier version (and perhaps these ERA splits are simply the result of small samples and the vagaries of randomness).