You don't feel taken and you don't feel abused.
Oh, who the hell am I kidding? PLAYOFFS!
Blue Jays 3, Rangers 1.
C.J. Wilson outduels Ricky Romero for seven innings, exiting with a 1-0 lead, and Neftali Feliz adds another zero in the eighth. But you can't keep Vernon Wells down forever. Wells breaks the Jays' goose egg in the ninth with a bomb off Frank Francisco. Then the floodgates open. Lyle Overbay, built for speed, triples. Edwin Encarnacion cashes him with a sac fly. Alex Gonzalez and Mike McCoy add hits to make it 3-1. Jason Frasor picks up the save.
Question: How many homers does Wells need to hit to make sure he doesn't get booed at the home opener?
Romero threw seven efficient and effective innings at the Rangers. He gave up one 'earned' run on a dubious wild pitch, K'd 4, walked 2, and surrendered five hits. By my unofficial count, Romero induced groundballs on 12 of 21 balls in play, an excellent 57.1% rate. (League average - I know I say this all the time, but I don't think it's common knowledge yet - is around 44%. Roy Halladay, career, is at 56.2%. Ted Lilly is 34.5%.) Romero threw 3.77 pitches per batter, which is just about average. Even if you want to apply a getaway day discount, those numbers, against a strong offense in a hitters' ballpark, are impressive to me.
Janssen pitched a scoreless inning. He had three strikeouts, a walk and a wild pitch. If only he could harness his remarkable stuff, and maybe pitch to contact a bit more...
On an unrelated note, three games into the season is as good a time as any for a check of the Blue Jays WPA Leaderboard! (Unofficial, because Fangraphs hasn't updated yet as of this writing. These numbers should be accurate to within 0.01 WPA.)
Position players:
WELLS 0.82
Lind 0.08
Overbay 0.07
Encarnacion 0.02
Hill 0.01
Gonzalez 0.01
McCoy 0.00
Bautista -0.01
Snider -0.09
Molina -0.12
Buck -0.16
Pitchers:
Romero 0.23
Gregg 0.16
Downs 0.15
Janssen 0.03
Marcum -0.03
Tallet -0.04
Frasor -0.63
I mean, was Marcum terrible on Monday, or what?
Anyway, Wells is mashing and the pitchers have delivered three quality starts in a hostile environment. So far, so good. This is as good a time as ever to ponder Kevin Gregg's role and make up hypothetical scenarios around him. Skip the next four paragraphs if you don't care.
Gregg looked very poised on Wednesday. He did his job with aplomb. His changeup looks very effective; his slider looks erratic. It's pretty when it works. But he was fortunate to K Josh Hamilton swinging through a gyroball in the strike zone. That won't work all year in the big league. (Right, singular.) I wonder if he should just ditch the breaking ball and only use it for show. I haven't seen much of him, but I feel like he could get by without it. I was a harsh critic of the Gregg signing, and it'll take a lot to convince me he's worth the money. But as a veteran power arm with the ability to get lefties out, he has his uses. Do I trust Cito Gaston to take advantage? I don't want to respond to that question because it might affect Cito's confidence.
On the same topic, I feel like a righty reliever with small reverse splits is a useful bullet to have on a team with lots of lefty starters. Like, consider this You Be The Manager situation.
You're facing the Orioles on the road. Romero started. Baltimore's normal lineup is in, except Luke Scott was given a day off. Bottom of the 8th, two out, Jays up 3-1, Orioles on the corners, DH Nolan Reimold's spot comes up. Baltimore's bench consists of Scott, Neifi Perez, Brad Ausmus and Bubba Crosby. On deck is Matt Wieters, 1-1 with two walks, and coming off a four-homer game last night. In the hole is 1996 Brady Anderson.
If you leave Romero in, he faces Reimold and you lose the platoon battle. If you bring in Downs, at least he's fresh, but the problem persists. If you bring in Frasor, Baltimore will pinch-hit Scott and gain a sizable edge. If you bring in Gregg, who's tougher on lefties, Baltimore should probably just let Reimold bat. But there's a very good chance they will reflexively pinch-hit Scott anyway (gotta protect his confidence!). And thus you might gain the most favorable matchup by bringing in KG. Whether Gregg is actually good enough at pitching to justify putting him in over Frasor and Downs in this situation is another matter entirely. We'll have a better idea in six weeks. Also an open question is how often you can correctly guess what the other manager's strategy is. It's an interesting game theory problem.
Today, the Jays really are in Baltimore for the Orioles' home opener. Brandon Morrow makes his Toronto debut against one of 2009's most surprising breakout stars, Brad Bergesen. There wasn't much in Bergesen's minor-league track record to suggest he could pitch well in the AL East. But he averaged 6.5 innings over 19 starts with 12.5% K, 6.2% BB, 50.1% GB and a very nice 3.43 ERA. He's a sinker-slider guy with sinker-slider splits. To ease him into 2010, the Jays will kindly pencil at least six righty hitters into their lineup.
Morrow will be on an 85-pitch leash. In related news, Morrow's career P/PA sits at 4.1.
Baltimore is 1-2 after stealing the finale of a tightly contested three-game set in Tampa Bay. Wieters is 6/12 with a homer. Brian Roberts is 2/14; Miguel Tejada, 1/12 with two beanballs.
The O's lineup will probably be Roberts, Jones, Markakis, Tejada, Scott, Wieters, Reimold, Garrett Atkins and Izturis. Their other bats are Wigginton (lefty masher), Lugo (Jay killa), Pie (almost homered off James Shields Tuesday), and backup catcher Craig Tatum (bats right, tears do not cure cancer). Bullpen: Mike Gonzalez*, Jim Johnson, Cla Meredith, Will Ohman*, Matt Albers, Lurch*, and Jason Berken.
Game time is 3:05. I think I've had enough of these weekday games. Orioles are a -135 favorite. Enjoy.
Oh, who the hell am I kidding? PLAYOFFS!
Blue Jays 3, Rangers 1.
C.J. Wilson outduels Ricky Romero for seven innings, exiting with a 1-0 lead, and Neftali Feliz adds another zero in the eighth. But you can't keep Vernon Wells down forever. Wells breaks the Jays' goose egg in the ninth with a bomb off Frank Francisco. Then the floodgates open. Lyle Overbay, built for speed, triples. Edwin Encarnacion cashes him with a sac fly. Alex Gonzalez and Mike McCoy add hits to make it 3-1. Jason Frasor picks up the save.
Question: How many homers does Wells need to hit to make sure he doesn't get booed at the home opener?
Romero threw seven efficient and effective innings at the Rangers. He gave up one 'earned' run on a dubious wild pitch, K'd 4, walked 2, and surrendered five hits. By my unofficial count, Romero induced groundballs on 12 of 21 balls in play, an excellent 57.1% rate. (League average - I know I say this all the time, but I don't think it's common knowledge yet - is around 44%. Roy Halladay, career, is at 56.2%. Ted Lilly is 34.5%.) Romero threw 3.77 pitches per batter, which is just about average. Even if you want to apply a getaway day discount, those numbers, against a strong offense in a hitters' ballpark, are impressive to me.
Janssen pitched a scoreless inning. He had three strikeouts, a walk and a wild pitch. If only he could harness his remarkable stuff, and maybe pitch to contact a bit more...
On an unrelated note, three games into the season is as good a time as any for a check of the Blue Jays WPA Leaderboard! (Unofficial, because Fangraphs hasn't updated yet as of this writing. These numbers should be accurate to within 0.01 WPA.)
Position players:
WELLS 0.82
Lind 0.08
Overbay 0.07
Encarnacion 0.02
Hill 0.01
Gonzalez 0.01
McCoy 0.00
Bautista -0.01
Snider -0.09
Molina -0.12
Buck -0.16
Pitchers:
Romero 0.23
Gregg 0.16
Downs 0.15
Janssen 0.03
Marcum -0.03
Tallet -0.04
Frasor -0.63
I mean, was Marcum terrible on Monday, or what?
Anyway, Wells is mashing and the pitchers have delivered three quality starts in a hostile environment. So far, so good. This is as good a time as ever to ponder Kevin Gregg's role and make up hypothetical scenarios around him. Skip the next four paragraphs if you don't care.
Gregg looked very poised on Wednesday. He did his job with aplomb. His changeup looks very effective; his slider looks erratic. It's pretty when it works. But he was fortunate to K Josh Hamilton swinging through a gyroball in the strike zone. That won't work all year in the big league. (Right, singular.) I wonder if he should just ditch the breaking ball and only use it for show. I haven't seen much of him, but I feel like he could get by without it. I was a harsh critic of the Gregg signing, and it'll take a lot to convince me he's worth the money. But as a veteran power arm with the ability to get lefties out, he has his uses. Do I trust Cito Gaston to take advantage? I don't want to respond to that question because it might affect Cito's confidence.
On the same topic, I feel like a righty reliever with small reverse splits is a useful bullet to have on a team with lots of lefty starters. Like, consider this You Be The Manager situation.
You're facing the Orioles on the road. Romero started. Baltimore's normal lineup is in, except Luke Scott was given a day off. Bottom of the 8th, two out, Jays up 3-1, Orioles on the corners, DH Nolan Reimold's spot comes up. Baltimore's bench consists of Scott, Neifi Perez, Brad Ausmus and Bubba Crosby. On deck is Matt Wieters, 1-1 with two walks, and coming off a four-homer game last night. In the hole is 1996 Brady Anderson.
If you leave Romero in, he faces Reimold and you lose the platoon battle. If you bring in Downs, at least he's fresh, but the problem persists. If you bring in Frasor, Baltimore will pinch-hit Scott and gain a sizable edge. If you bring in Gregg, who's tougher on lefties, Baltimore should probably just let Reimold bat. But there's a very good chance they will reflexively pinch-hit Scott anyway (gotta protect his confidence!). And thus you might gain the most favorable matchup by bringing in KG. Whether Gregg is actually good enough at pitching to justify putting him in over Frasor and Downs in this situation is another matter entirely. We'll have a better idea in six weeks. Also an open question is how often you can correctly guess what the other manager's strategy is. It's an interesting game theory problem.
Today, the Jays really are in Baltimore for the Orioles' home opener. Brandon Morrow makes his Toronto debut against one of 2009's most surprising breakout stars, Brad Bergesen. There wasn't much in Bergesen's minor-league track record to suggest he could pitch well in the AL East. But he averaged 6.5 innings over 19 starts with 12.5% K, 6.2% BB, 50.1% GB and a very nice 3.43 ERA. He's a sinker-slider guy with sinker-slider splits. To ease him into 2010, the Jays will kindly pencil at least six righty hitters into their lineup.
Morrow will be on an 85-pitch leash. In related news, Morrow's career P/PA sits at 4.1.
Baltimore is 1-2 after stealing the finale of a tightly contested three-game set in Tampa Bay. Wieters is 6/12 with a homer. Brian Roberts is 2/14; Miguel Tejada, 1/12 with two beanballs.
The O's lineup will probably be Roberts, Jones, Markakis, Tejada, Scott, Wieters, Reimold, Garrett Atkins and Izturis. Their other bats are Wigginton (lefty masher), Lugo (Jay killa), Pie (almost homered off James Shields Tuesday), and backup catcher Craig Tatum (bats right, tears do not cure cancer). Bullpen: Mike Gonzalez*, Jim Johnson, Cla Meredith, Will Ohman*, Matt Albers, Lurch*, and Jason Berken.
Game time is 3:05. I think I've had enough of these weekday games. Orioles are a -135 favorite. Enjoy.
