The Jays have signed Adam Lind to a four year $18 million contract with three club options that could keep him in Toronto through the 2016 season.
Link
Link
More details at MLBTR: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/04/blue-jays-sign-adam-lind-.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29
So 4 years for $17.5MM maximum for his 27-30 seasons, then options each year thereafter. The Jays are getting a good deal for the next 4 years for which should be the majority of Lind's peak AND minimizing their risk down the road.
The Jays will only be paying him $31MM max for 6 years (I suspect the $18MM option isn't being picked up 6 years from now).
Even if he's only a DH (and the dollar amounts seem to indicate that), it seems like an excellent, excellent deal to me.
And it's a nice departure from the Alex Rios contract (fully guaranteed for 6 years and a no-trade).
What will be interesting to me is when and who AA will extend among the pitchers.
Lind will earn $500K in 2010, then
- $5MM each year from 2011-2013.
- The 2014 option is worth $7MM with a $2MM buyout,
- The 2015 option is worth $7.5MM with a $1MM buyout, and
- The 2016 option is worth $18MM with a $500K buyout
So 4 years for $17.5MM maximum for his 27-30 seasons, then options each year thereafter. The Jays are getting a good deal for the next 4 years for which should be the majority of Lind's peak AND minimizing their risk down the road.
The Jays will only be paying him $31MM max for 6 years (I suspect the $18MM option isn't being picked up 6 years from now).
Even if he's only a DH (and the dollar amounts seem to indicate that), it seems like an excellent, excellent deal to me.
And it's a nice departure from the Alex Rios contract (fully guaranteed for 6 years and a no-trade).
What will be interesting to me is when and who AA will extend among the pitchers.
The 2016 season is an $8MM option, not $18MM. $38.5MM max for the 7 years.
I count $38m.
I'm surprised by the low amounts of the club options. I guess it's DH pricing.
The Jays are getting a good deal for the next 4 years for which should
be the majority of Lind's peak
Are they? They guaranteed him 18m, and I can't see him making more than around 22m even if he sustains his 2009 performance over the same time frame. This only becomes a great deal if he's good enough to make the Jays pick up an option.
Are they? They guaranteed him 18m, and I can't see him making more than around 22m even if he sustains his 2009 performance over the same time frame. This only becomes a great deal if he's good enough to make the Jays pick up an option.
David Ortiz' first year in Boston (2003) was almost exactly what Lind did last season. The two seasons are essentially identical - the most significant difference is that Ortiz was two years older. The Red Sox promptly signed Ortiz to a four year $25 million deal. And they would end redoing that deal halfway through, extending it through 2010 with an option for next year, and kicking in a lot more money.
So my first thought is - Adam Lind might need a new agent.
So my first thought is - Adam Lind might need a new agent.
The above didn't happen (according to Cot's), and their situations were very different. Ortiz got 950k in Arb1 from Minnesota, 1.25m as a FA in his Arb2 year, and then settled for 4.6m in Arb3 after his first year in Boston. During his second year in Boston (2004) in May he was guaranteed 12.5m for his first 2 FA years, and gave the Sox a 7.75m 2007 option. If anything, Ortiz's depressed Arb3 salary of 4.6m, when he had already made 1.25m the year before (as opposed to Lind's MLB minimum) paints this signing with a poorer brush.
This is an insanely good deal, especially as the last three years only need to be taken up one at a time. A steal, and a hearty "well done" from me to Anthopoulos.
92-93 is much more likely to be right on the Ortiz contract than me - Cots is far more reliable than me hitting the Google, and why don't I have it bookmarked anyway? Why do I always forget it even exists? Silly me...
Are we having some server issues?
Are we having some server issues?
This is a good deal and I don't see much to criticize. The real value lies in the three option years, which are reasonable with regards to both Lind's salary and the buyout amounts. Also, he doesn't need to slug .550 again to make this a worthwhile risk, even considering he's going to DH in 80% of his appearances.
I think there is very little chance Lind doesn't earn an amount close to this through his three arbitration years and the risk of overpaying him by a couple of million between 2011-2013 is outweighed by the value that the team potentially gains at the back end of the contract. I think he'll earn his money through the guaranteed years, as well. This isn't a Longoria-type steal, but I'm a fan of locking up high-end young players to deals like this and I'm glad Anthopolous didn't let the Hinske experience jade his view towards these contracts.
I think there is very little chance Lind doesn't earn an amount close to this through his three arbitration years and the risk of overpaying him by a couple of million between 2011-2013 is outweighed by the value that the team potentially gains at the back end of the contract. I think he'll earn his money through the guaranteed years, as well. This isn't a Longoria-type steal, but I'm a fan of locking up high-end young players to deals like this and I'm glad Anthopolous didn't let the Hinske experience jade his view towards these contracts.
This is a good deal and I don't see much to criticize. The real value lies in the three option years, which are reasonable with regards to both Lind's salary and the buyout amounts. Also, he doesn't need to slug .550 again to make this a worthwhile risk, even considering he's going to DH in 80% of his appearances.
I think there is very little chance Lind doesn't earn an amount close to this through his three arbitration years and the risk of overpaying him by a couple of million between 2011-2013 is outweighed by the value that the team potentially gains at the back end of the contract. I think he'll earn his money through the guaranteed years, as well. This isn't a Longoria-type steal, but I'm a fan of locking up high-end young players to deals like this and I'm glad Anthopolous didn't let the Hinske experience jade his view towards these contracts.
I think there is very little chance Lind doesn't earn an amount close to this through his three arbitration years and the risk of overpaying him by a couple of million between 2011-2013 is outweighed by the value that the team potentially gains at the back end of the contract. I think he'll earn his money through the guaranteed years, as well. This isn't a Longoria-type steal, but I'm a fan of locking up high-end young players to deals like this and I'm glad Anthopolous didn't let the Hinske experience jade his view towards these contracts.
Hard to compare the two deals because of timing. Ortiz was signed in the midst of an economic boom and Lind was signed in the midst of a slow recovery. I believe that has a lot to do with the difference.
I'm with Thomas. I see this as a pretty fair deal for both sides, with Lind getting his long-term security and the Jays earning valuable options for when they plan on contending. I'm just not sure how valuable those options are when I see Adam Dunn's offensive consistency earn him only 10m as a 29 year old free agent - isn't it possible the market will continue to value things like defense and speed and 8m will be a 31 year old Lind's market value in 2014? That being said, there isn't much risk involved when the most you are paying him is 5m in any given year - the 2010 Jays are eating 16m in salary. However, I certainly don't see this as an "insanely good deal", and I'm rather amused that Craig B of all people was the one to make that assertion, in light of this past week's article.
I like this deal. Good for Lind, good for the Jays and good for the fans.
"It will mean a lot for my parents, for my future kids, just so they can do what they want and they can go to the schools that they want and they can breathe for the rest of their lives," said Lind, who went 1 for 4 and scored a run against Houston.
I like his attitude. It's good to see some people can feel contented after 2 or 3 dozen million dollars.
I like his attitude. It's good to see some people can feel contented after 2 or 3 dozen million dollars.
So my first thought is - Adam Lind might need a new agent.
too late now!
I'm in the camp that this is an excellent deal.
Maysui, for instance, was a FA, was much older, and is presumably a lesser hitter at this point and even in a depressed market got $6 million. It's hard to speak athoritatively to what his arb total would be but it seems to me that if a bum like Bautista can score $2.4 in his first go round then you wouldn't be far off to guess that Lind's three would go something like 4-6-9 or some such. and having the chance to pick up FA years at less than 10 makes it that much better.
I would say it's a STEAL but it is definately a fine bit of work by AA. Unles he inexplicably goes off a cliff like Hafner, it should be hard to not get great value for this signing.
too late now!
I'm in the camp that this is an excellent deal.
Maysui, for instance, was a FA, was much older, and is presumably a lesser hitter at this point and even in a depressed market got $6 million. It's hard to speak athoritatively to what his arb total would be but it seems to me that if a bum like Bautista can score $2.4 in his first go round then you wouldn't be far off to guess that Lind's three would go something like 4-6-9 or some such. and having the chance to pick up FA years at less than 10 makes it that much better.
I would say it's a STEAL but it is definately a fine bit of work by AA. Unles he inexplicably goes off a cliff like Hafner, it should be hard to not get great value for this signing.
So my first thought is - Adam Lind might need a new agent.
I think Lind made the absolute right decision in signing this contract. If he maintains this level would he receive more in a few years than the options will give him? Of course.
But that's an "if." It's cute to have faith in your abilities, but bad things happen. This is a chance to take care of his family and saying no to a guarenteed 18 million dollars, because you might have to give a discount on your first 3 years of free agency should be insignificant.
I am thrilled about this contract, now hopefully Snider has a big season and the Jays lock him down.
I think this is a solid deal for the Jays. He has a good minor league track record and produced over a full season in the majors. Based on this and his age, I don't expect his performance to really collapse. While I can't predict what the market for DH's will be in the future, it should be noted the Angels were able to sign Matsui for only 6 million and this is less than all 3 of the option years for Lind.
it should be noted the Angels were able to sign Matsui for only 6 million and this is less than all 3 of the option years for Lind.
$6 million today should be at least $8 million in four years simply accounting for inflation.
WillRain, I am fascinated that you are in the camp that is down on Bautista (which Mike Wilner also seems to be a card carrier in). I get that he has not done very well in past, but a "bum like Bautista"? Isn't there any significant chance that he has, as claimed, made an adjustment in his swing that has led to his outstanding spring and his last few weeks in 2009? I know that the odds are usually against this kind of improvement, but what makes you so sure?
Cost certainty can be good too. I don't think Jays fans mind some extra guaranteed money to have FA years as options.
Other good news, Korea appears to be off the MLB blackout list. China, Indonesia and the Phillipines are now screwed over though by being subject to it.
Isn't there any significant chance that he has, as claimed, made an
adjustment in his swing that has led to his outstanding spring and his
last few weeks in 2009? I know that the odds are usually against this
kind of improvement, but what makes you so sure?
In this particular context, Bautista got the $2.4 million arb-eligible contract LONG BEFORE he recent professed adjustment - so "bum like Bautista" in the context of discussing contracts isn't the guy who got hot last September, but the guy who was on the fringes of even being in the majors for his whole previous career.
Now, beyond that, do I disbelieve in JB?
Yeah.
Because he has been simply HORRID against RHP pretty much his whole major league career. As the lest busy half of a platoon - say with Overbay, i love me some Bautista. but not as a full-timer.
Now, is it POSSIBLE he suddenly solved that problem at this late date last September? Yeah.
Is it POSSIBLE that he just really really likes leading off and that helps him do better? Yeah.
But likely? Nah, it's far more likely he happened to get a hot streak at just the time of year when a hitter is likely to see the weakest pitching of the season. That happens a lot more often than a guy suddenly turning his career completely around after over 1900 major league plate appearances.
Bautista had 100 at bats at the end of last year in which he posted an OPS of 1.020
Even those who believe he might have figured something out clearly don't think he can sustain that.
But consider this for comparison - in 2009, rod Barajas, between April 12 and may 19, had 101 at bats, during which he had an OPS of .923
This sort of streak happens all the time, I'm going to have to see a lot more before I join the BAS.
Again, to be clear, I LIKE Baustista in the proper role - I think he's a useful little guy to have on the bench. But as an everyday starter and lead-off hitter?
Oh hell no.
In this particular context, Bautista got the $2.4 million arb-eligible contract LONG BEFORE he recent professed adjustment - so "bum like Bautista" in the context of discussing contracts isn't the guy who got hot last September, but the guy who was on the fringes of even being in the majors for his whole previous career.
Now, beyond that, do I disbelieve in JB?
Yeah.
Because he has been simply HORRID against RHP pretty much his whole major league career. As the lest busy half of a platoon - say with Overbay, i love me some Bautista. but not as a full-timer.
Now, is it POSSIBLE he suddenly solved that problem at this late date last September? Yeah.
Is it POSSIBLE that he just really really likes leading off and that helps him do better? Yeah.
But likely? Nah, it's far more likely he happened to get a hot streak at just the time of year when a hitter is likely to see the weakest pitching of the season. That happens a lot more often than a guy suddenly turning his career completely around after over 1900 major league plate appearances.
Bautista had 100 at bats at the end of last year in which he posted an OPS of 1.020
Even those who believe he might have figured something out clearly don't think he can sustain that.
But consider this for comparison - in 2009, rod Barajas, between April 12 and may 19, had 101 at bats, during which he had an OPS of .923
This sort of streak happens all the time, I'm going to have to see a lot more before I join the BAS.
Again, to be clear, I LIKE Baustista in the proper role - I think he's a useful little guy to have on the bench. But as an everyday starter and lead-off hitter?
Oh hell no.
I don't mind Bautista as lead off. He should easily maintain an OBP over 350. I know 400 would be better, but Bautista gives you 15+ homeruns.
Once Wallace takes over at first and Snider starts to swing the bat, I think Wells becomes a serious candidate for lead off. Would he rather lead or bat in the bottom of the order?
Anybody knows why Jesus Merchan was playing until the very last game?
Once Wallace takes over at first and Snider starts to swing the bat, I think Wells becomes a serious candidate for lead off. Would he rather lead or bat in the bottom of the order?
Anybody knows why Jesus Merchan was playing until the very last game?
He should easily maintain an OBP over 350.
You mean despite an OBP of .329 in his 2000 PAs?
Anybody knows why Jesus Merchan was playing until the very last game?I think they take a few guys for this kind of game at the end of the pre-season that aren't on the bubble (like Kyle Phillips) so that the guys that are don't get their hopes up.
I would like to see an Overbay/Bautista platoon leading off. Wells has never been very patient and getting on base is not his strong suit. He's only ever had two full seasons with an OBP over .350 and both of those were heavily batting average-driven. If Wells were to put up a .350 OBP this year, it'd likely be in a line of .300/.350/.500 in which case you'd much rather have him hitting 4th or 5th. While Overbay isn't a prototypical leadoff guy (lousy speed; he doesn't steal bases) he's the best high-OBP option the Jays have against righties. His career OBP vs. RHP is a very impressive .380.
My first thought on this deal was 'Josh Phelps' and hoping it wasn't an accurate thought.
At age 24 Phelps hit 309/362/562 for an OPS+ of 138 over 287 PA's. Baseball Prospectus put him on their cover and he looked to have a bright future. In 2003 he had an OPS+ of 113 over 453 PA's. That was his peak for playing time and his OPS+ wouldn't be north of 100 until 2007 (age 29) when he had a 135 over 183 PA. In 2008 he got just 36 PA's and spent 2009 in the minors (60 PA) and probably is retired now.
Lind at 24 had just 349 PA's in the majors hitting 282/316/439 OPS+ of 100, followed by 305/370/562 OPS+ of 144 at 25. However, at 25 he had 654 PA's which is about 200 more than Phelps ever got in a season. Unlike Phelps Lind has improved in his 2nd full (more or less) season in the majors. Will he keep this upward trend? Obviously AA feels so, I'm just glad JP didn't sign Phelps long term way back when.
At age 24 Phelps hit 309/362/562 for an OPS+ of 138 over 287 PA's. Baseball Prospectus put him on their cover and he looked to have a bright future. In 2003 he had an OPS+ of 113 over 453 PA's. That was his peak for playing time and his OPS+ wouldn't be north of 100 until 2007 (age 29) when he had a 135 over 183 PA. In 2008 he got just 36 PA's and spent 2009 in the minors (60 PA) and probably is retired now.
Lind at 24 had just 349 PA's in the majors hitting 282/316/439 OPS+ of 100, followed by 305/370/562 OPS+ of 144 at 25. However, at 25 he had 654 PA's which is about 200 more than Phelps ever got in a season. Unlike Phelps Lind has improved in his 2nd full (more or less) season in the majors. Will he keep this upward trend? Obviously AA feels so, I'm just glad JP didn't sign Phelps long term way back when.
I like Bautista, he has a good walk rate, so I could see him excelling in the leadoff role, especially if he can keep his OBP above .350. Of course he could fail, but I look at the last month of last season and this spring training and see some glimmer of home for a second coming of Scutaro.
I suppose I should be less surprised if Bautista pulls a Scutaro than I was at Scutaro pulling a Scutaro. Jose will turn 30 this year, so isn't as old as Marco was. Jose had a nice age-24 season at AA and a nice stint at AAA as a 25 year old. He's been a little slow to develop in spot duty as a pro - hasn't had 500 PA season.
And while I don't hold out high hopes for Bautista, I do acknowledge that Cito, in spite of his shortcomings, does seem to have a good eye for hitting talent.
I think that the Lind signing is great. It works out well for both player and team: Lind now has guaranteed financial security, and the team has a good hitter at a reasonable price.
I'm not worried about Lind collapsing like Phelps did, because Lind hits the ball where it's pitched and hits it hard to all fields. Phelps could absolutely crush a fastball in the hitting zone - one of his shots off Clemens may still be traveling somewhere in the troposphere - but he had a long swing and couldn't make adjustments.
As for Bautista, I don't know whether he'll work out, but I like the idea of asking a player to do things he already does. Bautista can work pitchers for walks, which is pretty much Job One for a leadoff man. Obviously, he needs to hit for a better average, but I don't really see any better alternatives in the Jays' lineup, unless McCoy can step up.
I'm not worried about Lind collapsing like Phelps did, because Lind hits the ball where it's pitched and hits it hard to all fields. Phelps could absolutely crush a fastball in the hitting zone - one of his shots off Clemens may still be traveling somewhere in the troposphere - but he had a long swing and couldn't make adjustments.
As for Bautista, I don't know whether he'll work out, but I like the idea of asking a player to do things he already does. Bautista can work pitchers for walks, which is pretty much Job One for a leadoff man. Obviously, he needs to hit for a better average, but I don't really see any better alternatives in the Jays' lineup, unless McCoy can step up.
That's a good way to put it. Jose does well at getting walks, and he'll be encouraged to do so at the top. If he can hit .250, but walk to a tune of a .360 OBP, I would consider that successful. He usually has decent pop too. Anything on top of that, like this revised hitting stance causing awesomeness, would be a bonus. And it's true, Bautista is just 30 so he's more into his "hitting prime" which is usually around 28-31 if I remember right. Scutaro was 33 so that was pretty improbable.
I preferred the old Gillick approach of not signing players long-term until they had just one year left before free-agency.
If it turns out the players perform "annoyingly" well and make a name for themselves in the playoffs and become more expensive, then you'll have the extra revenue to afford the bigger contracts anyway.
The real risk is tieing up millions in somebody who turns into a chump. I hope this doesn't happen to Mr. Lind, but it's an unnecessary risk for the Jays to be taking.
If it turns out the players perform "annoyingly" well and make a name for themselves in the playoffs and become more expensive, then you'll have the extra revenue to afford the bigger contracts anyway.
The real risk is tieing up millions in somebody who turns into a chump. I hope this doesn't happen to Mr. Lind, but it's an unnecessary risk for the Jays to be taking.