Of the four Jays players who got hits in this one, guess which one is now batting over .400?  If you guessed Adam Lind, you're right as he is just five points over the Mendoza Line at .205.  Bautista leads the way at .442... Should be "which one is NOT batting over 400".

Doc v. Blue Jays


I promised myself I wouldn't cry.

I felt that way when I was watch mlb.tv for his first spring start. On the upside, the next stage after the tears is usually thought to be acceptance. I'm there.

Go Phillies (the first team named after our wonderful corvid friends of the sky)!

Big advantage of Doc going to Philly is they are not one of the 'evil empires' (NYY, Red Sox, Mets) or a team I refuse to cheer on due to general principle (Atlanta & Cleveland) or a team I don't want to see win (Cubs due to their curse, White Sox as their owner was largely responsible for '94). By going to the NL he has a shot as silly stats and by being with a team with good offense he can get lots of W's to help his HOF case.

Plus the NL East has the Mets, Atlanta, Florida (ex-Expos owner) and Washington (ex-Expos)) - 4 teams I like to boo. That makes it a lot easier to cheer on Doc this year.

There hasn't been much talk about Jannsen.  He looks to be having an excellent spring.  Is there any chance of him getting into a bigger role (like a starting job or the closing gig)?

Rzep's out 6 weeks with a fractured finger, according to Bastian. Frasor's officially the closer, and Molina gets the backup catcher spot. I imagine everything else will be decided today - unless Cecil really blows everyone away, I expect he'll go to Vegas just because he's got options.

There hasn't been much talk about Jannsen.  He looks to be having an excellent spring.  Is there any chance of him getting into a bigger role (like a starting job or the closing gig)?

In terms of Janssen starting, I think there is a scenario where it happens, but he would have to be performing like he was in 2007 and the current starters would have to be performing very poorly or getting injured at an alarming rate. But even with that being said, there is just so much depth for the Jays to turn to; Litsch, Hill and Richmond are all candidates to return mid season.

He seems to me like he is better suited to be starting based on the fact that he throws 5 pitches, and tends to be efficient when healthy. But based on his performance as a starter vs. reliever, it seems unlikely, even though we haven't really seen him pitch healthy as a starter (in 2006 he claimed he was pitching with a bad back(?)). It also becomes far less likely to see him moved out of the bullpen if they trade away Frasor and/or Downs. 

Too bad for - and about - Scrabble. Serious pity.

However, I've had a hard time being too concerned about our 2010 starters when I'm convinced that by September 2011 our first four starters will be Drabek, Stewart, Jenkins and Alvarez - none of whom were in the running to start this season. We're really looking to see which of Cecil, Romero, Marcum, etc. are going to be our fifth starter and which are going to be trying to beat Camp, Janssen etc. out of their bullpen gigs.

I'm as enthusiastic about the young pitchers around here as anybody, but let's not forget how long it took the Carpenter/Escobar/Halladay trinity to establish themselves in the big leagues. The Jays' rotation has all the ingredients of a good, or maybe even great, one, but it could take some time and some unexpected changes to get to that stage.

Frankly, it's too late to stretch him out now, but as a speculative point - I'll bet if both he and Tallet started 30 games, Janssen would get noticeably better results

I don't like Tallet either.  I love that Jannssen is a 5 pitch pitcher, and I see him as a possibly good starter.  But it is a good point that they would need to stretch him and with his injury past, they are probably nervous about that.  Are there any rumours out there that he is 100%?

I definitely don't see him as a closer.  His stuff is not dominating enough.  But, I don't really love many of the other options, so he would probably have some chances...

 

Wow, people are getting swept away by Janssen's seven innings of spring baseball.   Shouldn't we wait and see if it's the real thing or not?  Seven innings is a rather small sample size. 

I'd love it if Janssen is back to his pre-injury brilliance.  But after all of his troubles last year, I'd rather wait a few months and see if he can maintain his spring form for a significant amount of the season.  To extrapolate wildly  from seven innings -- to decide that Janssen belongs in the starting rotation on the basis of seven innings against a motley collection of prospects and veterans in the spring -- is a tad premature.

Similarly, I'm a bit concerned that Mike McCoy might not live up to the expectations that were fueled by his 22 at-bats this spring.  Again, the sample size is incredibly small, and McCoy is a career minor-leaguer.  I'd love it if McCoy suddenly makes the leap to stalwart major-leaguer at the age of 29, but some skepticism is warranted until we see a few months of major-league performance.  It's a bit strange that the Jays have chosen a utility infielder to be the backup outfielder.  McCoy doesn't have as much pop in his bat as a Matt Stairs, or even a Bautista, so he's far from a conventional choice to be the 4th outfielder.  Maybe it's a bold decision that will succeed, but I'll wait and see.

By the way, yes, I'm aware that Janssen and McCoy have appeared in "B" games and other spring action that isn't recorded in their official spring stats.  I'm just saying that we shouldn't get carried away by their achievements in a few games.

"We're really looking to see which of Cecil, Romero, Marcum, etc. are going to be our fifth starter..."

I trust that was tongue-in-cheek. For those who took it seriously, repeat after me: "Young pitchers will break your heart."

Marcum needs to show he's healthy, and seems to have done it. Romero needs to show that last season was no fluke, and we're about to find out. Cecil is still a prospect, really, so it's hard to say, but his spring has taken a noticeable turn for the better.

The other kids you mention are all good, but let's be honest, Jays fans - they're not Strasburg (who is, note, starting in the minors) or even Chapman (ditto); that includes Drabek. Each of those kids mentioned has things to work on, and the mental game of constant adjustments in the majors to experience, then either get right or fail at. Meanwhile, don't forget injuries.

2011 is awfully soon to expect anything short of 4th-5th starter status for any of those prospects, and to be slotted #1 or #2 will take at least 3 years of proving themselves in the bigs.

Until then, and even then, we need major-league caliber pitching that can compete at a high level. It's way unlikely that anyone in the organization will ever be Doc, so we'll need more consistency to make up for it. 2010 is a development story. Has AA, as he puts it, "found something" in Purcey as the next Scott Downs? Which of Romero, Cecil, and Zep continue to develop, and how well? How do Marcum and Litsch perform, post injuries? Can McGowan find his health and a role (reliever, I hope)? Lots of questions, even before we start thinking about guys like Drabek, Tiny Tim, et. al.

Also in 2010, is Snider an explosion or a fizzle? Can we expect near-term help from prospects at catcher and/or 1st base? To me, those are big questions. With the pitching, we have so many that it seems like it's more about who will shake out, and how high the ceiling will be. With our position players, we're weaker by a long shot, and a very few hopes absolutely have to come through - or we'll be in long-term trouble that will require expensive trade/ FA fixes.

It's great to see Janssen pitching like this.  What a boost it would be to this organization if he can make a 100% recovery.  Not many will remember this, but when he was starting in 2006, he looked fantastic until he hurt his back.  I remember checking his WHIP after about 12 starts, and he had the 3rd best WHIP of all starting pitchers in baseball.  I forget who the 2 ahead of him were, but I think Johan Santana was one.  Then he got about 5 starts after he hurt his back and was a completely different pitcher.  It will be interesting to see if he can keep this up, and how he will be used by the team.  When he is right, he can be dominating.

With Rzepczynski out, it looks like the choice is either (1) move Tallet to the pen to give them a lefty, have Eveland and Cecil as the 4th and 5th starters, and demote Accardo (keeping Valdez, who is out of options), (2) the same as (1), but move Eveland into the pen as the lefty, or (3) keep Tallet/Eveland in the rotation, demote Cecil and keep both Accardo and Valdez.  I'd probably go with option 3 unless Cecil is lights out in his last exhibition start.

They now have 6 injured pitchers - McGowan, Rzepczynski, Litsch, Richmond, Hill, Hayhurst.  As they say, you can never have too much pitching.

IIRC, the Jays said Janssen would stay in the bullpen last year, when he struggled after coming off the DL. I'd expect he stays in the pen for 2010 at least, and maybe he'd get a look in the rotation next year if he looks durable and some of the kids struggle or get hurt.

Janssen has had back problems and a torn labrum repair.  I would not be enthusiastic about the possibility that he could make 34 starts in a season any time soon.

Wouldn't it be nice to have a tandem starter regime so that you could stretch pitchers like Janssen out mid-way in the season to 4 inning stints, once you were satisfied that they could manage the 2-3 inning role?  And that goes for Litsch, McGowan...

Second consecutive strong outing by Cecil, this time against a stacked Phillies lineup. That makes 11IP 8H 2ER 1BB 8SO in his last two appearances. Is it enough to earn a turn in the rotation? If so, we may very well be looking at a rotation that consists of the following pitchers with their respective ages on opening day in brackets:

Marcum (28), Romero (26), Morrow (25), Eveland (26), Cecil (23)

If you are going to build towards the future, a starting rotation with an average age under 26 is as good a place to start as any.

John Northey, you are a rational fellow.  So many fans have teams they "hate" for no apparent reasons, but your selections of teams to "boo" all make sense, and I have similar feelings.  Except I find it difficult too actually boo the Nationals.  Their ineptness is fascinating to watch.

Should be "which one is NOT batting over 400".

Noted and corrected, thank you! 

Here's a story from the Las Vegas Review-Journal that briefly mentions the possibility of the 51's and Blue Jays re-upping for another two year affilation agreement as the 51's struggle for a new stadium continues.

Is there a way to add signatures to the site? Mike Green needs a permanent one that advocates a massive overhaul of the modern pitching staff.

Not much to imply that the Jays want to re-up with Vegas in that article - just that nobody wants to be in Vegas.   A closer AAA city would be a huge asset for a GM willing to get creative with the roster in terms of frequent call-ups to rest tired arms in the pen or to provide another bat from the bench during interleague play.  What are our chances of getting a team closer to home?

Beeston was talking the other day about having a couple of minor league teams in Canada - that would be great!

I'm sure this will rankle all the old-timers around here, but I'm simply astonished at Craig B's "article" at THT today. Just wow. Here's the link.

Agreed with Mr. Green on all points.

A shut down reliever that can go 2-3 innings is drastically under-rated. As an organization, I would be developing relievers that are expected to go 2-3 all of the time instead of the Loogys and 1 inning guys. It would probably also free up one more spot for a position player.

A closer AAA city would be a huge asset for a GM willing to get creative with the roster in terms of frequent call-ups to rest tired arms in the pen or to provide another bat from the bench during interleague play.

OTOH, I'm sure YYZ <-> LAS flights are super-cheap!

Wow, people are getting swept away by Janssen's seven innings of spring baseball.   Shouldn't we wait and see if it's the real thing or not?  Seven innings is a rather small sample size.

My comment isn't based on his good spring (other than to the extent that it means he seems healthy) but on my longstanding opinion of his ability (and of Tallet's limits).  I wouldn't argue for Janssen in the rotation ahead of Marcum, Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Zep, or - in time - Drabek or Stewart or maybe even Mills)...which is why I'm not really that worried that he's not the stopgap instead of Tallet.

I just simply think that if both are healthy, Janssen is a much more capable starter.

Similarly, I'm a bit concerned that Mike McCoy might not live up to the expectations that were fueled by his 22 at-bats this spring.  Again, the sample size is incredibly small, and McCoy is a career minor-leaguer.

My opinion of McCoy, such as it is, is based on his work at AAA, not his spring stats.And my opinion is that we might look forward to a "Joe Inglett with speed" level of performance. In our situation, I'd certainly TRY him as the everyday guy if his D was adaquate, but that would simply be a "nothing to lose" flyer, not banking on his becoming a notable late-bloomer.

I agree with WillRain. There was something wrong with Janssen last year. He just wasn't the same pitcher. If early in the year we see enough evidence that he's back to the good Janssen I'd like to see him in the rotation. (Nevermind that I thought that fans wrote of Chacin too early also.)

McCoy hit .307 in Colorado Springs last year.  That park is actually at a higher elevation than Coors Field.  Probably the best hitters' park in the best hitters' league in the USA.  You have to make a major adjustment downward just to get an equivalent performance in the International league, at say, Syracuse.  Then you have to adjust down for the majors.  He'll be 29 on Friday.  I think people need to be tempering their enthusiasm for him.  I'd be pleasantly surprised if he hit .250.  He has no power at all, but at least he draws a few walks and can steal a base.

all the old-timers around here

But I'm still a new guy, right? Right, Mike?

I would certainly agree that some of the real old-timers, many of whom no longer hang out with us, seemed almost personally invested in Ricciardi's success or failure. I don't know if that really applies to Craig, though. But certainly, he wasn't pleased about the Anthopolous hire from Day One (he said so here at the time), and he sure doesn't think much of Beeston, does he?

He'll be 29 on Friday.  I think people need to be tempering their enthusiasm for him. 

I keep reading comments like that on this board and I don't get it. I don't see people saying they expect him to him to be an allstar or anything ridiculous.  I think it's fair to want to see what he can do. What do the Jays have to lose by giving him a chance? If he can play solid defense and get on base at a 35 percent of the time I would be thrilled. If not, I won't lose sleep knowing that Gonzalez and McDonald have lost playing time. 

Magpie, you are old and new at once.  Like a better version of David Crombie, or Jean Chretien in 1993.

Really truly?

I hate to be a debbie downer, but this seems incredibly optimistic.  On what basis do you see 4 guys, none of whom had any chance of starting 2010 in the big leagues, and only two of whom even have a prayer of being up with the team this year (remote, at best, in my books), being the core 4 by the end of next year?

I will be thrilled if 2 of those guys are in the rotation next year.  You've also forgotten about Morrow.  If we have Marcum, Romero, Morrow, Cecil and one of those 4 by Sept 11, we'll be in good shape, no?

by September 11

I wonder how often the September 11 for September 1 typo occurs.  9/11 has been imprinted on the consciousness.
As for the substance, I've said it before.  Projecting which young pitcher will be good in 8 months or 2 years is very, very difficult.  The only thing that you can safely say is that the club is in good shape on the mound over the medium haul, as it is likely that 3-4 of the approximately 15 of the decent or better pitching prospects/young pitchers/recovering pitchers will be good in a couple of years. 

I'll go further than that. I predict that in two years, one of the rotation mainstays for the Jays will be someone who isn't in the organization at all right now. I also predict that at least one of the Jays' GYPs (Good Young Pitchers) will only achieve success once he moves to another team, and it could take him five years to put it together.

This isn't an orderly process!

McCoy hit .307 in Colorado Springs last year.  That park is actually at a higher elevation than Coors Field.  Probably the best hitters' park in the best hitters' league in the USA.  You have to make a major adjustment downward just to get an equivalent performance in the International league, at say, Syracuse.

What sort of downward adjustment to his walks should we make?  He isn't a power hitter.  Do we know the adjustments for singles, doubles, triples, hrs, and walks?  Or are we making a blind statement that PCL=hitters league, so McCoy must actually suck?

I've asked this before and nobody's responded - please tell me I don't have to research it myself.

Nah.  You don't need to do a translation.  You can look at his entire minor league record, and see that .270/.355/.360 is about par for the course at a neutral triple A level in his late 20s.  Inglett was a somewhat better hitter. 

McCoy is your classic utility player, but with the bonus that he draws some walks and has some speed.  One can dream about him being the next incarnation of Tony Phillips, but the match is not there. 

I've asked this before and nobody's responded - please tell me I don't have to research it myself.

I am also very curious about this. I would like to assume that his lack of power would mean there is less of a downward adjustment, at least to batting average. He clearly doesn't have the power to take full advantage of what is most likely a massive outfield. I do know this about McCoy, I have seen him have a few terrific at bats against good major league pitchers this spring. I would assume based on the small sample I have seen, that his 400 OBP had a lot to do with him wearing down pitchers. I also have seen him make some plays on defense that would lead me to think he has a chance of being an above average defensive shortstop; granted I have seen that much. Sorry for being redundant, but I want to see what he can do at the major league level.

 

Jordan Bastian's reporting that Cecil and Roenicke have been sent down and the rotation will be set in the following order:  Marcum, Tallet, Romero, Morrow, Eveland.

One has to question the wisdom behind placing Tallet 2nd in the rotation.  I personally would've rathered see Cecil break camp with the big club with tallet being moved to the bullpen and accardo sent back to Vegas.

I'm not crazy about the rotation. Having Tallet or Cecil in the pen, where they could pitch 3-4 innings if a starter exits early, could be very valuable to a young rotation with some control issues, particularly in April.

But it's not worth stressing out about right now. I imagine we'll see at least a couple demotions or injuries before the end of April.

One has to question the wisdom behind placing Tallet 2nd in the rotation.  I personally would've rathered see Cecil break camp with the big club with tallet being moved to the bullpen and accardo sent back to Vegas.

My guess - I asked Bastian on Twitter but no response yet - is that that reflects the off day on 4/6

in other words, Tallet will be skipped, which makes Romero the effective #2 (and the home opener starter) and that Tallet will then have to be stuck in between those two in subsequent turns through the rotation (hopefully only until McGowan or someone forces their hand)

I also predict that at least one of the Jays' GYPs (Good Young Pitchers) will only achieve success once he moves to another team, and it could take him five years to put it together.

And just watch all the hang wringing over how Brett Cecil, 30-year old Cy Young winner for the Cardinals, after recovering from a torn labrum, punctured lung, ruptured spleen and a bad case of dropsy, should not have been so casually tossed aside by the Jays despite him not having pitched effectlvely for three seasons.

If people really are interested in stuff like how Coors Field and other high elevation parks affect a hitter or pitcher, you should read The Physics Of Baseball.  One of the most interesting books I've ever read.  The ball not only travels farther at high elevation, but it travels FASTER because of the thin air.  That means that outfielders have less time to get to fly balls and a lot more balls will fall in.  Then you throw in the fact that they have to play farther back because the ball travels farther, and you have a serious problem.  All kinds of stuff falls in that wouldn't in a normal park.  I remember seeing a Blue Jays game in Colorado a few years ago, and the Rockies must have had about 7 or 8 bloops and Texas Leaguers fall in front of the outfielders.

As far as McCoy is concerned, I'm anxious to see how he does, too.  I think he can help the team.  Just saying that people shouldn't be expecting him to hit .290 or OBA .380 cause it ain't gonna happen over any significant number of AB's.  But it's always nice to add a guy who can chip in a bit without giving up a player.  Eveland might be a real nice pickup at no player cost - I'm looking forward to seeing him. 

What's the over/under on the number of starting pitchers the Jays use this year.  9?  10?  11???  12?????