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The Blue Jays have to replace some starter pitcher innings this season. You probably knew that.

Four of the men we can reasonably expect to see pitching out of the Toronto rotation this season were here last year. They are Ricky Romero, Mark Rzepczynski, Brian Tallet, who will open the season in the rotation. Presumably either the first or second call for help will go to Brett Cecil. These guys started more than half of the team's games last season and collectively fought the league to a draw:
GS      IP    H    R    ER   BB  SO   W  L  ERA
82    471.2  509  261  249  209 370  29 25  4.75
I think the team will be hoping to get a little more than 82 starts out of this Gang of Four, but it's hard to fathom a scenario where these guys start as many as 100 games.

Anyway, we're left with the 80 games started in 2009 by pitchers who are extremely unlikely to start any games for Toronto in 2010. This work will be picked up, first of all, by Shaun Marcum and Brandon Morrow. We may see Dana Eveland and, eventually, Dustin McGowan step into the job. And here's what they have to replace.

GS     IP    H    R    ER   BB   SO   W   L   ERA
80   492.3  533  271  250  146  404  29  32  4.57

In this the winter of my discontent, it's comforting to remember that it's not just Roy Halladay's starts that must be replaced. It's also the starts accumulated by Scott Richmond, David Purcey, Casey Janssen, Bobby Ray, Jesse Litsch, Brad Mills, and Brian Burres. Those seven men started 48 games for the 2009 Blue Jays, and it didn't go well.

GS     IP    H    R    ER   BB   SO   W   L  ERA
48   253.3  299  189  176  111  196  12  22  6.25
You gotta take your silver linings where ever you can find 'em, right?

Posted by Magpie on Wednesday, March 24 2010 @ 12:37 AM EDT.
A Note on the Rotation | 23 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
TamRa - Wednesday, March 24 2010 @ 01:05 AM EDT (#212643) #
Exactly. I made the observation early in the off-season when someone was saying "who's gonna replace doc's innings?"

If Marcum and Morrow got 30 apeice and McGowan got 20 that would be that and I'd wager their collective ERA had a good chance of being better than 4.75.

Of course Mcgowan might yet fizzle out...and we might see Eveland or some such underpreform...but we might also see Drabek come fast, or someone like Mills or Ray surprise us too.

If you look at the 82 that the other guys started last year, it is - IMO - Tallet we have to worry about skewing the numbers downward. but, again, give romero 30 and Zep 25-30 and Cecil 20-25 and you have 75-85 starts that might collectively be on par with last years work.

Barring serious injury:

Marcum - 32
Romero - 32
Morrow - 27
Zep - 27
Cecil - 20
Tallet - 8
McGowan - 16 (alternately, Mills, Drabek, et al)

that should produce pretty decent result collectively. Of course, a big injury then skews this curve in a direction I wouldn't like.


[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Wednesday, March 24 2010 @ 02:16 AM EDT (#212644) #
it is - IMO - Tallet we have to worry about skewing the numbers downward.

That makes sense. It was Tallet (7-8, 5.41) who skewed the Gang of Four's numbers downwards last year.
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katman - Wednesday, March 24 2010 @ 06:22 AM EDT (#212645) #
McGowan and Purcey both need to be in the bullpen, for different reasons.

I do not believe McGowan's body is durable enough to be a starter, and wasting his stuff in a flame-out career would border on criminal.

Purcey needs to throw fewer pitches, for strikes, and a power bullpen lefty is always valuable. I see him doing that in Syracuse to open this season.
[ Reply to This ]
Flex - Wednesday, March 24 2010 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#212646) #
I see him doing that in Syracuse to open this season.

You see Purcey being traded to the Washington Nationals?
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John Northey - Wednesday, March 24 2010 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#212647) #
I see Tallet as a placeholder until a kid is ready to step in. Basically he is the veteran inning eater for $5-10 million everyone was hoping the Jays would sign. Not as good as some, but in truth all we need him to do is eat a few innings until Cecil, Drabek, Stewart and other kids are ready.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, March 24 2010 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#212650) #
What John said.  There was no discontent from me this winter.  If the Hechevarria signing comes through, I'd give AA an A- on the off-season (with the minus resulting from the Gregg/McDonald situations).

I am taking the long view.  The pitchers I like most are Marcum, Cecil and Zep.  For somebody else, it might be Romero, Morrow and Stewart.  Another might like McGowan, Drabek and Jenkins. A fourth could also like Litsch and Mills.   What I would hope to see by the end of the year is the emergence of two of them as very good pitchers and two as useful pitchers, and it really doesn't matter to me which ones do, and if the team wins 72 games with a team ERA of 4.85 this year, it won't bother me in the least.

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85bluejay - Wednesday, March 24 2010 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#212651) #

Just a note - A site called project prospect has a rather sobering assessment of Drabek as a

prospect - he may need more time & have a lower ceiling- interesting read.

 

I would like to see Brad Mills get a long look , a solid inningseater at the back of the rotation & for now I

still like McG. as a starter, the jays should move forward very conservatively.

[ Reply to This ]
Hodgie - Wednesday, March 24 2010 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#212652) #

Read the article about Drabek and while it is always nice to see video footage of his mechanics it is a little presumptuous to draw any meaningful conclusions after watching 4IP in a Minor League spring training game.

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Spifficus - Wednesday, March 24 2010 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#212653) #
McGowan hasn't done anything to indicate he can bounce back quick enough to be a reliever - don't forget, he wasn't throwing side sessions between his simulated games. He still needs to go through the rehabilitation process, after which the Jays can assess what they have. It just feels premature to say what role he'd be best suited for.
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christaylor - Wednesday, March 24 2010 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#212655) #
For Elijah Dukes! Oh, wait...
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Mike Green - Wednesday, March 24 2010 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#212656) #
Apropos of nothing, the sports section of the print version of today's Globe and Mail had a short description of the lineup that could be bought for the $23 million that Mauer signed for and the WAR of the team.  Obviously, the article doesn't really provide enough context to give much meaning to the comparison, but that WAR was used is something new for my daily paper...The times they are changing. 
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Mick Doherty - Wednesday, March 24 2010 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#212658) #
They can't be changing THAT much if what you post still warrants a Bob Dylan lyric!
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Mike Green - Wednesday, March 24 2010 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#212659) #
Yahoo describes things and people as "trending now".  Can we say that WAR is "trending now"?  Do real people actually use the phrase?  (insert usual complaint about aging)

Incidentally, the Dylan lyric included "a-changing"...the omission of "a" obviously speaks of the simpler times we are in!
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Spicol - Wednesday, March 24 2010 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#212660) #

In that context, trending means that a wave of people are referencing it on social networks, especially Twitter.

But please, continue your aged rant. It's still a ridiciulous use of the word.

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Mike Green - Wednesday, March 24 2010 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#212661) #
Thanks for the translation, Spicol.  A medium aimed at communication in 144 character bite-sized chunks is obviously not the place those with an appetite for a Magpievian data table.  Now that I come to think of it, Twitter might be the source of the winter of his discontent.  I guess some old person has already noted that tweeting is for the birds.
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Mick Doherty - Wednesday, March 24 2010 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#212663) #

MG,

Tyms R chngn ...

Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your pen
=
Cum wrtrs n crtcs
Who c wit d pen

[ Reply to This ]
Matthew E - Wednesday, March 24 2010 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#212665) #
Cum wrtrs n crtcs
Who c wit d pen

Lhude sing cuccu!
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Wednesday, March 24 2010 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#212666) #
@Jays10

Fr da lsr now
wil b l8r 2 win

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Magpie - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 12:27 AM EDT (#212668) #
I do not tweet, myself. It seems somehow unbecoming to one of my advanced years and increasing gravity.

I am, however, a follower. Of a goodly number of twits....

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Mike Green - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#212671) #
Who knew then that Dylan's "Masters of WAR" was an ode to Tom Tango, Rally, et al.?  The man was a genius and a prophet!
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Gerry - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#212673) #

From BA:

Released: RHP Casey Fien, RHP Brian Justice, RHP Chase Lirette, RHP Brandon Magee, RHP Wade Townsend, LHP Davis Romero, LHP Nathan Starner, C Chris House

Davis Romero was a pretty successful pitcher for the Jays and had performed well at triple A and had a brief exposure to the major leagues.  He never seemed to be embarced by the Jays.  He is a very small pitcher but that doesn't preclude success.  Brandon Magee was a fourth round pick in 2006 but he could never succeed above A ball and was hit by injuries.  Magee was a sinker, slider pitcher and didn't miss many bats.  Wade Townsend is a former first round pick who the Jays signed in the off-season but obviously they didn't like what they saw.  Chase Lirette had some early success but a serious injury set him back and he never was able to replicate his initial form.  Nate Starner was a starter reliever but he is another sinker, slider pitcher.  Those types of pitchers, think Jamie Vermilyea or Mike MacDonald, tend to be successful in A ball but stall in AA.

Chris House is an Australian catcher who played in A ball but never hit enough to move up.

From my perspective Davis Romero is the biggest surprise in these releases.  Because of his ability to start and relieve he had value to an organization.  But the Jays have a lot of relief pitchers trying for the major league bullpen and they also have pitchers like Danny Farquhar, Willie Collazo, Sean Henn, Rommie Lewis, Sean Stidfole, Lance Broadway, Jonah Bayliss, Bubbie Buzachero and Ray Gonzalez battling for AAA jobs.

[ Reply to This ]
jerjapan - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#212679) #

Gerry, some interesting names on that list ... I remember thinking Startner / Lirette / Romero all had AAAA / 6th/ 7th man in the pen potential.

I do think that releasing Romero speaks well to the bullpen depth accumulated by AA.

[ Reply to This ]
rtcaino - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#212682) #
I was surprised by House, given that he just turned 21. Seems early to be giving up on a catching prospect, but I guess that's what they hired all those scouts for.
[ Reply to This ]
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